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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #3 2024

Posted on 18 January 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

The New Climate DenialThe Center for Countering Digital Hate

The authors quantify the startling and important rise over the past five years in what they call “New Denial” — the departure from rejection of anthropogenic climate change, to attacks on climate science and scientists, and rhetoric seeking to undermine confidence in solutions to climate change. “New Denial” claims now constitute 70% of all climate denial claims made on YouTube, up from 35% six years ago. The study centers on data analysis performed by an AI tool, CARDS, developed by academics Travis G. Coan, Constantine Boussalis, John Cook, and Mirjam O. Nanko. The AI allowed the authors to quantify the frequency of different types of climate denialist claims in text. The authors identified the changing tactics of climate deniers on YouTube by analyzing thousands of hours of transcripts of videos on the platform from 96 channels dating back to 2018.

[From this week's government/NGO section]

Acceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses, Storto & Yang, Nature Communications:

OHC [ocean heat content] increases heavily threaten the marine environment, therefore, reconstructing OHC before the well-instrumented period (i.e., before the Argo floats deployment in the mid-2000s) is crucial to understanding the multi-decadal climate change in the ocean. Here, we shed light on ocean warming and its uncertainty for the 1961-2022 period through a large ensemble reanalysis system that spans the major sources of uncertainties. Results indicate a 62-year warming of 0.43 ± 0.08 W m−2, and a statistically significant acceleration rate equal to 0.15 ± 0.04 W m−2 dec−1, locally peaking at high latitudes. The 11.6% of the global ocean area reaches the maximum yearly OHC in 2022, almost doubling any previous year. 

Climate change is rapidly deteriorating the climatic signal in Svalbard glaciers, Spolaor et al., The Cryosphere:

The Svalbard archipelago is particularly sensitive to climate change due to the relatively low altitude of its main ice fields and its geographical location in the higher North Atlantic, where the effect of Arctic amplification is more significant. The largest temperature increases have been observed during winter, but increasing summer temperatures, above the melting point, have led to increased glacier melt. Here, we evaluate the impact of this increased melt on the preservation of the oxygen isotope (δ18O) signal in firn records. δ18O is commonly used as a proxy for past atmospheric temperature reconstructions, and, when preserved, it is a crucial parameter to date and align ice cores. By comparing four different firn cores collected in 2012, 2015, 2017 and 2019 at the top of the Holtedahlfonna ice field (1100 m a.s.l.), we show a progressive deterioration of the isotope signal, and we link its degradation to the increased occurrence and intensity of melt events.

Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss, Gottlieb & Mankin, Nature

Here we show that human-caused warming has caused declines in Northern Hemisphere-scale March snowpack over the 1981–2020 period. Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins. 

Functional changes across marine habitats due to ocean acidification, Teixidó et al., Global Change Biology:

Here we quantify shifts in species composition and trait diversity associated with ocean acidification (OA) by using field measurements at marine CO2 vent systems spanning four reef habitats across different depths in a temperate coastal ecosystem. We find that both species and trait diversity decreased, and that ecosystem properties (understood as the interplay between species, traits, and ecosystem function) shifted with acidification. Furthermore, shifts in trait categories such as autotrophs, filter feeders, herbivores, and habitat-forming species were habitat-specific, indicating that OA may produce divergent responses across habitats and depths.

The role of flexible geothermal power in decarbonized electricity systems, Ricks et al., Nature Energy:

In this work we evaluate the impact of operational flexibility on the long-run system value and deployment potential of EGS [enhanced geothermal systems] power in the western United States. We find that load-following generation and in-reservoir energy storage enhance the role of EGS power in least-cost decarbonized electricity systems, substantially increasing optimal geothermal penetration and reducing bulk electricity supply costs compared to systems with inflexible EGSs or no EGSs. Flexible geothermal plants preferentially displace the most expensive competing resources by shifting their generation on diurnal and seasonal timescales, with round-trip energy storage efficiencies of 59–93%. Benefits of EGS flexibility are robust across a range of electricity market and geothermal technology development scenarios.

The perceived potential of religion in mitigating climate change and how this is being realized in Germany and Switzerland, Hearn et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences:

This article examines the perceived potential of religion in mitigating climate change and how this is being realized. Based on 38 interviews, conducted with representatives from religious communities and umbrella organizations in Germany and Switzerland, we focus on the areas of values, political influence, and materialization. Our results show that the potential of religion in addressing climate change remains largely unfulfilled despite increasing steps in this direction.

