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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #22 2022

Posted on 2 June 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

We're clever. Now let's be wise, together.

"If people are at the heart of climate action, then understanding and tackling climate change cannot be done by engineers or natural scientists alone. All disciplines need to work together–not least a range of social sciences including political science, sociology, geography and psychology—to find solutions in ways that achieve wider societal goals." 

This week we have a conjunction of articles arguing cases for more consciously, intentionally "joined up" thinking and action to combat climate change. Together they offer components for a plausible way forward to deal with our most imminent major threat— climate change— and as well to build skills arguably vital for sustainable maintenance of civilization as most of us roughly imagine it, methods and habits more or less mandatory for a time horizon longer than a few more decades. Systematic cooperation and direct operational confrontation of human foibles and limitations is a consistent theme in all three articles.

In her opinion piece Civilization-Saving Science for the Twenty-First Century— delivered from the geosciences perspective— Dr. Marcia McKnutt speaks of "convergence," a formal term describing multiple scientific disciplines aligned to a large common purpose. McKnutt suggests how convergence can more effectively be operationalized by including what's arguably a key missing ingredient: social sciences, not least our vastly improved understanding of how people think and make decisions. 

In their "big picture" paper on effecting changes leading to sustainability, Systems thinking as a paradigm shift for sustainability transformation, Voulvoulis et al. point out a curious gap leading to operational myopia and lack of circumspection:

"Competence in systems thinking is implicitly assumed among the population of engineers, policy makers and managers and in fact, most technical people will self-identify as systems thinkers. But systems thinking competencies are not as prevalent as these assertions might lead one to assume”

When we don't think systematically, we leave unclosed budgets, create unintended outcomes and are essentially thwarted in our efforts to create a truly sustainable environment in which civilization can thrive. "Target fixation" is a cliche because it's a true human quirk. It's a social phenomenon. How do we deal with this? 

Our lead quote is from Devine-Wright et al. and Placing people at the heart of climate action. The authors' suggestions are directly relevant to both of our other featured works. Our civilization is a human system. Systems thinking in support of our civilization will more or less fail to the extent it fails to incorporate our best understanding of human nature and human cognition.

"All of the above" must include operationalizing useful, proven predictive capacities of social sciences. Here in this group of articles we see wide consensus on important advances in our capacities and skills for working with our own human material— something to celebrate. 

Other notables:

Climate warming amplified the 2020 record-breaking heatwave in the Antarctic Peninsula. No need to paraphrase: "...here we quantify the role of recent climate change in the magnitude of this 6-day regional heatwave. Results show that 2020-like heatwaves over the Antarctic Peninsula are now at least ~0.4 °C warmer than in the past period, which represents a ~25% increase in magnitude. Given the observed atmospheric circulation conditions, the probability of experiencing 6-day regional mean anomalies above ~2 °C has increased ten times since 1950–1984. The aggravated severity of the event can be largely ascribed to long-term summer warming of the Antarctic Peninsula rather than recent atmospheric circulation trends."

National-scale impacts on wind energy production under curtailment scenarios to reduce bat fatalities. In "Decarbonization." Bats are at particular risk from wind turbines when wind speeds are low. Intuition suggests "low wind speed, so what's the problem?" But, bats are on the wing and most active during periods of low wind. Unfortunately, careful modeling suggests that responsible operation to respect bats will impose significant output reductions.  It's not a deal breaker but has economic effects for operators.  Some promise lies in employing sensors to detect bats and alter turbine operation as needed, as opposed to simpler but dumber "rules based" operation. 

Populism as an act of storytelling: analyzing the climate change narratives of Donald Trump and Greta Thunberg as populist truth-tellers. Two preternaturally skilled communicators: one is a notorious fabulist, the other a truth teller. Each ignited passion in huge numbers of people. Employing our best understanding of the psychology of populism, the authors argue there are similarities in methods between the two figures even as their motivations are entirely different.

The Future of Energy Storage in our government/NGO reports section fully illuminates principal methods for storing energy from VRE (variable renewable energy) sources. Variability of renewable energy is a favorite hobbyhorse of solutions deniers. In reality, the principles of storage for VREs are well understood and pose no insoluable engineering challenges. Indeed pumped hydro is a completely cooked option, already widely deployed but recently held back by the market-distorting (and temporary) effects of "cheap and easy" natural gas generation systems. A 3 year effort by a team of MIT luminaries and well worth reading. 

