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Comments 48951 to 49000:
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Tom Curtis at 15:43 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard C @58, process (b) is not a reasonable inference from the quotes, and would only seem so if you do not understand how the greenhouse effect works. Each of the quotes you select says, in slightly different ways, heat trapped by the greenhouse effect is predominantly stored in the oceans. You can only understand such statements if you know how the greenhouse effect traps heat - which plainly you do not.
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Rob Painting at 15:29 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
KR - Richard C is aware of the peer-reviewed literature on this subject - I have provided links to him on Saunders and especially Fairall (1996) some time ago.
Note this part of the abstract text:
"For an average over 70 days sampled during COARE, the cool skin increases the average atmospheric heat input to the ocean by about 11 W m-2; the warm layer decreases it by about 4 W m -2 (but the effect can be 50 W m -2 at midday)"
(edit) No doubt this could likewise be misconstrued to mean something other than Fairall intended. -
MartinG at 15:27 PM on 6 February 2013Climate science peer review is pal review
DSL - My point is with the idea of "Pal review". I actually have no problem with what de Freitas did - he got his papers peer reviewed and published. Its actually no error on his part if the reviewers were all climate sceptics any more that if they had all promoted AGW, though personally if I was editor I would ensure a balance. Its only when we label everybody as either pro- or anti that we get a problem. I cannot judge if all the papers involved were worthy of publication or not since I havnt read them, but I assume they were if they got past the peer review process. If they were bad then there should have been refused by the editor and reviewers, and the result will be that the editor, peer reviewers, and the journal will fall into disrepute. But I refuse to condemn them just because they have a different opinion of whats hapenning in the world. But if somebody shows me that the papers de Freitas got published were poorly written, with unsupported conclusions etc. then I will agree they shouldnt have been published.
In my discipline the literature is unfortunately full of poor quality papers and we have to learn to sift through to find the goodies just as we do with internet searches. Peer review was initially a mechanism to ensure that scientists are able to devote their attention to papers of merit. The days when an article was worth reading just because it had been peer reviewed are long gone I fear - and thats why I believe we should look at content, not on whether something has gone through peer review or not. This article and its comments have not been peer reviewed - and I am reading them!
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Richard C (NZ) at 15:22 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
>"Richard C (NZ) is attempting to recast a slowing of energy into an upstream pumping"
Not at all, I'm simply inferring from the quotes what the process is that they are describing. It is clear that there are 2 processes being subscribed to, a) insulation (or "slowing" of ocean => atm transfer), and b) atm => ocean transfer (or "upstream pumping"). Comments here at SkS seem to be in favour of a) but at odds with b) which is the Schmittner/Rahmstorf proicess by inference.
Process b) is the reasonable inferrance from the quotes (except perhaps Dana's but that is for him to clarify) and so my 6 questions are in terms of b) obviously because I'm not taking issue with a) in this thread and I made that clear from the outset.
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mothincarnate at 14:50 PM on 6 February 2013For Psychology Research, Climate Denial is the Gift that Keeps on Giving
I can already hear the Anthony's and the like of the world scream, "Fly my pretties fly!"
Interesting article and I suspect this follow-up could in turn yield similar results as well down the take.
Moderator Response: (Rob P) All caps changed to bold text. -
Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Composer99 - Google Scholar is your friend: Saunders 1967.
Note to everyone looking for primary sources: Google Scholar is an excellent source for finding papers. I consider it one of my starting points for any academic search.
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Rob Honeycutt at 14:30 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard @53... Yes, no one is answering question-by-question because you're entire premise is faulty. That's just not the answer you were looking for.
Honestly, Tom totally nailed it before.
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Composer99 at 14:27 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
IMO Richard C appears to have doubled down on all three conceptual errors I suggested he was committing upthread (with an amendment to the first error).
To whit:
(1) I suggested error #1 was a differing operational definition of "heat/energy". I should like to amend this to a different operational definition of heat/energy transfer. As elucidated by Tom Curtis, Richard is working off an incorrect assumption of what people here are actually claiming - his so-called "Nuticelli/Schmittner/Rahmstorf atm>>ocean heat transfer effect" that he is asking questions about. IMO Richard C is misinterpreting colloquial descriptions of the effects of the enhanced greenhouse effect (unreasonably so - since when does a letter to the editor need to meet the standards of a paper submitted to PNAS?) and mistaking them for novel proposals of heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean.
