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2012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
wait, wait until the bishop comes over the hill ... he will say "let there be light" or something ... never mind -
Doug Bostrom at 07:05 AM on 12 September 2012Obama, Romney, and Various National Climate Policies Around the Globe
China's nothing if not pragmatic, at least in a selective way. China is also a fascinating case of a political system where grand experiments that economists elsewhere can only dream of may be implemented overnight, arbitrarily and without hesitation: A Chinese City Moves to Limit New Cars The municipal government of Guangzhou, a sprawling metropolis that is one of China’s biggest auto manufacturing centers, introduced license plate auctions and lotteries last week that will roughly halve the number of new cars on the streets. Leaving aside the many defects of the context in which this is possible, it's incautious to dismiss China's ability to pivot around emerging challenges. By skipping the details of discussing what might go wrong, how to let the invisible hand of the market brainlessly grope its way to a decision, where to stop the endless process of R&D (aka "perfection") and instead "choosing" to move quickly to deployment China has installed more than the equivalent of 40 nuclear plants' worth of solar domestic hot water production in the past few years. Here in "progressive" Seattle we can't get the building code to steer new home construction toward installation of solar DHW, in spite of the fact that a reasonable deployment density would eliminate consumption equivalent of the single coal power plant now operating in Washington state. All sorts of excuses were made over this, including from unlikely sources such as architects who are presumably wringing their hands over feng shui. We talk, the Chinese do. We don't want to emulate their political system but we should strive to imitate their alacrity. -
M Tucker at 06:46 AM on 12 September 2012Obama, Romney, and Various National Climate Policies Around the Globe
DSL, if you think I’m not disturbed then I guess I need to use more forceful language. People who deny climate change have nothing to say about adaptation because it is unnecessary because nothing unusual is happening. Please direct me to any mitigation in progress that has done anything to end the relentless rise in CO2 or even slowed the increase. I mean actual numbers because I am well aware of the pathetically small increases in clean energy installations. I’m not saying we should not try to mitigate this tragedy I’m saying that the majority of the polluting nations are doing nothing to mitigate this tragedy and they will continue as before. China is the most polluted nation on earth at the moment. What little installations of wind and solar China has actually done is insignificant to the amount of coal they consume. And they are only consuming more. Their domestic sources are not enough to keep up with their relentless demand. So much so that they have created an environmental nightmare in Mongolia…AND THAT IS NOT ENOUGH. China requires coal to be imported from Australia and Indonesia and even from as far away as the US. They are a coal consuming monster. And will they simply walk away from those coal power plants 10 or 15 years from now when they are still in their prime? I doubt it because they are very economically pragmatic people. So I’m not calling for governments to adapt to the climactic catastrophe thundering toward us I am saying that prudent individuals need to look for adaptive strategies because our governments have other priorities. -
Obama, Romney, and Various National Climate Policies Around the Globe
Tucker @16 Think of global warming as a train wreck that we know is going to happen. "We" are the people on Earth, the people on the train. Your suggestion implies that we should not intend to slow the train because it is going to crash anyway, so just get cushions and hold on ... while that makes sense, it also does to try to slow the train down so that the wreck will be less horrible and easier to cushion. Check out the post here -
Doug Bostrom at 06:31 AM on 12 September 2012Book review of Michael Mann's The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
Michael Mann's Amazon reviews falsify global warming, is that the gist? Starvation diet in some quarters. When you're boiling your boots for your next meal it's time to consider quietly slipping out of camp. -
villabolo at 06:28 AM on 12 September 2012Do we know when the Arctic will be sea ice-free?
