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MA Rodger at 03:42 AM on 11 February 2022Mars is warming
Waking2Kindness #[cSSw#d0h @58,
Your correction should perhaps be subject to a bit of give & take.
Thus you are correct that the Sun gives out 1367Wm^-2 of TSI to the Earth. But this is for the disc of the Earth famously od area πR2.
The Earth takes this TSI over its entire sphere of area 4πR2 and of this 30% is reflected back into space. Thus the actual planetary warming totals [70% of 1366 / 4 ≈] 240Wm^-2.
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Waking2Kindness #[cSSw#d0h at 03:11 AM on 11 February 2022Mars is warming
The common est. of Earth's TSI [ Total Solar Irradiance ] is actually
ca. 1365 W/m2 [ Watts per square meter ; properly "W/m^2" ] \
( Right now, 2022 Feb., it's measured at 1366 W/m^2 , w/ a variance thru the most recent solar cycle of 1.6 W/m^2 \ )
( Just one of myriad sources for this : LINK )
( This was just to correct an earlier commenter's mis-quote of it , as "240 W/m2" \ )
\\
Moderator Response:[DB] Shortened link breaking page formatting
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MA Rodger at 23:36 PM on 10 February 2022It's albedo
blaisct @115,
And concerning your second question - "If all the global warming, GW, came from CO2 radiative forcing alone would not a graph like @111 be flatter...?"The 'graph @111' is Fig 3 of Dübal & Vahrenholt (2021) and specifically shows a quite-dramatic reduction in albedo 2001-20 with a trend of -0.70Wm^-2/decade. Fig 1 shows a reduction in solar of -0.03Wm^-2/d. Thus Figs 1 & 3 matches Loeb et al (2021) Fig 2d with Absorbed Solar 2002-20 given as +0.67Wm^-2/d. Loeb et al Fig 2d also presents an attribution of this increased absorbed solar warming 2002-20, ☻ 60% cloud albedo, ☻ 7% water vapour, ☻ 4% GHGs, ☻ 26% surface albedo, ☻ 3% aerosol. And note also that Loeb et al Fig 2a shows this 'quite-dramatic' effect occurs almost totally 2013-20.
To explain this attribution; if 4%+7% of this increase-in-Absorbed Solar (decrease-in-albedo) is attributed to GHGs, this means additional GHGs+water-vapour is directly preventing solar being otherwise reflected away and instead directly absorbed by the increased GHG+water-vapour. The underlying cause for the water vapour increase is of course AGW.
Your question implies that you consider there is something other than AGW and increased CO2 driving a significant part of this increase-in-Absorbed Solar (decrease-in-albedo) 2002-20. I don't think I could agree.
Loeb et al does identify the geography of the various components of the net EEI, mapping them out in Fig 3 and pointing to the Surface effect being "greatest in areas of snow and sea-ice, where significant declines in coverage have been observed in recent decades." It is, of course, easy to see that the ice-loss is due to AGW.
And for the biggest component, Cloud, Loeb et al says "Regional trends in net radiation attributable to changes in clouds are strongly positive along the east Pacific Ocean, while more modest positive trends occur off of the U.S. east coast and over the Indian, Southern, and central equatorial Pacific Oceans." Is this the finger print of AGW? If it isn't, it would require an alternative causation.
If AGW is the cause, note that the increase-in-Absorbed Solar (decrease-in-albedo) 2002-20 is mainly occuring 2013-20 which matches the global temperature record showing 70% of the 2002-20 warming occurred in the period 2013-20.
So without further explanation, I see no reason to expect a "flatter" slope from CO2-forcing alone, the slope being presumably all down to AGW.
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Wol at 10:44 AM on 10 February 2022New book: Wales - The Missing Years - a celebration of origin
>>The oldest rocks we know of, here in Wales.....<<
A comma makes all the difference!
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MA Rodger at 00:09 AM on 10 February 2022It's albedo
blaisct @115,
The Wiki reference you cite giving 0.8 is presumably this paragraph which provides a statement of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity with ΔTs = λ ΔF and λ = 0.8ºC/Wm^-2.
With ECS usually given as the ΔTs for a doubling of CO2 where ΔF = 3.7Wm^-2, ECS = 3ºC. This is the usual 'central' value given for ECS. IPCC AR6 Ch7 calls 3ºC "the best estimate."
"Based on multiple lines of evidence the best estimate of ECS is 3°C, the likely range is 2.5°C to 4°C, and the very likely range is 2°C to 5°C."
But this increase in EEI for the period 2001-20 cannot be used as a value for ΔF in ECS equations.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:28 PM on 9 February 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast is too fast?
This comment includes some repetition, but here are my thoughts, as an ethical engineer, regarding the ‘speed’ of ‘sea level rise’.
I started reading Chapter 13 of the IPCC AR5 WG2 Report hoping to find a reasonable indication of the amount of sea level rise that is likely per degree C of global warming impact. There are many complications, not the least of which is how long the temperature remains warmer after human activity impacts stop causing increased GHG concentrations.
Chapter 13 includes the following: “For the period 2081–2100, compared to 1986–2005, global mean sea level rise is likely (medium confidence) to be in the 5 to 95% range of projections from process-based models, which give 0.26 to 0.55 m for RCP2.6”. And there would be additional sea level rise after 2100 in RCP2.6. Chapter 13 also provides the following low end estimate of future sea level rise: “The few available process-based models that go beyond 2100 indicate global mean sea level rise above the pre-industrial level to be less than 1 m by 2300 for greenhouse gas concentrations that peak and decline and remain below 500 ppm CO2-eq, as in scenario RCP2.6.”
