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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #13 2023

Posted on 29 March 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

"Despite the potential for positive methane–climate feedbacks from global wetlands, most Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that informed the last Assessment Report of the IPCC do not directly incorporate this process." Publishing in Nature Climate Change, Zheng et al. unpack the implications of this oversight in Recent intensification of wetland methane feedback. The authors find that compared to climate models CH4 emissions are rising notably faster than projected, on the order of perhaps 25%. This of course is not good news. The article is consistent with a steady drumbeat of large and small ugly surprises appearing in the "GHG sources & sinks, flux.." section here each week. 

Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C presents some staggeringly large numbers, large enough to easily illustrate how urgent mitigation isn't very expensive compared to more dire altenatives. And, it seems as though privilege may have limits: "In absolute terms and across all climate change and socio-economic scenarios, annual sea flood damage costs assuming no additional adaptation in 2100 are projected to be highest for the upper middle income group (equating to 9.1% of GDP) and lowest for the low income group (equating to 1.2% of GDP). Costs are more dependent on socio-economic development than the magnitude of SLR." Authors Sally Brown et al. find that preparing to cope with the mess we've created won't be cheap, either: "For the five countries studied, the greatest annual sea flood damage costs assuming no additional adaptation are projected for China ranging from $8903bn at < 1.5 °C ($6865bn to $9904bn) to $10,952bn at 4.0 °C ($9736bn to $12,301bn). They are lowest in Ghana, ranging from $74.4bn at < 1.5 °C ($61.4bn to $87.8bn) to $101.4bn at 4.0 °C ($85.5bn to $118.2bn)."

How exactly Greenland will melt depends on which part of the island we're considering. In the northeast, the authors of Increasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers see powerful effects of the two influences named in the title growing in frequency, with "5–10% of total northeast Greenland melt in several recent summers occurring during the ~1% of times with strong AR and foehn conditions. Mattingly et al. project these effects to grow in correlation with increasing atmospheric moisture content, which stands to reason given their observations of the past two decades of increasing foehn and AR events— as we'd expect.   

Extreme low flow of the Rhine River is a very recent memory, a repeated experience over the past few years.  Melting Alpine Water Towers Aggravate Downstream Low Flows: A Stress-Test Storyline Approach finds that Such drought situations will be further aggravated in the future, given that the authors find a shifting baseline of flow: "Summer (July–September) streamflow may decline by 5%–25% far downstream and 30%–70% upstream and the duration of extreme low flow situations may double compared to the selected past drought events. These results are relevant for the Rhine as a major European river but stand exemplary for many other river basins and highlight the importance of cryospheric changes for downstream low flow situations in a changing climate." The Rhine is a key artery for trade in Europe; such changes will have a profound effect on the continent's transport systems. 

The past couple of decades have seen rice more rewarding agricultural production in some areas of the world thanks to burgeoning CO2. Hooray, right? "It depends," actually. The authors of  Rice yield benefits from historical climate warming to be negated by extreme heat in Northeast China describe how increasing temperatures end increases in productivity, leading them to conclude that climate mitigation is necessary  now, with adaptation of rice breeds also necessary to maintain yield as our planet warms. 

This week's glancing reminder of the intricacy of decarbonization details includes a paper taking a close look at some hard cases in relatively challenging locales: cement and metal manufacturing in countries without copious access to finances or "spare" capacity to cope with wholesale changes in material and energy supplies? Is it hopeless? Not at all, but a lot of attention must be paid.  Towards net-zero emissions concrete and steel in India, Brazil and South Africa by Chris Bataille et al. paints the picture of how this challenge might be surmounted via Climate Policy

From our government/NGO section, Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023 presents some eye-popping statistics: "By the end of 2022, renewables accounted for 40% of global installed power capacity" with 2022 seeing the addition of nearly 295GW of renewable energy to our permanent power portfolio— the equivalent of about 150 decently sized nuclear fission plants added in a single year. The number-heavy report is authored by the International Renewable Energy Agency

Saddest not-open-access: The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise

174 articles in 60 journals by 981 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A Physical Explanation for Ocean Air–Water Warming Differences under CO2-Forced Warming, Richardson, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0215.1

Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater, Li et al., Nature, 10.1038/s41586-023-05762-w

Connecting Hemispheric Asymmetries of Planetary Albedo and Surface Temperature, Rugenstein & Hakuba, Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl101802

Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming, Zhang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37309-y

Nobel Lecture: Physical modeling of Earth’s climate, Manabe, Reviews of Modern Physics, 10.1103/revmodphys.95.010501

Observations of climate change, effects

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe, Faranda et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Enhanced intensity of the interannual variability of February surface air temperature over mid- and high-latitude Asia since the late-1990s, Xu & Fan, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036873

Human Contribution to the Risk of 2021 Northwestern Pacific Concurrent Marine and Terrestrial Summer Heat, Tang et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0238.1

Increasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers, Mattingly et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37434-8

Quantitative analysis of multiple forest disturbances and their compound influences on tree growth in the western U.S., Li et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2023.126084

Recent trends in transport of surface carbonaceous aerosols to the upper-troposphere-lower-stratosphere linked to expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone, Lau & Kim, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Open Access 10.1029/2022jd036460

Satellites reveal hotspots of global river extent change, Wu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37061-3

Spatio-temporal changes in the speed of canopy development and senescence in temperate China, Piao et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16408

The anomalously cold January 2017 in the south-eastern Europe in a warming climate, Demirta?, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7574

Trend and variability in the long-term relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Pandey et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7675

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Introducing long-term trends into subseasonal temperature forecasts through trend-aware postprocessing, Shao et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7515

One-kilometre monthly air temperature and precipitation product over the Mongolian Plateau for 1950–2020, Xin et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8063

Predictability of fossil fuel CO2 from air quality emissions, Miyazaki & Bowman Bowman, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37264-8

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

China’s pathways of CO2 capture, utilization and storage under carbon neutrality vision 2060, Liu et al., Carbon Management, Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2022.2117648

Climate change-induced urban heat Island trend projection and land surface temperature: A case study of Thailand's Bangkok metropolitan, Thanvisitthapon et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101484

Future changes of dry-wet climate regions and its contributing climatic factors in mainland China based on CMIP6 models, Kou et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8046

Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, Brierley et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-19-681-2023

Influence of anthropogenic and natural forcings on future changes in precipitation projected by the CMIP6–DAMIP models, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8064

Projected Atlantic overturning slow-down is to be compensated by a strengthened South Atlantic subtropical gyre, Marcello et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00750-4

Response of damaging Philippines tropical cyclones to a warming climate using the pseudo global warming approach, Delfino et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06742-6

Robust Changes in North America's Hydroclimate Variability and Predictability, Kumar et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003239

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe, Deser & Phillips, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/npg-30-63-2023

Added value of a regional coupled model: the case study for marine heatwaves in the Caribbean, Pontoppidan et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06758-y

Exploiting close zonal-sampling of HIRDLS profiles near turnaround latitude to investigate missing drag in chemistry-climate models near 60°S, Holt et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037398

How well do high-resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulate tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal?, Akhter et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06745-3

Introducing CRYOWRF v1.0: multiscale atmospheric flow simulations with advanced snow cover modelling, Sharma et al., Geoscientific Model Development, Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-16-719-2023

Partitioning the Uncertainties in Compound Hot and Dry Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Runoff Extremes Projections in CMIP6, Jha et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003315

Techniques to preprocess the climate projections—a review, Panjwani & Kumar, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-023-04431-2

The global monsoon system representation in BAM-v1.2 and HadGEM3 climate simulations, Cavalcanti et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7694

Unlocking the Power of Machine Learning for Earth System Modeling: A Game-Changing Breakthrough, Chen, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16696

Cryosphere & climate change

Holocene deglaciation and glacier readvances on the Fildes Peninsula and King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), South Shetland Islands, NW Antarctic Peninsula, Heredia Barión et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.31223/x59s7s

Increasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers, Mattingly et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37434-8

Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions, Höning et al., [journal not provided], 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16930

Reply to Yang et al.: Global warming and black carbon simultaneously lead to glacier mass decline over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, Jouberton et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2301467120

Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination, Langer et al., Nature Communications, Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-37276-4

