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Comments 48401 to 48450:

48401. curiousd at 00:18 AM on 24 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       To Rockytom at 5....Is it possible for me to get your e mail address and do it that way?

       I have communicated with John Cook in the past and he therefore knows my e mail address and could give it to you. You could then e mail me and I can proceed.

48402. michael sweet at 23:33 PM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       I find the observation that Kansas' average wheat yield is lower than Texas very interesting.  Does anyone have references to peer reviewed papers that shows this is due to the heat in Texas and not soil, water or other causes?  This must be covered in the peer reviewed literature. I agree with Chris G that since we are already close to 1C what should we expect the averaqge yield to be in Kansas in the coming decade?

48403. Composer99 at 23:06 PM on 23 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       John Brookes:

       Having some idea of how climate science works is probably essential, even for non-science students. This should allow them to steer clear of misinformation and manufactured doubt. It would also be a corrective to the kind of climate "science" classes being taught by, TIm Patterson & Tom Harris at Carleton University over the last few years.

48404. Composer99 at 23:02 PM on 23 February 2013
       2013 SkS News Bulletin #1: Alberta Tar Sands, Keystone XL Pipeline, and Forward on Climate Rally
       

       jyushchyshyn:

       Anyone could claim "stopping fossil fuel development X will not stop global warming" and be correct for any single fossil fuel development.

       However, if such an excuse is allowed to stand for the aggregate of fossil fuel developments under consideration, then we will have failed to achieve any sort of decarbonisation whatsoever.

       Suffice to say, such an unproductive course of action is unwise.

48405. John Brookes at 22:42 PM on 23 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       I take a great interest in climate change, but I have not studied it.  I am willing to live with holes in my basic knowledge, but someone who studies this at university should not have such holes.  Not in the basics.  

       A unit on climate science should be taught to students who are already well versed in physics and maths.  In the Australian university system, this would be at the second year level.  It would provide a great opportunity for students to apply their physics and maths skills. And a textbook that covers the basics of climate science at that level would be a major asset.  

       Of course you could teach a version of climate science to non-science students, but while such students would get a good appreciation, I don't really see the point, as they would not have the foundations on which to build - so it would only be a superficial understanding.

48406. curiousd at 17:09 PM on 23 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       Hi Rockytom at 5,

        

       I am not an SKS author, in that I have not yet authored a lead post.

48407. chriskoz at 16:30 PM on 23 February 2013
       2013 SkS News Bulletin #1: Alberta Tar Sands, Keystone XL Pipeline, and Forward on Climate Rally
       

       jyushchyshyn,

       The bottom issue with this pipeline (also expressed by Mike Mann on his FB page) is that it will widen the bottleneck of Alberta tar sand mining operations, potentially making the operation of retrieval all of that tar sand (including EROI of only 2.9:1) economically viable. The insuing exploitation has the potential of 0.5K global warming.

       I would go further with my comment here: this is the investement fosterring more FF extraction. With every infrastructure investment like this, the longer and better it serves its purpose (i.e. the more tar sand oil it tranports) the better its economic return value. We want all investments to have the best returns. But in this case, it is in contradiction to the assertions by scientists that all high-emission FF should be left in the ground.

       The issue has nothing to do with your assertions about what OPEC nations are doing or about oil spills from tankers.

48408. Chris G at 16:02 PM on 23 February 2013
       Sheffield vs. Dai on Drought Changes
       

       On that last bit, I was possibly remembering something incorrectly.  I had thought I'd read something to the effect that Hadley Cells could be expected to expand 2-4 degrees of latitude per degree C of warming, but I haven't found that again, and the estimates of expected expansion I did find were substantially lower.  What I found was that Hadley Cells have expanded 5-8 degrees since 1979 (Seidel, et al 2008), but that, while that is greater what is expected with natural variability, that is also more than what is expected, based on GCMs, from greenhouse gas warming alone.

48409. jyushchyshyn at 16:00 PM on 23 February 2013
       2013 SkS News Bulletin #1: Alberta Tar Sands, Keystone XL Pipeline, and Forward on Climate Rally
       

       Stopping the Keystone Pipeline will not stop global warming, nor will building it stop people from driving electric cars or installing solar panels on the homes. OPEC oil is not green. The amount of natural gas which OPEC nations flare is enough to supply the combined needs of Germany and France. And it would be good to end the threat of oil spills from oil tankers.

48410. chriskoz at 15:56 PM on 23 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       actualy thughtful@4,

       You seem to imply that this single textbook is improper because "The subject is too vast, and [...] any given book will have its POV".