That leads to understanding that there is a significant lack of certainty regarding the consequences of human climate change impacts. But the low end of possible impacts is significant, especially the uncertainty regarding the end magnitude of the climate change impacts. That means there is currently significant uncertainty regarding what the final changes that have to be adapted to will be when humans stop causing accumulating climate change impacts.
As an engineer I, and hopefully other engineers, would take the position that actions causing highly uncertain risk of harm should not be continued, and should be rapidly decreased, ideally being stopped immediately. Continuing or increasing the activities that are producing the understandably harmful accumulating impacts would not be allowed by responsibly engineers until the uncertainties are significantly reduced. That is the ethical position to take when faced with high uncertainty regarding the need to ensure that there is an acceptably low chance of harmful results.
From an responsible ethical engineer’s perspective, even if a structure is built and being used, as soon as the potential risk of a significant harmful result is identified the responsible thing to do is to stop using the structure until the risk of harm is reduced to an acceptable low level. A common safety level for structure design codes is to have less than a 2% chance of a harmful result.
Returning to the Chapter 13 point above, the sea level rise for 5% chance of harm is 0.55 m by 2100 in RCP2.6 with more rise occurring after 2100. Designing seafront developments, and revising existing ones, to have a 98% chance of adequate performance in 2100 would need to be based on more than 0.55 m rise in RCP2.6. And a higher sea level rise would be the required basis for features that are hoped to be sustainable past 2100. And even more sea level rise would need to be the basis if a scenario of higher impact than RCP2.6 occurs.
Going back to the ethical considerations, the beneficiaries of the harmful activities in the current generation have an ethical obligation to ensure that there is only a very small chance that Others, especially future generations, have to expend their effort adapting to climate change impacts they did not significantly benefit from the creation of. And the people benefiting cannot be trusted to do the evaluation of the risk and magnitude of harm done.
Given the significant uncertainties of the harm being done by climate change impacts, a significant amount of ‘corrective action’ is required from those who benefit(ed) most from the harm being done. And that corrective action includes rapidly reducing how much they benefit from the harmful activity. And ‘self interest’ would powerfully motivate the beneficiaries of the harmful action to incorrectly evaluate the risk and magnitude of harm done.
And, regarding the adaptations that current humans should be making to reduce the harmful need for future adaptation, the ethical understanding is that it is harmful for current day people to benefit from living in ways that future generations cannot continue, with the related ethical understanding that requiring future generations to adapt to future changes, which is a distraction from pursuing sustainable improvements, is harmful to them.
The development of sustainable improvements for the future of humanity requires a reasonable certainty of the maximum magnitude of climate change impacts, not just a slower rate of change. A massive amount of human development, especially things like food production in the Bangladesh delta region, is at risk of harmful impact from sea level rise. And some of it is already seriously harmed by the 0.3 m sea level rise that has occurred over the past 100 years.
Also, it is important to note that there are other harmful impacts of climate change that deserve consideration. The discussion of sea level rise should be clarified to be only one of many harmful impacts of climate change. Believing it is possible for future generations to ‘deal with’ 0.3 m sea level rise every 100 years is incorrect by itself. When all the other harmful impacts of climate change are considered, the acceptability of far lower rates of climate change being imposed on future generations can be understood to be unacceptable.
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So, the concern about sea level rise is far more than a concern about the rate of change. Admittedly, if the rate of change due to human action was less than 0.3 m in 1000 years it could be argued that rebuilding or adapting human development could potentially be expected to ‘keep pace’. But even that ‘ability to adapt’ has to come with an admission that some things that could last for 1000 years or more would be ruined by the human caused sea level rise. It also has to be admitted that ‘accepting human imposed sea level rise, or other climate change impacts’ also requires the admission of the need for current day humans to rapidly transition to sustainable ways of living, including revision of things that have already been developed in order for them to be sustainable.Without rapid transition to sustainable development, seaside developments would have to be rebuilt constantly, a major distraction from sustainable development efforts. That would be more than just replacing buildings. It would include completely relocating developed areas and features like sewage collection and treatment systems.
That understanding leads to an engineering solution I am fond of pointing out. If someone asks how they can build a resort area in the mountains to survive potential avalanches, the answer is to not develop anything in areas of the mountains that are prone to avalanches, or to restrict development in avalanche prone regions of the mountains to minor easily rebuilt stuff for short-term use, like day-use. And the related climate change issue is changes of avalanche potential due to climate change. The more rapid and more significant the climate change is likely to be the more restrictions there should be on development in mountain areas. When there is less certainty regarding changes of avalanche risk (uncertainty of the rate of change of risk, or a rapid rate of change, or uncertainty about the ultimate maximum magnitude of change of risk when the human induced climate change is stopped), or uncertainty regarding the actual changes of avalanche risk due to a certain amount of climate change impact, then human development needs to be kept out of larger areas of mountain regions. And already built human developments need to be removed from that larger area.
Considerations of human caused sea level rise leads to similar thinking, recommendations and restrictions for seafront development. Without certainty regarding the peak climate change impacts, seafront regions should be planned to be abandoned. Human development should be kept well back from seafronts and also be kept out of low lying regions that would be subject to future flooding by sea level rise. Those areas should be restricted to temporary development for short-term use. Restricting the seafronts to day-use only would also reduce the risk of storm harm to humans. There would be less need for mass evacuations on short notice. And Project Drawdown led by Paul Hawken and Amanda Joy Ravenhill, and other sources, mention other benefits of undeveloping and rewilding seafront regions.
But the more challenging aspect of the sea level rise or avalanche risk issues, more challenging than revisions of what humans build, is the impacts on more essential human development like food production in river delta regions. That is a ‘more essential’ use of a region that is at risk of being less able to be adapted to suit the regional climate change impacts. A critical understanding is the importance of the need to protect the sustainability of the ‘diversity of regional environments that humans essentially require’ from human climate change impacts. And it leads to the awareness that all harmful human impacts on the environment are a concern because humans can only be certain to survive if they are ‘part of the diversity of life on this amazing planet’. Technology can help. But the environment is essential. And the diversity of life needs a reasonably stable environment, an environment that is not rapidly or significantly changed by human activity.
