Arguments
Recent Comments
Prev 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 Next
Comments 5751 to 5800:
-
scaddenp at 07:31 AM on 29 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
I agree with Bob - Dale H appears to be confusing physical models with statistical models. Flying a drone on Mars shows you what physics modelling can achieve.
A good introduction to nature of climate model is here. There is also an old discussion here which explores some of the differences between climate models and other kinds of numerical models.
Finally, (putting on a moderators hat), discussions about reliability of climate models should be placed here.
-
Jim Hunt at 19:49 PM on 28 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Thanks again 1Planet,
I don't usually frequent Reddit. Why do you suppose that the few references to the "open letter" that do get published in the MSM all seem to be "scrubbed" shortly thereafter? -
Doug Bostrom at 11:38 AM on 28 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
A little further to Bob's point, try visiting scholar.google.com and entering "constraining climate models" (in quotes). That's a primitive search term but will produce a result helpful for understanding the phenomenal effort devoted to keeping models in the paddock labeled "realistic."
Models are kept on a tight leash and are not free to run away in imagination.
-
Bob Loblaw at 10:57 AM on 28 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Dale H:
You said "As you all know in modelling you can predict outside the current data but the model error will go up as leave the data set."
Although what you say is very common in statistical fits to data (interpolate, don't extrapolate), it is much less common in models that are based on physics. Climate models have some statistical derivations for small-scale phenomena, but the bulk of the calculations are based on well-defined physical relationships and include things like conservation of energy that controls long-term behaviour. They are much less likely to show extrapolation errors.
-
Dale H at 09:38 AM on 28 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Eclectic
Thank you for the information above as it was all new to me as my investigation into climate change has mainly been from 1880 to the present with a little bit around the little ice age plus the higher sea levels 1000 to 1250 AD.
I am sorry about breaking policy guidelines as it wasn't my intent and will adjust my questions. It was just one question lead to another and I didn't see threads with graphs about CO2 and temperature levels in the dinosaur age on the website as I had noticed were higher on google but wanted good data. I also started here because on the newbie page I mainly saw people complaining about deniers and was hoping for some colaboration to help point me to which projects have a greater acceptance.
As mentioned I have delivered over 1000 projects and workshops in the food business on 4 continents and we always let the facts and models find as close to truth for us and then model out multiple scenarios to help achieve results on their goals and what they can afford. The data has no room for denial but people don't like change so their starting point on most things is denial and we use facts and to help and outcomes to help change them. There is some advantage that the Food business isn't political but there is always different agendas in corporations etc.. on having the results that would benefit them. I found it surprising at the amount of politics on the website which will immediately get the opposing parties backs up and stop the exchange of ideas. I truely believe there is alot more hard work and wisdom in the area that isn't getting out to the public probably on the 5 to 10 fold scale. On deniers one of the reasons I honestly looked at the area at first is I was hearing outrageous claims of what was going to happen. I said maybe but would have to look at as much of the raw data and model outputs myself. Once I looked into it I could see some classic cherry picking the time period, changing the scale etc.. which would give misintented results that is easy for deniers to poke holes in the conclusion and once you lose credibility on the data set it is difficult to get back. I also saw that if you looked at the whole dataset the trend and results show the same result of an increase but maybe on a slightly longer timeframe and was a missed opportunity on changing deniers opinion in some cases. For myself it led to realize that we are affecting climate and I had to tease out the last few questions I had to see any natural increase. (sea level going up before the industrial revolution, why the slow down in the 30's & 40's and a few other things).
I do think you are selling yourselves a little short and have an opportunity to point out that we have over powered the latest decrease in solar irradiance and sunspot decrease and the temperature is still rising as further proof.
My hope was to learn more and possibily collaborate on the full picture to help in anyway I could. As you all know in modelling you can predict outside the current data but the model error will go up as leave the data set. My thinking was as we leave the most recent area were CO2 has been the last few million years why not try to learn as much as we can in the dinosaur period when temperatures and CO2 were hotter to help our knowledge and what we are up against. In addition, as you know match your presentations to your audience varying details/complexity to some groups and the big picture with simple reasonable outcomes with executives.
