Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2 2024
Posted on 11 January 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss, Gottlieb & Mankin, Nature:
Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins.
Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas, Nissen et al., Nature Communications:
Here we present 21st-century projections of OA [ocean acidification] in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.
Optimal fuel supply of green ammonia to decarbonise global shipping, Verschuur et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability:
Shipping is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize because of the need for fuel with high energy density and the difficulty of coordinating maritime actors to produce, utilize and finance alternative (green) fuel supply. One of the main obstacles has been deep uncertainty in how this coupled system of fuel supply, trade and shipping fleet may evolve in the future. In this paper, we have provided two scenarios of the most cost-efficient global arrangements for green ammonia production and supply to fuel a decarbonised shipping fleet. This should help to create greater clarity amongst investors (in ammonia production, transport, bunkering and ships) of how the global system may look in 2050.
African rice cultivation linked to rising methane, Chen et al., Nature Climate Change:
Africa has been identified as a major driver of the current rise in atmospheric methane,and this has been attributed to emissions from wetlands and livestock. Here we show thatrapidly increasing rice cultivation is another important source, and estimate that itaccounts for 7% of the current global rise in methane emissions. Continued rice expansion to feed a rapidly growing population should be considered in climate change mitigation goals.
Carbon dioxide removal: A source of ambition or of delays? Examining expectations for CDR in Swiss climate policy, von Rothkirch et al., Environmental Science & Policy:
We found that numerous promises help legitimize and attract interest in CDR. Actors use discursive strategies and rules to limit CDR and avoid disappointment in its contribution to climate mitigation. The idea that emission reduction should prevail over removal is promoted accordingly, which ironically helps legitimize the CDR idea yet dodges the question of how much removal is possible and for balancing which emissions. Superficial engagement with the issue is reinforced by the normalization of inflated promises and the sentiment that the mitigation deterrence rhetoric erodes trust in CDR. We argue that this can contribute to mitigation delays by evading the debate on what it is possible to remove and taking resources from alternative measures.
Greenwashing and sustainable finance: an approach anchored in the philosophy of science, Lagoarde-Ségot, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability:
This paper argues that certain erroneous premises upon which the mainstream finance paradigm is based are a structural cause of greenwashing. By scrutinizing the metatheoretical hypotheses of this paradigm through a critical realist lens, we aim to show that it rests upon on tacit representations that impose a distorted view of financial ‘knowledge’, financial systems, the Earth System, and society. This ontological bias leads to fallacious research questions, biased methodologies, and has even generated ill-advised policies that are conducive to the financialization of nature.
Decarbonizing Conference Travel: Testing a Multi-Hub Approach, Kremser et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:
As the global research enterprise grapples with the challenge of a low-carbon future, a key challenge is the future of international conferences. An emerging initiative that combines elements of the traditional in-person conference and a virtual conference is a multi-hub approach. Here we report on a real-world trial of a multi-hub approach, the World Climate Research Programme/Stratosphere-Troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (WCRP/SPARC) General Assembly held in Qingdao–Reading–Boulder during the last week of October 2022 with more than 400 participants. While there are other examples of conferences run in dual-hub or hybrid online and in-person formats, we are not aware of other large atmospheric science conferences held in this format. Based on travel surveys of participants, we estimate that the multi-hub approach reduced the carbon footprint from travel by between a factor of 2.3 and 4.1 times the footprint when hosting the conference in a single location.[Does this mean a negative carbon footprint?]