I'm trying to make a list of positive feedback loops that would affect the Arctic melt. I'll list some of the obvious ones but there are some, in this list (in bold), that I've never heard mentioned before. Please tell me if there are more of if some of the ones I’ve mentioned are too insignificant: 1) Change in ocean albedo as well as land albedo 2) Ponding. 3) Rotten ice. 4) Siberian Permafrost. a) Increased surface area and depth of permafrost melt b) Increased metabolism of Methanogens throughout the melted permafrost. Microorganisms have a highly reduced metabolism in temperatures slightly above freezing which dramatically increases with small changes in their environment. I’ve brought this up before but I haven’t received an answer. c) Another amplification of both temperature and methanogen metabolism would be the albedo effect of the numerous and (ever increasing) number of lakes. 5) Increased melt of fresh water from Greenland. 6) Rain (occasional) at the fringes of Siberia and Canada + runoff into the ocean + enhanced glacier melt from the rain. Are there models that take all of these factors into account? -
Bob Loblaw at 05:40 AM on 12 September 2012Do we know when the Arctic will be sea ice-free?
DSL: Yes, that makes sense. It's not a summer minimum thickness, but a minimum when you're adding lots of thin ice in the early fall/winter. The idea of an "average thickness" is complicated by the large areas that transition from ice to no-ice. Calculating an average for the entire Arctic ocean (including ice-free areas where thickness=0 would decrease the average) would give a different number from calculating average ice thickness only for those areas covered in ice (which is what Tamino's volume/area number represents). Tamino's graph also has it at around 1.4m now. Sort of like the difference between calculating average income for everyone (GDP/population), or average income only for people that actually have an income (GDP/number of working people). -
Do we know when the Arctic will be sea ice-free?
villabolo, by my calculations, average thickness was 1.43 meters on day 246 (Sept. 2). Thickness declines during freezeup, and min thickness usually occurs right around mid-November, but this has been changing quite a bit. It occurred on the 29th of October last year. -
vrooomie at 05:22 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Sph@64.... Sphaerica's Just Dessserts.... {;-D -
Bob Loblaw at 05:05 AM on 12 September 2012Do we know when the Arctic will be sea ice-free?
villabolo: Neven's sea ice blog is an obvious place to look for information, but you can also go over to Tamino's blog, where he recently did a post that looked at sea ice volume/area (which basically is thickness). His third graph is the one to look at - it shows that back around 1980, the thickness ranged from 2m (summer) to 3m (winter max), whereas now it is more like 1m summer and 2m winter. [6'=1.8m for the conversion-impaired] -
dana1981 at 05:05 AM on 12 September 2012Obama, Romney, and Various National Climate Policies Around the Globe
M Tucker @16 - I don't think you're being fair to China, which is installing a lot of solar and wind. Yes they're also still installing new coal because of the sheer speed of their development, but they recognize not only the climate impacts, but also the air quality and direct health impacts of those new coal plants. It's also not an either-or choice between mitigation and adaption. We will have to do both, but the more mitigation we manage, the less adaptation (and suffering) will be necessary. -
Obama, Romney, and Various National Climate Policies Around the Globe
M Tucker, while I don't have anything to say (right now) about the bulk of your comment, the last sentence really bugs me, because it's the new meme going around from the professional doubters. It ostensibly assumes (wrongly) that we're going to move in step-like fashion from one climate regime to the next, and since we now cannot stop that step from happening, we should just start preparing. I know that might not be what you're after, but it's disturbing to read anyway. -
P.T. Goodman at 04:43 AM on 12 September 2012Book review of Michael Mann's The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
I suppose his is the best place to bring this up. It's a new (to me) prevarication by AGW denialists. The accusation is that Michael Mann has been: ' caught astroturfing Amazon.com with the help of none other than John Cook author of your climate bible Skeptical Science. Seems Mike sent John a pre release copy of his book "The Hockey Stick Wars" that was distributed via the back door to a number of people to read and write reviews to be "in the holster" for the day of release. ' Another related accusation (by the same culprit, dalyplanet, in the same blog on the same day) is that the reviews were manipulated by John Cook and Michael Mann. Dalyplanet has posted to SkS under the same ID. The offensive accusations occur here. I provided a short defense, but there is no point in trying to convince dalyplanet of anything. No one listens to him anymore and he is as much an Internet troll as anything else. I can see why Michael Mann saw the need to write this book. I may even read it. -
villabolo at 04:39 AM on 12 September 2012Do we know when the Arctic will be sea ice-free?