       Therefore you don't understand the definition of a textbook. It's not an opinion piece. It's a comprehensive review of the consensus peer reviewed science. The important studies (including those of your preference) that constitute said consensus would be refered therein for interested student to pursue. But the bottomline is, there must be a common summary of settled knowledge that any further studies are not going to change. I think that this textbook (although I haven't read it) covers just such knowledge; there is enough climagte science knowledge accumulated during 200+y to cover 500+ pages of that book. Every teacher will tell you that such book if well written if far better reference point rather than a set of "recently pulled studies".
       

48411. curiousd at 13:56 PM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       With respect to post 11 by William, you might be interested in my post 23 in the thread "In Wall Street Journal OP-Ed, Bjorn Lomborg urges delay with misleading stats". I include history and references on the same kind of problem in the U.S., with specific legislation documentation. I imply that power companies being forced to make a profit is the heart of much of this problem. There is an obvious solution to this impediment to renewables.

48412. curiousd at 13:17 PM on 23 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       Hi Rockytom,

       I am reading carefully through the text. Since there will presumably be another edition, are you interested in suggested corrections? If so, how to do this? Clearly this blog post is not the place. I will mention only one. In chapter 1 it is stated on page 15 that "The first decade of the twentieth century was even warmer than the last decade of the twentieth century ......." You do not mean this since the 20th century extends from Jan 1, 1901 to Dec 31, 2000. You mean the twenty first century.

       This is niggling, but there are others. If you are interested in a thorough proofing from a garden variety condensed matter experimentalist and can tell me how to do this I will proceed, carefully, chapter by chapter.

       Moderator Response: [rockytom] I did catch that one and the misspelling of Barack's name. I'm sure there are others. I would appreciate a careful, objective reading such as you are suggesting and am wondering how best to receive your comments, suggestions, and corrections. This is certainly not the place. Are you an SkS author?
48413. actually thoughtful at 11:53 AM on 23 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       Really not buying this. A single book, even with the pedigree offered here, is simply not able to cover the breadth and depth of climate change. MUCH better to pull some recent studies then to rely on a single point of view in a single book.

       While I personally have nothing but the highest regard for John Cook and his work - this post gives the APPEARANCE of impropriety as I suspect the John Cook who founded this site is the SAME John Cook as the book author. 

       Were I to teach climate change I would NOT use a single book - even one as fine as I am sure this one is. The subject is too vast, and as has already been noted - any given book will have its POV, and not address the more pertinent question of "what do we do about it".

       Moderator Response: [rockytom]There is no impropriety here. Indeed it is the same John Cook who co-authored the textbook with me and does a lot of other things too, such as (1)gives public and invited lectures, (2) manages this web site, (3) posts pertinent blogs from time to time, (4)is working towards a Ph.D., (5) has a family, and (6) travels widely doing a variety of things. Since when is it improper to do so many positive things for so many people?
48414. curiousd at 11:40 AM on 23 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       Thank You, Rockytom 

         I have occasionally seen in text books - perhaps as part of a preface - statements to the effect...."We recognize that all our chapters may not be capable of being included is a one semester course....etc".  But then..."  If such and such is to be emphasized, one could omit chapters W  and Y......etc"., thus giving the potential novice instructor something to go on in planning the course using Farmer and Cook. In the meantime I will do some "digging around for the cause"....We have here in Connecticut an environmental science major....I wonder, if even in that major, is there a climate change course even taught? I can also try digging around in the course offering listings of similar schools such as University of Massachusetts, and I will let you know on one of these threads what I find out.

         (David Archer runs a famous climate course from the University of Chicago for nonscience majors of course, but the kinds of students they get and the kinds of students we get at our state land grant school, especially  in the case of  non science majors, cannot be compared).

         As far as high schools are concerned, there I suspect that a serious problem is that some  instructors may fear retribution if they teach global warming.  Perhaps I can dig out something concrete in terms of data on this question, though it would have to be through an anonymously answered questionnaire and there I have to make sure I will not run into difficulty myself by trying such an approach. Finally, I would not be surprised if the problems with getting sane AGW teaching and sane AGW policy in the States might be uniquely pernicious.  Not in Connecticut, but in a large fraction of this country, we have people pushing variants of "Creationist Science" onto the high schools.  And if one really does not believe in Darwinian Natural Selection, it is most unlikely one will believe in AGW.

