Arguments
Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation
Global warming is real and human-caused. It is leading to large-scale climate change. Under the guise of climate "skepticism", the public is bombarded with misinformation that casts doubt on the reality of human-caused global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming "skepticism".
Our mission is simple: debunk climate misinformation by presenting peer-reviewed science and explaining the techniques of science denial, discourses of climate delay, and climate solutions denial.
Show your Stripes Day on June 21 2025
Posted on 20 June 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Every year on 21st June we encourage everyone to participate in "Show your Stripes Day" to start conversations about climate risks and solutions. Springboarding from a crocheted blanket created by fellow University of Reading professor Ellie Highwood, the "warming stripes" graphic was created in 2018 by Prof. Ed Hawkins, who explains the visualization's purpose in this video:
The "warming stripes" have been embraced around the world as a clear and vivid representation of how the climate is changing-- a powerful appeal to urgency in addressing our climate crisis.
From the website of the University of Reading:
What is Show Your Stripes Day?
Show Your Stripes Day is a global moment to share our concern about how the climate is changing and the need for urgent action.
We ask everyone to share the famous “warming stripes”, a powerful visual representation of how temperatures have increased around the world since the industrial revolution. Created by climate scientist Professor Ed Hawkins at the University of Reading, each stripe represents one year. The colours transition from cool blues to warm reds to represent the increases in temperature seen throughout the past 150 years or more.
On 21 June we call on individuals, businesses, and cities around the world to highlight their local climate stripes and share the powerful message they convey.
Why is it important?
Show Your Stripes Day provides a simple, yet impactful way to communicate the reality of climate change. By condensing decades of temperature data into a series of recognisable stripes, it makes understanding global warming accessible to all, from being able to recreate the stripes in schools, to sharing local stripes across social media.
The stripes have also been important for striking up global conversations. In the past, on this day, they have been displayed in a wide range of prominent public spaces, from Times Square, New York, to the While Cliffs of Dover, UK. By displaying the stripes in locations worldwide, people have been inspired to download and share the stripes online and help spread their message.
2024 was the warmest year on record globally. Extreme weather events continue to be seen more frequently around the world. Never has the need to address climate change been more urgent.
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25 2025
Posted on 19 June 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Human influence on climate detectable in the late 19th century, Santer et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
When could scientists have first known that fossil fuel burning was significantly altering global climate? We attempt to answer this question by performing a thought experiment with model simulations of historical climate change. We assume that the capability to monitor global-scale changes in atmospheric temperature existed as early as 1860 and that the instruments available in this hypothetical world had the same accuracy as today’s satellite-borne microwave radiometers. We then apply a pattern-based “fingerprint” method to disentangle human and natural effects on climate. A human-caused stratospheric cooling signal would have been identifiable by approximately 1885, before the advent of gas-powered cars. Our results suggest that a discernible human influence on atmospheric temperature has likely existed for over 130 y.
Facebook algorithm’s active role in climate advertisement delivery, Sankaranarayanan et al., Nature Climate Change
Climate advertising on social media can shape attitudes towards climate change. Delivery algorithms, as key actors in the climate communication ecosystem, determine ad audience selection and might introduce demographic bias. Here, we present a two-part study—an observational analysis (n = 253,125) and a field experiment (M = 650)—to investigate algorithmic bias in Facebook’s climate ad dissemination. Our findings provide preliminary evidence that the algorithm’s selection of ad audiences can be explained by factors such as ad content, audience location (US states), gender and age group. Moreover, the cost-effectiveness of contrarian ads is linked with the conservative political alignment of a state, while the cost-effectiveness of advocacy ads correlates with liberal political alignment, higher population and per-capita gross domestic product; ad targeting strategies further modulate these effects. The skew in the distribution of climate ads across US states, age groups and genders reinforces existing climate attitudes.
Political differences in climate change knowledge and their association with climate attitudes, behavior, and policy support, Stockus and Zell, Journal of Environmental Psychology
Liberals are more likely to believe that climate change is a serious matter that requires immediate action than conservatives. Nonetheless, little is known about why this political difference in attitudes occurs. We tested whether liberals have superior knowledge about climate change than conservatives and whether political differences in knowledge are associated with climate attitudes (total N = 649, Prolific). In a U.S. sample, Study 1 found that Democrats had better knowledge about climate change than Republicans. Additionally, there was an indirect association of political party with climate attitudes and support for climate policies through knowledge. Study 2 replicated these findings and found a similar indirect association with climate change mitigation behaviors. Study 3 partially replicated the above effects in the UK. Although limited by use of cross-sectional designs, these data suggest that knowledge about climate change is associated with political differences in climate attitudes, behavior, and policy support.
How media competition fuels the spread of misinformation, Amini et al., Science Advances
Competition among news sources over public opinion can incentivize them to resort to misinformation. Sharing misinformation may lead to a short-term gain in audience engagement but ultimately damages the credibility of the source, resulting in a loss of audience. To understand the rationale behind news sources sharing misinformation, we model the competition between sources as a zero-sum sequential game, where news sources decide whether to share factual information or misinformation. Each source influences individuals based on their credibility, the veracity of the article, and the individual’s characteristics. We analyze this game through the concept of quantal response equilibrium, which accounts for the bounded rationality of human decision-making. The analysis shows that the resulting equilibria reproduce the credibility-opinion distribution of real-world news sources, with hyperpartisan sources spreading the majority of misinformation. Our findings provide insights for policymakers to mitigate the spread of misinformation and promote a more factual information landscape.
From this week's government/NGO section:
[By chance this edition's collection includes a group of reports particularly indicative of general and significant misalignment between priorities of politicians versus the people they serve.]
Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Spring 2025, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University
This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey. Interview dates: May 1 -12, 2025. Interviews: 1,040 adults (18+), 915 of whom are registered to vote. Average margin of error for registered voters: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. 52% of registered voters think global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress. 64% of registered voters think developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress. Majorities of registered voters support a range of policies to reduce carbon pollution and promote clean energy. These include, 88% support federal funding to help farmers improve practices to protect and restore the soil so it absorbs and stores more carbon; 80% support funding more research into renewable energy sources; 75% support regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant; 71% support tax credits or rebates to encourage people to buy electric appliances, such as heat pumps and induction stoves; 67% support transitioning the U.S. economy from fossil fuels to 100% clean energy by 2050 ; and 63% support requiring fossil fuel companies to pay for the damages caused by global warming.