Sea level & climate change

Interacting Effects of Watershed and Coastal Processes on the Evolution of Compound Flooding During Hurricane Irene, Deb et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef002947

Risk of isolation increases the urgency and spatial extent of climate change adaptation, , Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01647-y

The dynamic mechanism of sea level variations in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, Liu et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06724-8

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A new view on abrupt climate changes and the bipolar seesaw based on paleotemperatures from Iberian Margin sediments, Davtian & Bard, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2209558120

Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs, Koutsodendris et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37388-x

Evolution of silicate weathering in South China since 30?Ma: Controlling factors and global implications, Jin et al., Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104095

Increased amplitude of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation towards recent: Evidence from tree-ring-based reconstruction since 1596, Dong et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7596

Marine ecosystem shifts with deglacial sea-ice loss inferred from ancient DNA shotgun sequencing, Zimmermann et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-36845-x

Solar forcing for nutricline depth variability inferred by coccoliths in the pre-industrial northwestern Mediterranean, Incarbona, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.4284432

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Advances in spring leaf phenology are mainly triggered by elevated temperature along the rural-urban gradient in Beijing, China, Su et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-023-02454-y

Climate change increases carbon allocation to leaves in early leaf green-up, Meng et al., Ecology Letters, 10.1111/ele.14205

Climate-driven zooplankton shifts cause large-scale declines in food quality for fish, Heneghan et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01630-7

Decoupled responses of biodiversity facets driven from anuran vulnerability to climate and land-use changes, Ceron et al., Ecology Letters, Open Access 10.1111/ele.14207

Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate, Ozgul et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2214244120

Drought constrains acorn production and tree growth in the Mediterranean holm oak and triggers weak legacy effects, Garcia-Barreda et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109435

Forest vegetation response to anthropogenic pressures: a case study from Askot Wildlife Sanctuary, Western Himalaya, Bisht et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-03130-2

Habitat–trait interactions that control response to climate change: North American ground beetles (Carabidae), Qiu et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10.1111/geb.13670

High landscape-scale forest cover favours cold-adapted plant communities in agriculture–forest mosaics, Borderieux et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10.1111/geb.13676

Increasing the number of stressors reduces soil ecosystem services worldwide, Rillig et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01627-2

Lake temperature and nutrient levels interact to reorganize ecological networks, , Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01623-6

Lakes as model systems for understanding global change, Loewen, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01624-5

Less fuel for the next fire? Short-interval fire delays forest recovery and interacting drivers amplify effects, Braziunas et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.4042

Links across ecological scales: Plant biomass responses to elevated CO2, Maschler et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16351

Nitrification, denitrification, and related functional genes under elevated CO2: a meta-analysis in terrestrial ecosystems, Gineyts & Niboyet, Global Change Biology, Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16568

Phytoplankton community changes in a coastal upwelling system during the last century, Peng et al., Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104101

Precipitation buffers temperature-driven local extinctions of moths at warm range margins, Hordley et al., Ecology Letters, 10.1111/ele.14195

Shallow-reef species around Australia are declining with warming seas, , Nature, 10.1038/d41586-023-00453-y

Spatial insurance against a heatwave differs between trophic levels in experimental aquatic communities, Vad et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16692

Toxic temperatures: Bee behaviours exhibit divergent pesticide toxicity relationships with warming, Kenna et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16671

Weakening greenhouse gas sink of pristine wetlands under warming, Bao et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01637-0

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A high-resolution satellite-based map of global methane emissions reveals missing wetland, fossil fuel, and monsoon sources, Yu et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-3325-2023

Agriculture accentuates interannual variability in water fluxes but not carbon fluxes, relative to native prairie, in the U.S. Corn Belt, Schreiner-McGraw et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109420

Anthropogenic activities dominated tropical forest carbon balance in two contrary ways over the Greater Mekong Subregion in the 21st century, Chen et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16688

Atmospheric N deposition significantly enhanced soil N2O emission from eastern China forests, Cen et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2021gb007289

Basin-scale estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the Mara River, Kenya: Importance of discharge, stream size, and land use/land cover, Mwanake et al., Limnology and Oceanography, Open Access pdf 10.1002/lno.12166

