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Comments 42501 to 42550:

42501. Kevin C at 01:34 AM on 10 September 2013
       The Pacific Ocean fills in another piece of the global warming puzzle, and puzzles Curry
       

       OK, there's a problem is estimating separate response functions from the different forcings. We basically have three types of forcing - anrthopogenic, solar and volcanic.

       The solar response is probably small. The BEST attribution paper puts it at 0.03C solar cycle peak to peak, which is smaller than Hansen and much smaller than F&R. However the result is strongly dependent on the duration of the response function. That means that for the moment it's not a very good basis for deducing the response function.

       The anthropogenic forcing is the biggest part of the signal. However it shows a roughly exponential increase over time. One problem in deconvoluting the temperature response from the forcings is that the deconvolution is singular for some classes of signal - linear and exponential functions included. We can't determine the shape of the response function from the anthropogenic response, because there are an infinite number of equally good solutions.

       That leaves the volcanic signal (or potentially a combination of the three signals). Now if the volcanic response has a dip in the second decade due to reduced heat release through ENSO, then that should be at least partly mitigated by including the ENSO term in the model (maybe only partially because the actuall response might be non-linear, e.g. current ENSO times heat stored last decade). If non-linearity is not an issue, including the ENSO term would avoid the need to change the shape of the response function.

       Further, I'm not sure I see a reason (unless we get into non-geographically-uniform forcings) for ENSO heat storage to respond differently to volcanoes than to other forcings.

42502. dvaytw at 01:02 AM on 10 September 2013
       Arctic Sea Ice Hockey Stick: Melt Unprecedented in Last 1,450 years
       

       Hey fellas - in the Nature  article, the abstract says:
       
       "Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice..."

       Can anyone explain to me in simple language what that basically entails?  
       
       Also, I've asked before and so far still haven't heard an answer: is there a way to set the thread so I'll be emailed a notification if there's a response?  
       
       (Mod - please feel free to answer and delete this part of the post!)

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] "is there a way to set the thread so I'll be emailed a notification if there's a response?"

       Not at the present time, sorry.

42503. StBarnabas at 22:10 PM on 9 September 2013
       Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
       

       Agreed

       I'm surprised ayone takes Monkton seriously given his track record. For anone who hasn't seen Potholer54 (Peter Hadfield's) excellent YouTube series on Monkton Monkton Bunkum Part 1 and following part 2 to 5 etc. I would strongly recommend as a masterclass in how to demolish a climate change "Skeptic."

       Chriskoz I think you are right about this being Monkton's first peer reviewed journal.

       Sean

42504. chriskoz at 19:46 PM on 9 September 2013
       Debunking 97% Climate Consensus Denial
       

       Indeed, that shameful article in Science & Education (I'm not afraid to use such epithet given the fundamental statistical error they've apear to have made) is co-othored by Monckton himself. I think this is technically the first peer reviewed article by Monckton because I don't know of anything to his credit, please correct me if I'm wrong.

       Minor glitch, Dana. Given Monckton's conclusion, that "the consensus is not 97%, but rather 0.3%", then it appears to be a typo in this sentence:

       ...based on Monckton's logic, only 0.08% of abstracts reject human-caused global warming.

       The two numbers, suggesting the consensus set is just 4 times larger than the rejection set, do not make sense. I would rather expect the "rejection rate" to be 0.008% in this context.

42505. Phil at 19:41 PM on 9 September 2013
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       

       MThomson,

       you appear to inching toward this myth. If you are, you should take the conversation to that thread.

42506. Richard Lawson at 18:52 PM on 9 September 2013
       Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
       

       Klaus @ 65, I think yet the answer to your questions 1 and 2 is to be found in the Sea Surface Temperature. This map of SST shows that the hurricanes appear, as expected, in the warmest areas :

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] Reduced image width to 450.  Click on image for larger version.

42507. tcflood at 07:55 AM on 9 September 2013
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       

       MThompson at 98:

       You are now getting into more detail than I have, but a few tens of meters is exactly the kind of distance that I have heard or seen mentioned many times. 

42508. Leland Palmer at 05:59 AM on 9 September 2013
       Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
       

       Two other probable massive methane releases from the oceanic methane hydrates- the Toarcian and Aptian oceanic anoxic events, of 180 and 120 million years ago:

       ON THE NATURE OF METHANE GAS-HYDRATE DISSOCIATION DURING THE TOARCIAN AND APTIAN OCEANIC ANOXIC EVENTS

       Our analyses support the idea that both the Early Toarcian and Early Aptian isotopic curves were indicative of large episodic methane releases (
       5000 and
       3000 Gt respectively) promoting warm ‘greenhouse’ conditions in the Mesozoic.

       Massive methane release can casuse both ocean acidification and oceanic anoxia, according to numerous authors.

       This hard scientific isotope ratio evidence of past probable methane releases from the hydrates cannot be safely ignored.

42509. spoonieduck at 04:43 AM on 9 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       MA Rodger et al,

       You are correct in assuming that my objection to the word "consensus" is individual and, even to me, my belaboring of the subject quickly becomes tedious.  

42510. Leland Palmer at 03:40 AM on 9 September 2013
       Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
       

       Here's another carbon isotope excursion, corresponding to the release of several trillion tons of carbon from the methane hydrates, from still another mass extinction hyperthermal event- the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM):

       Warming the fuel for the fire: Evidence for the thermal dissociation of methane hydrate during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

        

       

       This one charts the C13/C12 isotope ratios in individual foraminifera, across the PETM event, and simultaneously charts the O18/O16 ratios, reflecting changes in ocean temperature.

