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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #7 2023

Posted on 16 February 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Fossil-captured CCS debunked

Our weekly collection of freshly published research on anthropogenic climate change is a continuation and evolution of Skeptical Science volunteer Ari Jokimäki's AGW Obeserver, started in 2010 and migrated to Skeptical Science in 2012. Over intervening years the format has evolved a bit. Late in 2021 Marc Kodack kindly signed on to add a new feature, our government/NGO reports section. Here we present selected articles featuring many of the characteristics of journal articles but aimed more toward policymakers and the general public, broad situational awareness.  

This week's government/NGO collection includes a prime example of its worth. Why Carbon Capture and Storage Is Not a Net-Zero Solution for Canada’s Oil and Gas Sector by Laura Cameron and Angela Carter working on behalf of The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is a calm, deliberative and deeply sourced evisceration of the Canadian oil industry's optically-aligned token efforts to simulate a semblance of conscience for an industry fundamentally dependent on imposing external costs. These costs can't be accounted for with carbon capture and storage (CCS); the disparity between CO2 that can be captured and that liberated "downstream" as a side-effect of the industry's outmoded and hazardous monetization scheme is a vast, uncrossable gulf. This report is what real skepticism looks like, and readers needing backup material for "don't be fooled by CCS" can look to it for reliable myth-busting evidence in bulk quantity. Although the authors' work emphasizes data on the infamous Canadian tar sands projects (which bear a striking resemblance to Saruman's industrial plant), the main payload is portable to wherever bogus claims about CCS may be found.

New Research recap

Our "main event" of academic publications this week includes no fewer than 70 open access publications, over half the total listing (look for green in the list for direct links to articles readable by "the rest of us.") As usual there is far too much material for any person to read in a week, or to understand in a month.

Given that it's a firehose tapped from a Niagara Falls, what's the point of New Research? Skeptical Science's foundations lie in "here's the best we know," which is to be found in academic research. Our best information grows and improves hour-by-hour, day-by-day, week-by-week. Fundamentally, the point of this weekly sampling of climate-related research is "do keep up," The reasons for keeping up vary from simple curiosity to "I'm engaged in climate science communications and am obliged to keep my finger on the pulse of climate inquiry." New Research makes this a little bit easier by saving users duplicative effort spent for various purposes.

We hypothesize several use cases for New Research. Readers with a general interest in human-caused global climate change can use this weekly listing as a watering hole for keeping up with the general arc of climate-related research. The "observations" section provides a ready supply of evidence for those who may be engaged in discussion with people claiming "it's not happening."  The perennially full "GHG" section hints at our struggle to capture a full, comprehensively reliable accounting for the heat-trapping gases forming the basis of the changes we're seeing. Overall, each week's collation gives a feel for the massive total scope and complexity of the problem we've created for ourselves with fossil fuel combustion. As well, while the volume of reports here is not by any means comprehensive,  it provides a strong clue to the urgency the scientific community attaches to our shared challenge. 

One other purpose of New Research is to penetrate the veil of institutional press offices, the overall filter function of the foodchain leading from a scientific report to headlines in news sources. A wealth of fascinating and often significant work does not meet criteria rising to writing and circulating press releases. Press releases fall may fall silently. Climate change research is in the daily news as an iceberg floats in water; as with an iceberg's submerged bulk most research warning us of imminent harm isn't visible in popular media. This weekly listing tries to make the unseen mass of climate-related research easier to spot. 

We attempt to categorize articles for quick access, such that a person with an interest in biological implications of anthropogenic climate change may easily see a concentration of such works, similarly for GHG sources, sinks and flux, etc. Some items are difficult to pigeonhole, straddle fields of interest; such articles may appear in two sections. Particularly for cryosphere and hydrometeorological research, model projections concerned with those arenas may be found in their respective native topic categories as opposed to the section of general modeling results. 

We also include a "nudges" section with opinion, commentary and perspective pieces from academic journals. These are not unhinged from facts in the manner of op-ed pieces in newspapers and popular magazines but can be relied upon as viewpoints of experts, raised hands worth strong attention. 

Finally, readers will generally see a "decarbonization" section. Skeptical Science includes "debunkings of discourses of delay" and "solutions denial" in our remit and this section may be useful for that purpose. Mostly— given the generally dire and depressing nature of many of the articles we list— this little section offers some rays of hope while also illustrating the excessive economy of "just" as in "let's just fix our climate problem." A frenzy of effort is going in that direction of remediation of our messy  energy habits, most of it not splashy enough to make headlines. This work is intricate and not easy. At least a glancing, minor appreciation of that is helpful in terms of calibrating our ambitions. 