New Zealand at climate change crossroads, AMI, State and NZI, IAG New Zealand
New Zealanders are expecting more extreme weather events as a result of climate change. They want more to be done to reduce the risks and costs of these events to help keep insurance affordable and available. 90% of New Zealanders anticipate more extreme storms, 89% foresee more frequent and intense flooding, and 88% expect coastal flooding due to rising sea levels. As New Zealanders brace for a future shaped by more frequent and severe climate events, many expect the cost of these events to be reflected in insurance premiums.
Voters Are Concerned About Rising Costs and Think Climate Change Will Financially Affect Them, Brynne Robbins and Elias Kemp, Data for Progress
Voters nearly universally believe that energy and environmental issues are important to address. This holds across party lines: 95% of Democrats, 94% of Independents, and 88% of Republicans indicate that energy and environmental issues are either important or a top priority to them. However, the degree of importance varies significantly with party affiliation. Nearly half (49%) of Democrats say energy and environmental issues are a top priority, while only a third (33%) of Independents and just under a quarter (23%) of Republicans feel the same. When asked whether they believe climate change will have a direct financial impact on them and their family, a majority (58%) of likely voters say it will impact them either greatly or somewhat. Democrats most commonly believe this, with 73% saying that they will be either greatly or somewhat impacted, while only 41% of Republicans believe the same. Just 52% of white voters predict they’ll be impacted, compared with 64% of Black voters and 73% of Latino voters. Women (62%), voters under 45 (66%), and voters with a college degree (60%) also predict greater financial impact.
Two-thirds of Canadians favour developing clean energy over fossil fuels, while 85% wish to maintain or increase federal climate action, Abacus Data, Clean Energy Canada
Two-thirds of Canadians say they would prioritize clean over conventional energy. Specifically, 67% of respondents say that, assuming both were priorities, they would generally favor clean energy projects such as critical minerals, renewable power and transmission, and energy storage. The remaining 33% would prefer conventional fossil fuel projects like oil and gas, including LNG development. Asked how crucial the two energy sectors will be to the Canadian economy over the next decade, 87% say clean energy will be very (45%) or pretty (42%) important, while 83% say fossil fuels will be very (36%) or pretty (47%) important. In other words, the four-point advantage for clean energy increases to nine points among those who see at least one of these sectors as “very important.”
156 articles in 66 journals by 932 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Observation-based estimate of Earth’s effective radiative forcing, Van Loon et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2425445122
The role of aerosol declines in recent warming
Posted on 18 June 2025 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink
Over at Carbon Brief I have a new detailed explainer on aerosols. They have a major (but poorly constrained) cooling effect on the climate, masking about 0.5C warming from CO2 and other greenhouse gases that would otherwise have occurred.
However, we are rapidly reducing both aerosol emissions and their resulting climate cooling effect. Global emissions of SO2, the most important aerosol, have fallen by 40% since the mid?2000s. China has cut its SO2 emissions more than 70% over the same period.
This is a good thing; SO2 is a major precursor to PM2.5, which is responsible for millions of deaths from outdoor air pollution worldwide. But reductions to clean the air are quickly unmasking more warming from our past greenhouse gas emissions.
While the Carbon Brief piece goes into quite a bit of detail about how aerosols influence the climate and how emissions have changed over time, I thought readers here would be particularly interested in the novel part of the piece where I estimate the global temperature impact of these recent reductions.
Sabin 33 #33 - What is the effect of hot or cold weather on EVs?
Posted on 17 June 2025 by Ken Rice
On November 1, 2024 we announced the publication of 33 rebuttals based on the report "Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles" written by Matthew Eisenson, Jacob Elkin, Andy Fitch, Matthew Ard, Kaya Sittinger & Samuel Lavine and published by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School in 2024. Below is the blog post version of rebuttal #33 based on Sabin's report.
Extreme temperatures can decrease EV range, particularly extreme cold, but this issue is not unique to EVs. According to a 2019 American Automobile Association report, when compared to conditions of 75°F with the HVAC set to Off, a typical EV’s range decreased by 12% at 20°F, and by 4% at 95°F1. When comparing conditions with the HVAC set to Auto, a temperature drop from 72°F to 20°F decreased a typical EV’s range by 41%2, and a temperature rise from 72°F to 95°F decreased range by 17%. However, EV models are increasingly adopting heat pump technology in place of traditional electric resistance heating3, which can minimize the electricity consumption associated with heating an electric vehicle in extreme cold4.
Traditional gasoline-powered cars are likewise susceptible to extreme weather conditions. Fuel economy tests have also shown a decrease in mileage per gallon for conventional gasoline cars due to temperature drops, with mileage roughly 15% lower at 20°F than at 72°F5. As with EVs, decreased fuel efficiency for conventional gasoline cars in extreme weather is partially attributable to increased reliance on HVAC systems. Both EVs and gasoline-powered cars are likewise susceptible to cold temperatures lowering tire pressure6.
Data from a roadside assistance company in Norway suggests that, by one metric, EVs may actually be more reliable than gasoline-powered cars in the cold7. In particular, whereas internal combustion engines sometimes have trouble starting in the cold, this problem appears to be less common for EVs: while 23% of cars in Norway are EVs, only 13% of reported cases involving cars that failed to turn on in the cold were EVs8.
10 ways that Trump’s tax bill would undermine his energy promises
Posted on 16 June 2025 by dana1981
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections
President Donald Trump has promised to reduce gas prices, improve energy security, create domestic manufacturing jobs, boost the economy, and ensure that Americans breathe the cleanest air. But by gutting the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, Congress’ big new budget bill would undermine all of these objectives – and more.
House Republicans’ top two priorities are to extend the soon-to-expire tax cuts that they passed in 2017, and to minimize the amount that doing so will add to the nation’s over $36 trillion in debt. The massive budget bill they narrowly passed in May is their effort to achieve both.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the House bill’s proposed tax cuts would add about $4.5 trillion to the debt over the next decade – more than a 12% increase from today’s levels.
To pay for some of those tax cuts, the House bill would repeal most of the IRA’s climate and clean energy investments. The IRA, passed by Democrats in 2022, committed hundreds of billions of dollars to developing clean energy and fighting climate change.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the proposed repeal of climate and clean energy investments would shave $567 billion off the tax bill’s additions to the national debt. But repealing those investments would also come at a cost.
Eight groups have analyzed the specific impacts the tax bill’s IRA repeal would have on Americans. Three – at Princeton, Energy Innovation (a Yale Climate Connections content-sharing partner), and Rhodium Group – evaluated the impacts of the entire bill, while five others – Aurora Energy Research, Resources for the Future, Brattle Group, National Economic Research Associates, and Solar Energy Industries Association – looked specifically at the repeal of the IRA’s clean electricity tax credits.
