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Comments 56301 to 56350:

56301. technophile50 at 01:10 AM on 29 July 2012
       Trigger for past rapid sea level rise discovered
       Re "The Greenland ice cap is not saddle shaped..." - 'Tis too, and the melt is already there. "Map showing where the albedo reduction is greatest; the southern ‘saddle’ region, the peripheral low elevation areas, and the northwest." http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=580 updated map of ice sheet albedo decline from Dr Jason Box - Box, J. E., Fettweis, X., Stroeve, J. C., Tedesco, M., Hall, D. K., and Steffen, K.: Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers, The Cryosphere Discuss., 6, 593-634, doi:10.5194/tcd-6-593-2012, 2012. If he says there's a saddle, I trust him. "An elevated occurrence of above melting temperatures are observed 11-14 July near the ice sheet topographic summit in an area typically considered to be melt-free, a.k.a. the “dry snow zone”. http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=556 "The process, named ‘saddle-collapse’, was found to be the cause of two three rapid sea level rise events: the Meltwater pulse 1a (MWP1a) around 14,600 years ago, and the ‘8,200 year’ event, and the unanticipatedly nonlinear Anthropocene Greenland event ca. 2000-2100." &;>)
56302. Physicist-retired at 00:59 AM on 29 July 2012
       Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt
       Daniel, "those that would have us debate the existence of gravity try to average-away the decline" Unfortunately, that 'averaging' was made by a Goddard glaciologist, not a climate skeptic. No 150-year melt cycle exists in the Greenland ice core record, and implying that this melt is 'right on time' is highly misleading. I see absolutely no discussion of this in any of the scientific reporting (most frustrating). The 'this is right on time' statement completely masks both the non-periodic nature Greenland melts in general, and the extraordinary anomoly of the July 2012 melt. Which is why I left my original comment here. My hope is that someone will cover it in more detail, and that it gets the attention it deserves.
56303. Daniel Bailey at 00:26 AM on 29 July 2012
       Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt
       Physicist-retired, indeed those that would have us debate the existence of gravity try to average-away the decline in extreme melt years evident since the Holocene Climatic Optimum, needing ever-more-extreme temperature excursions to drive extreme melt conditions. When one examines the insolation table above, the data shows good evidence that current temps are now forced well above HCO temps relative to available insolation (especially given that temps are a long way from equilibria). The takeaway I see is that, even at the summit, a very warm year puts the GIS at near-total ablation-zone status. Given the near-unprecedented, anthropogenic-derived warming currently being experienced and yet in the pipeline, coupled with a meandering and increasingly-sticky polar jet, total-melt-zone status will be a regular occurence in the very near future (per Box 2012). Like 2012, 2013...
56304. Physicist-retired at 23:51 PM on 28 July 2012
       Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt
       Regarding the current melt in Greenland, and this quote: "Ice cores from Summit show that melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average. With the last one happening in 1889, this event is right on time," says Lora Koenig... I’ve looked at the Greenland ice core data for the last 10,000 years. You can see it here: http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/DATA/alley1.gif It’s true that if one divides the total number of melt incidents over that 10,000 year record, it does average out to ~1 melt every 150 years or so. But it’s also true that only one melt event has happened in the last 800 years or so (1889). Am I missing something here? From that graph, this 97% July melt looks anything but 'typical'.
       Moderator Response: [RH] Hot linked GISP2 gif.
56305. Tom Curtis at 22:43 PM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       shoyemore @196, that joke still cracks me up. You may be interested to know that I passed it on to some other SkS authors, one of whom passed it on to Michael Mann. He liked it!
56306. shoyemore at 20:52 PM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       An Irishman was travelling in South America, where he fell in with two climate science deniers. They travelled together for a bit, but then had the misfortune to be captured by a gang of bloodthirsty banditos. These banditos had little use for foreigners so decided to execute them on the spot. As usual in these jokes, the three were allowed one last request. "Well," the first denier said "I will take time to tell you about the iniquitous Professor Michael Mann and his nororious Hockey Stick." "And, me "said the second denier, "I will tell you about the disturbing Climategate e-mails from the University of East Anglia.! "Oh, J**** Chr***!" said the Irishman, "Shoot me first! I can't stand antother lecture about bl***y Michael Mann and the Hockey Stick."
