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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 55901 to 55950:

  1. Rob Honeycutt at 04:55 AM on 2 August 2012
    Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
    Dana... And I actually think that speaks to Anthony's approach to science. Scientists generally start from a position of "here's something we don't yet fully understand, so I want to study this to help expand our understanding." From there the results of the research are what inform the conclusions. Anthony seems to go the opposite direction, starting with the conclusion that he believes is true and tries to work toward that end. Eli Rabett has an interesting perspective that he put forward on this issue. He says:
    What amateurs lack as a group is perspective, an understanding of how everything fits together and a sense of proportion. Graduate training is designed to pass lore from advisors to students. You learn much about things that didn't work and therefore were never published [hey Prof. I have a great idea!...Well actually son, we did that back in 06 and wasted two years on it], whose papers to trust, and which to be suspicious of [Hey Prof. here's a great new paper!... Son, don't trust that clown.] In short the kind of local knowledge that allows one to cut through the published literature thicket. But this lack makes amateurs prone to get caught in the traps that entangled the professionals' grandfathers, and it can be difficult to disabuse them of their discoveries. Especially problematical are those who want science to validate preconceived political notions, and those willing to believe they are Einstein and the professionals are fools. Put these two types together and you get a witches brew of ignorance and attitude.
    Link
  2. Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
    michael - thanks, link fixed. JohnHarrington - the statement you quote is true. It would be interesting to see what kind of difference this new UHI adjustment process has on the data. It's not going to make much difference as shown in the post above, but it would still be interesting to see, and any improvement to the temperature record is a useful contribution. Whether their attempts were honest or not isn't the issue. The question is whether they can make a valuable contribution to the science. They can, if they try to.
  3. JohnHarrington at 02:40 AM on 2 August 2012
    Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
    Good article, but I wish things like this were avoided: "With said caveats carefully addressed and the conclusions amended if and where necessary, the paper has the potential to be a useful contribution to the climate science literature." There's no need to be vituperative, but there's also no need to encourage this enterprise as if it was really an honest attempt to clarify climate science.
  4. Is Greenland close to a climate tipping point?
    Bernard - Why pick a double Greenland total surface melt (or near total)? We already have had dozens of warnings quite sufficient to put the world on a "war footing" response. Setting up a new one actually serves to justify ongoing delay and offers a pointless hostage to fortune. More generally, when quoting the 153 year average period between melting events in the ice cores from Summit camp, it is important to put this into the context given in the actual 1995 paper that established this calculation. The study is available here and the very first sentence of the abstract ought to be required to be quoted anytime anyone wants to repeat the "150 year" idea. Here is the opening sentence: "The rare melt features in the GISP2, central Greenland deep ice core have decreased in frequency over the most recent 7000 years." These melt events are not some quasi-clockwork natural cycle thing. The most recent one was in 1889 and before that, the next most recent one was not for another 700-800 years earlier. Why NASA chose to include that misleading quote about this being "right on time" in their press release, I'll never know.
  5. Is Greenland close to a climate tipping point?
    I am thinking that an albedo change does not have to be associated with new aerosol deposits. As deep snow pack melts, whatever dust was deposited throughout its depth tends to get more concentrated on the surface simply because it melts from the top down. And now I am thinking that melt events like this will tend to positively reinforce themselves. Slowly at first, but I think the effect would tend to be cumulative, and over time, it would take less warm air to melt off the high albedo fresh snow to get to the darker layer below.
  6. michael sweet at 02:06 AM on 2 August 2012
    Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
    Good article. It will be interesting to see what response Watts has. When I click the "as has Watts" link at the end of the post I get an error message.