All of the above open access and free to read, as are 84 others in this week's collection.

163 articles in 67 journals by 875 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

The Role of Clouds in Shaping Tropical Pacific Response Pattern to Extratropical Thermal Forcing
Hsiao et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510469.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Recent variability of sub-seasonal monsoon precipitation and its potential drivers in Myanmar using in-situ observation during 1981–2020
Sein et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7419

Warmer and drier conditions have increased the potential for large and severe fire seasons across south-eastern Australia
Collins et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
Open Access 10.1111/geb.13514

The intensification of winter mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere
Chemke et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01368-8

Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth’s Energy Flows from Observations and Reanalyses
Loeb et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2022jd036686

The pan-Arctic continental slope as an intensifying conveyer belt for nutrients in the central Arctic Ocean (1985-2015)
Oziel et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
10.1029/2021gb007268

Trend assessment of global, UVB, UVA irradiation, and dry bulb temperature at the lowest terrestrial site on earth: Dead Sea, Israel
Kudish & Evseev Evseev Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04095-4

Northward Expansion of Desert Climate in Central Asia in Recent Decades
Hu & Han Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl098895

Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections
Wainwright et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl097231

Comprehensive analysis of thermal stress over northwest India: Climatology, trends and extremes
Shukla et al. Urban Climate
10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101188

Climate Leads to Reversed Latitudinal Changes in Chinese Flood Peak Timing
Yang et al. Earth's Future
10.1029/2022ef002726

Influence of water vapor influx on interdecadal change in summer precipitation over the source area of the Yellow River Basin
Huang et al. Atmospheric Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106270

Climate warming amplified the 2020 record-breaking heatwave in the Antarctic Peninsula
González-Herrero et al. Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00450-5

Changes in observed rainfall and temperature extremes in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia
Ali Mohammed et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100468

Fronts and Cyclones Associated with Changes in the Total and Extreme Precipitation over China
Wu et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0467.1

Contribution of Ural and Kamchatka Blockings to the Amplified Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern under Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Eurasian Cooling
Kim et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0635.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, contributors, effects

Optically thin clouds in the trades
Mieslinger et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-453

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Increased population exposure to Amphan-scale cyclones under future climates
Mitchell et al. Climate Resilience and Sustainability
Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.36

CMIP5 and CMIP6 representation of peak and end of rainy season over upper Blue Nile basin
Fetene et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7736

Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation in Central Asia with 1.5–4 °C Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations
Zhang & Wang International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7740

Impact of internal variability on recent opposite trends in wintertime temperature over the Barents–Kara Seas and central Eurasia
Wang & Chen Chen Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-021-06077-0

Minimum Warming in the South Indian Ocean Thermocline in a Warming Climate Linked to Freshening Processes
Hong et al. Journal of Physical Oceanography
10.1175/jpo-d-21-0224.1

How Do Regional Distributions of Daily Precipitation Change under Warming?
Chadwick et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-20-0864.1

Projected changes in rainfall over Uganda based on CMIP6 models
Ngoma et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access 10.1007/s00704-022-04106-4

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Cloud Microphysics in Global Cloud Resolving Models
Seiki et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10509052.1

Deficient Precipitation Sensitivity to Sahel Land Surface Forcings Among CMIP5 Models
Wang et al. International Journal of Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7737

Improvements and persistent biases in the southeast tropical Atlantic in CMIP models
Farneti et al. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-022-00264-4

Enhancing the stability of a global model by using an adaptively implicit vertical moist transport scheme
Li & Zhang Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
10.1007/s00703-022-00895-5

Early- to late-winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6
Bracegirdle Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl098212

Low-level marine tropical clouds in six CMIP6 models are too few, too bright but also too compact and too homogeneous
Konsta et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl097593

Sensitivity of Cloud-Radiative Effects to Cloud Fraction Parametrizations in Tropical, Mid-Latitude and Arctic Kilometre-Scale Simulations
Van Weverberg & Morcrette Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
10.1002/qj.4325

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in the representation of observed extreme temperature indices trends in South America
Collazo et al. Climatic Change
Open Access 10.1007/s10584-022-03376-1

