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Tom Curtis at 14:49 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
I note that Chris G @17 more than adequately answers Charlie A @12.
I will note that one of the most damning facts about critics of Cook et al is that they do not employ one of the best, and well known, surveys of the opinions of climate scientists as a counter argument. Bray and von Storch (2010) explicitly asked a broad range of climate scientists, "How convinced are you that most of recent or near future climate change is, or will be, a result of anthropogenic causes?" (Question 21). On a scale of 1-7, with 1 being "not at all convinced" and 7 being "very much convinced", 83.51% responded 5 or higher, while only 11.081% responded 3 or less.
I think this survey question poorly framed. IMO, somebody who thinks that there is a 5% probability that it will rain today and a 95% probability that it will not is not "a little convinced that it will rain". Rather, they are mostly convinced that it will not. Therefore, as the survey question is asked, anybody who responds with a value greater than 1 is at least 50/50 on the proposition, and likely much greater. Of course, people understand the context of survey questions, and will often treat the middle value as 50/50 even when the logic of the question suggests they should not. As a result, and as a result of the significant disagreement with other relevant surveys, I consider the poor framing of the question to have biased the result low.
I must recognize, however, that the 83.5% is a defensible position. Somebody arguing that Cook et al over represents the "consensus" in that Bray and von Storch show the consensus of actual scientists (as opposed to papers) to be 83.5% has an arguable case. Despite this, the fake "skeptics" do not argue this case for it would require admiting an 83.5% agreement the claim that most recent or near future warming was or will be the result of anthropogenic factors. Worse, it requires recognizing that only 1.351% of climate scientists are certain that this is wrong.
Even more troubling for the fake "skeptics", however, is that 78.92% of climate scientists are significantly convinced (>4 reponse) that "...climate change poses a very serious and dangerous threat to humanity" (question 22). "Humanity" is vague as to whether the threat is merely to very large numbers (hundreds of millions, or billions) of humans, or whether it is a species level threat, ie, a threat of extinction.
It is a difficult task you set yourself when you attempt to obfusticate and confuse the public on climate science. You must thow over even reasonable arguments that appear to support your position, for using them will let too many facts out of the bag and loose you any thoughtful people.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:39 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
jwhite100@ 20.
Please state your point(s) in another way. I'm not sure I know what you are trying to say.
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dana1981 at 14:34 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Charlie A @7, to quote myself from above,
"The IPCC position (humans causing most global warming) was represented in our categories 1 and 7, which include papers that explicitly endorse or reject/minimize human-caused global warming, and also quantify the human contribution. Among the relatively few abstracts (75 in total) falling in these two categories, 65 (87%) endorsed the consensus view. Among the larger sample size of author self-rated papers in categories 1 and 7 (237 in total), 228 (96%) endorsed the consensus view that humans are causing most of the current global warming."
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:24 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Bjorn Lomborg is definitely not a climate scientist. He is not even a reasonable economist.
He has published comparisons of the future costs faced by future generations vs. the benefit/costs of today's generation and claims that a current generation allowed to pursue its best present for itself will develop a better future for later generations, even though the free action of the free market has never shown any inclination to do that, except by purest accident.
His evaluations overstate the "costs" that the current generations would suffer (actually not costs at all, just less benefit) if they diligently reduced their activities that create admitted negative impacts on the future. He then understates the future costs by optimistically evaluating future consequences and limiting the consequences to the ones faced by the most fortunate, and only evaluating "human related costs...no thought at all about any other life on our planet.
He then applies the famous "Net Present Value” discounting of those optimistically low future costs "because that is what you do" and compares that number with the lost benefit he determined for the current generation.
The fundamental concept of the evaluation is fatally flawed even without the distortions he incorporates. His evaluation basically says a current generation can create added costs a future generation will have to deal with as long as they think the benefit they would lose by not creating those future costs would exceed the costs they think they are creating.
These are not the thoughts of a rational reasonable person. And yet even the US government uses that same type of analysis when determining the net benefit of something they are considering allowing to be done, like a new pipeline.
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Tom Curtis at 14:12 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Charlie A @11, you cannot agree with me that Cook et al survey is difficult to interpret consistently, for I neither said, nor believe anything like that. Rather, it is impossible to interpret it consistently if you insist "AGW" refers to a theory that humans caused some, but potentially less than 50% of recent temperature rise in any rating category (1-7); but it is trivially easy to interpret it consistently if you interpret "AGW" as refering to a theory that humans caused >50% of recent warming. That you insist on retaining an interpretation of AGW which makes a consistent interpretation of the survey impossible despite the fact that the consistent interpretation is the most natural shows you are playing rhetorical games rather than making genuine inquiries.
It is easy to show that the theory endorsed by ratings 1-3 is that humans have caused >50% of global warming. The most damning evidence so far as the fake "skeptics" go is that they nearly universally so interpreted it while the survey of authors was being conducted, and in their initial attempts to criticize the results of Cook et al. There sudden fervour for an alternative interpretation gives a clear mark of how honest they are in this debate.
