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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9 2022

Posted on 3 March 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Where is the "hard" science?

Our conventional understanding of the term "hard science" is that it pertains to such "natural" subjects as  chemistry, physics, or astronomy, the conceit of the term being that such things exhibit "hard" features. Meanwhile, true to our own nature, we tend to exclude ourselves from nature and natural processes when thinking of our species' behaviors as a matter of investigation. This is an odd outlook considering that we ourselves are features of nature. Notably,each of us includes a broad set of properties known as "human nature." 

The study of human nature is a truly hard science, perhaps the hardest of all. It is not only experimentally awkward but also not amenable to granular prediction as a matter of application. The study of human nature is especially difficult given experimental constraints; we cannot coldly and clinically assemble human populations like bricks of graphite and rods of enriched uranium and record outcomes against prediction. Somewhat more akin to atomic physics, with human nature we necessarily must deal with collections as opposed to individuals in our formation and testing of hypotheses. No individual atom or molecule can be fully described as a matter of prediction in a natural or engineered setting, and nor can a single human's choices and actions be predicted.  Instead, by and large our hypotheses about our behaviors especially as large populations can only be tested in fortuitous, accidental circumstances, situations we can't simply arrange at will, due to ethical constraints. This is truly hard, compared to buying and assembling reactor components.

Traditional "hard scientists" catch a lot of knocks in connection with what's considered failure at helping the general public to understand, confront and deal with anthropogenic climate change. In a perspective published in Environmental Sociology, Stewart Lockie leads us to wonder whether this is not only unfair but even a matter of barking up the wrong tree entirely. Mainstreaming climate change sociology assesses the connection of sociological disciplines  to climate change and finds plenty of valuable work. But Lockie argues that like a powerful engine disconnected from wheels needing turning, disciplines of the study of human nature are largely unexploited by the urgent enterprise of communicationg our species' collision with Earth's systems. Lockie:

"It is not that IPCC assessments ignore the social dimensions of climate change altogether. In fact, they report on risks to human health, livelihoods, food systems, cities and natural resource availability alongside vulnerability and adaptive capacity in relation to these risks. What renders the assessments sociologically naïve is not ignorance of the anthropogenic drivers and consequences of climate change but simplistic assumptions about the relationships between science, policy and politics and about the dynamics of social change more generally."

If by "climate science" we include the broadly accepted principal forcing agent consisting of all of us, then by all means it seems imperative that we and our nature be woven into our understanding at the deepest level. It is amply obvious by now that our insight into the "hard science" of climate change is more than adequate in terms of telling us what we need to do. Arguably, our real deficit lies in using what we also already know of human nature to help us do better.

Other notables:

Enhanced Arctic warming amplification revealed in a low-emission scenario. Arctic amplification higher with lower emissions. Wait-- what!? Not what we'd expect; authors explain.

Global predictions of coral reef dissolution in the Anthropocene. "Net zero" calcification to happen ~2050, after which overall shrinkage is a matter of relatively simple chemistry, thanks to ocean acidification. 

Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions. A problem we might wish to see? "It depends," but in any case it seems there may be a lot of "lash" in our climate adjustment knobs.

Widespread use of National Academies consensus reports by the American public. A citizenry choosing wisely is a pleasant thing to behold.

136 articles in 54 journals by 682 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Does Disabling Cloud Radiative Feedbacks Change Spatial Patterns of Surface Greenhouse Warming and Cooling?
Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0391.1

(provisional link) Asymmetric Warming/Cooling Response to CO2 Increase/Decrease Mainly Due to Non-Logarithmic Forcing, not Feedbacks

Does More Moisture in the Atmosphere Lead to More Intense Rains?
Manzato Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jas-d-21-0117.1

Observations of climate change, effects

(provisional link) Persistent Ross Sea Freshening from Imbalance West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting

Abrupt ecological shifts of lakes during the Anthropocene
Huang et al. Earth
10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103981

Record Summers in Europe – Variations in drought and heavy precipitation during 1901–2018
Hänsel et al. International Journal of Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7587

Severe Lake Heatwaves Attributable to Human-Induced Global Warming
Woolway et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl097031

Multi-decadal environmental change in the Barents Sea recorded by seal teeth
de la Vega et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16138

Detectable anthropogenic forcing on the long-term changes of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Zhao et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-022-06189-1

A recent weakening of winter temperature association between Arctic and Asia
Wu et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4b51

Winter anticyclone activities in Siberia and their relationship to the regional temperature anomaly
Lu et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7590