          

       Moderator Response: [rockytom] I agree with the possibility of "pressure" in teaching climate science. However, overwhelming scientific evidence cannot be allowed to be subverted by those who deny climate change. Scientists (and not just climate scientists) are speaking out loud and clear. It's not just Jim Hansen any more!
48415. Chris G at 09:56 AM on 23 February 2013
       Sheffield vs. Dai on Drought Changes
       

       Attempting a comment migration, copying relevant comments from another thread.

        

       Clyde at 15:11 PM on 22 February, 2013

       ubrew12 says - The bizarre truth is that Heartland farmers in Kansas are only now in business thanks to 'Big Government'-backed farm insurance programs that tax the ordinary American to help them through their global-warming-induceddrought.

       
       Wheres the proof GW caused the drought?

        

       Rob Honeycutt at 15:38 PM on 22 February, 2013

       Clyde...  It's a matter of relative chance.  It's possible you'd see such an extraordinary drought without influence from global warming.  But global warming makes it much more likely that such extraordinary doughts will occur.  

       So, you kind of have two choices.  This was an extreme occurence and unlikely to occur again for a long time, or this is a function of human induced changes in theclimate system and more likely to become more frequent, or even normal.

       You choose where you're going to put your money.

        

       DSL at 23:16 PM on 22 February, 2013

       Try Johanson & Fu (2009), Clyde.  Here's the abstract (emphasis mine): 

       "Observations show that the Hadley cell has widened by about 2°–5° since 1979. This widening and the concomitant poleward displacement of the subtropical dry zones may be accompanied by large-scale drying near 30°N and 30°S. Such drying poses a risk to inhabitants of these regions who are accustomed to established rainfall patterns. Simple and comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs) indicate that the Hadley cell may widen in response to global warming, warming of the west Pacific, or polar stratospheric cooling. The combination of these factors may be responsible for the recent observations. But there is no study so far that has compared the observed widening to GCM simulations of twentieth-century climate integrated with historical changes in forcings. Here the Hadley cell widening is assessed in currentGCMs from historical simulations of the twentieth century as well as future climate projections and preindustrial control runs. The authors find that observed widening cannot be explained by natural variability. This observed widening is also significantly larger than in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. These results illustrate the need for further investigation into the discrepancy between the observed and simulated widening of the Hadley cell."

       Chris G at 06:41 AM on 23 February, 2013

       ...

       the average bushels of wheat per acre for Texas is 30, Oklahoma 35, Kansas 40, Nebraska 44(?).  Not even counting an increase in extreme heat anddrought events, we are looking at somewhere in the vicinity of a 25% loss in productivity as the Kansas climate becomes more like Texas.  It's mind-boggling how they can not see this as being bad for the local economy.  But, if you ask one of our politicians, Moran for example, he will tell you he does not support a carbon tax because he believes it will hurt the economy.  (Face-palm)

       ...

       The middle of the area growing wheat in Kansas is about the 38th parallel; the middle of the area growing wheat in Texas is about the 34th parallel.  So, if we can expect climate zone shifts coinciding with Hadley cell shifts, then Kansas becomes like Texas at just over 1 degree C of warming, give or take.

       I realize it is not that simple; I'm just looking for a ballpark figure.

       Hmm, since we are approaching 1 degree already, that would mean that the current drought/heat wave is more likely the new normal rather than an exceptional event.  That's a little frightening.

48416. Chris G at 09:15 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       Hmm, since we are approaching 1 degree already, that would mean that the current drought/heat wave is more likely the new normal rather than an exceptional event.  That's a little frightening.

48417. Chris G at 09:11 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       Curiosity driven follow-up:

       The middle of the area growing wheat in Kansas is about the 38th parallel; the middle of the area growing wheat in Texas is about the 34th parallel.  So, if we can expect climate zone shifts coinciding with Hadley cell shifts, then Kansas becomes like Texas at just over 1 degree C of warming, give or take.

       I realize it is not that simple; I'm just looking for a ballpark figure.

48418. Philippe Chantreau at 07:57 AM on 23 February 2013
       2013 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Prediction
       

       All right Kevin, if I read you correctly you're saying that the 2012 happened because it's been really warm in the Arctic for years and that whenever there is small "recovery" of the se ice, it is drowned in the staggering loes of the not so food years. Makes sense.

48419. rockytom at 07:28 AM on 23 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       [rockytom] Curiousd, I know the limitations of being able to cover all significant topics in a one-semester course.  It is an even greater problem in a one-quarter course.  However, some chapters in the Farmer and Cook textbook are short and more than one could be covered in one week.  The lack of coverage on renewable energy is due to space and time limitations.  If a third volume in this series comes about (we must finish the second one before contemplating a third), its title will be "Earth's Future Climate" and will emphize renewables, statistics from current usage projected into the future, and IPCC projections for future climate as well as information published between now and then.  Thank you for your well-thought out comment and the italicized recommendation!