Further, in both the introductory remarks in the survey of authors, and in each of rating categories 2 and 3, authors are asked if their paper explicitly states, or implies that "humans are causing global warming". Natural interpretation of statements about causes requires that they be relevant. If, when asked what caused the collapse of a bridge, for example, you respond by describing a factor that only contributed 10% to the collapse, while ignoring more dominant factors, you would rightly be regarded as lying by omission. Consequently, the natural interpretation of those instructions asks whether or not humans are the dominant cause of global warming (which in context refers to the warming in the late twentieth century).
This linguistic convention is very standard, and is why fake "skeptics" had no difficulty in interpreting the survey exactly as I do until it became rhetorically convenient to suggest another (unwarranted) interpretation.
Finally, the most compelling evidence relates to the logic of the various responses. It is impossible to interpret the scale (1-7) as a ranking in terms of "percentage of endorsement" where that is a ranking in terms of the percentage contribution to recent warming. If we attempt to do so, we must rank 1 as >50%, 7 as <50%, and all other values as being in the range >50% to <50%. Further, we must interpret endorsement as indicating greater than a particular value, and rejection as indicating less than. I await any attempt to interpret the scale using these restrictions that does not show ranks 2 and 3 as endorsing >50% anthropogenic warming.
The alternative interpretation is that the differences between ranks 1-3 and ranks 5-7 is not in the level of causation, but in the explicitness of the endorsement. All of 1-3 endorse >50% anthropogenic warming, but papers rated 1 are most explicit in doing so, whereas in papers rated 3 the endorsement relies on implication. The difference between ratings 1 and 2 is that supplying numbers or quantifiers removes doubt about the endorsement - not that they endorse different things.
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jwhite100 at 14:11 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
If there really is a 97% consensus, it make the conspiracy among scientists many deniers believe in all the more complicated. I think too complicated to be even possibly true. Its too bad they don't just be patient wait to see if the science proves them right, instead of engaging in smears.
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Chris G at 14:06 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Charlie, one last thing, regarding : "Do you agree that a paper that states that most of recent warming has an anthropogenic cause would be classified as a Category 1 paper?"
You can't do attribution without a quantification and a model to test that quantification, and the survey of papers was not limited to papers on models. So, even assuming some agreement on what "most" means, that was not the question this paper attempted to answer. Feel free to conduct a survey papers on climate models, and let us know what the percentage fall in the category of agreeing that "most" is caused by humans.
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Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Charlie A - So by your understanding an abstract discussion the importance of carbon sequestration in mitigating climate change (implying sequestration of CO2 to reduce climate change), with CO2 increases coming from anthropogenic emissions (more evidence than needed) is in some fashion not implicitly stating that that AGW is the major cause of recent climate change?
Please, explain - I would love to see how you justify that claim.
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Chris G at 13:49 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Charlie,
How is your reading comprehension?
Tom said, "...it is not possible to interpret the Cook et al survey consistently...without interpreting "AGW" as being a theory that implies that at least 50% of recent warming...". (my emphasis)
and you respond with, "I agree that it is difficult to interpret the Cook et al survey consistently such that each rating category is unique. That is one of the several flaws..."
Charlie, you appear to be deliberately trying to obfuscate. You are agreeing with something Tom did not say. Especially since the numbers you ask for at 2 make as much sense as asking, "How many of the papers which took no position took position A?" Yours is a nonsensical question, not because the answer can't be determined from the published paper (which it can be), but because the answer has no meaning.
Further, Tom answers your question regarding, "proportion of climate scienctists", and you counter with statements about articles. Scientists != articles. You led Tom into answering a questing about the consensus amongst scientists, and then countered with statements about articles.
In the end, what difference does it make? Any paper in categories 1-3, in conjunction with knowledge of climate change impacts, can only be interpreted to support the position that humans are better off attempting to mitigate climate change than not. I suppose that opens the door for another round of "It's not bad.", but we've been there before, and that topic is orthogonal to the topic of "Are we causing climate change?".
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Charlie A at 13:45 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
#13 DSL asks "perhaps you can point to the specific paper working on sequestration"
the sequestration example is quoted directly from the Cook paper as an example of an abstract statement that would cause a paper to be classified as part of the 97% consensus.
See Table 2, which gives an example of category 3, part of the 97% consensus as " ... Carbon sequestration in the soil is important for mitigating climate change"
That is the full quote from the Cook paper, including the ellipsis.
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Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Charlie A - If you disagree with those abstract classifications (asserting, as you seem to, that the raters for Cook et al 2013 somehow mistook papers indicating a small anthropogenic contribution as fully endorsing AGW as the primary cause, despite clear protocols and repeated statements by the authors as to their criteria), then I have a suggestion for you in order to prove your case.
Check the data yourself.
