Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #1 2025
Posted on 2 January 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Why Misinformation Must Not Be Ignored, Ecker et al., American Psychologist:
Recent academic debate has seen the emergence of the claim that misinformation is not a significant societal problem. We argue that the arguments used to support this minimizing position are flawed, particularly if interpreted (e.g., by policymakers or the public) as suggesting that misinformation can be safely ignored. Here, we rebut the two main claims, namely that misinformation is not of substantive concern (a) due to its low incidence and (b) because it has no causal influence on notable political or behavioral outcomes. Through a critical review of the current literature, we demonstrate that (a) the prevalence of misinformation is nonnegligible if reasonably inclusive definitions are applied and that (b) misinformation has causal impacts on important beliefs and behaviors. Both scholars and policymakers should therefore continue to take misinformation seriously.
Recent ice melt above a mantle plume track is accelerating the uplift of Southeast Greenland, Weerdesteijn & Conrad Conrad, Communications Earth & Environment:
Around the periphery of the Greenland ice sheet, satellite-based observations of ground uplift record Earth’s response to past and recent unloading of Greenland’s ice mass. On the southeast coast, near the Kangerlussuaq glacier, rapid uplift exceeding 12 mm/yr cannot be explained using current layered Earth deformation models. Here we find that 3D models with a weakened Earth structure, consistent with the passage of Greenland over the Iceland plume, can explain the rapid uplift of Southeast Greenland. This uplift is dominated by a viscous response that is accelerated by the low viscosities of the hot plume track. Recent mass loss, occurring during the last millennium and especially within the past few decades, drives most of the uplift. Holocene indicators recorded similarly rapid uplift following deglaciation that ended the last ice age. Such rapid uplift, occurring beneath marine terminating glaciers, can affect the future stability of entire ice catchment areas and will become increasingly important in the near future as deglaciation accelerates.
An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance has long been a challenge, primarily due to uncertainties that dwarf the energy flux changes induced and a lack of precise observational data at the surface. We have employed the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, integrating it with recent developments in surface solar radiation observational data, to refine the ensemble of CMIP6 model outputs. This has resulted in an enhanced estimation of Surface Earth System Energy Imbalance (EEI) changes since the late 19th century. Our findings show that CMIP6 model outputs, constrained by this observational data, reflect changes in energy imbalance consistent with observations in Ocean Heat Content (OHC), offering a narrower uncertainty range at the 95% confidence level than previous estimates. Observing the EEI series, dominated by changes due to external forcing, we note a relative stability (0.22 Wm−2) over the past half-century, but with a intensification (reaching 0.80 Wm−2) in the mid to late 1990s, indicating an escalation in the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change, which provides another independent confirmation of what recent studies have shown.
A mid-20th century stratigraphical Anthropocene is recognisable in the birth-area of the industrial revolution, Sellers et al., The Anthropocene Review:
The formalisation of the Anthropocene as a subdivision of the Geological Time Scale has been under debate. Its stratigraphic boundary has been proposed as a precise Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) in the mid-20th century, but it is part of an episode of human-induced changes to the Earth System that have unfolded over millennia. Here we attempt to identify stratigraphical patterns of the Anthropocene from a previously well studied lake sedimentary archive from the English Midlands, located in one of the most heavily human-modified landscapes in the UK, and the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution. Our analysis is predicated on the sedimentary succession of Groby Pool, a small lake situated to the immediate northwest of Leicester. We have found that whilst proxy signals for biotic change are indicative of significant landscape and consequent ecological changes prior to the 20th century, the signal from radiogenic fallout and rapid increase in spheroidal carbonaceous particles indicative of fossil-fuel combustion yield a clear mid and later 20th century stratigraphical signature that corresponds with the Great Acceleration of the post-WWII period. We therefore demonstrate clear stratigraphical signatures in the oldest Industrial Revolution landscape on Earth that are consistent with a mid-20th century start point for the Anthropocene.