56307. Kevin C at 16:37 PM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Not sure it's worth adding this, but given that I'm playing the polymath today I may as well dig myself a hole... From a literary theory perspective there is not one 'Mikes' Nature Trick'. There are lots of different ones. Which one of them is real is a non-trivial question. Whether you can even claim one of them as 'real' is also a genuine issue. Here are the versions I identified after a too-brief consideration. 1. The calculation Mike did. 2. The calculation Mike thought he was doing at the time he did it. 3. The calculation Mike wanted the readers of MBH98 to think he had done. 4. The calculation a reader of MBH98 might infer from the text that Mike had done. (Technically there are as many of these as there are readers, although we could probably reduce that to a list of common interpretations.) 5. The calculation Mike thought he had done years later when the issue was first raised. 6. The calculation Mike thought he had done after checking back over what he had done. 7. The calculation Jones thought Mike had done from MBH98. (An instance of point 4) 8. The calculation Jones thought Mike had done on the basis of subsequent communications. (There may be multiple examples of these.) I suspect some of the confusion arises from the fact that we don't clearly distinguish which version of 'Mikes's Nature Trick' we are talking about. All this is fascinating if you are a literary theorist, but given the only impact is an irrelevant tail of an early and outdated analysis, it bears no relevance to the science. The fact that this article even had to be written, let alone that we have to discuss whether it is right, and get into these details, show how far the public debate has perverted the scientific process. MBH98 was groundbreaking science. Groundbreaking science is usually flawed, and gets refined in subsequent work. The subsequent work is probably still wrong. Give it another 30 years and we'll probably have a fairly clear picture. However to pretend this is pivotal to climate science or any political implications it may have represents at the very least a failure of perspective.
56308. JohnMashey at 16:30 PM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       4,26: 1) Whether Mann is a public figure, a limited public figure or not, 2) The extra bar for such is *not* that someone knew it was false, but that it was malice or reckless disregard for the truth. Of course, for such, past history can be *extremely* useful in showing malice. Google: libel reckless disregard OR libel malice 3) In any case, Mann's suit against Tim Ball in Canada is being handled by Roger McConchie, who wrote *the* book on Canadian libel law (1000 pages, I own a well-marked copy). The National Review complaint is being handled at Cozen O'Connor, by John B. Williams. I would suggest that people might want to do 2 things: a) Take a look at these lawyers and see if it sounds like they might know what they are doing. b) Study up a bit on libel law. See CCC p.184, for a few starting points, for example.
56309. dr2chase at 14:11 PM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       Sceptical Wombat @4 - I do not know the law, but it seems unjust if one can be transformed into a public figure only through one's fame from being slandered and libeled.
56310. curiousd at 12:21 PM on 28 July 2012
       AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
       John Cook, I am working on the project quite seriously. But there are many issues to consider and some of this may even require travel on my part.
56311. Tom Curtis at 12:15 PM on 28 July 2012
       AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
       curiousd, John Cook like most of the contributors to SkS is very busy, and not paid for his contributions to SkS, nor for hosting it. I am sure that he attempts to read the comments on a regular basis, so that commenting here or on the SkS facebook page are probably among the most reliable ways to contact him. There is, however, no guarantee. For what it is worth, I have drawn attention to the fact that you are trying to contact him on another forum I know he frequents. There is no guarantee that he'll read that, either, and even if he does he may well be too busy in any event.
56312. curiousd at 11:52 AM on 28 July 2012
       AGU Fall Meeting sessions on social media, misinformation and uncertainty
       Is there any way to post a response to something from John Cook and know he reads it?
       Moderator Response: [DB] I have sent a message on your behalf to him.
56313. Eric (skeptic) at 11:45 AM on 28 July 2012
       Water vapor in the stratosphere stopped global warming
       Daniel the issue does deserve a better analysis. Strat. WV is increasing in the stratosphere above Boulder (fig 2 above) long term. And SWV arrives in the stratosphere from storms (observations described in the article I linked). Ozone is off topic in this thread, but when I looked it up I saw this simple page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brewer-Dobson_circulation There are influences on Brewer-Dobson such as ENSO http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JAS3433.1 There are other contributions to SWV like methane oxidation.