Go to the ratings page, and run through a hundred or two abstracts, rating them yourself as to endorsing/rejecting a consensus opinion of a majority contribution to global warming by AGW. Then look at your statistics - feel free to ignore the 'implicit' categories, if you like - and see just how many of the abstracts expressing an opinion endorse the consensus. I've tried it; it should require only the investment of a couple of hours to rate 100 or so.
Because quite frankly the multiple attempts to reinterpret this paper and dismiss its results, like yours, are both tiresome and completely evidence-free. The data is sitting right there for the review. If you don't, well, to quote Christopher Hitchens,
What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
Lacking evidence to the contrary, Cook et al 2013 (as well as Doran et al, Anderegg, Oreskes, and similar studies) stands as correct, and the vast majority of people in the field agree that AGW is the primary cause of recent climate change.
No evidence? Then you have no case, just rather empty rhetoric.
Moderator Response:[DB] Fixed text per request.
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Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Charlie A: "But if you look closely at what the paper actually says instead of how 3rd parties describe it, you will find that even a paper that just discusses method of carbon sequestration is considered to be part of the 97% that "endorses AGW". Clearly such a paper is NOT making a claim that greater than 1/2 of the observed warming is anthropogenic."
Few of the papers made that explicit claim, with no surprise. Only a relative handful are attribution studies. Implication, then, becomes necessary (unless you'd rather the consensus be based only on attribution studies . . . in which case we get to stop nitpicking and move on to more serious topics, because your pinhole poking project won't have anything to work with). If a paper is discussing carbon sequestration, what is the likelihood that it's simply an exercise that has no real world application? It's much more likely that the paper is examining mitigation of the developing situation. If the anthro component is not greater than 50%, then the likelihood of there actually being a problem is greatly reduced vs. the current range of attribution (75%-200%, depending on the method and period). Perhaps you can point to the specific paper working on sequestration. I suspect that it probably says nothing about attribution but does make the assumption that there is a rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 and that it is the basis of a serious, developing problem. How else would such a paper be justified for inclusion in a major journal? Given current data, the only situation in which sequestration is seriously considered is one in which CO2 continues to rise at an unprecedented rate (Honisch et al. 2012), a situation that requires the human component to have been and continue to be greater--much greater--than 50%.
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Arctic sea ice has recovered
I doubt if climate models can explain the 2013 regression toward the mean, dadown. Why? Because big CMIP5 regime climate models aren't really designed for short-term projections. Modeling hasn't done well with Arctic sea ice in general. Note that we're a good 60 years ahead of the CMIP3 ensemble model mean for extent. In other words, Arctic sea ice could stabilize for half a century and the ice would still be ahead of its projected loss.
I'm curious, though: what does the 2013 melt season mean to you? I mean, what conclusions do you draw from it?
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Charlie A at 12:43 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
@Tom Curtis, #8, You say "So, in answer to your final question, the proportion of climate scienctists who agree with the claim that most (>50%) of recent warming has an anthropogenic cause is almost certainly >90%, and probably greater than 96%."
1. Do you agree that a paper that states that most of recent warming has an anthropogenic cause would be classified as a Category 1 paper?
2. What percentage of the 12,000 abstracts reviewed were classified as Category 1?
That is a very basic, simple question that should have been clearly disclosed in the Cook paper, but was not. Perhaps you have some inside info and can report the actual category breakdown before Categories 1, 2, and 3 were merged.
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Charlie A at 12:34 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
I agree that it is difficult to interpret the Cook et al survey consistently such that each rating category is unique. That is one of the several flaws in the paper that make interpretation of what the paper says somewhat vague. But if you look closely at what the paper actually says instead of how 3rd parties describe it, you will find that even a paper that just discusses method of carbon sequestration is considered to be part of the 97% that "endorses AGW". Clearly such a paper is NOT making a claim that greater than 1/2 of the observed warming is anthropogenic.
In looking at the paper itself, http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/pdf/1748-9326_8_2_024024.pdf , Table 2 shows that there were 8 rating categories (counting 4a and 4b as two).
Category 1 is "Explicitly states that humans are the primary cause of recent global warming"
Category 2 is "Explicitly states humans are causing global warming or refers to anthropogenic global warming/climate change as a known fact" and gives as an example "‘Emissions of a broad range of greenhouse gases of varying lifetimes contribute to global climate change"
The paper then merges categories and never discloses what percentage of papers were evaluated as Category 1.
In fact, the merged "endorses AGW" category includes category 3: "Implies humans are causing global warming. E.g.,research assumes greenhouse gas emissions cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause", with the example of "‘. . . carbon sequestration in soil is important for mitigating global climate change"
So, as I read the article, almost any paper that discusses mitigation was considered to be "endorsing AGW".
Clearly, a category 3 paper is NOT in any way stating an opinion that the majority of observed warming is anthropogenic.