48420. Chris G at 07:28 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       ubrew, fwiw, no worries.  I confess to having had very similar thoughts as you express @1.

       Funny, I once spent what I consider wasted hours in a semester-long philosophy of mathmetics class "proving" that 1+1=2; at least, our professor declared it proved at the end of the course.  Call me crazy, but I was willing to accept that particular statement on faith, or perhaps as a tautology.  Now I'm wondering if perhaps another professor would have taught it as unprovable.

48421. ubrew12 at 07:08 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       curiousd@2: I kind of regret that post @1, in the light of day.  However, this topic has gotten so political in my country that it's difficult not, in a weakened moment, to give in to the seduction.  "Making it political" is how doubt is produced, and nowhere is that more evident than on this issue.  How do you put horns on someone as dry as a climatologist?  First paint him 'red'.  Chris G@14 seems a better guide to how political it is, in Kansas, than I am (and, as with all evil, always behind closed doors).  Clyde@4: I have no further evidence than what appears on this website.  If I remember correctly, logicians can't 'prove' that 1+1=2, so we should cut the climatologists some slack.

48422. Chris G at 06:50 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       In fairness, that bit on the Holcomb coal plant was done by a Democratic governor, who replaced Sebelius when she joined the Obama administration.  Sebelius had previously been opposing the plant.

48423. curiousd at 06:49 AM on 23 February 2013
       Why Choose One Textbook for Introductory Climate Change Science Courses?
       

       There is a type of couse offering with the following institutional constraints:

       1. Everything must be covered in one semester. With a week break for Thanksgiving or "Spring Break" one then has 14 weeks.

       2. Since the implications of the science are rather depressing without there being some emphasis on something that can be done, at least half of this one semester course has to be devoted to "What can be done?"  There can be strategies for teaching more than one thing at a time. Thus, the students will be barely conversant with graphs. One can show a graph of corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) in the U.S. and the students will notice fuel economy improved by about 10 - 15 years after the oil embargo in the 1970s. New gas mileage requirements were put onto car manufacturers with about a 10 - 15 year deadline. The students learn about reading a graph and that government action can do good.

       3. In the U.S. the mathematical background of such students, taking the required one semester quantitative course in a large state university, will be on average terrible. One has to teach them how to convert units. Half the class cannot do this. Thus, a problem asking the students  to go from U.S. miles per gallon to European liters per 100 km will be immensely challenging, and at least half the class will miss these problems without special training.

       My favorite innovation.....A "quarter pounder" at McDonalds  is (very approximately) a newtonburger.

       I eventually gave up talking about avogadro's number or moles. To the question ....."How many atoms of carbon are in a 6 gram diamond?" a really common answer is half an atom.

       4. There are 24 chapters to Farmer and Cook, Volume 1 alone and only 14 weeks at the instructor's disposal. So far I see  in Farmer and Cook immense  thoroughness on climate but little coverage of wind power, solar power, nuclear power, or hydropower.

       But the instructor him/herself in the U.S., teaching such a course, is likely to know little  about clmate change at all. Similarly this applies in high schools. For these people, I think Farmer and Cook is the best thing going.

        

48424. Chris G at 06:41 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       OK, so I live in Kansas.  It pains me when these kinds of things happen, and this is not the first time.  For instance, our govenor has declared some of the best areas for wind energy to be natural reserves; thereby, short-circuiting the approval process for the company that wanted to put windmills there. I thought this was odd because he hasn't otherwise been a big supporter of conservation, but then, this is the same government that rushed the coal plant in Holcomb through the approval process in order to get it done before the new EPA mandates took effect.

       The state is predominately Republican, and agriculture is probably the largest industry.  I think we are suffering a result of Republican group-think where they simply can't connect the dots between the economy and the environment, because that would cause them to have thoughts which would be seen as being disloyal to their group.

       I mean, the average bushels of wheat per acre for Texas is 30, Oklahoma 35, Kansas 40, Nebraska 44(?).  Not even counting an increase in extreme heat and drought events, we are looking at somewhere in the vicinity of a 25% loss in productivity as the Kansas climate becomes more like Texas.  It's mind-boggling how they can not see this as being bad for the local economy.  But, if you ask one of our politicians, Moran for example, he will tell you he does not support a carbon tax because he believes it will hurt the economy.  (Face-palm)

48425. Jose_X at 06:39 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       Are we to pass on word to the constituents of Congressman Dennis Hedke that he deep down believes they should not vote since each has only one vote that will have an "insignificant impact on curving" the election?

