Arguments
New research, December 18-24, 2017
Posted on 29 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki
A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.
The figure is from paper #62.
Climate change impacts
1. The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060
"The model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity; global annual Gross Domestic Product losses are projected to be 1.0–3.3% by 2060. Of the impacts that are modelled, impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences. Damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century. Damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective, as benefits in some regions balance damages in others. Climate-induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities, but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small. Net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in Africa and Asia, where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts. For some countries in higher latitudes, economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism, energy and health. The global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains."
2. An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change
"In general, SAA [suitable activity area] in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070."
3. Temperature is the main correlate of the global biogeography of turtle body size
"Mean annual temperature was the main correlate of body size for the whole group and for terrestrial turtles in both approaches, having a positive correlation with this trait. Body sizes of aquatic turtles were not influenced by any of the tested variables. In the cross-species approach we also found that temperature variation since the LGM was an important positive correlate of body size in terrestrial turtles."
7. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into the European Union’s development assistance
8. Re-thinking the present: The role of a historical focus in climate change adaptation research
9. Differentiating environmental concern in the context of psychological adaption to climate change
10. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming
13. Experimental evidence for reduced mortality of Agaricia lamarcki on a mesophotic reef
17. Challenging a 15-year old claim: The NAO index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds
Climate change mitigation
19. The impact of the US retreat from the Paris Agreement: Kyoto revisited?
"We find that differences across the two treaties relating to the first three factors are more likely to reduce the negative ramifications of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement compared to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the increased urgency of deep decarbonization renders US non-participation a major concern despite its declining share of global emissions. Moreover, key design features of the Paris Agreement suggest that other countries may react to the US decision by scaling back their levels of ambition and compliance, even if they remain in the Agreement."
20. Echo Chambers of Denial: Explaining User Comments on Climate Change
"The results show that users adapt to the dominant opinion within the respective media outlet: user comment sections serve as echo chambers rather than as corrective mechanisms. Climate change denial is more visible in user comment sections in countries where the climate change debate reflects the scientific consensus on climate change and user comments create niches of denial."
21. Public attitudes about climate policy options for aviation
"The findings indicate that there is significant support across demographic groups for a large number of policies, particularly those that place financial or regulatory burdens on industry rather than on individuals directly. Support for aviation policies strengthens with pro-environmental attitudes and is weaker among people who are aeromobile. Though self-interested considerations appeared to dominate policy option preferences, concern for fairness may also shape policy acceptability."
22. The effectiveness of climate clubs under Donald Trump
24. Mapping states’ Paris climate pledges: Analysing targets and groups at COP 21
25. Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016–2050
28. Challenges to addressing non-CO2 greenhouse gases in China’s long-term climate strategy
29. Economic and environmental effects of a CO2 tax in Latin American countries
30. The welfare effects of energy price changes due to energy market reform in Mexico
32. Reconstructed and Projected U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption During 1896-2043
38. Climate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production
39. Cleaning up nitrogen pollution may reduce future carbon sinks
Climate change
"Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affects smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial non-linear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe, and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe."
"We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100–250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world's population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150–750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today's most severe heat waves by 2070–2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold."
44. Autumn Cooling of Western East Antarctica Linked to the Tropical Pacific
46. North Pacific Influences on Long Island Sound Temperature Variability
47. Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming targets
48. A new assessment of modern climate change, China—An approach based on paleo-climate
49. Changes in “hotter and wetter” events across China
50. Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
52. Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Southern Russia
55. ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia
56. On the fragile relationship between El Niño and California rainfall
58. Large-scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types
59. Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought
61. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective
62. Gradients of column CO2 across North America from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network
63. Influence of vegetation growth on the enhanced seasonality of atmospheric CO2
65. Non-Redfieldian Dynamics Explain Seasonal pCO2 Drawdown in the Gulf of Bothnia
66. Low pCO2 under sea-ice melt in the Canada Basin of the western Arctic Ocean
67. Satellite evidence that E. huxleyi phytoplankton blooms weaken marine carbon sinks
68. Unravel causes for the changing behavior of tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades
69. Comparison of methodologies for cloud cover estimation in Brazil - A case study
72. Arctic sea-ice loss in different regions leads to contrasting Northern Hemisphere impacts
73. Impact of winter Ural blocking on Arctic sea ice: Short-time variability
74. How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?
75. Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic
76. The role of ions in new particle formation in the CLOUD chamber
Other papers
77. Tree-ring growth shows that the population decline started decades before the Black Death in Norway
"Since many of these fast-growing trees germinated in the early-14th century and the number of dated buildings drops dramatically several decades before the plague, the Black Death can hardly be the only reason for the population decline in Norway and some environmental impact must have occurred decades earlier. The dendroclimatological evidence of cold and wet summers in the years before the plague is suggestive, but historical sources also pinpoint famine due to crop failure. They also tell of farms being abandoned several decades before the plague and mention periods of heavy rainfall and famine in the early-14th century."
78. Evidence for the thermal bleaching of Porites corals from 4.0 ka BP in the northern South China Sea
"The results show that growth hiatuses and mortalities mainly occurred in summer, with high SST (31 – 34 °C) and SSS (32.8 – 38.4). In addition, abrupt negative shifts of 2 – 3‰ in δ13C were observed in almost all of the surfaces of growth hiatus and mortality, indicating adramatically reduced level of photosynthetic activity in symbiotic zooxanthellae. Because of the above reasons, we conclude that the frequently observed mortality and growth discontinuity of Porites corals from the mid-Holocene is evidence for thermal bleaching events in the past. That is, coral bleaching has occurred 3800-4200 years ago and is not a new phenomenon."
81. The Arctic System Reanalysis Version 2
82. Historical cropland expansion and abandonment in the continental U.S. during 1850 to 2016
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