134 articles in 54 journals by 869 contributing authors

Observations of climate change, effects

Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires
Pokharel et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-023-03495-3

Changes in marine hot and cold extremes in the China Seas during 1982–2020
Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100553

Changes of upper-ocean temperature in the Southeast Indian Subantarctic Mode Water formation region since the 1950s
Jing et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-023-06692-z

Classification and Causes of East Asian Marine Heatwaves during Boreal Summer
Oh et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0369.1

Homogenization of Swedish mean monthly temperature series 1860–2021
Joelsson et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7881

Long-term Change of Summer Mean and Extreme Precipitations in Korea and East Asia
Do et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8039

Rapid range shifts in African Anopheles mosquitoes over the last century
Carlson et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/673913

What caused the salient difference in rapid intensification magnitudes of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones between 1998 and 2010?
Li et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106654

Winter sea-ice growth in the Arctic impeded by more frequent atmospheric rivers
, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01601-y

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Assessing homogeneity of land surface air temperature observations using sparse-input reanalyses
Gillespie et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7822

Optimizing Soil Moisture Station Networks for Future Climates
Bessenbacher et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl101667

The benefits of homogenising snow depth series – Impacts on decadal trends and extremes for Switzerland
Buchmann et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-653-2023

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

140 Years of Global Ocean Wind-Wave Climate Derived from CMIP6 ACCESS-CM2 and EC-Earth3 GCMs: Global Trends, Regional Changes, and Future Projections
Meucci et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0929.1

Bayesian retro- and prospective assessment of CMIP6 climatology in Pan Third Pole region
Liu et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06345-7

Climate zoning under climate change scenarios in the basin of Lake Urmia and in vicinity basins
Jani et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.21203/

Dynamic downscaling of climate simulations and projected changes in tropical South America using RegCM4.7
da Silva et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8035

Evaluation and Projection of Changes in Daily Maximum Wind Speed over China Based on CMIP6
Zha et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0193.1

Evaluation and Projections of Extreme Precipitation precipitation extreme using a Spatial Extremes Framework
Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8038

Heatwaves Similar to the Unprecedented One in Summer 2021 Over Western North America Are Projected to Become More Frequent in a Warmer World
Dong et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef003437

Impacts of 2 and 4°C global warmings on extreme temperatures in Taiwan
Tsai et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7815

Increasing extreme flood risk under future climate change scenarios in South Korea
Kim et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100552

Ocean Surface Warming Pattern Inhibits El Niño–Induced Atmospheric Teleconnections
Hao et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0275.1

Projected changes in synoptic circulations over Europe and their implications for summer precipitation: A CMIP6 perspective
Herrera?Lormendez et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8033

Sensitivity of the relationship between Antarctic ice shelves and iron supply to projected changes in the atmospheric forcing
Dinniman et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019210

The Spread of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Traced to Ocean Salinity
Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl100171

Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change
Pérez-Invernón et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A modelling study of the impact of tropical SSTs on the variability and predictable components of seasonal atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic–European region
Ivasi? & Herceg-Buli?, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06357-3

Application of the Pseudo-Global Warming Approach in a Kilometer-Resolution Climate Simulation of the Tropics
Heim et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10512541.1

Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model
Si et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06331-z

Diurnal temperature range in winter wheat–growing regions of China: CMIP6 model evaluation and comparison
Xie et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04385-5

Drivers of Biases in the CMIP6 Extratropical Storm Tracks. Part I: Northern Hemisphere
Priestley et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0976.1

Evaluation of CORDEX-CORE regional climate models in simulating rainfall variability in Rwanda
Safari et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7891

Evaluation of E3SM land model snow simulations over the western United States
Hao et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-673-2023

How certain are El Niño–Southern Oscillation frequency changes in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models?
Fix et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7901

Polar and Topographic Amplifications of Inter-model Spread of Surface Temperature in Climate Models
Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037509

Cryosphere & climate change

Arctic sea ice mass balance in a new coupled ice–ocean model using a brittle rheology framework
Boutin et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-617-2023

Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss
Li et al., Science Advances, Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.add7082

Complex motion of Greenland Ice Sheet outlet glaciers with basal temperate ice
Law et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5mm1k

Heterogeneous melting near the Thwaites Glacier grounding line
Schmidt et al., Nature, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-022-05691-0

Winter sea-ice growth in the Arctic impeded by more frequent atmospheric rivers
, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01601-y

Sea level & climate change

Mapping 21st Century Global Coastal Land Reclamation
Sengupta et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002927

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Atmospheric CO2 concentration based on boron isotopes versus simulations of the global carbon cycle during the Plio-Pleistocene
Köhler, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2022pa004439

Carbon cycle responses to changes in weathering and the long-term fate of stable carbon isotopes
Jeltsch?Thömmes & Joos Joos, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Open Access 10.1029/2022pa004577

Terrestrial amplification of past, present, and future climate change
Seltzer et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adf8119

Volcanic CO2 degassing postdates thermogenic carbon emission during the end-Permian mass extinction
Wu et al., Science Advances, Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.abq4082