I will continue to go through the site to look for knowlege on the areas mentioned for question to stay within policy. If you have any good datasets and hypothesis it would be appreciated. Since this may not to policy and not to bore everyone on the site please contact me dale.hansson@verizon.net and I would love to learn and help in anyway.
Dale
Moderator Response:[DB] For a discussion of previous climates with high levels of CO2, see this post:
https://skepticalscience.com/co2-higher-in-past-intermediate.htm
Over the Earth's history, there are times where atmospheric CO2 is higher than current levels. The planet experienced widespread regions of glaciation during some of those periods. Does this contradict the warming effect of CO2? No, for one simple reason. CO2 is not the only driver of climate. To understand past climate, we need to include other forcings that drive climate.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016703706001979
http://droyer.web.wesleyan.edu/PhanCO2(GCA).pdf
Atmospheric CO2 levels have reached extremely high values in the deep past, possibly topping over 5000 ppm in the late Ordovician around 440 million years ago. However, solar activity also falls as you go further back. In the early Phanerozoic, solar output was about 4% less than current levels.
If climate scientists were claiming CO2 was the only driver of climate, then high CO2 during glacial periods would be problematic. But any climate scientist will tell you CO2 is not the only driver of climate. Climatologist Dana Royer says it best:
"the geologic record contains a treasure trove of 'alternative Earths' that allow scientists to study how the various components of the Earth system respond to a range of climatic forcings."
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-010-9633-1_4
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00151270Past periods of higher CO2 do not contradict the notion that CO2 warms global temperatures. On the contrary, they confirm the close coupling between CO2 and climate. When CO2 levels were higher in the past, solar levels were also lower. The combined effect of sun and CO2 matches well with climate.
-
Philippe Chantreau at 01:03 AM on 28 April 2021Skeptical about a defense of science?
Nice analysis DB. Mr Lucas' hypocrisy is, unfortunately, more the rule than the exception these days.
-
Evan at 22:45 PM on 27 April 2021SkS Analogy 22 - Energy SeaSaw
Thanks for the suggestion. I updated the post to include your suggested revisions.
-
Eclectic at 21:29 PM on 27 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Dale H @6 ,
a somewhat brief overview from me as a non-expert :-
The atmospheric CO2 level was very high "from the start", in the sense of Pre-Cambrian times. Fortuitously, the early Sun was significantly lower in output (insolation has been increasing by 1% per 120 million years approx.)
In the long run up to now, exposed rock has very slowly absorbed CO2 by "weathering" to form carbonate which ends up on the ocean floor (and/or subducted by tectonic movement). And part of these carbonates is recycled into the atmosphere by volcanic venting.
The rate of weathering has varied at times. Also, there was a large "plunge" in CO2 level during the fossil-carbon formation in the Carboniferous age (much plant life, and no large herbivores?). A separate plunge during the Ordovician age (somewhat unclear, owing to uncertainty from poor time-resolution). And some major spikes in CO2 (and temperature) owing to Large Igneous Province eruptions such as the Siberian Traps and the Deccan Traps events.
Overall, it's been quite a ride !
The present latitudinal positions of the continents (plus Antarctica at polar position) has predisposed to glacial times for our planet. And likewise, the current "low" CO2. And if I have gathered correctly ~ in about an estimated 15 million years' time, the CO2 level would have become low enough to embarrass the present species of plants (unless they suitably evolve their photosynthetic mechanisms). Obviously the 15 million year time-scale gives the human race considerable leeway in tackling that particular problem.
Dale H , my apologies if you were already aware of much of this broad background. The SkS website has a vast amount of detail available for your self-directed searching.
As you have said you have already spent a goodly amount of time researching climate matters, then it might be advantageously efficient if you gave specific indication of where you feel puzzled or where you feel the mainstream climate scientists might be wrong.
If you need to raise particular questions, then it is standard SkS policy that you place one or two questions in the most appropriate thread . . . and deal with those questions . . . and then progress to the next question you have in mind.
-
Dale H at 15:01 PM on 27 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
RH, Ecelctic, MA Rodger
Thank you for the help on where to look for the best articles on the changes in temperature and causes for the last 2 million years. I have read them a few times as well as other articles on the Milanovitch cycles. I am still digesting all of the learning and supporting documents but it gives me a good start on the earth's movement on climate plus some of the other factors that drive change and will have more questions soon.