       Here's some support for the "stronger storms causes SWV" hypothesis: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA.....1794W

       Recent observational studies indicate that the lower stratospheric water vapor concentration increased by 1 to 1.5% annually in the midlatitudes in the last 35 years. The mechanism proposed here may serve as a key process in the possible explanations for the observed trend.

       On the other hand, there's evidence for the opposite conclusion for SWV trends, http://acd.ucar.edu/~randel/H2O_after_2001.pdf "Global satellite observations from HALOE show a substantial, persistent decrease in stratospheric water vapor since 2001." Obviously 5 years won't say anything about long term trends and attribution, but it rules out simple depictions like the paper I originally linked unless their explanation also includes these natural fluctuations.

56314. tmac57 at 11:19 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Brandon, if Mann's so called 'trick' is so central to your critique of mainstream climate science,and results in what appears to be nit-picking on your part,what then,do you make of the many errors that the 'skeptical' climate scientists have been called on? Do you or McIntyre,Watts,etc. endlessly probe the minutiae of those scientist's works for any cracks in the facade of their scientific credibility,searching endlessly for fraud? Point me to any 'climate skeptics' who did this same level of trashing of the Douglas et al 2007 paper for example. Why do I have the feeling that you have only challenged the consensus climate science?
56315. Daniel Bailey at 09:45 AM on 28 July 2012
       Water vapor in the stratosphere stopped global warming
       

       "It sounds to me like this is a strictly localized effect."