205 articles in 73 journals by 1382 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A drier Orinoco basin during the twenty-first century: the role of the Orinoco low-level jet, Correa et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07028-7
Hydrological cycle amplification reshapes warming-driven oxygen loss in the Atlantic Ocean, Hogikyan et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01897-w
Increase in MJO predictability under global warming, Du et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01885-0
Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau, Xu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44403-8
Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics, Feudel, Open Access pdf 10.5194/npg-2023-7
Sensitivity of cirrus and contrail radiative effect on cloud microphysical and environmental parameters, Wolf et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-14003-2023
The Cause of Negative CO2 Forcing at the Top-Of-Atmosphere: The Role of Stratospheric Versus Tropospheric Temperature Inversions, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106433
Thermodynamic and Dynamic Components of Winter Temperature Changes in Western Canada, 1950–2020, Newton et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0138.1
Observations of climate change, effects
Assessing exposure to climate extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using ERA5 reanalysis data: Spatial distribution and temporal trends, Al-Sakkaf et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107224
Climate warming is likely to weaken the performance of two-phase closed thermosyphon on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, JIANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.001
Extraordinary hot extreme in summer 2022 over the Yangtze River basin modulated by the La Niña condition under global warming, LIAO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.12.006
Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Feedback Signatures Identified in Hyperspectral Infrared Satellite Observations, Raghuraman et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl103947
Increasing Large Wildfire in the Eastern United States, Donovan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107051
Indigenous Peoples and local communities report ongoing and widespread climate change impacts on local social-ecological systems, Reyes-García et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01164-y
Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models, Simpson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2302480120
Seasonally extreme temperature events accelerate in arid northwestern China during 1979–2018, Zhu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107230
Start&2023&4, Ivanov et al., Open Access pdf 10.3897/bdj.11.e100521.figure4
The impact of environmental degradation and climate change on dust in Khuzestan province, Iran, Mohammadi et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06368-1
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A synthesis of ocean total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon measurements from 1993 to 2022: the SNAPO-CO2-v1 dataset, Metzl et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-89-2024
Homogenization of German daily and monthly mean temperature time series, Kunert et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8355
Mapping of ESA's Climate Change Initiative land cover data to plant functional types for use in the CLASSIC land model, Wang et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-2265-2023
Millennial-scale variations in Arctic sea ice are recorded in sedimentary ancient DNA of the microalga Polarella glacialis, Harðardóttir et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01179-5
MOPREDAScentury: a long-term monthly precipitation grid for the Spanish mainland, Beguería et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-2547-2023
NH-SWE: Northern Hemisphere Snow Water Equivalent dataset based on in situ snow depth time series, Fontrodona-Bach et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-2577-2023
Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales, Lenton et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w
Sensor-independent LAI/FPAR CDR: reconstructing a global sensor-independent climate data record of MODIS and VIIRS LAI/FPAR from 2000 to 2022, Pu et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-15-2024
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Diagnosing the Quasi-Equilibrium Response of ENSO Variability under a Range of CO2 Levels, Zhu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0079.1
Eddy activity in the Arctic Ocean projected to surge in a warming world, Li et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01908-w
Effects of CO $$&2$$ vegetation forcing on precipitation and heat extremes in China, Chen et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-07046-5
Estimating wildfire potential in Taiwan under different climate change scenarios, Yu et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03669-z
Fire weather index data under historical and shared socioeconomic pathway projections in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project from 1850 to 2100, Quilcaille et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-2153-2023
Impacts of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability on the rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau, Ding et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03670-6
Projected Changes in the Onset of the Summer Monsoon over the South Asian Marginal Seas Modulated by Intraseasonal Oscillation, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0257.1
Projections of Greenland climate change from CMIP5 and CMIP6, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104340
Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world, Cunningham et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17130
Unveiling climate change-induced temperature-based hotspots across India through multimodel future analysis from CMIP6, Sarkar & Maity, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8348
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Analyzing the uncertainty of potential evapotranspiration models in drought projections derived for a semi-arid watershed, Okkan et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04817-2
Hydrological Projections under CMIP5 and CMIP6: Sources and Magnitudes of Uncertainty, Wu et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0104.1
Origins of Underestimated Indian Ocean Dipole Skewness in CMIP5/6 Models, Zheng et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0412.1
Performance of Regional Climate Model Precipitation Simulations Over the Terrain-Complex Andes-Amazon Transition Region, Gutierrez et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd038618
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming, Varney et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023
Systematic Underestimation of Canopy Conductance Sensitivity to Drought by Earth System Models, Green et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av001026
Towards a realistic MISO simulation: impact of rectification, Pradhan et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07053-6
Cryosphere & climate change