48426. Composer99 at 05:48 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       Clyde:

       IMO your focus on ubrew12's off-hand comment is derailing the thread.

       Drought in the US midwest is off-topic for this post. There are many other posts on Skeptical Science where attribution of dought can be - and probably already has been - pursued.

       Moderator Response: [DB] Agreed. All further replies to Clyde pertaining to drought should be placed on this thread, not here. Leave a redirect message here as appropriate. Thanks to all for your compliance in this.
48427. Don9000 at 05:21 AM on 23 February 2013
       Putting an End to the Myth that Renewable Energy is too Expensive
       

       Since the posts on this article have slowed, I want to add a comment regarding the construction of nuclear power plants, as an uncle of mine has a vast amount of experience in the field, having worked on many nuclear and fossil fuel-fired plants, and I have had many a chat with him over the years. As a civil engineer with expertise in all things concrete, he experienced a rather dramatic situation back in the mid-1980s, I believe, during the construction of a plant in the midwestern US, I think in Illinois.

       In the middle of the construction of the critical components of the plant, the government-approved supplier of the high-grade sand required for the high strength mix of concrete ran out of the approved sand (despite having supposedly proven to government inspectors that it had enough such sand in its quarry). As my uncle related the story to those of us gathered around the holiday dinner table, the ensuing delay of several months resulted in a cost overrun in the hundreds of millions of dollars, since all the workers involved in the construction operation were contractually entitled to their pay during the wait for a new source of sand to be approved.

       This was merely the biggest and most costly mistake my uncle observed. At different times he pointed out that merely pouring the concrete often involved very costly preparation work and other delays, since many variables--from the exact mix of ingredients to the ambient temperature where it was poured were specified quite exactly in order to guarantee that the concrete would meet the standards. If, for example, the weather was too hot or cold, and there was no way to warm or cool the location of the pour, concrete work had to halt, causing further delays, which in turn often caused additional cost overruns down the line.

       At other times, my uncle noted that seemingly minor mistakes or omissions in the enormously complicated plans for the phsyical buildings associated with a power plant proved quite costly. One he cited was failing to include a particular required cable bundle in the specifications which meant that a major steel beam had to be cut out and re-welded, which was nearly impossible to do while still maintaining the required tensile strength. Another happened when, out of thousands of doors spread throughout one new plant, two doors were switched on the blueprints (a sealable, submarine-style door switched places with a standard office door) and the mistake wasn't discovered till after the concrete had been poured. According to my uncle, these kinds of mistakes were rarely easy to fix--usually because of the technical challenges, but also because of the bureaucracy.

       Finally, he still laments that the industry continued to build the same basic reactor design for decades, even though better designs were on the drawing board, and then compounded this mistake (as he saw it) by instead focusing on arbitrarily changing the little things--like where to route cables or pipes or where to put offices or stairwells or windows or various control rooms, which meant that mistakes kept cropping up and that costs kept increasing, since despite using the same reactor design, his company never could say it built the same plant twice.

       
       I suppose my main point is that building wind farms and solar arrays is not nearly as fraught with such serious potential problems, and the costs of such projects should continue to come down as the builders of the hardware and the installers gain experience. This cost draw-down clearly won't be as quick to happen with the next generation of nuclear plants, as they are likely to experience a vast number of growing pains due to their much greater level of complexity.

48428. william5331 at 05:18 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       I hear this argument ocassionally in New Zealand where I live: that installing renewable energy systems will have an insignificant effect on the world's production of CO₂.  We are a country of 4.3 million (what is the population of Kansas) and should be doing at least our proportional part in reducing the use of fossil fuels.  In fact, since we, like Kansas and the rest of the Western world use 10 times the fossil fuel per capita as the world average, we should be doing 10 times as much.  But forget all that.  Solar panels are now down to the oft quoted $1.00US per nominal watt which puts them in contention with fossil fuels.  They are economically worthwhile to install right now.  The critical factor is the legislative framework around their installation.  The crazy subsidies that Germany and some other European countries give are not necessary.  All that is needed is a system which is fair to both the small installer and the power company.  Most important the government must not try to milk the calf.

       http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2009/09/german-fit-system-brilliant.html

       http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2007/10/excess-energy-what-to-do.html

       http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2009/11/legislation-for-electric-cars.html

48429. Clyde at 05:04 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       The authors conclude that projections of acute and chronic PDSI decline in the twenty-first century are likely an exaggerated indicator for future Great Plains drought severity. Source    Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation 7 that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles8 that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. Source

        To be clear I'm not saying GW did or didn't cause any one drought. As already stated nobody can say for sure. I thought ubrew12 might of had some new info on the matter.
       Moderator Response:

       [DB] As noted below, discussions pertaining to drought should be placed on this thread, not here. Leave a redirect message here as appropriate. Thanks to all for your compliance in this.

