Arguments
Donald Trump has consistently expressed his conspiratorial and misinformed beliefs that global warming is a hoax.
Ice storm rolls from Texas to Tennessee - I'm in Los Angeles and it's freezing. Global warming is a total, and very expensive, hoax!
Trump is also the presumptive Republican Party nominee for president in 2016, and were he elected, would be the leader of the country with the second-highest net carbon pollution in the world. These are frightening thoughts.
However, as reported by Politico, Trump acknowledges the reality and threats posed by human-caused global warming when it comes to protecting his own assets, and in keeping with his affinity for building walls:
The New York billionaire is applying for permission to erect a coastal protection works to prevent erosion at his seaside golf resort, Trump International Golf Links & Hotel Ireland, in County Clare.
A permit application for the wall, filed by Trump International Golf Links Ireland and reviewed by POLITICO, explicitly cites global warming and its consequences — increased erosion due to rising sea levels and extreme weather this century — as a chief justification for building the structure.
The permit was filed by an Irish environmental consulting company, so it’s possible that Trump himself denies these scientific realities. However, the consultants are indisputably correct about the threat that global warming and sea level rise pose to this golf course, and to the many other coastal properties owned by Donald Trump.
Is Trump playing his voters for fools?
Trump’s public comments on climate change may reflect a political calculation that the old, white, conservative, American men who comprise his voter base also form the predominant segment of the climate denial movement. Or perhaps Trump is indeed in denial about the science himself, but those who protect his assets, such as this Irish environmental consulting firm, are not.
Trump also has the wealth necessary to blunt some of the impacts of climate change, for example by building sea walls, whereas poorer countries, which will bear the brunt of the consequences of climate denial, do not possess these resources. These poorer countries also contribute the least to the problem, whereas Trump opposes “so-called green energy” technologies like solar and wind power that are critical for wealthy countries to reduce their much higher carbon pollution.
In fact, Trump has fought to prevent the construction of wind farms along the coasts of Scotland and Ireland. Yet despite his misinformed objections that wind energy is too costly, Trump has invested in one of the world’s largest generators of wind power.
The next president of the United States will be tasked with ensuring the country meets its pledge to cut carbon pollution, made during the recent international climate negotiations in Paris. Trump has claimed that at a minimum he will renegotiate the agreement, which would be a disaster if true. However, a clause in the agreement forces signatory nations to wait at least four years before withdrawing, and a renegotiation simply will not happen. Trump’s threats may simply be bluster, since he’s running as the candidate who will make good deals for America, and the Paris climate accords are a “deal” (as Joe Romm put it, “a ridiculously good deal for the United States”) that he can exploit for political gain.
Or is Trump so uninformed as to believe what he says?
Or perhaps Donald Trump believes everything that comes out of his mouth. Social psychologist David Dunning posits that Trump and his supporters may suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect:
To sum it up, the knowledge and intelligence that are required to be good at a task are often the same qualities needed to recognize that one is not good at that task—and if one lacks such knowledge and intelligence, one remains ignorant that one is not good at that task.
Indeed, when it comes to climate change, social science research has shown that American conservatives who express the highest confidence in their opinions about climate science and risks are the most wrong. They’re confident in their denial precisely because they don’t know enough to realize how uninformed they are about climate science. This is the Dunning-Kruger effect. As Dunning wrote for Politico:
This syndrome may well be the key to the Trump voter—and perhaps even to the man himself. Trump has served up numerous illustrative examples of the effect as he continues his confident audition to be leader of the free world even as he seems to lack crucial information about the job ... some voters, especially those facing significant distress in their life, might like some of what they hear from Trump, but they do not know enough to hold him accountable for the serious gaffes he makes. They fail to recognize those gaffes as missteps.
Americans’ relative lack of knowledge about global warming appears to be helping Trump make misinformed, conspiratorial comments about climate change without repercussions in the polls.