The UNEP 2022: Emergency mode for the environment, published January 6, 2022, identifies the “... enduring crises of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste.” That is far more than climate change. And it all matters, not just climate change.
It is also essential to be aware that the climate change concern is not restricted to sea level rise. There are many different harmful impacts of climate change, not just sea level rise (or changes to avalanche risk).
In closing, developing a sustainable and improving future for humanity does not just mean reducing the rate of climate change impacts. It also requires more than ending climate change impacts. More than Net-Zero by 2050 is required. Limiting the magnitude of the peak impact is key. So ‘slowing down the rate of harm done as rapidly as possible’ is better than ‘going slower on the slowing down of harmful impacts in the unethical hope that more rapid slowing down will be done by Others in the future’. And it is even less ethical to believe and claim that future generations will be able to deal with whatever gets imposed on them.
Post closing: Drawing down CO2 levels to 350 ppm ‘even if drawing down CO2 levels is unpopular or not profitable’ would also be an ethical thing to do. And it is easier to do if the peak climate change impact is smaller.
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blaisct at 08:32 AM on 9 February 2022It's albedo
MA Rodger @114
Thanks again. You caught me in one of my dyslexic moments. That conversion factor should have been written as 0.5 ‘C/(W/m^2). Or 0.45’C/(0.5 ‘C/W/m^2) = 0.9 W/m^2. Your note, forced me to look again for the derivation of it: It is not a conversion factor, it is a statistical relationship that can vary according to the author and subject of a paper, that’s why I found a range of 0.5 to 0.7, Wikipedia gives 0.8. In which case, the graph @111 has its own statistical relationship of 0.45’C/1.3 W/m^2 = 0.35 ‘C/(W/m^2) and does look different than other statistical factors, having the lowest observed temperature rise per W/m^2. I am not sure that means anything. It does negate my first question. I will rephrase the second question: If all the global warming, GW, came from CO2 radiative forcing alone would not a graph like @111 be flatter and this “conversion factor” be very high? Indicating the other factors listed above (0.5, 0.7, 0.8 ‘C/W/m^2) may have some effect of CO2 caused GW in them and @111 the lowest?
Small bites of the apple are working. -
MA Rodger at 00:17 AM on 9 February 2022It's albedo
blaisct @113,
Surely 0.45ºC x 0.5Wm^-2/ºC = 0.225Wm^-2. The Dübal & Vahrenholt (2021) numbers put the 2001-20 19-year increase in Absorbed Solar at +1.27Wm^-2 (+/- 0.26, so 1.53 to 1.01). With the 0.5 convertion factor you state you used, that would be 1.27 / 0.5 = 2.54ºC (or 3.06ºC to 2.02ºC). The alternative 0.7 convertion factor you mention would yield 2.19ºC to 1.44ºC.
As for these 0.5 and 0.7 convertion factors, simple physics tells us a planet with 240Wm^-2 solar warming would require a factor of 3.7Wm^-2/ºC. But with the oceans to be warmed, that is a process that would take centuries not 19 years of slowly increased warming, a process which is also complicated by feedback mechanisms.I would attempt to assist in putting your analysis back on the rails but I'm not entirely sure what it is you are about and also a little conscious that you are referencing Dübal & Vahrenholt (2021) which drinks rather deeply at the well of denialism.
That said, you appear not to be accounting for AGW prior to 2001 and attempting to analyse climate numbers 2001-20 in isolation. But AGW has been running at a pretty constant rate since the 1970s with only recently the first signs of a bit of acceleration. Simply attempting to isolate the period 2001-20 from the on-going AGW is always going to end in tears.
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blaisct at 09:17 AM on 8 February 2022It's albedo
MA Rogres @112
The +0.45'C X 0.5 W/m^2/'C. I copied that conversion factor from other posts on the internet. I have looked for the derivation of it and cannot find it. I have also seen 0.7 W/m^2/'C used. I would love to find the derivation or use the correct one.
As for the slope difference. Put the temperature line I suggested on the same graph and you will see the temp (W/m^2) stays just within the confidence intervals of the graph - close enough, I did not say perfect but almost perfect. -
MA Rodger at 10:33 AM on 7 February 2022It's albedo
blaisct @111,
You say you want to "take smaller bites out of albedo apple" which is probably advisable and presumably it is also advisable to start from the first "small bite."
So we have set out in Dübal & Vahrenholt (2021) for the 19 year period 2001-20 a trend in 'Incoming Solar (TOA)' of -0.0035Wm^-2/yr and a trend of 'Shortwave Out (TOA) ' -0.0704Wm^-2/yr of and thus an inferred trend in 'Absorbed Solar' of +0.0669Wm^-2/yr which would thus equate to +1.27Wm^-2 'Absorbed Solar' over the 19 years. So far so good.
You then assert that the "change in global temperature over the CERES time period is about +0.45ºC" which is a reasonable value for global SAT 2001-20 although its best if its derivation was properly explained. But, so good so far.
You then assert that this temperature increase of +0.45ºC is in some way equivalent to +0.9Wm^-2 per 20 yrs. That step does certainly need explaining.
And if that explanation is convincing (warning - that is very unlikely to happen), when that explanation is provided, it would help why the discrepancy between 0.9 and 1.3 can also allow the two to be considered as "an almost perfect fit."And when these "small bites out of albedo apple" have been digested, the relevance of your first question may be more evident.