From this week's government/NGO section:
The Risks of Climate Change to the United States in the 21st Century, Nielsen et al., Congressional Budget Office
The economic effects of climate change will depend on the extent of its physical effects. Those effects are highly uncertain. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that by 2100, there is a 5 percent chance that average global temperatures will be more than 4 degrees Celsius (4°C) warmer than they were in the latter half of the 19th century and an equal chance that they will have risen by less than 2°C. In the United States, sea levels have a 5 percent chance of rising by about 4 feet or more by 2100 and an equal chance of rising by about 2 feet or less. Damage from natural disasters is also expected to increase. The uncertainty of climate change’s physical effects implies a wide range of possible economic consequences, ranging from benign to catastrophic. In this report, CBO focuses, where possible, on the 5th and 95th percentiles of the distributions of potential outcomes. The authors examine the possible economic effects of climate change on gross domestic product (GDP), real estate markets, and other areas that influence the economy and the federal budget.
When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather In 2024, Otto et al., World Weather Attribution
Every December, we’re asked if it was a bad year for extreme weather. The answer is increasingly clear: yes. The authors look back at 2024, highlighting the devastating consequences of climate change and exposing our collective unpreparedness again and again in the 29 extremes that were studied in depth. Heatwaves continue to claim lives, floods devastate communities, and droughts obliterate crops and livelihoods. Although El Niño made some extreme weather events more likely, its influence on extreme weather was often over-emphasised.
Counting the Cost 2024. A year of climate breakdown, Joe Ware and Oliver Pearce, Christian Aid
This year's Counting the Cost report reveals the shocking cost of the world's worst claimed disasters. These climate disasters serve as a stark warning of what lies ahead if we fail to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. They also highlight the critical need for adaptation measures, particularly in the Global South, where resources are limited, and communities face heightened vulnerability to extreme weather events. The analysis list features disasters featured in the news from all over the world – from U.S. storms like Hurricane Milton and Helene, to the China, Bavaria, and Valencia floods.
93 articles in 44 journals by 646 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55175-0
Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7
Novel dynamical indices for the variations of the South Asia high in a warming climate, Ma et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107901
Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown, Su et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x
Tropical High Cloud Feedback Relationships to Climate Sensitivity, Dawson & Schiro, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0218.1
Observations of climate change, effects
20th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442
Characteristics of Marine Heat Extreme Evolution in the Northern Indian Ocean, Gupta et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8734
Mediterranean marine heatwaves intensify in the presence of concurrent atmospheric heatwaves, Pastor et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01982-8
Recent ice melt above a mantle plume track is accelerating the uplift of Southeast Greenland, Weerdesteijn & Conrad Conrad, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01968-6
Weakening of subsurface ocean temperature seasonality over the past four decades, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01986-4
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
A Climate Simulation Dataset From 11 Overriding Experiments for Analysing Cloud and Air–Sea Feedbacks, Guo et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.286
An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
Cause and Characteristics of Changes in Mesoscale Convective Systems within a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model, Wallace et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0251.1
Global changes in extreme tropical cyclone wave heights under projected future climate conditions, Grossmann-Matheson et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-82892-9
Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model, Guo et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54946-z
More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2
Multi-Model Projection of Climate Extremes under 1.5°C–4°C Global Warming Levels across Iran, Najafi et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8740
Widening of Wind Stress Anomalies Amplifies ENSO in a Warming Climate, Stuivenvolt-Allen et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0126.1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 Wind Fields for Robust Forcing in Indian Ocean Wave Climate Studies, Sreejith et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8744
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Evaluating CMIP6 Global Climate Models Performances Over Nigeria: An Integrated Approach, Shiru et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8739
Insights into Cloud Albedo Biases from a Cloud-Controlling Factor Framework, Blanco et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0260.1
Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate, Arriolabengoa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5
Cryosphere & climate change
Elevation-dependent shift of landslide activity in mountain permafrost regions of the Qilian Mountains, Chen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.11.003
Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread, Luo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112323
