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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #4 2022

Posted on 27 January 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

"In the event of an actual climate emergency..."

Most of us know the drill for our role as airline passengers. By briefings and inspection, cabin crew give us quick instructions on matters of physics and then make sure our lesson has sunk home, by making sure our safety belts are fastened. Disagreement on and refusal of our applied physics lessons are not options. Buckle up, or stay home. It's that simple. Why would it be otherwise? Physics follows its own rules, not ours; E ∝ mv2 and the destruction that comes from that are not personal matters.  

For quite a while now, learning about other physics related to airline travel typically happens long before we walk a jetway and enter an aircraft cabin. One would have to be flightless and living beneath a rock to have avoided learning about the annoyingly, inconveniently large CO2 footprint we create as commercial aviation customers and consumers. As with the more direct physics of staying strapped into our chairs in the event of problems, most of us agree with or at least defer to the science of aviation being a climate threat; reasonable people understand that our personal choice to "fly" comes with a physics pricetag expressed in warming of the planet. 

Unlike our sensible respect for the physics underpinnings of safety belts, what we perfectly well know as a rational matter about our impact on climate as armchair aviators isn't translating into conscientious behavior when it comes to flying. In Willingness-to-pay for carbon dioxide offsets: Field evidence on revealed preferences in the aviation industry Sebastian Berger et al. meticulously employ a set of 62,000+ real-world airline ticket purchases and assess what ticket purchasers are willing to pay for CO2 offsets. In the real world today, the authors crisply show that "median willingness-to-pay to voluntarily offset a ton of carbon dioxide from flight-related emissions is zero, with the mean willingness-to-pay being around 1 EUR." 

This is a finding that might surprise even a diehard cynic, or ignite cynicism in an otherwise sunny disposition. Assuming that arguments over the efficacy of offsets are a bit too esoteric to be a large factor in decisions at this retail level, an essentially complete lack of cooperation is puzzling. It's tempting to cast harsh judgements on air travelers, in the face of such seeming complacency. The statistical outcome  encompasses large numbers of individual people quite able and even eager to entertain discussions about climate change and how personal choices affect climate, including choices about traveling by aircraft.

Leaving aside all questions about the fundamental premise of offsets and aviation, here's a chance to learn more about ourselves. Perhaps we're not looking at a fundamentally sad and depressing fact of human nature. Maybe these numbers can be improved.  More data might be helpful toward resolving our true qualities.

Berger et al. is distinguished and a distinct advancement in understanding through its reliance on empirical data produced by actual ticket purchases. As opposed to asking abstract hypotheticals, in the case of buying a real ticket a concrete method to incorporate offsets becomes involved. The process of exposure to offset options is well described in the paper. To the purchaser it's not necessarily obvious that offsets are important or even (with inattention) available, hence there is no solidly certain cue to memory and no overt nudge to be conscientious included in the purchase process. Offset is an ancillary bolt-on along with other optional features of the flight in question.

Perhaps we're seeing here a communications failure in the airline ticketing process; Given what Berger and this team of authors have found, it would be very interesting to see the effect of a) making offset choice an unavoidable decision point in the purchase process and b) making the choice to opt out of a precalculated offset necessary in order to make the "wrong" decision. In the latter implementation, perhaps it's the case that cognitive discomfort caused by actively choosing "wrong" would have a powerful effect.  it may be necessary or at least better to engineer a collision between a purchaser and thinking about knock-on effects of travel,  provide a blatant nudge fully intimate to the moment of purchase. 

 Other notables:

Globally elevated chemical weathering rates beneath glaciers is yet another paper revealing a more subtle effect of warming, and the amazing ultimate reach of "just a trace gas." 

Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: science-policy challenges across scales is by its nature a good foothold on what the future portends for much of Europe.

Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities. What's on the label is what's in the tin. The authors argue that we're in a situation of runaway technology exceeding safe planetary limits.  