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blaisct at 04:24 AM on 7 February 2022It's albedo
Ref my @104 and @106 replies
Thanks again for the comments. I can see that I need to take smaller bites out of albedo apple in the CERES data. Let me start with Hans-Rolf Dübal et al 2021 graph of CERES data.
Hans-Rolf Dübal et al 2021 does not have an official albedo change graph (change in sun’s energy out -change in sun’s energy in). The graph above needs to be correct for the small (-0.07 W/m^2/20 years) in coming energy (correction is: -1.3W/m^2/20 years). My post @104 has that correction in a graph. The change in global temperature over the CERES time period is about 0.45’C or -0.9 W/m^2/20 years. Over laying that on the graph above one can see an almost perfect fit (slightly higher slope for CERES data) (can’t show that in this format).
First question: Does an almost perfect fit of global temperature to CERES albedo (in W/m^2) mean albedo is the main cause of global warming for the 20 years of CERES data? (Regardless of what caused the albedo change or the short 20 years of data)
Second question: Should the slope of the albedo graph above be different (flatter) than the actual global temperature if CO2 caused radiative forcing was at work; since, CO2 caused radiative forcing does not use albedo change energy to cause global temperature rise?
Any answer to these questions would help me understand the CERES data before exploring what caused the albedo change in CERES data. -
BaerbelW at 01:29 AM on 7 February 2022Veganism is the best way to reduce carbon emissions
Posting a comment to give credit where credit is due and to ensure that it doesn't fly under the radar:
The current version of this rebuttal (published Feb 2, 2022) is basically a complete rewrite of the earlier text and happened because Klemet offered to work on this task (see his comment above from February 2021). This new version was reviewed by two experts who provided helpful comments in the course of the rewrite.
Thanks for your work on this, Klemet!
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michael sweet at 00:28 AM on 7 February 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #5 2022
The Guardian had an interesting article where they determined how much the temperature had increased since 1895 and since 1970 in different counties in the USA. They determined that the temperature has increased more than 1.5C since 1895 for more than a third of the population. In the southern states many counties have had a decrease in temperature since 1895. The greatest increases were in Alaska where records only go back to 1925. Ventura County in California increased 2.6 C since 1895 (4.7F).
It is expected that warming will not be the same everywhere. The increase in temperatures over land worldwide are greater than the increases over the ocean. The average increase in the USA is about 1 C, which is close to the global average.
It would be interesting to see a similar calculation for places worldwide.
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Jan at 20:07 PM on 6 February 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #5 2022
HI, i read always many of the studies and i write a book on all the changes in the Earth system - so your site is one of my important trackers ;)
And funny so that it's the critical blockchain paper that steered interest.
Just let's say to invent a money that uses up energy when used is in our times one of the stupidest things to do ever :D
If the road to extinction of humanity would not be so said it would be hilarious...
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Doug Bostrom at 10:30 AM on 6 February 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #5 2022
Thank you for your comment, Eric.
My thought is that the authors are pointing to a likely outcome of synthesis of a kind. Market forces in combination with regulation, regulation being our backstop for when human nature fails us and we need to agree to create a virtual "adult in the room" to check our worst impulses.
But mostly I'm here to say that it's great to see somebody reading a paper, tackling a primary source, thinking about implications. That's a major reason for being of NR. You've added energy and impetus to our enterprise— thank you!. :-)
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prove we are smart at 08:08 AM on 6 February 20222022 self-paced run of Denial101x starts on February 8
Skeptical Science was where I gained most of my understanding of global warming quite a few years ago now. Really hoping an informed public will eventually vote in the leaders we deperately need now..
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Eric (skeptic) at 01:07 AM on 5 February 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #5 2022
I read through the linked paper:
Each single Ethereum transaction is estimated to cause 85.47 kgCO2 (29) resulting from the mining devices involved in verifying the transaction, and there were 942,812 NFT sales in the month preceding October 10, 2021. (30) Assuming that NFT transactions on the Ethereum blockchain have the same carbon footprint as other transactions on the Ethereum blockchain, and based on the assumption that 4434 metric tonnes could kill a person unnecessarily, the mining devices needed to verify 51,877 transactions would produce enough emissions to kill a person between 2020 and 2100.
Essentially, in ref 29, they use the transaction cost in Ethereum as a proxy for energy use by estimating the portion of the mining earnings used to purchase energy. Ethereum's own estimate is 84 kWh per transaction https://ethereum.org/en/energy-consumption/ which means about 35 kg CO2 per transaction with natural gas: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11
They assume there are no other benefits to that expense such as other smart contracts being stored in the Ethereum blockchain rather than on paper. I think the most important shortcoming of the paper is the assumption that the marketplace will fail at energy reduction because:
Blockchain developers are, however, cautious to move away from a tried-and-tested blockchain model with its security advantages [12] and acceptable ability to maintain Byzantine fault tolerance [13].
That does not appear to be correct: https://pixelplex.io/blog/top-ten-blockchains-for-nft-development/ With price as a proxy for energy use, there are many orders of magnitude of savings with ethereum competitors. The bottom line is that blockchain tech evolution is not just proof that proof-of-work works, it's proof that marketplace innovation works.
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manzoorhmemon at 15:17 PM on 4 February 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2 2022
A great collection of articles on the focused area of climate change. Really appreciate.
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Bob Loblaw at 03:56 AM on 4 February 2022From the eMail Bag: a review of a paper by Ziskin and Shaviv
DesmogBlog's entry on Shaviv now has a link to this blog post....
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:17 AM on 3 February 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
Evan @10
That presentation of thoughts is indeed aligned with my current thinking, which I openly admit is ‘not the norm’, and which is open to improvement.
The following may be more than needs to be presented as further clarification. It should not change your understanding. But it leads to other thoughts related to nigelj’s point @8 and your comment @9 about the magnitude of impacts that are presented in the newer version of the SkS Analogy 1. I plan to make comments about that there.