I'm curious, what's the average thickness of the ice cap? I heard it was around 6' but I believe it's thinner. -
M Tucker at 04:39 AM on 12 September 2012Obama, Romney, and Various National Climate Policies Around the Globe
I really think you have given India and China too much credit. Are they still building coal power plants? How are their coal imports given the fact that they both have active coal mining industries? Do not confuse investments in wind and solar industries with actually constructing wind and solar plants in their own countries. It is a well know fact that China wishes to corner the wind and solar markets IN OTHER COUNTRIES. If you are willing to believe any of China’s “five year plans” I have a bridge I’d like to talk to you about. They remind me of the endless succession of unfulfilled “five year plans” that the old Soviet Union used to come up with during the 1960’s and ‘70’s. And China lies all the time about what their industrial and power plant emissions actually are. India is a completely different story. Not in the same league as China. It is basically a basket case. It still takes aid money while doling out aid to even poorer counties. It still subsidizes kerosene for lighting rural villages. In the most prosperous cities freshwater is delivered by truck. Power outages are a common occurrence in the nation’s capital. I certainly don’t expect India and China to be able to do anything to stop their relentlessly increasing CO2 emissions, or any of the other pollution problems they suffer from, anytime soon. Likewise I don’t expect the US to be able to do anything to initiate a carbon tax or a cap’n trade scheme. It is not up to the President it is up to congress. Now, I’m taking a chance here because I have been deleted before for “political remarks” and it does say “Political…comments will be deleted.” But SkepticalScience did choose the topic. So I will carry on…Since it is up to congress I’m sure you are all aware of the rampant conspiracy theory loving anti-science Republicans who dominate the House of Representatives and who are the minority party in the Senate. Since they dominate the House no climate bill will originate there and they will not take up a bill from the Senate if, by some miracle, the Senate were to pass one. Since, due to the “filibuster rule” in the Senate, the minority party actually has the majority by the throat, they can stop any bill the majority brings up. And it is possible for the Republicans to win the majority in the Senate with the upcoming elections so ending all possibility for climate legislation. The President and the Executive branch can do some minor things with the EPA but those new rules are being fought out in the courts and the court of ultimate appeal is dominated by the ultra-conservatives. As for the XL pipeline I think relations with our largest single nation trading partner has more to do with the final decision than CO2 emissions. Canada has only one way to get that sticky mess they call oil to foreign markets and that is through the US. US courts have granted that foreign multinational corporation eminent domain rights to force farmers to allow the pipeline to cross their land. So Obama will probably allow the pipeline to say on good terms with Canada and the farmers are powerless to stop it. So whatever the other more intelligent nations of the world might do, carbon pollution will not be reduced in the next 10 years or so. And most probably CO2 emissions will continue to increase for at least another 15 to 20 years. When we finally get the majority of the polluting nations to agree to some kind of policy it will only reduce CO2 emissions not end them. So world wide atmospheric CO2 will continue to go up at a slower pace. What we all need to do is start thinking about adaptation because mitigation seems out of the question. -
Bob Lacatena at 04:31 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Okay, I waited far too long for this. I can't believe no one else did it... But... *drum roll, please* "How many climate skeptics does it take to change a light bulb?" "None. They don't have enough Watts to power it even if it's changed." Get it? Watts? Anthony Watts? Oh, never mind. -
John Mason at 04:19 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
@ John Hartz #62 - You know how I have to deal with all those Gish-Gallops. I can do 'em too - that was the short version! -
John Hartz at 04:15 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
@John Mason #60: Due to its size, your balloon will require its own toon. We can dub it, "The Never Ending Story." -
John Hartz at 04:11 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Another batch: "You simply cannot proove beyond all reasonable doubt that electricity causes the lightbulb to emit light!" "What you call electricity spikes, we call natural variability." "Increasing the flow of electricty does not make the lightbulbs burn brighter." -