Hydrogen’s Hidden Emissions. Shell’s misleading climate claims for its Canadian fossil hydrogen project. Fossil fuels with a simpler molecule and another name? Read to find out. 

All of the above are open acces and free to read. 

145 articles in 53 journals by 761 contributing authors

Observations of climate change, effects

Siberian taiga and tundra fire regimes from 2001–2020
Talucci et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3f07

Changes of Southern Hemisphere westerlies in the future warming climate
Deng et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106040

Earlier snowmelt predominates advanced spring vegetation greenup in Alaska
Zheng et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108828

Active fires show an increasing elevation trend in the tropical highlands
Xiao et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16097

The changing extreme values of summer relative humidity in the Tarim Basin in northwestern China
Nian et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-021-06110-2

Atlantic Water inflow through the Yermak Pass Branch: Evolution since 2007
Artana et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
10.1029/2021jc018006

(provisional link) Tibetan Plateau temperature extreme changes and their elevation dependency from ground-based observations

Decreases in mean annual streamflow and interannual streamflow variability across snow-affected catchments under a warming climate
Liu et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl097442

Increasing Winter Ocean-to-Ice Heat Flux in the Beaufort Gyre Region, Arctic Ocean Over 2006–2018
Zhong et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl096216

Globally elevated chemical weathering rates beneath glaciers
Li et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-28032-1

The shift in temperature zone boundaries in China based on the changes of the climate growing season in the Qinling Mountains from 1964 to 2015
Deng et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-03926-8

Trends in air mass frequencies across Europe
Petrou et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-03921-z

Cold air outbreaks in Fram Strait: climatology, trends, and observations during an extreme season in 2020
Dahlke et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021jd035741

Changes in Great Plains low-level jet structure and associated precipitation over the twentieth century
Ferguson Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd035859

Trends in seasonal and monthly rainfall for semi-arid Merguellil basin, central Tunisia
Chargui et al. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
10.1007/s00703-022-00859-9

Characterizing temporal trends of meteorological extremes in Southern and Central Ontario, Canada
Shah et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100411

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, contributors, effects

KrigR—a tool for downloading and statistically downscaling climate reanalysis data
Kusch & Davy Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac48b3

A global coral-bleaching database, 1980–2020
van Woesik & Kratochwill Scientific Data
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-022-01121-y

A dynamical adjustment perspective on extreme event attribution
Terray
Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-2021-40

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessment and projection of elevation-dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau by CMIP6 models
Zhu & Fan Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03889-2

Projections of indices of daily temperature and precipitation based on bias-adjusted CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations
Dosio et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03307-0

Extreme wind-wave climate projections for the Indian Ocean under changing climate scenarios
Krishnan et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-022-06147-x

Future change in extreme precipitation in East Asian spring and Mei-yu seasons in two high-resolution AGCMs
Chen et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100408

Climate-driven Mediterranean fire hazard assessments for 2020–2100 on the light of past millennial variability
Lestienne et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-021-03258-y

(provisional link) Increasing future precipitation in the southwestern US in the summer and its contrasting mechanism with decreasing precipitation in the spring

Possible changes in Sudan's future precipitation under the high and medium emission scenarios based on bias adjusted GCMs
Hamadalnel et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106036

Climate change projections for Greece in the 21st century from high-resolution EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations
Georgoulias et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106049

Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S
Bourgeois et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5

Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models
Meresa et al. Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-021-05152-3

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection GCMA

Regional climate modeling of the diurnal cycle of precipitation and associated atmospheric circulation patterns over an Andean glacier region (Antisana, Ecuador)
Junquas et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-021-06079-y

Disentangling the effect of regional SST bias on the double-ITCZ problem
Lee et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access 10.1007/s00382-021-06107-x

Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections
Cheung et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06136-0

Spurious Late Historical-Era Warming in CESM2 Driven by Prescribed Biomass Burning Emissions
Fasullo et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl097420