Projection of maximum temperatures to 2050 in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region, France
Ifkirne et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-04099-0

Cryosphere & climate change

Stabilizing effect of mélange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Schlemm et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-238

Long-term soil temperature dynamics of the Kunlun Pass permafrost region on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Hu et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-04083-8

A role for the ocean in the winter sea ice distribution north of Svalbard
Herbaut et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
10.1029/2021jc017852

The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part B: Possible commitment of regional collapse under current climate
Reese et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-105-supplement

Compensating errors in inversions for subglacial bed roughness: same steady state, different dynamic response
Berends et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-103

Glacier–permafrost relations in a high-mountain environment: 5 decades of kinematic monitoring at the Gruben site, Swiss Alps
Gärtner-Roer et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-2083-2022

A quantile-based approach to improve homogenization of snow depth time series
Resch et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7742

Sea level & climate change Paleoclimate

Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development
Niezgodzki et al. Global and Planetary Change
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848

Sensitive Dependence of Global Climate to Continental Geometry
Baum et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl098843

Biomarker Approaches for Reconstructing Terrestrial Environmental Change
Inglis et al. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-095943

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
Brambilla et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16187

Strong Habitat Compression by Extreme Shoaling Events of Hypoxic Waters in the Eastern Pacific
Köhn et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
10.1029/2022jc018429

Climate-driven substitution of foundation species causes breakdown of a facilitation cascade with potential implications for higher trophic levels
Smale et al. Journal of Ecology
10.1111/1365-2745.13936

The Last Trees Standing: Climate modulates tree survival factors during a prolonged bark beetle outbreak in Europe
Korolyova et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109025

Biogeochemical dynamics of a glaciated high-latitude wetland
Buser?Young et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
10.1029/2021jg006584

Weather and butterfly responses: a framework for understanding population dynamics in terms of species’ life-cycles and extreme climatic events
Ubach et al. Oecologia
10.1007/s00442-022-05188-7

Bioclimatic context of species' populations determines community stability
Evans et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13527

Responses to simultaneous anthropogenic and biological stressors were mixed in an experimental saltmarsh ecosystem
Blake & Olin Marine Environmental Research
10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105644

A critical evaluation of benthic phase shift studies on coral reefs
Crisp et al. Marine Environmental Research
10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105667

Evolutionary trade-offs between heat and cold tolerance limit responses to fluctuating climates
Schou et al. Science Advances
10.1126/sciadv.abn9580

Early impacts of climate change on a coastal marine microbial mat ecosystem
Lingappa et al. Science Advances
10.1126/sciadv.abm7826

Biocrusts increase the resistance to warming-induced increases in topsoil P pools
García?Velázquez et al. Journal of Ecology
10.1111/1365-2745.13930

Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
Kruse & Herzschuh Herzschuh Herzschuh eLife
Open Access 10.7554/elife.75163

Thermal ecology and baseline energetic requirements of a large-bodied ectotherm suggest resilience to climate change
Crowell et al. Ecology and Evolution
Open Access 10.1002/ece3.7649

Refining carbon credits to contribute to large carnivore conservation: The jaguar as a case study
Hyde et al. Conservation Letters
10.1111/conl.12880

Climate influence on plant–pollinator interactions in the keystone species Vaccinium myrtillus
Olsen et al. Ecology and Evolution
Open Access 10.1002/ece3.8910

Investigation of changes in vegetation cover associated with changes in its hydro-climatic drivers in recent decades over North Sub-Saharan Africa
Ogou & Igbawua Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-04088-3

Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic
Jenkins & Stevens PeerJ
Open Access 10.7717/peerj.13509

The enigmatic tropical alpine flora on the African sky islands is young, disturbed, and unsaturated
Kandziora et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2112737119

Shrinking habitats and native species loss under climate change: A multifactorial risk assessment of China’s inland wetlands
Zhong et al. Earth's Future
10.1029/2021ef002630

Nitric oxide production rather than oxidative stress and cell death is associated with the onset of coral bleaching in Pocillopora acuta
Jury et al. PeerJ
Open Access 10.7717/peerj.13321

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

“Carbon Bombs” - Mapping key fossil fuel projects
Kühne et al. Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112950

Where Has All the Carbon Gone?
Wofsy Science
Open Access 10.1126/science.1061077

Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere
Zhang et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01374-w

