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New research, December 18-24, 2017

Posted on 29 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #62.

Climate change impacts

1. The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060

"The model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity; global annual Gross Domestic Product losses are projected to be 1.0–3.3% by 2060. Of the impacts that are modelled, impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences. Damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century. Damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective, as benefits in some regions balance damages in others. Climate-induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities, but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small. Net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in Africa and Asia, where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts. For some countries in higher latitudes, economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism, energy and health. The global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains."

2. An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change

"In general, SAA [suitable activity area] in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070."

3. Temperature is the main correlate of the global biogeography of turtle body size

"Mean annual temperature was the main correlate of body size for the whole group and for terrestrial turtles in both approaches, having a positive correlation with this trait. Body sizes of aquatic turtles were not influenced by any of the tested variables. In the cross-species approach we also found that temperature variation since the LGM was an important positive correlate of body size in terrestrial turtles."

4. Screening criteria for increased susceptibility to heat stress during work or leisure in hot environments in healthy individuals aged 31–70 years

5. Agricultural policy and climate change: An integrated assessment of the impacts on an agricultural area of Southern Italy

6. Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems

7. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into the European Union’s development assistance

8. Re-thinking the present: The role of a historical focus in climate change adaptation research

9. Differentiating environmental concern in the context of psychological adaption to climate change

10. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

11. Sensitivity to ocean acidification differs between populations of the Sydney rock oyster: Role of filtration and ion-regulatory capacities

12. Effects of ocean acidification with pCO2 diurnal fluctuations on survival and larval shell formation of Ezo abalone, Haliotis discus hannai

13. Experimental evidence for reduced mortality of Agaricia lamarcki on a mesophotic reef

14. Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions

15. Long-term increases in tropical flowering activity across growth forms in response to rising CO2 and climate change

16. Observed and simulated sensitivities of spring greenup to preseason climate in northern temperate and boreal regions

17. Challenging a 15-year old claim: The NAO index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds

18. Contrasting above- and belowground organic matter decomposition and carbon and nitrogen dynamics in response to warming in High Arctic tundra

Climate change mitigation

19. The impact of the US retreat from the Paris Agreement: Kyoto revisited?

"We find that differences across the two treaties relating to the first three factors are more likely to reduce the negative ramifications of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement compared to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the increased urgency of deep decarbonization renders US non-participation a major concern despite its declining share of global emissions. Moreover, key design features of the Paris Agreement suggest that other countries may react to the US decision by scaling back their levels of ambition and compliance, even if they remain in the Agreement."

20. Echo Chambers of Denial: Explaining User Comments on Climate Change

"The results show that users adapt to the dominant opinion within the respective media outlet: user comment sections serve as echo chambers rather than as corrective mechanisms. Climate change denial is more visible in user comment sections in countries where the climate change debate reflects the scientific consensus on climate change and user comments create niches of denial."

21. Public attitudes about climate policy options for aviation

"The findings indicate that there is significant support across demographic groups for a large number of policies, particularly those that place financial or regulatory burdens on industry rather than on individuals directly. Support for aviation policies strengthens with pro-environmental attitudes and is weaker among people who are aeromobile. Though self-interested considerations appeared to dominate policy option preferences, concern for fairness may also shape policy acceptability."

22. The effectiveness of climate clubs under Donald Trump

23. Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

24. Mapping states’ Paris climate pledges: Analysing targets and groups at COP 21

25. Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016–2050

26. International organizations, advocacy coalitions, and domestication of global norms: Debates on climate change in Canada, the US, Brazil, and India

27. The role of economic perceptions in influencing views on climate change: an experimental analysis with British respondents

28. Challenges to addressing non-CO2 greenhouse gases in China’s long-term climate strategy

29. Economic and environmental effects of a CO2 tax in Latin American countries

30. The welfare effects of energy price changes due to energy market reform in Mexico

31. Narrative matters for sustainability: the transformative role of storytelling in realizing 1.5°C futures

32. Reconstructed and Projected U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption During 1896-2043

33. Technical skills, disinterest and non-functional regulation: Barriers to building energy efficiency in Finland viewed by energy service companies

34. Trade-offs and synergies between universal electricity access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

35. Seasonal fuel consumption, stoves, and end-uses in rural households of the far-western development region of Nepal

36. Discussion on the effectiveness of cement replacement for carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction in concrete

37. Quantifying drivers of variability in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of consumer products—a case study on laundry washing in Europe

38. Climate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production

39. Cleaning up nitrogen pollution may reduce future carbon sinks

Climate change

40. Will half a degree make a difference? Robust projections of indices of mean and extreme climate in Europe under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C global warming

"Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affects smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial non-linear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe, and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe."

41. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

"We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100–250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world's population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150–750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today's most severe heat waves by 2070–2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold."

42. Interactions between hydrological sensitivity, radiative cooling, stability and low-level cloud amount feedback

43. The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability

44. Autumn Cooling of Western East Antarctica Linked to the Tropical Pacific

45. High resolution temperature datasets in Portugal from a geostatistical approach: variability and extremes

46. North Pacific Influences on Long Island Sound Temperature Variability

47. Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming targets

48. A new assessment of modern climate change, China—An approach based on paleo-climate

49. Changes in “hotter and wetter” events across China

50. Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

51. Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 °C global warming target

52. Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Southern Russia

53. Alpine foreland running drier? Sensitivity of a drought vulnerable catchment to changes in climate, land use, and water management

54. Breakdown of the relationship between Australian summer rainfall and ENSO caused by tropical Indian Ocean SST warming

55. ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

56. On the fragile relationship between El Niño and California rainfall

57. Relationships of Rainy Season Precipitation and Temperature to Climate Indices in California: Long-Term Variability and Extreme Events

58. Large-scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types

59. Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought

60. 20th-century regional climate change in the central United States attributed to agricultural intensification

61. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

62. Gradients of column CO2 across North America from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network

63. Influence of vegetation growth on the enhanced seasonality of atmospheric CO2

64. Modeling the origin of anthropogenic black carbon and its climatic effect over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding regions

65. Non-Redfieldian Dynamics Explain Seasonal pCO2 Drawdown in the Gulf of Bothnia

66. Low pCO2 under sea-ice melt in the Canada Basin of the western Arctic Ocean

67. Satellite evidence that E. huxleyi phytoplankton blooms weaken marine carbon sinks

68. Unravel causes for the changing behavior of tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades

69. Comparison of methodologies for cloud cover estimation in Brazil - A case study

70. Evaluation of different methods to model near-surface turbulent fluxes for a mountain glacier in the Cariboo Mountains, BC, Canada

71. Analysis of thickness changes and the associated driving factors on a debris-covered glacier in the Tienshan Mountain

72. Arctic sea-ice loss in different regions leads to contrasting Northern Hemisphere impacts

73. Impact of winter Ural blocking on Arctic sea ice: Short-time variability

74. How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?

75. Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic

76. The role of ions in new particle formation in the CLOUD chamber

Other papers

77. Tree-ring growth shows that the population decline started decades before the Black Death in Norway

"Since many of these fast-growing trees germinated in the early-14th century and the number of dated buildings drops dramatically several decades before the plague, the Black Death can hardly be the only reason for the population decline in Norway and some environmental impact must have occurred decades earlier. The dendroclimatological evidence of cold and wet summers in the years before the plague is suggestive, but historical sources also pinpoint famine due to crop failure. They also tell of farms being abandoned several decades before the plague and mention periods of heavy rainfall and famine in the early-14th century."

78. Evidence for the thermal bleaching of Porites corals from 4.0 ka BP in the northern South China Sea

"The results show that growth hiatuses and mortalities mainly occurred in summer, with high SST (31 – 34 °C) and SSS (32.8 – 38.4). In addition, abrupt negative shifts of 2 – 3‰ in δ13C were observed in almost all of the surfaces of growth hiatus and mortality, indicating adramatically reduced level of photosynthetic activity in symbiotic zooxanthellae. Because of the above reasons, we conclude that the frequently observed mortality and growth discontinuity of Porites corals from the mid-Holocene is evidence for thermal bleaching events in the past. That is, coral bleaching has occurred 3800-4200 years ago and is not a new phenomenon."

79. Biome stability in South America over the last 30 kyr: Inferences from long-term vegetation dynamics and habitat modelling

80. Creating a seamless 1 km resolution daily land surface temperature dataset for urban and surrounding areas in the conterminous United States

81. The Arctic System Reanalysis Version 2

82. Historical cropland expansion and abandonment in the continental U.S. during 1850 to 2016

83. The climate of the Common Era off the Iberian Peninsula

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