       The authors say the event was "geologically instantaneous". Other high resolution geological strata from Chinese formations calculate the duration of this first large probable methane release at less than 200 years.

       Geologically instantaneous and "less than 200 years" set an upper bound for the duration of the event, but no lower bound. From this evidence, it is impossible to set a lower bound for the duration of the event. From this evidence, the event could have taken place in one year, or 200- nobody knows.

       These are similar carbon isotope signatures of probable methane releases, from several large mass extinction events. The End Permian was about 250 million years ago. The End Triassic was about 200 million years ago. The PETM was about 50 million years ago. Each one corresponds to the release of several trillion tons of carbon from the hydrates.

       The hard scientific evidence of past carbon isotope excursions and associated mass extinctions cannot be safely ignored.

42511. Leland Palmer at 02:28 AM on 9 September 2013
       Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
       

       Here's another apparent mass methane injection event- the End Triassic. The authors of this paper claim that this event is best explained by the injection of 12 trillion tons of carbon (16 trillion tons of methane) into the atmosphere by a release of methane from the oceanic methane hydrates:

       Atmospheric Carbon Injection Linked to End-Triassic Mass Extinction

        

       

       Notice again the large carbon isotope excursion on the left, and the disappearance or loss of diversity of fossil groups on the right.

       The authors conclude:

       The end-Triassic mass extinction (~201.4 million years ago), marked by terrestrial ecosystem turnover and up to ~50% loss in marine biodiversity, has been attributed to intensified volcanic activity during the break-up of Pangaea. Here, we present compound-specific carbon-isotope data of long-chain n-alkanes derived from waxes of land plants, showing a ~8.5 per mil negative excursion, coincident with the extinction interval. These data indicate strong carbon-13 depletion of the end-Triassic atmosphere, within only 10,000 to 20,000 years. The magnitude and rate of this carbon-cycle disruption can be explained by the injection of at least ~12 × 103
       gigatons of isotopically depleted carbon as methane into the atmosphere. Concurrent vegetation changes reflect strong warming and an enhanced hydrological cycle. Hence, end-Triassic events are robustly linked to methane-derived massive carbon release and associated climate change.

       Notice that the apparent amount of carbon injected, 12 trillion tons, is right in line with Dickens' estimate of worldwide methane hydrate inventory of 5 to 20 trillion tons of carbon- it makes Dicken's group estimates seem a little low, in fact.

       Notice that the amount of carbon injected is several times that of Archer's estimate of roughly 0.7-1.2 trillion tons of carbon in the modern methane hydrates. So, Archer's estimates seem low, as do those of Milkov. By the way, Milkov worked for British Petroleum at the time he made his estimates - his original scientific paper acknowledges this. 

       But the End Triassic did not totally deplete the methane hydrates, very likely. Some modern hydrate deposits are very deep, and are not in high salt sediments. So, to me, this suggests that Klauda and Sandler's estimates of 74.4 trillion tons of carbon are likely closer to correct. Our recent series of ice ages have lowered ocean temperatures and expanded the methane hydrate stability zone.

       From Gerald Dickens:

       Down the Rabbit Hole: toward appropriate discussion of methane release from gas hydrate systems during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum and other past hyperthermal events

       The total mass of carbon stored as CH4 in present-day marine gas hydrates has been estimated numerous times using different approaches as reviewed in several papers (Dickens, 2001b; Milkov, 2004; Archer, 2007). Prior to 2001, several
       estimates converged on 10 000 Gt, and this “consensus mass” (Kvenvolden, 1993) was often cited in the literature. However, the convergence of estimates was fortuitous because different authors arrived at nearly the same mass but with widely varying assumptions; an appropriate range across the studies was 5000–20 000 Gt (Dickens, 2001b). In the last ten years, estimates have ranged from 500-2500 Gt (Milkov,
       2004), ∼700–1200 Gt (Archer et al., 2009), and 4–995 Gt (Burwicz et al., 2011) to 74 400 Gt (Klauda and Sandler, 2005). The latter is almost assuredly too high (Archer, 2007). The others are probably too low

       We don't know how much methane is in the hydrates. The higher estimates are favored, in my opinion.

       We don't know how rapidly methane will be released from the hydrates. But methane hydrates are a form of water ice- and ice melts when heated.

       We know that some high salt deposits probably capable of releasing methane rapidly in response to temperature changes exist.

       We know that a series of mass extinction events appear to be tied to massive methane releases, according to the carbon isotope ratio excursions.

       We know that fossil fuel use generates greenhouse side effects that generate on the order of 100,000 times as much greenhouse heating as is received in useful heat of combustion.

       These carbon isotope ratio excursions associated with several past mass extinctions are hard scientific evidence of past probable methane catastrophes, and cannot be safely ignored, in my opinion.

        

42512. MThompson at 02:17 AM on 9 September 2013
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       

       tcflood from comments 96 and 97,

       Thanks. The explanations that you have given are helping me a lot. Now I see that without CO₂ the earth’s blackbody radiation in the range of 13-18 microns (770 to 560 cm-1)  would be able to escape to space, instead of pumping the v2 CO₂* state and quickly distribute the energy into the local atmospheric vicinity.

