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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9, 2020

Posted on 4 March 2020 by doug_bostrom

60 Articles 

Physical science of global warming & effects 

Importance of Laplacian of low-level warming for the response of precipitation to climate change over tropical oceans

Convective dynamics and the response of precipitation extremes to warming in radiative-convective equilibrium

Observations & observational methods of global warming & effects

Detailed quantification of glacier elevation and mass changes in South Georgia (open access)

Poleward shift of the major ocean gyres detected in a warming climate

Temporal Changes in the Areal Coverage of Daily Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States Using High Resolution Gridded Data

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Ocean-driven Arctic warming

Marine Heatwaves in China's marginal seas and adjacent offshore waters: Past, Present, and Future

Climate signal shift under the influence of prevailing climate warming – evidence from Quercus liaotungensis on Dongling Mountain, Beijing, China

Modeling, simulation & analysis of global warming & global warming effects

Terrestrial Evaporation and Moisture Drainage in a Warmer Climate

Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion

Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud‐Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations

Statistical-dynamical downscaling projections of tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate: Two diverging genesis scenarios

Can we extrapolate climate in an inner basin? The case of the Red Sea

Future soil loss in highland Ethiopia under changing climate and land use

South Asian monsoon response to weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate

The relation of climate extremes with global warming in the Mediterranean region and its north versus south contrast

Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land (open access)

Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa (open access)

Characteristics of extreme precipitation and runoff in the Xijiang River Basin at global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

Shifting velocity of temperature extremes under climate change (open access)

Climate model advancement

Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models

Biology & global warming

Light availability modulates the effects of warming in a marine N2 fixer (open access)

African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future CO2 conditions (open access)

Pathway dependence of ecosystem responses in China to 1.5 °C global warming (open access)

Strategically designed marine reserve networks are robust to climate change driven shifts in population connectivity (open access)

Woody plant encroachment intensifies under climate change across tundra and savanna biomes

GHG sources & sinks, flux

The role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle for the 21st century

From fibrous plant residues to mineral-associated organic carbon – the fate of organic matter in Arctic permafrost soils (open access)

Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes, Concentrations, Sources and Budget in Northeast China: Observational and Modeling Studies

Long‐term impacts of permafrost thaw on carbon storage in peatlands: deep losses offset by surficial accumulation

Wintertime grassland dynamics may influence belowground biomass under climate change: a model analysis (open access)

Climate change communications & cognition

Reporting on Climate Change by Broadcast Meteorologists: A National Assessment (open access)

Public views of Scotland's path to decarbonization: Evidence from citizens' juries and focus groups

Humans dealing with our global warming

“We Would Ride Safely in the Harbor of the Future”: Historical Parallels between the Existential Threats of Yellow Fever and Sea Level Rise in New Orleans and Norfolk

Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches (open access)

Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries

Dark side of low carbon

Understanding interdependent climate change risks using a serious game (open access)

Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries

Climate change impacts on viticulture in Croatia; viticultural zoning and future potential

Global warming to increase violent crime in the United States (open access)

Modeling the carbon footprint of fresh produce: effects of transportation, localness, and seasonality on US orange markets (open access)

Defining and classifying personal and household climate change adaptation behaviors

Policy design for climate change mitigation and adaptation in sheep farming: Insights from a study of the knowledge transfer chain

Climate adaptation pathways for agriculture: Insights from a participatory process

Inclusive and adaptive business models for climate-smart value creation

Forecasting CO2 emissions from energy consumption in Pakistan under different scenarios: The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

Other

Intermolecular cascaded π-conjugation channels for electron delivery powering CO2 photoreduction (open access)

Global Wetting by Seasonal Surface Water Over the Last Decades (open access)

AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (open access)

A 14.5 million-year record of East Antarctic Ice Sheet fluctuations from the central Transantarctic Mountains, constrained with cosmogenic 3He, 10Be, 21Ne, and 26Al (open access)

Legally obtaining copies of "paywalled" articles

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally. 

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc. 

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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Comments

Comments 1 to 4:

  1. Can anyone refer me to the source of the idea that it takes thousands of years for the planet to reach equilibrium from the relatively modest rising "rate" of greenhouse gas levels and that the planet is still warming from the effects of 260ppm about 1,500 years ago?  (not in just a few decades).  I have been told that a study by Goreau in 1990 and another by Rohling in 2009 addresses this "stretched" delayed effect?  

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  2. swampfoxh @1,

    Your question doesn't 'ring any bells' with me and the authors you mention don't seem to lead anywhere that I can see.

    The 1,500 year timescale is occasionally mentioned as the time it takes the ocean waters to re-appear at the surface and so reach CO2-quilibrium with the atmosphere. That is part of what Goreau (1990) 'Balancing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide' addresses but it is not the same as timescales for temperature equilibrium under otherwise-fixed CO2 levels.

    Rohling is the lead author of Rohling et al (2009) 'Antarctic temperature and global sea level closelycoupled over the past five glacial cycles' and this does consider multi-millennial equilibrium timescales but this concerns sea level. There is a connection in that the melt-out of, say, Greenland would both impact sea level and temperature as the albedo change constitutes a slow climate feedback (see this SkS post). But over such multi-millennial timescales with Milankovitch cycles in operation, it would require more than "modest" climate forcings to be significant.

    More directly addressing your question, the ice cores do show a small increase in CO2 levels over the last 8,000 years. This would provide roughly a 0.3Wm^-2 climate forcing which (slow and fast feedbacks so perhaps a sensitivity of 6ºC) could have given a total temperature rise of +0.5ºC. Yet spread over eight milennia, any residual effect today would be now miniscule.

    CO2 graph 10000 years

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  3. MAR, "More directly addressing your question, the ice cores do show a small increase in CO2 levels over the last 8,000 years..."

    The Marcott study here shows global temperatures falling over about the last 3500 years until about 1900. So perhaps the milankovitch cycle cancelled out the slow low level rise of CO2 concentrations over the same period? 

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  4. This graphic shows both global temperatures and CO2 levels over the past 10,000 years:

    Last 10,000 years

    IIRC, Ruddiman's hypothesis helps account for some of that discrepancy that you note.

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