       Not exactly up to your usual standards of analysis, Eric. Heart just not into it today?
56316. Tom Curtis at 08:54 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Hameiri @190, when the so-called hockey stick was first presented to the public by Nature in 1998, there was no truncation. MBH 98 and MBH 99 did not use any data with a divergence problem, so there was no "hide the decline" either, which is a separate issue. Nor was the proxy record extended by the use of instrumental record. Individual proxies that terminated before 1980 where extended to 1980 by persistence, ie, by repeating the last value up until 1980. As proxies tended to follow temperature, and temperatures were rising in the 20th century, this would introduce a cold bias to the proxy record in the 20th century. Instrumental values were used to create end points beyond 1980, ie, where no proxy record existed, in creating the smoothed function. However, as discussed above, the smoothed function was not the reconstruction, and was not used in deriving any scientific results. What is more, using other methods (persistence, proxy mean, mean of last 25 values) all represent a choice to "predict" that global temperatures cooled significantly after 1980 and that therefore the proxies would show that "cooling" when in fact we know global temperatures warmed. This is what really annoys the fake skeptics about Mann's choice with regard to smoothing. He chose not to show a cooling in the smooth which he (and they) knew to be spurious.
56317. KR at 07:55 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Hameiri - Rob Honeycutt is quite correct. The _right_ way to disprove someone's conclusions is to provide your own, with better support from the evidence. Every year there are more science papers submitted. Many don't get through peer review due to obvious mistakes. Others pass peer review, and are found lacking - additional papers point out the issues, and we learn, and we move on. Others are found to be rather pointless (gravity proven for the Nth time!) and are just ignored. There are no paleotemperature reconstructions that contradict the basic conclusions of Mann's work, whether the initial 1998 paper or later ones (including by Mann himself) - recent warming is faster, and currently warmer than, any time in the last few thousand years. If you disagree, present your evidence and let everyone take a look at it. That's science, not whining about minutia and claiming it invalidates the broad strokes of the work in the field. And so far, skeptics have not ponied up...
56318. Rob Honeycutt at 07:31 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Hameiri... If anyone bothered to actually read the papers it would be clear what Mann was doing. Heck, the color version of the graph clearly uses a different color for the instrumental record. What more can you want? Also, Sphaerica didn't say that "he" doesn't care, he said, "no one" cares. I have to agree with him. It's really a completely pointless exercise to "audit" a scientific paper the way McIntyre has. Scientists are allowed to get things wrong! But wrong results become apparent when further research shows things to be different. That's not what has happened with Mann's work. Further research has, in fact, confirmed MBH's conclusion... repeatedly. So far no multiproxy reconstruction has shown anything other than what MBH showed. So, the "skeptics" need to put up or shut up. Either produce a good quality reconstruction that produces results that calls the other research into question, or... (self snip)
56319. Klaus Flemløse at 06:13 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       I have tried to transfer money to Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, but it the donation page does not work today.
56320. curiousd at 06:07 AM on 28 July 2012
       Newcomers, Start Here
       To John Cook, I have been deep into contacting, and reviewing various kinds of solar charities/offsets and found a lot of interesting things. But to do this right is going to take a while. There are complications. For instance, say you have two efforts that were equivalent otherwise, but one was in a population that had a high growth rate within a forested area and another was in a stable population. It might be argued that for the rapidly growing population, improved birth control would be the better choice for a contribution and in the stable population case, the solar offset would be better.
56321. Kevin C at 06:07 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       Disclaimer: I am not a sociologist or a social anthropologist. Therefore the following analysis is at risk of Dunning-Kruger. There is something interesting going on. Many of the same blogs which condemned the Heartland unabomber poster, and in some cases also the SkS hack, are posting the Mann slanders, or at least posting material which allows the reader to infer them. How can the skeptic community not have learned from Heartland? What is going on? The easy answers are that they are morally deficient, or maybe saw an expediency in condemning one case but not another. I don't believe either of these. Most people don't do things they recognize to be evil. I think we are seeing the scapegoat mechanism at work. A community at stress seeks outlets for that stress, frequently through finding a figure to blame: The well known fictional archetype is Emmanuel Goldstein in Orwell's '1984', although there are also obvious historical examples. The scapegoat becomes an archetype, a dehumanised recipient for all of the frustrations of the community. This explains why the targeting seems so arbitrary. Why a palaeoclimatologist, when there are much more obvious targets? It was chance, but once established in the role, the myth takes over. It also explains the apparent double standards, condemning some outrages but turning a blind eye to anything concerning Mann. If correct, this analysis gives some pointers in responding:
       1. We must not accuse those who are perpetuating this material of evil. To do so represents a failure to understand what is going on, and in doing so shuts down communication. Point the unfounded nature of the accusations and the injustice of the comparison.
       2. We must be vigilant in avoiding casting prominent skeptics in scapegoat roles ourselves. Otherwise we just perpetuate a cycle of rhetorical violence, and the outside observer will rightly conclude that neither side is capable of reasoned discourse. However, the scapegoat mechanism is part of our anthropology: Avoid it involves constant and careful self examination.
       3. Bear in mind that the scapegoat mechanism is a stress relief mechanism. If things get worse, that may well indicate that stresses within the skeptic community are also increasing. (Note: I am studiously avoiding the obvious Gandhi quote here. Persecution can be an result of progress, but should never be mistaken for a measure of progress.)
56322. Hameiri at 05:37 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Sphaerica - That you don't care is interesting. When the "hockey stick" was first shown to the public in presentations and documentaries, I don't believe this truncation and appending was made clear. They were trying to prove a point, and they didn't want to muddy the waters. Well, whether you care or not, the waters are muddy now!
56323. IanC at 05:09 AM on 28 July 2012
       Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
       Dikran, Yes it is really a subtle point, and I probably won't have picked it up either if David hadn't point out the problem. However no matter how simple the argument is, I agree that the argument should be as accurate as possible. Given that the strength of a hurricane theoretically depends on temperature contrast between the surface and tropopause, rather than the temperature itself, we should make that clear. I suggest that instead of "extra heat in the air or the oceans is a form of energy, and storms are driven by such energy", we can replace it with "due to the greenhouse effect, the surface is warming relative to the top of the atmosphere, which in turn increases the amount of energy available for driving hurricanes." I believe it is consistent with the physics, yet avoids the need to discuss the thermodynamics. An advance version, where the thermodynamics can be examined in greater detail, will certainly be useful. When I attended a talk given by Kerry Emanuel a few months ago I was quite fascinated by the theory, and found thermodynamics to be interesting for once!
56324. CBDunkerson at 05:04 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       HS, by 'lawsuits going the other way' I assume you mean climate scientists suing 'skeptics' for defamation. Why would you "wonder whether people want this door open"? I'd say it is long past due. The simple fact is that the courts in most countries have strict standards on what sort of 'scientific' is admissible... and virtually the entire body of 'climate skepticism' would not qualify. Basically, climate 'skeptics' are even more at a disadvantage in the legal arena than they are in the scientific... and getting trounced in the court-rooms will make it much harder for them to make progress on 'public opinion' - the one area where the facts being against them isn't a major impediment.
56325. HS at 04:23 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       (snip) Either way, this will open the door to further lawsuits going the other way; there was the Rahmsdorf case in Germany already. I do wonder whether people want this door open. (snip)
       Moderator Response: [RH] Moderation complaints snipped.
56326. Eric (skeptic) at 04:13 AM on 28 July 2012
       Water vapor in the stratosphere stopped global warming
       Stronger storms may destroy ozone (subtitle: Extra water vapor up high coul trigger destructive chemical reactions)

       For now, the danger exists only on paper. Actual measurements tracking chlorine compounds in the stratosphere would help to confirm whether the damage is taking place and, if so, how widespread the problem may be

       It sounds to me like this is a strictly localized effect.