(2) Richard has continued to ignore the First Law of Thermodynamics. The extra energy in the oceans has to come from somewhere. That somewhere is, parsimoniously, the extra energy building up in the Earth system as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Various other posters have noted how this occurs, without reference to any nonphyisical mechanism that Richard C seems to think is being proposed and is therefore asking questions about.
(3) Still backwards. As has now been pointed out again, and again, and again, all known or posited mechanisms for heat to build up in the ocean result from it failing to escape the ocean. In no case is the build up of heat in the ocean caused directly by warming from the atmosphere.
As far as I can see no one owes Richard C answers to his questions, because they are based on the above conceptual errors.
(Incidentally, it appears the physics of the cool skin layer have been well described since at least 1967, although finding that paper online escapes me at the moment. The paper itself is Saunders, P.M., The temperature at the ocean-air interface, J. Atmos. Sci., 24 , 269-273, 1967.)
Moderator Response: [DB] An accessible copy of Saunders 1967 can be found here. -
Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard C (NZ) - You (nobody else) are the one who has attempted to recast others statements into (paraphrasing) "heat (net energy) moves from atmosphere to ocean". No-one else. That makes your argument against the (never made) claim a strawman argument on your part.
Other readers: Greenhouse gases (GHG) cause the oceans to warm because they slow the flow of energy to space. Think of the energy situation as a river - from the headwaters (sun) to the Earth (mid-stream) to the ocean (space). Beavers (GHG's) build a dam; not surprisingly waters rise (Earth energy/temperature increases) until flow out of midstream (Earth) matches flow into it.
Richard C (NZ) is attempting to recast a slowing of energy into an upstream pumping, then arguing against that. It's ridiculous, a claim never posed, and he is simply raising a strawman.
Further attempts to dilute/confuse by multiple questions (see above) are merely obfuscation and a Failure to State fallacy. Certainly not a serious argument, supported by anything factual.
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Richard C (NZ) at 14:20 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Rob @50
>"Sorry but everyone is answering your questions"
Rubbish, (-snip-)
Moderator Response: [DB] Your continued avoidance of dealing with the concerns identified cements them. Additionally, your then repeating your strawman claims now cross the line into sloganeering, a tactic delineated in the Comments Policy (which you were counseled to read thoroughly) as being off-limits and thus mandating further moderation. -
Richard C (NZ) at 14:10 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
(-snip-)Moderator Response: [DB] Again, the onus is on you to address the concerns put forth by Tom Curtis in comments 38 and 42. Arguing about moderation and erecting yet more strawmen fabrications is unhelpful to communicating your position in a convincing fashion. Please thoroughly review the Comments Policy and ensure your comments comply with it. Your next step after that is to either fully address those concerns noted in 38 and 42 or acknowledge their accuracy. -
Son of Krypton at 14:10 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Dana @8
The professor is Dr. Christopher Fletcher, an associate professor at UW.
To my knowledge, this new course is the first undergraduate climate modeling class offered at the university, so SkS is featured right at the debut
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:58 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard... "No-one has yet offered question-by-question answers."
Sorry but everyone is answering your questions, just not with the answers you want.
The fact is that you're just attempting to reject the 2nd law of thermodynamics without sounding like that's what you're doing.
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Richard C (NZ) at 13:55 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
(-snip-)Moderator Response: [DB] Please note my moderation response to you at 47 above. Avoidance snipped. -
Rob Honeycutt at 13:53 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard... You have a really really big problem if most of the radiative forcing from increasing CO2 levels is not going into the oceans and is only going into the atmosphere. Then we've all been fried 50 times over.
Just because you can't grasp this aspect of physics doesn't cast doubt on the body of research. It casts doubt on you.
Still waiting for Fulks, Knox and Douglass to weigh in.
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Richard C (NZ) at 13:48 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
@Rob Honeycutt
>"What you're doing is dodging."
So far all the dodging has been on the part of those from whom I'm asking 6 questions. (-snip-)
Moderator Response: [DB] Actually, you are dodging the questions put to you by Tom Curtis at 38 and 42 above. It is transparently clear that you avoid dealing with them. The onus is now on you to do so before this conversation can proceed to its inevitable conclusion. Avoidance snipped. -
Rob Honeycutt at 13:39 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard is also suffering from a mistaken notion that Nuccitelli, Knox, Douglas or anyone has to rectify basic physics – like the 2nd law – in order to be accepted research.