A climatology of thermodynamic vs. dynamic Arctic wintertime sea ice thickness effects during the CryoSat-2 era, Anheuser et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-2871-2023
Climatic factors affecting Kamchatka glacier recession, Korneva et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8328
A climatology of thermodynamic vs. dynamic Arctic wintertime sea ice thickness effects during the CryoSat-2 era, Anheuser et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-2871-2023
Climatic factors affecting Kamchatka glacier recession, Korneva et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8328
Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss, Gottlieb & Mankin, Nature, Open Access 10.1038/s41586-023-06794-y
High mid-Holocene accumulation rates over West Antarctica inferred from a pervasive ice-penetrating radar reflector, Bodart et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-1497-2023
Modeling of surface energy balance for Icelandic glaciers using remote-sensing albedo, Gunnarsson et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-3955-2023
Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0), Lambert et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023
Sea level & climate change
Current observed global mean sea level rise and acceleration estimated from satellite altimetry and the associated measurement uncertainty, Guérou et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-19-431-2023
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations, Kim et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023
Polar paleoenvironmental perspectives on modern climate change, Gemery & López-Quirós, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000333
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Climate change and topographic differences influence grassland vegetation greening across environmental gradients, Xun et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1324742
Climate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse, Ling & Keane, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44543-x
Climatic conditions modulate the effect of spruce budworm outbreaks on black spruce growth, Subedi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109548
Cool shade and not-so-cool shade: How habitat loss may accelerate thermal stress under current and future climate, Stark et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16802
Elevated CO2 interacts with nutrient inputs to restructure plant communities in phosphorus-limited grasslands, Taylor et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17104
Enhanced Drought Exposure Increasingly Threatens More Forests Than Observed, Xu et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003705
Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs, Povak & Manley, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1286980
Habitability of low-lying socio-ecological systems under a changing climate, Spencer et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03675-1
Host movement dominates the predicted effects of climate change on parasite transmission between wild and domestic mountain ungulates, Dickinson et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.230469
Individual variation in thermally induced plasticity of metabolic rates: ecological and evolutionary implications for a warming world, Gvoždík, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2022.0494
Long-term evolution of the structure of the St. Lawrence (Canada) marine ecosystem in the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities: An isotopic perceptive, Rioux et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10740
Multi-dimensional temperature sensitivity of protected tropical mountain rain forests, Finegan et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1214911
One hundred and six years of change in a Sonoran Desert plant community: Impact of climate anomalies and trends in species sensitivities, Brown et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4194
Predicted changes in distribution and richness of wild edible plants under climate change scenarios in northwestern Kenya, Oluoch et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02175-3
Reproductive phenology of the Chesapeake Bay blue crab population in a changing climate, Schneider et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2023.1304021
Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas, Nissen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44438-x
Slower changes in vegetation phenology than precipitation seasonality in the dry tropics, Tian et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17134
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control, Xue et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-171
Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines, Atkinson et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44406-5
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A synthesis of SNAPO-CO2 ocean total alkalinity and total dissolved inorganic carbon measurements from 1993 to 2022, Metzl et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-308
Apportionment and Inventory Optimization of Agriculture and Energy Sector Methane Emissions Using Multi-Month Trace Gas Measurements in Northern Colorado, Mead et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105973
Assessment of methane emissions from oil, gas and coal sectors across inventories and atmospheric inversions, Tibrewal et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01190-w
Changes in climatic features of Northeast China Cold Vortex as reflected by ERA5 and CRA-40, Shi & Zhai, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107233
Divergent seasonal patterns and drivers of soil respiration in alpine forests of northwestern China, Chen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109787
Dominant role of soil moisture in mediating carbon and water fluxes in dryland ecosystems, Kannenberg et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01351-8
Establishing the global isoscape of leaf carbon in C3 plants through the integrations of remote sensing, carbon, geographic, and physiological information, Wang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113987
Factors influencing tree biomass and carbon stock in the Western Himalayas, India, Kumar et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1328694
Fire-Induced Carbon Loss and Tree Mortality in Siberian Larch Forests, Webb et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105216
Glacier loss and vegetation expansion alter organic and inorganic carbon dynamics in high-mountain streams, Robison et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-2301-2023
Global warming will largely increase waste treatment CH4 emissions in Chinese megacities: insight from the first city-scale CH4 concentration observation network in Hangzhou, China, Hu et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-4501-2023
Greenhouse gases in the tall tower of El Arenosillo station in Southwestern Europe: First-year of measurements, Adame et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107221
Hypoxia and its feedback response to algal blooms and CH4 emissions in subtropical reservoirs, Ji et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2023.1297047
Large-Scale Summertime Variability of Carbonate Chemistry Across the East Siberian Sea: Primary Production Versus Ikaite Dissolution, Sun et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc020600