56327. Albatross at 04:10 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       Brandon @20, Thanks for your response, although it is unfortunate that your reprehension of Mr. Steyn's slander and falsehoods had to be solicited. As for your claim that you have not attempted to obfuscate, I think readers of this thread and the Muller thread will see it very differently. As for your claim that the main post contains a factual error, I'm afraid that you have not made a compelling case in that regard, as has also been noted by other commentators. Regardless, for argument's sake even if the main post does contain a factual error, it does not make the actions of Mr. Steyn (which were likely inspired by Mr. McIntyre's musings) or the repeated attacks on scientists by Mr. McIntyre and his ilk any less reprehensible or defensible. "but it is inexcusable to compare anyone to a child molester" Then I hope you will join me in condemning the following comments and innuendo made at ClimateAudit following a post by Mr. McIntyre (posts which were not moderated): "Posted Nov 15, 2011 at 11:35 AM | Permalink | Reply A month or so ago, Judy Curry had a thread on a study of Jungian psychological profiles of climate scientists vs other physical scientists, and the results were quite striking. They are indeed, very, very different. It isn’t just your imagination." "Posted Nov 15, 2011 at 10:05 AM | Permalink | Reply .....Steve, thank you for once more drawing attention to the strange personal properties that can be acquired by some scientists. The one that bothers me most is the departure from the generally accepted “scientific method” in the loose sense. It seems that it is often accompanied by departure from the norms of general social conduct, such as a reticence to conduct an honest inquiry, a dogged defence of inventive methodology that is plausibly flawed and so on to areas seldom discussed." Brandon "I have little interest in op-eds." I'd strongly suggest that you read Mr. Steyn's article, you might see some familiar accusations thrown around, some of which appear to have originated at ClimateAudit. His article is also critical to the main post. So you never read the op-ed by Mr. McIntyre that is demolished by DeepClimate then?
56328. Rob Honeycutt at 04:04 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Brandon... We've all had our comments deleted from time-to-time here. I've written articles here, I'm pro-AGW, and occasionally I step over the line and get my comments deleted. This is not an "anything goes" website. It's more of a regulated boxing match here with rules on how to keep the fight clean and fair. It's not a cage match like many other climate related sites. And I know this is off topic so that's all I'll say. Thx.
56329. Daniel Bailey at 03:48 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Brandon, you used what in sales and marketing is called a presumptive internal call for agreement for an implied conditional statement; an agreement equivalent to saying "if beating your wife is unacceptable on this site..." Stick to the science instead of ideology and spin and you will find, like most participants here, that this site is a haven of adult dialogue (and moderation-free) in a blogosphere predominantly adolescent in nature. It really isn't all that difficult. I recall a 14-year old girl posting here with no difficulties whatsoever.
56330. DSL at 03:43 AM on 28 July 2012
       Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
       I still don't see where the comment in question: "The background to these enquiries stems from a simple observation: extra heat in the air or the oceans is a form of energy, and storms are driven by such energy. What we do not know is whether we might see more storms as a result of extra energy or, as other researchers believe, the storms may grow more intense, but the number might actually diminish." is claiming that "all energy" is being converted to mechanical. 1. The background to these enquiries stems from a simple observation. 2. extra heat in the air or the oceans is a form of energy 3. and storms are driven by such energy. 4. What we do not know is whether we might see more storms as a result of extra energy 5. or, as other researchers believe, the storms may grow more intense, but the number might actually diminish. Is it in point 3, the "such" of which I read as "increased lower trop and sea surface temp"?
56331. Brandon Shollenberger at 03:40 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Daniel Bailey, I have a copy of my deleted comment, and no matter how many times I reread it, I can't figure out what in the world you're talking about. I'm going to take that as a sign I shouldn't post here anymore. I apparently just can't figure out how to do it successfully.
56332. Dikran Marsupial at 03:37 AM on 28 July 2012
       Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
       cheers Ian, you do a much better job of explaining the issue! It seems to me one of those things where a straightforward presentation for the general public isn't actually the whole truth, but is enough to convey the basic idea. Perhaps there needs to be an advanced version of the post?
