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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #43, 2020

Posted on 28 October 2020 by doug_bostrom

Hint from the past: "you're getting warmer!" 

Even though we're accidentally experimenting with our climate we really oughtn't take that risk. Still, it would be nice to safely run global-scale manipulations of climate. We could further confirm our grasp on extending some fairly simple physical principles from theory to prediction and observation. All indications point to our theoretical hold on climate fundamentals being quite firm, but "more is better."

And of course, being able to make sound predictions from theoretical underpinnings and thereby benefit from those is one of our key super-powers as a species— when we choose to use it. An example of failing to have or— in current events— use this ability is currently pandemic. 

Happily, earlier accidental "forced" climate behavior experiments have already run and completed— millions of years ago— and we can see results of those if we know where and how to look. And we do have that information, in the form of various recordings of paleoclimate in various media.

Gordon Inglis and a large accompanying cast of investigators  examine some significant events in Earth's paleoclimate via best available recording means and confirm yet again that our modern understanding of "climate sensitivity" to CO2 is squarely on track. As others have already suspected, explored and explained, this new work again suggests that extremely low climate sensitivity is also extremely unlikely.

Hence we're better able to make predictions as the reliability of our theory is further confirmed. We need only choose to exploit our super-powers, or not. The best luck is made, not found.

From the abstract:

Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 C (22.3 to 28.3 C), 31.6 C (27.2 to 34.5 C), and 27.0 C (23.2 to 29.7 C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 C (2.4 to 6.8 C), 3.6 C (2.3 to 4.7 C), and 3.1 C (1.8 to 4.4 C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (<1.5 per doubling CO2)

Open access and free to read (preprint, but the crew members are not the types to sign on to a leaky ship): Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene..

93 Articles

Physical science of global warming & effects

Effects of Buoyancy and Wind Forcing on Southern Ocean Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0877.1

Observations of global warming & effects

Investigation of the 2016 Eurasia heat wave as an event of the recent warming
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbbae

32-year record-high surface melt in 2019/2020 on north George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-309

Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-305 (preprint)

Unprecedented loss of surface and cave ice in SE Europe related to record summer rains in 2019
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-287 (preprint)

The 2020 Larsen C Ice Shelf surface melt is a 40-year record high
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3551-2020

Climatic Shift of the Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting Vietnam’s Coastal Region
DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-20-0021.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate & global warming, effects

Surface velocity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS): assessment of interior velocities derived from satellite data by GPS
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3487-2020

Modeling, simulation & projection of global warming & global warming effects MSWE

Dynamic genesis potential index for diagnosing present-day and future global tropical cyclone genesis
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbb01

An Estimate of Global, Regional and Seasonal Cirrus Cloud Radiative Effects Contributed by Homogeneous Ice Nucleation
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-846 (preprint)

Decoupling of warming mountain snowpacks from hydrological regimes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb55f

Modeled Climate Responses to Realistic Extremes of Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer Snow Anomalies
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0504.1

How a typical West African day in the future-climate compares with current-climate conditions in a convection-permitting and parameterised convection climate model
Open Access DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02881-5

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-11823-2020

Arctic sea ice thickness internal variability and its changes under historical and anthropogenic forcing
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3479-2020

Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020

Coral reef-derived dimethyl sulfide and the climatic impact of the loss of coral reefs
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-1054 (preprint)

Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3

Possible Dependence of Climate on Atmospheric Mass: A Convection–Circulation–Cloud Coupled Feedback
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-20-0022.1

Effects of Buoyancy and Wind Forcing on Southern Ocean Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0877.1

Locations and Mechanisms of Ocean Ventilation in the High-Latitude North Atlantic in an Eddy-Permitting Ocean Model
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0191.1

Impacts of global warming on West African monsoon rainfall: Downscaling by pseudo global warming method
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105334

Response of river-lake hydrologic regimes to local climate change in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau region, China
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01712-8

The impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on tropical Indian Ocean surface wave heights in ERA5 and CMIP5 models
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6900

Model Evaluation and Uncertainties in Projected Changes of Drought over Northern China based on CMIP5 Models
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6907

Evaluation of the dependence of the sensible heat flux trend on elevation over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP5 models
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6908

Anthropogenic influence would increase intense snowfall events over parts of the Northern Hemisphere in the future
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbc93

Urbanisation’s contribution to climate warming in Great Britain
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbb51

Vulnerability of the Caspian Sea shoreline to changes in hydrology and climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abaad8

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

The Earth has humans, so why don’t our climate models?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/512365a

Effective sample size for precipitation estimation in atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments: dependence on temporal and spatial averaging scales
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02886-0

Nitrogen cycling in CMIP6 land surface models: progress and limitations
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020

Daily Autocorrelation and Mean Temperature/Moisture Rise as Determining Factors for Future Heat-Wave Patterns in the United States

Increasing the Usability of Climate Models through the Use of Consumer-Report-Style Resources for Decision-Making

From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate

Impact of ocean model resolution on understanding the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbc3e

Cryosphere & climate change

Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020

32-year record-high surface melt in 2019/2020 on north George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-309

Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-305 (preprint)

Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-243 (preprint)

Unprecedented loss of surface and cave ice in SE Europe related to record summer rains in 2019
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-287 (preprint)