Global Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Fresh Groundwater Resources, Zamrsky et al., Earth's Future

Here, we assess the impact of sea level rise exclusively on coastal fresh groundwater resources worldwide (limited to areas with unconsolidated sedimentary systems) by estimating future decline in inland fresh groundwater volumes under three sea level rise scenarios following Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. For that, 2D groundwater models in 1,200 coastal regions estimate the past, present and future groundwater salinity. Our results show that roughly 60 (range 16–96) million people living within 10 km from current coastline could lose more than 5% of their fresh groundwater resources by 2100 according to RCP 8.5 scenario compared to only 8 (range 0–50) million people based on RCP 2.6 scenario. 

Job creation in a low carbon transition to renewables and energy efficiency: a review of international evidence, Hanna et al., Sustainability Science

In this paper, we present findings from a systematic review on job creation, quality, and skills, focusing on decarbonisation in the energy sector. We compare a range of gross job employment factors which indicate that overall, investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency can deliver more jobs than gas or coal power generation. In addition, we review a subset of recent studies which estimate the net employment effects of decarbonisation in the energy sector at a national scale, across various international contexts. These national studies largely agree that the most likely outcome over the next few decades is a modest net positive creation of jobs and moderate economic growth.  

189 articles in 71 journals by 1141 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Low-level Arctic clouds: a blind zone in our knowledge of the radiation budget, Griesche et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-597-2024

Oceanic Influence and Lapse Rate Changes Dominate the Recent Amplified Saharan Warming, Zhuo & Rose, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106961

Technical note: Determining Arctic Ocean halocline and cold halostad depths based on vertical stability, Metzner & Salzmann Salzmann Salzmann, Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-19-1453-2023

The Decreased Cloud Cover Dominated the Rapid Spring Temperature Rise in Arid Central Asia Over the Period 1980–2014, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107523

Thermal responses of dissolved organic matter under global change, Hu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44813-2

Observations of climate change, effects

Acceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses, Storto & Yang, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44749-7

Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12 Central Asian catchments, Didovets et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03673-3

Attribution of the August 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Southern China: Role of Dynamical and Thermodynamical Processes, Gong et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0175.1

Drought increased since the mid-20th century in the northern South American Altiplano revealed by a 389-year precipitation record, Morales et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-457-2023

Relative importance of global warming, the IPO, and the AMO in surface air temperature and terrestrial precipitation, Xu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8365

The 2021 heatwave was less rare in Western Canada than previously thought, Malinina & Gillett, 10.2139/ssrn.4572004

 

Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022, Greene et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A 16-year global climate data record of total column water vapour generated from OMI observations in the visible blue spectral range, Borger et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-3023-2023

A climate data record of year-round global sea-ice drift from the EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF), Lavergne & Down, Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-5807-2023

A global historical twice-daily (daytime and nighttime) land surface temperature dataset produced by Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer observations from 1981 to 2021, Li et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-2189-2023

A high-resolution synthesis dataset for multistressor analyses along the US West Coast, Kennedy et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-219-2024

A new typology of climate change risk for European cities and regions: Principles and applications, Hincks et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102767

An integrated and homogenized global surface solar radiation dataset and its reconstruction based on an artificial intelligence approach, Jiao et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-178

Climate change is rapidly deteriorating the climatic signal in Svalbard glaciers, Spolaor et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-307-2024

CMEMS-LSCE: a global, 0.25°, monthly reconstruction of the surface ocean carbonate system, Chau et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-121-2024

Development of a nonstationary standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) and its application across China, Sun et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107256

Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR): preserving quantile trends for modeling future climate impacts, Gergel et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-191-2024

Optical and radar Earth observation data for upscaling methane emissions linked to permafrost degradation in sub-Arctic peatlands in northern Sweden, Sjögersten et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-4221-2023

Toward a versatile spaceborne architecture for immediate monitoring of the global methane pledge, Wang et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-5233-2023

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Effects of CO2 vegetation forcing on precipitation and heat extremes in China, Chen et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07046-5

Estimations of potential evapotranspiration from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble over Africa, Yahaya et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107255

Expansion of winter ENSO-associated rainfall affected area in Southeast Asia under warmer climate, Leong et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8358

Impacts of Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Daily Weather Patterns over North America, Gervais et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0389.1

Low latitude mesospheric clouds in a warmer climate, Dutta et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1209