=============================================
If you look at the SI, you will note that in Table 5, the comparison with Schulte (2008) only results for Categories 2 through 6 are reported. Category 1,
As for self rating, those are available at http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/media/erl460291datafile.txt
While there are a few category 1 self classifications, they are rare. The self classifications definitely do not support Tom Curtis's statement of "...the proportion of climate scienctists who agree with the claim that most (>50%) of recent warming has an anthropogenic cause is almost certainly >90%,".
Don't take my word for it. Go to the data file and see for yourself how few papers are category 1 --- and this is in the self-selected sample of climate scientists that chose to respond.
explicit statement that humans have caused the majority of warming, is omitted.
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Treesong2 at 12:16 PM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Tom Curtis @7, a nonclimatic comment on 'most (>50%) of recent warming':
For many people (like you), 'most' means 'more than half'. For many others (like me), it means 'the great majority'--with a fuzzy boundary, maybe around 70%, depending on what the most is most of. When the difference is pointed out, people from both sides are often incredulous that anyone could honestly hold to the other meaning. See http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=2516, which argues that experiments show even us great-majoritarians are more-than-halfers if we'd only admit it.
The point of which is to say that when talking about 'most of recent warming' (or anything else), it's good to add numbers to clarify, as you did. Kudos.
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Bert from Eltham at 11:57 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Q. Why do deniers on facing the consensus of 97% of scientists on the cause of Global Warming have a the same look as a puppy who has had his nose rubbed in his own excrement?
A. They both think you owe them an explanation about something incomprehensible to them both!
That is why both still prefer cherry picking red herrings. The denier will seize on any distraction and the puppy will simply chase its tail or any other suitable smelling bit.
Disclaimer. Rubbing you puppies nose in his own excrement will not work to house train it. It only makes you feel better.
Bert
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Tom Curtis at 11:23 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Charlie A @7, first, I see no indication at the first link that the consensus is that humans cause "some" global warming.
Second, it is not possible to interpret the Cook et al survey consistently such that each rating category is unique (ie, so that papers do not fall into to rating categories) without interpreting "AGW" as being a theory that implies that at least 50% of recent warming (typically ascribed as the last 50 years, or since 1950) has an anthropogenic cause. As surveys should be interpreted as consistent if they can be, that means Cook et al find that 97% of papers discussing the issue endorse the theory that >50% of recent warming has been anthropogenic in origin.
Suggestions to the contrary are primarilly inspired by rhetorical needs rather than analysis. This is seen in that:
a) The initial response of so-called "skeptics" was to argue that papers had been incorrectly classified as endorsing the the consensus, when the papers involved all acknowledge that increasing CO2 will cause some warming. That initial response is inconsistent with the same "skeptics" later claims that to "endorse AGW" means just to endorse that increased CO2 will cause some warming; and
b) The response in self rating showed a higher tendency to rate the papers as "rejecting AGW", than the abstract ratings, thus showing the authors of "skeptical" papers interpreted the "rejection of AGW" as being consistent with accepting some warming from increased CO2.
It was only when initial rhetorical attacks on Cook et al failed to get traction that "skeptics" suddenly "discovered" that everybody endorses AGW. Interestingly, this same rhetorical tactic has been used on every prior paper showing a consensus in support of AGW.
So, in answer to your final question, the proportion of climate scienctists who agree with the claim that most (>50%) of recent warming has an anthropogenic cause is almost certainly >90%, and probably greater than 96%. We know this not just from Cook et al, but from a variety of other studies examining the consensus.
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michael sweet at 11:00 AM on 10 September 2013Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
Doug,
Your post is typical of deniers who slander working scientists. Dr. Hansen received his PhD working on the atmosphere of Venus. Perhaps you can suggest how to learn better about atmospheres than to study atmospheres?
Dr. Pachauri has also been involved in Climate Change study at the top levels of science for decades. Both of these men have dedicated decades to working on Climate Change and have long lists of published papers on the topic. You will be better received on WUWT where they believe BS like your post.
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dadown at 10:41 AM on 10 September 2013Arctic sea ice has recovered
It will be intersting to see if the climate models can explain thr 60% growth in artic ice this summer:
Moderator Response:[DB] Debunked here.
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Charlie A at 08:28 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
What _exactly_ is the 97% consensus that is agreed upon? The first link in this article it appears that the consensus is simply that humans cause _some_ warming -- not quantified, and definitely not explicitly greater than 1/2 of observed warming.
Does anybody know what level of consensus there is for the statement "Humans have caused greater than 1/2 of the observed warming since xxxxx date" ? (Pick any date).
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dana1981 at 08:05 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
chriskoz @1 - 0.08% is right. The difference is a factor of about 4 because while we had 65 abstracts in Category 1 (AGW > 50%), Monckton claims the number should have been in the 40s (and 10 abstracts were in Category 7, AGW < 50%).
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joeygoze9259 at 06:06 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Got it, thx. Follow on question - so then I assume the graph of Anthropogenic vs.Natural forcings only is going to look more like graph A vs. B?
