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vrooomie at 01:39 AM on 27 September 2012Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
Bernard J@8: took the words right out of my mouth. Well-said. -
Composer99 at 23:51 PM on 26 September 2012Sea level is not rising
Antwerpenaar: If only you were correct. The summary of the myth is ambiguous but when combined with the graphs that are part of the SPPI document I think the meaning is clear. At any rate, I suspect you have inadverently mis-paraphrased the myth statement, which cites Monckton as claiming:Together, these two unaltered [sea level] datasets indicate that global mean sea level trend has remained stable over the entire period 1992-2007, altogether eliminating the apparent 3.2 mm/year rate of sea-level rise arising from the “adjusted” data. [Emphasis mine.]
When combined with the SPPI graphs, it is IMO clear that Monckton is claiming sea levels are not rising at all. I assume you have cited an actual quote by Monckton as well (in fact, it would not surprise me if it was from the same document that this rebuttal cites), which is probably par for the course from Monckton. -
Bernard J. at 23:17 PM on 26 September 2012Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
Sadly, in the scheme of Western social response to the climate damage our culture has wrought, people such as the Inuit will simply be regarded as a bit of collateral damage in our progress to... somewhere. My heart breaks for Caitlyn's people, and their melting world. -
vrooomie at 23:07 PM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
woops..I meant to state "Decreasing our individual carbon footprint." -
Solar cycles cause global warming
Falkenherz, the NASA study (Willson et al. (2003)) found that a slight trend (0.5%) was beginning to occur in the valleys of the 11-year cycle. As they say, "Although the inferred [total] increase of solar irradiance in 24 years, about 0.1 percent, is not enough to cause notable climate change, the trend would be important if maintained for a century or more." Not also that the study is ten years old. It doesn't take a precise analysis to tell that the most recent valley does not support the proposed trend. -
vrooomie at 23:04 PM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
Peter Lang@18: Read this... ..the ask the question again, "why the concern about arctic Ice retreat?" Decreasing our carbon footprint *will demonstrably* be a good first, if tiny step: all need to do as much as they are capable of doing. The biggest bugaboo will be getting governments in line with that thought, and passing stricter controls on carbon, such as the cap and dividend scheme. If we *all* focus on that, and NOW, there is some chance to avoid a really bad outcome. BAU, and the game's up. It's really quite that simple. -
Climate time lag
Side Note: PETM warming is usually presented in simple form as 6C over 20k years or 5C over 12k years. If we get 3C from 1850 to 2150, we'll be warming at 24 times the latter PETM rate. -
chriskoz at 22:50 PM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
philipm, I'm affraid Peter@18 may be incensitive to the medical emergency analogy. I know deniers who even in the wake of such emergency (hart attack) ignore any wisdom and seek help with e.g. homeopathy. Peter's complete misunderstanding of uncertainty (or denial of the meaning of uncertainty), as indicated by his bold text, suggests that he may also misunderstand/deny the graph from Holland 2006. So maybe this newer article from the same site debunking the true intentions of those who (like Peter) want to delay the policy response, will open his eyes. But, back to the topic, the article in question makes big claim that fossil fuel companies do go with mainstream science & predict the arctic ice is going to melt soon when it works to their advantage but there is no citation to back up such claim. I'm interested if the proof of such claim exists, or if the claim is unverified rumours, giving deniers an argument that this article is "another conspiracy theory by warmists"... -
scaddenp at 20:07 PM on 26 September 2012Climate time lag
My understanding from hearing paleo talks is that rapid species radiation following a severe event is pretty common. A proposed model is that in normal times, the competition for resources means that most mutations are unsuccessful. After the stress is removed and many niches are depopulated, then all sorts of mutations manage to survive because the pressure for resources is reduced, greatly increasing the scope for speciation. -
philipm at 19:58 PM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
