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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47, 2020

Posted on 25 November 2020 by Doug Bostrom

"Don't make us stop the car." 

Climate change of a different kind: Examining the climate effects of a regional nuclear weapons exchange using a multiscale atmospheric modeling approach, investigated by Wegman, Lundquist et al. 

There's good news: the main proximate cause of the resulting global mess might last only about 4 years instead of 15. 

Because it's about warfare and warfare is inherently useless and undesirable, this work nicely simplifies for discussion some moral and ethical puzzles, including: for what purposes are external costs acceptable to impose on others, and does any country have a "sovereign right" to impose costs for arguably useless objectives on bystanders in the form of excess mortality, economic devastation, etc.? 

In the immediate case of this research: if such a spat is imminent, what fundamental rights do bystander nations have to interdict? By extension, how do we establish thresholds for acceptable freeloading in other forms by nations imposing costs on others?

What we're talking about is neatly analogous to a couple of astronauts on the ISS becoming angry with one another, assembling Molotov cocktails from "materials found 'round the home," going at it. Are bystander  astronauts expected to take this as the normal course of affairs, pretend nothing is happening, do nothing?

Short of open domestic violence in space, would opening a cigar shop on the ISS be OK, if some astronauts objected to the workload imposed by smoke contamination? (kids: claiming that lit cigars do not make smoke won't wash, no matter how much whining we hear)

When do adults get to say "no?"

102 Articles

Physical science of climate change, effects

Benchmark calculations of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10501550.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Intensification of the dispersion of the global climatic landscape and its potential as a new climate change indicator
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba2a7

Northward Propagation of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone and Strengthening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089823

Observational Constraint on Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Contributions to Global Ocean Heat Content Changes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0091.1

Significant mass loss in the accumulation area of the Adamello glacier indicated by the chronology of a 46 m ice core
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-334 (preprint)

The roles of climate extremes, ecological succession, and hydrology in repeated permafrost aggradation and degradation in fens on the Tanana Flats, Alaska
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005824

Warmer and Drier Fire Seasons Contribute to Increases in Area Burned at High Severity in Western US Forests From 1985 to 2017
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089858

Land surface temperature trend and its drivers in East Africa
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033446

Skewness of Temperature Data Implies an Abrupt Change in the Climate System Between 1985 and 1991
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503828.1

Dynamics of freezing/thawing indices and frozen ground from 1900 to 2017 in the upper Brahmaputra River Basin, Tibetan Plateau
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.10.003

Recent land cover changes in the Southwestern US lead to an increase in surface temperature
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108246

The changing nature of ablation-inducing synoptic weather types in the North American Great Lakes basin
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03462-3

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Intensification of the dispersion of the global climatic landscape and its potential as a new climate change indicator
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba2a7

Image Classification of Marine-Terminating Outlet Glaciers using Deep Learning Methods
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-310 (preprint)

A Novel Approach to Map the Intensity of Surface Melting on the Antarctica Ice Sheet using SMAP L-Band Microwave Radiometry
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-297 (preprint)

Biases in open-path carbon dioxide flux measurements: Roles of instrument surface heat exchange and analyzer temperature sensitivity
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108216

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects MSWE

Observational Constraint on Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Contributions to Global Ocean Heat Content Changes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0091.1

How Does El Niño–Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming—A First Look at CMIP6
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090640

Global climate response to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020

Assessment of the European climate projections as simulated by the large EURO?CORDEX regional and global climate model ensemble
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd032356

20th century global glacier mass change: an ensemble-based model reconstruction
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-320 (preprint)

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: Validation of Large?Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033151

Long?Term Variability and Tendencies in Middle Atmosphere Temperature and Zonal Wind from WACCM6 Simulations during 1850?2014
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033579

Projected changes in abrupt shifts between dry and wet extremes over China through an ensemble of regional climate model simulations
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033894

Using prophet forecasting model to characterize the temporal variations of historical and future surface urban heat island in China
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd031968

Strong large-scale climate response to North American sulphate aerosols in CESM
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbe45