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Richard C (NZ) at 13:38 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
>"...the crucial point here is that none of the people Richard quotes says anything about an atmosphere to ocean heat transfer."
What other process can be inferred from those quotes Tom?And what process do those quoted define to support their statements (that's for them not me)?
And what process does the IPCC ratify?
That is the whole purpose of the 6 questions. Avoiding them as you suggest would speak volumes and wouldn't progress anyone's understanding of what Nuccitelli, Schmittner and Rahmstorf base their respective statements on.
Andeas and Stefan are probably unawre this is expected of them and even if they did they may not wish to offer any clarification but I note Dana states "Shmittner is of course entirely correct on this issue" wrt Schmittner's "Most heat trapped by carbon dioxide and other gases added to the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans"
Dana and Andreas would appear to be on the same page re the quote from Andreas so it seems reasonable to accept Dana's interpretation of Andreas' process.
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Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
I believe that the gist of Richard C (NZ)'s comments can be distilled down into a simple group of Strawman Fallacies. No-one discussing changes in ocean heat content (OHC), including Douglas, Knox, Nuccitelli, or the Easter Bunny, has claimed that 'heat is moving "from colder places to warmer places against thermal gradients"', they have simply noted the demonstrated fact that a warmer atmosphere, with more downward long-wave radiation (DLR), inhibits the ability of the oceans to cool, leading to an accumulation of energy as OHC.
Richard, your argument is faulty. Obfuscation doesn't change that.
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:23 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard said... "I haven't claimed anything..."
What you're doing is dodging. You're unwilling to make the claim that you're angling in on – disguising it as a series of questions – because you know it's absurd and completely unsupportable.
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Tom Curtis at 13:23 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard C @37:
"These quotes imply a process whereby heat is moving "from colder places to warmer places against thermal gradients" - do they not?"
No! They imply that global warming will not stop warming the Earth until the surface is warm enough to compensate for the reduced radiation to space from the atmosphere due to increased CO2; and that because of the respective thermal capacities of ocean and land, this requires much more heat for the ocean surface than for land surface. Anything else you read into it is a strawman of your own invention. I will give you a hint. When scientists expound a theory, they state it clearly. They do not merely allude to it obliquely in sentences that have a far more natural alternative explanation. So, where is your quote from Dana saying, "there is a major transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the ocean"? You do not have it because, once again, you are arguing a strawman.
"On global acverage, the difference is about 3 C (ocean warmer than atm)"
What is the relevance of the global average? Heat transfer takes place locally. Where is your evidence that over the entire oceans surface, location by location and time by time, the ocean surface is on average warmer than the surface layer of the atmosphere? Or do you intend to relly on the fact that Antarctica is cold, and that because the atmosphere is cold in places it does not overlay the Ocean, therefore its average is misleadingly lower?
(Ignore the second point if you want to. As your first point is a strawman, the second has no real relevance to this debate.)
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michael sweet at 13:20 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard,
You state:
"I'm questioning the process that I infer from quotes by Nuccitelli, Schmittner and Rahmstorf." (my emphasis)
Here is the problem. You are suggesting an unphysical movement of energy against the thermal gradient. This is not happening. No-one else suggests this unphysical energy transfer. The energy comes originally from the sun and heats the ocean. The ocean loses heat into the atmosphere. When the atmosphere heats up the ocean loses heat slower. The ocean warms because it loses heat more slowly. Your other questions follow from your unphysical inferences.
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:20 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard said... "It is therefore imperitive that the details of the Schmittner/Rahmstorf process at least are determined and 6 question-by-question responses obtained so that we can then know for sure who subscribes to what."
No, not necessarily. The effects can simply be inferred by observation. It is only you, Richard, who seems to need your questions answered specifically as you ask them. The rest of us see this whole line of questioning for what it is; an attempt to reject (or avoid) fundamental, well accepted laws of physics.
Honestly, this whole line of conversation properly belongs in the "2nd law of thermodynamics" thread. Because, as hard as Richard is trying to avoid it, that's where he's going with this.
If Gordon Fulks, Robert Knox and David Douglass are actually following this thread, you should take note that this is what's happening. Feel free to step in and let Richard know that rejecting the 2nd law doesn't hold water (so to speak).