Local processes with global impact: unraveling the dynamics of gas evasion in a step-and-pool configuration, Peruzzo et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-68
Monitoring global cement plants from space, Yang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113954
Nitrous oxide (N2O) synthesis by the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa, Fabisik et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-687-2023
Quantifying the contributions of climatic and human factors to vegetation net primary productivity dynamics in East Africa, Xu et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1332631
Radiative forcing of methane emission completely offsets net carbon dioxide uptake in a temperate freshwater marsh from the present to future, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109889
Reviews and syntheses: expanding the global coverage of gross primary production and net community production measurements using Biogeochemical-Argo floats, Izett et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-13-2024
Satellite derived trends and variability of CO2 concentrations in the Middle East during 2014–2023, Fonseca & Francis, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1289142
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Subsea permafrost and associated methane hydrate stability zone: how long can they survive in the future?, Malakhova & Eliseev, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04804-7
Substantial kelp detritus exported beyond the continental shelf by dense shelf water transport, van der Mheen et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-51003-5
Temporal and spatial mapping of theoretical biomass potential across the European Union, Günther et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-59-2024
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A global synthesis of reported urban tree carbon production rates and approaches, Jenerette & Herrmann, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2023.1244418
A replacement strategy for regulating local environment of single-atom Co-SxN4−x catalysts to facilitate CO2 electroreduction, Pei et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44652-7
Analysis of production routes for silicon carbide using air as carbon source empowering negative emissions, Mühlbauer et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10100-6
Elucidating protonation pathways in CO2 photoreduction using the kinetic isotope effect, Yin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44753-x
Factors driving carbon accumulation in forest biomass and soil organic carbon across natural forests and planted forests in China, Wang et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1333868
Inorganic and organic synergies in enhanced weathering to promote carbon dioxide removal, Tao & Houlton, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17132
Long-term effect of different forest thinning intensity on carbon sequestration rates and potential uses in climate change mitigation actions, Ganatsas et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-023-10102-4
Modeling the measurement of carbon dioxide removal: perspectives from the philosophy of measurement, Wilson, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1283333
One-dimensional single atom arrays on ferroelectric nanosheets for enhanced CO2 photoreduction, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44493-4
Pure-water-fed, electrocatalytic CO2 reduction to ethylene beyond 1,000 h stability at 10 A, She et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01415-4
Restored lowland heathlands store substantially less carbon than undisturbed lowland heath, Duddigan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01176-8
Simulating impacts on UK air quality from net-zero forest planting scenarios, Purser et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-782
Decarbonization
Analysis of agricultural waste/byproduct biomass potential for bioenergy: The case of Tunisia, Anvari et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101367
Compounding or Curative? Investigating the impact of electrolyzer deployment on congestion management in the German power grid, Rostler & Sternberg , Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Open Access 10.1021/ie50471a034
Concentration versus diversification: A spatial deployment approach to improve the economics of wind power, Klie & Madlener Madlener Madlener, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113957
Decarbonizing Conference Travel: Testing a Multi-Hub Approach, Kremser et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0160.1
Direct conversion of CO and H2O to hydrocarbons at atmospheric pressure using a TiO2−x/Ni photothermal catalyst, Qin et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01418-1
Donor–acceptor mutually diluted heterojunctions for layer-by-layer fabrication of high-performance organic solar cells, Wang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01436-z
Efficient and stable visible-light-driven Z-scheme overall water splitting using an oxysulfide H2 evolution photocatalyst, Lin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44706-4
How wind-based renewable energy contribute to CO2 emissions abatement? Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile estimation, Ali & Meo, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05409-3
Large-scale photovoltaic solar farms in the Sahara affect solar power generation potential globally, Long et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01117-5
Large-scale photovoltaic solar farms in the Sahara affect solar power generation potential globally, Long et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01117-5
New energy vehicle battery recycling strategy considering carbon emotion from a closed-loop supply chain perspective, Guo et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-51294-2
Nuclear waste in my backyard: Social acceptance and economic incentives, Bonev et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113979
Optimal fuel supply of green ammonia to decarbonise global shipping, Verschuur et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad097a
Research and analysis of energy consumption and energy saving in buildings based on photovoltaic photothermal integration, Cui & Zhang, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-51209-1
Research on the coal saving and emission reduction potential of advanced technologies in China's iron and steel industry, Huang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101373
Research priorities in the decarbonisation of buildings, Norton, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000334
Scalable nano-architecture for stable near-blackbody solar absorption at high temperatures, Guo et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44672-3
Strategies for connecting whole-building LCA to the low-carbon design process, McCord et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad17ce
The geographic extent of bird populations affected by renewable-energy development, Vander Zanden et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14191
The influence of additionality and time-matching requirements on the emissions from grid-connected hydrogen production, Giovanniello et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01435-0