Peter @ 18: possibly a troll but let's give you a pointer: if you have a heart attack you will accept any solution that's likely to be effective and worry about cost later. If you have sore toe, you may think twice about extensive surgery. I have a couple of posts on one of my blogs about this year’s massive drop: the minimum was about 3.4sq-km (e.g., this one, with a graph showing the minimum). If you update the graphs here and linked articles with the new minimum it looks pretty dramatic. Anyone remember the 2006 paper that was widely attacked for being “alarmist” for apparently predicting a near ice-free Arctic as early as 2040? We are well ahead of any trend modeled in that paper. Here's the reference for anyone who wants to compare it with the new reality as in this graph showing one of their runs vs. today: Marika M. Holland; Cecilia M. Bitz; Bruno Tremblay. Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters. 2006, 33(23): 217. 25 -
David Lewis at 19:50 PM on 26 September 2012Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
Thanks for your article Caitlyn. The methods of Western science aren't the only ones that have provided humans with valid knowledge. There is a movie, Inuit Knowledge and Climate Change, which can be watched online from its homepage. -
michael sweet at 19:46 PM on 26 September 2012Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
Thank you for your contribution. I hope that your people can work out a way to the future. -
shoyemore at 17:19 PM on 26 September 2012Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
bratisa #3, See this paper which Ari had in the research post a couple of weeks ago. It is a study of the French grape harvest commencement. French Grape Harvest -
Falkenherz at 17:17 PM on 26 September 2012Climate time lag
thingadota, I also have read the Wiki article on PETM with great interest. However, keep in mind that the "sudden" shift of temperature probably still strechted over thousands of years. Plenty of time for adaptation for flora and fauna. Also, the continents and oceans had totally different positions, resulting in a global mediate climate, which for example allowed for forest vegetation up until the poles. Therefore, I think we cannot assume that a sudden shift in temperature combinded with a rise in CO2 is positive for evolution. Last point, "explosive" evolution seems always triggered when a high stress on life conditions forces lifeforms to adapt; which means, they die and only newborn with genetic mutations fitting to the new conditions have a chance for survival. From all this, I don't think that the PETM events really translate into a positive outlook for our current, soon about 9 billion, human lifeforms for the next centuries. -
shoyemore at 17:15 PM on 26 September 2012Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
Wonderful post, a fresh and important view on climate change. -
bratisla at 17:12 PM on 26 September 2012Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
Don't want to sound cynical, but how much one does want to wager against my predictions that deniers either : - will question the authenticity of this testimony - will say that one shall not focus on the small picture, but rather on the global picture - will try and cheer her by saying there will be beautiful crop fields on Arctic soon (!) I voluntary left aside the "we have time to adapt" meme, since they already used IPCC AR4 (!) for that purpose by saying "models (!) show that sea ice will disappear only by 2070" And I omit of course the fact that they will be blind to the accumulation of testimonies like that around the world. For instance, in France, grape season arrives earlier than before - last year, I've seen call for workers from farmers during August (!!). -
Falkenherz at 17:11 PM on 26 September 2012Solar cycles cause global warming
CBDunkerson, the website you linked has no mentioning on which TSI data they used or if this is just a statement out of "common knowledge". However, from another commentary tread here on the article on climate time lag, there was a link to a NASA study, which seems to result in still increasing TSI. http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html I don't know if that really makes a difference, but I am still trying to learn more about TSI. As of now, I am still with the three TSI curves from three different studies as shown in figure 15 of Wang 2005; also, see my comments above. -
Glenton Jelbert at 15:07 PM on 26 September 2012It's not us