Anoxia decreases the magnitude of the carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus sink in freshwaters
Carey et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10508415.1

Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Global Carbon Cycle Predictions: Lessons and Perspectives From 15 Years of Data Assimilation Studies with the ORCHIDEE Terrestrial Biosphere Model
MacBean et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
10.1029/2021gb007177

Carbon Fluxes in the Coastal Ocean: Synthesis, Boundary Processes, and Future Trends
Dai et al. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-090746

Monitoring urban carbon emissions from energy consumption over China with DMSP/OLS nighttime light observations
Wang et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04084-7

Unified understanding of intrinsic and extrinsic controls of dissolved organic carbon reactivity in aquatic ecosystems
Berggren et al. Ecology
10.1002/ecy.3763

Turbidity currents can dictate organic carbon fluxes across river-fed fjords: An example from Bute Inlet (BC, Canada)
Hage et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022jg006824

Impoundment increases methane emissions in Phragmites-invaded coastal wetlands
Sanders?DeMott et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16217

Small suspension-feeding amphipods play a pivotal role in carbon dynamics around offshore man-made structures
Mavraki et al. Marine Environmental Research
10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105664

Large Methane Emission Fluxes Observed from Tropical Wetlands in Zambia
Shaw et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gb007261

Biogeochemical distinctiveness of peatland ponds, thermokarst waterbodies and lakes
Arsenault et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl097492

Source Identification and Estimation of Organic Carbon in the Intertidal Wetlands of the Eastern Coast of China
Ding et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
10.1029/2022jg006822

Graminoids vary in functional traits, carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in a restored peatland: implications for modeling carbon storage
Goud et al.
Open Access pdf 10.1101/2021.05.27.445980

The carbon cost of the 2019–20 Australian fires varies with fire severity and forest type
Nolan et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
10.1111/geb.13548

Towards reconstructing the Arctic atmospheric methane history over the 20th century: measurement and modelling results for the North Greenland Ice Core Project firn
Umezawa et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-6899-2022

Sources of nitrous oxide and the fate of mineral nitrogen in subarctic permafrost peat soils
Gil et al. Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-2683-2022

Relationships between greenhouse gas production and landscape position during short-term permafrost thaw under anaerobic conditions in the Lena Delta
Laurent et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-122-supplement

Emission factors from enteric fermentation of different categories of cattle in the Mexican tropics: a comparison between 2006 and 2019 IPCC
Rivera-Huerta et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-022-03378-z

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

An optimization-based CCUS source-sink matching model for dynamic planning of CCUS clusters
Wu et al. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology
10.1002/ghg.2159

The role of surface chemistry on CO2 adsorption in biomass-derived porous carbons by experimental results and molecular dynamics simulations
Khosrowshahi et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-12596-5

Tandem utilization of CO2 photoreduction products for the carbonylation of aryl iodides
Xia et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-30676-y

Rational Design of Metal–Organic Framework-Based Materials for Photocatalytic CO2 Reduction
Zhan et al. Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research
10.1002/aesr.202200004

Critical rate analysis for CO2 injection in depleted gas field, Sarawak Basin, offshore East Malaysia
Mat Razali et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2074312

Decarbonization

Land-based climate solutions for the United States
Droughts
Open Access 10.4324/9781315830896-45

Do views of offshore wind energy detract? A hedonic price analysis of the Block Island wind farm in Rhode Island
Dong & Lang Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113060

Advancing battery design based on environmental impacts using an aqueous Al-ion cell as a case study
Melzack Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-13078-4

Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies
Semieniuk et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01356-y

National-scale impacts on wind energy production under curtailment scenarios to reduce bat fatalities
Maclaurin et al. Wind Energy
Open Access pdf 10.1002/we.2741

To drill or not to drill: determinants of geothermal energy project siting in Japan
Encyclopedic Dictionary of Polymers
Open Access 10.1007/978-0-387-30160-0_3966

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it: how the public’s economic confidence in the fossil fuel industry reduces support for a clean energy transition
Schimpf et al. Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1978199

Recent Advances in Aqueous Batteries with Nonmetal Cations as Charge Carriers
Yu et al. Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research
Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202100207

Responsibilities for just transition to low-carbon societies: a role-based framework
Kortetmäki & Huttunen Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2064690