Spatiotemporal variability of event-based rainstorm: the perspective of rainfall pattern and concentration
He et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7588

The Biogeochemical Legacy of Arctic Subglacial Sediments Exposed by Glacier Retreat
Vinšová et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
10.1029/2021gb007126

Changes of precipitation pattern in China: 1961–2010
Zhang & Zhao Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-03986-w

Amplified warming induced by large-scale application of water-saving techniques
Fu et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4b52

Characteristics and trend analysis of absolute and relative temperature extremes indices and related indices of Kolkata
Patra & Satpati Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-03975-z

Statistical characteristics, trends, and variability of rainfall in Shanxi province, China, during the period 1957–2019
Gao et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-03924-w

Analysis of the atmospheric direct dynamic source for the westerly extended WPSH and record-breaking Plum Rain in 2020
Zhao et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-022-06186-4

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, contributors, effects

Influence of Trends on Subseasonal Temperature Prediction Skill
Wulff et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
10.1002/qj.4259

Southern ocean sea level anomaly in the sea ice-covered sector from multimission satellite observations
Auger et al. Scientific Data
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-022-01166-z

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison
Zapata et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5141

Emergent Constraints on CMIP6 Climate Warming Projections: Contrasting Cloud- and Surface Temperature–Based Constraints
Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0468.1

The role of an interactive Greenland ice sheet in the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth-PISM
Madsen et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06184-6

Assessing the impacts of climate change on climatic extremes in the Congo River Basin
Karam et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03326-x

Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation
Leach et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10508424.1

Observational constraint on the future projection of temperature in winter over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 models
Peng et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5371

Enhanced Arctic warming amplification revealed in a low-emission scenario
Ono et al. Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00354-4

(provisional link) Impacts of Precipitation Modeling on Cloud Feedback in MIROC6

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Scaife et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-719

Increased Variability of Biomass Burning Emissions in CMIP6 Amplifies Hydrologic Cycle in the CESM2 Large Ensemble
Heyblom et al.
10.1002/essoar.10508618.1

Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle
McCoy et al.
10.1002/essoar.10509444.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection GCMA

Multiscale evaluation of CMIP5 models using wavelet-based descriptive and diagnostic techniques
Gallegati Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03269-9

Rainfall in uncoupled and coupled versions of the MetUM climate model over Central Africa: Investigation of processes during the September-November rainy season
Taguela et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7591

Evaluating the Eastward Propagation of the MJO in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Based on a Variety of Diagnostics
Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0378.1

(provisional link) Deficiencies of phenology models in simulating spatial and temporal variations in temperate spring leaf phenology

Evaluating the variability of surface soil moisture simulated within CMIP5 using SMAP data
Xi et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021jd035363

Rainy season precipitation forecasts in coastal Peru from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
Vavrus et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7586

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates
Tebaldi et al. Earth System Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021

Highlights from a Workshop on the Latest Updates on Coupling Technologies and Coupled Applications in Earth System Modeling
Valcke Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0045.1

Cryosphere & climate change

Thickness simulation of landfast ice along Mawson Coast, East Antarctica based on a snow/ice high-resolution thermodynamic model
Li et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.02.005

Brief communication: Impact of common ice mask in surface mass balance estimates over the Antarctic ice sheet
Hansen et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-711-2022

Simulating the Holocene deglaciation across a marine terminating portion of southwestern Greenland in response to marine and atmospheric forcings
Cuzzone et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-47

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change
Bringloe et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16142

Abrupt ecological shifts of lakes during the Anthropocene
Huang et al. Earth
10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103981

Plant foliar nutrient response to active layer and water table depth in warming permafrost soils
Jasinski et al. Journal of Ecology
10.1111/1365-2745.13864

Global predictions of coral reef dissolution in the Anthropocene
Wolfe & Roff Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00363-3

Identifying climate thresholds for dominant natural vegetation types at the global scale using machine learning: Average climate versus extremes
Beigait? et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16110

Surface temperatures reveal patterns of vegetation water stress and their environmental drivers across the tropical Americas
Green et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16139

Vegetation response to climate and climatic extremes in northwest Bangladesh: a quantile regression approach
Uddin et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-03968-y

Increasing pollen production at high latitudes across animal-pollinated flowering plants
Cunha et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
10.1111/geb.13469

Deep demersal fish communities respond rapidly to warming in a frontal region between Arctic and Atlantic waters
Emblemsvåg et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16113