The results were consistent in finding that Republicans’ proposed IRA repeal would increase household energy bills, imperil a nascent domestic manufacturing boom, raise the risks of power outages, disadvantage artificial intelligence development U.S., and increase pollution at the expense of the health of U.S. residents – all outcomes that undermine Trump’s stated goals.
A number of Republican Senators have expressed discomfort with the handling of clean energy in the House bill and may make significant changes in their version.
2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #24
Posted on 15 June 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Science and Research (8 articles)
- Stefan Rahmstorf - Atlantic ocean circulation: a dangerous tipping point for European climate? IFIMAC on Youtube, Stefan Rahmstorf, May 27, 2025.
- Ocean mud locks up much of the planet’s carbon – we’re digging deep to map these ancient stores Deep down at the bottom of the sea, mud is one of the most important natural archives of Earth’s past – holding clues of shifting climates, coastlines, ocean conditions and carbon storage. The Conversation, Sophie Ward & Zoe Roseby, June 6, 2025.
- When will a vital system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean collapse? Depends on whom you ask. New research suggests the currents that help shape the climate may be weakening more slowly than thought. Grist, Rebecca Egan McCarthy, Jun 09, 2025.
- Ocean acidity crosses vital threshold, study finds TheHill.com Just In, Saul Elbein, Jun 09, 2025.
- The role of aerosol declines in recent warming SO2 declines have contributed ~25% of recent warming and driven recent acceleration. The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather, Jun 10, 2025.
- Ocean current `collapse` could trigger `profound cooling` in northern Europe - even with global warming A “collapse” of key Atlantic ocean currents would cause winter temperatures to plunge across northern Europe, overriding the warming driven by human activity, which seems a good reason not to accidentally break the AMOC. Carbon Brief, Cecilia Keating, Jun 11, 2025.
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #24 2025 A weekly digest of recently published research on matters of human-caused climate change, how we'll fix Earth's climate and/or learn to live with the mess we've made. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jun 12, 2025.
- New Climate Study Highlights Dire Sea Level Warmings To learn about how polar ice sheets melted during an ancient era, scientists examined fossil coral reefs in the tropics. Inside Climate News, Bob Berwyn, Jun 13, 2025.
Fact brief - Was 1934 the hottest year in the global record?
Posted on 14 June 2025 by Sue Bin Park
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Was 1934 the hottest year in the global record?
1934 was a particularly hot year in the contiguous United States, but not globally exceptional. Worldwide, 1934 was a relatively cooler year and does not stand out in the global record.
The myth began when NASA corrected 6 years of erroneous U.S. temperature data in 2007, shifting 1934 ahead in the U.S. dataset due to earlier calculation errors. Adjustments accounted for factors like time-of-observation bias and weather station changes. Regionally, 1934’s U.S. heat was part of the Dust Bowl, a crisis caused by drought and poor land management.
However, while regional temperature spikes occur naturally, global climate change concerns long-term and worldwide trends.
Global temperatures have risen since the Industrial Revolution, driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases. The ten hottest years on record were between 2015 and 2025. 1934 saw a global temperature anomaly of -0.16 C, while 2024’s record high was 1.28 C above the 20th century average.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
National Drought Mitigation Center The Dust Bowl
World Meteorological Organization State of the Global Climate 2024
The Climate Brink Which was warmer: the 1930s or the last 10 years
PolitiFact 1936 in the United States was “much hotter than 2023."
EPA Climate Change Indicators: U.S. and Global Temperature
NASA Evidence
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #24 2025
Posted on 12 June 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
A Rapid Deterioration of the Transmissive Atmospheric Radiative Regime in the Western Arctic, Bertossa & L’Ecuyer, Geophysical Research Letters:
The tendency for the atmosphere to reside in one of two radiative states (“transmissive” or “opaque”) is unique to the high latitudes. This phenomenon makes the Arctic climate particularly sensitive to change if the conditions that support one of these states vanish. This study examines 25 years of in-situ data from the North Slope of Alaska to investigate how these two states have changed over time. While November once had nearly equal occurrences of both states, the transmissive state has almost completely disappeared, resulting in an increase of over 30 W/m2 in surface downwelling longwave radiation since the turn of the century. This dramatic shift highlights a crucial climate feedback that any region prone to sea ice loss may experience—reducing the transmissive state enhances atmospheric warming and moistening, further promoting the opaque state. This feedback accelerates surface energy imbalances and could amplify Arctic change beyond current projections.
This work was supported, in part, by the NASA Earth Ventures-Instrument (EV-I) program's Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-Infrared Experiment (PREFIRE) mission under Grant 80NSSC18K1485.
Regional emperor penguin population declines exceed modelled projections, Fretwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Emperor penguin populations are predicted to decline rapidly over the current century owing to habitat loss in Antarctica arising from warming oceans and loss of seasonal sea ice. Previous work using very high-resolution satellite imagery from 2009 to 2018 revealed a population decrease of 9.5%, characterized by a continuous decline until 2016, with a slight recovery until 2018. Our study, for the sector 0° to 90°W, includes the recent period of sea-ice loss between 2020 and 2023 and provides a regional population update for around a third of the global population. We used supervised classification of very high-resolution imagery, linked to a Markov model and Bayesian statistics. Results indicate a significant reduction in emperor penguin numbers, variance in the methodology is relatively high, but provides a best fit estimate of 22% decline over the period equating to a reduction of 1.6% per year. This decline exceeds the predictions of demographic models based on high-emission scenarios. It is unclear whether the sector analyzed here reflects conditions around the entire continent and our results highlight the need to extend the analysis to all sectors of Antarctica to determine whether these trends are reflected elsewhere.
Considering durability in carbon dioxide removal strategies for climate change mitigation, Streck et al., Climate Policy:
Durability – together with scalability and sustainability – is an essential condition of CDR. It depends on (i) the duration of CO2 storage and (ii) the risk of reversing such storage. The risk profile of durability varies widely across CDR methods. Because engineered, novel CDR methods involve more stable forms of CO2 storage than nature-based CDR, these methods are often promoted as a priority for CDR mitigation investments. However, shorter-term CDR plays an essential role in balancing sources and sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century. Decision makers must also consider CDR policies in a larger context that takes into account readiness and feasibility, policy alignment and co-benefits of different CDR methods. They must also address durability in CDR policies and contracts, which tend to span much shorter timeframes than those contemplated by science when discussing durability. We argue that nature-based conventional CDR and novel engineered CDR that show complementary timing and risk profiles can be deployed in synergistic CDR portfoliosto balance the conditions of durability, feasibility and social and environmental sustainability.