Biogenic factors explain soil carbon in paired urban and natural ecosystems worldwide, Delgado-Baquerizo et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01646-z

Carbon–biodiversity relationships in a highly diverse subtropical forest, Schuldt et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16697

Comparative analysis of fuel consumption and CO2 emission estimation based on ships activity and reported fuel consumption: the case of short sea shipping in Crete, Doundoulakis & Papaefthimiou, Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2174

Ecosystem metabolism is the dominant source of carbon dioxide in three young boreal cascade-reservoirs (La Romaine complex, Québec), Barbosa et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007253

Electron Accepting Capacities of a Wide Variety of Peat Materials from Around the Globe Similarly Explain CO2 and CH4 Formation, Guth et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Open Access 10.1029/2022gb007459

Global net biome CO2 exchange predicted comparably well using parameter–environment relationships and plant functional types, Famiglietti et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16574

Grazing weakens N-addition effects on soil greenhouse gas emissions in a semi-arid grassland, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109423

Impacts of climate change on pine wilt disease outbreaks and associated carbon stock losses, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109426

Intercomparison of methods to estimate gross primary production based on CO2 and COS flux measurements, Kohonen et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-4067-2022

Leveraging Uncertainty in Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Stocks and Fluxes, Trugman & Quetin, Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003322

Litter accumulation and fire risks show direct and indirect climate-dependence at continental scale, Adams & Neumann, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37166-9

Meridional propagation of carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rate and flux anomalies from the tropics due to ENSO, Das et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100105

Meta-analysis shows forest soil CO2 effluxes are dependent on the disturbance regime and biome type, Akande et al., Ecology Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14201

Microbial autotrophy explains large-scale soil CO2 fixation, Liao et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16452

Pool dynamics of time-dependent compartmental systems with application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, Chappelle et al., Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Open Access 10.1098/rsif.2022.0843

Ratio of in situ CO2 to CH4 production and its environmental controls in polygonal tundra soils of Samoylov Island, Northeastern Siberia, de Aro Galera et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006956

Recent intensification of wetland methane feedback, Zhang et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01629-0

Reductions in California's Urban Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Yañez et al., AGU Advances, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022av000732

Response of macrophyte litter decomposition in global blue carbon ecosystems to climate change, Ouyang et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16693

Retrieving CH4-emission rates from coal mine ventilation shafts using UAV-based AirCore observations and the genetic algorithm–interior point penalty function (GA-IPPF) model, Shi et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-13881-2022

Rooting vegetation models in realism, Nair, Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16699

Soil CO2 controls short-term variation but climate regulates long-term mean of riverine inorganic carbon, Stewart et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007351

Soil moisture–atmosphere feedback dominates land N2O nitrification emissions and denitrification reduction, Liao et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16365

Soil organic matter diagenetic state informs boreal forest ecosystem feedbacks to climate change, Myers-Pigg et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-489-2023

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Wei-Ping et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Spectral indices of vegetation condition and soil water content reflect controls on CH4 and CO2 exchange in Sphagnum-dominated northern peatlands, Tucker et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2021jg006486

The dispersal of fluvially discharged and marine, shelf-produced particulate organic matter in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Yedema et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-181

Urbanization in developing countries overrides catchment productivity in fueling inland water CO2 emissions, Wang et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16475

Warming and drought weaken the carbon sink capacity of an endangered paleoendemic temperate rainforest in South America, Perez?Quezada et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007258

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Boosting membrane carbon capture via multifaceted polyphenol-mediated soldering, Zhu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37479-9

Clipping increases ecosystem carbon use efficiency by decreasing the dominance of grasses, Yan et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109421

CO2–Brine–Rock interaction and sequestration capacity in carbonate reservoirs of the Tahe Oilfield, Xinjiang, China, Tan et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2178

Controlled preparation of CaO adsorbents by microsyringe titration technology for CO2 capture, Wu et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2168

Multi-layered systems for permanent geologic storage of CO2 at the gigatonne scale, Kivi et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl100443

Prospects of low-temperature solid sorbents in industrial CO? capture. A focus on biomass residues as precursor material, Querejeta et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2210