John Mason at 04:10 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
"There is no darkness, the darkness is nothing to do with lack of lightbulbs and the lack of lightbulbs is due to volcanoes and in any case as the sun gets more active in the 60-year cycle there will be no need for them anyway and there's no point in changing lightbulbs because not everyone in China or India is changing lightbulbs and these Watermelons would have us living in a cave with no light and... oh *** I can't see my keyboard any more..." -
John Hartz at 03:57 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Perhaps a new theme.. Don't worry, Fox News will tell everyone that we're sitting here in the dark." -
John Hartz at 03:55 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Another Koch brothers... "Remember, we only buy lightbulbs that have the Koch brothers Seal of Approval. -
John Hartz at 03:47 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Variation on the Koch brothers them.. "Don't worry, the Koch brothers are buying new bulbs for us." -
vrooomie at 03:45 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
"You know how those light bulb scientists are just on the light bulb research 'gravy train." -
John Hartz at 03:43 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Keep them doggies moving... "Yes indeeedy, all of our lightbulbs were financed by the Koch brothers." -
vrooomie at 03:42 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Sph@45, that would be the MCFLM (TM). Medieval Compact Fluorescent Light Minimum...:) Variation on a theme: "When *I* was kid, we had NO light bulbs! We lived in the dark! You best get used to it, kid!" -
vrooomie at 03:36 AM on 12 September 2012Vanishing Arctic Sea Ice: Going Up the Down Escalator
dana@27: Which came first..the chicken or the parallel egg? Parallel Earths I *thought* I'd run into Watts, somewhere before I began visiting here...all of these threads showing what's going on in the Arctic, are really, truly becoming frightening. I don't easily frighten, either: my ex was an Aussie...;) -
Rob Honeycutt at 03:13 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
"There is no consensus on Catastrophic Anthropogenic Light Bulbs." -
Bob Loblaw at 02:45 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
"I don't know why you all are so concerned about a little light bulb. There is a loose tile on the floor, and the wallpaper is peeling, I spilled ketchup on the table, and the oven really needs cleaning. Shouldn't our limited resources be focused on more important issues?" "Nobody has checked the fuse, or called the power company, or looked to see if the lamp is plugged in, or called our cousin in Toledo to see if his light bulb is working. There's no proof that the light bulb is the problem." "You just want all the light bulbs to come from the One World Light Bulb Supremacy" "Your light bulb may be white on the outside, but it's red on the inside." "You've got a right-hand-thread light bulb there. We need to bring in a left-hand-thread light bulb for balance." "This is all just a plot to take control of the electricity grid." "I've analyzed the voltage applied to the bulb, and identified a 60Hz cycle in both the current and the light, so I've proved that the output from the light does not depend on long-term supply of power from the electric company. In fact, the lags show that the light generates power, not the other way around." -
ubrew12 at 02:38 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
"Darkness is not the absence of visible light, its the presence of galactic cosmic rays!" -
John Hartz at 02:38 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
This may be the most creative interactive thread in SkS history. We now have enough material for a number of follow-up toons in what will become the "Lightbulb" series. Keep those creative juices flowing and we will have enough material for the first-ever SkS comic book. PS - I find actively particpating in this thread to be very therapeutic. Try it, you'll like it! -
John Hartz at 02:27 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
H/T to DSL: "Arrest that guy with the hockey stick! He smashed all of our antique lightbulbs." -
John Hartz at 02:24 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
While walking the dogs, this one popped into my head: "It's hard to screw in a lightbulb that's been sprayed with Obfuscation oil." -
2012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Yes, Sph - you know, and I don't care what you and your studies say about the Great Darkness being just in a few places on one side of the room. The author of those studies uses "tricks" to "hide the light." Yep. I know. A Low Watt Bulb told me that I'm right, and I believe him. -