Warming accelerates global drought severity, Gebrechorkos et al., Nature:
Drought is one of the most common and complex natural hazards affecting the environment, economies and populations globally. However, there are significant uncertainties in global drought trends, and a limited understanding of the extent to which a key driver, atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), impacts the recent evolution of the magnitude, frequency, duration and areal extent of droughts. Here, by developing an ensemble of high-resolution global drought datasets for 1901–2022, we find an increasing trend in drought severity worldwide. Our findings suggest that AED has increased drought severity by an average of 40% globally. Not only are typically dry regions becoming drier but also wet areas are experiencing drying trends. During the past 5 years (2018–2022), the areas in drought have expanded by 74% on average compared with 1981–2017, with AED contributing to 58% of this increase. The year 2022 was record-breaking, with 30% of the global land area affected by moderate and extreme droughts, 42% of which was attributed to increased AED. Our findings indicate that AED has an increasingly important role in driving severe droughts and that this tendency will likely continue under future warming scenarios.
From this week's government/NGO section:
The Scale of Significance: Power Plants, Peter Howard and Jason Schwartz, Institute for Policy Integrity
The Trump Administration is openly questioning the significance of U.S. contributions to climate change, playing down U.S. greenhouse gas emissions as contributing only “some mysterious amount above zero to climate change.” According to a leaked draft of a proposed regulatory repeal, Trump’s EPA will compare the U.S. power sector’s greenhouse gas emissions to worldwide totals and find, judged on that relative scale, the sector’s contribution to climate change is neither “significant” nor “meaningful.” That kind of skewed appraisal would produce the reductio ad absurdum under which no U.S. sector, sliced thinly enough, is ever a significant source of greenhouse gases—a clearly irrational outcome. By any measure, emissions from major U.S. industries like the electric power sector contribute significantly to climate damages. The best available evidence shows that each year of greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. coal-fired and gas-fired power plants will contribute to climate damages responsible for thousands of U.S. deaths and hundreds of billions in economics harms.
Beyond LCOE: A Systems-Oriented Perspective for Evaluating Electricity Decarbonization Pathways, Moraski et al., Clean Air Task Force
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is a widely used standardized metric to assess electricity generation project costs per expected generation output. Often used to compare technology costs, LCOE has become a ubiquitous metric used in electricity industry literature, cost forecasts, project business cases, and policy making. The LCOE metric is popular in part due to its simplicity and standardization and has been used widely to display LCOE declines of solar and wind. LCOE is calculated by summing the discounted project cost, primarily capital and operating expenditures, and dividing those costs by the discounted expected electricity generation over the life of the project. While LCOE is a good metric to track historical technology cost evolution, it is not an appropriate tool to use in the context of long-term planning and policymaking for deep decarbonization. The authors explain why LCOE fails to reflect the full complexity of electricity systems and can lead to decisions that jeopardize reliability, affordability, and clean generation.
112 articles in 51 journals by 634 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A Rapid Deterioration of the Transmissive Atmospheric Radiative Regime in the Western Arctic, Bertossa & L’Ecuyer, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115362
Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023, England et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-08903-5
Effective Heat Capacity and Its Role in Arctic Amplification, Previdi & Polvani, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115061
Climate Adam: Is China Finally Changing Its Climate Ways?
Posted on 11 June 2025 by Guest Author
This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).
To stop global warming, carbon emissions need to be cut to net zero as quickly as possible. And while some countries have been cutting back on fossil fuels, some major polluters - like China - have seen their emissions continue to increase. But thanks to the epic rise in clean energy solutions, it's just possible that that's starting to shift, and China's path to a low carbon future might be about to change for ever...
Support ClimateAdam on patreon: https://patreon.com/climateadam
Sabin 33 #32 - Is range restriction a problem for EVs?
Posted on 10 June 2025 by Ken Rice
On November 1, 2024 we announced the publication of 33 rebuttals based on the report "Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles" written by Matthew Eisenson, Jacob Elkin, Andy Fitch, Matthew Ard, Kaya Sittinger & Samuel Lavine and published by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School in 2024. Below is the blog post version of rebuttal #32 based on Sabin's report.
The majority of EVs can travel roughly 200 miles on a single charge and some models can travel over 400 miles on a single charge.1,2,3 Although the median range of a gasoline vehicle (403 miles) is roughly twice that of an EV (234 miles)1, the range of a standard EV is more than enough to meet the daily needs of median U.S. households.3 A 2016 study found that the travel requirements of 87% of vehicle-days could be met by existing, affordable electric vehicles (Needell et al. 2016). The average range of electric vehicles has only increased since then, from roughly 145 miles in 2016 to roughly 217 miles in 2021.2 Because most EV drivers charge their vehicles overnight at their home, most of these drivers can go about their daily driving with no need to stop to recharge.4
EV range is also benefiting from the build-out of charging infrastructure. The United States is rapidly building electric charging ports, more than tripling those in operation, from approximately 52,500 in 2017 to approximately 184,000 in 2023.5 For comparison, there are approximately 150,000 gas stations in the United States, which likely include about 900,000 to 1.8 million individual pumps.6 In addition, the United States installed 6,300 fast chargers in 2022, which brought the national total to 28,000 fast chargers.7 The next year, in 2023, the United States installed 10,651 public fast chargers, 56% more than in 2022.8 Using funds from the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the United States has pledged to build 500,000 charging stations by 2030.9 On a global scale, by 2022 there were 2.7 million EV chargers in operation worldwide, with more than 900,000 installed in 2022 alone, a 55% increase from 2021.7
Figure 17: Representation of fast-charging ports installed in the United States each year from 2013 to 2023. Source: Michael Thomas, Distilled (reproduced with permission).8
The Trump EPA tried to bury some good news
Posted on 9 June 2025 by dana1981
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections
The Trump administration has taken an ostrich-like approach to climate change.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is required to publish a report about the country’s sources of climate-changing pollution each year by April 15. This year, that didn’t happen. But the completed report was recently made public as the result of a Freedom of Information Act request submitted by the Environmental Defense Fund.
This latest U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report provides granular detail on U.S. emissions in 2023. It’s unclear why the administration withheld this report, which had been completed, and thus its suppression offered no budgetary benefit. But suppressing the report lines up with the Trump Administration’s general attack on climate action.
Among his Day One executive orders, the president announced America’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and declared “a national energy emergency” that focused primarily on expanding fossil fuel production while largely halting low-carbon wind power development. His administration subsequently began purging the phrases “climate crisis” and “climate science” from government websites, dismantling climate and weather research, firing climate scientists at federal agencies, and even attempting to cancel the next National Climate Assessment Report.
The EPA report itself offers some good news regarding modest reductions in U.S. climate pollution through 2023. But it’s a trend that may not continue, let alone accelerate as needed to meet climate targets, if the administration and Congress are successful in implementing proposed rollbacks of pollution regulations and clean energy policies.