Statistically downscaled CMIP6 ocean variables for European waters, Kristiansen et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-51160-1

The future of extreme meteorological fire danger under climate change scenarios for Iberia, Bento et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100623

Trends of precipitation and temperature extremes over Malawi and Mozambique during the recent decades from models and observations, Amosi & Anyah, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04659-y

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A Comparison of Regional Climate Projections With a Range of Climate Sensitivities, Barnes et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd038917

Dynamically computed characteristic adjustment time scale for Zhang–McFarlane convective parameterization scheme, Wang et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-07031-y

Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia, Wijngaard et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023

High-resolution downscaling of CMIP6 Earth system and global climate models using deep learning for Iberia, Soares et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-229-2024

Impact of increased resolution on Arctic Ocean simulations in Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2), Wang et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-347-2024

Impacts of Nudged Sea Surface Temperature on Tropical Precipitation, Moisture, and Vertical Velocity in an Earth System Model, Kong et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0355.1

Non-stationary modeling of seasonal precipitation series in Turkey: estimating the plausible range of seasonal extremes, Tosunoglu et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04807-4

Origins of Uncertainty in the Response of the Summer North Pacific Subtropical High to CO2 Forcing, Lu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105042

Pace v0.2: a Python-based performance-portable atmospheric model, Dahm et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-16-2719-2023

Scalable Feature Extraction and Tracking (SCAFET): a general framework for feature extraction from large climate data sets, Nellikkattil et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-301-2024

Truly conserving with conservative remapping methods, Taylor, Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-415-2024

Cryosphere & climate change

Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations, Felikson et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023

Environmental factors controlling soil warming and wetting during 2000–2020 in permafrost and non-permafrost regions across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, YIN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.004

European heat waves 2022: contribution to extreme glacier melt in Switzerland inferred from automated ablation readings, Cremona et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-1895-2023

Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss, Gottlieb & Mankin, Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-023-06794-y

Greenland and Canadian Arctic ice temperature profiles database, Løkkegaard et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023

Increased glacier melt enhances future extreme floods in the southern Tibetan Plateau, SUN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.003

Long-term ice mass changes in Greenland and Antarctica derived from satellite laser ranging, Ga?dyn et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2024.113994

Modelling glacier mass balance and climate sensitivity in the context of sparse observations: application to Saskatchewan Glacier, western Canada, Kinnard et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-16-3071-2022

Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022, Greene et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2

Vertical Land Motion Due To Present-Day Ice Loss From Greenland's and Canada's Peripheral Glaciers, Berg et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104851

Sea level & climate change

Global Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Fresh Groundwater Resources, Zamrsky et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003581

Saltwater Intrusion and Sea Level Rise threatens U.S. rural coastal landscapes and communities, O’Donnell et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100427

Sea level and temperature extremes in a regulated Lagoon of Venice, Ferrarin et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1330388

The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change, Kopp et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023

The impacts of climate change on coastal groundwater, Richardson et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43017-023-00500-2

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A Systematic Role for Extreme Ocean-Atmosphere Oscillations in the Development of Glacial Conditions Since the Mid Pleistocene Transition, Barker & Knorr, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2023pa004690

A transient CGCM simulation of the past 3 million years, Yun et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2023-34

Arctic and Antarctic forcing of ocean interior warming during the last deglaciation, Stewart et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-023-49435-0

Assessing environmental change associated with early Eocene hyperthermals in the Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA, Rush et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-1677-2023

Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, O'Connor et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023

Less Dryland Aridity During Pliocene Warmth, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039371

Multi-Proxy Evidence for Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Weakening During Deglaciations of the Past 150,000 Years, Garity & Lund, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 10.1029/2023pa004629

One catastrophic flood every millennium: Synchronicity of extreme floods and global warm periods in the multi-archive record of the Roman theatre of Guadix (Granada, SE Spain), Diez-Herrero et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104363

Past permafrost dynamics can inform future permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks, Jones et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00886-3

The effect of the Pliocene temperature pattern on silicate weathering and Pliocene–Pleistocene cooling, Maffre et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-1461-2023

The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium, Lücke et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-959-2023

The weather diary of Georg Christoph Eimmart for Nuremberg, 1695–1704, Brönnimann, Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-1345-2023

Warming drove the expansion of marine anoxia in the equatorial Atlantic during the Cenomanian leading up to Oceanic Anoxic Event 2, Abraham et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-2569-2023