Impacts of the Unforced Pattern Effect on the Cloud Feedback in CERES Observations and Climate Models
Chao et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl096299

Evaluating the nature and extent of changes to climate sensitivity between FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-g3
Wang et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Open Access 10.1029/2021jd035852

The pacific decadal precession and its relationship to tropical pacific decadal variability in CMIP6 models
Rogers et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access 10.1007/s00382-021-06114-y

(provisional link) AMS workshop report:Convection-Permitting Models for Climate Research

Dynamics of ENSO Phase-locking and Its Biases in Climate Models
Chen & Jin Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl097603

A piecewise integration approach for model error-induced biases of greenhouse gas contribution to global warming
Li et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access 10.1007/s00382-021-06089-w

Cryosphere & climate change

Nonlinear sensitivity of glacier mass balance to future climate change unveiled by deep learning
Bolibar et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-28033-0

North Atlantic cooling is slowing down mass loss of Icelandic glaciers
Noël et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl095697

Climate warming and permafrost thaw in the Russian Arctic: potential economic impacts on public infrastructure by 2050
Melnikov et al. Natural Hazards
10.1007/s11069-021-05179-6

Sea level & climate change

Modelling present and future climate in the Mediterranean Sea: a focus on sea-level change
Sannino et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access 10.1007/s00382-021-06132-w

Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: science-policy challenges across scales
van den Hurk et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100403

Paleoclimate

(provisional link) Tropical peatlands in the anthropocene: lessons from the past

Ocean response in transient simulations of the last deglaciation dominated by underlying ice-sheet reconstruction and method of meltwater distribution
Kapsch et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl096767

Comparison of Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice between the last nine interglacials and the future
Wu et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-022-06140-4

Vegetation response to rapid climate change during the Lateglacial–Early Holocene transition at Gola di Lago, southern Switzerland
Höhn et al. Boreas
Open Access pdf 10.1111/bor.12578

Southeastern United States hydroclimate during Holocene abrupt climate events: evidence from new stalagmite isotopic records from Alabama
Medina?Elizalde et al. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
10.1029/2021pa004346

Biology & climate change

Earlier snowmelt predominates advanced spring vegetation greenup in Alaska
Zheng et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108828

Sea ice extent and phenology influence breeding of high-Arctic seabirds: 4 decades of monitoring in Nunavut, Canada
Gutowsky et al. Oecologia
10.1007/s00442-022-05117-8

The effect of climate variability factors on potential net primary productivity uncertainty: An analysis with a stochastic spatial 3-PG model
Restrepo et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108812

Temperature thresholds drive the global distribution of soil fungal decomposers
Feng et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16096

Optimum growth temperature declines with body size within fish species
Lindmark et al.
Open Access pdf 10.1101/2021.01.21.427580

Climate Sensitivity and Ecoclimate Sensitivity: Theory, Usage, and Past Implications for the Future Biospheric Responses
Williams et al. Current Climate Change Reports
10.1007/s40641-022-00179-5

Climate change may reduce suitable habitats for Tacinga palmadora (Cactaceae) in the Caatinga dry forest: species distribution modeling considering plant-pollinator interactions
Centeno-Alvarado et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-021-01873-0

A background-free phenology index for improved monitoring of vegetation phenology
Xie et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108826

Altitudinal difference of growth-climate response models in the north subtropical forests of China
Zhang et al. Dendrochronologia
10.1016/j.dendro.2022.125935

Unraveling a century of global change impacts on winter bird distributions in the eastern United States
Saunders et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16063

Global divergent trends of algal blooms detected by satellite during 1982–2018
Fang et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16077

Effect of climate change on potential distribution of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.) in the twenty-first century in Turkey
AYAN et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-03940-w

A global coral-bleaching database, 1980–2020
van Woesik & Kratochwill Scientific Data
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-022-01121-y

Increased drought frequency causes the extra-compensation of climate wetness on tree growth to fade across inner Asia
Xu et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108829