U.S. coal consumption and climate pollution declined in 2023
The EPA report documents that in 2023, U.S. climate pollution fell by 2.3%. That’s about 147 million metric tons, or MMT, of reduced carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse gases.
2023 was the first full year after President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the Democrats’ signature climate law that committed hundreds of billions of dollars to reducing climate pollution.
The continued long-term decline in U.S. coal consumption accounted for the bulk of the reduction in emissions in 2023. In fact, an 18% decline in carbon pollution from coal accounted for 164 MMT in reduced emissions, which is more than the nation’s overall emissions reduction for the year. Higher carbon emissions from natural gas offset some of that coal decline, increasing by 1%, or a bit under 18 MMT.
Annual U.S. electric power generation (colored bars; billion kilowatt-hours) and associated greenhouse gas emissions (blue line; million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents). Source: Figure 2-8 from the EPA Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report.
2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23
Posted on 8 June 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Policy and Politics (5 articles)
- Inside EPA`s backdoor bid to stop regulating climate pollution Fossil-fueled power plants don't significantly contribute to climate change? Welcome to the new US EPA. E&E News, Jean Chemnick, May 30, 2025.
- Scientists long ago envisioned the end of climate cooperation They warned it could happen: a world of surging nationalism, stalling economic development and the unravelling of decades of international cooperation on climate change and other global challenges. France24, Kelly Macnamara, Jun 04, 2025.
- The Trump EPA tried to bury some good news A climate report acquired by a Freedom of Information Act request shows that U.S. climate pollution declined in 2023. Yale Climate Connections, Dana Nuccitelli, Jun 04, 2025.
- Shoot First, Then Aim: A Look at Alberta`s Petrostate Separatists Organized climate denial takes a Canadian province on a weird journey. DeSmog, Danielle Paradis, Jun 06, 2025.
- Schwarzenegger: Hey, stop whining, do something on climate change In comments grounded in good faith but perhaps a bit naive, actor and activist Arnold Schwarzenegger tells the BBC people should "stop whining" about US President Donald Trump's approach to climate change. BBC News, BBC, Jun 07, 2025.
Climate Science and Research (5 articles)
- I flew through a Category 5 hurricane WCLivestream, Jeff Masters, May 31, 2025.
- The Knud Rasmussen Glacier, in Greenland. Muratart/Shutterstock Greenland’s melting ice caps reveal the true extent of climate change Greenland illustrates the vast scope of the changes we've unleashed by altering our climate. The Conversation, Alejandro Gómez Pazo, Marc Oliva, Xosé Lois Otero Pérez, June 3, 2025.
- Annual carbon dioxide peak passes another milestone Phys.org, Robert Monroe, University of California - San Diego, Jun 05, 2025.
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2025 Skeptical Science's weekly review of newly published research into human-caused climate change— and how we're going to deal with it. Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Jun 05, 2025.
- Earth's atmosphere hasn't had this much CO2 in millions of years New data shows that CO2 levels have broken through 430 parts per million, an indication that human-caused global warming will continue to warp the environment. NBC News, Chase Cain, Jun 05, 2025.
Fact brief - Are CO2 measurements reliable?
Posted on 7 June 2025 by Sue Bin Park
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Are CO2 measurements reliable?
Measurements of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are consistent, reliable, and globally verified across multiple independent systems.
NOAA collects data from over 60 sites, including Mauna Loa, which has hosted the longest continuous CO2 record, tracking an annual increase in CO2 from 0.94 ppm in 1959 to 3.33 ppm in 2024. Mauna Loa is ideal due to its remote location and clean Pacific air, while occasional volcanic emissions are well understood and mathematically filtered out of records.
In addition, hundreds of stations all over the world report to independent monitoring bodies such as the World Meteorological Organization and Europe’s Integrated Carbon Observation System.
Because CO2 mixes evenly in the atmosphere, measurements from multiple systems such as ground stations, air flasks, and orbiting instruments indicate the same story: rising CO2 levels driven by human emissions. Claims of distortion are unfounded and ignore decades of careful monitoring.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
NOAA Tracking carbon dioxide across the globe
NOAA How we measure background CO2 levels on Mauna Loa
NOAA What is the Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network?
NOAA Annual Mean Growth Rate for Mauna Loa, Hawaii
World Meteorological Organization Atmospheric CO2 monitoring continues despite Mauna Loa volcanic disruption: AEMET (Spain)
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2025
Posted on 5 June 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Land-based sensors reveal high frequency of coastal flooding, Hino et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Coastal flooding is occurring more frequently due to global sea-level rise, among other factors. However, current understanding of coastal flood frequency and sea-level rise impacts is predominantly based on tide gauges, which do not measure water levels on land. Here, we present data from a novel network of land-based flood sensors in the state of North Carolina, USA. We demonstrate that tide-gauge data are poor indicators of flooding: floods occur 26–128 days annually, an order of magnitude greater than what regional tide gauges suggest in some places. Improving the accuracy of coastal flood measures is critical for identifying the impacts of sea-level rise and developing effective adaptation strategies.
This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 2015-ST-061-ND0001-01... North Carolina Sea Grant (Institution Grant NA22OAR4170109)... National Science Foundation’s Human-Environment and Geographical Systems Program (#BCS-2215195... NOAA’s Climate Adaptation Partnerships program and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (#NA23OAR4310474)... the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (#80NSSC24K0504).
Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss, Chandler et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Ice loss from Antarctica’s vast freshwater reservoir could threaten coastal communities and the global economy if the ice volume decreases by just a few percent. Observed changes in mass balance are limited to ~40 years, and are difficult to interpret in the context of an ice sheet with response time scales reaching centuries to millennia. To gain a much longer-term perspective, here we combine transient and equilibrium Parallel Ice Sheet Model simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet response to glacial-interglacial warming and cooling cycles over the last 800,000 years. We find hysteresis that is caused by the long response time and by crossing of tipping points. Notably, West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse contributes over 4 m sea-level rise in equilibrium ice sheet states with little (0.25 °C) or even no ocean warming above present. Therefore, today we are likely already at (or almost at) an overshoot scenario, supporting recent studies warning of substantial irreversible ice loss with little or no further climate warming.