Changes in building climate zones over China based on high-resolution regional climate projections
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbde8

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Effects of model calibration on hydrological and water resources management simulations under climate change in a semi-arid watershed
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02917-w

Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds

Comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models for climate change impact assessment in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Reconciling the surface temperature–surface mass balance relationship in models and ice cores in Antarctica over the last 2 centuries
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020

Benchmark calculations of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10501550.1

Toward stable, general machine?learned models of the atmospheric chemical system
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020jd032759

Evaluation of the large EURO?CORDEX regional climate model ensemble
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd032344

Evaluation of climate model simulations in representing the precipitation non?stationarity by considering observational uncertainties
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6940

Cryosphere & climate change

A new sea-level record for the Neogene/Quaternary boundary reveals transition to a more stable East Antarctic Ice Sheet
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2004209117

Reconciling the surface temperature–surface mass balance relationship in models and ice cores in Antarctica over the last 2 centuries
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020

Distribution and seasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes on Shackleton Ice Shelf, East Antarctica
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-4103-2020

Sharp contrasts in observed and modeled crevasse patterns at Greenland's marine terminating glaciers
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-4121-2020

Significant mass loss in the accumulation area of the Adamello glacier indicated by the chronology of a 46 m ice core
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-334 (preprint)

The roles of climate extremes, ecological succession, and hydrology in repeated permafrost aggradation and degradation in fens on the Tanana Flats, Alaska
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005824

Paleoclimate

Victims of ancient hyperthermal events herald the fates of marine clades and traits under global warming
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15434

A new sea-level record for the Neogene/Quaternary boundary reveals transition to a more stable East Antarctic Ice Sheet
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2004209117

Did Holocene climate changes drive West Antarctic grounding line retreat and re-advance?
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-308 (preprint)

Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020

Development of global temperature and pH calibrations based on bacterial 3-hydroxy fatty acids in soils
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-428 (preprint)

Spatial Fingerprint of Younger Dryas Cooling and Warming in Eastern North America
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090031

Biology & climate change

Victims of ancient hyperthermal events herald the fates of marine clades and traits under global warming
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15434

Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.692

Warmer incubation temperature influences sea turtle survival and nullifies the benefit of a female-biased sex ratio
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02933-w

Bottomland hardwood forest growth and stress response to hydroclimatic variation: evidence from dendrochronology and tree ring Δ13C values

Recent above-ground biomass changes in central Chukotka (Russian Far East) using field sampling and Landsat satellite data
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-416 (preprint)

Recent land cover changes in the Southwestern US lead to an increase in surface temperature
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108246

Climatic drivers of (changes in) bat migration phenology at Bracken Cave (USA)
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15433

A decision framework for evidence?based climate adaptation interventions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15429

Divergent shrub?cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15451

Warming leads to more closed nitrogen cycling in nitrogen?rich tropical forests
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15432

Inhibitory effects of climate change on the growth and extracellular enzyme activities of a widespread Antarctic soil fungus
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15456

Climate change driven hyposalinity as a selective agent in the littoral mesoherbivore Idotea balthica

Ecophysiological adjustments of a pine forest to enhance early spring activity in hot and dry climate
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc2f9

Increased burning in a warming climate reduces carbon uptake in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem despite productivity gains
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13559

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Evaluating two soil carbon models within the global land surface model JSBACH using surface and spaceborne observations of atmospheric CO2

Hypersaline tidal flats as important Blue Carbon systems: A case study from three ecosystems
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-426 (preprint)

The Carbon Stock and Sequestration Rate in Tidal Flats From Coastal China
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006772

Identification of key physical processes and improvements for simulating and predicting net primary production over the Tibetan Plateau
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033128

Beef cattle methane emission estimation using the eddy covariance technique in combination with geolocation
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108249

Biases in open-path carbon dioxide flux measurements: Roles of instrument surface heat exchange and analyzer temperature sensitivity
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108216

Divergent drivers of the microbial methane sink in temperate forest and grassland soils
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15430

Boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb8

Improving uncertainty in forest carbon accounting for REDD+ mitigation efforts
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb96f

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

A few basic concepts in electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19369-6

Bio-energy and CO 2 emission reductions: an integrated land-use and energy sector perspective

Incentivising bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) responsibly: Comparing stakeholder policy preferences in the United Kingdom and Sweden
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.09.022

Geoengineering climate

Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering could lower future risk of ‘Day Zero’ level droughts in Cape Town
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbf13

Climate change communications & cognition

When IPCC graphs can foster or bias understanding: evidence among decision-makers from governmental and non-governmental institutions
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbc3c

Discounting Environmental Policy:The Effects of Psychological Distance Over Time and Space
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101529

Weather Fluctuations, Expectation Formation, and Short-Run Behavioral Responses to Climate Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00525-x

A hot topic in hot times: how media coverage of climate change is affected by temperature abnormalities
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb732

Public risk salience of sea level rise in Louisiana, United States

Agronomy & climate change

A climate change indicator framework for rangelands and pastures of the USA
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02915-y

Gendered impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation options for rice cultivation in India
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02941-w

Divergent climate feedbacks in the growing period and the dormancy period to sowing date shift of winter wheat in the North China Plain
Open Access DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-388 (preprint)

Beef cattle methane emission estimation using the eddy covariance technique in combination with geolocation
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108249

Spatial-temporal distribution of climate suitability of winter wheat in North China Plain for current and future climate scenarios
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03450-7

Temperature?driven harvest decisions amplify US winter wheat loss under climate warming

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Critical political economy to the table
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02937-6

Financial development and macroeconomic sustainability: modeling based on a modified environmental Kuznets curve
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02914-z

Saving resources and the climate? A systematic review of the circular economy and its mitigation potential
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb7

Climate change mitigation & adaptation public policy research

What drives relocation policies in the Maldives?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02919-8

Introduction to the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment: overview of the process and context
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02928-7

Urban and peri-urban agriculture in Goiânia: The search for solutions to adapt cities in the context of global climate change
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100732

A map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings worldwide
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb69f

The future-climate, current-policy framework: towards an approach linking climate science to sector policy development
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb9

What are the social outcomes of climate policies? A systematic map and review of the ex-post literature
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc11f

Climate change impacts on human health

Conservation under climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2007eo450007

Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.31.929380

Climate change adaptation

“Certain uncertainty: The role of internal climate variability in projections of regional climate change and risk management”
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001854

Weathering Adaptation: Grid Infrastructure Planning in a Changing Climate
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100256

From needs to actions: prospects for planned adaptations in high mountain communities
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02920-1

Assessments on surface water resources and their vulnerability and adaptability in China
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.11.002

Desalination and sustainability: a triple bottom line study of Australia
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbd63

Climate change impacts on human culture

Combating food insecurity in a rapidly changing mountain climate environment: insights from Lesotho
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02922-z

Other

Corrigendum to “Use of aviation by climate change researchers: Structural influences, personal attitudes, and information provision”
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102202

Larger Sensitivity of Arctic Precipitation Phase to Aerosol than Greenhouse Gas forcing
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090452

Examining the climate effects of a regional nuclear weapons exchange using a multiscale atmospheric modeling approach
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033056

Mitigating climate change through diet choice: Costs and CO2 emissions of different cookery book-based dietary options in Germany

Climate and society in European history
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.691

NASA’s carbon monitoring system (CMS) and arctic-boreal vulnerability experiment (ABoVE) social network and community of practice

Cooling demand in integrated assessment models: a methodological review
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb90a

Is green is the new sexy? Romantic benefits of conspicuous conservation
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101530

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Two roads diverge
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1017/cbo9781316282373

The UNFCCC the EU and the UNSC: A research agenda proposal for the climate security question
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.11.004

Frontiers in Climate Change Adaptation Science: Advancing Guidelines to Design Adaptation Pathways
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00166-8

 


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