The deviation between the willingness and behavior of farmers to adopt electricity-saving tricycles and its influencing factors in Dazu District of China
Qiu et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113069

Geoengineering climate

Solar geoengineering research on the U.S. policy agenda: when might its time come?
Felgenhauer et al. Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.1933763

The Dangers of Mainstreaming Solar Geoengineering: A critique of the National Academies Report
Stephens et al. Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1989214

Further Reflections on the National Academies Report on Solar Geoengineering: A Response to Stephens et al.
Lin & Hourdequin Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2022.2035556

Black carbon

The Climate and Ozone Impacts of Black Carbon Emissions from Global Rocket Launches
Maloney et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd036373

Aerosols

Evolving Sahel Rainfall Response to Anthropogenic Aerosols Driven by Shifting Regional Oceanic and Emission Influences
Hirasawa et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0795.1

Climate change communications & cognition

The temporal cleavage: the case of populist retrotopia vs. climate emergency
Hanusch & Meisch Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2044691

How Do Climate Change Skeptics Engage with Opposing Views Online? Evidence from a Major Climate Change Skeptic Forum on Reddit
Oswald & Bright Environmental Communication
10.1080/17524032.2022.2071314

Effects of social networks on interventions to change conservation behavior
Lange et al. Conservation Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.13833

Manufacturing ignorance: think tanks, climate change and the animal-based diet
Almiron et al. Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1933842

Postapocalyptic narratives in climate activism: their place and impact in five European cities
de Moor Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1959123

From populism to climate scepticism: the role of institutional trust and attitudes towards science
Huber et al. Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1978200

Populism as an act of storytelling: analyzing the climate change narratives of Donald Trump and Greta Thunberg as populist truth-tellers
Nordensvard & Ketola Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1996818

Retrogradism in context. Varieties of right-wing populist climate politics
Selk & Kemmerzell Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.1999150

Climate change and right-wing populism in the United States
Fiorino Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.2018854

From influencing to engagement: a framing model for climate communication in polarised settings
Badullovich Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2052648

The centre-periphery divide and attitudes towards climate change measures among Western Europeans
Arndt et al. Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2075155

How can carbon labels and climate-friendly default options on restaurant menus contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions associated with dining?
Betz et al. PLOS Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000028

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions
Noorazar et al.
Open Access pdf 10.1101/2020.08.26.268979

Climate change and fishing are pulling the functional diversity of the world's largest marine fisheries to opposite extremes
Zhao et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
10.1111/geb.13534

How reliable are current crop models for simulating growth and seed yield of canola across global sites and under future climate change?
Wang et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-022-03375-2

Warming/cooling effect of cropland expansion during the 1900s ~ 2010s in the Heilongjiang Province, Northeast of China
Jiang et al. International Journal of Biometeorology
10.1007/s00484-022-02283-5

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Recent variability of sub-seasonal monsoon precipitation and its potential drivers in Myanmar using in-situ observation during 1981–2020
Sein et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7419

Complex network theoretic assessment of precipitation-driven meteorological drought in India: Past and future
Jha et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7397

Contribution of the precipitation-recycling process to the wetting trend in Xinjiang, China
Zhang et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd036407

Climate Leads to Reversed Latitudinal Changes in Chinese Flood Peak Timing
Yang et al. Earth's Future
10.1029/2022ef002726

The impact of a bias-correction approach (delta change) applied directly to hydrological model output when modelling the severity of ice jam flooding under future climate scenarios
Das et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-022-03364-5

Future droughts in northern Italy: high-resolution projections using EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX ensembles
BARONETTI et al.
Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1107916/v1

Climate change economics

Definitions and accounting of climate finance: between divergence and constructive ambiguity
Shishlov & Censkowsky Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2022.2080634

The formation of feed-in tariffs and the emergence of wind power in Finnish routine corporatism: favoring the economics of large-scale energy production
Husu & Salo Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.1926774

Climate change and the circular economy

Closed-loop supply chain pricing strategy for electric vehicle batteries recycling in China
Zhao et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-021-01755-9

Climate change mitigation public policy research

The meaning of leadership in polycentric climate action
Benulic et al. Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1970087

Imaginary lock-ins in climate change politics: the challenge to envision a fossil-free future
Marquardt & Nasiritousi Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.1951479

