Are glaciers growing or retreating?
What the science says...
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Most glaciers are retreating, posing a serious problem for millions who rely on glaciers for water. |
Climate Myth...
Glaciers are growing
“[R]eports are coming in from all over the world: for the first time in over 250 years, glaciers in Alaska, Canada, New Zealand, Greenland, and now Norway are growing.”(JamulBlog)
Although Glaciologists measure year-to-year changes in glacier activity, it is the long term changes which provide the basis for statements such as "Global Glacier Recession Continues". Some Skeptics confuse these issues by cherry picking individual glaciers or by ignoring long term trends. Diversions such as these do not address the most important question of what is the real state of glaciers globally?
The answer is not only clear but it is definitive and based on the scientific literature. Globally glaciers are losing ice at an extensive rate (Figure 1). There are still situations in which glaciers gain or lose ice more than typical for one region or another but the long term trends are all the same, and about 90% of glaciers are shrinking worldwide (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Long-term changes in glacier volume adapted from Cogley 2009.
Figure 2: Percentage of shrinking and growing glaciers in 2008–2009, from the 2011 WGMS report
It is also very important to understand that glacier changes are not only dictated by air temperature changes but also by precipitation. Therefore, there are scenarios in which warming can lead to increases in precipitation (and thus glacier ice accumulation) such as displayed in part of southwestern Norway during the 1990s (Nesje et al 2008).
The bottom line is that glacier variations can be dependent on localized conditions but that these variations are superimposed on a clear and evident long term global reduction in glacier volume which has accelerated rapidly since the 1970s.
Basic rebuttal written by dana1981
Update July 2015:
Here is a related lecture-video from Denial101x - Making Sense of Climate Science Denial
Last updated on 6 July 2015 by pattimer. View Archives
[DB] Nice Gish Gallop. This thread is on 'Are glaciers growing or retreating?'; please stay on-topic to ensure your comments do not get deleted.
For the casual reader, appinsys is well-known to be a site of active disinformation on matters related to climate and climate change. The other graphics that Nik provides to further his narrative are of unknown provenance and should be regarded as questionable.
A reliance on primary sources is best.
[DB] There simply is no evidence to support that assertion. And much to the contrary (example here).
[DB] "there is an active under the ice volcano in the area where the warming is graphically shown"
Citation, please? Also please quantify how much heat is melting how much ice causing how much warming. Please include in your citation the paper the peer-reviewed study you cite appeared in.
"Your reference did not address Antarctic underice/sea volcanoes"
Quite frankly, it doesn't need to. Volcanoes are not magical creations possessing the higher intellects needed to discern between hemispheres, like say, polar bears and penguins.
[Not DB] In my opinion, volcanoes are not really on topic for this post, which focused on the plain and simple fact that glaciers overall are not growing. Evidence for and against that particular point is welcome.Ok, so what if I were to say the rapid decline(rate of change) after 1990 was also seen at the start of the graph in figure1(Basic). Does the graph in figure1 actually make any statment keeping this in mind?
A regular doubling period is the exact definition for exponentiality... can anyone please tell me when the saviour of sinusoidality kicks in??
Aerosols were likely the biggest contributor to glacial retreat in Europe from 1850 to 1910. Aerosol loading in the Himalayas due to Indian, European and African fossil fuel consumption are likely the largest contributors to glacial retreat in the Himalayas. There are uncertainties if aerosols from China make their way into the Himalayas.
Aerosols reduce albedo and increase the skin temperature. This same effect, surface darkening effect (SDE), is also leading to a reduction in boreal forest snowpack accumulation (video). It is also having an effect on the Sierra Nevadas in California. The Himalayas is the largest reserve of ice outside of the polar regions. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing is largest contributor to this glacial retreat – not anthropogenic GHG forcing. There are many uncertainties regarding the role of aerosols in global warming; it is also the largest source of uncertainty regarding anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC chart).
Supplemental reading:
Alpine glaciers: Another decade of loss, Guest Commentary by Mauri Pelto, RealClimate, Mar 25, 2019
New data on glaciers:
Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1071-0
"Present mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain ranges in this century"
Recommended supplemental reading:
Scientists alarmed to discover warm water at "vital point" beneath Antarctica's "doomsday glacier" by Sophie Lewis, CBS News, Feb 1, 2020
The recent article Antarctica melting: Climate change and the journey to the 'doomsday glacier' by Justin Rowlatt, BBC News, January 28, 2020, complements and supplements the items linked to by John Hartz @47.
A relevant supplement provided in the article is the presentation showing that the elevation of a substantial portion of the ‘grounding surface’ under Antarctica’s ice, and almost all of the ‘grounding surface’ at the base of the Thwaites Glacier, is below sea level.