Sea level & climate change
Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene, Creel et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54535-0
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Nanoparticles of iridium and other platinum group elements identified in Chicxulub asteroid impact spherules – Implications for impact winter and profound climate change, Vajda et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104659
Response of atmospheric CO2 changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Assessing the impact of extreme climate events on European gross primary production, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110374
Diversity and future perspectives of Mediterranean deep-water oyster reefs, Castellan et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-77641-x
Even protected seaweeds must face a warming ocean: Sea surface temperatures trigger tissue bleaching and breakdown in the unique giant Irish moss (Chondrus crispus), Gibbons et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106907
High- and low-temperature stress responses of Porites lutea from the relatively high-latitude region of the South China Sea, Huang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106858
Long-term warming and acidification interaction drives plastic acclimation in the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106901
Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century, Messmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01731-x
Mortality Patterns and Recovery Challenges in Millepora alcicornis after mass bleaching event on Northeast Brazilian Reefs, Vidal et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106864
Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone, Li et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2024.1471164
Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855
Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Fertility of Aquatic Animals Using a Meta-Analytic Approach, Chatten et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70054
Recurrent marine heatwaves compromise the reproduction success and long-term viability of shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian Eunicella singularis, Sarda et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106822
The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO2 and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853
Trait-Based Indicators of Marine Communities' Sensitivity to Climate Change and Fishing, Polo et al., Diversity and Distributions 10.1111/ddi.13959
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Adding labile carbon to peatland soils triggers deep carbon breakdown, Rajakaruna et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01954-y
An upscaling of methane emissions from Swedish flooded land, Peacock et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2445254
Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels, Maxwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01795-9
Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, El Masri & Xiao, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008305
Environmental Conditions Modulate Warming Effects on Plant Litter Decomposition Globally, Schwieger et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.70026
GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO2 recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598
Interactive effects of management and temperature anomalies on CO2 fluxes recorded over 18 years in a temperate upland grassland system, Winck et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110343
Nitrogen Deposition Weakens Soil Carbon Control of Nitrogen Dynamics Across the Contiguous United States, Nieland et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70016
Predicting CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their seasonal variations in a subarctic wetland under two shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110359
Recent methane surges reveal heightened emissions from tropical inundated areas, Lin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55266-y
Sea Ice Modulates Air–Sea Methane Flux in the Southern Ocean, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112073
Seasonal CO2 amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Study of atmospheric CH4, CO2 and N2O at Waliguan WMO/GAW global station: Time series trend, seasonal variation, and attribution analysis association with meteorological factors, Wei et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120994
The presence of the Tibetan Plateau lowers atmospheric CO2 levels via the Atlantic-Pacific carbon seesaw, Du et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104681
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Advancing the frontiers of CO2 geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906
Decarbonization
Scaling solar photovoltaics into the grid: Challenges and opportunities in Germany, Gómez-Calvet & Gómez-Calvet, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103882
Geoengineering climate
Impacts of Solar Geoengineering on Projected Climate of South Asia, Hussain et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8695
Question-Led Innovation: Public priorities for enhanced weathering research in Malaysia, Cox et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103977
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Agroforestry as Climate Change Adaptation: The Case of Cocoa Farming in Ghana, Sapril, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2445545
Forest fertilization transiently increases soil CO2 efflux in young Norway spruce stands in Sweden, Håkansson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110287
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Agriculture: Pathways to Sustainable Reductions, Li et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70015
Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Projecting impacts of extreme weather events on crop yields using LASSO regression, Heilemann et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100738