  7. Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
    Link to Kevin's image @1
  8. Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
    An Irishman was travelling in Spain around 1620, where he fell in with 2 heliocentric heritics. They travelled together for a bit, but then had the misfortune to be captured by a gang of bloodthirsty banditos. These banditos had little use for foreigners so decided to execute them on the spot. As usual in these jokes, the three were allowed one last request. "Well," the first heretic said "I will take time to tell you about the 3 stars Galileo observed and how they orbit Jupiter and not the Earth." "And, me "said the second heretic, "I will tell you about the Kepler's Supernova and how it so far away disproving the immutability of the heavens! "Oh, J**** Chr***!" said the Irishman, "Shoot me first! I can't stand another lecture about bl***y Supernovas and Heaven immutability."
  9. Watts' New Paper - Analysis and Critique
    Here's my best attempt at a global land-ocean comparison of the adjusted, raw, and raw/rural data. I've used the HadSST2 data for the ocean part. The algorithm is very similar to GISTEMP, and the results are very close to GISTEMP too (very slightly higher because I don't have a UHI correction). The difference between the curves is now very small. Part of that is the inclusion of the SSTs, with the ocean covering a far larger portion of the planet than the land stations of course. However a second factor is that using only the rural data reduces coverage in the simple CRU-like algorithm, which also impacts the results. This is very recent code, and rather more complex than the simple implementation provided above, however the agreement with GISTEMP gives me some confidence. Nick Stokes' TempLS code could do a better job, and is far more mature.
  10. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    OH NO!!! Another DRAFT??? Please spare us the Pontificating Press Releases, the Grandstanding in the press (NYTimes etc.), and the enormous waste of effort spent investigating a non-issue. Why doesn't AW get some real peer review? Go to the High School in Chico, find the science teacher, and use some of his haul from Heartland to pay the teacher to review his work before subjecting us all to this again. The process of releasing and publicizing not-even-half-baked propaganda, doesn't work. In the end, the process has even damaged (or destroyed) his own reputation. I hope you are wrong.
  11. Sceptical Wombat at 22:40 PM on 1 August 2012
    Is Greenland close to a climate tipping point?
    Bernard @1 If melting events in Greenland become common then we can expect the denialsphere to attribute it to black carbon from Chinese Industry. Now lets get back to those EMails.
  12. Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
    In line with Michael Mann's comment that Richard Muller has a ways to go to catch up with mainstream climate science, I was interested in George Marshall's (not of George C. Marshall Inst.) Irresistible Story of Richard Muller post. It identifies the Dr. Muller's change of heart as being a cultural transformation, not a scientific one, dispite what Dr. Muller writes. (I don't see a Muller thread, so I'm putting this comment here.)
  13. Lindzen's Sandia Talk Contains his Usual Errors
    The question is what impact his presentation made. I have seen Lindzen giving presentations, and -- not unlike Monckton -- he is a versed public speaker with reassuring demeanor. That is why it is important to spread the debunkings as they are much more difficult to make on the spot in response to a presentation. The presenter is usually the incumbant, working from a higher vantage point and with time on his/her side, and his/her message will be better remembered than critical questions from the audience. That is why institutions need to be careful when inviting him and others, and follow up with debunkings such as the above if they are really skeptical about Lindzen. Is SkS proactive in this respect?
  14. Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
    @22,23 The case HS is referring to involved a law suit against Rahmsdorf (SR) by a journalist. SR had pointed out what you may call "bad reporting" (repetition of questionable "skeptic" claims which supposedly let to an earlier retraction by the Sunday Times) by a journalist at a well-respected Frankfurt paper. The "corrections" SR demanded were designed to set the record straight, but the court found he defamed the journalist in his not fact-related choice of words. Not sure the journalist would have had a case in the US; German law gives more leverage to the defamed person, so people usually are much more careful what they say in public. A related question: Based on the above explanation and descriptions, I wonder whether it would be successful to challenge Governor Perry for his remarks last fall. The problem is that he did not name anyone, just said "... a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data ..."