Flexibility & structure: Community engagement on climate action & large infrastructure delivery
Loftis Encyclopedia of Clinical Neuropsychology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/978-3-319-56782-2_2123-2

Towards more effective visualisations in climate services: good practices and recommendations
Terrado et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03365-4

Accelerating the low-carbon transition will require policy to enhance local learning
Neij & Nemet Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113043

Climate services for the Greater Horn of Africa: interviews exploring practitioner perspectives from Kenya and beyond
Rigby et al. Climate and Development
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2022.2074350

The limits of global property rights: Quasi-Experimental evidence from the Energy Charter Treaty
Ganga & Kalyanpur Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113034

From symbolism to substance: what the renewal of the Danish climate change act tells us about the driving forces behind policy change
Nash & Steurer Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.1922186

Considering subnational support of climate change policy in the United States and the implications of symbolic policy acts
Hopper & Swift Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.1964771

Whose policy is it anyway? Public support for clean energy policy depends on the message and the messenger
Diamond & Zhou Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.1969844

Concerned and willing to pay? Comparing policymaker and citizen attitudes towards climate change
Rapeli & Koskimaa Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.1970458

Local energy transition in Russia: a multi-actor perspective?on the case of Yakutia
Gritsenko Environmental Politics
10.1080/09644016.2021.2020016

Resilience of the EU ETS to contextual disturbance: the case of EU enlargement and its impact on ETS policymaking dynamics
Wang & Paavola Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2043072

Same, same but different? How democratically elected right-wing populists shape climate change policymaking
Marquardt et al. Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2053423

Avoiding a new era in biopiracy: Including indigenous and local knowledge in nature-based solutions to climate change
Cottrell Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2022.05.003

Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
Kruse & Herzschuh Herzschuh Herzschuh eLife
Open Access 10.7554/elife.75163

Land-based climate solutions for the United States
Droughts
Open Access 10.4324/9781315830896-45

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Health trade-offs in pursuit of livelihood security: exploring the intersection of climate, migration and health from the perspective of Mekong Delta migrants in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Ngo et al. Climate and Development
10.1080/17565529.2022.2077691

Municipal government adaptive capacity programs for vulnerable populations during the U.S. energy transition
Helmke-Long et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113058

Assessing the impact of the securitization narrative on climate change adaptation in Nigeria
Oramah et al. Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1970456

Level of preparedness of the residential building industry in Australia to climate change adaptation: a case of residential building companies in Brisbane, Queensland
Jayasinghe & Le Compete Forsyth Stewart Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-022-10004-x

Climate change impacts on human health

Including mental health as part of climate change impacts and adaptation assessment: A critical advance in IPCC AR6
Harper et al. PLOS Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000033

Comprehensive analysis of thermal stress over northwest India: Climatology, trends and extremes
Shukla et al. Urban Climate
10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101188

Climate change influences on the geographic distributional potential of the spotted fever vectors Amblyomma maculatum and Dermacentor andersoni
Alkishe & Peterson PeerJ
Open Access 10.7717/peerj.13279

Climate change & geopolitics

On the relationship of armed conflicts with climate change
Berhe PLOS Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000038

Reconciling climate change leadership with resource nationalism and regional vulnerabilities: a case-study of Kazakhstan
Poberezhskaya & Danilova Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1920768

Climate change impacts on human culture 

Is the vegetation archetype of the Garden of Eden located in the Irano-Turanian region and safe against climate change?
Nowak et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-022-01929-9

Other

Globally ubiquitous negative effects of nitrogen dioxide on crop growth
Lobell et al. Science Advances
Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.abm9909

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

“Carbon Bombs” - Mapping key fossil fuel projects
Kühne et al. Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112950

Placing people at the heart of climate action
Devine-Wright et al. PLOS Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000035

Systems thinking as a paradigm shift for sustainability transformation
Voulvoulis et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102544

Societal impacts of historical droughts in a warming world
Maughan et al. Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01935-x

Capacity for climate change needs knowledge and politics with a difference
Narain Climate Policy
Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2022.2072801

UK Climate Risk Assessment and Management
Dessai et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100440

Livestock, methane, and climate change: The politics of global assessments
Scoones WIREs Climate Change
10.1002/wcc.790