Rethinking Crop Rotational Benefits Under Climate Change: Beyond the Growing Season, Smith et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70012
Seasonal patterns of CO2 exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil, Bianchini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110324
The biophysical effects of phenological shifts impact land surface temperature for corn expansion in Northeastern China, Ma et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110373
The vulnerability of winter wheat in Germany to air temperature, precipitation or compound extremes is shaped by soil-climate zones, Becker et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110322
Wetter, but not wet enough—Limited greenhouse gas mitigation effects of subsurface irrigation and blocked ditches in an intensively cultivated grassland on fen peat, Heller et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110367
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Assessment of Droughts and Floods During the Indian Summer Monsoon Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Historical and Future Simulations, George et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8729
Historical and future projections of southwest monsoon rainfall extremes: a comprehensive study using CMIP6 simulations, Varikoden et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107870
Interdecadal shifts and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies of heavy precipitation during the warm-season in the Upper Yellow River Basin over the past 40 years, Ye et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107801
Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes Across the Mississippi River Basin Using the NASA Global Daily Downscaled Datasets NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, Talchabhadel et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8748
Climate change economics
Climate finance and new multilateral development banks: approaching co-productive dynamics?, Zeng, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2442004
Perceived climate risk and stock prices: An empirical analysis of pricing effects, Ben Ameur et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.17683
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes and product use are a non-ignorable factor in China’ s mitigation, Hu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01951-1
Carbon literacy, switching cost, and consumer choice: Evidence from the new energy vehicle purchase analysis, Liu & Yang Yang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114478
City climate action plans through the lens of the food-energy-water nexus, Mounir & Chini, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ada0d9
Embracing sufficiency to accelerate the energy transition, Dablander et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103907
Who gets to imagine a fossil-free future? Ontological politics of knowledge-action co-production in the Swedish just transition, Sokolova, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2443884
“Here comes the sun”: Determinants of solar farm planning at local authority level in England, Hussain et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103916
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Addressing social equity in coastal climate adaptation planning: A case study of Norfolk, Virginia, Michel et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000516
Stabilising CO2 concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation, Lu & Tambakis, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-79437-5
The Complex Task of Evaluating the Institutional Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change at Local Government Level: A Study of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, Gadu et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70003
“Are you prepared or not?”: An intersectional analysis of a community-engaged climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning process with Tsáá? Ché Ne Dane, Avitzur, Neurology Now Open Access 10.1097/01.nnn.0000424230.43366.7b
Climate change impacts on human health
Calibrating the UTCI scale for hot and humid climates through comprehensive year-round field surveys to improve the adaptability, Chen et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102267
Changes in human-perceived temperature extremes and associated population exposure across China, Chen et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107896
Climate change & geopolitics
Geopolitics of renewable energy development: The role of energy metals, Lin & Zhang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114482
Other
A mid-20th century stratigraphical Anthropocene is recognisable in the birth-area of the industrial revolution, Sellers et al., The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196241306407
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Why Misinformation Must Not Be Ignored, Ecker et al., American Psychologist Open Access 10.1037/amp0001448
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Unheeded Warnings: Forest Biomass Threats to Tropical Forests in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, Earth Insight, Auriga Nusantara, Forest Watch Indonesia, Solutions for Our Climate, Trend Asia, and Mighty Earth
Burning wood in biomass power or co-fired in coal power plants could bring Indonesia’s forests to an irrever\nwind into biomass energy threaten forests and biodiversity across Southeast Asia. Threats to Indonesia’s forests from co-firing coal plants include energy plantation forest concessions, and, wood chip and pellet mill haul zones. The country’s forests also face unprecedented threats from the industrial scale projected for biomass demand. Burning wood for energy in Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea is a threat to bio-diverse tropical forests across Southeast Asia.