Local adaptation in a marine foundation species: Implications for resilience to future global change
DuBois et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16080

(provisional link) Temperature-precipitation background affects spatial heterogeneity of spring phenology responses to climate change in northern grasslands (30°N-55°N)

Assessment of the responses of spatiotemporal vegetation changes to climatic variability in Bangladesh
Fattah & Morshed Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-03943-7

One hundred-seventy years of stressors erode salmon fishery climate resilience in California’s warming landscape
Munsch et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16029

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis valid? A global analysis for carbon dioxide emissions
Kaya Kanl? & Küçükefe Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-022-02138-4

Asymmetric Response of the Biological Carbon Pump to the ENSO in the South China Sea
Li et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl095254

The role of terrestrial productivity and hydrology in regulating aquatic dissolved organic carbon concentrations in boreal catchments
Zhu et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16094

Validation of in situ and remote sensing-derived methane refinery emissions in a complex wind environment and chemical implications
Leifer et al. Atmospheric Environment
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118900

Compound hydroclimatic extremes in a semi-arid grassland: Drought, deluge, and the carbon cycle
Hoover et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16081

Quantifying net carbon fixation by Tibetan alpine ecosystems should consider multiple anthropogenic activities
Ma & Zuo Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2115676119

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Altitudinal difference of growth-climate response models in the north subtropical forests of China
Zhang et al. Dendrochronologia
10.1016/j.dendro.2022.125935

High potential of stable carbon sequestration in phytoliths of China’s grasslands
Song et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16092

Existing land uses constrain climate change mitigation potential of forest restoration in India
Gopalakrishna et al. Conservation Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1111/conl.12867

Decarbonization

Decarbonization strategies for Switzerland considering embedded greenhouse gas emissions in electricity imports
Rüdisüli et al. Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112794

Techno-economic assessment of increasing the renewable energy supply in the Canary Islands: The case of Tenerife and Gran Canaria
Qiblawey et al. Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112791

Future emissions of particles and gases that cause regional air pollution in California under different greenhouse gas mitigation strategies
Li et al. Atmospheric Environment
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.118960

Conflicted transitions: Exploring the actors, tactics, and outcomes of social opposition against energy infrastructure
Sovacool et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102473

Analysis of Some Major Limitations of Analytical Top-Down Wind-Farm Models
Emeis Boundary
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10546-021-00684-4

Cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment of all-solid-state lithium-ion batteries for sustainable design and manufacturing
Zhang et al. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
10.1007/s11367-022-02023-2

The aluminium demand risk of terawatt photovoltaics for net zero emissions by 2050
Lennon et al. Nature Sustainability
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-021-00838-9

Geoengineering climate

Opinion: To assess marine cloud brightening's technical feasibility, we need to know what to study—and when to stop
Diamond et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2118379119

Aerosols

Long-term trends in Aerosol Optical Depth obtained across the globe using multi-satellite measurements
Gupta et al. Atmospheric Environment
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.118953

The deep blue day is decreasing in China
Wang et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-021-03898-1

Climate change communications & cognition

Willingness-to-pay for carbon dioxide offsets: Field evidence on revealed preferences in the aviation industry
Berger et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102470

Great expectations: Public opinion about energy transition
Thomas et al. Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112777

Culture and identity in climate policy
Patterson WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.765

Users’ Cognitive Load: A Key Aspect to Successfully Communicate Visual Climate Information
Calvo et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-20-0166.1

Community perceptions of climate change and ecosystem-based adaptation in the mangrove ecosystem of the Rufiji Delta, Tanzania
Nyangoko et al. Climate and Development
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2021.2022449

Stories of intentional action mobilise climate policy support and action intentions
Sabherwal & Shreedhar Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-021-04392-4

Adolescents’ Representations of Climate Change: Exploring the Self-other Thema in a Focus Group Study
Lee & Barnett Environmental Communication
10.1080/17524032.2021.2023202