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A resilient and connected network of sites to sustain biodiversity under a changing climate
Anderson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2204434119

Can a present-day thermal niche be preserved in a warming climate by a shift in phenology? A case study with sea turtles
Laloë & Hays, Royal Society Open Science, 10.1098/rsos.221002

Climate and sex in turtles
Fuller et al., Marine Ecology Progress Series, Open Access pdf 10.3354/meps10419

Climate mediates roles of pollinator species in plant–pollinator networks
Saunders et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13643

Climate, pesticides, and landcover drive declines of the western bumble bee
Williams & Hemberger, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2221692120

Climate-trait relationships exhibit strong habitat specificity in plant communities across Europe
Kambach et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-36240-6

Cloudiness delays projected impact of climate change on coral reefs
González-Espinosa & Donner, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000090

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on ranges of vertebrate species endemic to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over 40 years
Jiang et al., Conservation Biology, 10.1111/cobi.14069

Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change
Garcia?Costoya et al., Ecology Letters, Open Access 10.1111/ele.14173

Long-term field study reveals that warmer summers lead to larger and longer-lived females only in northern populations of Natterer’s bats
Stapelfeldt et al., Oecologia, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-023-05318-9

Long-term, large-scale experiment reveals the effects of seed limitation, climate, and anthropogenic disturbance on restoration of plant communities in a biodiversity hotspot
Orrock et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2201943119

Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate
Ratnarajah et al., Nature Communications, Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-36241-5

Plants maintain climate fidelity in the face of dynamic climate change
Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2201946119

Substrate availability and not thermal acclimation controls microbial temperature sensitivity response to long-term warming
Domeignoz?Horta et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16544

The timing of heat waves has multiyear effects on milkweed and its insect community
Cope et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3988

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Consistent centennial-scale change in European sub-Arctic peatland vegetation toward Sphagnum dominance—Implications for carbon sink capacity
Piilo et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16554

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Australian states and territories: Determinants and policy implications
Nasim & Nasim, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000091

Implications of changes in land use on soil and biomass carbon sequestration: a case study from the Owabi reservoir catchment in Ghana
Amissah et al., Carbon Management, Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2023.2166871

Mangrove reforestation provides greater blue carbon benefit than afforestation for mitigating global climate change
Song et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-36477-1

Moisture-driven divergence in mineral-associated soil carbon persistence
Heckman et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2210044120

Partial cutting of a boreal nutrient-rich peatland forest causes radically less short-term on-site CO2 emissions than clear-cutting
Korkiakoski et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109361

Salp blooms drive strong increases in passive carbon export in the Southern Ocean
Décima et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35204-6

The changing climate could lead to carbon losses in the tropics
, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-023-01602-x

Well-to-Wheels emission inventory for the passenger vehicles of Bogotá, Colombia
Cuéllar-Álvarez et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13762-023-04805-z

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Carbon dioxide removal–What’s worth doing? A biophysical and public need perspective
Sekera et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000124

Comparison of carbon content between plantation and natural regeneration seedlings in Durango, Mexico
Soto-Cervantes et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.14774


Aerodynamic upgrades of a Darrieus vertical axis small wind turbine
Eltayesh et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2023.01.018

Key factors influencing urban wind energy: A case study from the Dominican Republic
Vallejo Díaz et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2023.01.017

Monte Carlo modeling of tornado hazard to wind turbines in Germany
Bouchard & Romanic, Natural Hazards, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-023-05843-z

Power-to-X in energy hubs: A Danish case study of renewable fuel production
Kountouris et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113439

Spatiotemporal variations of 100-m wind in Mongolia and implications for wind energy resources
Hong et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8037

Geoengineering climate

Risk from response to a changing climate
Kithiia, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2010.12.002

Aerosols Climate change communications & cognition

Climate obstruction and Facebook advertising: how a sample of climate obstruction organizations use social media to disseminate discourses of delay
Holder et al., Climatic Change, Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03494-4

Collective responsibility for climate change
Vanderheiden, Library of Ethics and Applied Philosophy, Open Access 10.1007/978-94-007-1878-4_12

Self-focused value profiles relate to climate change skepticism in young adolescents
Grapsas et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology, Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.101978

The impact of perceived partisanship on climate policy support: A conceptual replication and extension of the temporal framing effect
Herberz et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.101972

“Our burgers eat carbon”: Investigating the discourses of corporate net-zero commitments
Christiansen et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.01.015

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Assessing long-term impacts of cover crops on soil organic carbon in the central U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems
Qin et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16632

Carbon footprint of transhumant sheep farms: accounting for natural baseline emissions in Mediterranean systems
Pardo et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.21203/

Challenges and Opportunities in Communicating Weather and Climate Information to Rural Farming Communities in Central Zimbabwe
Makuvaro et al., Weather, Climate, and Society, 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0016.1

Modelling adaptation and transformative adaptation in cropping systems: recent advances and future directions
Farrell et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101265