A Climate of Opportunity. ESG in a Second Trump Administration, Veerless
Voters in 19 states, including conservative regions like Louisiana and Montana, advanced ESG initiatives on environmental protections, anti-discrimination policies, and marriage equality. Despite pushback against “woke culture,” state elections confirmed that ESG values resonate with a broad spectrum of Americans. The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) raises the bar for transparency, requiring emissions data, sustainability plans, and measurable ESG progress. By 2025, CS3D and the EU Taxonomy will align with CSRD, leaving non-compliant companies facing fines, market restrictions, and reputational damage. Gen Z and Millennials are driving corporate sustainability, with over 90% of Gen Z and 60% of Millennials choosing or paying more for sustainable products. Even among conservatives, 60% of Trump voters under 30 express concern about climate change in their communities, highlighting a generational shift that companies can’t ignore.
Civic Activism in an Intensifying Climate Crisis, Erin Jones and Richard Youngs, editors, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
It would be impossible to understand the trajectory of two of the defining issues of the past half-century—the global struggles for democracy and economic justice—without a close examination of the role of civic activism. Civic activism is also critical to a third defining issue of our time, one that is unfolding inexorably day by day, month by month, and year by year—the climate crisis. This innovative, wide-reaching compilation takes stock of the present and near-term future state of climate activism. It ranges beyond the European and North American contexts to look at Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and other regions, alternating between regional and thematic perspectives and narrower, snapshot case studies. It considers tactics and methods, with consideration of problems as well as progress. The compilation threads a useful path between unrealistic optimism and unnecessary pessimism, conveying to the reader a sense of what it will take for climate activism to meet this critical moment, leaving open the question of whether it is likely to do so.
The Risks of Climate Change to the United States in the 21st Century, Nielsen et al., Congressional Budget Office
The economic effects of climate change will depend on the extent of its physical effects. Those effects are highly uncertain. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that by 2100, there is a 5 percent chance that average global temperatures will be more than 4 degrees Celsius (4°C) warmer than they were in the latter half of the 19th century and an equal chance that they will have risen by less than 2°C. In the United States, sea levels have a 5 percent chance of rising by about 4 feet or more by 2100 and an equal chance of rising by about 2 feet or less. Damage from natural disasters is also expected to increase. The uncertainty of climate change’s physical effects implies a wide range of possible economic consequences, ranging from benign to catastrophic. In this report, CBO focuses, where possible, on the 5th and 95th percentiles of the distributions of potential outcomes. The authors examine the possible economic effects of climate change on gross domestic product (GDP), real estate markets, and other areas that influence the economy and the federal budget.
Climate Change: Improved Data and Performance Management Would Strengthen U.S. Support to the Indo-Pacific, Love-Grayer et al., Government Accountability Organization
Countries and U.S. territories in the Indo-Pacific region are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, coral reef bleaching, and drought. GAO was asked to review federal agencies' assistance to address climate risks to countries and U.S. territories in the region. Also, the Inflation Reduction Act asked GAO to oversee the use of these funds. The authors examine (1) the assistance federal agencies have provided to selected countries and U.S. territories in the Indo-Pacific; (2) the extent to which selected agencies have practices to monitor the performance of such assistance in selected locations; and (3) any challenges affecting the provision and use of such assistance and agency efforts to address them. The authors analyzed funding data and documentation of agency activities and monitoring mechanisms; interviewed agency, territorial, foreign government, and activity officials; and conducted site visits to Palau, Papua New Guinea, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam. GAO also interviewed officials in Bangladesh and Fiji.
Building Resilient Cities: Adapting to the Health Impacts of Climate Change, Mathur et al., Observer Research Foundation
Urban populations and city dwellers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, are especially susceptible to the health impacts of climate change. Urban areas, with their dense populations, are more affected by extreme weather events and often have large populations living in insecure informal settlements where access to basic necessities like water, sanitation, and healthcare is limited. Even in high-income countries, cities face multiple non-climate-related stresses, such as aging infrastructure, poor land use planning, and political challenges. The way cities are constructed—reducing vegetation, covering large areas with impermeable surfaces, and obstructing natural drainage—exacerbates the vulnerability of urban populations to climate change, making them more prone to heat waves, heavy precipitation, and other extreme weather events. There is an urgent need for better urban-focused research and the implementation of strategies to address these vulnerabilities, particularly as urban populations continue to grow. Without such actions, the health impacts of climate change in cities are likely to become even more severe. In three sections comprising nine essays, this volume attempts to examine and address these issues.