Tin-Based Eco-Friendly Perovskites for Sustainable Future, Sen et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202300110
Geoengineering climate
Complexities of regulating climate by promoting marine primary production with ocean iron fertilization, Jiang et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104675
Black carbon
Black carbon content of traffic emissions significantly impacts black carbon mass size distributions and mixing states, Li et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-6545-2023
Aerosols
Aerosol and dynamical contributions to cloud droplet formation in Arctic low-level clouds, Motos et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-13941-2023
Multi-model ensemble projection of the global dust cycle by the end of 21st century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 data, Zhao et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-7823-2023
Climate change communications & cognition
Civil Disobedience by Environmental Scientists: An Experimental Study of its Influence on the Impact and Credibility of Climate Change Research, Friedman, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2302532
Combatting Climate Change Misinformation: Current Strategies and Future Directions, Chen, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2023.2299756
Is greenwashing impacting on green brand trust and purchase intentions? Mediating role of environmental knowledge, Isac et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04352-0
Wanting to be part of change but feeling overworked and disempowered: Researchers’ perceptions of climate action in UK universities, Latter et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000322
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
African rice cultivation linked to rising methane, Chen et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01907-x
Assessing climate change and its impact on kiwi (Actinidia deliciosa Chev.) production in the Eastern Himalayan Region of India through a combined approach of people perception and meteorological data, Patra et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04793-7
Carbon emissions and priming effects derived from crop residues and their responses to nitrogen inputs, Qin et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17115
Changing Climate Threatens Irrigation Benefits of Maize Gross Primary Productivity in China, Liao et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003474
Comparison of major carbon offset standards for soil carbon projects in Australian grazing lands, Pudasaini et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2298725
Diversification of crop rotations and soil carbon balance: impact assessment based on national-scale monitoring data, Kostensalo et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2298373
Farmers perspectives on options for and barriers to implementing climate resilient agriculture and implications for climate adaptation policy, Kundu et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103618
Food security assessment in the light of sustainable development goals: a post-Paris Agreement era, Ghufran et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04089-w
How to bridge the last mile in agro-climate service adoption? The importance of farmers’ needs, attitudes and interpersonal relations in understanding impact pathways, Luu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-04388-2
Knowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43860-5
Microbially mediated mechanisms underlie soil carbon accrual by conservation agriculture under decade-long warming, Tian et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44647-4
Perceptions and strategies of adaptation of Moroccan farmers to climate change—case of Khemisset province, Chaachouay & Zidane, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-024-00889-2
Responses of radial growth to climate change for two dominant artificial coniferous trees, Su et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2023.126163
Social–ecological vulnerability and risk of China’s marine capture fisheries to climate change, Li et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2313773120
The financial well-being of fruit farmers in Chile and Tunisia depends more on social and geographical factors than on climate change, Obster et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01128-2
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Beyond the local climate change uplift – The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain, Sayers et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-023-06350-x
Beyond the local climate change uplift – The importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain, Sayers et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-023-06350-x
Comment on “Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States”, Paciorek & Wehner Zhang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104550
Global Review of Modification, Optimization, and Improvement Models for Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment in the Era of Climate Change, Bordbar et al., Current Climate Change Reports 10.1007/s40641-023-00192-2
Hydrological records can be used to reconstruct the resilience of watersheds to climatic extremes, Huffaker et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01181-x
Impacts of climate and land coverage changes on potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity on drought phenomena over South Asia, Ali et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8357
Probabilistic Assessment of Global Drought Recovery and Its Response to Precipitation Changes, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106067
Reply to Comment on “Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States”, Biederman et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105124
Sea–air coupling leads to a decrease in precipitation in East Asia under present day conditions that is partially alleviated in future simulations, Peng et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00498-w
Wettening of the Southern Hemisphere Land Monsoon during 1901–2014, Cao et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0066.1
Climate change economics
Climate finance in developing countries: green budget tagging and resource mobilization, Pindiriri & Kwaramba, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2302325
Greenwashing and sustainable finance: an approach anchored in the philosophy of science, Lagoarde-Ségot, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101397
Has GVC participation exacerbated inequality of the embodied carbon in fossil energy industry export trade?, Zheng et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1293462
How do conventional, Islamic and green bonds idiosyncratically differ when it comes to their inherent nonlinear reliance on carbon emission future price? A novel approach to greenwashing detection, Ghaemi Asl & Shahzad, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04351-1
The need for a climate-resilient development-aligned framing of innovative climate finance, Omukuti, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101400
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A sustainable production-inventory model with CO2 emission, electricity and fuel consumption under quality degradation and stochastic demand: a case study in the agri-food industry, Utama et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04271-0