The basis for my thoughts is what I would call ‘idealized ethics’. My thinking is based on Professional Engineering Ethics which are fairly thoroughly presented in the APEGA Guideline for Ethical Practice, supplemented significantly by the more fundamental ethical considerations developed and shared by Derek Parfit in his effort to develop a secular understanding of ethics that he presented in his 1984 book Reasons and Persons (and lots of other ethics related reading – including the basis for the Sustainable Development Goals).
I would clarify ‘idealized ethics’ to be: An ideal governing objective for human thoughts and actions in order to develop sustainable improving conditions for the diversity of humanity and its diversity of civilizations living as sustainable parts of the robust diversity of life on this planet now and into the distant future. That understandably includes the correction of harmful developed systems and activity and making amends for the harm done.
And I would currently briefly express the best way to achieve that ‘ideal objective’ as: Pursuing increased awareness and improved understanding in order to constantly learn to: Do No Harm and Help Others, especially helping those who have been or are being harmed.
I consider the ‘current norm’ discussions of ethics and related ‘development and application of rule of law’ (and the history of ethics and rule of law discussion) to have been harmfully compromised by the developed systems or ‘games of pursuit of personal benefit and perceptions of superiority relative to Others’. That competition can lead people to evaluate the Greater Good for current living humans without proper consideration of future humans (refer to the ways that people like Lord Monckton tried to justify more harm being done to future generations by significantly discounting, and underestimating, the future harm), and with harm being done to portions of the current population (see the ways that many people try to argue against ‘the more fortunate being obliged to help the less fortunate’). And the harm being done is also poorly justified, including claims that the perceived benefits obtained by those who benefit outweigh the perceptions they have of the harm done. The people who benefit most from the harmful activity can also be seen to misleadingly claim that people who are harmed are also benefiting so it is All is for the Greater Good (from the perspective of the people who benefit the most).
A key Ethical understanding is that Do No Harm means that no Person is to be ‘net-harmed’ by an action. Medical ethics are a clear example of that understanding.
Also note that future humans, and many less fortunate current day humans, have little or no influence. They lack legal standing, cannot vote, and cannot effectively question or challenge what is being done that alters the conditions or environment that the people being harmed have to deal with.
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nigelj at 06:55 AM on 2 February 2022From the eMail Bag: a review of a paper by Ziskin and Shaviv
Bob, yes I think you were wise to stick to the paper itself. I assumed you would have known his history anyway. We can raise that sort of thing in the comments.
I'm just intrigued by what makes these denialist / very sceptical characters tick psychologically, probably partly because I did a couple of psychology papers at university.
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Philippe Chantreau at 03:15 AM on 2 February 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
I know that the Covid discussion is irking moderation but I can not let David-acct's comment stand, as it is profoundly wrong. The CDC said that vaccination was a safer and more dependable way to acquire immunity. The data available is consistent with that statement, the statement is completely factual. Catching the disease can be deadly, and if it is a mild form, the patient may not acquire immunity. Although the vaccine acquired immunity may not perform as well as naturally acquired, it is still enough to prevent the severe form in the immense majoity of cases, and it is a far better way to protect the population.
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michael sweet at 00:07 AM on 2 February 2022From the eMail Bag: a review of a paper by Ziskin and Shaviv
Hi Bob,
It is nice to see your posts again at SkS. They always inform based on the science.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:28 PM on 1 February 2022From the eMail Bag: a review of a paper by Ziskin and Shaviv
Yes, Shaviv is well-known in that area. He also has a DesmogBlog profile:
https://www.desmog.com/nir-shaviv/
I tried to stick to the paper itself in the review, letting it stand (or die) on its own. There is lots more wrong with it than I had room for - what I've written about is enough, I think.
You can always ask questions about the parts that need more explaining. You probably won't be the only one.
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nigelj at 18:39 PM on 1 February 2022From the eMail Bag: a review of a paper by Ziskin and Shaviv
Thanks Bob for the appraisal. I don't know enough physics to follow all of it, but I got something out of it, and I can see some of the flaws.
Did a quick google search on Nir J. Shaviv. The name was familiar: He routinely minimises affects of CO2, has links to Heartland Institute and GWPF, and supports websites like WUWT and Jo Nova, believes CO2 is plantfood, is sceptical of measures to control covid 19 pandemic, promotes nuclear power.
The complete classic package of a typical climate change denier. Almost textbook. Its almost a personality type. It always seems to include the same range of things and same leanings, spanning not just climate, but energy systems and covid issues and other things.
Not remotely surprised. Doesn't mean his paper is necessarily wrong, but it sure suggests dont take it at face value.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nir_Shaviv#Rejection_of_human-caused_climate_change
sciencebits.com/GWPseudoScience
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Evan at 06:11 AM on 1 February 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
Michael, we have two ponds. If you get tired of wading/swimming/surfing to your car, come join us. We'll build by one pond, you by the other.
Just bring lots of bug spray and warm clothes. :-)
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michael sweet at 05:21 AM on 1 February 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
Evan,
I am surprised that you found ocean front land in Minnesota ;-)!! Future flooding will be different for you than for me in Florida.
I agree with you completely. Pictures of ocean front condos in Miami with people wading to their cars tell me that sea level rise is already a big problem. Developers have just not acknowledged it yet. I live in Tampa, Florida. The newspaper just ran a story of how many billions of dollars of real estate will be endangered by the next category 1 hurricane (we do not need a category 5 to do great damage). Every centimeter counts when you are wading to your car.
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Evan at 03:50 AM on 1 February 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
More sobering than the interview with Eric Rignot is something that Richard Alley said. Up to 20 ft SLR is possible by 2100. Richard Alley is as professional and careful as climate scientists come. So when he says something like that. Well, er, what can you say.