Growth rings show limited evidence for ungulates’ potential to suppress shrubs across the Arctic
Vuorinen et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5207

Diverse Responses of Phenology in Multi-Grassland to Environmental Factors on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau in China
Qin et al.
10.21203/rs.3.rs-863496/v1

Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
Nowak et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13456

A comparison of herbarium and citizen science phenology datasets for detecting response of flowering time to climate change in Denmark
Iwanycki Ahlstrand et al. International Journal of Biometeorology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-022-02238-w

Late monsoon threatens coral refugia in the Andaman Sea
Liu et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a30

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Probabilistic projections of baseline twenty-first century CO2 emissions using a simple calibrated integrated assessment model
Srikrishnan et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03279-7

Life cycle assessment of behind-the-meter Bitcoin mining at US power plant
Roeck & Drennen The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-022-02025-0

(provisional link) Large CO2 emitters as seen from satellite: Comparison to a gridded global emission inventory

Aragonite dissolution protects calcite at the seafloor
Sulpis et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-28711-z

Estimating CO2 emissions for 108 000 European cities
Moran et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2021-299

Tree functional traits, forest biomass, and tree species diversity interact with site properties to drive forest soil carbon
Augusto & Bo?a Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-28748-0

Multi-decadal environmental change in the Barents Sea recorded by seal teeth
de la Vega et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16138

Ignoring carbon emissions from thermokarst ponds results in overestimation of tundra net carbon uptake
Beckebanze et al. Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-1225-2022

Soil fauna drives vertical redistribution of soil organic carbon in a long-term irrigated dry pine forest
Guidi et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16122

CO2-stimulation of savanna tree seedling growth depends on interactions with local drivers
Raubenheimer & Ripley Brad S. Ripley Journal of Ecology
10.1111/1365-2745.13863

(provisional link) Trends in household energy-related GHG emissions during COVID-19 in four Chilean cities

Grassland contribution to soil organic carbon stock under climate change scenarios in Basque Country (Spain)
Doblas-Rodrigo et al. Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01877-4

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions
Schwinger et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-28573-5

Decarbonization

Exploring the mitigation potential for carbon dioxide emissions in Indonesia’s manufacturing industry: an analysis of firm characteristics
Rosita et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2042394

Energy-saving potential and cost-effectiveness of active energy-efficiency measures for residential building in Warm-humid climate
Abdul Mujeebu & Bano Energy for Sustainable Development
10.1016/j.esd.2022.01.011

Norwegian ship-owners' adoption of alternative fuels
Mäkitie et al. Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112869

Solar energy as an early just transition opportunity for coal-bearing states in India
Malik & Bertram Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5194

The role of pickup truck electrification in the decarbonization of light-duty vehicles
Woody et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5142

Black carbon

Rapid decline in atmospheric organic carbon deposition in North China between 2016 and 2020
Cao et al. Atmospheric Environment
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119030

Aerosols

Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA)
Wang et al.
Open Access 10.2172/1253912

Elucidating the present-day chemical composition, seasonality and source regions of climate-relevant aerosols across the Arctic land surface
Moschos et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac444b

Equal abundance of summertime natural and wintertime anthropogenic Arctic organic aerosols
Moschos et al. Nature Geoscience
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-021-00891-1

Climate change communications & cognition

Does climate advocacy matter? The importance of competing interest groups for national climate policies
Böhler et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2022.2036089

Extreme hydroclimatic events in rural communities of the Brazilian Amazon: local perceptions of change, impacts, and adaptation
Almudi & Sinclair Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-021-01857-0

What role do climate considerations play in consumption of red meat in Norway?
Vatn et al. Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102490

Widespread use of National Academies consensus reports by the American public
Hicks et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2107760119

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Soil moisture and expectations regarding future climate: evidence from panel data
Stahlmann-Brown & Walsh Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03317-y

Push-pull technology improves carbon stocks in rainfed smallholder agriculture in Western Kenya
Ndayisaba et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2035823

Contribution of cropland expansion to regional carbon stocks in an arid area of China: a case study in Xinjiang
Wang et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2043446

Mapping the impact of recent climate change on viticultural potential in Romania
Patriche & Irimia Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-03984-y

Weather, climate, and agriculture: Historical contributions and perspectives from agricultural meteorology
Parolini WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.766

Perception and adaptation strategies of dairy farmers towards climate variability and change in West Africa
Montcho et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03311-4

The uncertainty of climate change impacts on China’s agricultural economy based on an integrated assessment approach
Cui et al. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Open Access 10.1007/s11027-022-09999-0