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Doug Sorensen at 06:05 AM on 10 September 2013Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
StBarnabas wrote: "I am an astroparticle physicist by training and know how difficult real science is. I have great regard for my climate change colleagues and am bewildered by why scientists trained in other fields think they know the subject and can possibly use reputation to get amaturish work published."
Do you mean perhaps people like astrophysicist Dr. James Hansen? Or perhaps the Chairman of the IPCC, the economist Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri.
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Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
MThompson - Quite right, complete absorption at peak CO2 frequencies occurs with 10's of meters at sea level.
Those 10's of meters of gas then isotropically emit in the same spectra, a portion of which goes upwards to the next higher layer of gas, and so on, and so on, with the sum emission at each layer determined by atmospheric temperature. The effective emission altitude for CO2 is where the air (and GHGs) are thin enough that ~50% of the radiation emitted upwards makes it to space without absorption. And according to the atmospheric lapse rate, that is a cooler layer of air, emitting less radiation than warmer surface air.
The overall effect of the many emission/absorption events and the lapse rate is that there is less radiation from effective emission altitudes than from the surface, a lower effective emissivity of the Earth to space in IR, and hence a higher Earth surface temperature required (by the Stefan-Boltzmann relationship) to emit the energy from incoming sunlight than there would be without the greenhouse gasses - that higher temperature being the greenhouse effect in action.
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Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
joeygoze - Because natural forcings have over time declined; in the absence of anthropogenic factors the Earth would have cooled over the last century.
In other words, without offsetting from natural cooling, we would have instead warmed by over 0.9C, rather than the observed 0.7C over that time, due to anthropogenic forcing.
Modelled Anthropogenic + Natural forcings vs. Natural forcings only [Source]
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MThompson at 04:19 AM on 10 September 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
Phil, regarding comment 100:
Thanks for suggesting another course of reading and discussion. I looked over the article and a few of the comments in the myth: Is the CO2 effect saturated? as you suggested. That article is listed as "intermediate." I’m still working on the basics, and would like to continue to develop my understanding in the current discussion: Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere. In school they taught us to break down complex ideas into components, and then assemble the big picture. Once I have a good visualization of the interaction of the earth’s blackbody radiation and the greenhouse effect, I plan to work my way up to the other source of photons in the wavelength range that is related to v2 CO2 pumping.
So far, it seems to me that the earth’s blackbody radiation in the range 13-18 microns (770 to 560 cm-1) is indeed trapped by CO2 and doesn't get radiated to space, but does in fact cause warming by the v2 CO2*->CO2 transition through collisions with atmospheric gases. If I don’t quite have it right yet, then hopefully someone will help me improve my understanding.
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joeygoze9259 at 04:01 AM on 10 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Silly question? In figure 1, how is the % contribution from Humans higher than 100%? Not sure I am reading that graph right.
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Arctic Sea Ice Hockey Stick: Melt Unprecedented in Last 1,450 years
dvaytw - Kinnard et al 2011 (paper here) used ice cores, lake and ocean sediment cores, tree rings, and documentary evidence from the last 200 years.
The various proxies describing temperature, water vapor, ion and methane-sulphonate concentrations (tied to sea ice openness/windiness). etc., were calibrated against historic documented ice cover, and from that used to infer ice cover over the last 1450 years.
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Kevin C at 01:34 AM on 10 September 2013The Pacific Ocean fills in another piece of the global warming puzzle, and puzzles Curry
OK, there's a problem is estimating separate response functions from the different forcings. We basically have three types of forcing - anrthopogenic, solar and volcanic.
The solar response is probably small. The BEST attribution paper puts it at 0.03C solar cycle peak to peak, which is smaller than Hansen and much smaller than F&R. However the result is strongly dependent on the duration of the response function. That means that for the moment it's not a very good basis for deducing the response function.
The anthropogenic forcing is the biggest part of the signal. However it shows a roughly exponential increase over time. One problem in deconvoluting the temperature response from the forcings is that the deconvolution is singular for some classes of signal - linear and exponential functions included. We can't determine the shape of the response function from the anthropogenic response, because there are an infinite number of equally good solutions.
That leaves the volcanic signal (or potentially a combination of the three signals). Now if the volcanic response has a dip in the second decade due to reduced heat release through ENSO, then that should be at least partly mitigated by including the ENSO term in the model (maybe only partially because the actuall response might be non-linear, e.g. current ENSO times heat stored last decade). If non-linearity is not an issue, including the ENSO term would avoid the need to change the shape of the response function.
Further, I'm not sure I see a reason (unless we get into non-geographically-uniform forcings) for ENSO heat storage to respond differently to volcanoes than to other forcings.
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dvaytw at 01:02 AM on 10 September 2013Arctic Sea Ice Hockey Stick: Melt Unprecedented in Last 1,450 years
Hey fellas - in the Nature article, the abstract says:
"Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice..."Can anyone explain to me in simple language what that basically entails?
Also, I've asked before and so far still haven't heard an answer: is there a way to set the thread so I'll be emailed a notification if there's a response?