       Digging into this a little more, I found a nice calculator online that shows the earth’s BB radiation in the bandwidth of interest is about 3x10²² photons per second per square meter. I estimate that near the earth’s surface there are about 1x10²² C0₂ molecules per cubic meter. I have not yet had time to delve into the photoabsorption cross-section of CO₂, but I’d guess that a few tens of meters would be sufficient to absorb all the earth's photons in the wavelength band of interest. This guess of course assumes that the lifetime of v2 C02* is much shorter than one second.

42513. michael sweet at 20:48 PM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       Spoonie,

       The nations of the world go over the IPCC summary document word by word and agree with all of them (for the fourth IPCC report the Bush administration agreed with the executive summary).  How could you possibly have a greater consensus than that?  Consensus does not mean unanimous agreement, it means the great majority agree.  In this case, unanimity of nations is required, which is beyond consensus.

42514. Stephen Ferguson at 19:16 PM on 8 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       DSL @ 7. You make a fair point on a scientific/technical background being no safeguard against climate denial. Indeed, as you point out, some of the most entrenched individuals come from such a background. However my point was about the institutional failings, not individual.

       The BBC has an immense responsibility to inform the public, which it does fantastically well most of the time. However, as Bob Ward points out; BBC senior management does not get that, by giving news bulletin airtime to contrarians in the name of reflecting all views and opinions in society, it is misleading the public into believing that there is no scientific consensus about the causes and consequences of climate change.

       Their misunderstanding of the import of science, and refusal to take the formally sought expert advice of an eminent scientist, is testament to the unscientific monoculture that exists in senior echelons of that organisation.

42515. MA Rodger at 18:39 PM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       Rob Honeycutt @570.

       Best not to ask for definitions from Spoonieduck. It is evident from what Spoonieduck says that the meaning of the word "consensus" is not the issue here as it is dismissed as being "nebulous." There is also the complain that it is misused which is perhaps an interesting idea given the word is apparently so ill-defined. Spoonieduck is evidntly hostile to its use, certainly with regard to AGW.

       I would suggest it is better to ask Spoonieduck what is meant by "There is little "concord" and there definitely is no "harmony" (concerning AGW theory." I though I was contradicting this statement when I wrote @566 that folk were "singing off the same hymn sheet." Spoonieduck's undoubted objections to this 'singing' are likely not to do with the quality of the voices but rather the actual song being sung.

42516. grindupBaker at 17:29 PM on 8 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       Typo. "observed slow-down in global temperature" S.B. "observed slow-down in global surface/air temperature". "Global warming" is an increase in OHC. Ice melt is ~1% or so. Fresh water warming is most of the ~9% residual. Surface/air temperature increase is (1) a symptom of special interest to land-based and shallow ocean-based fauna & flora (2) the physical necessary to balance and stop warming (3) a pretty good proxy measure when averaged over decades or longer. 

42517. scaddenp at 15:53 PM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       The emphasis on scientific consensus (the broad agreement within researchers actually doing the research) is that is what should guide public policy. It might turn out later that the consensus was wrong but the right decision for policy makers is go with the consensus. When stakes are high it is plumb foolish to do otherwise. Would you agree that policy makers should be mobilising resources if science said 75% chance of devastating asteroid strike - or wait till you have certainty but its too late to do anything meaningful.?

42518. Rob Honeycutt at 15:39 PM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       Spoonieduck...  Perhaps you can share with us what you believe the word "consensus" means.  

       I've always understood it to mean "a general agreement."  It doesn't mean that absolutely everyone has the exact understanding about an issue.  I would suggest that research shows there is a "broad" consensus on nearly all the basic tennets of AGW.

       Science is, by its very nature, battlesome since it is constantly operating at the boundarlies of our understanding.  The fights are over what we don't yet know.  And they tend to be fierce and highly intellectual battles that are well beyond anyone who doesn't have a deep education in the particular subject.

42519. DSL at 14:29 PM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       Chuckle, "AGW folk" is more ambiguous than "consensus."  How do you define "AGW folk"?

       I'll tell you what a consensus is.  It's achieved when science moves on, when science stops targeting the proposition for testing.  Very rarely, and the probability weakens with each passing year, do major theories that have reached the consensus state end up dying or going through major revision.

       Science has moved well beyond the fundamental theory of the greenhouse effect.  Its existence is no longer being targeted for research.  It is instead now fodder for STEM undergrads.  The fine details are still being worked out, yes (radiative transfer is not a simple thing).  Sure, there are the Gerlich & Tscheuschners of the world, who attempt to mathturbate the effect away, ignoring the multitude of direct surface observations (not surface temp -- downwelling longwave radiation from the atmosphere) that confirm modeled expectations. You can try to defend them if you wish, but their existence falsifies the consensus of evidence in favor of the greenhouse effect no more than the latest nutjob moon landing hoax claim falsifies the theory that humans have been to the moon.  Again, without solid evidence and a coherent physical model, it's all lip-flapping and dancing with the general public, singing sweet nothings down the ear canals of those who have not the time, energy, training, means, and/or motivation to engage the actual science. 

       Is Cook et al. 2013 lip-flapping?  Perhaps, but you won't find too many scientists disagreeing with the conslusions drawn.  You can wheedle and whittle all day with Anthony Watts, but the 600k pound gorilla in the room is 1) that the basic theory is supported by all evidence and physics, and 2) that there is no alternative theory that is supported by all evidence and physics--not even close.  And if the theory is the actuality, then global energy storage can only continue to rise in the absence of any major off-setting forcing.