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Richard C (NZ) at 13:17 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
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Tom Curtis at 13:08 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard C @9 quotes various people as follows:
'Nuccitelli - "heat is accumulating in the Earth's climate system due to the increased greenhouse effect"
Skeptical Science blog (Nuccitelli et al, 2012) - "90% of global warming goes into the ocean"
Schmittner - "Most heat trapped by carbon dioxide and other gases added to the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans"
Rahmstorf - ”heat penetrates faster into the oceans in a warmer climate” '
He later claims,
"Note that the process as described above is not the GHG insulation effect of solar-sourced ocean energy accumulation proposed by Peter Minnett"
And later, @23,
"They're taking as given that a majir atm => ocean heat transfer exists."
Now, the crucial point here is that none of the people Richard quotes says anything about an atmosphere to ocean heat transfer. The purported theory that Richard finds so implausible is completely of his own invention. The fact of the matter is that because he does not understand the theory that he criticizes, he reaches for a simplistic theory that is within his grasp - and then assumes (not shows, but assumes) it is wrong. But the simplistic theory he reaches for was not expounded by those he criticizes. Until Richard acknowledges this simple fact, discussion with him is futile. We can defend the correct account of things as much as we like, but he will not acknowledge its relevance, for it is not a defence of his strawman.
So, I intend to discuss nothing with Richard until he proves from their own words that they proposed a theory of major transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the ocean. I suggest that others do likewise.
Of course, we know already that he cannot prove anysuch thing, or else he would not have used such inconclusive quotes to start his threadjack.
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Richard C (NZ) at 13:08 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Let's recap the quotes:-Nuccitelli - "heat is accumulating in the Earth's climate system due to the increased greenhouse effect"
Skeptical Science blog (Nuccitelli et al, 2012) - "90% of global warming goes into the ocean"
Schmittner - "Most heat trapped by carbon dioxide and other gases added to the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans"
Rahmstorf - ”heat penetrates faster into the oceans in a warmer climate”These quotes imply a process whereby heat is moving "from colder places to warmer places against thermal gradients" - do they not?
On global acverage, the difference is about 3 C (ocean warmer than atm) but again I'm curious as to the details of the Schmittner/Rahmstorf process (Nuccitelli may actually subscibe to the Minnett insulation effect as Rob Painting does but he's said nothing yet specifically) because there will be times when the near-surface atm is actually warmer than the adjacent ocean surface enabling an atm => ocean thermal gradient.
It is therefore imperitive that the details of the Schmittner/Rahmstorf process at least are determined and 6 question-by-question responses obtained so that we can then know for sure who subscribes to what.
I assume from your comment that you subscribe to the Minnett insulation effect in which case your process as described is not the subject of my questions as I've already made clear more than once now in this thread.
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Rob Painting at 13:01 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard C - aside from the solar radiation trend going in the wrong direction, the observed warming of the ocean is too smooth, both at the surface and at depth, to arise from natural variation such as an increase in solar radiation (which isn't happening anyway). See the SkS post linked to @ 31.
As noted by Jose X, solar radiation only heats part of the Earth's surface at a time whereas the greenhouse gas effect operates day and night.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:50 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
So, to try to boil your questions down to something digestible... Are you claiming that there is no evidence that GHE can cause the ocean to warm?
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Richard C (NZ) at 12:44 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
As I made plain up-thread, I'm not disputing the Minnett insulation effect that you subscibe to in my series of questions because that topic has been dealt with elsewhere (but without resolution). At this point in time it is my understanding that the IPCC has not ratified that insulation effect as explaining any posited anthropogenically derived ocean heat uptake - what is the situation on that?I'm questioning the process that I infer from quotes by Nuccitelli, Schmittner and Rahmstorf. That process is clearly different to the insulation effect posited by Peter Minnett so obviously a different set of questions arise that I'm seeking answers to, 6 question-by-question responses would suffice.Re your solar argument, there are a number of major problems with it but I'm guided by the following on the topic of this post where solar-centric points were raised up-thread:-"Moderator Response: [DB] Fixed links; agreed on removing the off-topic items to the linked threads."
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Composer99 at 12:34 PM on 6 February 2013New Slideshow on Myth Debunking for Educators and Science Communicators
Eric... just wanted to let you know I've been by your site a couple of times today and intend to listen through the short course slowly but surely.