Sustainability assessment of CCS technologies by combining multi-criteria decision making with life cycle assessment, Li et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10.1007/s11367-023-02155-z

Decarbonization

A method for using the residual energy in waste Li-ion batteries by regulating potential with the aid of overvoltage response, Sun et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2213130120

Anion exchange membrane water electrolysis for sustainable large-scale hydrogen production, Lee et al., Carbon Neutralization, Open Access pdf 10.1002/cnl2.9

Applying an iterative prospective LCA approach to emerging wood-based technologies: three German case studies, Sander-Titgemeyer et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02139-z

Biohybrid CO2 electrolysis for the direct synthesis of polyesters from CO2, Lim et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2221438120

Boosting CO2 photoreduction by π–π-induced preassembly between a Cu(I) sensitizer and a pyrene-appended Co(II) catalyst, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2221219120

Building integration and cooling, Tregnago, Nature Energy, Open Access 10.1038/s41560-023-01237-4

Cementing CO2 into C-S-H: A step toward concrete carbon neutrality, Stefaniuk et al., PNAS Nexus, Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad052

Fast-Charging Solid-State Lithium Metal Batteries: A Review, Zhang et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202100203

Protecting avian wildlife for wind farm siting: The Screening Tool Proof of Concept, Salkanovi?, Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.03.002

Reduced bimolecular charge recombination in efficient organic solar cells comprising non-fullerene acceptors, Wu et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-31929-6

The effect of economic complexity and energy security on measures of energy efficiency: Evidence from panel quantile analysis, Payne et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113547

The role of hydrogen for deep decarbonization of energy systems: A Chilean case study, Ferrada et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113536

Towards net-zero emissions concrete and steel in India, Brazil and South Africa, Bataille et al., Climate Policy, Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2023.2187750

Black carbon

Reply to Yang et al.: Global warming and black carbon simultaneously lead to glacier mass decline over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, Jouberton et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2301467120

Aerosols Climate change communications & cognition

COP26 and the dynamics of anti-fossil fuel norms, van Asselt & Green, WIREs Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.816

Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety, Zacher & Rudolph, Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03518-z

What Do Extreme Weather Events Say About Climate Change? Comparing Politicization and Climate Policy in U.S. Wildfire and Hurricane News Coverage, Molder & Calice, Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2023.2190495

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields, Abramoff et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003190

Deforestation for agriculture leads to soil warming and enhanced litter decomposition in subarctic soils, Peplau et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-1063-2023

Edible fungi crops through mycoforestry, potential for carbon negative food production and mitigation of food and forestry conflicts, Thomas & Jump, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2220079120

Forgotten food crops in sub-Saharan Africa for healthy diets in a changing climate, van Zonneveld et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2205794120

Future climate change for major agricultural zones in China as projected by CORDEX-EA-II, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles, Yu et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106731

Global cropland exposure to extreme compound drought heatwave events under future climate change, Wang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100559

Grazing weakens N-addition effects on soil greenhouse gas emissions in a semi-arid grassland, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109423

Institutional analysis of actors involved in the governance of innovative contracts for agri-environmental and climate schemes, Sattler et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102668

Mixed farming systems: potentials and barriers for climate change adaptation in food systems, Baker et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101270

Near-term climate change impacts on food crops productivity in East Africa, Choi & Eltahir, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04408-1

Rice yield benefits from historical climate warming to be negated by extreme heat in Northeast China, Dong et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, Open Access 10.1007/s00484-023-02458-8

The extreme 2016 wheat yield failure in France, Nóia Júnior et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16662

The sustainability assessment of Indigenous and local knowledge-based climate adaptation responses in agricultural and aquatic food systems, Galappaththi & Schlingmann, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101276

Vulnerability of local farmers’ livelihood to climate variability across different agro ecology zone in Suha watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, Alemayehu et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2023.2178253

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes and variability in rainfall onset, cessation, and length of rainy season in the IGAD region of Eastern Africa, Omay et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04433-0

Melting Alpine Water Towers Aggravate Downstream Low Flows: A Stress-Test Storyline Approach, van Tiel et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003408