Carbon dioxide removal: A source of ambition or of delays? Examining expectations for CDR in Swiss climate policy, von Rothkirch et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103659
Corporate environmental governance and firm value: beyond greenwashing for sustainable development, Fu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04375-7
Does the electric vehicle industry help achieve sustainable development goals?—evidence from China, Lu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1276382
Empirical evidence on discrimination in multi-technology renewable energy auctions in Europe, Buschle et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113853
Energy savings potential and life cycle costs of deep energy retrofits in buildings with and without habitable style loft attic conversions: A case study of Irelands residential sector, Considine et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113980
Environmental decentralisation, environmental regulation, and agricultural carbon intensity: an empirical study based on Chinese provincial panel data, He et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03826-5
Financial openness and energy structure transformation, Jia et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1346594
Green cost performance measure of China’s thermal power industry: evidence from Chinese 30 provinces, Chen et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04372-w
High emissions or carbon neutral? Inclusion of “anthropogenic” forest sinks leads to underreporting of forestry emissions, Mueller et al., Conference on Lasers and Electro Open Access 10.1364/iqec.2004.ife5
Patterns of infringement, risk, and impact driven by coal mining permits in Indonesia, Werner et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01944-y
Relationship between renewable resources and electricity generation and its impact on environmental quality, Zhang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04383-7
Satellite quantification of methane emissions and oil–gas methane intensities from individual countries in the Middle East and North Africa: implications for climate action, Chen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-5945-2023
Techno-economic analysis of renewable energy sources’ potential in the rural northern region of Kalam in Pakistan, Jan et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04350-2
The Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework: A Database to Monitor and Assess Countries’ Mitigation Action, Nachtigall et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00821-2
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A Climate Extremes Resilience Index for the Conterminous United States, Narayanan et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0008.1
A drought and heat risk assessment framework for urban green infrastructure, Shehayeb et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.63
Adaptation, flourishing, and the importance of place, Shockley, Regional Environmental Change Open Access 10.1007/s10113-023-02089-0
Albedo as a Competing Warming Effect of Urban Greening, Schlaerth et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd038764
Assessing key behavioural theories of drought risk adaptation: Evidence from rural Kenya, Schrieks et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.14266
Gender relations and decision-making on climate change adaptation in rural East African households: A qualitative systematic review, Niemann et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000279
How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models, Schewel et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1189125
Risk Governance of Climate-Related Hazards in Longyearbyen, Svalbard: A Review of Risk Governance Approaches and Knowledge Gaps, Johannessen et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100585
Understanding transformative capacity to boost urban climate adaptation: A Semi-Systematic Literature Review, Sousa et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01940-2
Climate change impacts on human health
Genetically based variation in heat tolerance covaries with climate in a globally important disease vector, Orlinick et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2023.1248673
Population Exposure Changes to Mean and Extreme Climate Events Over Pakistan and Associated Mechanisms, Saleem et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2023gh000887
Climate change impacts on human culture
Concealing, naming, or tackling inequalities? Art, culture and (In)justice at COP27, Burchert, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2023.2298805
Other
Climatology, sources, and transport characteristics of observed water vapor extrema in the lower stratosphere, Tinney & Homeyer Homeyer, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-14375-2023
The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers, Wille et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0175.1
The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part II: Impacts on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Wille et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0176.1
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Assumptions and contradictions shape public engagement on climate change, Murunga et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01904-0
Editorial: Food-energy-water systems: achieving climate resilience and sustainable development in the 21st century, Vörösmarty et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1334892
Empowering Early Career Polar Researchers in a changing climate: Challenges and solutions, Moraru et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000332
Hoping for better, (editiorial), Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1016/j.pop.2018.03.002
Justice considerations in climate research, Zimm et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01869-0
Local climate services for all, courtesy of large language models, Koldunov & Jung, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01199-1
Misconceptions of the marine biological carbon pump in a changing climate: Thinking outside the “export” box, Frenger et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17124
Book reviews
Data-driven hope for the planet, Ellis, Science 10.1126/science.adl5466
How many species will Earth lose to climate change?, Wiens & Zelinka, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17125
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Fall 2023 Solar Industry Update, Feldman et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory
2023 PV installations increased significantly (y/y) in China (153%) and Germany (102%), and to a lesser extent the United States (34%). Australian and Indian first PV installations in H1 2023 shrank modestly, y/y. EIA projects the percentage of U.S. electric capacity additions from solar will grow from 45% in 2022 (17 GWac) to 56% in 2023 (31 GWac) and 62% (41 GWac) in 2024. • The United States installed 11.2 GWac (11.8 GWdc) of PV in H1 2023—its largest H1 ever—up 44% y/y. The United States installed approximately 7.7 GWh (2.5 GWac) of energy storage onto the electric grid in H1 2023, +32% (+8%) y/y, as a result of growth in all sectors.