  15. Is Greenland close to a climate tipping point?
    The two crumbs of comfort in this post come from the Kopp et al 2009 abstract. Firstly they find Sea Level Rise from the (possibly) relevant part of the Eemian to be probably 5mm - 9mm pa. The other is that the polar temperatures were "~3 to 5 dec C warmer than today." But they are pretty meagre crumbs. The SLR I convert from their average over a millennium and with polar amplification of temperature, a ~3 to 5 deg C rise in polar temperatures is less in terms of global ones.
  16. George Montgomery at 17:54 PM on 1 August 2012
    Lindzen's Sandia Talk Contains his Usual Errors
    The forecast retirement of Lindzen brings to mind that contrarian climatologists are an ageing lot, as are those non-climatologists who are in the vanguard of the faux sceptics movement. Perhaps there is an increasing relevance in Max Planck's 1948 observation that "a (new) scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather that its opponents die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it". [my brackets]
  17. Is Greenland close to a climate tipping point?
    Given the low probability of seeing such melting across Greenland again in, say, the next decade if such events are only occurring randomly, perhaps the world's nations should be considering a near-future occurence of such an event as a trigger for a 'war footing' response to human carbon emissions. At least, any rational civilisation would do so. If we see another whole-continent melting in Greenland in the next five to ten years, with no concommitent emergency response around the world, then it really will be all over Red Rover for any semblance of a 'pleasant' biosphere and a functioning global human society a century or two from now.
  18. Doug Hutcheson at 17:02 PM on 1 August 2012
    Joe Romm's Congressional Testimony
    How nice to hear the plain truth spoken in a political environment. No doubt, being largely unacquainted with the truth, the good congress men and women will find it difficult to believe.
  19. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    John. I know that you'll be aware that Watts is intending to release a second draft soon - if it hasn't already been done it might be useful to anticipate where any future revisions will end up taking any final paper that might actually make submission.
  20. Peter Hadfield takes on the MWP
    Thank you Mr. Hadfield for an excellent presentation. I have completely believed in anthropogenic climate change for decades. However, as I have returned late in life to a graduate program, I am out of necessity for my thesis reading a great deal written by climate change deniers and skeptics. As my background is journalism and not science, occasionally, I am drawn into what seems like a plausible argument, such as MWP. Your video snapped that thought right out of my head. Attention to detail and good investigation--something that competent scientists and journalists share. Most skeptics I;m reading, though, seem to come up short on facts, provide few references, and resort to attacking opponents. Reminds me more of sleight of hand when I read their books and papers.
  21. Newcomers, Start Here
    Thanks for the response. I was getting paranoid--I thought it was me.
  22. Lindzen's Sandia Talk Contains his Usual Errors
    Lindzen has credentials though. He's been in the field for a long time and has a lot of publications. People don't care that he's always wrong or always repeating the same misinformation, because they can say "this climate scientist from MIT says it's nothing to worry about". It would be nice if Lindzen would do us all a favor and retire and stay out of the media.
  23. Lindzen's Sandia Talk Contains his Usual Errors
    The NY Times has an article which mentions that Lindzen is looking forward to retirement, possibly at his second home. It struck me as a biased piece. Honestly though, he hasn't said anything new for a while, and that hasn't stopped him from being a sceptic magnet. So, I don't know that his retirement would make any difference. Even if he becomes not topical, some other contrarian will feel the void.
  24. Newcomers, Start Here
    koyaanisqatsi - yes, the emails were discontinued when there was a glitch that resulted in several emails being sent out each day. I guess the issue hasn't been resolved yet.
  25. Newcomers, Start Here
    To anyone, Have emails for new blog post been discontinued? The last one I have received was back on July 8, 2012. According to SkS, I'm still set up to receive emails from SkS. I have no filter set up for email. Nothing for some time, though. TIA, koyaanisqatsi
  26. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    To the surprise of no one, Muller’s Op-ed and Watts’s press release have generated a goodly number of blog articles over the past few days. One that merits a careful read is: “More evidence attention-grabbing climate studies prematurely rushed and potentially flawed” by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, July 31, 2012 To access this blog post, click here.