Financing Climate Adaptation in Africa, Iva Detelinova, Observer Research Foundation
The African continent faces escalating climate threats, with rising temperatures, sea-level rise, water stress, and extreme weather events causing widespread negative consequences. The author argues for the need to build a business case for greater adaptation investment in Africa. Climate change is already causing significant economic losses, with African countries losing 2-5 percent of GDP annually, while adaptation investments could yield returns of US$2-10 for every dollar spent. The author examines emerging opportunities in adaptation finance, driven by changing consumer preferences and growing demand for climate-resilient products. Combining domestic resources with innovative financial mechanisms and growing climate awareness could help African countries transition towards more climate-resilient economies.
Energy justice through policy: A comparison of US and EU approaches, Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek and Marco Siddi, The Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Policymakers have come to consensus on the need to prioritize the low-carbon energy transition. But this comes with costs and questions of fairness. Therefore, policymakers also see transition initiatives as an opportunity to ensure more just outcomes. This has been dubbed the “just energy transition”. But what does a just energy transition mean in practice? How do policymakers bridge the gap between assessed needs – injustices – and policies that correspond to those needs? The authors evaluate and compare EU and US policies aimed at the energy transition and energy justice. It considers the extent to which the European Green Deal (EGD) and the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) attempt to enshrine “energy justice”, as well as the various understandings of the term from the distribution, recognition, and procedure points. The authors show that the EGD is more specific in terms of procedural justice, whereas the IRA includes more explicit clauses related to recognition-based justice. Both highlight elements of distributional justice.
Navigating Clean Energy Industries and Rivalry in Decarbonisation, Dan Marks and James Henderson, The Royal United Services Institute
In this research paper, the authors address a series of questions, including how to ensure the security of production networks while simultaneously decarbonising rapidly and affordably, promoting innovation and maximising local economic benefits. They argue against protectionism and 'friend-shoring' in favour of policies which emphasise the importance of relatively open commodity and capital markets, fair competition, and diversification. The authors conclude that the answer to China’s current overwhelming scale is likely to be increased trade and investment in the most competitive locations for different stages of production, and that environmental and social regulations should be welcomed, but should not serve to exclude challenging jurisdictions from the supply chain by being overly prescriptive or introducing prohibitive costs on suppliers.
Banking on Climate: Mortgage Lending for Decarbonization, New York City Economic Development Corporation, NYU Stern’s Center for Sustainable Business, and the Chao-Hon Chen Institute for Global Real Estate
The authors summarize their research and synthesize recommendations and feedback from participants in the Building Decarbonization Finance Task Force—a group of mortgage lenders, building owners, policymakers, and nonprofits convened from January to June 2024 to discuss opportunities and challenges that the US mortgage industry faces as a result of efforts to decarbonize the built environment.
When Risks Become Reality: Extreme Weather In 2024, Otto et al., World Weather Attribution
Every December, we’re asked if it was a bad year for extreme weather. The answer is increasingly clear: yes. The authors look back at 2024, highlighting the devastating consequences of climate change and exposing our collective unpreparedness again and again in the 29 extremes that were studied in depth. Heatwaves continue to claim lives, floods devastate communities, and droughts obliterate crops and livelihoods. Although El Niño made some extreme weather events more likely, its influence on extreme weather was often over-emphasised.
3 Degrees More. The Impending Hot Season and How Nature Can Help Us Prevent It, Editor, Klaus Wiegandt, Springer Nature Switzerland AG
This open-access book describes in detail what life on this planet would be like if its average surface temperature were to rise 3 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level. On this basis, the book argues that it is imperative to keep this temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius. It then lays out a detailed plan of what politically feasible, cost-effective measures should now be taken to achieve this goal. In this context, the book provides detailed discussions of climate finance, climate education, and nature-based solutions. The book has been translated into English from the original German version published in 2022 and contains an original foreword and preface.