Concern about climate change (0-6 point scale) vs. average correct score on questions relevant to its causes in six countries. Illustration: Dana Nuccitelli, data from Shi et al. (2016).
I think there's less cause for panic than the author states. Mr. Trump appears to have no fixed beliefs, other than in publicity and public image. He was a Democrat for longer than he's been a Republican, and has flop-flipped on virtually every issue. The one view he's never espoused is that of the Gramsci school: "Western civilization +/or the USA is the Great Satan of modern times".
If he's convinced that CC is bad for the USA and/or that >50% of the public demands it, he'll be all in for dealing with climate change. If the public is not amenable, he'll declare it's a hoax. At the moment, he's treating it as a culture wars issue. Since most people dislike science and form their opinions about scientific issues based on emotion, he may have a practical strategy.
I believe the way to succeed in promoting wisdom about climate change is to stick with the science, and let the political circus play itself out with only short, pointed and factual input for the scientific community.
If the world decides to roll the dice and see what 5 degrees brings about, it may be very uncomfortable for hominids for a short blip in history, but the Earth will take little notice and over a mere few thousand years will recycle the atmospheric carbon toward abyssal depths. Lets hope wisdom prevails instead, but it can't be forced.
DrivingBy @1.
I couldn't disagree more. You say not to be worried about Trump, then basically imply we should put our faith in Trumps personal decision on climate change, or he will just wave like the breeze and go with public opinion! Surely those are both good reasons to be worried? In order not to be worried, we need to see a Presidential candidate that accepts the overwhelming scientific consensus and we need to see it now, not wait for him to possibly get there eventually.
You correctly note that Trump seems to have no bottom line beliefs except his own self promotion. Surely this is another reason to be worried?
You say 5 degrees will be very uncomfortable for a short blip of history but the world will go on. There's not much comfort in this.
Nobody is trying to force wisdom. We have instead got to do all we can to convince people and raise awareness. This is a different thing from forcing anyone.
Carbogasm: Trump Energy Speech
I’ve followed Trump for years. When he came out as an advocate of the Birther meme I couldn’t imagine what he was up to. He went on to solidify his support among right wing working folks and the bigots within the Republican Party. Those folks have been voting Republican since Reagan who used all the dog whistles to cement their support.
Issues like AGW, immigration, gay rights and other culture issues have captured them and Donald Trump, I believe was able to feel their heart beat.
After decades those Republicans have come to realize that the Republican establishment has done nothing for them and Trump has cashed in.
If you’re familiar with the old Trump you know he’s proposed things in the past like a onetime wealth tax and increased taxes on the rich. He was always prochoice.
We’ve seen recently that he’s now starting to once again rearrange his beliefs. His campaign positions he now claims “were just suggestions.” All the red meat he’s been feeding to right wing conservatives has gotten him enough now to be the Republican standard bearer. My guess, and I may be wrong, is he doesn’t believe any of what he’s been espousing.
I don’t want to make the Hitler comparison. I don’t think Trumps a Hitler but in the 1930’s he ran as a family values guy who claimed to be anti-abortion and a socialist and of course he was neither. He was going to make Germany great again. We know that what he was a demagogue who had his own agenda.
I won’t predict but I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump starts to reposition himself on issues like AGW. His pedigree is the antithesis of people he’s now in league with.
Stranger @4, I do not expect Trump to move very far towards rational policies, for doing so will loose him the popular support he has. This remains a factor in his potential presidency if he wants to run a second term, and/or if he wants cooperation from a Republican dominated congress.
The Hitler comparison is certainly inapt because, firstly, he has no brown shirts. Secondly, and more importantly, the constitutional protections in the US are far stronger than those of the Weimar Republic. Even Hitler could not do in the modern US, what Hitler did in Germany in the 1930s.