When boundaries are blurred: infrastructure needs in support of the climate displaced, Best et al., Frontiers in Climate:
Interactions between climate change and human displacement are complex, yet it is clear that climate change has and will continue to alter patterns of mobility. This is true for both trans-border displacement and internal displacement within country borders. Very little attention has been given to the infrastructure needed to support the climate displaced during their journey as well as in communities where they may pause or settle. In contrast to the climate displaced, reasons for refugee flight can range from deprivation, poverty, war, or disasters, and the statutory definition of refugee entitles them to the protection and assistance of the United Nations. This definition does not currently apply to those who move or are displaced because of climate change, though their displacement is no less perilous or traumatic than those protected under the UN Refugee Convention. Regardless of the legal status, engineers are largely absent from conversations about how to support and protect those undergoing displacement from climate change. In this paper, we draw on the general literature of forced displacement and the existing legal processes for refugees to explore the stages in climate-related displacement. We propose a framework for understanding the basic infrastructure needs during four phases: initiation, mobilization, pause and settle. We identify critical infrastructure to support the climate displaced for each of these phases, calling out those aspects of the displacement process in which greater understanding of how engineers can contribute to protection of human rights is needed.
Impacts of Breaching Planetary Boundaries on Human Health: Current and Future Threats, Kemarau et al., GeoHealth:
This review examines the impact of breaching planetary boundaries on human health and potential future threats, emphasizing the need for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Through a rigorous literature review of 142 high-quality articles, we explore the health implications of breaching planetary boundaries such as climate change, land system change, biodiversity loss, biogeochemical flows, aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone depletion, freshwater use, novel entities, and ocean acidification. Our findings indicate a direct association between breached planetary boundaries and a range of health risks, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, increased infectious disease vulnerability, and nutritional impacts due to compromised food sources. The analysis highlights the disproportionate effects on vulnerable populations and underscores the significance of localized and global strategies in mitigating these health threats. Effective measures, including urban planning for green spaces and pollution control, have been identified as crucial. The review calls for an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to safeguard human health against the backdrop of environmental degradation, stressing the urgency of global collaboration in policy development and implementation.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks, Giguere et al., World Weather Attribution
The authors assessed the influence of human-caused climate change on dangerous heat waves over the past 12 months. They found that 4 billion people, about 49% of the global population, experienced at least 30 extra days of extreme heat (hotter than 90% of temperatures observed in their local area over the 1991-2020 period) that was made at least two times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029), World Meteorological Organization
Global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five-year period 2025-2029. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900. It is likely (86% chance) that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2025 and 2029. It is also likely (70% chance) that the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is likely (80% chance) that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024) and although exceptionally unlikely, there is now also a chance (1%) of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming in the next five years. Long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C. The five-year average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region relative to the whole tropics indicates mixed or mainly neutral ENSO conditions in this period.
136 articles in 57 journals by 817 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Demystifying the drivers of the spring warming asymmetry between Eurasia and North America, Ding et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu2364
Does It Matter to the Climate If Trade Cumulus Clouds Cluster?, McCoy, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115570
Landfast ice in the Kara Sea stabilizes the Arctic halocline and may slow down Atlantification of the Eurasian Basin, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02360-8
One big, beautiful, climate-killing bill
Posted on 4 June 2025 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Samantha Harrington.
Dana will do a Livestream with Yale Climate Connections on the subject today, Wednesday 6/4 at 5–6pm ET as well. Tune in here.
House Republicans worked to eliminate clean energy tax credits in a massive tax bill that they passed in a 215-214 vote early in the morning on Thursday, May 22, 2025. The new bill, named the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” would sunset individual and business incentives created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, such as tax credits for electric vehicle purchases.
A large swath of the public supports such incentives. In a December 2024 survey, researchers at the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, the publisher of this site, found that 91% of liberal Democrats, 70% of moderate or conservative Democrats, 42% of liberal or moderate Republicans, and 28% of conservative Republicans support tax rebates for electric vehicles. A Yale Climate Connections analysis found that red states stood to benefit the most from the law’s incentives.
In August 2024, 18 Republican members of the House asked Speaker Mike Johnson to protect the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy tax credits. That group was led by Rep. Andrew Garbarino, a Republican from New York.
Still, President Donald Trump campaigned on the promise to “terminate” the federal government’s efforts to reduce climate-warming pollution, and on Thursday morning, his Republican colleagues in Congress largely went along with his wishes. Roll Call reported that Garbarino did not vote on the budget reconciliation bill. Two Republicans and all Democrats voted against it.
“This policy about-face couldn’t come at a worse time: Energy prices have surged 30% since 2020,” said Ari Matusiak, CEO of the nonprofit Rewiring America, in a statement. “Maintaining these tax credits gives American households an opportunity to offset these price hikes.”
Sabin 33 #31 - What is the effect of EVs on automobile industry jobs?
Posted on 3 June 2025 by Ken Rice
On November 1, 2024 we announced the publication of 33 rebuttals based on the report "Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles" written by Matthew Eisenson, Jacob Elkin, Andy Fitch, Matthew Ard, Kaya Sittinger & Samuel Lavine and published by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School in 2024. Below is the blog post version of rebuttal #31 based on Sabin's report.
EV manufacturing need not result in fewer jobs in the U.S. automobile industry.1 A 2022 study found that manufacturing battery EV [BEV] powertrain components is more labor intensive than manufacturing powertrain components for internal combustion engine vehicles [ICEVs], which suggests that vehicle electrification may lead to powertrain manufacturing job growth (Cotterman et al. 2024). In addition, an Economic Policy Institute report concluded that “if the shift to BEVs is accompanied by strategic investments in manufacturing and job quality in the U.S. auto sector, then the number and quality of jobs can rise together with BEV production.”2
Electric vehicle production already has created thousands of new jobs in the United States. From 2015 to 2023, there were over 179,000 announced U.S. jobs related to EVs and EV batteries.3 In 2021, the domestic EV industry employed roughly 106,000 workers, more than a 90% increase from 2016 (roughly 55,000 jobs).4 In 2021 alone, the number of domestic jobs in the EV industry grew by over 26%.5
Moreover, economic incentives from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act have increased domestic production and strengthened domestic supply chains.6 The Inflation Reduction Act provides a customer rebate of up to $7,500 for EVs produced in the United States. The IRA includes additional provisions that mobilize domestic mining and mineral processing, as well as battery manufacturing, to further concentrate EV supply chains within the United States.7 This has spurred broadly distributed job growth, with roughly 84,800 new EV-related jobs and $92.3 billion in EV-related investments announced since the passage of the IRA.3 And in addition to benefitting U.S. jobs, EVs are anticipated to benefit U.S. consumers: a recent Gartner analysis suggests that, on average, next-generation EVs will be cheaper to produce than comparable internal-combustion engine vehicles by 2027.8
Climate change is making hurricanes more destructive
Posted on 2 June 2025 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler
Because hurricanes are one of the big-ticket weather disasters that humanity has to face, climate misinformers spend a lot of effort muddying the waters on whether climate change is making hurricanes more damaging.