Opposing effects of Spirituality and Religious Fundamentalism on environmental attitudes
Preston & Shin Journal of Environmental Psychology
10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101772

Conflicted transitions: Exploring the actors, tactics, and outcomes of social opposition against energy infrastructure
Sovacool et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102473

Limited evidence that carbon tax rebates have increased public support for carbon pricing
Mildenberger et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-021-01270-9

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Costs and effectiveness of climate change adaptation in agriculture: a systematic review from the NENA region
El Chami et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2021.1997703

Assessment of agricultural emissions, climate change mitigation and adaptation practices in Ethiopia
Feliciano et al. Climate Policy
Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2028597

Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management
Palacios-Abrantes et al.
Open Access pdf 10.1101/2021.08.26.456854

Climate change in the temperature and precipitation at two contrasting sites of the Argentinean wheat region
Basile et al.
Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-435416/v1

Environmental determination of spring wheat yield in a climatic transition zone under global warming
Zhao et al. International Journal of Biometeorology
10.1007/s00484-021-02196-9

Deforestation-free land-use change and organic matter-centered management improve the C footprint of oil palm expansion
Quezada et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16069

Impact of temperature on agricultural drought occurrence under the effects of climate change
Bouabdelli et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-03935-7

Heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop yields across altitudes in Ethiopia
Ginbo Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03306-1

Integrating climate-smart agri-innovative technology adoption and agribusiness management skills to improve the livelihoods of smallholder female cocoa farmers in Ghana
Yamoah & Kaba Climate and Development
10.1080/17565529.2021.2024125

Potential greenhouse gas emissions mitigation through increased grazing pressure: a case study in North Portugal
Ameray et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2029575

Risk and reward of the global truffle sector under predicted climate change
Cejka et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac47c4

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Eco-Performance at Farm Level: A Parametric Approach
Stetter & Sauer Environmental and Resource Economics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-021-00642-1

Crop calendar optimization for climate change adaptation in rice-based multiple cropping systems of India and Bangladesh
Wang et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108830

The effect of temperature on grapevine phenological intervals: Sensitivity of budburst to flowering
Cameron et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108841

Climate and agronomy, not genetics, underpin recent maize yield gains in favorable environments
Rizzo et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2113629119

Contributions of climate change to cereal yields in Tibet, 1993–2017
Ding & Shi Journal of Geographical Sciences
10.1007/s11442-022-1938-0

Climate change could reduce and spatially reconfigure cocoa cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050
Igawa et al. PLOS ONE
Open Access 10.1371/journal.pone.0262729

Hydrology & climate change

Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries
He et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03289-5

Simulation and assessment of projected climate change impacts on urban flood events: insights from flooding characteristic metrics
Hou et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd035360

Future urban heat island influence on precipitation
Steensen et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-021-06105-z

Trends in drought occurrence and severity at mid-latitude European stations (1951–2015) estimated using standardized precipitation (SPI) and precipitation and evapotranspiration (SPEI) indices
Dukat et al. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00703-022-00858-w

Decreases in mean annual streamflow and interannual streamflow variability across snow-affected catchments under a warming climate
Liu et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl097442

Global climate-driven trade-offs between the water retention and cooling benefits of urban greening
Cuthbert et al.
Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5k02f

The analysis of summer 2020 urban flood in Zagreb (Croatia) from hydro-meteorological point of view
Nimac et al. Natural Hazards
10.1007/s11069-022-05210-4

Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models
Meresa et al. Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-021-05152-3

Climate change economics

Regional trade agreement burdens global carbon emissions mitigation
Tian et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-28004-5

A harmonized country-level dataset to support the global stocktake regarding loss and damage from climate change
Scown et al. Geoscience Data Journal
Open Access pdf 10.1002/gdj3.147

National climate funds: a new dataset on national financing vehicles for climate change
Bhandary Climate Policy
Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2027223