  27. Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt
    With reference to muttkat's inquiry: (1) The melt is ice sheet surface melt (i.e. the formation of meltwater on the surface of the ice), which is certainly a concern. The impression I get from the USA Today article is one of greater melting than is the case. (2) (-Snip-)
    Moderator Response: [DB] Reply to ideology snipped. Thank you for your efforts and for your forbearance.
  28. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    Eric (skeptic): Wrong Menne paper. Try this one: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, D11108, doi:10.1029/2009JD013094, 2010 On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record Matthew J. Menne,1 Claude N. Williams Jr.,1 and Michael A. Palecki1 Received 27 August 2009; revised 24 December 2009; accepted 7 January 2010; published 8 June 2010. In this paper Menne et. al. compared USHCN stations of different siting quality with the USCRN stations.
  29. Medieval Warm Period was warmer
    muttkat: Your inquiry is off-topic on this thread; fortunately there is a post here on the subject of ice sheet surface melt.
  30. Medieval Warm Period was warmer
    I had read a comment that this month that some form of warm air swept over Greenland and the ice melted temporarily from 55% to 97%. http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/story/2012-07-25/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-climate-change/56479518/1 (-Snip-)
    Moderator Response: [DB] Your initial statement is off-topic for this thread; please follow the sage direction given you by Composer99. Your subsequent statement was snipped due to ideology.
  31. Lindzen's Sandia Talk Contains his Usual Errors
    Thanks Martin. Do you have information that Lindzen is retiring?
  32. Lindzen's Sandia Talk Contains his Usual Errors
    Excellent summary. Having been apalled by witnessing first-hand his apparently deliberate attempt to peddle misinformation in London in February this year, I tried and failed to get him to explain his "scepticism". I then tried and failed to get either the MIT or the AGU to extract the same from him. I am therefore very disappointed to see that, just months away from retirement to the south of France, he is apparently still peddling exactly the same misinformation. Clearly, my inability to get anyone to call him to account and/or reign-in waht appears to be deeply-prejudiced and unprofessional behaviour has merely served to convince him that he can do just as he pleases without fear of any adverse consequences).
  33. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    Thanks warm, that's a useful reference. I've used it in our response post to the Watts paper, which we'll probably publish on Friday.
  34. Climate Change Cluedo: Anthropogenic CO2
    By searching on "RealOldOne2's" nick, the GoobleBox turns up a devoid-of-any-videos video feed. Hmmmm..... RealOldOne2's UT account Now, this *could* be a different RealOldOne2, but given the other ~10K denier/contrarian refs Google turns up, I highly doubt it. Golly, to know the real reason why all those videos are now gone...;)
  35. Ari Jokimäki at 03:34 AM on 1 August 2012
    New research special - paleoclimate papers 2010-2011
    The figure is from Martín-Chivelet et al. (2011) and here's the full text for that one.
  36. New research special - paleoclimate papers 2010-2011
    Ari thanks for this list. Can you provide a reference for the figure? thak you Tony
  37. New research special - paleoclimate papers 2010-2011
    I found the Leclercq & Oerlemans (2011) paper on glacier lengths for decadal scale temperature reconstruction to 1600 very interesting: the decadal length averaging removes many variations (ENSO, for example) and gives a clear picture of the overall trends. And a nice confirmation from a proxy not included in most other reconstructions - once again, consilience of data greatly increases our confidence in the results.