42520. spoonieduck at 13:26 PM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       M A Rodger,

       Good.  I believe you understand that, while tight definitions are important, "consensus" is not a particularly tight concept.  I believe the term "consensus" has been used and misused because most folks--not even climatologists--can be pinned right on the mark by it.  The word is nebulous and, in my opinion, shouldn't be used in polite conversation.

       Still, a lot of AGW folks, live and die by the word. but many likely never bothered to look it up in the dictionary.  Still, Dan Bailey, is surely right.  I need a few remedial classes in scientific....ah....consensus, and a little light reading wouldn't hurt, either.

       And, DSL, your post is intelligent but slightly off topic [which I don't mind].  I believe that most climatologists do believe in the theory of enhanced greenhouse effect [who doesn't?] but I'd stay away from the word "consensus."  I'd love to address the rest of your post but DB doesn't want me to veer from the true path.

       Moderator Response:

       [JMH] You are skating on the thin ice of excessive repetition and sloganeering -- both of which are prohibited by the SkS Comment Policy. Please cease and desist or face the consequences.  

42521. Daniel Bailey at 07:49 AM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       Spoonie needs remedial classes on what a scientific consensus is.  Perhaps some light reading of this post will help:

       On Consensus

42522. One Planet Only Forever at 07:45 AM on 8 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       Bill BillEverett @ 6. I agree that the "energy level of our planet" is a main issue of the science of our planet's climate.

       The energy level of our planet is simply the balancing of "internal energy generation plus energy entering our planet's system" with the "rate of loss of energy from our planet's system". Humans are changing that balance toward a higher energy level by increasing the ability of our planet to retain energy that enters our planet's system.

       The tracking of the change can be done through a variety of measurements of different observable aspects of our planet's system. And it is true that the "total energy change" is important to understand. However, it is the energy at the surface that matters most to the "climate and weather events" we experience. That is why the global average surface temperature is important to monitor even though it fluctuates significantly and is not an accurate measure of the "total energy of our planet".

       This leads to a clarification of my previous reply to martin.

       The "energy gathered in the oceans" will not substantially shift out of the oceans into the troposphere. However, the warmer ocean will likely have a warmer surface through the full range of ocean surface fluctuations like ENSO. If the magnitude of an ENSO condition is determined by the “temperature of the surface of the ocean” without any adjustment for the fact that the ocean is generally warmer then the next ocean current shift comparable to the 1997-98 El Nino will be noted as a “more significant or stronger El Nino” producing a correspondingly larger short-term bump in global average surface temperatures.

       Another point is that the warmer ocean will lead to other changes that are separate from the “climate of the surface of our planet”, including the mentioned raising of ocean surface levels. And the impacts of the accumulation of CO2 in the oceans are additional changes that are separate from the climate impact.

       The identification and improved understanding of these impacts resulting from the way the most fortunate humans obtain maximum short-term benefit leads to the inevitable “politics” related to this “scientific issue”.

       The term “politics” can have many interpretations. I identify the “political aspect” of this “scientific issue” as “the need to fundamentally change all human activity to be truly sustainable on our one and only planet”. It needs to be possible for the entire human population to develop to live a decent life in a way that can be continued and improved by all humans forever. Any “claimed improvement” that is due to activity that is not sustainable is actually counter-productive and damaging. And increased understanding of subjects like climate impacts helps identify sustainable activity.

       Industrial mass-consumption and waste is not sustainable but has developed significant popularity leading many to claim the system of human interaction that led to its development is the “best way for humans to behave and interact”. Only a limited number of people can enjoy the way of life of the current most fortunate. And even the limited number of current most fortunate cannot continue to live that way much longer, let alone indefinitely. It is simply not sustainable. However, many among the most fortunate, and many hoping to be among the most fortunate, do not care about how sustainable their pursuits are. That is what leads to politics or “deliberately deceptive pursuit of public support” related to this "scientific issue".

       The way the science is presented is its best defense against attempted attacks on its credibility by those who do not want the subject to become better understood by more people. That is challenging in mass-consumerism societies with growing numbers of people who want more for themselves and believe they can get all the information they need from any snippet of information from any website they choose, or a tweet or a news-bite. And critical thinking is not the answer when people abuse that to just be critical of someone who tells them something they don’t want to believe. Rational reasoned considerate thought is required. Caring to understand how to create a sustainable better future for all life on our one and only planet is required. Willingly reducing how much personal benefit you can obtain is required.

       I appreciate the need and desire for scientists to stay focused on the science, but the politics related to an issue like this one are unavoidable.

42523. VictorVenema at 07:35 AM on 8 September 2013
       Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
       

       Chris Brierley wrote: "I would point out though that publishers are at the mercy of their journals' editors - so they may sometimes by unwitting victims. Publishers don't (and shouldn't) make editorial decisions. Their main input is to select the editors in the first place."

       A publisher cannot avoid all problems, but don't they set the rules? Shouldn't they have rules for who is the editor of a paper if the official (guest-)editor submits a paper himself? You need such rules so that the author cannot select his own reviewers and would know their names. You cannot expect good reviews without such rules.

       One of the problems was a paper that had ended up in the wrong journal. They did promise to transfer the article, but up to now did not do so. Makes the impression they do not care about quality.

       I am afraid, SkS will have to write something about this new journal more often.