Emission reduction cooperation in a dynamic supply chain with competitive retailers
Wang et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-021-02031-6

Do firms respond differently to the carbon pricing by industrial sector? How and why? A comparison between manufacturing and electricity generation sectors using firm-level panel data in Korea
Kim & Bae Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112773

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Impact of critical success factors and supportive leadership on sustainable success of renewable energy projects: Empirical evidence from Pakistan
Zaman et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112793

How to promote sustainable adoption of residential distributed photovoltaic generation in China? An employment of incentive and punitive policies
Wang et al. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
10.1007/s11027-021-09977-y

Misinformation and Instant Access: Inconsistent Reporting during Extreme Climatic Events, Reflecting on Tropical Cyclone Idai
Weather, Climate, and Society
10.1175/wcas-d-21-0085.1

Stories of intentional action mobilise climate policy support and action intentions
Sabherwal & Shreedhar Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-021-04392-4

Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis valid? A global analysis for carbon dioxide emissions
Kaya Kanl? & Küçükefe Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-022-02138-4

Carbon emissions reductions from Indonesia’s moratorium on forest concessions are cost-effective yet contribute little to Paris pledges
Groom et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2102613119

Effect mechanism of Chinese-style decentralization on regional carbon emissions and policy improvement: evidence from China’s 12 urban agglomerations
Xu & Li Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-021-02063-y

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: science-policy challenges across scales
van den Hurk et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100403

Global climate-driven trade-offs between the water retention and cooling benefits of urban greening
Cuthbert et al.
Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5k02f

Increasing heat-stress inequality in a warming climate
Alizadeh et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002488

Projections of Freshwater Use in the United States under Climate Change
Warziniack et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002222

Power in resilience and resilience's power in climate change scholarship
Garcia et al. WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.762

Designing fit-for-context Climate Change Adaptation Tracking: Towards a Framework for Analyzing the Institutional Structures of Knowledge Production and Use
Lucy et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100401

Cross-border migration on a warming planet: A policy framework
Byravan & Rajan WIREs Climate Change
10.1002/wcc.763

Towards effective stakeholder collaboration in building urban resilience in Phnom Penh: opportunities and obstacles
Nop et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-021-02055-y

Designing synergetic and sustainable policy mixes - a methodology to address conflictive environmental issues
Kosow et al. Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2022.01.007

Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change through residential urban green structures: co-benefits to thermal comfort, biodiversity, carbon storage and social interaction
Schmidt & Walz Walz Walz Walz Walz Walz Walz Walz
Open Access pdf 10.3897/oneeco.6.e65706.suppl1

(provisional link) From federal transfers and local investments to a potential convergence of COVID-19 and climate change: The case study of São Paulo city

Climate change impacts on human health

Increasing heat-stress inequality in a warming climate
Alizadeh et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002488

Global water shortage and potable water safety; Today’s concern and tomorrow’s crisis
Salehi Environment International
Open Access 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106936

Climate change impacts on human culture

Impacts of climate change on organized sport: A scoping review
Orr et al. WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.760

Climate warming and permafrost thaw in the Russian Arctic: potential economic impacts on public infrastructure by 2050
Melnikov et al. Natural Hazards
10.1007/s11069-021-05179-6

Other

Effects of ocean mesoscale eddies on atmosphere–sea ice–ocean interactions off Adélie Land, East Antarctica
Huot et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-021-06115-x

Attribution of observed recent decrease in low clouds over the northeastern Pacific to cloud-controlling factors
Andersen et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl096498

Extreme citizens science for climate justice: linking pixel to people for mapping gas flaring in Amazon rainforest
Facchinelli et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac40af

Patterns of atmospheric circulation in Western Europe linked to heavy rainfall in Germany: preliminary analysis into the 2021 heavy rainfall episode
Ibebuchi Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-03945-5

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A joint climate and nature cure: A transformative change perspective
Rusch et al. Ambio
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-021-01679-8