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Assessing impacts of coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) farming: a case study in the Hinase area, Okayama Prefecture, and Shizugawa Bay, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, Fujii et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-4527-2023

Climate change determines the sign of productivity trends in US forests, Hogan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2311132121

Climate factors drive plant distributions at higher taxonomic scales and larger spatial scales, Huang et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2023.1233936

Cold adaptation does not handicap warm tolerance in the most abundant Arctic seabird, Beaman et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2023.1887

Cool-edge populations of the kelp Ecklonia radiata under global ocean change scenarios: strong sensitivity to ocean warming but little effect of ocean acidification, Britton et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2023.2253

Elevated temperatures shift flower head height distributions and seed dispersal patterns in two invasive thistle species, Drees & Shea, Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4201

Extreme heat reduces host and parasite performance in a butterfly–parasite interaction, Ragonese et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2023.2305

Factors affecting the nesting success of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevational gradient, Deckel et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10738

Functional changes across marine habitats due to ocean acidification, Teixidó et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17105

Global warming alters Himalayan hemlock’s climate sensitivity and growth dynamics, Rai et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-07026-9

Increasing fish biodiversity in high elevation Albertan lakes in response to global environmental change over the past 50 years, Wu et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2023.1129356

Inland populations of sugar maple manifest higher phenological plasticity than coastal populations, Zhou et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2023.1320745

Investigating the long-term response of plateau vegetation productivity to extreme climate: insights from a case study in Qinghai Province, China, An et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02593-2

Mapping 24 woody plant species phenology and ground forest phenology over China from 1951 to 2020, Zhu et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-159

Marked recent declines in boron in Baltic Sea cod otoliths – a bellwether of incipient acidification in a vast hypoxic system?, Limburg et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-4751-2023

More Than Marine Heatwaves: A New Regime of Heat, Acidity, and Low Oxygen Compound Extreme Events in the Gulf of Alaska, Hauri et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av001039

Mutualisms in a warming world, Cruz et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14264

Past disturbances and local conditions influence the recovery rates of coral reefs, Walker et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17112

Pollen in Polar Ice Implies Eastern Canadian Forest Dynamics Diverged From Climate After European Settlement, Brugger et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105581

Reviews and syntheses: The clam before the storm – a meta-analysis showing the effect of combined climate change stressors on bivalves, Kruft Welton et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-223-2024

Seeking temporal refugia to heat stress: increasing nocturnal activity despite predation risk, Brivio et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2023.1587

Selection of climate variables in ant species distribution models: case study in South Korea, Kwon et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02588-z

The thermal journey of macroalgae: Four decades of temperature-induced changes in the Southeastern Bay of Biscay, Arriaga et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106351

Three hundred years of past and future changes for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin—Historical flow alterations versus future climate change, Friedrichs?Manthey et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13808

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Circum-Antarctic Plankton Isoscape: Carbon Export Potential Across the Summertime Southern Ocean, Stirnimann et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007808

A global catalogue of CO2 emissions and co-emitted species from power plants, including high-resolution vertical and temporal profiles, Guevara et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-337-2024

A new method for estimating carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatland forest soils for the greenhouse gas inventory of Finland, Alm et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-3827-2023

Drivers of Air-Sea CO2 Flux in the Subantarctic Zone Revealed by Time Series Observations, Yang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007766

Driving and limiting factors of CH4 and CO2 emissions from coastal brackish-water wetlands in temperate regions, Chiapponi et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-73-2024

Ecological and economic influencing factors on the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon balance zoning in the Taihu Basin, Wang et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2023.1230919

Efficient biological carbon export to the mesopelagic ocean induced by submesoscale fronts, Guo et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44846-7

Exploring environmental and physiological drivers of the annual carbon budget of biocrusts from various climatic zones with a mechanistic data-driven model, Ma et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-2553-2023

Greenhouse gas emissions and their trends over the last 3 decades across Africa, Mostefaoui et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-245-2024

Improved process representation of leaf phenology significantly shifts climate sensitivity of ecosystem carbon balance, Norton et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-2455-2023

Mapping soil organic carbon fractions for Australia, their stocks and uncertainty, Román Dobarco et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-1559-2023

Mapping soil organic carbon fractions for Australia, their stocks, and uncertainty, Román Dobarco et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-1559-2023

Optical and radar Earth observation data for upscaling methane emissions linked to permafrost degradation in sub-Arctic peatlands in northern Sweden, Sjögersten et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-4221-2023