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Greenwashing and sustainable finance: an approach anchored in the philosophy of science, by Lagoarde-Ségot, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, presents an interesting evaluation of the ways that a business-finance focus, a belief that economic interests are the most important consideration, can be understood to systemically create harmfully distorted perceptions of reality, perceptions that really have no future (like the evaluations that significantly discounted the future costs of climate change, and did not fully account for the future impacts, to excuse more economic benefit obtained today by being more harmful).
It is fundamentally flawed to consider ‘economic financial interests’ to be more important, to govern over, social or environmental concerns (especially having economic finance interests govern over concerns that can be seen to be ‘costs to the economic system without appearing to maximize the benefit for investors’)
A related flaw is to be focused on what can be empirically observed and measured like:
The following quote is part of the Introduction
This paper employs a critical realist lens and contends that the mainstream finance paradigm is based on several flawed hypotheses regarding the nature of reality. These inaccurate ontological hypotheses frame controversies in finance within a specific worldview by shaping and limiting the range of acceptable questions, acceptable methods, and acceptable answers. They have far-reaching implications for greenwashing, to the extent that corporate and financial executives, as well as policymakers, see the world through the distorted lens of financial theory. For instance, corporate and financial executives typically consider environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings as another causal variable in their quest for short-term financial ‘materiality’ rather than adjusting their mission to tackle the social and ecological crisis. Similarly, sustainable finance policies lead to a further expansion of financial markets (through the increased commodification and financialization of nature) rather than embedding capital accumulation within planetary and social justice boundaries.
The last paragraph in the section headed “The (social) world is not flat” includes the following:
The science of business administration, where theories function as instruments of managerial control, clearly belongs to such a structure 5••, 25, 26. In particular, the mainstream belief that unfettered financial markets could reveal the ‘fundamental’ (monetary) value of the Earth System has accelerated the financialization of nature.
And the conclusion is as follows (highlighting the need for systemic change to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals – which requires ‘no successful greenwashing’.
Conclusions
This paper has made two claims. First, the growth of green financial markets2 in recent years does not necessarily imply that the economy will become ‘greener’. Green finance does not protect global commons but accelerates the inclusion of nature and society within financial logic, narratives, and interests. The mainstream finance paradigm is a powerful structure that accelerates the financialization of nature by providing a ‘software of the mind’ to corporate and finance actors as well as regulators. Senior professional investors indeed typically consider ESG simply as ‘another data set’ 1, 45, 46, 47.
As pointed out by Chiapello [49], the ‘green’ financial industry has been pushed by so many policy and corporate actors as a solution precisely because of its subordination to the mainstream paradigm. This entails considering nature and society as the next frontier for capital market development, when the current context requires us to turn the order upside-down and re-embed global capitalism within planetary boundaries [44].
Second, we have argued that the mainstream’s empirical and reductionist biases prevent financial economists from addressing sustainability issues, with unfortunate consequences for the design of sustainability policies. It follows that placing the financial sector under the control of society to hit the Sustainable Development Goals would imply a scientific revolution in finance. In this process, we contend that critical realism could provide a consistent metatheoretical alternative to the mainstream paradigm.
By approaching their study object through the lens of critical realism, progressive financial economists could inquire into the real processes by which global finance shapes social and ecological conditions; and gain a fresh understanding of how the latter retroact against economies and societies, at various scales. This research agenda project should then pave the way to identifying new global collective institutions and binding rules ensuring global prosperity and resilience in the 21st century.
I recommend this paper....