  38. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    "Their conclusion also doesn't pass the 'sniff test'. Over land, surface and satellite warming trends should be roughly equal, yet they find a factor of 1.6 greater warming trend in the UAH TLT data than in their raw class 1 and 2 surface temp data. So basically if their analysis is right, it means UAH is biased high, which is simply an implausible result. More likely the Watts results are low because they haven't corrected for various other biases like time of day." I have the "definitive" answer to that issue: Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Troposphere http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/TrendsJGRrevised3InPress.pdf This study used GFDL model to simulate surface and TLT (such as UAH) temperature trends. At the extra-tropical northern lattitude, a more rapid warming of surface as compared to lower troposphere is expected, in line with the results of "official" trends (0.22 in the lower troposphere, 0.3 at the surface...). The amplification factor used by Watts to match TLT and surface is a pure "fudge factor" that have no scientific basis...
  39. Ari Jokimäki at 20:17 PM on 31 July 2012
    New research special - paleoclimate papers 2010-2011
    There will be another surprise batch for you in few days. Then, in next week we continue the normal New research from last week series with edition 31. There are few papers in that already. Those who cannot wait whole week can get notified of new papers in real time in Twitter or in Facebook. I also have my Twitter feed in the left column in my blog. These summer specials only covered 4 subjects but there has of course been papers from other subjects. You can browse old posts of New research from last week series here.
  40. Eric (skeptic) at 19:37 PM on 31 July 2012
    2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    zinfan94, your question and an answer to it were posted at WUWT. To briefly follow up here, I would not expect a USCRN comparison as part of a reanalysis of 1979-2008 trends for the same reasons that one was not done here: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL051387.shtml (I don't have that full paper however).
  41. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    I suggest a complementary approach to contradict Watts' paper: provide other evidences of recent warming in USA that are not compatible with low warming trends. For instance this study: http://passthrough.fw-notify.net/download/112635/http://www.wwww.aslo.org/lo/toc/vol_52/issue_5/2013.pdf Spatial analysis of ice phenology trends across the Laurentian Great Lakes region during a recent warming period The results clearly show ice retreat in the great lake area. The Watts results show that this region experienced low trend (0.135C/decade vs 0.37 "official" trend): how ice could melt without significant warming ? I found another article river temperature trend (unfortunately, paywalled ) http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/090037?journalCode=fron Also a recent article on forest phenology (end of growing season) (paywalled) Trends in fall phenology across the deciduous forests of the Eastern USA http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192312000500 This article use USHCN data Other approach, glacier change, such as this study: http://www.glaciers.pdx.edu/fountain/MyPapers/SittsEtAl2010_GlaciersMt.Adams.pdf Twentieth Century Glacier Change on Mount Adams, Washington, USA "The main driver of glacier recession appears to be summer air temperature, as little change in precipitation has occurred over the past century. All three temperature data sets show a significant increase in summer temperature beginning around the 1980s (e.g., Nylen 2004, Lilliquist and Walker 2006) corresponding to the rapid retreat in glacier area during the latter part of the 20th" In the northeast US, Watts' result shows very little warming (0.078) as compared to "official" trend (0.247). Glaciers are melting without warming ??
  42. Lindzen's Sandia Talk Contains his Usual Errors
    thanks
  43. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    From REP "When you read what Anthony posts, take the time to actually read it, think about it, and the implications will become obvious. We will be moderating strictly. Snark, outrage, disappointment, and instant-analysis of how that stupid Watts got it all wrong will, of course, be snipped." Instant analysis of how that amazing Watts got it all right will, of course, be scooped up and bathed in.
  44. New research special - paleoclimate papers 2010-2011
    Daniel J. Andrews - (Way off-topic) Surprisingly enough, flying cars are beginning to be available: Terrafugia - Complex, a bit marginal as a car, good flyer. Maverick LSA - Hot off-road car, slow flyer (paramotor). PAL-V - Trike/gyrocopter, nice compromise. No, I don't have a holiday gift list once I win the lottery - none whatsoever... --- Regarding the papers (back on topic): don't feel bad, I'm limiting my reading list to the subset of hemispheric/global reconstructions, which cuts it down quite a bit...