I wrote to Prof Essenhigh a couple of years back when his paper came out. Not having received a response since, I thought I'd write an open letter to him: Open letter to Prof Essenhigh Brilliant that there's a peer review response now (Skeptical Science's Dikran Marsupial's response) -
ajki at 14:35 PM on 26 September 2012Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
Thank you for sharing your personal perspective. A very much appreciated effort. -
Stevo at 13:32 PM on 26 September 2012Inuit Perspectives on Recent Climate Change
Brilliant article. All the reports, all the data sets and all the measurements are about the real world and these people are the first witnesses of AGW and its extent. Its easy for my freinds and me to argue about whether climate change is real, what is causing it and what can be done but it is all just theory until you hear a real person describe first hand how it threatens a way of life many thousands of years old. -
dana1981 at 10:06 AM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
Peter @18 - The Arctic plays a big role in global weather patterns, for starters. There are a lot of reasons to be concerned about the sea ice death spiral. However, this is not the place to talk about climate solutions. If you want to discuss that subject, I recommend the rebuttal to the myth 'CO2 limits will harm the economy'. We'll be updating that rebuttal with a new blog post next week, coincidentally. -
Peter Lang at 09:52 AM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
Why such concern about the Arctic sea ice extent? What is the consequence if the Arctic sea ice retreats? In fact, why so much concern about global warming? What is the consequence(s)? Most importantly, what is appropriate policy response? Uncertainty about the problem (AGW) is a given; uncertainty about the chosen solution is inexcusable. This is to say, we should be confident that our solutions are going to be effective, and the more expensive the solution the more confident we should be. -
David Lewis at 09:42 AM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
[14] how do you know what Kaufmann is about to tell us, and why not just tell us what he's going to say instead of telling us we'll be surprised? Polyak et.al. 2010 looked at the data from 300 past and ongoing studies before concluding that "the ice loss we see today... appears to be unmatched over at least the last few thousand years and unexplainable by any of the known natural variabilities". Science Daily news report on the study is here. Kaufmann et.al. published this in 2010, which revised their chart from their 2009 paper, on long term temperatures in the Arctic. Anomaly is relative to the average during 1961 to 1990: -
Antwerpenaar at 09:20 AM on 26 September 2012Sea level is not rising
I get the impression that this explanation is muddled. The 'myth' statement says: "the rate of increase in sea level has not changed since satellites first began measuring it reliably in 1993" (i.e. talking about a real but constant rate of increase with time: saying that the derivative dLevel/dTime is constant). ... but 'what the science says' gives: 'The claim sea level isn’t rising is based on blatantly doctored graphs contradicted by observations' (i.e. suggesting that the 'myth' is not talking about a rate (derivative) but about the absolute level. Personally I didn't read it that way). I don't have much respect for Christopher Monckton, but I'm not sure that his standpoint is being correctly addressed here. And arguably, the 'myth' statement justifies his trick of sloping the graph: it can be seen as a convenient way of illustrating that the line is straight, i.e. no acceleration. -
Philippe Chantreau at 09:08 AM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
Esop @9, I believe that Rutan's comment was about a sea ice decline that had "stabilized." I'm trying to find the original quote. -
Robert Murphy at 08:00 AM on 26 September 2012It's cooling
@192: "And now, 2012 (to date) is the hottest year on record." Not globally. I think you mean for the USA it's the warmest so far. Globally it will make the top ten, but won't approach the record. That of course doesn't mean that warming has stopped- it hasn't. -
vrooomie at 07:05 AM on 26 September 2012It's cooling
muoncounter@167: And now, 2012 (to date) is the hottest year on record. Science marches ever forward...;=/...and puts another nail in the denialista's insistence that there's "been no warming since 2001." Sigh.... -
Composer99 at 06:30 AM on 26 September 2012PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
Link in citizenschallenge comment @174 is broken (four "/" characters after http: instead of two). -
Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