Pathways to achieving nature-positive and carbon–neutral land use and food systems in Wales
Jones et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02041-2

Production variability and adaptation strategies of Ugandan smallholders in the face of climate variability and market shocks
Wichern et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100490

Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates
Liu et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.21203/

The revival of the drylands re-learning resilience to climate change from pastoral livelihoods in East Africa
Semplici & Campbell, Climate and Development, Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2022.2160197

The role of rice cultivation in changes in atmospheric methane concentration and the Global Methane Pledge
Wang et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16631

Trends in climate and influence of climate-driven crop yields in southern coastal region, Bangladesh
Real et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-023-04382-8

Using bioclimatic indicators to assess climate change impacts on the Spanish wine sector
Gaitán & Pino-Otín, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106660

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climatological changes in rainfall distributions at different rain-rates under Qinghai-Tibet Plateau warming during 1981–2060
Ayantobo et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-023-04383-7

Evaluation and Projections of Extreme Precipitation precipitation extreme using a Spatial Extremes Framework
Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8038

Hydrological responses to Co-impacts of climate change and Land Use/Cover Change based on CMIP6 in the Ganjiang River, Poyang Lake basin
Gong et al., Anthropocene, 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100368

Increasing extreme flood risk under future climate change scenarios in South Korea
Kim et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100552

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
Philip et al., Earth System Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022

Temporally compounding heatwave–heavy rainfall events in Australia
Sauter et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7872

Climate change economics

Reforming a pre-existing biodiversity conservation scheme: Promoting climate co-benefits by a carbon payment
Kangas & Ollikainen, Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01833-4

Temporal and spatial evolution of embodied carbon transfer network in the context of the domestic economic cycle
Zhang & Dong, Carbon Management, Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2023.2176005

The challenge of border carbon adjustments as a mechanism for climate clubs
Winter, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000135

The linkage between carbon emissions, foreign direct investment, economic growth, and gross value added
Singh & Dhiman, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00809-2

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Decoupling analysis and peak prediction of carbon emission in less developed provinces: A case study of sichuan province, china
Chen et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2200

Does China's regional emission trading scheme lead to carbon leakage? Evidence from conglomerates
He & Chen, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113481

Exploring the value of electric vehicles to domestic end-users
Ejeh et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113474

Implications of changes in land use on soil and biomass carbon sequestration: a case study from the Owabi reservoir catchment in Ghana
Amissah et al., Carbon Management, Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2023.2166871

Implications of the energy transition for government revenues, energy imports and employment: The case of electric vehicles in India
Rajagopal, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113466

Institutions for effective climate policymaking: Lessons from the case of the United Kingdom
Gransaull et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113484

Interactions between land and grid development in the transition to a decarbonized European power system
Guillot et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113470

Let it grow: How community solar policy can increase PV adoption in cities
Nuñez-Jimenez et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113477

Overbuilding transmission: A case study and policy analysis of the Indian power sector
Athawale & Felder, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113437

Overcoming the shock of energy depletion for energy policy? Tracing the missing link between energy depletion, renewable energy development and decarbonization in the USA
Hossain et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113469

Refining wind and solar potential maps through spatial multicriteria assessment. Case study: Colombia
Ángel-Sanint et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.01.019

Reforming a pre-existing biodiversity conservation scheme: Promoting climate co-benefits by a carbon payment
Kangas & Ollikainen, Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01833-4

The policy dimension of energy transition: The Brazilian case in promoting renewable energies (2000–2022)
Werner & Lazaro, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113480

Urban congestion pricing based on relative comfort and its impact on carbon emissions
Yang et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101431

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A combined cognitive and spatial model to map and understand climate-induced migration
Cárdenas-Vélez et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-02987-7

Classifying Social Adaptation Practices to Heat Stress—Learning from Autonomous Adaptations in Two Small Towns in Germany
Teebken et al., Weather, Climate, and Society, 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0003.1

Climate change adaptation methods at the community level: Evidence from the Oghan watershed, north of Iran
Abedi Sarvestani & Shahraki, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.01.011

Climate change adaptation with limited resources: adaptive capacity and action in small- and medium-sized municipalities
Fila et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-02999-3

Climate justice in higher education: a proposed paradigm shift towards a transformative role for colleges and universities
Kinol et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03486-4

Exploring the meteorological impacts of surface and rooftop heat mitigation strategies over a tropical city
Khan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd038099

Risk from response to a changing climate
Kithiia, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2010.12.002

Unraveling the challenges of Japanese local climate change adaptation Centers: A Discussion and Analysis
Fujita et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100489

Climate change impacts on human health

Rapid range shifts in African Anopheles mosquitoes over the last century
Carlson et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/673913

Short-term exposure to temperature and mental health in North Carolina: a distributed lag nonlinear analysis
Minor et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-023-02436-0