The Dangers of Mainstreaming Solar Geoengineering: A critique of the National Academies Report
Stephens et al. Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2021.1989214

An inconvenient misconception: Climate change is not the principal driver of biodiversity loss
Caro et al. Conservation Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1111/conl.12868

The why, what and how of capacity building: some explorations
Nakamanya et al. Journal of Education, Society and Behavioural Science
Open Access 10.9734/jesbs/2017/36878

Civilization-Saving Science for the Twenty-First Century
McNutt Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Open Access 10.1146/annurev-earth-033021-081125

Book reviews

Daniel Yergin. The new map: energy, climate and the clash of nations
Perkins Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences
Open Access 10.1007/s13412-022-00768-8

Energy fables: challenging ideas in the energy sector
Hudson Environmental Politics
Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2043660

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Why China’s Coal Mine Boom Jeopardizes Short-Term Climate Targets, Global Energy Monitor

China’s strategy to shore-up coal supply in response to an acute domestic “energy crisis” at the end of 2021 unleashed an estimated 2.5 million tonnes (Mt) of new coal mine methane emissions within a matter of months, equivalent to 74 Mt of CO2, and comparable to the emissions of 20 coal-fired power plants operating year-round. China’s hike in emissions comes at a time when policymakers have planned to accelerate outstanding coal mine investments and 169 new coal mine projects are already under development, amounting to 559 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of new coal mine capacity. Absent relentless adoption of mitigation practices at these new operations, the country’s proposed mines could emit an additional 6 Mt of methane each year, which would increase global coal mine methane emissions more than 10%. China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, already emits 73% of the world’s coal mine methane.

The Future of Energy Storage, Armstrong et al., Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The authors examine the important role of energy storage in future decarbonized electricity systems that will be central to the fight against climate change. Deep decarbonization of electricity generation together with electrification of many end-use activities is necessary to limit climate change and its damages. Wind and solar generation— which have no operating carbon dioxide emissions, have experienced major cost reductions, and are being deployed at scale globally—are likely to provide a large share of future total generation. Unlike traditional generators, the output from these variable renewable energy (VRE) resources depends on weather conditions, which sometimes change rapidly; thus, VRE generators cannot be dispatched to follow variations in electricity demand. Electricity storage can play a critical role in balancing electricity supply and demand and can provide other services needed to keep decarbonized electricity systems reliable and cost-effective. Energy storage encompasses a spectrum of technologies that are differentiated in their material requirements and their value in low-carbon electricity systems. As electricity grids evolve to include large-scale deployment of storage technologies, policies must be adjusted to avoid excess and inequitable burdens on consumers, to encourage electrification for economy-wide decarbonization, and to enable robust economic growth, particularly in emerging market developing economy countries. Social justice and equity must be included in system design. The time horizon for this study is 2050, though the authors are also interested in technologies that can be deployed at scale in the nearer timeframe of 2030.

The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector, Woolf et al., US Department of Energy

The authors recognize the importance of utility regulatory advances to speed socially beneficial innovation for investor-owned electric companies. Among them is accelerating investigations into changes in electric industry structure, services, security, pricing, and market design to align with significant deployment of behind-the-meter technologies and other distributed energy resources and address equity issues for energy access and clean energy. In addition, the authors assert that “[a]chieving greater deployment of advanced electrical technologies will require states to implement regulatory reforms that allow utilities to recover the costs of larger research and development budgets alongside other forms of regulatory approval that encourage more adoption of new technologies.

Environmental Performance Index 2022. Ranking country performance on sustainability issues, Wolf et al., Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy

The index provides a data-driven summary of the state of sustainability around the world. Using 40 performance indicators across 11 issue categories, the index ranks 180 countries on their progress toward improving environmental health, protecting ecosystem vitality, and mitigating climate change. The index offers a scorecard that highlights leaders and laggards in environmental performance and provides practical guidance for countries that aspire to move toward a sustainable future.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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Comments

Comments 1 to 5:

  1. Doug and Marc,

    Thank you for finding and highlighting the 3 items regarding systemic understanding and the need for systemic changes to achieve a more successful limiting of the harm being done to the future of humanity.

    I look forward to learning more by reading them, and potentially reading additional items they refer to.

