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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Archived Rebuttal

This is the archived Intermediate rebuttal to the climate myth "Wildfires are not caused by global warming". Click here to view the latest rebuttal.

What the science says...

Global warming worsens wildfires by drying vegetation and soil, creating more fuel for fires to spread further and faster.  In some areas like southeastern Australia and California, altered atmospheric patterns may also be creating stronger a

The clearest connection between global warming and worsening wildfires is by increasing evapotranspiration and the vapor-pressure deficit.  In simple terms. vegetation and soil dry out, creating more fuel for fires to expand further and faster.  This is particularly a problem in Mediterranean climates that are prone to drought, like in California and Australia.

For example, California's record-breaking wildfire season in 2018 came at the culmination of the state's five hottest years on record (2014–2018) and a record-breaking drought (2012–2017).  Australia's record-breaking bushfire season of 2019–2020 followed the continent's two hottest and driest years on record, and expanded during a record-breaking heatwave that included an average country-wide high temperature of 41.9°C (107.4°F) on 18 December 2019.

Because of the long-term warming trend, the Fourth National Climate Assessment Report concluded,

“Climate change has led to an increase in the area burned by wildfire in the western United States.Analyses estimate that the area burned by wildfire from 1984 to 2015 was twice what would have burned had climate change not occurred.  Furthermore, the area burned from 1916 to 2003 was more closely related to climate factors than to fire suppression, local fire management, or other non-climate factors.

Climate change has driven the wildfire increase, particularly by drying forests and making them more susceptible to burning.”

CA annual acreage burned

Acres burned by wildfires in California 1987–2019, with the linear trend shown.  Data from Cal Fire.

NCA chart on wildfires 

Cumulative forest area burned in the western United States 1984–2015, and attribution to human-caused climate change.  Source: Fourth National Climate Assessment.

A second, though more scientifically uncertain connection between climate and worsening wildfires involves changing atmospheric circulation patterns.

Updated on 0000-00-00 by dana1981.



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