56333. Brandon Shollenberger at 03:23 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       Albatross, there have been no "attempts to obfuscate" anything. I saw a factual error in a post, and I pointed it out. That's all. My views on anything else in the article have nothing to do with whether or not what I took to be a factual error is in fact a factual error. As it happens, I hadn't read the article you're talking about, and I still haven't. I have little interest in op-eds. That said, I can give a general view. If the article compares Michael Mann to someone guilty of child molestation, I think that's completely unacceptable. I have no problem with people drawing parallels between how incidents were handled (as in, whether or not investigations were adequate), but it is inexcusable to compare anyone to a child molester. I don't know why my views on the subject should matter to anyone, but hopefully that clarifies things.
       Moderator Response: [DB] It is noted that it is Brandon's perception that there is a "factual error" in an SkS post. Thus far, he has yet to provide convincing evidence to prove his central tenet.
56334. BKsea at 03:12 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       I find it ironic that people are saying Mann's efforts are going to invoke the "Streisand effect" given that the "fame" of Mann is due primarily to the Streisand effect - he would probably be little known outside of climate science but for the efforts to trash his name. I also think you need a graphic of the hockey stick graph with a big arrow pointing to the blade with the caption "This is the problem," and another arrow pointing to the handle with the caption "this is what we are arguing about." In my mind, we could throw out Mann's entire body of work and it would not change the climate narrative one iota - we are still facing dangerous warming.
56335. IanC at 03:04 AM on 28 July 2012
       Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
       Dikran, Kelvin's version of the second law states that No process is possible in which the sole result is the absorption of heat from a reservoir and its complete conversion into work. i.e. some of the heat extracted from the warm source must be transferred into the cooler reservoir. Effectively the 2nd law states that not only do you need a cold reservoir to receive the heat that is not converted to work, there is also an upper limit to how much work you can extract. Any statement indicating otherwise amounts to a violation of the second law, and any machine that is more efficient then what 2nd law allows is a perpetual machine. Having a cooler reservoir is necessary but not sufficient to comply with the second law. You also have to make sure that the machine does not do more work than the second law allows.
56336. Albatross at 02:54 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Brandon, I am an open person too, so are all the people posting here. I am not sure what the point of you saying that is. Numerous of my comments here at SkS have been moderated (no one's fault but mine I might add), and IIRC even deleted (again, my wrong doing), but that is not an excuse for me or anyone else to stop posting here or to avoid answering direct questions. So please stop making excuses and avoiding answering the question; I have posed it to you again on the relevant thread here and would be very grateful if you answered it. Thank you.
56337. Albatross at 02:48 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       What I am interested is whether or not Brandon agrees with Mr. Steyn's article. That is where he initially posted. So far Brandon has not said either way, although one could rightly assume his attempts to obfuscate and his silence on the matter as tacit approval of what Mr. Steyn said. I also wonder how Brandon would feel had made similar false accusations against Mr. McIntyre of the same falsehoods in a newspaper? I hope that we can receive an unambiguous and unequivocal answer from Brandon.
56338. fishellb at 02:18 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       #4, my understanding is that Mann's attorney knows libel law very well and doesn't take cases he thinks he can't win. It will be interesting to watch this play out. And how the MSM react.
56339. Chris G at 02:17 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       I have sometimes thought that Mann 98 and the mention of "trick" retains traction by the deniers is because the paper and the comment were directed at an audience then that is different from the audience receiving it now. The audience then was more limited and all the members were quite familiar with the divergence problem. Not showing the declining (negative?) correlation in the graph in no way changed the knowledge base of the audience members at the time. Everyone had the same knowledge and no one was deceived, or felt that they had been. The audience today is broader and less informed, and so not showing it has the appearance (only) of an attempt to deceive, at least to some that don't like the implications of the data.
56340. Brandon Shollenberger at 02:16 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Albatross, I'm a very open person, and I'll happily answer questions people have for me. However, my last comment here got deleted. I don't know why it was, and since I apparently don't know how to post here without getting moderated, I don't think I'll be answering questions here. But anyone should feel free to get a hold of me elsewhere if they have questions for me.
       Moderator Response:

       [DB] Your previous comment received moderation due to a combination of inflammatory insinuations and moderation complaints. As has this one.

       The vast majority of participants in this venue never need nor receive any moderation, as they construct their comments to be in compliance with this site's Comments Policy. Having forced moderation on yourself in the past, this should come as no surprise to you.

56341. Tom Curtis at 02:11 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Shollenberger @183:

       "@181, that's a dashed line. You are saying a gap in a dashed line means the series terminated earlier than I say."

       1) It is a dashed line that just happens to end 25 years after the start of the series (1400 AD) and 25 years before the end of the instrumental record with both gaps being wider than the gaps than the typical gap between dashes. But lets ignore that inconvenient evidence (as it becomes apparent you are wont to do). If the actual dashed line ends 7-8 years prior to 1980, how could McIntyre know that the truncation was to 1980? At the very best he is relying on a bald assertion to claim his reconstructed technique was Mann's technique. Of course, the smoothed curve in MBH 99 terminates one or two years before 1980, in contradiction to McIntyre and consistent with a 40 year smooth with the end point of the padded data being 1998. How odd. Let me guess, is that also because its a dashed line?

       "One of the reconstructions [in an SkS post] was Mann's hockey stick. It, and all the other reconstructions in the figure, are smoothed. I take this to mean Skeptical Science is okay with people calling smoothed versions of temperature reconstructions temperature reconstructions. It technically isn't true, but effectively it is."

       2) It is one thing to use a smoothed curve of a reconstruction to represent a reconstruction in popular exposition. It is an entirely different thing to treat the smoothed curve as being the actual reconstruction so that you can impute malfeasance. You are clearly evading at this point. You have been shown to be straight forwardly wrong on two counts. Fess up, or show that you are quite happy with people saying untrue things about simple facts, so long as it is you saying the untruths.
       Moderator Response: TC: Edited to add quotes from a deleted comment to provide context, and so that that part of his claims not in direct violation of the comments policy can see light of day. (DB, feel free to delete this post if you think that crosses any boundaries.)
56342. Daniel Bailey at 01:53 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       KR, see my comment here Re: Mann's Law
56343. KR at 01:50 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       I find the focus on Dr. Mann (and his work from 15 years ago such as in recent comments here, as opposed to the dozen or so similar reconstructions using different data, different methods) to be a rather revealing Rorschach test for deniers - he's achieved an iconic status in 'skeptic' circles, and there seems to be some idea that if only the icon can be tarnished, all that inconvenient data will just go away... - which it won't. That entire line of attack simply reveals the paucity of the skeptic arguments. Argument ad hominem rather than discussing the facts, the science.
56344. dana1981 at 01:42 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       Albatross - I'd say the difference is that McIntyre is attacking the Penn State president and inquiry instead of directly criticizing Mann (though I didn't read his whole post, just the quotes at Deep Climate). He's indirectly inferring that Mann did something wrong instead of directly stating it as CEI and National Review did, and not comparing Mann to Sandusky as CEI did (propagated in the NR article quote). In short, McIntyre is behaving very Watts-like, throwing chum to his denialist readers without actually coming out and making specific accusations. This follows the behavior discussed in the final section of the post above, with denialist blogs frothing up their readers with these sorts of baseless accusations. As long as we're comparing the two investigations, it's worth noting that the Penn State football program brings in $60 million in annual revenue to the college, whereas Mann clearly does not. Thus there is no basis to infer that one coverup is evidence of another, since the underlying motivation of the former does not apply to the latter. To cut straight to the point, as noted in the above post, there is zero evidence that Mann did anything wrong. Even if the Penn State inquiry hadn't been 100% thorough, frankly the inquiry should not have been conducted to begin with. The McIntyres and Wattses of the world need to take their tinfoil hats off and stop with the baseless accusations which lead to abuse and death threats towards honest climate scientists. If you want to dispute the science, then do so, but stop attacking the messengers.
56345. chriskoz at 01:33 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       caerbannog @11, Thanks for that link to your calculations. Your honnest expectation (or maybe rhetoric sarcasm) is that deniers act logically. Nope. Your case proves again that in their actions, there is no place for any logic. What's the logic in this defamatory nonsense against Mike Mann? What are the motives of this individual called Ryan Simberg and CEI supporting him? I would call it the "final stage of denialism" - an attitude of a man who becomes so obsessed as to be detached from reality. He still has a chance to go back to reality by retraction and appology, otherwise he faces a certain defeat in the court case that would follow.
56346. dana1981 at 01:32 AM on 28 July 2012
       Esper Millennial Cooling in Context
       Aanthanur - even more shocking, they didn't bring the usual "tree ring proxies are unreliable" meme this time. Climate contrarian skepticism is very selective, which is why they're not actual skeptics. They're only 'skeptical' until they find information to support their pre-determined conclusion. That's not skepticism, that's confirmation bias.
56347. Albatross at 01:29 AM on 28 July 2012
       Mann Fights Back Against Denialist Abuse
       I wonder where Mr. Steyn derived his inspiration from and what information on the internet piqued his interest as well as his imagination? Well, coincidentally (not) a certain "auditor" has been trying quite hard (see here, for example) to draw parallels between the tragic Sandusky affair and Dr. Mike Mann. Mr. McIntyre is then happy to let those uninterested with facts and the truth let their imaginations run wild. One has to wonder why Dr. Mann's lawyers have not yet sent a similar letter to Mr. McIntyre? Such a letter id long overdue in my opinion. And this OP once again clearly demonstrates why the the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund is (unfortunately) so badly needed.
56348. Tom Curtis at 01:09 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Shollenberger @180:

       "But that has no bearing on the fact Michael Mann appended instrumental temperature data to his reconstructed historical record, smoothed the resulting series then published that (truncated at 1980) as a reconstructed historical series. It also has no bearing on the fact this Skeptical Science article contains a factual error."

       You certainly like throwing out falsehoods. MBH 98 contained a reconstruction of temperatures over the last 600 years at annual resolution. The smoothed line was not the reconstruction and has not been claimed to be the reconstruction by Mann or his co-authors. The claim that it is the reconstruction is an invention by fake climate-auditors who, by that invention pretend they are making substantial criticisms when they are quibbling about irrelevancies. Again, I quote Michael Mann:

       "In some earlier work though (Mann et al, 1999), the boundary condition for the smoothed curve (at 1980) was determined by padding with the mean of the subsequent data (taken from the instrumental record). This does make a small difference near the end of the series. It doesn't effect any of the conclusions drawn in the paper though. These were based on comparisons of the individual reconstructed annual values (individual years and decadal averages over 10 consecutive years) from AD 1000-1980, with those from the recent instrumental record (1981-1998), and centered on the fact that the recent instrumental values were outside the error range of the reconstructed values over the past 1000 years and were not related to the smoothed curve. This figure shows the comparison of the originally published result with an alternative smoothing based on our more recent approach which does not use any instrumental data."

       (My emphasis) Again, when will you stop "saying untrue things about simple facts"?
56349. Tom Curtis at 01:01 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Shollenberger @180: Detail of fig 5 of MBH 98: (Red marks added to show 1900 and 1950) Please note that the smoothed curve terminates around 1973, not 1980. Clearly, therefore, McIntyre's reconstruction of Mann's "third step" is incorrect. You will note, of course, that no matter how carefully we examine McIntyre's code, it will not make the smoothed curve MBH 98 terminate in 1980. So, here is the question, will you acknowledge that McIntyre's reconstruction of Mann's smoothing method did not in fact successfully reconstruct that method? Or will you continue to "say untrue things about simple facts"?
56350. Brandon Shollenberger at 00:48 AM on 28 July 2012
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Tom Curtis @173, yes, that's correct. And as Steve McIntyre (as well as many others) has pointed out, Phil Jones did not truncate the series as Michael Mann did. This means what he did is not actually the same as what Mann did. But that has no bearing on the fact Michael Mann appended instrumental temperature data to his reconstructed historical record, smoothed the resulting series then published that (truncated at 1980) as a reconstructed historical series. It also has no bearing on the fact this Skeptical Science article contains a factual error.
       Moderator Response: [DB] Note that a laser-like focus on some minor technical point doesn't alter a paper's conclusions at all.

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