    The following BBC Worklife article "How self-deception allows people to lie" presents related understanding of how humans are tempted to think. It is regarding workplace situations. But it relates to the challenge of improving awareness and increasing understanding of the climate change harms of developed ways of living and thinking. It helps understand why it can be difficult to get people to learn to support important changes to what has developed, especially the systemic changes that are fundamental to better success on the climate change front. And the article concludes with a recommendation for the constant work, "systematic reasoning", required for a person to limit the likelihood that they have allowed their thinking to be harmfully deceived into harmful misunderstanding with a related potentially passionate resistance to learning that it is a harmful misunderstanding.

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  2. From One Planet's recommendation:

    "In one set of trials, the advisors were told about this potential reward at the very start of the experiment, before they started considering the different options. While they were ostensibly picking the best choice for the client, they were much more likely to go with the choice that was favourable to themselves.

    In the rest of the trials, however, the advisors were only told of this potential reward after they had been given some time to weigh up the pros and cons of each. This time few chose to let the reward influence their decision; they remained honest to their goal of giving the best advice to the client."

    I say this is a bright ray of hope— being better turns out to be extremely easy. We only need to learn and adopt certain habits. :-)

    The article also conveniently illustrates— commensurate with our featured trifecta— the kind of benefits we might obtain by better operationalizing hard-earned information on human behaviors. 

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  3. Doug,

    There are indeed bright rays of hope. But, for many people, it will not be extremely easy to learn and adopt helpful habits.

    Another way of presenting the challenge of learning to be less harmful and more helpful to others, learning to correct harmful developed perspectives and related biases, is to say that people simply need to set aside their 'learned shortcut gut-instinct predisposition regarding their evaluations of things' so that they can have the open curiosity of an inquisitive child.

    Growing up in an environment of competition for impressions of superiority relative to others can develop preferences for harmful misunderstanding that need to be recognised and be deliberately set aside in order to be open to learn what is required to be less harmful and more helpful to others.

    A big challenge for many people will be transitioning to the more 'open to diversity' perspective that is required to be an effective member of collaborative diverse group. Shifting away from a more restricted perspective can result in rejection by some members of a group that a person has develop an identity with.

    And, regrettably, many people will struggle to 'leave a group they have developed their identify within' even if they learn that there are significant harmful misunderstandings that the group fight against correcting. Some people will compromise better understanding to remain a member of their developed 'group identity'.

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  4. Another recommended reading that is aligned with the 3 articles highlighted on this week's New Research is the 2021 book "Under the sky we make" by Kimberly Nicholas PhD. It is a book about the harm of the developed "Exploitation Mindset: thinking that some humans should dominate other humans and that humans in general should dominate nature." It presents the need for a paradigm shift to a Regeneration Mindset which would naturally develop sustainable improvements for all of humanity far onto the future.

    The book includes a summary chapter called TLDR (Too Long Did't Read) which is recommended for people who don't have time to read a complete book (or fully read articles like the ones highlighted this week - I am midway through the second one but I have read all 3 abstracts).

    The TLDR's first point is "It's warming, it's us, we're sure, it's bad, we can fix it." And the 3rd summary point is "We need to clarify our values and shift our mindsets in line with what science tells us is necessary to stop climate and ecological breakdown and preserve humanity."

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  5. Having read all 3 I would add the following regarding the required paradigm shifts and systemic changes.

    A major challenge is ensuring that collective wisdom regarding how to limit harm done and help those needing assistance effectively governs and limits the harm done by 'clever humans figuring out how to benefit from harmul actions and related harmful misunderstanding'.

    The popular appeals of the 'freedom to believe and do whatever a person please' and/or the 'perception that certain types of people deserve to be exclusive groups protected from contamination or compromise by Others who aspire to be considered to be equally worthy people' has been harmfully successful at resisting correction of harmful misunderstandings that excuse harmful pursuits of benefit and superiority relative to others.

    Edward S. Herman's "Propaganda Model", as presented in the book and documentary "Manufacturing Consent" is a long established and fairly robust understanding of the problem of Free Speech protections for marketing. Legal restrictions have been developed for economic competition marketing (that people like Elon Musk appear to try to find clever loopholes in). But there are very few legal consequences for harmful misleading marketing by political competitors. Clever political misleading marketing to defend and excuse the harmful status quo can be seen to continue to happen with harmful abandon.

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