(Mod - please feel free to answer and delete this part of the post!)Moderator Response:[DB] "is there a way to set the thread so I'll be emailed a notification if there's a response?"
Not at the present time, sorry.
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StBarnabas at 22:10 PM on 9 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Agreed
I'm surprised ayone takes Monkton seriously given his track record. For anone who hasn't seen Potholer54 (Peter Hadfield's) excellent YouTube series on Monkton Monkton Bunkum Part 1 and following part 2 to 5 etc. I would strongly recommend as a masterclass in how to demolish a climate change "Skeptic."
Chriskoz I think you are right about this being Monkton's first peer reviewed journal.
Sean
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chriskoz at 19:46 PM on 9 September 2013Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
Indeed, that shameful article in Science & Education (I'm not afraid to use such epithet given the fundamental statistical error they've apear to have made) is co-othored by Monckton himself. I think this is technically the first peer reviewed article by Monckton because I don't know of anything to his credit, please correct me if I'm wrong.
Minor glitch, Dana. Given Monckton's conclusion, that "the consensus is not 97%, but rather 0.3%", then it appears to be a typo in this sentence:
...based on Monckton's logic, only 0.08% of abstracts reject human-caused global warming.
The two numbers, suggesting the consensus set is just 4 times larger than the rejection set, do not make sense. I would rather expect the "rejection rate" to be 0.008% in this context.
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Phil at 19:41 PM on 9 September 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
MThomson,
you appear to inching toward this myth. If you are, you should take the conversation to that thread.
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Richard Lawson at 18:52 PM on 9 September 2013Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
Klaus @ 65, I think yet the answer to your questions 1 and 2 is to be found in the Sea Surface Temperature. This map of SST shows that the hurricanes appear, as expected, in the warmest areas :
Moderator Response:[DB] Reduced image width to 450. Click on image for larger version.
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tcflood at 07:55 AM on 9 September 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
MThompson at 98:
You are now getting into more detail than I have, but a few tens of meters is exactly the kind of distance that I have heard or seen mentioned many times.
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Leland Palmer at 05:59 AM on 9 September 2013Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
Two other probable massive methane releases from the oceanic methane hydrates- the Toarcian and Aptian oceanic anoxic events, of 180 and 120 million years ago:
Our analyses support the idea that both the Early Toarcian and Early Aptian isotopic curves were indicative of large episodic methane releases (5000 and 3000 Gt respectively) promoting warm ‘greenhouse’ conditions in the Mesozoic.
Massive methane release can casuse both ocean acidification and oceanic anoxia, according to numerous authors.
This hard scientific isotope ratio evidence of past probable methane releases from the hydrates cannot be safely ignored.
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spoonieduck at 04:43 AM on 9 September 2013There is no consensus
MA Rodger et al,
You are correct in assuming that my objection to the word "consensus" is individual and, even to me, my belaboring of the subject quickly becomes tedious.
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Leland Palmer at 03:40 AM on 9 September 2013Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
Here's another carbon isotope excursion, corresponding to the release of several trillion tons of carbon from the methane hydrates, from still another mass extinction hyperthermal event- the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM):
This one charts the C13/C12 isotope ratios in individual foraminifera, across the PETM event, and simultaneously charts the O18/O16 ratios, reflecting changes in ocean temperature.
The authors say the event was "geologically instantaneous". Other high resolution geological strata from Chinese formations calculate the duration of this first large probable methane release at less than 200 years.
Geologically instantaneous and "less than 200 years" set an upper bound for the duration of the event, but no lower bound. From this evidence, it is impossible to set a lower bound for the duration of the event. From this evidence, the event could have taken place in one year, or 200- nobody knows.
These are similar carbon isotope signatures of probable methane releases, from several large mass extinction events. The End Permian was about 250 million years ago. The End Triassic was about 200 million years ago. The PETM was about 50 million years ago. Each one corresponds to the release of several trillion tons of carbon from the hydrates.
The hard scientific evidence of past carbon isotope excursions and associated mass extinctions cannot be safely ignored.
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Leland Palmer at 02:28 AM on 9 September 2013Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
Here's another apparent mass methane injection event- the End Triassic. The authors of this paper claim that this event is best explained by the injection of 12 trillion tons of carbon (16 trillion tons of methane) into the atmosphere by a release of methane from the oceanic methane hydrates:
Atmospheric Carbon Injection Linked to End-Triassic Mass Extinction
Notice again the large carbon isotope excursion on the left, and the disappearance or loss of diversity of fossil groups on the right.