The adaptation mechanism based on an integrated vulnerability assessment of potato production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China
Huang et al. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-022-10000-1

Determinant factors energy efficiency and emission of pollutants Co2 & So2 in Iran's agricultural sector
Eskandari et al. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
10.1007/s13762-021-03583-w

Toward a framework for selecting indicators of measuring sustainability and circular economy in the agri-food sector: a systematic literature review
Silvestri et al. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
10.1007/s11367-022-02032-1

Hydrology & climate change

A sensitivity study of rising compound coastal inundation over large flood plains in a changing climate
Peter Sheng et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-07010-z

Selecting the Optimal Fine-Scale Historical Climate Data for Assessing Current and Future Hydrological Conditions
Journal of Hydrometeorology
10.1175/jhm-d-21-0045.1

How extreme could the near term evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall be?
Jain & Scaife Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4655

Hydrological impacts of climate and land-use change in Western Ghats, India
Chandu et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-022-01879-2

Understanding Future Increases in Precipitation Extremes in Global Land Monsoon Regions
Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0409.1

Reduction of the uncertainties in the hydrological projections in Korean river basins using dynamically downscaled climate projections
Qiu et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06201-8

Deforestation triggering irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle
Xu et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4c1d

Linkages between GRACE water storage, hydrologic extremes, and climate teleconnections in major African aquifer
Scanlon et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3bfc

Climate change economics

If money talks, what is the banking industry saying about climate change?
Elliott & Löfgren Climate Policy
Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2036090

A critical review of disproportionality in loss and damage from climate change
Dorkenoo et al. WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.770

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Rooftop solar incentives remain effective for low- and moderate-income adoption
O'Shaughnessy Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112881

Improved sustainability assessment of the G20’s supply chains of materials, fuels, and food
Cabernard et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac52c7

Characterizing local rooftop solar adoption inequity in the US
Darghouth et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4fdc

System-level consequences of synergies and trade-offs between SDGs: quantitative analysis of interlinkage networks at country level
Dawes et al. Sustainability Science
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01109-y

How policy has shaped the emerging solar photovoltaic installation industry
O'Shaughnessy Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112860

Cross-border concentrated solar power projects - opportunity or dead end? A study into actor views in Europe
Burghard et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112833

Pricing carbon effectively: a pathway for higher climate change ambition
Dominioni Climate Policy
Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2042177

Strategic drivers for sustainable implementation of carbon trading in India
Bansal et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-022-02205-w

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Effective climate change adaptation means supporting community autonomy
Journal of Development and Social Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

An inclusive future: disabled populations in the context of climate and environmental change
Kosanic et al. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101159

Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation
Leach et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10508424.1

Climate change-related risks and adaptation potential in Central and South America during the 21st century
Hagen et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5271

Urban climate resilience through hybrid infrastructure
Andersson et al. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101158

Small Island Developing States in a post-pandemic world: Challenges and opportunities for climate action
Foley et al. WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.769

Consistency of UK climate risk approaches with new ISO guidelines
Smith et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100422

Policy coherence for national climate change adaptation and invasive species management in four countries
Casey CABI Agriculture and Bioscience
Open Access pdf 10.1186/s43170-022-00077-8

Climate Change and Recreation in the Western United States: Effects and Opportunities for Adaptation
Miller et al. Journal of Forestry
Open Access pdf 10.1093/jofore/fvab072

Stakeholder visions for trajectories of adaptation to climate change in the Drôme catchment (French Alps)
Bergeret & Lavorel Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-022-01876-5

Operationalizing and empirically identifying populations trapped in place by climate and environmental stressors in Mexico
DeWaard et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-022-01882-7

Climate change impacts on human health

(provisional link) Concentrated and Intensifying Humid Heat Extremes in the IPCC AR6 Regions

Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)
Kennedy-Asser et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac53bb

Projecting the proliferation risk of Oncomelania hupensis in China driven by four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): a multi-scenario comparison and integrated modeling study
Gong et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.02.004

Other

The evolution of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1980
Jackson et al. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-022-00263-2

Views from nowhere, somewhere and everywhere else: The tragedy of the horizon in the early Anthropocene
Frame & Cradock-Henry The Anthropocene Review
Open Access pdf 10.1177/20530196211059199

Upwelling of Atlantic Water in Barrow Canyon, Chukchi Sea
Li et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
10.1029/2021jc017839