       Note: extensive block-quoting, as you do here, is frowned upon by the Comments Policy. Individuals here are expected to paraphrase a referent citation in their own words and include a contextual rationale as the the significance and appropriateness of the citations they furnish.

       Fixed quotation formatting.

48430. dana1981 at 02:30 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       curiousd @2 - as a general rule it's okay to comment on policy but not politics.  For example, 'the Republican Party is blocking climate legislation' is fine, because it's factually true and deals with climate policy and isn't a political attack.  'He opposes climate legislation because he's a Republican' is not okay, because it's purely a political comment.

48431. philipm at 00:06 AM on 23 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       Drilling a new oil well also has “insignificant impact” on energy supply, but they still do it.

48432. DSL at 23:51 PM on 22 February 2013
       It's not happening
       

       On the comment stream at Alex Knapp's Forbes blog:

       Daniel Fisher (Forbes staff): "I am not sure the debate is over whether the climate is warming – obviously it has been getting warmer since the last Ice Age, which was a very short time ago. The question is whether that increase is accelerating in a non-random way, and the acceleration is caused by the measured increase in atmospheric CO2. Does this new method help unravel that?"

       Bob Tisdale: "That would be difficult to show for a couple of reasons. First, the hypothesis of manmade global warming is only supported by general circulation models, which are known to be imperfect representations of the Earth’s climate systems. Second, that hypothesis is not supported by NOAA’s satellite-era sea surface temperature data or by NOAA’s ocean heat content data since 1955."

       Is Tisdale paid? 

48433. DSL at 23:16 PM on 22 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       Try Johanson & Fu (2009), Clyde.  Here's the abstract (emphasis mine): 

       "Observations show that the Hadley cell has widened by about 2°–5° since 1979. This widening and the concomitant poleward displacement of the subtropical dry zones may be accompanied by large-scale drying near 30°N and 30°S. Such drying poses a risk to inhabitants of these regions who are accustomed to established rainfall patterns. Simple and comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs) indicate that the Hadley cell may widen in response to global warming, warming of the west Pacific, or polar stratospheric cooling. The combination of these factors may be responsible for the recent observations. But there is no study so far that has compared the observed widening to GCM simulations of twentieth-century climate integrated with historical changes in forcings. Here the Hadley cell widening is assessed in current GCMs from historical simulations of the twentieth century as well as future climate projections and preindustrial control runs. The authors find that observed widening cannot be explained by natural variability. This observed widening is also significantly larger than in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. These results illustrate the need for further investigation into the discrepancy between the observed and simulated widening of the Hadley cell."

48434. CBDunkerson at 22:54 PM on 22 February 2013
       2013 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Prediction
       

       If we look at the extent (length x width / concentration) trend the ice will be gone in ~20 years.
       If we look at the area (length x width) trend the ice will be gone in ~10 years.
       If we look at the volume (length x width x thickness) trend the ice will be gone in ~5 years.

       Notice how the duration shrinks as the 'completeness' of the information increases. That is, ice volume tells us about ALL of the ice while area ignores thickness and extent is area further distorted by how concentrated the ice is. All three of these trends have been accelerating AND converging. The gaps between them were much greater even just five years ago. In another five years I think they'll be in near alignment... either because they will have all hit near zero or because the extent and volume will converge on the area trend. I don't think there is any chance of the extent trend being the 'correct' one.

48435. Dikran Marsupial at 21:27 PM on 22 February 2013
       2013 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Prediction
       

       artcicio - the predictions do not assume constant thickness.  They do not take advantage of our knowledge of thickness, but that is not the same thing.  I suspect that one of the reasons for looking at extent, rather than volume is that there is insufficient historical data available, which meant that until recently, models of ice volume were too uncertain.

       Note Walt Meiers comments about the timing of an ice-free Arctic, they apply to volume just as they do to extent/area.

48436. arcticio at 20:40 PM on 22 February 2013
       2013 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Prediction
       

       These predictions assuming constant thickness ignoring actual oberservations do not even work as first approximation. Wasn't the final advice from last SEARCH sea ice outlook to include volume?