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Rob Painting at 12:19 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Rob Honeycutt @ 27 - Maybe they think magic is causing sea level to rise? Here's what I posted on The Oregonian thread where Dana Nuccitelli's letter appeared:
Any suggestion that the ocean has not warmed is contradicted by the continuing rise of sea level. There are two main contributors to sea level; thermal expansion of seawater due to warming and meltwater from land-based ice - principally the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The long-term trend is partially obscured by the exchange of water between ocean and land due to evaporation and subsequent precipitation (rainfall & snow), but it shows continued sea level rise. Here is the satellite period of sea level observations from AVISO.
In their 2012 paper Douglass & Knox claim there has been no ocean warming since 2002. If so the sea level trend should have plummeted dramatically since then, because thermal expansion is the largest contributor to sea level rise. But if readers check the AVISO satellite-based observations they will note that since 2002 sea level has continued to rise at a rate which suggests a great deal of ocean warming. The observations completely contradict their claim.
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Richard C (NZ) at 12:18 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
>"...reject 150 years of basic radiative physics, as Richard seems prepared to do"
As for my reply to Jose, We've yet to determine what the Nuccitelli/Schmittner/Rahmstorf process actually is (my inferrance is that it is a sensible heat process hence Question 3) and whether it includes DLR and their response to question 3) before debating the respective merits of the radiative cases.
But meantime, if you refer to my question 3 you will see that I defer to the last 40 years of spectroscopic radiation/water studies in the event that the process in question includes DLR (the quotes say nothing of that specifically so I don't know yet):-
"I note a number of spectroscopic radiation/water studies e.g. Hale and Querry 1973 (1989 citations to date), indicate that such a process is highly unlikely in view of only about 10 microns penetration in the IR-C range of GHG emittance."
Note that I ask for studies of radiation/SEA water interaction if available in Question 3) because I've only seen a compendium of radiation/water studies.
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Rob Painting at 12:09 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Michael Sweet - Richard C is actually correct about the GISS climate model - it does mix heat into the ocean more efficiently than the observations suggest. A number of the models do. Some peer-reviewed references are provided in this SkS post: Observed warming of the Ocean and Atmosphere is Incompatible with Natural Variation - second to last heading.
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michael sweet at 12:02 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard,
You suggest in your question 1:
" GHG energy entrapment and moved to the ocean (high specific heat) against the predominant thermal gradient"
You obviously do not understand the basic greenhouse effect and how it warms the ocean. Everyone knows that energy does not move from colder places to warmer places against thermal gradients. You look foolish when you suggest that scientists say such nonsense.
The warm sun shines on the ocean and warms it. The warm ocean transfers heat into the colder atmosphere. The atmosphere transfers heat into cold space. When greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere it warms the atmosphere because heat goes more slowly into space. According to the laws of thermodynamics, basic high school physics, the now warmer atmosphere absorbs less heat from the ocean. Since the sun continues to deliver heat to the ocean and the ocean no longer loses as much heat to the atmosphere, the ocean warms. The energy to warm the ocean comes from the hot sun. It is trapped by greenhouse gases.
Differrent models have the heat distributed differently once it is in the ocean. It is posssible to match observations of surface temperatures with high aerosol reflection of heat and low ocean heat uptake or low aerosol reflection and high ocean uptake. Scientists are collecting data to determine which is correct. If it turns out that aerosols have been reflecting lots of heat we are in even more trouble. Please provide a citation for your wild claim that the GISS model overestimates heat uptake into the ocean.
Your questions are based on your basic misunderstandings. Ask one question at a time and you will be able to resolve your issues. Do not move on until your first misunderstanding is corrected. First you must understand the basic greenhouse effect.
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Rob Painting at 12:02 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard C - Observed warming of the subsurface ocean is fully in accord with mainstream scientific understanding. The oceans are predominately warmed by sunlight entering the upper layers. Increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and more heat (longwave) radiation is directed back at the sea surface. This lowers the thermal gradient in the thin cool-skin layer, and therefore slows the loss of heat from the typically warmer ocean to the cooler atmosphere above. The sum effect is that the oceans get warmer because more of the sun's energy is being trapped there. In a sense it is similar to how greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere - by slowing the loss of heat out to space. See this SkS post: How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats the Ocean.
Over the last 3 decades solar radiation has seen an overall decline.
If solar output was exerting a controlling influence on ocean heat uptake we should have seen a decline in ocean heating. Instead what we see is that not only has ocean warming continued, but the last 16 years have warmed at a greater rate than the preceding 16 years. This is not that unexpected given that fossil fuel emissions have sharply increased in the last decade. But what it also suggests is that Earth's global energy imbalance has grown - contrary to a lot of discussion floating around on the internet.