Projected Climate-Driven Changes of Water Table Depth in the World's Major Groundwater Basins, Costantini et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003068

Robust Changes in North America's Hydroclimate Variability and Predictability, Kumar et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003239

Climate change economics

Carbon border adjustment mechanism: a systematic literature review of the latest developments, Zhong & Pei, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2023.2190074

Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C, Brown et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03130-z

New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature, van der Wijst et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01636-1

The effect of economic complexity and energy security on measures of energy efficiency: Evidence from panel quantile analysis, Payne et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113547

The rebound effect of decarbonization in China’s power sector under the carbon trading scheme, Li et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113543

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Emission reduction mode of China's provincial transportation sector: Based on “Energy+” carbon efficiency evaluation, Zhang et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113556

Exploring long-term mitigation pathways for a net zero Tajikistan, Akkermans et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-023-10053-w

Field interventions for climate change mitigation behaviors: A second-order meta-analysis, Bergquist et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2214851120

Government instruments for community renewable energy in northern and Indigenous communities, Leonhardt et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113560

Solar energy brightens lives and strengthens the resilience of geographically challenged communities in Bangladesh, Hossain et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2023.03.016

Substitution benefits of British Columbia’s mitigation strategies in the bioeconomy, Xie et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10055-8

Targeting 1.5 degrees with the global carbon footprint of the Australian Capital Territory, Goodwin et al., Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.03.006

The effects of structural and technical change on China’s industrial CO2 emissions pathways under uncertainty, Zhou et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2147130

‘Luctor et emergo’, how a community energy initiative survived the changing policy and technology landscape of the Dutch energy system?, Maqbool et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113528

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A Novel HydroEconomic - Econometric Approach for Integrated Transboundary Water Management Under Uncertainty, Englezos et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00744-4

An approach to measure resilience of communities to climate change: a case study in Calabria (Southern Italy), Antronico et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10056-7

Climate change and coastal megacities: Adapting through mobility, Ekoh et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102666

Facing climate change and improving emergency responses in Southern America by analysing urban cyclonic wind events, Pérez-Arévalo et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101489

Potential impact of global warming on electricity demand in Niger, BONKANEY et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1605275/v1

Risk of isolation increases the urgency and spatial extent of climate change adaptation, , Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01647-y

The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise, Hermans et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5

Climate change impacts on human health

Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity, Orlov et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002909

Climate change & geopolitics

The Humanitarian–Development–Peace Nexus in practice: building climate and conflict sensitivity into humanitarian projects, Joireman & Haddad, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101272

Other

A mediation analysis of the linkages between climate variability, water insecurity, and interpersonal violence, Ross et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2023.2186746

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’, Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Large-Scale Drivers of Persistent Extreme Weather During Early Summer 2021 in Europe, Tuel et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl099624

No evidence of worsening Arctic springtime ozone losses over the 21st century, Polvani et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37134-3

Reply to: No evidence of worsening Arctic springtime ozone losses over the 21st century, von der Gathen et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37135-2

Spiral-scaling climate action: lessons from and for the academic flying less movement, Katz-Rosene & Pasek, Environmental Politics, Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2023.2193068

The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise, Hermans et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Enhancing the Value of Weather and Climate Services in Society: Identified Gaps and Needs as Outcomes of the First WMO WWRP/SERA Weather and Society Conference, Göber et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0199.1

Increased Utilization of Storm Surge Barriers: A Research Agenda on Estuary Impacts, Orton et al., Earth's Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef002991

Political leadership, climate policy, and renewable energy, van den Bergh & Savin, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2301291120

The co-production of knowledge for climate science, Miner et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01633-4

Trophic rewilding can expand natural climate solutions, Schmitz et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01631-6

Urgency of understanding and responding to hydroclimatic impacts in Colombia, Quesada & Avila-Diaz, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000188


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023, Lebedys et al, International Renewable Energy Agency