       Sea ice went from a mostly perennenial to a predominantly seasonal ice pack. Cryosat and PIOMAS both agree on meters of tickness lost North of Greenland and the Archipelago. Ice drift speed doubled in recent decades probably rendering Meier's point meaningless. Absorbing new observations the discourse moved on long ago.

       Don't irresponsibly feed policymaker with a prediction of an ice free Arctic in decades based on extent math while all other facts propose that will happen in a few hundred weeks.

       Get sceptic on the skills of a sea ice model ignoring thickness and dynamics.

48437. curiousd at 19:24 PM on 22 February 2013
       In Wall Street Journal op-ed, Bjorn Lomborg urges delay with misleading stats
       

       Comment on bchip at #7 above:

       Missing from the thread are comments on the ways the legal and political system in the U.S. impedes renewable implimentation in cases in which subsidies are not needed.

       Example:

       1. Since 1977 the price of standard crystalline solarcells has fallen by a factor of 35. This is sometimes referred to as "The Swanson Effect".  See URL http://www.marctomarket.com/2012/12/great-graphic-solar-energy-and-swansons.html

       2. But the he price of installation of solar cells varies strongly from place to place, and is much less in Germany than in the U.S. See the URL

       3.  The plummiting cost of crystalline silicon solar cells was a contributor to the Solyndra bankruptcy; and make technologically more complex concentrating solar systems less important.  See:

       http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/solyndra/index.html

       and:

       http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2012/11/business-issues-the-capitalist-case-for-solar/

       4. 

         Over half of the homes in Bangladesh lack a grid connection. But for $300 a typical off grid user can power light bulbs, a television set, and a fan by off grid rooftop solar.  

       5.  I then pose the following rhetorical question: In, say, Connecticut, although a well heeled person might construct his/her sustainable home via a combination of solar and geothermal, why cannot someone who lives, say,  in an apartment flat instead purchase solar installations for a large scale desert location in a part of the country with better insolation and receive corresponding cuts in his/her electric bill? On a smaller scale, such a concept was recently tested in California by  

       Conclusion:

        

       There is an obvious solution to this problem

        

        

       Moderator Response: [RH] Fixing font size on link that's breaking page formatting.
48438. Dikran Marsupial at 19:23 PM on 22 February 2013
       2013 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Prediction
       

       Kevin, it was Phillipe's question that you ducked, so your reply should have been directed to him.  I was merely pointing out to you that if you want to take part in a scientific discussion, giving adequate answers to peoples questions and not avoiding difficult issues is generally a good idea.

48439. Rob Honeycutt at 15:38 PM on 22 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       Clyde...  It's a matter of relative chance.  It's possible you'd see such an extraordinary drought without influence from global warming.  But global warming makes it much more likely that such extraordinary doughts will occur.  

       So, you kind of have two choices.  This was an extreme occurence and unlikely to occur again for a long time, or this is a function of human induced changes in the climate system and more likely to become more frequent, or even normal.

       You choose where you're going to put your money.

48440. Chris G at 15:34 PM on 22 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       Clyde, if you want a proof, I suggest you take up theoritical mathmatics; there are no proofs in applied sciences.  There are probabilities.  Droughts have become more widespread, and in particular, 3-sigma heat waves are more than 10 times more common than they were prior to 1980.  

       So, do we know absolutely that there would not have been a drought and heat wave last year (and the year before) in the US with an atmosphere at 290 ppm? No.

       Do we know there is more energy in the climate system than there was prior to the industrial revolution?  The odds that every metric taken on that is wrong are infintesimaly small.

       What do you think is more likely, that adding energy to the system shifts precipitation patterns and results in more frequent high temperatures, or that adding energy to the system has had no effect?

48441. Clyde at 15:11 PM on 22 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       ubrew12 says - The bizarre truth is that Heartland farmers in Kansas are only now in business thanks to 'Big Government'-backed farm insurance programs that tax the ordinary American to help them through their global-warming-induced drought.

       
       Wheres the proof GW caused the drought?
       

48442. Rob Honeycutt at 15:01 PM on 22 February 2013
       Mars is warming
       

       Novemdecillist...   Is there something to give you indication that others are not thinking outside this particular box?  I would suggest that scientists have made careers out of looking into a wide range of boxes to see if there could possibly be other explanations for what they see.  In fact, other planets warming would be one of the first in a long series of other boxes researchers would check into.