With the official start to the hurricane season in the North Atlantic coming up (June 1), I figured it was time to explain why we can be so confident that hurricanes are indeed more destructive today due to climate change.
Note: from here on out, I’ll refer to hurricanes as tropical cyclones (abbreviated TCs), which is a more general term for this type of storm.
1. Tropical cyclones are becoming more destructive: sea level
We have 100% confidence that sea level is rising because humans are heating the planet. And higher sea levels mean today’s TCs do more damage than an identical tropical cyclone in a cooler climate because the storm surge is riding on a higher sea level.
As Prof. Adam Sobel said in Congressional testimony a few years ago:
The most certain way in which hurricane risk is increasing due to climate is that, because of sea level rise, coastal flooding due to hurricane storm surge is becoming worse. Storm surge occurs when the winds from a storm push the ocean onto the land. The total flooding is determined by the surge (the part produced by the wind), the tide, and the background average sea level. As sea level has risen … the flooding is exacerbated by that amount.
Climate misinformers will respond that sea level only contributes a small fraction to the total flood depth. But the non-linearity of flood damages means that even a small contribution from sea level rise to total flood depth can increase damages a lot.
For an example, imagine that your front door is six feet above a river. If the river rises 5 feet 11 inches, there is no damage. If climate change causes it to rise another 2 inches, you’ll have tens of thousands of dollars of damage.
2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
Posted on 1 June 2025 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom
Story of the week
If you haven't yet tuned in to the Weather and Climate Livestream you still have a chance to do so in the 13 hours after this news roundup was published! Regardless of when you tune in, you'll find something of interest to watch as they cover so many different topics. Each presentation is about 20 minutes long unless it's the middle of the night or very early morning in the U.S. when you might be treated to an hour-long segment of live coding or lab experiments!
You can currently also watch the previous parts of the livestream which they have to reset every 8 hours or so via the catchup play list. We don't know how long this playlist will actually stay available after the livestream ends. The organizers plan to make individual videos available later if the presenting scientists are okay with that. Given the high quality and diversity of topics covered during the livestream this could become a really valuable resource for years to come!
The closing talks on Sunday June 1 will feature Marshall Shepherd (3:15 ET/12:15pm PT) and Zack Labe (4:15 ET/1:15pm PT).
Stories we promoted this week, by category:
Climate Change Impacts (9 articles)
- When the sea moves inland: A global climate wake-up call from Bangladesh's Delta Of all countries Bangladesh is probably most threatened by sea level rise. Early signs are not good. Phys.org, Press office, May 23, 2025.
- Mosquitoes are bringing West Nile virus to major US metros. Here`s how to fend them off Warming means mosquitoes bearing West Nile virus are moving into new regions. The Independent News, Julia Musto, May 23, 2025.
- Climate change could bring insect-borne tropical diseases to UK, scientists warn Reminding us of why we call it ''global warming,'' West Nile virus pops up in a new location, following the warmer enviroment we're creating. The Guardian, Anna Bawden, May 23, 2025.
- The floods and droughts in Australia are fingerprints of a warming planet | Kimberley Reid It is undoubtedly clear that continuing to burn or export fossil fuels will increase climate change and the risk of extreme weather. The Guardian, Kimberley Reid, May 25, 2025.
- US faces another summer of extreme heat as fears rise over Trump cuts Trump administration undermines public safety as another summer looms in a trend to brutal extremes. The Guardian, Eric Holthaus, May 26, 2025.
- Earth is heading for 2.7°C warming this century. We may avoid the worst climate scenarios – but the outlook is still dire Situation report on the warming we've caused is not a cause for celebration. The Conversation, Steven Teske, May 27, 2025.
- Even birds can't out-fly climate change Phys.org, Bill Hathaway, Yale University, May 28, 2025.
- Forced to relocate by climate change, Alaskan villagers found a new crisis The relocation highlights America’s failure to prepare for the ways climate change is making some places uninhabitable. Washington Post, Emily Schwing and Ash Adams, May 29, 2025.
- Half the world faced an extra month of extreme heat due to climate change: study Phys.org, AFP - edited by Andrew Zinin, May 30, 2025.
Fact brief - Was 'global warming' changed to 'climate change' because Earth stopped warming?
Posted on 31 May 2025 by Sue Bin Park
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Was 'global warming' changed to 'climate change' because Earth stopped warming?
Both "global warming" and "climate change" continue to be used as global temperatures continue to rise.
The two terms refer to different but related phenomena. Global warming captures increasing average global temperatures observed since the Industrial Revolution. Climate change speaks to the various environmental outcomes of this warming.
The last ten years (2015-2024) were the ten hottest on record, with 2024 breaking the record set in 2023. The last colder-than-average year was 1976. Climate scientists calculate global temperatures by averaging readings from thousands of weather stations, ships, buoys, and satellites around the world.
The 1956 paper "The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change" outlined CO2’s role in altering climate. Google Books indicates usage of "climate change" predated and surpassed "global warming" since the 1980s.
The only notable political push to favor "climate change" was a 2002 Bush administration memo that claimed the term was "less frightening" than "global warming."
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.
Sources
The Washington Post Debunking the claim ‘they’ changed ‘global warming’ to ‘climate change’ because warming stopped
CNN Is it climate change or global warming? How science and a secret memo shaped the answer
Tellus Journal The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change
IPCC History of the IPCC
Google Books Ngram Viewer Climate change, global warming
The Luntz Research Companies The Environment: A Cleaner, Safer, Healthier America
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #22 2025
Posted on 29 May 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
A new indicator can assess absorption capacity for carbon dioxide and ocean acidification, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
The ocean has absorbed 25% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the past 40 years, effectively slowing atmospheric carbon dioxide growth but causing ocean acidification. As acidification intensifies, the seawater absorption capacity for carbon dioxide will decline. While the Revelle factor has been used to assess carbon dioxide absorption, it becomes inapplicable at pH < 7.5. Here, we propose a new factor, γCO2, to better measure the absorption capacity for carbon dioxide and acidification. γCO2 decreases with increased partial pressure of carbon dioxide and decreased pH, indicating reduced absorption capacity and intensified acidification. In 2020, global surface ocean γCO2 was 15.50 ± 0.21, a 13% decline since 1992. Projections under SSP5-8.5 anticipate an average γCO2 of 4.72 by 2100, with 61.5% of global ocean regions below the critical threshold of γCO2 = 3.0, potentially harming aragonite-based organisms.