Highlighting the continued progress toward the energy transition in the global power generation mix, the authors provide the latest renewable capacity statistics to reaffirm that renewables are the de-facto energy choice for new power generation, despite the effects of recent global crises and geopolitical shocks on the energy sector. By the end of 2022, renewables accounted for 40% of global installed power capacity. Yet, as the world draws closer to a world in which renewable energy accounts for half of total capacity, many energy planning questions must be addressed to establish renewables as the most significant source of electricity generation - including in the context of grid flexibility and adaptation to variable renewable power. 2022 saw the largest increase in renewable energy capacity to date – the world added almost 295 gigawatts (GW) of renewables, increasing the stock of renewable power by 9.6% and contributing an unprecedented 83% of global power additions, largely due to the growth of solar and wind power, and the further decommissioning of fossil fuel power plants in several large economies. Solar power alone accounted for almost two-thirds of the renewable additions with a record 192 GW, while 75 GW of wind energy was added, slowing from the 111 GW added in 2020.

Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear, Kozeracki et al, Department of Energy

U.S. domestic nuclear capacity has the potential to scale from ~100 GW in 2023 to ~300 GW by 2050—driven by the deployment of advanced nuclear technologies. Power system decarbonization modeling, regardless of the level of renewables deployment, suggests that the U.S. will need ~550–770 GW of additional clean, firm capacity to reach net zero; nuclear power is one of the few proven options that could deliver this at scale while creating high-paying jobs with concentrated economic benefits for communities most impacted by the energy transition. Advanced nuclear includes a range of proven and innovative technologies. Advanced nuclear provides a differentiated value proposition for a decarbonized grid. To unlock deployment at scale, Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) advanced nuclear overnight capital costs may need to approach ~$3,600 per kW. However, the nuclear industry today is at a commercial stalemate between potential customers and investments in the nuclear industrial base needed for deployment—putting decarbonization goals at risk. Utilities and other potential customers recognize the need for nuclear power, but perceived risks of uncontrolled cost overrun and project abandonment have limited committed orders for new reactors.

Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Long Duration Energy Storage, Scott et al, Department of Energy

Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES), will be key to providing flexibility and reliability in a future decarbonized power system. LDES includes a set of diverse technologies that share the goal of storing energy for long periods of time for future dispatch. The form of energy that is stored and released, as well as the duration of dispatch, is highly variable across technologies. The authors focus on the application of LDES systems for electricity purposes, e.g., energy is stored and then dispatched in the form of electricity at a later time. To evaluate the commercial feasibility of LDES within the U.S., this effort consulted a wide range of existing research and modeled a U.S.-power-sector decarbonization pathway with varied decarbonization and technical scenarios to assess LDES’s role in the power sector and factors influencing LDES deployment pathways for electricity needs

Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Clean Hydrogen, Murdoch et al, Department of Energy

The U.S. clean hydrogen market is poised for rapid growth, accelerated by Hydrogen Hub funding, multiple tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) including the hydrogen production tax credit (PTC), DOE’s Hydrogen Shot, and decarbonization goals across the public and private sectors. Hydrogen can play a role in decarbonizing up to 25% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, particularly in industrial/chemical uses and heavy-duty transportation sectors. Achieving commercial liftoff will enable clean hydrogen to play a critical role in the Nation's decarbonization strategy. The clean hydrogen market will be accelerated by historic commitments to America’s clean energy economy, including equities in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Together, these supply-side incentives can make clean hydrogen cost-competitive with incumbent technologies in the next 3–5 years for numerous applications. Clean hydrogen production for domestic demand has the potential to scale from < 1 million metric tons per year (MMTpa) to ~10 MMTpa in 2030.

Can Advanced Nuclear Repower Coal Country?, John Jacobs and Lesley Jantarasami, Bipartisan Policy Center

With nearly a quarter of the U.S. coal-fired fleet scheduled to retire by 2029, replacing retiring coal power plants with advanced nuclear, specifically small modular reactors (SMR), has been put forth as a strategy to maintain local employment and economic opportunities for existing energy workers and communities, while simultaneously pursuing national climate goals. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) recent and groundbreaking certification of the country’s first SMR design pushes the technology closer to maturity. As SMRs shift toward commercial deployment, identifying the existing opportunities and hurdles is vital to create a pathway for future coal-to-nuclear transition projects. The authors analyze the benefits and challenges of a coal-to-nuclear transition and highlight recent legislation that may hasten such a transition.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

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