Rapid Change in Surface-Based Temperature Inversions across the World during the Last Three Decades
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
10.1175/jamc-d-21-0093.1

Mainstreaming sustainable innovation: unlocking the potential of nature-based solutions for climate change and biodiversity
Xie et al. Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2022.02.017

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Mainstreaming climate change sociology
Lockie Environmental Sociology
Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2022.2043529

Failures to disagree are essential for environmental science to effectively influence policy development
Norberg et al. Ecology Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.13984

On viability: Climate change and the science of possible futures
Paprocki Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102487

Glass half full or glass half empty?: the 2021 Glasgow Climate Conference
Depledge et al. Climate Policy
Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2038482

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Decarbonization During Predevelopment of Modular Building Solutions (pdf), Klammer et al., National Renewable Energy Lab

Affordable, zero carbon emissions is an important climate-performance target for the future of multifamily housing, and the multifamily construction industry holds an essential position in achieving this goal in the United States. Building construction and operation accounts for 37% of global energy-related carbon emissions. Meanwhile, an additional 3.8 million housing units are needed to address the shortage in the U.S. There has been limited investigation into the trade-offs between site-built and industrialized construction buildings from the perspective of reducing the incremental cost of net zero energy (NZE) strategies and reducing GHG emissions resulting from upfront and operational emissions that are “embodied” in the building’s life. The authors present actionable pathways for the building industry to leverage advanced building construction, reduce NZE incremental costs, and achieve significant GHG emissions reduction by 2030.

America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition (pdf), Tsisilile Igogo et al., U.S. Department of Energy

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published the report, the first comprehensive U.S. government plan to build an Energy Sector Industrial Base. The strategy examines technologies and crosscutting topics for analysis in response to Executive Order 14017 on America’s Supply Chains and is part of a whole of government approach to chart a course for revitalizing the U.S. economy and domestic manufacturing by securing the country’s most critical supply chains. The authors lay out the myriad challenges and opportunities facing the energy supply chain.

Seven Deep Dive AssessmentsDepartment of Energy

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy released seven deep-dive assessments of clean energy manufacturing supply chains, reviewing the obstacles to a reliable supply of key materials and components and opportunities for improvement. Each of the seven assessments focuses on a different technology or resource that will help the Biden Administration achieve its goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The seven assessments are electrolytic hydrogen, hydropower, platinum group metal catalysts, rare-earth magnets, semiconductors, solar energy, and wind energy.

CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION. EPA Should Ensure Regulated Facilities Consider Risks from Climate Change.U.S. Government Accountability Office

The Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Management Plan (RMP) Rule requires certain facilities that make, use, handle, or store hazardous substances (chemicals) to develop and implement a risk management program to detect and prevent or minimize the consequences of an accidental release. These facilities, known as RMP facilities, include chemical manufacturers and water treatment plants. Federal data on flooding, storm surge, wildfire, and sea level rise—natural hazards that may be exacerbated by climate change—indicate that over 3,200 of the 10,420 facilities that were analyzed, or about 31 percent, are in areas with these natural hazards. RMP facilities face several challenges, including insufficient information and direction, in managing risks from natural hazards and climate change, according to some EPA officials and stakeholders. By issuing regulations, guidance, or both to clarify requirements and provide direction on how to incorporate these risks into risk management programs, EPA can better ensure that facilities are managing risks from all relevant hazards. When developing any such regulation, EPA should, pursuant to relevant executive orders, conduct a cost-benefit analysis.

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Sequestration Guidance, Federal Register, Council on Environmental Quality

The CEQ CCUS Report [2] recognized that to reach the President's ambitious climate goal of net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050, the United States will likely have to capture, transport, and permanently sequester significant quantities of carbon dioxide. There is growing scientific consensus Start Printed Page 8809 that, while the first priority for addressing climate change must be to avoid emissions, CCUS technologies and permanent sequestration are likely needed to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. CCUS deployment can and should reduce emissions of other kinds of pollution in addition to carbon pollution, protect communities from increases in cumulative pollution, and maintain and create good, union-friendly jobs across the country.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

What does "(provisional link)" mean?

When the input list for New Research is processed, some articles do not produce a result from the journal databases we employ. Usually this is because the publisher has not yet supplied information to doi.org for the given article. In these cases and in order to still include timely listing of articles, we employ an alternate search tactic. While this method is usually correct, sometimes the link shown will lead to an incorrect destination (available time does not always permit manual checking of these). We invite readers to submit corrections in comments below.