48443. stressedchef at 14:51 PM on 22 February 2013
       Climate's changed before
       

       Another aspect of the "climate has changed before" argument, not covered off in the current answer, is the implication that current climate change should not be considered alarming. "It's changed before, and yet here we are" may be a fair summary of this version.

       Is it worth adding some relevant discussion and cross-filing the argument under both the "It's not us" and "It's not bad" taxonomies?

       The main responses seem to me to be that a) deep past climate changes were not much fun for living things at the time, being associated with mass extinctions and great upheaval; b) human societies and economies are adapted to the climate they developed in, and so even changes within the range of natural changes of the distant past would be very disruptive; and c) humans now use a very high proportion of potential quality farmland, affordable freshwater and so on to accommodate a large population with high (for many) or rising (for many) living standards; there is not much safety margin  to prevent a loss of living standards if climate change erodes availability of some of the resources we depend on.

48444. curiousd at 14:03 PM on 22 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       In post 2 above I should have said solar enterprises for CO2 offset, not solar offset enterprises.

48445. curiousd at 14:00 PM on 22 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       Question.....I personally tend to agree with ubrew12 in post 1.  But what is the deal about political posts in SKS anyway? After several months of research into solar offset enterprises I found that if you go from charities to small businesses to various investment strategies, all are largely controlled by laws and politics. In SKS I feel I must not be too specific, but in essence I became convinced that at least in the U.S. the main impediments to large scale use of  renewables are to be found not in our technology, but in our form of government.  SKS is by good reason non political, and though I do understand why a line must be drawn, I am now somewhat confused about where that line is drawn. 

48446. rehuie at 13:05 PM on 22 February 2013
       In Wall Street Journal op-ed, Bjorn Lomborg urges delay with misleading stats
       

       Another major problem with the use of GDP is how impacts on it are used. There appears to be a fundamental assumption of linearity. That is, if agriculture is 10% of the GDP, and agricultural yields are reduced by 10%, the GDP takes only a 1% hit. This is probably correct for small changes. But if the changes are large, this is clearly not correct. If agriculture takes a 20-30% hit, then the folks who generate the other 90% of the GDP are going to be spending most of their time looking for food, so the GDP takes a much larger dive. This is but one small example – I’m sure others can generate more.

48447. KR at 12:05 PM on 22 February 2013
       Mars is warming
       

       Also worth noting are the astronomers - who spend their careers looking at the stars, including spectral and intensity measurements. If we had entered a nebula (that was somehow unobserved at a distance) the reduction in starlight over the last 40 years would have been quite noticeable. Not to mention spectral changes in sunlight, measured either from the surface or from satellite. 

       Given a complete lack of evidence for a hypothesis of interstellar dust/climate interaction, I would classify it on the same level as "climate elves". 

48448. ubrew12 at 11:34 AM on 22 February 2013
       Low emissions are no justification for Kansas scaling back renewables
       

       There's a groundbreaking book in American politics, Thomas Franks 'Whats the Matter with Kansas?', that helps explain what is going on here, "where small farmers cast their votes for a Wall Street Order that will eventually push them off their land".  Where former lobbiests for tobacco grower Phillip Morris joined hands with the Koch Brothers to create a 'Heartland' American Astroturf movement of 'Salt of the Earth' dupes.

       The bizarre truth is that Heartland farmers in Kansas are only now in business thanks to 'Big Government'-backed farm insurance programs that tax the ordinary American to help them through their global-warming-induced drought.  And, thanks to 'Heartland-values' propaganda, they then USE their solvent status to proselytize against those very 'Big Government' programs, and the Climate Change 'nonsense' they would otherwise seek to redress.

       "We're not in Kansas anymore, Toto"

48449. scaddenp at 11:25 AM on 22 February 2013
       Mars is warming
       

       And also worth noting (as this and articles on other planets show) that real evidence for climate change on the other planets is somewhat lacking. See the intermediate versions.

48450. Tom Curtis at 11:02 AM on 22 February 2013
       Mars is warming
       

       Novemdecellist @33, there is a very simple reason to think that our motion through the galaxy has very little do do with current changes in climate.  Specifically, it will take us 1360 years to travel just one light year at our current rate of travell.  In the direction we are travelling, there are no nebulae to obscuring local stars, so we know the nearest nebula to be many light years away.  Apparently the nearest nebula of any sort, L134, is around 300 light years away, and not in our direction of travel.

       It follows from this that the radiation, and molecular density of the space through which we are travelling has not changed appreciably in hundreds of thousands of year; and will not change appreciably for hundreds for thousands more years except in the cases of nearby supernovas.  And if it is not changing, it is not the cause of change.

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