Organo–organic interactions dominantly drive soil organic carbon accrual, Kang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17147

Persistent net release of carbon dioxide and methane from an Alaskan lowland boreal peatland complex, Euskirchen et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17139

Process-oriented models of leaf senescence are biased towards the mean: Impacts on model performance and future projections, Meier et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17099

Recent Advances and Challenges in Monitoring and Modeling Non-Growing Season Carbon Dioxide Fluxes from the Arctic Boreal Zone, Arndt et al., Current Climate Change Reports Open Access 10.1007/s40641-023-00190-4

Sea–air methane flux estimates derived from marine surface observations and instantaneous atmospheric measurements in the northern Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay, Vogt et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-1773-2023

Sediment carbon storage differs in native and non-native Caribbean seagrass beds, Brenner et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106307

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Sphagnum mosses, the impact of disturbances and anthropogenic management actions on their ecological role in CO2 fluxes generated in peatland ecosystems, Pacheco?Cancino et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16972

Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget, Rogelj & Lamboll, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8

Thermal responses of dissolved organic matter under global change, Hu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44813-2

Understanding greenhouse gas (GHG) column concentrations in Munich using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, Zhao et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-14325-2023

Zonal variability of methane trends derived from satellite data, Hachmeister et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-577-2024

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Biomass Storage in Anoxic Marine Basins: Initial Estimates of Geochemical Impacts and CO2 Sequestration Capacity, Raven et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.168276141.13056479/v1

Decarbonization

Accurate nowcasting of cloud cover at solar photovoltaic plants using geostationary satellite images, Xia et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44666-1

Is nuclear energy really sustainable? A critical analysis on the example of the Polish energy transition plan, Pie?kowski, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101376

Pathways toward commercial perovskite/silicon tandem photovoltaics, Aydin et al., Science 10.1126/science.adh3849

Quantifying the Effects of Energy Infrastructure on Bird Populations and Biodiversity, Katovich, Environmental Science & Technology Open Access 10.1021/acs.est.3c03899

Sustainable pathways towards universal renewable electricity access in Africa, Peters et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-023-00501-1

The role of flexible geothermal power in decarbonized electricity systems, Ricks et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01437-y

Understanding the load profiles and electricity consumption patterns of PV mini-grid customers in rural off-grid east africa: A data-driven study, Wassie & Ahlgren Ahlgren, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113969

Geoengineering climate

Changes in global teleconnection patterns under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios, Rezaei et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-5835-2023

Like diamonds in the sky? Public perceptions, governance, and information framing of solar geoengineering activities in Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States, Baum et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2301262

Aerosols

Characteristics of Aerosols and Clouds and Their Role in Earth’s Energy Budget, Yu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0414.1

Increased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-44597-x

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects, Mahowald et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-24-533-2024

Climate change communications & cognition

A meta-analysis on the relationship between climate anxiety and wellbeing, Gago et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102230

Are COVID-19 and climate change competing crises? New evidence on the finite pool of worry and risk-as-feelings hypotheses, Duan et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-023-00887-w

Climate change countermovements and adaptive strategies: insights from Heartland Institute annual conferences a decade apart, Boykoff, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03655-5

Differential effects of digital media platforms on climate change risk information-sharing intention: A moderated mediation model, Paek et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.14270

Displacements of Care in Climate Crisis: The Case of Tipping Points, Russill, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2023.2301000

How the experience of California wildfires shape Twitter climate change framings, Ko et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03668-0

The perceived potential of religion in mitigating climate change and how this is being realized in Germany and Switzerland, Hearn et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-023-00884-z

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Cover crops do increase soil organic carbon stocks—A critical comment on Chaplot and Smith (2023), Poeplau et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17128

Effects of water management and grassland renewal on the greenhouse gas emissions from intensively used grassland on bog peat, Tiemeyer et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109858

Maximizing soil organic carbon stocks through optimal ploughing and renewal strategies in (Ley) grassland, Hu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01202-3

Overcoming barriers to climate-smart agriculture in South Asia, Ishtiaque et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01905-z

Sources of nitrous oxide emissions from agriculturally managed peatlands, Wang et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17144

Spatiotemporal evolution of factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions: empirical evidence from 31 Chinese provinces, Zheng et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04337-z

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Attribution of current trends in streamflow to climate change for 12 Central Asian catchments, Didovets et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03673-3

Declining coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades, Li et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17141

Global Impact of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Fresh Groundwater Resources, Zamrsky et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003581