The authors conclude:
The end-Triassic mass extinction (~201.4 million years ago), marked by terrestrial ecosystem turnover and up to ~50% loss in marine biodiversity, has been attributed to intensified volcanic activity during the break-up of Pangaea. Here, we present compound-specific carbon-isotope data of long-chain n-alkanes derived from waxes of land plants, showing a ~8.5 per mil negative excursion, coincident with the extinction interval. These data indicate strong carbon-13 depletion of the end-Triassic atmosphere, within only 10,000 to 20,000 years. The magnitude and rate of this carbon-cycle disruption can be explained by the injection of at least ~12 × 103
gigatons of isotopically depleted carbon as methane into the atmosphere. Concurrent vegetation changes reflect strong warming and an enhanced hydrological cycle. Hence, end-Triassic events are robustly linked to methane-derived massive carbon release and associated climate change.Notice that the apparent amount of carbon injected, 12 trillion tons, is right in line with Dickens' estimate of worldwide methane hydrate inventory of 5 to 20 trillion tons of carbon- it makes Dicken's group estimates seem a little low, in fact.
Notice that the amount of carbon injected is several times that of Archer's estimate of roughly 0.7-1.2 trillion tons of carbon in the modern methane hydrates. So, Archer's estimates seem low, as do those of Milkov. By the way, Milkov worked for British Petroleum at the time he made his estimates - his original scientific paper acknowledges this.
But the End Triassic did not totally deplete the methane hydrates, very likely. Some modern hydrate deposits are very deep, and are not in high salt sediments. So, to me, this suggests that Klauda and Sandler's estimates of 74.4 trillion tons of carbon are likely closer to correct. Our recent series of ice ages have lowered ocean temperatures and expanded the methane hydrate stability zone.
From Gerald Dickens:
The total mass of carbon stored as CH4 in present-day marine gas hydrates has been estimated numerous times using different approaches as reviewed in several papers (Dickens, 2001b; Milkov, 2004; Archer, 2007). Prior to 2001, several
estimates converged on 10 000 Gt, and this “consensus mass” (Kvenvolden, 1993) was often cited in the literature. However, the convergence of estimates was fortuitous because different authors arrived at nearly the same mass but with widely varying assumptions; an appropriate range across the studies was 5000–20 000 Gt (Dickens, 2001b). In the last ten years, estimates have ranged from 500-2500 Gt (Milkov,
2004), ∼700–1200 Gt (Archer et al., 2009), and 4–995 Gt (Burwicz et al., 2011) to 74 400 Gt (Klauda and Sandler, 2005). The latter is almost assuredly too high (Archer, 2007). The others are probably too lowWe don't know how much methane is in the hydrates. The higher estimates are favored, in my opinion.
We don't know how rapidly methane will be released from the hydrates. But methane hydrates are a form of water ice- and ice melts when heated.
We know that some high salt deposits probably capable of releasing methane rapidly in response to temperature changes exist.
We know that a series of mass extinction events appear to be tied to massive methane releases, according to the carbon isotope ratio excursions.
We know that fossil fuel use generates greenhouse side effects that generate on the order of 100,000 times as much greenhouse heating as is received in useful heat of combustion.
These carbon isotope ratio excursions associated with several past mass extinctions are hard scientific evidence of past probable methane catastrophes, and cannot be safely ignored, in my opinion.
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MThompson at 02:17 AM on 9 September 2013Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
tcflood from comments 96 and 97,
Thanks. The explanations that you have given are helping me a lot. Now I see that without CO2 the earth’s blackbody radiation in the range of 13-18 microns (770 to 560 cm-1) would be able to escape to space, instead of pumping the v2 CO2* state and quickly distribute the energy into the local atmospheric vicinity.
Digging into this a little more, I found a nice calculator online that shows the earth’s BB radiation in the bandwidth of interest is about 3x1022 photons per second per square meter. I estimate that near the earth’s surface there are about 1x1022 C02 molecules per cubic meter. I have not yet had time to delve into the photoabsorption cross-section of CO2, but I’d guess that a few tens of meters would be sufficient to absorb all the earth's photons in the wavelength band of interest. This guess of course assumes that the lifetime of v2 C02* is much shorter than one second.
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michael sweet at 20:48 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Spoonie,
The nations of the world go over the IPCC summary document word by word and agree with all of them (for the fourth IPCC report the Bush administration agreed with the executive summary). How could you possibly have a greater consensus than that? Consensus does not mean unanimous agreement, it means the great majority agree. In this case, unanimity of nations is required, which is beyond consensus.
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Stephen Ferguson at 19:16 PM on 8 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
DSL @ 7. You make a fair point on a scientific/technical background being no safeguard against climate denial. Indeed, as you point out, some of the most entrenched individuals come from such a background. However my point was about the institutional failings, not individual.
The BBC has an immense responsibility to inform the public, which it does fantastically well most of the time. However, as Bob Ward points out; BBC senior management does not get that, by giving news bulletin airtime to contrarians in the name of reflecting all views and opinions in society, it is misleading the public into believing that there is no scientific consensus about the causes and consequences of climate change.
Their misunderstanding of the import of science, and refusal to take the formally sought expert advice of an eminent scientist, is testament to the unscientific monoculture that exists in senior echelons of that organisation.
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MA Rodger at 18:39 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Rob Honeycutt @570.