        

42524. MA Rodger at 04:33 AM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       spoonieduck @564.

       There are of course many who would say that science is always in flux so there can never be a scientific consensus. This is perhaps theoretically true, and perhaps more than theoretically. In a recent BBC radio interview Prof Joanna Haigh suggested that if you put a bunch of professors in a room together, the last thing they are going to do is agree with each other. As a profession, academics make their mark in the world by arguing with each other; arguing and winning. Thus Professor Haigh's point is that the AGW consensus is all the more powerful because the IPCC has actually managed to bash academia into singing off the same hymn sheet.

       Using your dictionary definitions, you are probably correct to say there is no "solidarity of opinion" concerning AGW. Or at least it is fragile. Them professors will soon start arguing if you let them. But your dictionary also describes "collective judgement or belief" as being consensus. I think that has been achieved. AGW is real and it is bad, potentially exceedingly bad. And with the dissenting 3% entirely disagreeing with each other as to what the consensus has got wrong in reaching such a judgement, the "collective judgement" looks even better grounded.

42525. Leland Palmer at 04:03 AM on 8 September 2013
       Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
       

       The following figure is from Benton and Twichett's paper:

       How to kill (almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event

       

       Notice the carbon isotope excursions illustrated at the left side of the figure- parallel carbon isotope excursions from both carbonate and organic carbon sources. Notice the extinction of numerous fossil species on the right- in fact roughly 60% of all families and 80% of all genera became extinct, during the End Permian. The timescale of the extinction, according to other sources, was about 80 thousand years- but the initial apparent release was much quicker- less than two thousand years, according to many sources.

       As the authors point out:

       Not only must this new source of 12C be identified, but
       that source must also be capable of overwhelming normal
       atmospheric feedback systems. The only option so far
       identified is the methane released from gas hydrates
       (Box 3), an idea that has been accepted with alacrity
       [21,23,24,31].
       The assumption is that initial global warming at the
       PTr boundary, triggered by the huge Siberian eruptions,
       melted frozen gas hydrate bodies, and massive volumes
       of methane rich in 12C rose to the surface of the oceans
       in huge bubbles. This vast input of methane into the
       atmosphere caused more warming, which could have
       melted further gas hydrate reservoirs. The process
       continued in a positive feedback spiral that has been
       termed the ‘runaway greenhouse’ phenomenon. Some
       sort of threshold was probably reached, which was beyond
       where the natural systems that normally reduce carbon
       dioxide levels could operate effectively. The system
       spiralled out of control, leading to the biggest crash in
       the history of life.

       There are other carbon isotope excursions associated with mass extinction events, including the End Triassic, a couple of oceanic anoxic events in the Jurassic, and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. All of these correspond very well to the injection of several trillion tons of methane from the oceanic hydrates into the atmosphere. There are very large numbers of sudden isotope excursions, of course, corresponding to smaller methane releases, and smaller hyperthermal events- some of which appear to be timed to orbital cycles, and so to orbitally driven global warming.

       This is hard scientific isotope evidence, coming from the rocks of many, many sites around the world, duplicated numerous times by numerous scientists.

       This carbon isotope evidence of past apparent methane catastrophes cannot safely be ignored, in my opinion.

42526. DSL at 03:50 AM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       Seriously spoonie?  You don't think there's a consensus on the theory of the enhanced greenhouse effect?  That's all AGW is, plus the proposition that humans are responsible for the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2.  You realize that there are no comprehensive alternative theories and that the climate of the past cannot be explained without resorting to the greenhouse effect (and of course the GHE has been directly measured from surface).

       
       Or is it that you're being imprecise in your complaint/claim?

42527. spoonieduck at 03:30 AM on 8 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       OK, DB, so I'll give it another shot.  My comment is strictly on topic.

       Definitions are important in any debate so I've gone directly to the source i.e. Random House Webster's College Dictionary [1997]:

       "Consensus":  1.  collective judgment or belief; solidarity of opinion.  2.  general agreement or concord; harmony.  [1850-55; < L, = consent[ire] to be in agreement, harmony

       --Usage.  The expression "consensus of opinion" is sometimes criticized as being redundant on the basis that "consensus" alone conveys the meaning.  Although the redundancy argument is weakened if "consensus" is taken in its earlier and valid sense of "general agreement or concord," the criticism of this phrase has been so persistent that "consensus of opinion" occurs only infrequently in edited formal writing.  The phrase "general consensus" is also objected to as redundant.

       Now, Spoonie will comment.  Using the strict definition of the word "consensus", it can certainly be argued that there is no consensus concerning AGW theory.  There is no "solidarity of opinion".  There is little "concord" and there definitely is no "harmony."

42528. tcflood at 03:18 AM on 8 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       Regarding comments 5 and 7:

       There's an interesting paper "The polarizing impact of scientific literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks" in Nature Climate Change, Vol 2, p 732, 2012 that is worth reading. Scientific literacy is no guarantee that someone will agree with you.

42529. DSL at 23:49 PM on 7 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       Stephen, let's back off the generalizations re the humanities.  Humanities majors don't have a lock on scientific non-expertise.  I also imagine that many of the people at the BBC have backgrounds in communications/journalism, which are not considered part of the humanities.  The problem is not a particular area of training.  The problem is the driving interest that leads people to say "yes" instead of "no" when it comes to manufacturing debate.

       Could scientific training help them say "no"?  It couldn't hurt, but it's certainly no universal medicine.  Witness Lindzen, Michaels, Spencer, Morner, Soon, et al.  Witness the 32,000 signers of the OISM petition, all allegedly with some scientific training. 