The "Trump phenomenon" is not just a case of climate science (in fact scinece in general) ignorance, but the broad ignorance of any social, economic, ethical, political (you name it) rules our democratic society has developed. The rise of such presidential candidade (totally unfit for the job he applies for) from GOP, only testifies how far that party alienated themslves from their voters. Voters decided to push for such paranoid, preposterous candidate, because they dislike all GOP mainstream candidates. It does not bid well to GOP future.
But that is not the aspect to be discussed here in SkS. It would've been much better if "Trump phenomenon" in particular exposed the climate science denial in GOP. It looks like, given a strong denial among GOP leaders, a candidate even moderately accepting AGW had no chance there: only the total and open ignorant like Trump had.
If such preposterous & ignorant man became next president later this year, it would be a world disaster in many aspects, particularly in climate mitigation as he wants to effectively pull US out of Paris agreement. There is no doubt about him doing that, because in face of presures from his own party and FF industries, pulling out is the easiest thing to do for an ignorant man. Such presidency would indicate US voters escape to the irrational mumblings of a beauty pageant minder and political puppet show, in preference of facing their economic and environmental problems. I hope such disaster do not happen.
Climate Change is bigger than Trump!
When he says market forces are a beautiful thing he is abrogating responsibility knowing that is how he wins the popular vote. It's not statesmanship, to be sure, but he's saying market forces and regulation from the greater world will force everyone's hand to price the externality that needs to be priced.
...it's not statesmanship but it is business!
The priority for America is to remain business savvy and retain some sort of middle-class dream otherwise they are in Anarchy and I think we all realise nobody wants that.
Hmnnn, I think I almost convinced myself he is doing what is right!
(...it is the human condition to abrogate responsibility I seem to be arguing!)
Remember what Arnold Schwarzenegger said: "The people lead, ..Governments follow!"
The middle-class have their pizza and talking head circus.... None of us care! The kids were just an excuse to put money into bricks and mortar and play the, "I'm Brad Pitt and you're Elle MacPherson" , game of dressed up charades.
What is a critical-mass again?
The comments here are focussing on Donald Trump rather than on the American voters. Why is Trump so popular? Why, if Climate Change is so important to mankind, are Americans voting in droves for a presidential candidate who considers it a hoax? Clearly Trump is having "a bob each way" as his actions to protect his personal property and wealth are at odds with his statements on climate change. But it seems that at the moment Trump, for whatever reasons, resonates with the American voter despite, or perhaps because of, his views on climate change
Haze@9,
No, or unkown yet. I would rather say "Trump resonates with the republican voter". How he resonates with American vover in general, will be revealed in November. It is e.g. perfectly probable, that most republican voters, given a choice between Trump and Rubio/Cruz and others, are so fed up that they chose the insane Trump. Some of them even declared that they will vote for democrat despite their allegiance. So a landslide victory of a democratic candidate (presumably Clinton) in November would not be surprising if such sentiments were the real cause of the "Trump phenomenon".
Many are buying in to a false dichotomy. There will be more than two choices for President.
This election may be the best chance for a third-party candidate to win. Hundreds of thousands of Republican voters have registered with the Libertarian Party since Trump became the presumptive nominee. There are hundreds of thousands of Democrats who have stated that they will not vote for Clinton.
If a third-party candidate can win a few states and get a few electoral votes then possibly no candidate will get the required 270 to win election. If that happens, due to an obscure constitutional mandate the House will have to pick the President from amongst the top three electoral vote getters.
With the current political climate, the Republican-controlled House might not pick Trump because most don't like him. They definitely wouldn't pick Clinton. So, they could pick the third choice (Gary Johnson?) as a compromise.
dalesmith
Irrespective of the arcana of the US presidential electoral system (and it does seem to an outsider to be extremely arcane), surely the issue is less the Presidency, and more the make-up of the Congress. A President alone can actually do diddly-squat!
dalesmith - Under the current conditions, any third party candidate could only act as a spoiler for the mainstream candidate they are closest to in outlook. And at this point I don't see any possibility of a late third party candidate drumming up enough support to split things enough to have a contested election.