  45. Daniel J. Andrews at 07:53 AM on 31 July 2012
    New research special - paleoclimate papers 2010-2011
    Weekend?! Wish I had that level of knowledge. It'll take me longer than that. Feels like things leak out more ears faster than it goes in. Think my brain is full. Still waiting for those brain implant chips (and flying cars too).
  46. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    Good luck zinfan. I asked a pretty straighforward question in the WUWT comments regarding a discrepancy in the paper and got some rather rude responses from the moderator REP. They're not very open to criticism (or skepticism) over there.
  47. Of Averages and Anomalies - Part 1A. A Primer on how to measure surface temperature change
    Tom Curtis @14, thanks, the large anomaly in Greg House's example (as well as the small number temperatures) was what prompted me to try this with a larger number of stations and a more realistic anomaly. I feel like it makes sense (in a sort of intuitive manner) that the average of anomalies method would provide a more realistic approximation for stations with regional correlations, but I took the wording of the article to mean that the reason for this was something other than a physical cause. Now that I read that section again, it does say "Bearing in mind that Teleconnection means that adjacent stations will have similar changes in anomaly anyway, this ‘Average of Anomalies’ method is much less sensitive to variations in station availability." (emphasis mine), so I suppose it was a failure in reading on my part. Thanks for helping me sort that out.
  48. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    dana: OK. Got that. I am trying the same approach. I did put this comment up on the WUWT thread, suggesting that they should use the USCRN to identify siting issues. Currently the comment is caught in moderation, and its been awhile, so I copied and pasted the comment before it "disappeared". At the very least, the Watts et.al. team should be asked to do similar work to that done by Menne et.al. 2010, that correlated USHCN data with USCRN data. But they could move a long way to actually demonstrating and quantifying siting biases, if they just used the USCRN as the standard for comparison. Paul K2 says: Your comment is awaiting moderation. July 30, 2012 at 1:10 pm I read the paper, and it has some obvious problems. The most obvious is the lack of comparison between the USCRN and the different classes of stations in this paper. The USCRN should be the “gold standard” for station temperature measurements. If there are siting issues, you don’t need decades of data to spot the problem. The siting issues should be detectable, even with only 4-5 years of daily data. Since almost all of the USCRN stations now have over five years of data, correlating the Tmax and Tmin against the data from the various classes of “selected” stations in this report should be the obvious first step in identifying siting issues. Menne et.al. (2010) did this with the homogenized data from different subsets of stations, and found very strong correlations with the entire USHCN dataset (r2 = 0.98 for Tmax, and r2 = 0.96 for Tmin). The failure of Watts et. al. (2012) to complete the same exercise, should be rectified prior to publication. If the findings regarding siting in this paper are accurate, then the Class 1 and Class 2 sites should correlate strongly with the USCRN station data, and Class 3, Class 4, and Class 5 stations should have significantly lower correlations with the USCRN stations. If the correlations for the different station Classes identified in this paper are not substantially different enough to explain the large differences in decadal trends, then some of the other adjustments are likely responsible for the differences. For example, changes in time of observation, adjustment for a move of a station that was previously sited next to a heat source to a better location (that now allows the station to be classed as Class 1 or 2), switch to a different temperature measurement device or system, etcetera, could explain why smaller classes of raw data don’t track well with the overall trend calculated from homogenized station trend data. Not addressing the USCRN data is a serious shortcoming for this paper.
  49. New research special - paleoclimate papers 2010-2011
    Ari - An excellent collection of papers; I believe you have just filled my weekend...
  50. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #30
    zinfan - I don't know, Watts seems to be claiming that their new classification approach is a significant change from previous approaches, so I don't know if they would consider the USCRN stations class 1 or 2. We're working on a blog post that outlines the various issues with the paper though. Eevn though it hasn't been submitted, we're viewing it as an opportunity for Watts et al. to correct these problems before they submit the paper. Not that I expect them to do so, but at least we're giving them the opportunity.

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