       As I've pointed out elsewhere, the general public doesn't know the difference between Nature and Energy & Environment.  One cannot appeal to scientific reason when speaking to the general public--at least not beyond a surface treatment.  The arguments of the Watts, et al., align with political platforms, not with measures of scientific credibility, and so the ideas of Watts et al. spread to a much greater audience.  The BBC receives that spread in return: pressure from the public and from policymakers.

       There's no easy solution.  Pushing critical thinking skills is important, of course, but I've seen the best of my student thinkers shortcut when thinking through an issue toward which he had little motivation.  Climate science is definitely not an area of science that can be untangled in a day with a sharp mind.  I frequently encounter people who are smart and understand the greenhouse effect but who argue from the equilibrium climate sensitivity that the IPCC has overestimated warming.  These are engineers and scientists in other fields, not humanities majors, and it takes a really long time to get them to understand what is blazingly obvious to me (the oceans), and I am trained in the humanities (ABD right now). 

42530. BillEverett at 20:10 PM on 7 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       It is unfortunate that our ordinary language doesn't match the facts of thermodynamics very well, in particular, that we don't have separate common words to distinguish between an increase of heat energy in a system and an increase of the temperature of the system. We consequently seem to have continuing confusion between an accelerating increase of heat in the global system and a varying increase of the temperatures of different parts of the system.

42531. Stephen Ferguson at 18:57 PM on 7 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       Brilliant video.

       The Radio 4 excerpt is typical of the BBC news reporting, which, dominated as it is by humanities graduates, is institutionally incapable of understanding the gigantic difference between evidence-based science and ideological-based propaganda.

       They are arrogant in their ignorance too, even choosing to ignore their own internal review carried out in 2011 by Steve Jones, professor of genetics at University College London, on the accuracy and impartiality of the BBC’s science output

       Bob Ward of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics puts it well.

       “But it is clear that the BBC’s cadre of unscientific senior staff has simply ignored this aspect of the review by Professor Jones. In his evidence to the House of Commons select committee on science and technology on 17 July, David Jordan, director of editorial policy and standards at the BBC and a graduate of economics and politics from the University of Bristol, told MPs: "[Professor Jones] also made one recommendation which we didn’t take on board which is that we should regard climate science as settled in effect, and therefore that we shouldn’t hear from dissenting voices on the science of climate change and we didn’t agree with that because we think the BBC’s role is to reflect all views and opinions in society and we’ve continued to do that."

       This is the result of erroneously believing that climate change is just a political issue, and based on a matter of opinion. But the laws of atmospheric physics are not a "point of view", and this wrong-headed approach by the BBC means it is sacrificing accuracy by being impartial between facts and fictions.”

       http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/giving-platform-climate-change-sceptics-bbc-misleading-public

42532. One Planet Only Forever at 10:24 AM on 7 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       martin,

       The inter-relationship of the various things being measured and discussed is important to understand.

       The oceans gathering heat will affect global average surface tempeature when the next strong El Nino event develops. The history of global average surface temperatures shows a statistically significant effect from the ENSO cycle. The global average is bumped up by El Nino and is bumped down by La Nina. ENSO is currently fairly neutral and the global average temperture is as high as values were during the big El Nino bump of 1997-98.

       Therefore, anyone tracking the global average surface temperture should also include an adjustment for the phase and degree of the ENSO cycle that is influencing it. The other understood variable impacts on the global average surface temperature should also be included.

       When that is done there is no recent significant slowing down or pause in the global average surface temperature values.

42533. Riduna at 09:56 AM on 7 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       Interesting graphics. They show that none of the ocean warming in lower latitudes penetrates polar oceans - which is not the case and is misleading.

42534. John Hartz at 09:08 AM on 7 September 2013
       Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
       

       @Andy Skuce #54:

       Nafeez Ahmed reponds to Michael Tobis in a lengthy article, Why the jury's still out on the risk of Arctic methane catastrophe, posted Sep 5 on his Guardian blog, Earth Insight.

       Here's the lead paragraph of Ahmed's post. 

       About a week ago, climate scientist Michael Tobis wrote a critique of my 'Seven facts about the Arctic methane time bomb' following a twitter exchange with him and Chris Colose, author of an article at Skeptical Science arguing that the core scenario of a new Nature paper by Gail Whiteman et. al on the economic costs of Arctic climate change is extremely unlikely.

42535. One Planet Only Forever at 09:01 AM on 7 September 2013
       Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
       

       chriskoz,

       Eventually the strength of the science will win out. However, this issue needs action now, not eventually. Those wishing to delay the reduction of their personal opportunity to get more benefit for themselves desperately need to be able to maintain support for their delay tactics, and claiming "a peer-reviewed paper said..." is highly sought. Their target audience is unlikely to ever learn about any eventual rebuittal.

       Scientific research is constantly identifying problems being created by "profitable activities". Very coordinated political public relations deceptive marketing programs are abused by the profiteers as long as they can get away with them. The wealthier the profiteers are the more deceptive marketing they can create. Governments pursuing tax revenue have also joined in the deliberately deceptive marketing campaigns. And in this case, the need to reduce the burning of fossil fuels, they have an audience that is easy to impress. Many people desire more personal profit, pleasure, comfort and convenience any way they can justify getting away with.