If they somehow did, given the current makeup of the House of Representatives and the outsized influence of Tea-Party Republicans, I would consider that outcome nothing short of disaster for the US.
The only possible third-party candidate I might consider strong enough to invoke that disaster is Sanders - and I suspect he's intelligent enough to know what a mess that would cause.
Glenn Tamblyn:
You wrote: A President alone can actually do diddly-squat!
I repectfully disagree.
First and foremost, the U.S. President can at any time push the button to launch missles with nuclear warheads.
Given Trump's unstable personality, the thought of him having this power should send shivers up and down one's spin.
John Hartz @14, much as I despise Donald Trump, I do not think he is literally insane. Therefore I do not think he would use the nuclear option.
What he is likely to do, if elected, is to trash the system of alliances that the US has built up since WW2 and which contribute to it being so dominant a global power. He will alienate allies, and trash the USA's chances of significant international cooperation on any point. He may also involve the US in conventional wars on, essentially, a whim.
Of greater concern is what he is likely to do the US economy. The reforms he will push, and which will likely gain support in a Republican dominated congress, will distort the economy in favour of the wealthy at the expense of the middle class, workers, and the poor. He may bring back some manufacturing by trashing NAFTA and bullying Mexico, but the real manufacturing deficit of the US is relative to the Asian giants (particularly China and Japan) who hold a significant portion of US foreign debt. If he pushes too hard, they may decide to retaliate by closing of the easy credit the US currently relies on, forcing a US depression worse than that of 1927. I don't think it will come to that, but if follows that Trump will not revive US manufacturing as he claims he will.
Trump cannot make America great again, as it still is great. He can certainly impoverish and weaken the US relative to Russia and China, and that is the most likely outcome of his policies.
John@4
Let's also remember that US president signs all decisions of Congress into law. And he can refuse to sign anything that he does not like. that's a lot of power, even though Congree can subsequently overrule his refusal under some conditions. E.g. let's keep in mind that Obama famouly stopped KXL pipeline using that very power and Congress did not have enough numbers to overrule him. Had Trump been a president at the time, he would hapilly have signed it, and we would have KXL flowing full steam now.
Donald Trump makes people across the U.S. political spectrum quite nervous — and with good cause.
For example...
Donald J. Trump’s blustery attacks on the press, complaints about the judicial system and bold claims of presidential power collectively sketch out a constitutional worldview that shows contempt for the First Amendment, the separation of powers and the rule of law, legal experts across the political spectrum say.
Even as much of the Republican political establishment lines up behind its presumptive nominee, many conservative and libertarian legal scholars warn that electing Mr. Trump is a recipe for a constitutional crisis.
“Who knows what Donald Trump with a pen and phone would do?” asked Ilya Shapiro, a lawyer with the libertarian Cato Institute.
With five months to go before Election Day, Mr. Trump has already said he would “loosen” libel laws to make it easier to sue news organizations. He has threatened to sic federal regulators on his critics. He has encouraged rough treatment of demonstrators.
His proposal to bar Muslims from entry into the country tests the Constitution’s guarantees of religious freedom, due process and equal protection.
And, in what was a tipping point for some, he attacked Judge Gonzalo P. Curiel of the Federal District Court in San Diego, who is overseeing two class actions against Trump University.
Mr. Trump accused the judge of bias, falsely said he was Mexican and seemed to issue a threat.
“They ought to look into Judge Curiel, because what Judge Curiel is doing is a total disgrace,” Mr. Trump said. “O.K.? But we will come back in November. Wouldn’t that be wild if I am president and come back and do a civil case?”