There is no conflict between the ocean heating observed in Levitus (2012) and Nuccitelli (2012) and the greenhouse gas forcing by which the oceans are warmed.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:01 PM on 6 February 2013New Slideshow on Myth Debunking for Educators and Science Communicators
uknowispeaksense... And what's fascinating is how completely unaware they are of it.
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Richard C (NZ) at 12:00 PM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
>"...maybe Richard is not realizing that DLR (photon energy) also goes into the oceans, primarily the skin layer I'd imagine"
See my Question 3) Jose. We've yet to determine what the Nuccitelli/Schmittner/Rahmstorf process actually is and whether it includes DLR and their response to question 3) before debating the respective merits of the radiative cases.
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Rob Honeycutt at 11:48 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
So, I'm curious if Gordon Fulks, Robert Knox and David Douglass also ready to reject 150 years of basic radiative physics, as Richard seems prepared to do.
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Jose_X at 11:47 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
More could have been said on the cherry-picking: The "skeptics" did not just cherry-pick in looking at the atmosphere and not at the oceans. They also did in starting with 1998. If we start with 1997 or 1996 or further back (ie, 17 years, 18, etc, or whatever the new number), then we see more warming towards the present. A non-cherry-picked standard entity might look at natural decades. 2000s were warmer clearly than 1990s .. than 1980s, etc. It's only if you start in a particular year that you get the only mild atmosphere warming.
An analogy: If we try to improve our golf, chances are that our best score won't be our current game, but instead will be a game not too long ago. That doesn't mean we aren't improving, generally. We are as seen in our running average over say the last 10 or 50 games. The odds are high that the best point won't be the last one, so if we are foolish, we will frequently believe that we stopped improving rather than recognizing that there are many variables and reasons why our best game of all time won't be our current one even as out average steadily improves (maybe we got a bad night's sleep or were more distracted with something else on a given day).
And yes, as goes the cherry-pick mentioned in the article, we should average the oceans and the atmosphere weighted with respective masses and not just look at one and ignore the other. If two people throw darts at each other, to know who is hitting the other more, you want to look at the total darts on each body and not just the total darts on each neck. I might only get you twice in the neck vs the 3 stabs I took from you, but I might be outscoring 20 to 10 across our whole bodies. We have to average across the entire planet to know the effect the sun is having from increased insulation of CO2. -
Jose_X at 11:28 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
[..let me clarify.. cont.. did not mention that convection in the house also and primarily keeps the objects inside the house at a similar temp.]
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uknowispeaksense at 11:25 AM on 6 February 2013New Slideshow on Myth Debunking for Educators and Science Communicators
WUWT, own-goaling all the way.
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Jose_X at 11:19 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Rob, Dana, Richard, maybe Richard is not realizing that DLR (photon energy) also goes into the oceans, primarily the skin layer I'd imagine. Some of that energy transfer later results in evaporation, some leads to convection into the deeper ocean, and some radiates at least back into the atmosphere. If this is all correct, then thermodynamic analysis has to include DLR analysis and not just convection/conduction at the atmosphere/ocean boundary. [DLR stuff is covered decently in SoD as stated above already]
Richard, there is no magic. There are more photons bouncing around and keeping the average temperature higher near the earth's surface than there would be if all the original photons leaving the earth had simply left into space as happens basically on the moon. Inject heat on a continual basis partly towards the center of an oven (via grill), sweater (via human body), house (via radiator), planet (via sun bypassing gases exterior of planet), and the insulatative effect of the outer shell will lead to a warming effect and higher average temp inside in all of these cases vs if there was no insulatative effect. At any given point in time, the interiors have not just the energy added within the last second or so, but a fraction of the energy added minutes back and even hours or days or years back. This is why, for example, it takes a while to heat an oven. You have to accumulate energy over many seconds, and then why cooling after the energy source is removed also takes a while. Temperature is just an average of concentration of energy. If we had perfect insulation and kept adding energy at a slow rate, the temp would approach infinity. As for the sun/earth case, the sun is basically "off" half the time. We can liken this to a well insulated house that has the heater turned on only half the time (or even 1% of the time). When off, the temp drops only a little. This small loss (because much of the energy "headed out" must take a longer path throughout the house bouncing around objects via "blackbody radiation" and to and fro warm walls that pass energy through them via conduction only very slowly) is quickly made up in a short time by a hot heater (hot sun). If the insulation is better, the loss during the time the heater is off will be even less and then the heater will add more heat raising the temp until equilibrium is reached at a higher temp, that higher gradient between the new inside temp and outside temp then drives more heat out of the house faster until it matches what the part-time radiator was adding (remember that in many scenarios the rate of heat flow is proportional to the difference in temp). Improve the insulation further and the equilibrium temp will rise again. That is what CO2 does to the planet (which has any given side being heated part-time by the very hot sun). Add more insulation and the equilibrium temp will rise. Note that the oceans slow turnover and very large mass means the equilibrium temp in the atmosphere may not be reached for a while even when CO2 additions stop. [let me clarify, stronger insulation means the constant that is proportional to the diff in temp becomes smaller, meaning that a greater diff in temp is required to achieve the same prior total rate.. As an analogy, if I hold on to photons leaving my body a little better, then you have to fire more photons (aka, higher temp) in order for me to allow the same number as before to escape. Until this new number is reached, there will be more energy coming in than going out. Adding CO2 means that the atmosphere catches more photons leaving and so a higher temp is needed in order to again balance the large number of photons arriving from the sun.]
