Posted on 1 September 2018 by John Hartz

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Most land-based ecosystems worldwide risk ‘major transformation’ due to climate change

Researchers compiled and evaluated pollen and plant-fossil records from nearly 600 sites worldwide for their study of vegetation change. Map reprinted with permission from Nolan et al., Science, 2018 (10.1126/science.aan5360).

Without dramatic reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions, most of the planet’s land-based ecosystems—from its forests and grasslands to the deserts and tundra—are at high risk of “major transformation” due to climate change, according to a new study from an international research team.

The researchers used fossil records of global vegetation change that occurred during a period of post-glacial warming to project the magnitude of ecosystem transformations likely in the future under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

They found that under a “business as usual” emissions scenario, in which little is done to rein in heat-trapping greenhouse-gas emissions, vegetation changes across the planet’s wild landscapes will likely be more far-reaching and disruptive than earlier studies suggested.

The changes would threaten global biodiversity and derail vital services that nature provides to humanity, such as water security, carbon storage and recreation, according to study co-author Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan.

“If we allow climate change to go unchecked, the vegetation of this planet is going to look completely different than it does today, and that means a huge risk to the diversity of the planet,” said Overpeck, who conceived the idea for the study with corresponding author Stephen T. Jackson of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Most land-based ecosystems worldwide risk ‘major transformation’ due to climate change, Michigan News (University of Michigan), Aug 30, 2018

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