Donald Trump Could Threaten U.S. Rule of Law, Scholars Say, Adam Liptak, New York Times, June 3, 2016
In marked contrast to most commentators both here and in the wider community, Janet Albrechtsen in todays Weekend Australian (http://tinyurl.com/j5al372) has looked at the reasons for Trump polling so well across the US. This comment of hers sums up the approach of many to Trump "
"Rather than depicting Trump supporters as angry channel surfing reality TV deadbeats, what about explaining to Australians the genuine concerns of millions of American voters? And when will the regular Sunday morning snickering about Trump on Insiders give way to thoughtful analysis?" Good for Albrechtsen who has considered the reasons for Trumps success an approach to which I referred in my comment @9 made some time ago. There are many in many Western countries, who are sick of the politicsl correctness enforced by the "latte sipping left" and who feel entirely abandoned by their major political parties"
Haze - Actually, Trump supporters are best characterized by one common trait, that of the authoritarian mindset; a belief in absolute obedience to authority. Linked with simplistic thinking, intolerance of ambiguity, and racial prejudice, it is the sole statistically significant variable linked to support for Trump. See articles on this link here and here, as well as many others.
Unfortunately, this trait in a leader bodes poorly for issues with shades of gray, adherence to constitutions, and for that matter the rule of law - many of his statements would lead straight to constitutional violations, interference with the judicial branch, and for that matter foreign policies that could be described as war crimes (stating we should just attack the families of those in ISIS, which would be an illegal order to the military). Simplistic absolute statements (particularly those with little relation to reality, such as Trumps - he seems willing to say absolutely anything to appeal to whoever is in front of him) don't do well with the shades of gray and complexities of actual life and politics. While spouting such simplistic statements seems appealing to those who feel disenfranchised, it's no way to run a country.
Seriously, this is a man who in a national debate went on about the size of his genitalia. Perhaps not the best choice to lead the US...
Haze, I dont know that imparts a better impression of Trump supporters. It seems that he has made it okay to be a misogynist, racist bigot and violent into bargain. I dont drink latte and could only be considered "leftie" in extreme parts of the world (maybe some midwest States but I dont know the USA), but I would much rather sit down with them then those trapped in history with attitudes that have had only negative impact on humanity. You seriously think political parties should be paying court to such dinosaurs? Concerns about jobs and uneasy about change, I can understand. Racism and tribalism masquerading as christianity, I cannot.
scaddenp - From the first link I gave above:
That's certainly the attitudes Trump supporters have been showing. I think the appeal is the _simplicity_ and clarity of the leaders claims, regardless of any other value such as being true, or even sane.
Mods, I have accidentally downgraded Haze@18 post, for which I'm sorry beacause the interface does not allow me to bring it back to "zero". It'd be good the interface be improved to allow me to correct my mistake. It only allows me to flip my grading back to "thumb up". The post/question is fair but does not add any value to this thread, so does not deserve "thumb up". So I left it "thumb down".
I seem not to have communicated what I was hoping to do. The point I was trying to make is not whether commenters here or elsewhere, do or don't like Trump or his supporters but that someone (Albrechtsen) has had the wit to focus on why Americans are voting for Trump. And chriskoz at 18 surely that is entirely germane to this thread.
My apologies. I have just read a piece in yesterday's Australian Financial Review (paywalled) by T J Pempel Professor of Political Science at University of California Berkeley. In this piece, writtten for an audience in Asia' He does address the question for which I have been trying to elicit answers.
He commences "Virtually every Asian academic, business leader, policymaker or taxi driver I have encountered in the past six months has, within minutes, pummelled me for answers to the Trump question.
They are flabbergasted that a man so bereft of political experience, foreign policy know-how and macroeconomic basics, who radiates disdain for foreigners, women and the disabled, has come to dominate the American political dialogue. Bemused befuddlement at a self-aggrandising buffoon has given way to ripening anxiety that he may well become the next occupant of the Oval Office, unleashing disastrous consequences for economic and security relations across the Asia-Pacific.
There are four points that Asians must understand about the Trump phenomenon."