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Relative importance of global warming, the IPO, and the AMO in surface air temperature and terrestrial precipitation, Xu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8365

Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population, Trancoso et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44513-3

Simulated research on distributed hydrological models–a case study of the Daxi Water Basin, Wang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2023.1348730

The impacts of climate change on coastal groundwater, Richardson et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43017-023-00500-2

Climate change economics

Assessment of extreme temperature to fiscal pressure in China, Chen et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102797

Asymmetric variations in economic globalization, CO2 emissions, oil prices, and economic growth: a nonlinear analysis for policy empirics, Khurshid et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04364-w

CO2 emission, life expectancy, and economic growth: a triad analysis of Sub-Saharan African countries, Kumar & Radulescu, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04391-7

Do financial development, urbanization, economic growth and renewable energy promote the emission mitigation agenda of Africa? Evidence from models that account for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, Kong et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1269416

Economic crises as critical junctures for policy and structural changes towards decarbonization – the cases of Spain and Germany, Bersalli et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2301750

Investigating the impact of a green economy on the EKC hypothesis: Evidence from European countries, Subramaniam, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04349-9

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Achieving the 1.5 °C goal with equitable mitigation in Latin American countries, Ramírez-Padilla et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10101-5

Embedding deliberation: guiding the use of deliberative mini-publics in climate policy-making, Ainscough & Willis, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2303337

Experiences and lessons for China's energy transition: From the firewood era to the low carbon era, Huang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101368

Geographies of regulatory disparity underlying Australia’s energy transition, White et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01422-5

Interdisciplinary examination of landscape architecture and emergency management in the context of climate change mitigation, Wood, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06379-y

Job creation in a low carbon transition to renewables and energy efficiency: a review of international evidence, Hanna et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01440-y

Phasing out carbon not coal? Identifying coal lock-in sources in Japan’s power utilities, Trencher et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2302324

Political expectations and electoral responses to wind farm development in Sweden, Isaksson & Gren, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.113984

Predicting and decarbonizing carbon emissions from building energy use in Hong Kong: A LASSO regression approach, Yu et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101374

Return and volatility connectedness among carbon and energy markets based on time- and frequency-domain approaches, Wu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1315893

Stakeholders' awareness of urban form effects on rooftop solar photovoltaic in Ghana: Implications for integrated solar energy and urban planning, Akrofi et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101377

Understanding the load profiles and electricity consumption patterns of PV mini-grid customers in rural off-grid east africa: A data-driven study, Wassie & Ahlgren Ahlgren, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113969

Water-table-driven greenhouse gas emission estimates guide peatland restoration at national scale, Koch et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-2387-2023

Whose negative emissions? Exploring emergent perspectives on CDR from the EU's hard to abate and fossil industries, Brad et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1268736

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A methodology for analysing the impacts of climate change on maritime security, Brennan & Germond, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03676-0

Assessment of the flood damage reduction effect of climate change adaptation policies under temperature increase scenarios, Seo et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10105-9

Local knowledge matters: understanding the decision-making processes of communities under climate change in Suriname, Smith et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1294271

Morocco’s climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation—a stocktake, Ongoma et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-023-02176-2

Multi-scenario analysis in the Apulia shoreline: A multi-tiers analytical framework for the combined evaluation and management of coastal erosion and water quality risks, Dal Barco et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103665

Perspectives on Indigenous well-being and climate change adaptation, Jarillo & Crivelli, WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.877

Safe drinking water supply under extreme climate events: evidence from four urban sprawl communities, Ayanlade, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2023.2264270

Climate change impacts on human health

Assessing the escalating human-perceived heatwaves in a warming world: The case of China, Zhang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100643

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a bariatric surgical unit is a complex but feasible project, Dargent, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-51441-9

Use of machine learning tools to predict health risks from climate-sensitive extreme weather events: A scoping review, Ssebyala et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000338

Climate change impacts on human culture

Trends and impacts of temperature and fire regimes in South Africa’s coastal national parks: implications for tourism, Chapungu et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-06384-1

Other

Impact of precipitation on Beishan landslide deformation from 1986 to 2023, Liu et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2023.1304969

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

An even drier future for the arid lands, Allan & Douville, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2320840121

Climate policy must integrate blue energy with food security, Gong et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-024-00023-w

Climate risk assessments must engage with the law, Wetzer et al., Science Open Access 10.1126/science.adj0598