Each edition of New Research is reprocessed some two weeks after intitial publication to catch stragglers into the DOI ecosystem. Many "provisional links" will end up being corrected as part of this process. 

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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Comments

Comments 1 to 3:

  1. Hard science will never be accepted by anyone relying on the myths of the  Religion directing their lives. "Hope springs eternal from the human breast". The acceptance of the promise of an afterlife in a "heaven" cancels any hard science that might challenge a person to account for the possibility that human conduct, or our omissions to act on evidence, might ought to be the course of action necessary to save the planet for our future and the future of our progeny. We know that all living organisms, except humans, simply adapt to the environment in which they find themselves...and survive or become extinct if that environment becomes unstable for the lifeform in question.  Humans either hope for the best within their particular religious dogma, or take steps to manipulate the environment, refusing to adapt thereto. Some Religions are "worse" than others. Some people believe that the Lord would never harm his followers. That disposition cancels the efficacy and usefulness of hard science as a tool of adaptation.

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    Moderator Response:

    [BL] I suggest that you read the Comments Policy. In particular, the following sections apply to the deleted parts of this comment. Since you will know what has been deleted, you should have no problem understanding why.

    • No ad hominem attacks. Personally attacking other users gets us no closer to understanding the science. For example, comments containing the words 'religion' and 'conspiracy' tend to get moderated. Comments using labels like 'alarmist' and 'denier' as derogatory terms are usually skating on thin ice.
    • No politics. Rants about politics, religion, faith, ideology or one world governments will be deleted. Occasional blogposts on Skeptical Science touch on issues intimately related to politics.  For those posts this rule may be relaxed, but only if explicitly stated at the end of the blogpost.
  2. Yes, a difficult area. I'm unsure why you label my comment a "rant", my not having felt at all "ranty" when I wrote it. It has always seemed to me that the scientific method should stop taking a back seat to religion and politics. Just a few weeks ago, SkepSci carried an article by "scientists" lamenting the lack of attention of "policymakers" to our rather well developed evidence that if they don't follow the science, why should the scientists keep bothering to produce it?

    I wasn't singling out any particular body of belief bereft of science grade evidence. The statements of Richard Dawkins comes to mind: "you just can't say anything bad about religion...you just can't...His point being: "why not?" We say things bad about Corona virus, pine beetles and the proliferation of plastic nanoparticles in the oceans. We should be able to criticize the entire human race for its "shortcomings", whatever they be. Our human nature apparently disposes us to be ignorant of the implications of our propensity to ignore the evidence provided by the scientific method: Religion's status is the principal reason. It seems always to sit at the debate table with the scientists.

    There is a quaint aphorism that speaks to this problem:  "Those that don't study history, are doomed to repeat it...yet, those who do study history are doomed to stand by, helplessly, while everyone else repeats it."

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    Moderator Response:

    [BL} let's try again. Another section of the Comments Policy:

    • All comments must be on topic. Comments are on topic if they draw attention to possible errors of fact or interpretation in the main article, of if they discuss the immediate implications of the facts discussed in the main article. However, general discussions of Global Warming not explicitly related to the details of the main article are always off topic. Moderation complaints are always off topic and will be deleted

    To put is simply. tone down the rhetoric. I"ts not helping you.

     

  3. Recently someone who was questioning climate science claimed that they used to think climate change was a big problem but they learned that the problem was much smaller than scientists had predicted.  They said both sides exaggerate.

    About a week ago the IPCC released a new report about the consequences of climate change.  This Guardian article documents that the changes caused by current climate change are much worse than scientists predicted.  I have noticed several times in the past that posters come to SkS and say they used to think cimate change was bad but they learned that it was not as bad as scientists predicted.  Perhaps that line needs to be added as an argument to the list of skeptics arguments.

    My understanding of the situation is that the changes in temperature are very close to the predictions of climate science.  The changes in weather extremes, wildfire, floods droughts and other weather related disasters have been much worse than scientists predicted.

    I am currently 63.  I have a strong recollection from 2014 when AR5 was released by the IPCC and I read the projected problems.  I wondered if those problems would be obvious to everyone during my lifetime (I expect to live to be about 85).  Many of the problems projected in 2014 are being realized now.  Examples include the wildfires worldwide, massive droughts like the one in the American West, floods like those last week in Australia, worldwide coral bleaching, sunny day flooding from sea level rise.   

    Those claiming that scientists exaggerated the problem are simply repeating the lies of the fossil fuel lobby.

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