BRASIL EM TRANSFORMAÇÃO: 2024: O ANO MAIS QUENTE DA HISTÓRIA O IMPACTO DA CRISE CLIMÁTICA (Brazil in Transformation: 2024: The Hottest Year in History. The Impact of the Climate Crisis), Aline Sbizera Martinez and Ronaldo Adriano Christofoletti, Alianca Brasileira Pela Cultura Oceanica (Brazilian Alliance for Oceanic Culture)
O ano de 2024 está consolidado como o mais quente da história desde o período pré-industrial (1850-1900). Pela primeira vez, a média global da temperatura do ar excedeu 1,5 °C acima desse marco histórico durante 12 meses consecutivos. Este limite, considerado crítico pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), estava previsto para ser atingido apenas no final desta década, mas foi antecipado pelos rápidos \nThe year 2024 is set to be the hottest in history since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). For the first time, the global average air temperature exceeded 1.5 °C above this historical milestone for 12 consecutive months. This threshold, considered critical by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was expected to be reached only at the end of this decade but was brought forward by the rapid impacts of the climate crisis.
Counting the Cost 2024. A year of climate breakdown, Joe Ware and Oliver Pearce, Christian Aid
This year's Counting the Cost report reveals the shocking cost of the world's worst claimed disasters. These climate disasters serve as a stark warning of what lies ahead if we fail to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. They also highlight the critical need for adaptation measures, particularly in the Global South, where resources are limited, and communities face heightened vulnerability to extreme weather events. The analysis list features disasters featured in the news from all over the world – from U.S. storms like Hurricane Milton and Helene, to the China, Bavaria, and Valencia floods.
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The first Open Notable, Why Misinformation Must Not Be Ignored, Ecker et al., American Psychologist:, is an informative presentation that should not have needed to be made.
It can be summarized by saying that: Many of the attempts to argue that misinformation can be ignored rely on the ability to successfully produce misunderstandings through the presentation of misinformation.
It is hard to deny that misunderstandings due to misleading presentations of misinformation lead to ‘avoidable conflicts of interest and can produce harmful results’.
The following quote from the article, from the section addressing ‘Argument 2: Misinformation Has No Significant Causal Impacts’, says it very well:
“The position that misinformation has no meaningful causal effects imagines that substantial segments of a population could form a false belief, such as the conviction that vaccines cause autism, either without being exposed specifically to the corresponding false claim or despite the exposure having no discernible consequence (Poland & Spier, 2010). On this view, the violent insurrection on January 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol and the partisan gap in COVID-19 vaccination rates between Republicans and Democrats—which is now associated with a widening gap in mortality rates (Wallace et al., 2022)—were unrelated to misinformation about a “stolen” election or the safety of vaccines (see Bolsen & Palm, 2022; M. H. Graham & Yair, 2024; Henricksen & Betz, 2022; Lee et al., 2022; Riley, 2022). This seems implausible (e.g., court documents suggested that the views of many of those arrested after the insurrection were shaped by election-fraud misinformation; McCarthy, 2021). To provide additional examples, the view further implies that multiple lynchings of alleged child abductors in India in 2018 were not causally related to the false abduction rumors spreading on WhatsApp locally at the time (Gupta & Wilkinson, 2018) or that the 2024 anti-immigration riots in the United Kingdom that mainly targeted Muslims were unrelated to the misinformation about the religion of the alleged perpetrator of the Southport child murders (Holden & Smout, 2024). A strict interpretation of the “no causal impact” argument would even suggest that a counterfactual world with no misinformation would look just the same as the world we find ourselves in, and the argument also implies that information consumption or exposure in general has no causal impacts. This is not a credible position.”