World scientists’ warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00368504231201372?utm_source=nationaltribune&utm_medium=nationaltribune&utm_campaign=news
Zekie Hausfather posted a summary of 2023 on Carbon Brief today. He put a summary of the temperature record on Climate Brink. The Carbon Brief article contaiind more data about sea level rise, climate records, sea ice and glacier melt and a few other things. They are written for lay people to read. They are very informative. The Climate Brink article is shorter.
He says that the reason that 2023 was so not is not known. The predictions of the 2023 temperature from a year ago were much too low. He says he thinks the volcano and aerosols have too small an effect to account for 2023 but so does a typical El Nino. We will have to wait for more data to find out the scientific reason.
The Climate Brink article would make a good OP here at SkS. The Carbon Brief article is longer than OPs usually are here.
I found that this article by Dr. Robert Rohde at Berkeley Earth to include some factors that Zeke did not speak to or emphasize. In particular, the anomalous warming/natural variability of the North Atlantic.
"We believe that natural variability in the North Atlantic and other regions is largely responsible for the surge in global mean temperatures in the middle of the year, well before the 2023 El Niño event had gathered strength."
This observation is consistent with an earlier report/article by Dr. Nicolas Gruber, Ref.
gerontocrat’s recommended reading (comment @2) is informative and enlightening.
It is well aligned with the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals and the Green-washing item I commented on @1.
The Introduction opens with:
Modern humans and millions of other species face an unprecedented number of existential threats due to anthropogenic impacts exceeding our planet’s boundaries.1 We are in dangerous territory with instability in the known realms of biosphere integrity, land system change and novel entities such as plastics and synthetic toxins, climate change, freshwater change and biogeochemical flows.
Considering the dynamic, closed and interconnected nature of Earth’s systems together, these threats pose an increasingly catastrophic risk to all complex life on Earth. Many scientists privately believe it to be already too late to avoid the tipping points that will trigger devastating and irreversible feedback loops.2
It is increasingly acknowledged that all of these threats are symptoms of anthropogenic ecological overshoot. Overshoot is defined as the human consumption of natural resources at rates faster than they can be replenished, and entropic waste production in excess of the Earth’s assimilative and processing capacity.
And the opening of the Conclusion is:
In summary, the evidence indicates that anthropogenic ecological overshoot stems from a crisis of maladaptive human behaviours. While the behaviours generating overshoot were once adaptive for H. sapiens, they have been distorted and extended to the point where they now threaten the fabric of complex life on Earth. Simply, we are trapped in a system built to encourage growth and appetites that will end us.
And the Conclusion includes the following:
The current emphasis for overshoot intervention is resource intensive (e.g. the global transition to renewable energy) and single-symptom focused. Indeed, most mainstream attention and investment is directed towards mitigating and adapting to climate change. Even if this narrow intervention is successful, it will not resolve the meta-crisis of ecological overshoot, in fact, with many of the current resource-intensive interventions, it is likely to make matters worse. Psychological interventions are likely to prove far less resource-intensive and more effective than physical ones.
I bolded the last item because it is a key point. The paper indicates that efforts to raise awareness and improve understanding of the problem, promoting the science, are not bringing about the required rate and magnitude of changes of behaviour.
The section immediately preceding the Conclusion is titled: Directing and policing widespread behaviour manipulation. It is brief and is quoted below:
Behavioural manipulation has been intentionally used for nefarious purposes before, and as we’ve just explored, has played a critical role in the creation of the behavioural crisis and consequential ecological overshoot. Eco-centric behaviour is the heart of any sustainable future humanity might wish to achieve. Moreover, we are at a crossroads,with three paths ahead:
This raises ethical questions, for example, who is worthy of wielding such power? At present, the answer is anyone with the necessary influence or financial means to exploit it. However, we should not entrust this to any individual human, company, government or industry. Instead, any continued use of widespread behavioural manipulation should be firmly bound by, and anchored within a framework built upon the laws of the natural world, as well as the science on limits to growth.
We urgently call for increased interdisciplinary work to be carried out in directing, understanding and policing widespread behaviour manipulation.
What the authors are calling for will require ‘policing of political marketing’. That will require ending the legitimacy of demands for the freedom of competitors for leadership and higher status to claim whatever they want as the justification for doing whatever they please, with popularity and profit being the measures of acceptability.
That ‘systemic change of what is allowed in competition for status and leadership' is essential for humanity to have a lasting improving future on this one, and potentially only, amazing planet that humans could have a long future on.