Posted on 27 November 2019 by Doug Bostrom

Wildfires and attribution from the scientific and public perspectives

Two papers (happily both open-access) come at wildfires and climate from more or less opposite directions.  In a model of scientific circumspection in its most virtuous form, Lewis et al study conducive factors for 2018 wildfires in Queensland, Australia, in Deconstructing factors contributing to the 2018 fire weather in Queensland, Australia. Julie Lewis brings us Connecting Extreme Heat Events to Climate Change: Media Coverage of Heat Waves and Wildfires. One paper helps to inform understanding of the other; while the urgency of climate change encourages us to describe attribution to the public whenever and wherever possible, tightly coupled attribution from a scientific perspective while possible and productive is very difficult. Maintaining credibility is key in public communications and Lewis' paper demonstrates the fine sensitivity required of public communicators in order to hew to scientific guidance.  

70 Articles:

Physical science of global warming

Mechanisms of Future Predicted Changes in the Zonal Mean Mid-Latitude Circulation (open access)

Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks Operating in the Climate System (open access)

Fixed anvil temperature feedback - positive, zero or negative?

Sensitivity of surface temperature to oceanic forcing via q-Flux Green’s function experiments. Part III: asymmetric response to warming and cooling

Changes in lake area in the Inner Mongolian Plateau under climate change: the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Arctic sea ice

Observations of global warming and effects

Runoff dynamics of the upper Selenge basin, a major water source for Lake Baikal, under a warming climate

Changes in circulation and particle scavenging in the Amerasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean over the last three decades inferred from the water column distribution of geochemical tracers

The possible transition from glacial surge to ice stream on Vavilov Ice Cap

Instantaneous Antarctic ice?sheet mass loss driven by thinning ice shelves

Deconstructing factors contributing to the 2018 fire weather in Queensland, Australia (open access)

Precipitation Extremes: Trends and Relationships with Average Precipitation and Precipitable Water in the Contiguous United States

Statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume anomaly: identifying predictors and optimal sampling locations (open access)

Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – progress since AR5 and challenges EARTH SCIENCE REVIEWS invited review/synthesis paper 30 September 2019 revised version

Arctic rock coast responses under a changing climate

Construction of a climate data record of sea surface temperature from passive microwave measurements

Trends in cyclones in the high?latitude North Atlantic during 1979–2016

Trends in downward surface shortwave radiation from Multi?source data over China during 1984?2015

Climate change decreases the cooling effect from postfire albedo in boreal North America

Modeling global warming & global warming effects

The impact of a stochastic parameterization scheme on climate sensitivity in EC?Earth

Transient Response of MJO Precipitation and Circulation to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

Contrasting hydroclimatic model?data agreements over the Nordic?Arctic region (open access)

Efficacy of climate forcings in PDRMIP models

Global Variability of Simulated and Observed Vegetation Growing Season

Equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by equilibrating climate models

What causes the AMOC to weaken in CMIP5?

Atmospheric Circulation Response to Short-Term Arctic Warming in an Idealized Model

Regional climate models: 30?years of dynamical downscaling

Indo-Pacific Climate Modes in Warming Climate: Consensus and Uncertainty Across Model Projections (open access)

A multi-model, multi-scenario, and multi-domain analysis of regional climate projections for the Mediterranean (open access)

Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

The aridity Index under global warming

Humans dealing with our global warming

Recommendation system for climate informed urban design under model uncertainty

Integration of thermochemical water splitting with CO2 direct air capture (open access)

Towards better informed adaptation strategies: co-designing climate change impact maps for Austrian regions (open access)

>>>>> Teacher perceptions of state standards and climate change pedagogy: opportunities and barriers for implementing consensus-informed instruction on climate change

When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems

Exposure to the IPCC special report on 1.5 °C global warming is linked to perceived threat and increased concern about climate change

Testing the emission reduction claims of CDM projects using the Benford’s Law (open access)

Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change (open access)

Who is heard in climate change journalism? Sourcing patterns in climate change news in China, India, Singapore, and Thailand

A continuing need to revisit BECCS and its potential

A qualitative comparative analysis of women’s agency and adaptive capacity in climate change hotspots in Asia and Africa

The challenges of extending climate risk insurance to fisheries

The political in the technical: understanding the influence of national political institutions on climate adaptation (open access)

Actor roles and networks in agricultural climate services in Ethiopia: a social network analysis (open access)

Determinants of vulnerability of bean growing households to climate variability in Colombia (open access)

Effects of climate change and livelihood diversification on the gendered productivity gap in Northern Ghana (open access)

Winter weather whiplash: impacts of meteorological events misaligned with natural and human systems in seasonally snow?covered regions (open access)

Potential vulnerability of Moroccan apple orchard to climate change–induced phenological perturbations: effects on yields and fruit quality

When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems

The impact of climate change on ski resorts in China

Connecting Extreme Heat Events to Climate Change: Media Coverage of Heat Waves and Wildfires (open access)

Asymmetric impacts of globalisation on CO 2 emissions of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean

Markets for Public Attention at the Interface of Climate Science and Policy Making (open access)

Who Leads the Conversation on Climate Change?: A Study of a Global Network of NGOs on Twitter (open access)

Greenhouse gas emissions–crude oil prices: an empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework

Biology and global warming

Contrasting effects of climate change on the European and global potential distributions of two Mediterranean helicoid terrestrial gastropods (open access)

The impact of rising CO2 and acclimation on the response of US forests to global warming (open access)

Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Ocean community warming responses explained by thermal affinities and temperature gradients

How will the key marine calcifier Emiliania huxleyi respond to a warmer and more thermally variable ocean? (open access)

Climate?driven habitat change causes evolution in Threespine Stickleback

Research priorities for natural ecosystems in a changing global climate

Defining CO2 and O2 syndromes of marine biomes in the Anthropocene

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

GHG sources and sinks, flux

Atmospheric radiocarbon measurements to quantify CO2 emissions in the UK from 2014 to 2015 (open access)

Sensitivity of mangrove soil organic matter decay to warming and sea level change

Other:

Machine learning and artificial intelligence to aid climate change research and preparedness

Viewing forced climate patterns through an AI Lens

Unprecedented atmospheric conditions (1948–2019) drive the 2019 exceptional melting season over the Greenland ice sheet (open access)