It was also very impressive on all of the hard work and thought that has gone into this area and very much appreciate you spending time to help me sort through the numerous studies. As mentioned I have worked in the data and modelling field for 30+ years helping people understand what drives their business and love looking at facts and ideas. You both mention the declining CO2 levels which would lead me to my next question.
Do we have data or hypothesis on temperature and CO2 levels back to the dinosaur timeframe and how the CO2 levels became so high. Also on temperature do we have mid latitude increases because most of the people live in this area?
As mentioned I appreciate any of your wisdom you can share and if anyone else has any articles or ideas in the precurrent timeframe that they believe would be of interest please let me know.
RH I still haven't mastered the pasting of the image to fit into the webpage. Is there somewhere I could learn more about it?
Moderator Response:[BL] You cannot insert images directly into comments here.
On the screen for writing comments, you can use the insert/edit image icon (on the Insert tab), to create a link to an image that is located on another publicly visible web page. The Skeptical Science web page will then display that image as part of your comment, but it has to remain accessible on that external web page. This web page does not copy it.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 14:55 PM on 27 April 2021SkS Analogy 22 - Energy SeaSaw
Nice presentation. There are many possible examples but the sea-saw idea should be familiar to most people.
I just have one minor concern and suggestion.
The following statement at the end of the opening para under the Climate Science sub-heading could be misunderstood to mean that we need to wait until 2030 to see if the warming trend is continuing.
"To estimate the magnitude of global warming typically requires looking at atmospheric temperature trends from one decade to the next."
It may be clarified by ending it "... looking at temperature trends from one decade to the next, of by looking at the change of a 10 year moving average, or longer, as each new data point, typically each month, is obtained."
The SkS Temperature Trend Calculator can be used to see how this works. The default "Moving Average" is 12 months. For any chosen Start and End Date the appearance of the red line for the 12 month moving average can be compared to the appearance of the 120 month (10 year) or longer moving average.
There is no need to wait for the next decade to be completed to see what happened with the temperature trend.
-
MA Rodger at 17:49 PM on 26 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Dale H @3,
Further to #3, the declining CO2 levels over the last few ten-of-million years are usually put down to errision following the Himilayan mountain-building. The Antarctic ice appeared about 35Mya on the cooling planet. On a shorter time-scale, the shutting-off of the oceans between N & S America 3 Mya ago resulted in the appearance of the Arctic ice which has been fuelling ice ages ever since.
The frequency of these ice ages swapped from 40,000yr to 100,000yr roughly 1 Mybp (so your 1.2Mya @1). A mechanism for this transition is not entirely nailed down quite yet (eg see Chalk et al 2017 or Willeit et al 2019). However the usual suspect is the level of dust from exposed land during glacial cycles and its reduction of the ice albedo. So when the lands of northern lattitudes have been scoured clean back to the bedrock, the dust is greatly reduced and thus the albedo of the less-dusty ice caps does not decline so much during high glaciation, allowing ice a longer period before destablising into an interglacial.
-
Eclectic at 14:08 PM on 26 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Dale H @3 ,
it is interesting how (allowing for other input factors) the planetary temperature has broadly declined as the atmospheric CO2 level has declined. [As might be expected from basic physical principles.]
And it appears that a threshold was reached, about a million years ago, when the underlying regular Milankovitch cycle effects have become very prominent.
The (arguable) stability you mention, may arise from the time-compression appearance of the graph.
-
Dale H at 10:34 AM on 26 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Doug
Thanks for getting back to me so quickly. It was a number of graphs which included on Wikipedia Geological Temperature record article - chart Temperature of Planet Earth link below.
On the chart it shows the earths temperature alot warmer for over 250 million years and continuing to drop until say 1.2 to 2 million years it appears more stable. What do we think has caused this, earths orbit, sun strength etc..? Also for the record I have heavily studied all the recent data and believe humans have caused at least some of the warming if not most.
Moderator Response:[RH] Inserted image from link. You can do this yourself through the edit menu. Just click the "insert" tab, then the tree image icon, and insert the link there. Be sure to limit the image width to 550px.