Hopefully, this explanation helps those of us who are not learned physicists/scientists in the subject. Sorry for the length. -
Richard C (NZ) at 11:05 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
>"You mean besides the fact that it's been measured?"
OHC has been measured/calculated but the relevant question is 2)a) and that is wrt major (by implication) atm => ocean heat transfer across the interface. That is not tha same as ARGO measuremets of ocean surface and below say.
>"Your question seems akin to asking how we know gravity exists."
I have 6 questions, 1), 2)a), 2)b), 3), 4)a), and 4)b). It is the answers to those one-by-one that myself and a number of others a looking for given the quotes in my initial comment from prominant climate scientists and those associated with the Nuccitelli et al 2012 paper and SkS that convey a distinct impression that the heat transfer process in question is a verified phenomenon. Gordon Fulks, Robert Knox and David Douglass have the link to this thread for example so now is an opportune time to state your case in detail with citations in response to each question individually.
If your case is rock solid there should be no problem responding to those 6 questions.
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Rob Honeycutt at 09:21 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Dana said... "Your question seems akin to asking how we know gravity exists."
Um, Richard, this is pretty much the point I was making which you responded to so irrationally. This all sounds like you're questioning basic physics.
If that's what you're doing, then let's be upfront about it.
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dana1981 at 08:59 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
"They're taking as given that a majir atm => ocean heat transfer exists. I'm asking for the documented basis for it as per the question list."
You mean besides the fact that it's been measured? Your question seems akin to asking how we know gravity exists.
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Richard C (NZ) at 08:27 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
>"Dana & Schmittner aren't proposing any ocean heat transfer process"
Exactly. They're taking as given that a majir atm => ocean heat transfer exists. I'm asking for the documented basis for it as per the question list.
>"Your Rahmstorf quote does not appear to be on topic for this particular post."
(-snip-)
Moderator Response: [DB] Off-topic snipped. -
Richard C (NZ) at 08:19 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Rob Honeycutt at 07:14 AM>"Richard... Correct me if I'm wrong..."
I'm questioning EXACTLY what the questions ask, not what you think I'm questioning.
Moderator Response: [DB] Please cease being obtuse and clarify your question appropriately. -
Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard C (NZ) - Stockwell and "solar accumulation theory" are off-topic on this thread, as it is discussing the interpretation of ocean heat content, not claims against climate based on thermodynamics.
I would recommend taking any such discussion to Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming, and in particular to Tom Curtis's dissection of Stockwells errors.
Moderator Response: [DB] Fixed links; agreed on removing the off-topic items to the linked threads. -
Composer99 at 08:03 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard C:
Dana & Schmittner aren't proposing any ocean heat transfer process, merely correcting mistaken claims about empirically-observed phenomena. Your Rahmstorf quote does not appear to be on topic for this particular post.
So as far as I can see the trap you are falling into is (2) - running afoul of the First Law of Thermodynamics.
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Rob Honeycutt at 07:14 AM on 6 February 2013Dueling Scientists in The Oregonian, Settled by Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Richard... Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds to me like you're just questioning the thermodynamics behind the greenhouse effect.
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>"Are you claiming that there is no evidence that GHE can cause the ocean to warm?"
I haven't claimed anything, I'm asking 6 questions wrt to the quotes. Any claims and counter claims will arise from the answers.