       The politics of this issue makes it desirable for "unsubstantiated claims" to be able to be published in "peer-reviewed journals". That is probably why some new "peer-reviewed journals" have popped up. They may be part of the deliberate deception action plan trying to delay changes that would genuinely lead to sustainable human activity.

42536. martin3818 at 08:49 AM on 7 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       Will the heat stay locked away in the ocean's depths or will it all come back and global warming accelerate?

       Is it possible that global warming can increase the probability of La niñas? A negative feedback?

42537. Leland Palmer at 06:31 AM on 7 September 2013
       Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
       

       Hi davidnewell-

       The siren song of reassurance is tempting, I'll admit.

       But we need to remember that the total cumulative greenhouse heating from buring a ton of fossil fuel is on the order of 100,000 times the useful heat of combustion, according to numerous modelers including Ken Caldeira of Stanford.

       If we destabililize the methane hydrates, the cumulative greenhouse heating from buring a ton of fossil fuel could be millions of times the useful heat of combustion. So the greenhouse side effects of fossil fuel use are much, much greater than the benefit.

       This is not a sustainable system, when we are talking about burning trillions of tons of methane from the hydrates, or worse yet, releasing it without buring it.

       Arguments that we know precisely how fast the methane hydrates will destabilize, and therefore we should bet the future of the planet on our present incomplete state of knowledge are very, very weak arguments, in my opinion.

       According to numerous sources including the Union of Concerned Scientists, the fossil fuel industry is waging a war of disinformation about this subject, as well. One of the key goals of that disinformation campaign is to inject confusion into the debate.

       In such an environment, with tens of trillions of dollars at stake, we should not be tempted by arguments that tell us what we really want to hear, I think. 

       We all really want to hear that things will be all right, I think.

       But the carbon isotope signatures of multiple past apparent methane catastrophes cannot be prudently ignored, in my opinion. We may not know precisely how past methane catastrophes occurred. 

       But, the simplest explanation, the best theory, is that past methane catastrophes did in fact occur. The methane gun hypothesis is in fact the only consistent hypothesis put forth to this date to explain a whole series of mass extinction events, I think.

       These carbon isotope excursions correspond very well with the injection of several trillion tons of methane into the atmosphere from the methane hydrates- not just once, but several times in sufficient quantity to cause mass extinction events.

       The carbon isotope excursions associated with past mass extinction events are hard scientific evidence, which cannot be safely ignored, in my opinion.

42538. kmalpede at 01:07 AM on 7 September 2013
       Free Staged Reading of a new Climate Change Play - Extreme Whether in New York September 10th
       

       Thank you, Chriskoz.  The play is also based on James Hansen and Michael Mann, and others who have been attacked just for doing good science and being concerned about the fate of the earth.  But, I, too, find Jennifer's theories really interesting and have tried to represent them accurately in the play. Also, Jennifer was extremely open with me, very willing to talk to a playwright who just called her up and asked for her help.  I appreciate that enormously.  And James Hansen also took a read of the play before he saw it and gave me one note. 

42539. chriskoz at 00:59 AM on 7 September 2013
       Free Staged Reading of a new Climate Change Play - Extreme Whether in New York September 10th
       

       Strong words from Jennifer Francis about "misleaders".

       I'm not surprised the play is based on her. In addition of being of one of the most promient public figures of climate science, her theory (slowing and meandering jet stream) is IMO the most interesting recent breakthrough with our understanding of climate change. Good choice of inspiration.

42540. DSL at 23:35 PM on 6 September 2013
       Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
       

       Chriskoz: "the rebutals will follow and eventual correction will be forced, or the author will be disgraced."

       Yah, but disgrace is apparently not the final stage. Witness Mörner and Soon. In reality, the rebuttals follow, but the authors just develop their own journals and sciencey organizations.  This is a public issue: the general public can't tell the difference between Nature and Energy & Environment, and policy-makers are not motivated to do so.  A simulacrum of climate science is emerging, an internally incoherent copy that is nevertheless given life by the ignorance (not stupidity) of the general public and the unwillingness of policy-makers to think and act independent of their effective constituencies (not the people).  The engineers of the simulacrum either know what they're doing and have committed themselves (Mörner and Soon) or they're like Watts, who doesn't really understand the science and probably wakes up every morning hoping new information will vindicate him.  

42541. chriskoz at 19:25 PM on 6 September 2013
       Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
       

       We can only speculate what was the reason for this instance of peer review failure (vested  interest or pal review or something else), we won't know.

       We have to admit that peer review process, as climate science itself, is not bullet-proof. Mishaps as such will happen. We need to put it in perspective: how many climate science publications are beeing produced annualy? In tens of thousands. Peer review works resonably well in all those cases. Just this one case being an only notable failure in the entire process is not that bad.

       And most important, the science will eventualy win when the failure case is exposed: Chris' resignation is just a start, the rebutals will follow and eventual correction will be forced, or the author will be disgraced.

42542. Doug Hutcheson at 17:44 PM on 6 September 2013
       Global Warming Includes Oceans Too - and Continues to Rise Fast
       

       Another pearl of wisdom from Peter Sinclair. Even the 'Thanks' credits reflect a cross-section of scientific knowledge and probity.