We sit and drink coffee and have picnics and go on about our lives, pretty much as normal, while CO2 rises 250 times faster than the most recent deglaciation. Just numbers. Just data. But each year the rate continues to increase. We are not wired to comprehend such a non-linear system. We would be wise to listen to people like Profs Rignot and Alley, who are tuned into what might be a very nasty non-linear response.
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Evan at 03:47 AM on 1 February 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
Funny you should say that Michael. 25 years ago we bought a large wetland area in Minnesota. At the tiime it was cheap because wetlands were considered one step above a garbage dump. Now we realize the value of wetlands for absorbing large quantities of water. Even though we are planning to build a house just 5 ft above the normal high-water mark, we have no concerns about current or future flooding.
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michael sweet at 03:27 AM on 1 February 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
Evan,
The interview of Eric Rignot is sobering reading. Don't buy land near the ocean if you want it to retain value in the future.
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Evan at 23:23 PM on 31 January 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
OPOF Thank you for your comments. As a result of this discussion, I am going to modify the text in an upcoming post. I think the essence of what you're saying is that whereas many are fearing the arrival of catastrophic effects of climate change, what you are saying, I think, is that catastrophic effects have already arrived for many, because even a "modest" sea level rise of 1 ft/100 years, which we've already experienced, represents a catastrophe for many. For those who have not yet felt the effects of climate change, we need to emphasize that others have already been affected, that we need to acknowledge that fact, and to provide assistance to those already affected.
Catastrophic climate change in the sense of a global response will be when the catatrophe already felt by many spreads to a critical fraction of the global population so as to limit the ability of the global community to provide meaningful assistance to those with the greatest needs. In this sense, we are already experiencing catastrophic climate change. The real question might be how much we can tolerate before our ability to properly respond as a global community is severely impaired.
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Evan at 06:49 AM on 31 January 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
FWIW, here is an interview with Eric Rignot, an expert on SLR.
The lower end currently discussed is 3 ft/100 years, with 1 ft/10 years a distinct possibility. At this point we may just be passengers on a lumbering freight train. It's taken us this long to get it rolling. We are not likely to stop it very quickly.
Although I agree with you OPOF that even 1 ft/100 years is too much for some people, I think that at this point we are talking semantics. What your point really clarifies is the delicate balance that defines so much of life on this blue marble, the great care that is needed to protect it, and our responsibility to help each other.
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nigelj at 06:17 AM on 31 January 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
OPOF @7
"All I am saying is that the current reality is the result of the unethical lack of action by the wealthy and powerful, especially through the past 30 years."
Fine agreed. Its certainly in large part due to that.
"1ft of sea level increase per 100 years needs to be declared to be the future disaster that it is."
I just dont see 1 foot of sea level rise per 100 years as a future disaster. Its not great, but it would be possible to adapt to. And we have had about 1 foot of sea level rise last century. Anything above 1 foot per century becomess very hard to adapt to.
I'm assuming here we get enough control over the climate problem that 1 foot per century doesn't go on for millenia and create hugely significant loss of land.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:27 AM on 31 January 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
Evan and nigelj,
All I am saying is that the current reality is the result of the unethical lack of action by the wealthy and powerful, especially through the past 30 years.
1ft of sea level increase per 100 years needs to be declared to be the future disaster that it is. That is the way to strengthen the argument that more harm done is even less acceptable. It also leads to the understanding that current day humanity needs to be aggressively implementing CO2 removal technology (and making sure that it is harmless) even if that is not popular or profitable (and doing that while sustainably improving the lives of the least fortunate).
An Ethical Perspective requires developed perceptions of wealth and prosperity (and superiority) today to be understood to be the destructive unsustainable reality that they are.
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michael sweet at 01:54 AM on 31 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
David-acct:
I note that you have linked no sources to support your wild claims. It is typical for people who believe misinformation that they do not link to credible sources to support their claims.
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Eclectic at 23:57 PM on 30 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
David-acct @11 :-
Once again, I must respectfully beg to disagree ~ for I think you are being too idealistic, and you are basing your ideas on the older & simpler world of the pre-internet. It is good-hearted of you, but you are not being sufficiently cynical about human nature.
The last 20 years of "internet" have revealed the result of this novel & unplanned experiment in social interactions. And the resulting data are very ugly ~ and so it is time for you to revise your opinions and modify your ideals pragmatically.
The case of Philippe Chantreau & the CDC advice is very much a special case: a case of a short-term situation, where imperfect decisions (imperfect in hindsight) are taken in the heat of battle.
In the long-term . . . for example climate science . . . there is time for the science to become more "settled". And we have the benefit of decades of hindsight & progress of knowledge. The science-deniers & conspiracy-theorists have had a grand "field day" for the whole two years of the pandemic, and they have done immense harm in the short run. And they are still continuing to do great harm to future generations, by opposing action against AGW.
David, I gather you find any type of restriction to be somewhat distasteful. That's understandable, to a degree. But now it has become necessary to actively choose the lesser of two evils. I am sure you know the old saying :- "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."
Here endeth the lecture for the first month. And best wishes for the rest of 2022, David.
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David-acct at 22:03 PM on 30 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
I concur that the covid discussion is off topic from climate science, though my point remains the same.
A tremendous amount of information is treated as misinformation because it doesnt fit the censors bias. As a result, far more good information is and will be censored and/or treated is misinformation.
Phillippe comment "the CDC statement is justified because ..." is based on trying to get the preferred result even though the CDC statement is now known to be inaccurate. That is a good example of treating factually accurate statements as misinformation
In summary, censoring misinformation in the long term will be far more damaging to the advancement of science. Think back in history with prior censoring of information, it has never been pretty.