21st Century Sea Ice Loss Will Upend 11,700 Years of Stable Habitat for Bowhead Whales, Freymueller et al., Ecology and Evolution:
Bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) are strongly associated with Arctic sea ice during their crucial summer feeding period. However, anthropogenic climate change is causing a decline in sea ice concentrations, threatening bowhead whale suitable habitat. To characterise the long-term affinity of bowhead whales to sea ice across the Holocene and project the response of populations to 21st century climate change, we built ecological models of occurrence–environmental relationships using distribution-wide fossil, historical, and contemporary records. We found that throughout the Holocene, bowhead whale habitat suitability was consistently highest in summer average sea ice concentrations of 15%–30%. Projecting these models forward in time to 2100 ce showed that 21st century climate change is set to erode these critical sea ice conditions, resulting in the circumpolar range of bowhead whales contracting by up to 75%. We project that during this century, habitat suitability will decline in all four management populations of bowhead whales by at least 52%, with suitable habitat predicted to vanish completely in the Sea of Okhotsk. It is likely that most viable habitat for bowhead whales will exist outside their current distribution by the end of the century, directly impacting conservation policies. Our results further highlight the vulnerability of Arctic marine endemics in a warming world, showcasing how knowledge of the past can strengthen predictions of species future vulnerability to rapid ocean warming.
Warming Stripes Spark Climate Conversations: From the Ocean to the Stratosphere, Hawkins et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:
The “warming stripes” are an iconic climate data visualization, adopted globally as a symbol of our warming world. We discuss their origin and uses for communication, including understanding long-term changes in the climate and consequences of future emission choices. We also extend the stripes concept to explore observed temperature variations throughout the climate system, revealing coherent warming for the troposphere and upper ocean and cooling in the stratosphere, consistent with our understanding of human influences on our climate.
Climate-Driven Body Size Changes in Birds and Mammals Reveal Environmental Tolerance Limits, Watson & Kerr, Global Change Biology:
Using 119,183 bird and 183,087 mammal body mass, and 15,562 bird and 239,600 mammal body length records, along with species' thermal and aridity limits based on their range geographies, we tested for associations between body size and climatic conditions. We also assessed the impacts of human land use extent and interactions with species thermal environments. We found that smaller body mass measurements across taxa are associated with conditions closer to species' upper thermal (hot) and lower aridity (dry) tolerance limits. Agricultural land use extent was found to be positively associated with body mass measurements for both bird and mammal species. Shorter body lengths were observed for both birds and mammals the closer species were to their upper thermal limits. Further we found that thermal and aridity conditions interacted resulting in stronger negative associations between body mass and hotter temperatures the closer species were to their dry tolerance limits. Our results are consistent with predictions that differences in body size within bird and mammal species are driven by thermoregulatory pressures associated with thermal and aridity regimes. While species' range geographies and phenology are widely known to respond to anthropogenic climate change, the shifts in species' body sizes detected here are a third biotic response that exerts similarly profound ecological, evolutionary, and conservation effects.
Declining Freshwater Availability in the Colorado River Basin Threatens Sustainability of Its Critical Groundwater Supplies, Abdelmohsen et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is experiencing persistent aridification due to a complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic activities, resulting in significant groundwater depletion across the region. We used over two decades of NASA GRACE and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) observations (April 2002–October 2024), land surface models and observed data, to document pronounced groundwater depletion in the CRB. We estimate that the CRB lost 52.2 ± 4.0 km3 of terrestrial water storage over the study period, of which groundwater accounted for 65% (34.3 ± 9.2 km3). Of this, the Upper Basin lost 14.6 ± 3.5 km3 of terrestrial water storage (53% from groundwater, 7.8 ± 5.3 km3) while the Lower Basin lost 36.0 ± 6.2 km3 of terrestrial water storage (71% from groundwater, 25.5 ± 7.4 km3). Progress toward groundwater sustainability could be achieved by reducing annual extraction in line with the annual depletion rates presented here (0.35 km3/yr in Upper Basin and 1.15 km3/yr in the Lower Basin).
Large Decreases in Sea Ice Strength and Pressure Along Major Arctic Shipping Routes Projected for the Next Two Decades, Saenko et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
The observed decline of sea ice in the Arctic, if it persists into the future, can create more favorable conditions for shipping activity in the region. To estimate possible changes in key sea ice characteristics over the next two decades, we use high-resolution climate models. The focus is on two shipping routes: the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. In addition to more traditionally analyzed ice concentration and thickness, we present projected changes in ice strength and pressure, which are especially relevant for shipping hazards. Along both routes, the mean September values of ice strength and pressure, projected for the period 2041–2050, decrease by an order of magnitude relative to the period 2015–2024. The decrease is largely driven by changes in ice concentration, rather than thickness or velocity. Increasing ocean resolution from eddy-present to eddy-rich leads to less reduction of sea ice area, volume and strength with global warming.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Climate Impacts in India: Experience, Worry, and Attribution to Global Warming, Verner et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
As the climate warms, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe across India. Indians have recently experienced extreme heat waves, floods, water shortages, and irregular monsoon patterns. These events not only harm lives and livelihoods, but also shape how people perceive both climate change and extreme weather. To better understand public experiences and worries about these events, the authors surveyed 10,751 people in India from December 5, 2024, to February 18, 2025. Most respondents said they had personally experienced at least one extreme weather event or related impact in the past 12 months. Majorities of Indians said they had experienced severe heat waves (71%), agricultural pests and diseases (60%), power outages (59%), water pollution (53%), droughts and water shortages (52%), and severe air pollution (52%).
Policy Evaluation and Selection to Accelerate Geological Carbon Dioxide Removal Deployment, CO2 RE, The Greenhouse Gas Removal Hub, United Kingdom Research and Innovation SPF Greenhouse Gas Removal Demonstrators Programme
Geological carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is essential to achieving the United Kingdom’s (UK) net zero targets, but it will not scale without sustained and carefully targeted policy intervention. While the UK and many other countries have made a strong start by supporting deployment of comparatively mature technologies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and direct air carbon capture and sequestration, innovation across CDR techniques remains in flux and this focus risks sidelining other promising geological CDR approaches. To avoid locking the industry into a narrow set of technologies, the UK government must expand support to a wider portfolio, including earlier-stage options like enhanced rock weathering and biochar. These approaches are less developed, but hold significant long-term potential. Without targeted public investment—grants, subsidies, or tax incentives—they won’t reach the necessary scale in time.
108 articles in 53 journals by 867 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Evaluating the Response of the Labrador Sea to Greenland Meltwater Influx With High-Resolution Eddy-Rich NEMO Simulations, Hoshyar et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc022102
Influence of atmospheric blocking on solar radiation and maximum temperature in Poland during summer (1971–2023), Bartoszek & Matuszko, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108242