Searching the ocean for secrets to help fight climate change
Mitchell Crow, Nature, Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-023-00404-7

Snow and land cover induced surface albedo changes in Northeast China during recent decades
Li et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-023-04392-6

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Indigenous peoples and inclusion in the green climate fund
Bertilsson & Soneryd, Environmental Sociology, Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2023.2177091

Science under pressure: how research is being challenged by the 2030 Agenda
Büttner et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01293-5

Vulnerability and loss and damage following the COP27 of the UN framework convention on climate change
Naylor & Ford, Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02033-2

Book reviews

Alex Roberts and Sam Moore. The rise of ecofascism: climate change and the far right
Bernstein, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00808-3

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Starting with Solar: A Preliminary Assessment of Solar Energy Systems in Residential New Construction, Grace Brittan and Ben Hoen, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

New homes provide a ready option for states hoping to reduce energy use, as evidenced by the steady increase in energy efficiency requirements in new home building codes. A less common approach is to specifically encourage or require new homes to produce their own carbon-free energy, through the installation of a solar energy system. Adopting these practices nationwide might significantly reduce new home energy use, but the drivers of the new solar home market have not been well studied. Partly filling this gap, the authors look at historical deployment trends of solar on over 500,000 new homes built through 2020 across 19 states and the District of Columbia, most of which were in California. California is a useful test case because it first incentivized in 2007, and more recently required 2018, new homes to have solar. The authors find that solar adoption rates at roughly 40% in recent years in California eclipse—by a wide margin—rates in other states, which top out near 4%. The presence of California’s New Solar Home Partnership (NSHP) incentives appears strongly correlated with deployment levels, as does builder market share. The top-10 builders in California installed solar in recent years at rates almost three times the average of non-top-10 builders in the state. Interestingly, the authors found the same large builders did not install solar at the same elevated rates outside California, which might be related to the lack of incentives, they hypothesize. The authors also investigate the characteristics of new solar homes, such as living area (i.e., square feet), solar system size, frequency of battery installations, and use of third-party ownership.

Big Ag, Big Oil, and the California Water Crisis, Food & Water Watch

Climate change is wreaking havoc on California’s water stability. The state is mired in long-term drought, punctuated by relatively brief periods of extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding. But the impacts of climate change on state water supplies only tell part of the story. Most of California’s water goes not for individual use, but instead to corporate agricultural and fossil fuel interests (Big Ag and Big Oil). These users reap tremendous profits, while more than 1 million Californians lack access to clean water. California must develop new water policy that makes good on the promise that Californians should have access to clean, reliable water and that stops the expansion of (and begins to roll back) the damaging industries using the most water. The authors map out an approach that would move California, boldly and with justice, into a sustainable water future.

Hydrogen’s Water Problem, Food & Water Watch

Hydrogen is everywhere, but the molecule is n0t often found on its own in nature. To use it for transporting, storing, and delivering energy, you need to isolate hydrogen using other energy sources. That requires a feedstock, often fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas, a chemical reaction powered by energy, and lots of water. The process also uses more water for cooling, water treatment, and disposal. Powering and sourcing hydrogen production with fossil fuels raises water requirements even higher. That is because extracting and processing fossil fuels have their own huge water demands. Given all this, the authors knew that hydrogen production was thirsty. But they were not sure exactly how thirsty — so they did the math. First, they looked at U.S. goals for growing the hydrogen industry. The Department of Energy aims to boost U.S. hydrogen production from 10 million metric tons in 2020 to 50 million metric tons a year by 2050. Then, they looked at a projection of hydrogen production’s energy mix by 2050. One organization projects that, worldwide, two-thirds of hydrogen will come from renewables, and one-third from natural gas in 2050. The authors found that if the U.S. meets its goals with that energy mix, water supplies would be in big trouble. Hydrogen production would gulp down so much water, it would equal the annual water use of 34 million Americans.

Polestar and Rivian pathway report, Kearney

All industries face a significant challenge over the next decade if we are to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, and automotive is no exception. Today, passenger vehicle emissions alone account for 15 percent of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Recognizing this, the automotive industry has taken steps over the past decade to decarbonize. So far, the primary focus for the industry has rightly been on electrification of the fleet, targeting the significant portion (60 to 65 percent for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles) of emissions that come from the tailpipe. The challenge: when modeling a hypothetical well-to-wheel scenario of aggressive battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption, powered by the hypothetical full switch to fossil-free power sources in parallel, there is still a GHG emission overshoot, unless upstream scope 3 (supply chain emissions) are simultaneously tackled. The authors look at well-to-wheel emissions of the projected passenger vehicle fleet globally to 2050, explore the monumental challenges the industry faces, and outline a suite of actions that merit collective action.