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nigelj at 07:41 AM on 30 January 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
OPOF said: "I would say it is unethical to state that "Sea level rise of 1ft/100 years is doable".
I disagree. Look at it this way. If burning fossil fuels and so global warming was only going to cause at worst 1 foot of sea level rise per century, and for example mild effects on our weather I wouldn't be too worried. We could adapt easily enough. Therefore its hard to see an ethical issue of any substance. And apply some reductio ad absurdum and consider if it was only one inch of sea level rise per century. Would anyone seriously argue this is unsustainable or unethical?
The big issue to me is this. The advantages of using fossil fuels would arguably outweigh that small 1 foot level of sea level rise per century. The one argument against all this is loss of land area building up over time. It would probably depend on just how extensive that was, but everything humans do affects the environment, so we have to make these unpleasant trade offs.
The point I'm making is there is likely to be a level of anthropogenic sea level rise per century and also in total over time that is essentially insignificant. And a level that is seriously problematic.
Of course thats all somewhat academic in the sense we are likely to cause much more than 1 foot per century of sea level rise per century, and for several centuries, and this is unsustainably fast and certainly unethical to try to justify it.
Normally I do tend to mainly agree with OPOFs views.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:13 AM on 30 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
Supporting documentation:
- About non seroconverting populations: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33235985/
- About other aspects discussed, this brief is from October 2021:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/vaccine-induced-immunity.html
According to available data, vaccine is the rational choice, without a doubt.
Moderator Response:[BL]. This Covid discussion is starting to get a bit off the topic of the blog post, which is disinformation and why people believe in it. Although Covid is an example of a situation where misinformation is common, can all participants please try to keep the discussion focused on the general characteristics of and response to misinformation, rather than debating Covid 19? The focus of this web site is the battle against climate disinformation.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:58 AM on 30 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
There is a lot to consider when comparing the protection from COVID-19 that is provided by vaccination vs. contracting the disease unvaccinated.
In addition to what has already been mentioned:
- A different type of protection is developed by recombinant vaccine, mRNA vaccine, or contracting the illness.
- The level of protection developed from contracting the disease is related to the severity of the disease. Getting a mild case of COVID-19 does not necessarily provide robust protection from reinfection.
It would appear that the best case of protection is provided by getting mixed vaccinated (recombinant plus mRNA) then contracting COVID-19. But that is impractical to scientifically rigorously investigate.
What is quite certain is that vaccination is incredibly helpful.
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Philippe Chantreau at 02:09 AM on 30 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
About Covid, it should be pointed that infection does not always result in seroconversion (i.e. development of antibodies and improved immunity). The natural vs vaccine immunity discussions pertain to people who do seronconvert. The more contagious Omicron makes it more likely that non seroconverted people will be re-infected.
The CDC statement about natural vs vaccine acquired immunity is justified because relying on the infection to develop immunity entails the risk to experience the severe form of the disease, leading to hospitalization, intensive care and/or death. I believe that it has also been shown that vaccination led to higher seroconversion rates than infections.
Although some risk factors have clearly been identified (obesity by far the most consistently associated with severe disease), a significant number of people without clear risk factors develop severe disease. However, natural immunity alone has been shown to be superior to vaccine acquired immunity alone. The highest level of protection is natural+vaccine, which is why even people who have had the disease should vaccinate (twice the protection).
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michael sweet at 00:28 AM on 30 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
Reading my previous comment it is unclear.
The people in the intensive care units in the USA today are overwhelmingly people who are unvaccinated. They first contacted Delta covid or another variety. Now they are in the ICU with omicron. If natural immunity was as good as vaccination there would be as many vaccinated people in the ICU as unvaccinated people who contracted delta covid.
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michael sweet at 23:46 PM on 29 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
David-ACCT
We see immediately the problem with letting people decide themselves what is accurate scientific information. Your statement "another example is the better natural immunity acquired from infection vs from the vaccine" is completely false.
According to the CDC website today "FACT: Getting a COVID-19 vaccination is a safer and more dependable way to build immunity to COVID-19 than getting sick with COVID-19." source At the hospital where my brother works in California yesterday there were 12 people with covid in the intensive care unit. None had been vaccinated. Most of them would have had delta covid. The New York Times says about 70% of the population in California is double vaccinated. If natural immunty was as good as vaccination we would expect over 70% of the ICU to be vaccinated individuals.
It was reported recently in The Guardian that "Fauci said unvaccinated people were 10 times more likely to test positive for Covid-19, 17 times more likely to be hospitalised and 20 times more likely to die." The overwhelming majority of the unfaccinated have contracted covid. Obviously your statement that natural immunity is better than vaccination is completely false. Please link to credible sources to support your wild claim.
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Evan at 23:10 PM on 29 January 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
OPOF@3 The World (as embodied by the IPCC and the COPs) has declared that the ideal is holding the line at 1.5C. At that level, we will certainly have 1 ft/100 years for a long time. If not more. If not much much more.
Meltwater Pulse 1A saw sea level rise of 1 ft/10 years when CO2 rose at 1 ppm/100 years and had only risen 10's of ppm. Even if we hold to 400 ppm (1.5C), that represents 120 ppm CO2 added much much faster than during Melwater Pulse 1A. Do we really think that we can limit sea-level rise to any better than 1 ft/100 years?
I care about the plight of others and I share your sentiment. It is well stated. But we are in a situation now where the developed countries need to adapt quickly enough and stay strong enough to help those who will be affected by climate change. At 1 ft/100 years we can probably do that, although there is still the question if we have the will to do that. At 1 ft/10 years it is questionable if developed countries will even have the resouces to help themselves, much less anyone else.
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nigelj at 06:59 AM on 29 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
Just for clarity I very much doubt invermectin would do any good. There are most likely other explanations why areas that have used invermectin have had shorter covid waves.