"First Driving American voters today is a toxic cocktail of anger at what appears to be a rigged economic system serviced by a self-serving political class. Fraudulent financiers crashed the economy in 2008 but got huge bonuses instead of jail cells. Corporations and top executives offshored the manufacturing jobs that once provided stable middle-class lifestyles for swaths of the American public. The social safety net is frayed, infrastructure is collapsing and costly education provides little guarantee of upward mobility. Meanwhile, Washington politicians serve wealthy donors while the government spends trillions of dollars on losing wars in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq."
"Second, Trump is the logical consequence of decades of Republican Party actions. Richard Nixon's "Southern strategy" drew in white voters upset about programs that enhanced minority electoral and social power or challenged the views of evangelical Christians. Since then, the Republican Party has gained voter support by promising to reverse what many see as the erosion of traditional American values."
"The third point is that Trump could win. America's punditry has not been short of predictions about how the Trump campaign is certain to go down in flames. The Republican establishment is split. The party's support level has plummeted. The Democratic Party has a built-in Electoral College advantage that will be bolstered by bipartisan waves of voters appalled at the prospect of a Trump presidency. Such claims certainly make a powerful case for Trump's defeat.
Yet the pundits now predicting a Trump thumping are the same ones who argued that he could not get more than 10 per cent of the Republican primary vote, that the Republican establishment would not "allow" a Trump nomination or that media exposition of his inconsistencies would doom his candidacy. All such predictions have proven hollow."
"Finally, a Trump presidency would be catastrophic for Asia. His campaign is bereft of foreign policy expertise and numerous experienced Republican operatives have declared their unabashed opposition to him. Would some of them join a Trump administration? Quite possibly, but hardly in the numbers needed to offset Trump's "America first" prioritisation.
Economic relationships from regional trade pacts to multilateral institutions are likely to become fodder for Trump's self-proclaimed expertise as a deal maker. So too are decades-long alliances, America's longstanding commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, its nuanced efforts to balance engagement with hedging in China policy and the determination to balance US military muscularity with diplomatic sensitivity"
The author does not cmment on Climate Change
Haze - You might consider highlighting the important points you see in such articles, rather than block copying entire articles without any interpretation. TL;DR.
Yes, there is considerable dissatisfaction with current US politics; the current Legislature is gridlocked, the Tea Party represents the worst of manufactured movements intended to prevent legislation, and the amount of money going into elections is by itself a corrupting influence. But that doesn't change the fact that the common elementins Trump supporters are liking simplistic authoritarian statements promising no change, with woe to those who disagree.
KR @25 Fair enough but if I did that someone could and likely would, accuse me of selective editing. I agree there is a lot there but although it is not climate change orientated it does believable commentary on what is driving many US voters into the arms of a man who is no friend of those who are supporters of action to address climate change.
Personally, I think that the sense of how much damage Trump could overtly do is over-stated. The government has a lot of formal checks.
But the informal checks available to the system to stymie a truly bad presient are enormous. 'Yes Mr President, we have the executive order, but SEAL TEAM 5 en-route to the target zone had to abort due to smoke in the cockpit (from some toilet paper they lit because I told them to)"
If Trump tried to do many of the things he talks about, the phrase 'It's lonely at the top' may take on a whole new meaning.
Because at the end of the day, Trump isn't Putin. If Trump's behaviour suggested he was a cold-hearted, dead-fish scary bastard like Putin who also could work a crowd, then be very afraid. But he isn't Putin.
The Donald knows how to close the deal. He knows f@c&-All about what to do after that - as his business track-record shows.
The real threat Trump poses is what damage his paralysis, failure, and emotive ineptitude in office might cause.
His overt actions don't count - the intitutions of America, formal and informal are too strong for that.
But the incidental consequences of his floundering around. Oh My God.
Hilary Clinton may be struggling to match The Donald as a cheap carney salesmanperson. But she, and many others, will give him a master-class in how to use systems to rip someones heart out after he is in office. Parts of the Republican machine know how to do this. The Donald is ignoring them.