The U.S. Hydrogen Demand Action Plan, Bajema et al., Energy Futures Initiative

The authors present a plan to rapidly accelerate hydrogen use across regions and sectors through new policies and industrial strategies, with a focus on leveraging regional hydrogen hubs as growth engines. Recently passed federal laws—the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law—provide unprecedented clean hydrogen support and are expected to significantly reduce clean hydrogen production costs. The authors show that additional measures are necessary to get from those cost reductions to a national, commoditized clean hydrogen market, and now is the time to take action.

Loss and Damage Associated with the Effects of Climate Change: Recent Developments, Jane Leggett, Congressional Research Service

Many low-income countries, especially small island states, have long sought assistance and recourse through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its subsidiary Paris Agreement to cope with climate change-related loss and damage. In the early 1990s, some negotiators of the UNFCCC proposed means to address loss and damage that were not adopted. Now, many Parties and stakeholders view addressing loss and damage as the “third pillar” of climate action, along with GHG mitigation and adaptation.

Why Carbon Capture and Storage Is Not a Net-Zero Solution for Canada’s Oil and Gas Sector, Laura Cameron, and Angela Carter, International Institute for Sustainable Development

Reducing emissions from Canada’s oil and gas production is a priority, yet it presents unique challenges. Industry representatives consider carbon capture and storage (CCS) to be the sector’s primary emission reduction solution, but there is a lack of evidence on the efficacy of this approach and its consistency with Canada’s net-zero commitment. Investing in CCS is a risky investment for taxpayers and comes with a significant opportunity cost for near-term, more cost-effective solutions.

Climate Security Scenarios for Sweden, Erin Sikorsky and Brigitte Hugh, The Center for Climate and Security

In the coming decades, Sweden will face increased security risks due to climate change. These risks stem primarily from climate hazards outside Sweden’s borders, though warming temperatures and increasingly erratic and intense precipitation may strain the country’s domestic military, energy, and economic infrastructure. External climate security game changers for Sweden include the potential for aggressive Russian and Chinese behavior in a more navigable Arctic, strains on the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) due to increase humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) demands, and the potential for reactionary European political responses to climate-related migration from the Middle East and North Africa. These threats are unlikely to develop on straightforward linear pathways, as climate change intersects with other developments to cause cascading or complex risks. Tipping points – whether from climate change or from societal developments – could amplify these risks on a shorter timeline than expected. Navigating these risks requires a whole-of-society approach across Sweden that breaks down planning and programmatic siloes among government ministries, civil society, and the private sector. To that end, in October 2022, the Swedish Defence University and the Center for Climate and Security convened a cross-section of leaders from the military, academia, civil society, and the private sector to explore potential future climate security scenarios for Sweden over the next five years. The authors provide an overview of the key findings of the scenarios discussion, including a discussion of drivers of climate security risk, entry points for action, and further research going forward.

How Can DoD Compare Damage Costs Against Resilience Investment Costs for Climate-Driven Natural Hazards? Overview of an Analytic Approach, Its Advantages, and Its Limitations, Narayanan et al., RAND

There is currently no Department of Defense-validated model or method for systematically comparing climate hazard damage costs against the costs of investing in resilience options. The authors begin to address this gap by assessing the relevance and limitations of this one analytic approach. Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and/or severity of extreme weather events, but it is difficult to predict with certainty which installations will be hit and when, or even by what type of hazard. It is important for DoD to account for this uncertainty by setting priorities for where and how much to invest in installation resilience to climate-driven hazards. Tools such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency's natural hazard analysis tool (Hazus) could be used to further understand the value of investing in installation resilience to climate-driven hazards. In 19 case studies, the annualized cost of a resilience option was compared with the averted damage over that option's lifetime under a variety of disaster scenarios to screen for potentially attractive resilience investment options.

Quantifying the Financial Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Utility Ratepayers and Shareholders, Satchwell, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption is critical for meeting economy-wide decarbonization goals and, as a result, states are considering enabling policies and rate designs to accelerate EV deployment. EVs can provide possible financial upside to electric utilities and ratepayers in several ways. For example, from the utility perspective, EVs could drive increased electricity sales and new earnings opportunities through increased capital investments. From the ratepayer perspective, increased electric loads from EVs could reduce average all-in retail rates. The degree to which there are net benefits or costs to shareholders and/or ratepayers depends on how EVs are integrated and managed through enabling grid investments and charging strategies. Using Berkeley Lab’s Financial Impacts of Distributed Energy Resources (FINDER) model that mimics the electric utility investment planning and rate-making processes, we estimate the utility earnings and customer rate impacts of EVs using a bookend approach of “managed” (i.e., best-case) and “mismanaged” (i.e., worst case) charging strategies for a generic summer-peaking, investor-owned, and vertically integrated utility. The analysis also examines the sensitivity of results to different assumptions of EV deployment characteristics, EV impacts on retail electricity sales, incremental distribution system costs, EV charging location, and utility EV enablement costs (i.e., utility costs to invest in EV charging, controls, and communication to deliver and administer EV programs). The results are intended to inform EV policies and deployment strategies that maximize utility system benefits and minimize ratepayer costs.

Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor 2023, Day et al., NewClimate Institute and Carbon Market Watch

The authors assess the climate strategies of 24 major global companies, critically analyzing the extent to which they demonstrate corporate climate leadership. They evaluate the integrity of climate pledges against good practice criteria to identify examples for replication and highlight areas where improvement is needed. The companies analyzed have put themselves forward as climate leaders. The 24 global companies that were assessed comprise the largest three global companies from eight major-emitting sectors, including only those that are members of an initiative affiliated with the Race to Zero campaign. Through this, they have committed themselves to preparing and implementing decarbonization plans that align with the objective to limit warming to 1.5°C. These companies serve as role models for other large, medium, and small companies around the world. The analysis of these companies should provide the best prospects for the identification of replicable good practices. Scrutiny of their plans is also necessary to identify whether these companies set the right examples. Overall, the climate strategies of 15 of the 24 companies are of low or very low integrity. Most of the companies’ strategies do not represent examples of good practice climate leadership. Companies’ climate change commitments often do not add up to what their pledges might suggest.

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Comments 1 to 4:

  1. By coincidence, Greta Thunberg adresses CCS head-on in a recently (yesterday) published Op-ed that I today posted a link to on the SkS Facebook Page. A key pragraph from Thunberg's Op-ed:

    "Also, the carbon-removal facility in Iceland has some serious scaling up to do. Yet that is clearly not happening, which makes no sense at all. Why foster the idea that this underdeveloped technology could be a substitute for the immediate, drastic mitigation needed? Why bet our entire civilization on it without making the slightest effort to make it work? Why make the world picture a potential solution so vividly that we include it in every possible future scenario and then fail to invest in it? Could it be that it was never even meant to work at scale? That it was just being used — once again — as a way of deflecting attention and delaying any meaningful climate action so that the fossil fuel companies can continue business as usual and keep on making fantasy amounts of money for just a little while longer?"

    Source: Greta Thunberg: Global leaders are dropping the ball on climate change, Op-ed by Greta Thunberg, Winston-Salem Journal, Feb 15, 2023

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  2. Yes indeed, John. 

    Beyond the repugnant cynicism of this tactic in support of the strategy of "prolong monetization for as long as possible,"  it has a notable side-effect, or so I think.

    Something I've observed is that on "our" "right" side there's tendency to conflation of all CO2 removal schemes with the fossil fuel industry's tactical adoption of a particular mode of so doing for purposes other than intended or claimed.

    Leading to (as in some other areas) a spectrum of what are effectively beat-downs of researchers daring to investigate CO2 removal. "They're just greenwashing!" The criticism is ineluctably a form of ad hominem attack, if unpacked at all. 

    Accompanied by "moral hazard" conjectures and "we can't walk and chew gum at the same time" appeals in support of monolithic solutions that as a practical matter can't be executed in an instant. 

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  3. I agree that the highlighted IISD Report “Why Carbon Capture and Storage Is Not a Net-Zero Solution for Canada’s Oil and Gas Sector” is a robust helpful evaluation of the important, but limited scope of, climate impact aspects of fossil fuel activity. In addition to climate impacts, there are other types of harm to consider. And all harms considered, including potential harms like leaks and spills, fossil fuels from oil sands can be more harmful than coal-fired electricity generation (especially if the coke waste from upgrading heavy crude gets burned).

    The future of humanity needs more people to ‘want to learn to be less harmful and more helpful’. That is an ‘eternal need’ because of the potential for misleading marketing to successfully impede learning about what is harmful and unsustainable (keeping people from learning how to be less harmful and more helpful at developing sustainable improvements).

    The misleading marketing problem is the misleading promotion of Positive and Negative perceptions (beliefs) in pursuit of superiority, popularity and profit. Focusing on positive perceptions excuses harm done or distracts from learning about harm (Canadian band The Northern Pikes said it well: She ain’t pretty she just looks that way). And it is also harmful to promote negative perceptions about improved understanding and actions that are more helpful, limit and repair harm done. Creating unjustified fear and anger regarding learning to be less harmful and more helpful is easy when something perceived to be personally desired or beneficial (those positive perceptions) would have to be given up (like people declaring “You Can’t Make Me” when confronted with increased awareness and improved understanding that would make them less harmful and more helpful ‘If they were willing to learn and change their mind and actions for Good Reason’).

    And there is lots of evidence today proving the success of political groups that abuse misleading ‘positive and negative’ marketing (not just the case of Alberta leadership touting the goodness of CCS and Blue Hydrogen while prompting Albertans to fear and be angry about the required rapid transition away from fossil fuel use).