Transition from waste management to circular economy: the European Union roadmap
Chioatto & Sospiro Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-021-02050-3

Opinion: To assess marine cloud brightening's technical feasibility, we need to know what to study—and when to stop
Diamond et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2118379119

Willingness-to-pay for carbon dioxide offsets: Field evidence on revealed preferences in the aviation industry
Berger et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102470

Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities
Persson et al. Environmental Science & Technology
Open Access 10.1021/acs.est.1c04158

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate-Washing Litigation: Legal Liability for Misleading Climate Communications (pdf), Bhargava et al., The Climate Social Science Network

The contents of the research report enhance the legal community’s understanding of climate-related ‘greenwashing’ litigation. Greenwashing is unsubstantiated or misleading claims regarding an actor’s environmental performance. The authors analyze this type of litigation by examining key cases and developments, particularly cases and complaints brought against the largest emitters of greenhouse gases who are predominantly non-state actors.

2021 U.S. Geothermal Power Production and District Heating Market Report (pdf), Robins et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory

The report provides policymakers, regulators, developers, researchers, engineers, financiers, and other stakeholders with up-to-date information and data reflecting the 2019 geothermal power production and district heating markets, technologies, and trends in the United States. The authors present analysis of the current state of the U.S. geothermal market and industry for both the power production and district heating sectors, with consideration of developing power projects. Geothermal heat pumps, although a key technology in the wider use of geothermal resources, are outside the scope of this report. In addition, the report evaluates the impact of state and federal policy, presents current research on geothermal development, and describes future opportunities for the U.S. geothermal market and industry.

Solar on Superstores. Big roofs, big potential for renewable energy (pdf), Huxley-Reicher et al., Frontier Group

The flat, open, sunny roofs of giant grocery stores, retail stores and shopping malls are perfect locations for solar panels. The United States has more than 100,000 big box retail stores, supercenters, large grocery stores and malls, with almost 7.2 billion cumulative square feet of rooftop space. The rooftops of America’s big box stores and shopping centers have the potential to generate 84.4 terawatt-hours (TWh) of solar electricity each year, equivalent to the amount of electricity that would power almost 8 million average U.S. homes, or more than 30,400 typical Walmart stores. California, Florida, Texas, Ohio and Illinois have the largest big box store solar generation potential. Generating the full 84.4 TWh of clean solar power potential from America’s superstores would reduce global warming pollution by more than 52 million metric tons of CO2 annually – equivalent to taking over 11.3 million passenger vehicles off the road. Big box stores and shopping centers could replace half of their annual electricity use by fully building out their rooftop solar potential. Producing electricity on rooftops, close to where the electricity will be used, reduces energy losses that happen during electricity transmission and distribution – losses that made up 6% of gross electricity generation in 2020.7 Solar power also makes the grid more resilient to outages and disruptions.

The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

The objective of the state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture report is to build awareness of the status of land and water resources, highlighting the risks, and informing on related opportunities and challenges. It also aims to underline the essential contribution of appropriate policies, institutions, and investments. Recent assessments, projections and scenarios point to the accelerated depletion of land and water resources and associated loss of biodiversity. The report highlights the major risks and trends related to land, soil and water resources, and presents the means for resolving competition among users and generating the desirable benefits. The report provides an update of the knowledge base and presents a suite of responses and actions to enable decision makers to make an informed transformation from degradation and vulnerability towards sustainability and resilience.

Hydrogen’s Hidden Emissions. Shell’s misleading climate claims for its Canadian fossil hydrogen project (pdf), Global Witness

Shell says the carbon capture system at its 'Quest' fossil hydrogen plant in Canada stopped five million tons of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere in less than five years. A Global Witness investigation found the hydrogen plant released a further 7.5 million tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere over the same period - emissions from the plant that Shell does not publicize. Only 48% of the carbon emissions produced at Shell's plant are being captured - far less than promised by the industry in general. When the plant's overall greenhouse gas emissions are factored in, such as methane pollution from the fossil gas supply chain, only 39% of its total emissions are captured.