Robert, why do you say that about Kinnard? And what will be the difference between the methodologies? Do you have a link to a pre-print for Kaufmann? -
robert way at 04:47 AM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
[7] I don't think that Kinnard et al is an accurate representation of the variability in sea ice over the past 1400 years. In fact I think you will all be surprised with the results that the next Kaufmann et al paper will show - ie much greater Arctic climate variability. -
CBDunkerson at 03:59 AM on 26 September 2012New research from last week 38/2012
Carbon500 & Muzz, no the term acidification is entirely accurate. You just don't seem to understand what it means. Your argument is the same as claiming that one cannot say that they are 'moving North' while in the Southern hemisphere. The current hemisphere (or pH balance) is irrelevant to the the direction of travel (or pH change). If the pH is decreasing then acidification is going on. Claiming otherwise is an attempt to redefine the way the term has always been used. As to ocean acidification being based solely on estimated uptake of anthropogenic carbon... equally false. Direct measurements show the pH change. You really ought to read the 'OA not OK' article DSL linked.Moderator Response: [DB] Ocean acidification is now officially Off-topic on this thread. -
Carbon500 at 03:43 AM on 26 September 2012New research from last week 38/2012
Muzz: (-snip-).Moderator Response: [DB] Ocean acidification, the accepted term by oceanographers for this subject, is off-topic for this thread. See the thread linked by DSL above for those wishing to pursue this further. -
CBDunkerson at 03:13 AM on 26 September 2012Solar cycles cause global warming
Falkenherz wrote: "But, their [BEST's] statement on solar radiation seems not to be backed up by their data." It is for their temperature data and any solar radiation data I've ever seen other than the Soon & Briggs values of unknown provenance. As stated on the page I linked to, BEST ran analyses of their temperature data results against human carbon emissions, volcanic eruptions, solar variations, et cetera and found various correlations (e.g. volcanic eruptions corresponded to brief cooling spikes in a trend that otherwise matched human CO2 emissions). Offhand I'm not sure what TSI data they used, but... take your pick. There are plenty of TSI studies which show that it has declined slightly over the past several decades. Unless Soon & Briggs specify where they got their radically different 'data' there really isn't much to 'debate' here. -
Composer99 at 01:56 AM on 26 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
That graph constructed by Ramez Naam doesn't show a hockey stick so much as it shows Arctic sea ice has fallen off a cliff. -
New research from last week 38/2012
Muzz, see the excellent SkS series on ocean acidification written by working ocean scientists: OA not OK. -
Falkenherz at 01:48 AM on 26 September 2012Climate time lag
Let me just pipe in, this article and the discussion during the last pages is very interesting for me to read, because it nicely summarizes what was buggering me the last weeks during my own personal quest for knowledge (TSI, lag, "heat storage", CO2 levels, PETM, evolution, etc.). I think some findings will always be open to interpretation, but the important thing is that all findings are on the table. Please continue to bring on your findings and your personal interpretation of it! -
Muzz at 01:16 AM on 26 September 2012New research from last week 38/2012
Is the ocean becoming less basic or more acidic? I would assume if the ph of the ocean is greater than 7 then it is not acidic at all -
Falkenherz at 00:51 AM on 26 September 2012Solar cycles cause global warming
CBDunkerson, thanks for the explanation and the link, this clarifies for me the issue with the WT (and, I finally know what "BEST" stands for...). But, their statement on solar radiation seems not to be backed up by their data. I am just starting reading about TSI, so I am very careful to accept figures and conclusions just as a given, yet. Lanfear, the figure 14 is wrong to use I believe, because it is just about faculae. Figure 15 presents three TSI curves from different studies, ranging from an increase between 1 and 2,5 W/m2. The study itself seems to come to a (eyeballed) result of 1 W/m2. I don't know if the 2,5W/m2 can be really called as outdated. As to the physical mechanism, I agree. But maybe the way of calculation of global temperature leaves room for some kind of heat storage (ice-melting, oceans, air streams, etc.) which is not captured by