    The highlighted report “Why Carbon Capture and Storage Is Not a Net-Zero Solution for Canada’s Oil and Gas Sector” relates to the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023 that is Story of the Week in News Roundup #5. The actions of Canada’s leadership, especially the leadership in Alberta, are why the Hamburg 2023 Outlook indicates that there is a ‘very low' likelihood that Canada will achieve its current Paris Agreement NDCs which, btw, need to be significantly ratcheted up if limiting impacts to 2.0 C max is to be plausible (figure 6 on page 92, but note that the figure does not indicate how helpful the NDCs are. Russia is shown to very likely meet its NDCs because the Russian NDCs are easier to achieve because they are very far below what is required).

    The Hamburg 2023 Outlook painstakingly presents the understanding that it is not plausible that impacts will be limited to 1.5 C. And Canada’s anti-leadership on the matter is a significant part of the problem (pursuing short-term gain and excusing it by claiming things like ‘Everybody else is doing it ’ and ‘It would be foolish not to try to maximize the benefit obtained from a harmful natural resource exploitation opportunity’. Those attitudes are worse than the Tragedy of the Commons attitudes).

    Attempts to excuse or put a positive spin on the harmful actions, and claiming that actions to reduce harm done are ‘harmful or foolish, and to be feared and be angry about’, are a systemic developed problem. The developed systems and institutions produce harmful results and a lack of helpful action. They will not responsibly limit and repair harm done.

    That connects to the Greta Thunberg Oped that John Hartz @1 pointed to. CCS in Canada is different from the CCS in the Iceland example that Greta talks about. The Iceland operations removes Carbon from the atmosphere and locks it away. That type of operation is needed because keeping impacts below 1.5 C is no longer plausible. Removing CO2 from the atmosphere is now necessary to bring the peak impact level back down to 1.5 C as rapidly as possible. CCS for fossil fuel combustion and Blue Hydrogen production used for fossil fuel production is a temporary measure at best. But Canadian leadership, especially in Alberta, try to claim their CCS and Blue Hydrogen are helpful sustainable improvements. They fully expect to continue to operate and export fossil fuel feed stock far past 2050. They need a longer future for exporting oil sands stuff to make the investments in CCS and Blue Hydrogen appear to be good investments. The business community seem to know those investments are ‘bad bets’. That is why government subsidy is required.

    The case of misleading marketing about CCS is well presented in the IISD report. But is more to be understood regarding Hydrogen. Blue Hydrogen is not great Hydrogen. It is better than Grey Hydrogen. But Green Hydrogen is the type of Hydrogen with a future. More importantly, the way the hydrogen is produced, its colour code, is not the only consideration. How the hydrogen is used also matters. Using it as a fuel source to displace fossil fuel use is the required and sustainable use. Using it to produce fossil fuels is harmful, no matter what colour it is (no matter how it is obtained).

    The following are two key statements from the IISD Report:

    “As of September 2022, only 30 commercial CCS projects are operating across all sectors around the world, capturing 42.5 Mtpa. This falls far short of the IEA’s (2009) previous target of 300 Mtpa by 2020. Most proposed projects have been withdrawn: of the 149 CCS projects anticipated to be storing carbon by 2020, over 100 were cancelled or placed on indefinite hold (Abdulla et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2021). In the United States, despite significant industry and government investment in the technology, more than 80% of proposed CCS projects have failed to become operational due to high costs, low technological readiness, the lack of a credible financial return, and dependence on government incentives that are withdrawn (Abdulla et al., 2020). Of those projects that are operating globally, 73% of the carbon captured is used for EOR (Robertson & Mousavian, 2022).”

    "The opportunity cost of investing in CCS and the risk of stranded assets for Canada’s oil and gas sector will intensify as global climate ambition ratchets up and demand for oil and gas declines. Ultimately, addressing emissions in the oil and gas sector will be critical in the short term, but scaling up alternative energy systems to allow a smooth shift away from oil and gas production will be essential for long-term, economy-wide decarbonization.”

    The Hamburg Outlook robustly presents that what needs to happen will not happen without significant systemic change. The future of humanity will continue to be more seriously harmed as long as leaders can become/remain popular by being misleading: Promoting a focus on positive perceptions to impede increased awareness of harm done and promoting negative perceptions about the actions that achieve the required limit of harm done and repair of excessive harm done (more than 1.5 C impacts due to a lack of responsible leadership actions – excused because of the popularity of claims like ‘all leaders are behaving harmfully irresponsibly’ and ‘others are the problem’).

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  4. Thanks for making those excellent connections, OPOF, particularly forming the deep connection between Cameron & Carter's report and the HCF 'how are we doing?" cold bath.

    The Hamburg report is something we naturally want to turn away from, perhaps because it bolsters what for many of us has become more than a sneaking suspicion. 

    As we pointed out last week (?) when we featured it, it does hinge on a stipulation that is not even at this late date set in stone: "given the observable trajectories of social drivers." I wish we could feel more optimistic that we were collectively at the wheel and driving our society with a shared map. 

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