Southern Company’s Troubled Vogtle Nuclear Project (pdf), Institute for Energy Economics and financial Analysis

Georgia Power Company, Oglethorpe Power Corporation, the Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia, and the City of Dalton, Georgia, are the four owners of the two new reactors being built at the existing Plant Vogtle site.1 Originally estimated by the owners to cost slightly more than $14 billion and to be in service in April 2016 and April 2017, the total cost has more than doubled, climbing above $30 billion. The owners now estimate commercial operation will not begin until 2022 and 2023—more than six years behind schedule.

Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) Study: Main Report (pdf), Reeve et al. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

The study investigates the engineering and economic performance of a transactive energy retail market coordinating a high penetration of customer-side flexible energy assets. The study seeks to answer whether such an implementation is cost effective for customers, recovers sufficient revenue for Distribution System Operators, and is equally applicable and beneficial to a range of flexible asset types, renewable generation scenarios, and market assumptions. Using a highly interdisciplinary co-simulation and valuation framework, this assessment encompasses the entire electrical delivery system from bulk system generation and transmission, through the distribution system, to the modeling of individual customer buildings and flexible assets (including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning units, water heaters, batteries, and electric vehicles). The study exercises a transactive energy retail market coordination scheme designed to integrate with an existing day-ahead and real-time competitive wholesale electricity market. Software decision-making agents are designed for the retail market operator as well as various price-responsive flexible assets.

(Also see DSO+T: Integrated System Simulation DSO+T Study: Volume 2; DSO+T: Transactive Energy Coordination Framework DSO+T Study: Volume 3; DSO+T: Valuation Methodology and Economic Metrics DSO+T Study: Volume 4)

Confronting the Wildfire Crisis. A Strategy for Protecting Communities and Improving Resilience in America’s Forests (pdf), U.S. Forest Service

Under the strategy, the Forest Service will work with partners to engineer a paradigm shift by focusing fuels and forest health treatments more strategically and at the scale of the problem, using the best available science as the guide. The Forest Service, has the science and tools to size and place treatments in a way that will truly make a difference. The strategy’s focus is on key “firesheds”—large, forested landscapes and rangelands with a high likelihood that an ignition could expose homes, communities, and infrastructure to wildfire. Firesheds, typically are about 250,000 acres in size and are mapped to match the scale of community exposure to wildfire. Under this 10-year strategy, the Forest Service will work with partners to treat up to an additional 20 million acres on National Forest System lands; treat up to an additional 30 million acres of other Federal, State, Tribal, and private lands; and develop a plan for long term maintenance beyond the 10 years.

Confronting the Wildfire Crisis. A 10-Year Implementation Plan (pdf), U.S. Forest Service

The implementation plan builds on a national strategy for confronting the wildfire crisis facing the Nation. The implementation plan focuses on changing the trajectory of risk by identifying the right locations and tools for fuels and forest health treatments that are science-based and equitable; developing needed workforce capacity and investing in the enabling conditions required for success; working with partners across jurisdictions to develop and implement projects that are landscape scale, outcome-driven, and community ready; supporting planning and investments in fire-adapted communities and on partnerships to restore and reforest areas already affected by fire and mitigate risks associated with postfire disaster events.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

What does "(provisional link)" mean?

When the input list for New Research is processed, some articles do not produce a result from the journal databases we employ. Usually this is because the publisher has not yet supplied information to doi.org for the given article. In these cases and in order to still include timely listing of articles, we employ an alternate search tactic. While this method is usually correct, sometimes the link shown will lead to an incorrect destination (available time does not always permit manual checking of these). We invite readers to submit corrections in comments below.

Each edition of New Research is reprocessed some two weeks after intitial publication to catch stragglers into the DOI ecosystem. Many "provisional links" will end up being corrected as part of this process. 

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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