Best not to ask for definitions from Spoonieduck. It is evident from what Spoonieduck says that the meaning of the word "consensus" is not the issue here as it is dismissed as being "nebulous." There is also the complain that it is misused which is perhaps an interesting idea given the word is apparently so ill-defined. Spoonieduck is evidntly hostile to its use, certainly with regard to AGW.
I would suggest it is better to ask Spoonieduck what is meant by "There is little "concord" and there definitely is no "harmony" (concerning AGW theory." I though I was contradicting this statement when I wrote @566 that folk were "singing off the same hymn sheet." Spoonieduck's undoubted objections to this 'singing' are likely not to do with the quality of the voices but rather the actual song being sung.
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grindupBaker at 17:29 PM on 8 September 2013Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
Typo. "observed slow-down in global temperature" S.B. "observed slow-down in global surface/air temperature". "Global warming" is an increase in OHC. Ice melt is ~1% or so. Fresh water warming is most of the ~9% residual. Surface/air temperature increase is (1) a symptom of special interest to land-based and shallow ocean-based fauna & flora (2) the physical necessary to balance and stop warming (3) a pretty good proxy measure when averaged over decades or longer.
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scaddenp at 15:53 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
The emphasis on scientific consensus (the broad agreement within researchers actually doing the research) is that is what should guide public policy. It might turn out later that the consensus was wrong but the right decision for policy makers is go with the consensus. When stakes are high it is plumb foolish to do otherwise. Would you agree that policy makers should be mobilising resources if science said 75% chance of devastating asteroid strike - or wait till you have certainty but its too late to do anything meaningful.?
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Rob Honeycutt at 15:39 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Spoonieduck... Perhaps you can share with us what you believe the word "consensus" means.
I've always understood it to mean "a general agreement." It doesn't mean that absolutely everyone has the exact understanding about an issue. I would suggest that research shows there is a "broad" consensus on nearly all the basic tennets of AGW.
Science is, by its very nature, battlesome since it is constantly operating at the boundarlies of our understanding. The fights are over what we don't yet know. And they tend to be fierce and highly intellectual battles that are well beyond anyone who doesn't have a deep education in the particular subject.
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DSL at 14:29 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Chuckle, "AGW folk" is more ambiguous than "consensus." How do you define "AGW folk"?
I'll tell you what a consensus is. It's achieved when science moves on, when science stops targeting the proposition for testing. Very rarely, and the probability weakens with each passing year, do major theories that have reached the consensus state end up dying or going through major revision.
Science has moved well beyond the fundamental theory of the greenhouse effect. Its existence is no longer being targeted for research. It is instead now fodder for STEM undergrads. The fine details are still being worked out, yes (radiative transfer is not a simple thing). Sure, there are the Gerlich & Tscheuschners of the world, who attempt to mathturbate the effect away, ignoring the multitude of direct surface observations (not surface temp -- downwelling longwave radiation from the atmosphere) that confirm modeled expectations. You can try to defend them if you wish, but their existence falsifies the consensus of evidence in favor of the greenhouse effect no more than the latest nutjob moon landing hoax claim falsifies the theory that humans have been to the moon. Again, without solid evidence and a coherent physical model, it's all lip-flapping and dancing with the general public, singing sweet nothings down the ear canals of those who have not the time, energy, training, means, and/or motivation to engage the actual science.
Is Cook et al. 2013 lip-flapping? Perhaps, but you won't find too many scientists disagreeing with the conslusions drawn. You can wheedle and whittle all day with Anthony Watts, but the 600k pound gorilla in the room is 1) that the basic theory is supported by all evidence and physics, and 2) that there is no alternative theory that is supported by all evidence and physics--not even close. And if the theory is the actuality, then global energy storage can only continue to rise in the absence of any major off-setting forcing.
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spoonieduck at 13:26 PM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
M A Rodger,
Good. I believe you understand that, while tight definitions are important, "consensus" is not a particularly tight concept. I believe the term "consensus" has been used and misused because most folks--not even climatologists--can be pinned right on the mark by it. The word is nebulous and, in my opinion, shouldn't be used in polite conversation.
Still, a lot of AGW folks, live and die by the word. but many likely never bothered to look it up in the dictionary. Still, Dan Bailey, is surely right. I need a few remedial classes in scientific....ah....consensus, and a little light reading wouldn't hurt, either.
And, DSL, your post is intelligent but slightly off topic [which I don't mind]. I believe that most climatologists do believe in the theory of enhanced greenhouse effect [who doesn't?] but I'd stay away from the word "consensus." I'd love to address the rest of your post but DB doesn't want me to veer from the true path.
Moderator Response:[JMH] You are skating on the thin ice of excessive repetition and sloganeering -- both of which are prohibited by the SkS Comment Policy. Please cease and desist or face the consequences.
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Daniel Bailey at 07:49 AM on 8 September 2013There is no consensus
Spoonie needs remedial classes on what a scientific consensus is. Perhaps some light reading of this post will help:
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