42543. tcflood at 15:44 PM on 6 September 2013
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       

       MThompson;

       It just occurred to me that a good example might be to suppose that the GHG of concern were benzene.  Let's suppose that the molecular vibration of interest were the C-H stretching mode at about 3000 cm-1.  Let's say the earth somehow naturally emitted significant IR energy at that frequency.  The benzene C-H stretch would be excited and that energy would be immediately transferred to the surrounding O2 and N2 thermal bath. Suppose that the ambient atmospheric temperature were about 40 C. The Boltzman distribution for that vibrational mode would be ~100 % v0 and 1 x 10^-6 %  of v1. With no significant concentration of v1 at equlibrium, no emission of IR at 3000 cm-1 would be seen (say, back-radiation toward earth) from this system.

42544. tcflood at 15:00 PM on 6 September 2013
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       

       MThompson at 95;

       I don't know that this is all going to matter in understanding the greenhouse effect, but to get the clearest physical picture of what is going on, it is probably best to separate the two phenomena of (1) IR pumping of the CO2 bending mode which has the effect of heating the surrounding atmosphere and (2) the temperature-dependent equilibrium between the vibrational groundstate (v0) and the first excited state (v1) which leads to a steadystate concentration of v1 from which IR emission occurs.

       In (1) photoexcitation forms a v1 CO2* in a single specific molecule which then has a lifetime of only picoseconds because it undergoes collisional energy transfer reforming v0 CO2 and distributing the energy into the local atmospheric vicinity.  Photoexcitation can be thought of as only causing atmospheric warming.

        

       In (2) the thermal pool of all the atmospheric gases has enough energy to cause, say, 4% of the total CO2 population to persist as a constant concentration of v1 excited state species in accordance with the Boltzmann equation.  Now, spontaneous emission is a strictly first-order kinetic phenonenon so that the rate of emission depends on a constant times the concentration of the excited state. The rates at which individual molecular excited states are thermally produced or thermally quenched don't matter -- only the concentration matters for photon emission.

       If you are able to view the system as having two independent processes in this way, it may be easier to understand. 

42545. DSL at 12:47 PM on 6 September 2013
       Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
       

       Kramm had a run-in with SoD last year.  See the comment stream.

42546. spoonieduck at 12:09 PM on 6 September 2013
       There is no consensus
       

       Kkennett09,

       I'm new here and I'm trying to get to the right subject--consensus.  Anyway, you bring up tobacco in apparent reference to disease and propaganda.  Yes, the tobacco industries desperately avoided getting saddled and hired the best--the absolute best--attorneys available to slip the noose.  They failed because the statistics are so obvious.  The chance of developing bronchogenic carcinoma [for one] is 10 times greater in smokers than in non-smokers.

       (-snip-).

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] Off-topic, sloganeering, inflammatory and ideology snipped.

       Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

       Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

42547. Tom Curtis at 09:44 AM on 6 September 2013
       Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
       

       (-snip-) (see above) asks:

       "How, in the assertions that CO2 radiates spontaneously at NTP, did the measurements eliminate the background radiation from the container? And, where can I look up tables of penetration depth of i/r in CO2 against temperature and pressure? Surely with so much invested in the subject, these should be standard engineer's tables."

       Hitran is the equivalent of the engineering toolbox for CO2 emission and absorption in the IR spectrum.  The 15 micron emission spectrum of CO2 was measured by Gordon and McCubbin (1965).  The instrument used is described in McCubbin, Lowenthal and Gordon (1965).

       That  (-snip-) does not know of the science gives no information at all as to whether or not the science exists.

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] Inflammatory snipped.

42548. Rob Honeycutt at 09:36 AM on 6 September 2013
       Why I Resigned from the Editorial Board of Climate over its Akasofu Publication
       

       I'm really fascinated by this.  It strikes me as strange that someone, like Akasofu, whom I gather has the capacity to do substantial, original research, would think that it's okay to not do similar work related to climate change?

       Surely he understands this paper was not truly up to snuff.  What would be his motivation?  

       Could there be an element that he doesn't want to push any deeper into the material because it might actually challenge the conclusions he prefers to believe?

       Could he be knowingly publishing bad research counter to AGW for ideological reasons?

       People like Pat Michaels and the Idso's, I think I get those guys.  For them climate denial is a lucrative gig.  They are, essentially, working for the FF industry and will present conclusions the industry needs.  Their pay depends on producing contradictory claims, accurate or not.

       It's these second tier researchers who don't seem (as far as I know) derive any direct income from the FF industry that I don't get. 

42549. davidnewell at 09:27 AM on 6 September 2013
       Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
       

       This is the last thing Shakhova says in the video:

       "strictly speaking, we do not like what we see there. Absolutely do not like."

       ==============

        

       This thread should be at least a partial relief to her, as it is to me, since it was obvious that she was deeply and personally concerned about the issue.   Besides, she's really pretty.

       So at least we have a possibility of having a Planet for more than another 25 years or so.

        

       Whew!

42550. MThompson at 08:38 AM on 6 September 2013
       Greenhouse Effect Basics: Warm Earth, Cold Atmosphere
       

       tcflood at 94, 

       Thanks very much. My percentages were for the energy of all gas molecules that had enough energy to excite CO2, but your steady-state 4% number is more direct and to-the-point.

       Now to continue developing my mental image, the photons from the earth's surface blackbody radiation in the range of 13-18 microns (770 to 560 cm-1) are pumping the CO2->CO2* transition. The CO2* relax in one of two ways: by colliding with other atmospheric gas molecules and thus raise their kinetic energy, or the CO2* relax by releasing photons in the range of 13-18 microns. Is this a good visualization?

        

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