available data. I am not so sure we can confidently say "there is no physical mechanism". Tom Dayton, thanks for the link, this comes very close to what I was thinking about. But I don't get two things there: First, the TSI increase is said to be only "between 0.17 W/m2 (Wang 2005) to 0.23 W/m2 (Krivova 2007) since the Maunder Minimum". Wang 2005 is the same essay I quoted above, where I found this figure 15, where you can also eyeball 1 W/m2 to 2,5 W/m2 from different studies. Second, it is said that "Hansen 2005 estimates the climate lag time is between 25 to 50 years", and then "climate reached radiative equilibrium around the late 80's (give or take a decade)". If I count from 1960 onwards and assume 50 years, there could be a lagged warming until 2010 (which is exactly my point) and not the 80's. I probably will continue discussion over there, I still did not get all points. This whole TSI measuring and relating to glonal temperature is very complicated thing. -
It's not bad
This could be the "acceptance of AGW" tipping point for people in the US: drought-related bacon shortage predicted. -
CBDunkerson at 00:17 AM on 26 September 2012Solar cycles cause global warming
Heh, now that I look more closely I note that while the 'shape' of the temperature line on the WT graph matches that on the BEST graph... the scales are different. WT shows all values ~2.5 C higher than the BEST graph. The X axis also appears to be off with various peaks being shown in slightly different years between the two graphs. This would seem to confirm skywatcher's earlier suggestion that the WT chart was produced by some method other than direct graphing of the data. -
John Brookes at 00:01 AM on 26 September 2012PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
Great post. I actually read the WTFUWT response first, so it was rather delightful to come here and read a nice balanced explanation of what Watts was so upset about. -
CBDunkerson at 23:39 PM on 25 September 2012Solar cycles cause global warming
Falkenherz wrote: "1. The graph in the Washington Times (Source: "University of California-Berkeley Earth-Surface Temperature Project" -> so it IS based on scientific work?)" Yes, that label would mean that the graph was part of a scientific study... if the label itself weren't fiction. The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project concluded that past temperature studies were accurate (in contradiction of their initial assumptions) and that the observed warming was almost entirely due to humans. Their findings on solar influence can be summed up with the statement, "Solar variation does not seem to impact the temperature trend." So the question becomes, how did Soon and Briggs get a graph (which appears nowhere in the BEST studies) showing a 'strong correlation' between temperatures and solar variation from a study that concluded there was no correlation between temperatures and solar variation? The likely answer is that they took temperature data from BEST, TSI data from some other source, put them together on a graph, and falsely labelled the result as coming from the BEST study. The 'US daytime high temperature' values shown on the WT graph appear to match up with the 10 year moving average of such on this page from BEST. So far as I know the source of their TSI 'data' remains a mystery. -
Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
DB, I had always assumed that's how he did it. I recall a study about goats disappearing near the WeatherBell compound . . . -
Tom Dayton at 22:35 PM on 25 September 2012Solar cycles cause global warming
Falkenherz, when TSI started increasing way back when, the Earth heated and therefore started radiating more on its way to thermal equilibrium between the new, higher level of energy coming in, and the energy going out. It could not reach equilibrium, because the incoming radiation (from TSI) kept increasing. When TSI plateaued around 1960, the Earth still was working toward equilibrium by continuing to increase its outgoing radiation. But because the incoming radiation now was constant, the Earth should have crept closer to equilibrium. That closing of the energy imbalance between energy coming in and energy going out should have been reflected in the in-out gap decreasing. Instead, the in-out gap has continued to increase despite the constancy (or slight decline) of the incoming radiation. So there must be some factor reducing the energy going out. What could that be, do you suppose? See John's post on climate lag. -
CBDunkerson at 22:28 PM on 25 September 2012Record Arctic Sea-ice minimum 2012 declared - it's the Silly Season!