Five tensions in climate adaptation research, Rickards et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1215171

Fixing forest carbon credits, Pande, Science 10.1126/science.adn4923

NOAA fisheries research geared towards climate-ready living marine resource management in the northeast United States, Saba et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000323

Practicing Care Through Creative and Collaborative Climate Communication, Doyle, Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2023.2299355

Supply, demand and polarization challenges facing US climate policies, Burgess et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01906-y

Sustainable pathways towards universal renewable electricity access in Africa, Peters et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-023-00501-1

The mediated planet: Datafication and the environmental SDGs, Wickberg et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103673

Three priorities for evidence-based governance of heatwave events in Europe, Bergh & Geertsema, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000335

Wind-wave climate changes and their impacts, Casas-Prat et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-023-00502-0

Book reviews

In Quest of A Shared Planet: Negotiating climate from the Global South, Elhard, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2301258


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Transforming Energy Demand, Daniel Gross and Matthew Yeomans, World Economic Forum and PwC

The authors outline actions for businesses and countries to enhance energy management, efficiency, and carbon intensity reduction. they highlight commercially beneficial levers, implementable with existing technologies, to affect the transition significantly. Adopting measures for energy-efficient output and service delivery is essential for businesses and countries to sustain economic growth and achieve net-zero goals. As the global population and energy demand rise, particularly in developing markets, implementing public policies and fostering value chain collaborations are key to managing energy consumption and reducing carbon intensity. This will help mitigate energy costs and supply issues and unlock commercial benefits, thereby accelerating the transition. At COP28, over 120 countries committed to doubling the pace of energy efficiency improvement, necessitating concrete, realistic plans.

Global Water Monitor 2023 Summary Report, Van Dijk et al., Global Water Monitor

The authors provide rapid and global information on climate and water resources through information on rainfall, air temperature, humidity, soil and groundwater conditions, vegetation access to water, river flows, flooding, and lake volumes in 2023. Trends in the water cycle and some of the most important hydrological events of 2023 are interpreted and discussed. For example in 2023, precipitation was close to average. There does not appear to be a clear trend toward more monthly high or low rainfall extremes. The average temperature was the highest recorded globally and in 77 countries. The frequency of record-warm months was also the highest 0bserved. Relative air humidity was the second lowest on record, continuing a trend towards drier average and extreme conditions. Drier-than-normal conditions prevailed nearly everywhere. Despite warmer and drier conditions, high annual soil water conditions were observed in many regions. Vegetation vigor was the highest since 2001, continuing a steady increase over the last decades. Surface water occurrence from water bodies and flood events was the second lowest in two decades, but months with record high water occurrence appear to be increasing globally. River flows were slightly lower than the previous year. Record high river flows appear to be getting more common, and record low flows are less common. Lake volumes have been increasing over recent decades. High-storage records are broken more often. Many dry and wet records in terrestrial water storage - combining all parts of the terrestrial water cycle - were broken in 2023, despite several months of missing data.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Fall 2023, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of nearly 5 to 1 (72% versus 15%). 58% understand that global warming is mostly human-caused. By contrast, 29% think it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment. 65% say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming, including 29% who are “very worried.” 28% hear about global warming in the media at least once a week.

Regional population dynamics and mobility trends in the Pacific, Bedford et al., University of Auckland

The authors discuss the contemporary demographic context and future dynamics of population change, including international mobility, in the Pacific region. A key finding is that it would be prudent to monitor population change in five different Pacific population clusters, rather than focussing on the usual three sub-regions of Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia. These clusters are Western Pacific, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, Northern Pacific, and French Territories. Population change and climate change are similar in that both require lengthy timeframes for their monitoring and analysis. The authors' primary objective is to produce a synthesis of findings relating to population change in the Pacific region over the century between 1950 and 2050.

The year of 2023 was the second-warmest on record for the UK, narrowly behind the record set as recently as 2022, McCarthy et al., Met Office

The authors look back at the UK’s climate in 2023, the significant climate events that shaped the year and how human-caused climate change influenced them. they found that eight of the 12 months of the year were warmer than average. Somewhat unusually, the warmest periods were in June and September, with the high summer months of July and August generally cooler and wetter. June was the hottest month of the year for the first time since 1966 and was the hottest June on record by a large margin. Through a climate attribution analysis, they showed that a year as warm as 2023 has been made around 150 times more likely due to human-caused climate change. They would expect to reach or exceed the 2023 annual temperature in around 33% of years in the current climate. 2023 was relatively wet with 1,290mm of rainfall, making it the UK’s 11th wettest year in a series going back to 1836. The few wintery cold spells of the year were relatively short-lived. 2023-24 has seen the most active start to the storm season since naming storms began in 2015.