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nigelj at 06:51 AM on 29 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
I basically agree with Eclectics views on misinformation and how to deal with it. I believe there are good ways of responding to misinformation that don't suppress potentially good information. For example a website open to public comments might publish suspicious looking information by just annexing a note to it saying "the information may not be reliable, and that the official data, (or published research, or whatever) says xyz". Comments promoting invermectin could be handled that way.
But I do think that blatant trolling nonsense (eg covid vaccines kill millions of people ) should just be deleted or not published. Lives are at stake, and a small number of fools spamming websites with such information can do a lot of damage.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:41 AM on 29 January 2022SkS Analogy 1 - Speed Kills: How fast are we going?
Evan @3,
I would say it is unethical to state that "Sea level rise of 1ft/100 years is doable".
It is unethical to suggest that a portion of the current population should be allowed to benefit from a harmful activity that, from their perspective, appears to be an acceptable imposition of harm on others and all of the future of humanity. There are already island nations that have had centuries of sustainable living be ruined by the small sea level rise that has already occurred. And many other low lying areas are already harmfully impacted. And the sea level rise is only a part of the total climate change impact problem.
A potentially justified version of that thinking is:
The least fortunate can 'exclusively' be helped to live better, at least decent, lives by a short-term transition involving understandably unsustainable and harmful activity.
The fuller understanding of that version is that the people who are not less fortunate should be helping the least fortunate and ensuring that no lasting negative consequences are produced. That would involve the current day wealthy, all of them - not just the ones who care, doing whatever is required to neutralize the negative impacts of the short-term actions taken to help the least fortunate live decent lives. That would mean 'not accepting' a level of harm done to future generations, because excusing harm done is an ethically slippery slope to 'no future for humanity'.
That is also an ideal. But the understanding needs to be that anything short of that ideal is 'understandably unacceptable, not excusable'. And everybody needs to appreciate that reality and the constant need to investigate and correct what has developed to limit, and correct for, harm done.
The challenge of today is the reality that a lot of what has developed is harmfully over-developed, especially in the supposedly superior nations on this planet. Undoing all that harmful over-development, and repairing the damage done, is required for humanity to have a sustainable improving future.
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Climate's changed before
How valid is the claim, in refuting man-made climate change, that the Earth's climate has changed before?
Your honor, I can’t be convicted of murder.
You see, people have been dying since before I was born.
So death is a natural thing, not caused by me. And probably nothing to worry about.Plus, you can’t prove that I killed that guy.
Sure, I stabbed him, but all you can prove is that this caused localized cell death at the micro scale, not that it caused him to die.
People survive stabbings all the time, in fact, stabbing a scalpel in people is often healthy, doctors do it all the time!
I only stabbed 0.4% of his body, so it can’t be an issue, my stab is barely 3% of his body cavities.And the models are so unreliable.
Doctors can’t even predict with 100% accuracy if someone will survive a surgery or not, how can they claim to suddenly know that this particular stab was bad?
Science has been wrong before!
So you see, I can’t be convicted of murder.Now stop trying to push this radical anti-stabbing agenda.
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Eclectic at 23:51 PM on 28 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
@2 : "The point is that attempting suppress missinformation [sic] is going to wind up suppressing good information. The normal free exchange of ideas is going to have far better results in the long term." [unquote]
Umm, not so sure about that, David-acct. It is a fine Utopian idea, but does it actually reflect reality? (Mind, I am not trying to argue the opposite!)
Until about 20 years ago, I would have agreed with your proposition. But new evidence has shown itself. Nowadays, on the multiple platforms of the public internet, the river (flood?) of informational flow has become highly toxic.
Is this toxicity (a blend of nastiness and intellectual insanity) merely an expression of the vices of basic human nature ~ or do the modern open-slather communications simply fan the flames, turning the usual small grass fires into a wildfire of vast extent? (If we are lucky, this nastiness could all turn out to be cyclic in human history ~ a swing of the social pendulum. But the cynic would say no. )
Perhaps this issue could be better assessed by a panel of historians, who would look at the advent of general literacy . . . yellow journalism . . . partisan propaganda . . . fascism/communism . . . atrocities, pogroms and genocides . . . etcetera. The whole picture, over centuries.
IMO : the best social result is achieved not by extremes of "freedom" or extremes of "suppression" ~ but by a middle course, where there is a degree of filtering or damping of the system. This, perhaps rather easy to achieve say half a century ago, provided you had a foundation of probity in journalism of mainstream media. But now, in a time of increased partisanship & tribal hatreds and unfiltered public access?
David, my argument derives from examining the functioning of living organisms, where complete "freedom" is incompatible with long term survival at the cellular level. We must look at the evolved biological mechanism ~ and not allow our thinking to be distracted by word-labels and ideological rhetorical slogans.
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David-acct at 14:03 PM on 28 January 2022Why people believe misinformation and resist correction
The problem of misinformation is a problem on both sides to the political spectrum. We are really better off long term with the free exchange of Ideas.
Misinformation with Covid was brought up in this article which is a prime example of supressing good information in the name of stopping misinformation. Take Ivermectin for example, virtually no study shows that Ivermectin is an effective treatment for covid (which i concur) but at the same time several regions of the world with heavy invermectin usage for other illnesses have had much shorter waves and those waves have had much lower population levels. Medical research should be spent trying to discover the cause of the much smaller waves.
Another example is the better natural immunity acquired from infection vs from the vaccine. That difference was well known and well documented in the medical literature since August 2021, yet the CDC kept insisting that the vax was better until last week when the CDC finally acknowledged what was known 6 months earlier.
The point is that attempting suppress missinformation is going to wind up suppressing good information. The normal free exchange of ideas is going to have far better results in the long term.
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