Panzerboy #28: There are no "graphing tricks" involved... this post pulls together graphs from multiple different sources covering different time frames and even different units of measurement (square miles vs square kilometers). Thus, implying that the 'failure' of these different sources to all use the same starting point for the Y axis is some kind of deception makes no sense. It is standard practice to produce graphs scaled to the range of values observed or likely to be observed. When the NSIDC graphs were first plotted a few decades ago you could as 'easily' have argued that the Y-axis should go up to 20 million square miles (a value not seen for centuries) as down to 0. Now that the ice is in full out collapse and zero is becoming a possibility it is likely that the NSIDC will have to reframe the graph in the upcoming years... but again that is just following the need to show the full range of observed values without massive amounts of white-space above or below the observed range. Indeed, scaling a graph well outside the range of observed values often constitutes a 'trick' because it reduces the perceived degree of change. On a scale going up to 100 million square miles the melt of the past few decades would look like a nearly flat line. Hence the standard practice of scaling graphs to fit the observed values rather than a large range around them. -
yocta at 21:47 PM on 25 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
RE #2 No Problem :) RE#3 I think you mean he is referring to his 2011 Prediction not his 2013. The video the Eli rabbet has posted refers to Bastardi's 2011 prediction (and indeed your screenshots show this) As far as I can tell, Bastardi hasn't put out a 2013 prediction although you can find one tweet about it here to which he tried to predict the melt was over this year on Aug 26 -
Robert Murphy at 20:41 PM on 25 September 2012Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2012 Update
Joe Bastardi said: "...I think that's where we're gonna be next year. We're gonna recover dramatically here, with the cold that is coming over the next 9 to 12 months. I think next year you're gonna see the latest start to the sea ice melt that we've seen in a long time...." This is the same guy who can't read a map. -
Ari Jokimäki at 20:29 PM on 25 September 2012New research from last week 38/2012
Sporehopper: "Is there any research that has recorded any effects associated with human activity and development. Specifically: North Central region of Florida. The massive growth of the Orlando, Fl area..." There's lot of research on this subject area. This one is studying Orlando: The Urban Heat Island and Local Temperature Variations in Orlando, Florida - Yow & Carbone (2006) This paper came up in same search: The Disappearance of Dense Fog in Los Angeles: Another Urban Impact? - LaDochy (2005) Another on rainfall: Effect of urbanization on the diurnal rainfall pattern in Houston - Burian & Shepherd (2005) There are lots and lots of papers on the general topic of weather impacts of urbanization, so you might want to try to search more specific papers yourself for example in Google Scholar. -
chriskoz at 20:25 PM on 25 September 2012Record Arctic Sea-ice minimum 2012 declared - it's the Silly Season!
Dave123 @32 The "It's soot" myth has already been debunked here. mikeh1@7 has shown, that Matt Ridley from WSJ had fallen victim of that myth. Together with your Hansen 2003 meme, it sounded funny. Out of suriosity, I've read Matt's article (normally I don't read WSJ because it's waste of time) to check the source of his opinion, and here it is, his entire attribution:Some scientists have noticed that the decline in Arctic sea ice correlates better with the rapid growth of coal consumption in China than it does with global temperature
A little disapointment here that Matt did not cite verifiable source but rather "Some scientists" limbo. But no surprise here: deniers like him often practice such reporting. So we cannot conclude that Matt Ridley lacks basic skills to understand a simple 5-sentence abstract. But said conclusion can be declared probable. In fact "Some scientists" can also mean Hansen 2003. -
Lanfear at 20:06 PM on 25 September 2012Solar cycles cause global warming
Falkenherz@43 "TSI seemed to go upward already a long time, roughly since 1700, by a total of roughly 2,5 W/m2 since then." Hmmm... where did you get that figure? The study you refer to states: "The cycle-averaged increase in TSI since the Maunder minimum is estimated to be ~1 W/m2." This is also supported by fig 14 (using the eye-chronometer). Regarding your point 2: There still remains the question of where that heat from the slightly positive TSI-trend is hidden? I think the only possible answer here would be the deep sea (>2000m). But then again, it seems to be working on a too slow pace for this case, if one is to believe the validity this claim: "Scientists estimate that it takes one section of the belt 1,000 years to complete one full circuit of the globe." In that case it would mean that we would be seeing the heat energy coming up from the MWA and not the latest TSI positive trend. As Dikran said in 44 (and repeated later, your're writing too fast :-), you need to come up with a more physical explanation, otherwise this is only (IMHO) a exercise in hiding the god.
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