2023 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, Gagnon et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory

The authors present the ninth edition of the annual Standard Scenarios. They summarize 53 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures. The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which projects utility-scale electricity sector evolution for the contiguous United States using a system-wide, least-cost approach subject to policy and operational constraints. A subset of the scenarios are simulated in the PLEXOS production cost model to obtain a broader suite of metrics at the hourly resolution, which are made available through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) annual Cambium3 data sets.

Global Drought Snapshot 2023, Tsegai et al., United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

The authors provide both current and future effects of drought. For present effects paint a vivid picture of the multiple impacts of drought. From dwindling reservoir levels to declining crop yields, from loss of biological diversity to famines, the numbers reveal the “loud” reality of drought. The majority of data points used were published within the last 24 months. To combat the negative effects of drought, global drought resilience is essential. the authors then shift the focus away from the multiple negative and often cascading impacts to building resilience, which involves proactive measures that minimize vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity. This encompasses various sectors, including agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness. In addition, raising awareness and providing support to vulnerable communities can help build their resilience in times of drought.

Drought and Extreme Heat Impacts to Data Centers in Northern California, Gemma Anderson, Infrastructure Security Division, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Department of Homeland Security

Commonly, data centers are designed and operated on the assumption of stationarity of the climate. Historical weather data informs the basis of their design and operations. However, as a result of climate change, this assumption is not valid and poses a great risk for data centers. In the coming decades, Northern California’s drought and extreme heat risk is projected to increase significantly. The author provides a drought and extreme heat impact assessment of data centers in this region. The author identifies the climate variables and analytics relevant for assessing data center-specific impacts from extreme heat and drought and demonstrates how to access and understand future climate projections from climate models. The author emphasizes the importance of including future climate projections in data center design and planning.

The Global Risks Report 2024, World Economic Forum

The authors present the findings of the Global Risks Perception Survey which captures insights from nearly 1,500 global experts. The authors analyze global risks through three-time frames to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities. Chapter 1 explores the most severe current risks, and those ranked highest by survey respondents, over two years, analyzing in depth the three risks that have rapidly accelerated into the top 10 rankings over the two-year horizon. Chapter 2 focuses on the top risks emerging over the next decade against a backdrop of geostrategic, climate, technological, and demographic shifts, diving deeper into four specific risk outlooks. The authors conclude by considering approaches for addressing complex and non-linear aspects of global risks during this period of global fragmentation.

Global Warming Acceleration: Causes and Consequences, Hansen et al., Columbia University

Record global temperature in 2023 helps reveal the acceleration of global warming on decadal time scales. The proximate cause of the acceleration is an increase in Earth’s energy imbalance, specifically a substantial darkening of the planet (decreased albedo) equivalent to a CO2 increase of more than 100 ppm, although it is difficult to apportion the albedo change between aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks because of limited global measurements. Large 2023 warming is consistent with prior research; reduced aerosol cooling and high climate sensitivity. The authors expect record monthly temperatures to continue into mid-2024 due to the present large planetary energy imbalance, with the 12-month running-mean global temperature reaching +1.6-1.7°C relative to 1880-1920 and falling to only +1.4 ± 0.1°C during the following La Nina. Considering the large planetary energy imbalance, it will be clear that the world is passing through the 1.5°C ceiling, and is headed much higher unless steps are taken to affect Earth’s energy imbalance.

The New Climate Denial, The Center for Countering Digital Hate

The authors quantify the startling and important rise over the past five years in what they call “New Denial” — the departure from rejection of anthropogenic climate change, to attacks on climate science and scientists, and rhetoric seeking to undermine confidence in solutions to climate change. “New Denial” claims now constitute 70% of all climate denial claims made on YouTube, up from 35% six years ago. The study centers on data analysis performed by an AI tool, CARDS, developed by academics Travis G. Coan, Constantine Boussalis, John Cook, and Mirjam O. Nanko. The AI allowed the authors to quantify the frequency of different types of climate denialist claims in text. The authors identified the changing tactics of climate deniers on YouTube by analyzing thousands of hours of transcripts of videos on the platform from 96 channels dating back to 2018.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

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