Paleoclimate

Marine plankton show threshold extinction response to Neogene climate change
Open Access DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18879-7

Simulated stability of the AMOC during the Last Glacial Maximum under realistic boundary conditions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-2020-135 (preprint)

Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-1953-2020 (preprint)

Anomalous marine calcium cycle linked to carbonate factory change after the Smithian Thermal Maximum (Early Triassic)
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103418

Biology & global warming

Climate drives the geography of marine consumption by changing predator communities
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2005255117

Marine plankton show threshold extinction response to Neogene climate change
Open Access DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18879-7

Arctic aquatic graminoid tundra responses to nutrient availability
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-351 (preprint)

The future of Arctic sea-ice biogeochemistry and ice-associated ecosystems
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00940-4

Thermal mismatches in biological rates determine trophic control and biomass distribution under warming

Climate and land‐use change will lead to a faunal “savannization” on tropical rainforests
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15374

Long‐term effects of 7‐year warming experiment in the field on leaf hydraulic and economic traits of subtropical tree species
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15355

The role of climate, foliar stoichiometry and plant diversity on ecosystem carbon balance
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15385

Current distributions and future climate‐driven changes in diatoms, insects and fish in U.S. streams
DOI: 10.1111/geb.13193

GHG sources & sinks, flux

RCP8.5 is a problematic scenario for near-term emissions
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2017124117

Estimating the multi-decadal carbon deficit of burned Amazonian forests
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb62c

The oldest extant tropical peatland in the world: a major carbon reservoir for at least 47 000 years
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb853

Arctic aquatic graminoid tundra responses to nutrient availability
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-351 (preprint)

Carbon storage capacity of tropical peatlands in natural and artificial drainage networks
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba867

Thermokarst amplifies fluvial inorganic carbon cycling and export across watershed scales on the Peel Plateau, Canada
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-5163-2020

Observations of atmospheric 14CO2 at Anmyeondo GAW station, South Korea: implications for fossil fuel CO2 and emission ratios

Long-term bare fallow soil fractions reveal thermo-chemical properties controlling soil organic carbon dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-176 (preprint)

New forest biomass carbon stock estimates in Northeast Asia based on multisource data
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15376

Warming‐induced global soil carbon loss attenuated by downward carbon movement
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15370

The role of climate, foliar stoichiometry and plant diversity on ecosystem carbon balance
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15385

Structural changes in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in the United Kingdom (UK): an emission multiplier product matrix (EMPM) approach

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Delayed impact of natural climate solutions
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15413

A two-stage clustering approach to investigate lifestyle carbon footprints in two Australian cities
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb502

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430

Can China decarbonize its electricity sector?
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111917

Geoengineering climate

The cost of stratospheric aerosol injection through 2100
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e7

Black carbon

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-11823-2020

Climate change communications & cognition

Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02893-1

A gendered lens to self-evaluated and actual climate change knowledge
DOI: 10.1007/s13412-020-00641-6

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100250

Understanding public concern about climate change in Europe, 2008–2017: the influence of economic factors and right-wing populism
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1831431

Agronomy & climate change

Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on GHG emissions and agricultural water use
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108218

Long‐term effects of 7‐year warming experiment in the field on leaf hydraulic and economic traits of subtropical tree species
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15355

Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abadcb

Does adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices improve farmers’ crop income? Assessing the determinants and its impacts in Punjab province, Pakistan
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01049-6

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Analyzing nonlinear impact of economic growth drivers on CO2 emissions: Designing an SDG framework for India
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111965

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430

Climate change mitigation & adaptation public policy research

Are we expecting too much from the private sector in flood adaptation? Scenario-based field experiments with small- and medium-sized firms in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02888-y

Why climate migration is not managed retreat: Six justifications
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102187

A framework for assessing the potential effectiveness of adaptation policies: Coastal risks and sea-level rise in the Maldives
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.09.028

Farmers’ adaptation decisions to landslides and flash floods in the mountainous region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00983-9

Enabling incremental adaptation in disadvantaged communities: polycentric governance with a focus on non-financial capital
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1833824

Climate change adaptation

Are we expecting too much from the private sector in flood adaptation? Scenario-based field experiments with small- and medium-sized firms in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02888-y

Just adaptation? Generating new vulnerabilities and shaping adaptive capacities through the politics of climate-related resettlement in a Philippine coastal city
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102188

Climate change impacts on human culture

How urbanization enhanced exposure to climate risks in the Pacific: A case study in the Republic of Palau
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb9dc

Other

Decoupling of urban CO2 and air pollutant emission reductions during the European SARS-CoV2 lockdown (preprint)

Improving rural health care reduces illegal logging and conserves carbon in a tropical forest
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2009240117

Sandy beaches can survive sea-level rise [comment addressed to following article]

Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion [above comment replied to in following item]

Reply to: Sandy beaches can survive sea-level rise
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00935-1

Facing climate injustices: community trust-building for climate services through Arts and Sciences narrative co-production
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100253

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

RCP8.5 is a problematic scenario for near-term emissions
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2017124117

The Earth has humans, so why don’t our climate models?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/512365a

Climate connections
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1017/cbo9780511750397

The future of Arctic sea-ice biogeochemistry and ice-associated ecosystems
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00940-4

We live in a changing world, but that shouldn’t mean we abandon the concept of equilibrium
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13629

 


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