2012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Oh, and "You can't prove that my taking a baseball bat to the fixture has anything to do with the sudden darkness. (and funding to study the connection between my bat and the darkness should be given as subsidies to baseball bat producers)" -
Bob Lacatena at 02:06 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
DSL, Are you referring to the Medieval Dark Period? -
2012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
What are you fraudsters talking about? It's light where I'm at! And I've done my own research on this. Where I'm at, the light cycles on and off (with occasional variations when one of my twins pulls the lamp down); therefore, this darkness is just part of a natural cycle. It was darker during the Dark Ages. -
Bob Lacatena at 02:04 AM on 12 September 2012A vivid demonstration of knee-jerk science rejection
Vrooomie, See comment 101. [Extreme trolling comments have been deleted from the thread.] -
vrooomie at 02:01 AM on 12 September 2012Climate Change, Irreversibility, and Urgency
"It seems clear to me that, in the natural world, change tends not to happen in a smooth progression; it happens in fits and starts as various tipping points, large and small, occur." John, in case you're not aware of it, here's a link that robustly supports your supposition. Punctuated equilibria As a geologist, one of the most stark examples of this is the Burgess Shale, in Canada. I am *very*, very worried we're at, if not past, an imprtant tipping point in our 'open, uncontrolled' experiment with the world's biosphere. My experiences at Biosphere II, and knowing its intimate history, also have led me to the same point as your last statement. "It's psychiatry we need, even more than climate science." -
vrooomie at 01:37 AM on 12 September 2012A vivid demonstration of knee-jerk science rejection
Curious question for a/the Mod(s): My intial view of this thread indicates 128 comments, but what I *see* is 121....what am I missing here? -
kampmannpeine at 01:35 AM on 12 September 2012New research from last week 36/2012
the Lucas-Paper of JGR produces empty pages after page 3 ... -
vrooomie at 01:35 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
John Hartz, enquiring minds wanna know: is it *really* the coffee, or the ~additives~ IN the coffee?? In either case, this entire thread is a thing of beauty, to watch....methinks a poster could be made from this, and the thought occurs that it would be WAY more an effective tool to battle denialists with than our "reasoned" scientific data. My vote for the best, so far? "Al Gore just wants us to think it's dark, so he can make billions selling us light bulbs!" Sphaerica, +10...;) -
John Hartz at 01:22 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
More coffee please... "Don't worry. Gish is galloping to our rescue." "If no one else can do it, we'll let Ad Hominem take over." -
John Hartz at 01:13 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Blame it on my morning coffee... "Just throw the bulbs at the ceiling. One of them is bound to stick." -
Falkenherz at 01:13 AM on 12 September 2012New research from last week 36/2012
What about these news here? http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/6/global-warming-fanatics-take-note/#ixzz25u4FCzsb Is there an article which helps to put that into context or is this really new stuff to consider? -
John Hartz at 01:09 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
A theme with much potential... "Don't worry, the strawman will rescue us." -
Bob Lacatena at 01:07 AM on 12 September 2012Do we know when the Arctic will be sea ice-free?
Note that at Neven's blog (for instance this comment here) people have named that hole in the ice the Laptev Bite, and the prevailing theory there is that the warm current from the Barents Sea that is forced downward is hitting the underwater Lomonosov Ridge, deflecting upwards, and causing the hole. I would not be surprised if this September, and certainly next August and September, we don't start to see the icepack being split down the middle as the current follows that underwater ridge, dividing the ice pack in two before melting it completely away. -
Bernard J. at 01:06 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
Oh, and of course it was darker in the mediæval period. If one takes a dendrochronological core, there's less light in the centre of the tree. Ergot, those crazy darkists are cereal liars, liars, pants-on-St-Anthony's-fires. Quod erratic demonstrandum. -
John Hartz at 00:54 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
The balloons just keep coming... "Stop! You're standing in six inches of seawater." -
Daniel Bailey at 00:53 AM on 12 September 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #36
"Dark is the Emperor's New Light"
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