-
Doug Bostrom at 06:20 AM on 26 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Dale, we'll need a little more to work with, to help answer your question.
If you could point us to the source of your query, we could narrow down the nature of the matter. Was this "new phase" and the time threshold of 1.2 million years ago something you read about, and if so where?
-
Dale H at 05:43 AM on 26 April 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
I am new to the site but have followed climate change as a hobby for over 15 years. For the record I am not a climate denier and have seen data debunking most of the climate myths listed. I am trying to learn more through facts or strong hypothesis as I have spent the last 30+ years working in the food industry convincing Directors to Presidents with data and models on what is driving their businesses.
My question is there any information that has caused the change in earths temperatures about 1.2 million years ago? We seemed to have been cooling off and then entered a new phase. Is it the sun's orbit?
-
One Planet Only Forever at 08:47 AM on 25 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Jim Hunt,
Though I do not recall seeing a CBC item about this the CBC News website Search finds one "World - CBC News" item containing the full title of the Guardian article ... but there is nothing there now other than the Search identifying that 1 item, likely scrubbed, was found.
And searches on a few other Canadian media sites do not find anything, which may mean that many Canadian News sites did not publish anything regarding the "Open Letter: Stop attempts to criminalise nonviolent climate protest."
-
One Planet Only Forever at 08:16 AM on 25 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Jim Hunt,
Unfortunately it appears that "mentions" of the letter you are referring to have been very effectively acted on by the Harmfully Powerful Interests controlling Propaganda for their maximum benefit.
The only mention of it I can find is This Reddit item which includes a link to an archive copy.
-
Jim Hunt at 07:12 AM on 25 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Thanks for that information 1Planet,
Have you seen any media comment in Canada, whether from the CBC, other mainstream media or even a humble blog, about the >400 signatures of climate scientists on the open letter that you can no longer read all about in The Guardian or MSN?
The list includes such world famous names as Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf. -
One Planet Only Forever at 01:25 AM on 25 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Jim Hunt,
Regarding criminalizing Climate Change Protests:
In Alberta, the first Bill that the newly formed United Conservative Party implemented after they won Majority Power in 2019 was Bill 1: CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEFENCE ACT.
The nastiness of the Bill - particularly the way it made it illegal for any protest to be held on any public surface that people may travel along, potentially applied to sidewalks and pathways in parks - has been publicly protested against, commented on in the media, and written about by people at Universities:
- CBC News Item "Rally at Alberta Legislature to protest passing of controversial Bill 1"
- University of Calgary Faculty of Law - ABlawg.ca items
And there is more harm being done than the efforts to "Criminalize" efforts to raise awareness and improve understanding of the harm of pursuing benefits from fossil fuel use.
The UCP also set up an investigation to find proof of foreign money creating misleading propaganda against Alberta pursuits of profit from fossil fuel activity - well presented in Wikipedia's "Public Inquiry into Anti-Alberta Energy Campaigns"
The ability of powerful wealthy people to "get the claims they like" to be more aggressively and more profusely publicly presented has been a scourge to the development of increased public awareness and improved understanding of what is harmful and how to helpfully limit and correct for the harm being done by selfish people competing for Perceptions of Superiority in games based on popularity and profit.
The Manufacturing Consent problem (also well summarized by Wikipedia), is alive and well today, with new mechanisms being grown by the harmfully selfish trying to protect their Undeserved Status, Status they got any way they could get away with and that they will defend any way they can get away with.
-
Jim Hunt at 19:42 PM on 24 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Further to #2 above, MSN published a clone of part of the Guardian article mentioned, which has now "disappeared" as well:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/04/stop-attempts-to-criminalise-nonviolent-climate-protest/#Apr-24
Fortunately in all the circumstances archived copies of both articles have been made. -
michael sweet at 07:16 AM on 24 April 2021It hasn't warmed since 1998
Vonyisz,
The answer to your question "what we know about changes in energy across the ocean today?". The ARGO floats measure most of the ocean to a depth of 2,000 meters. This part of the ocean is pretty well known. The areas under sea ice are harder to measure but not that extensive (and they are measured to some extent). Deeper than 2,000 meters is hard because there are not many old measurements. Fortunately, the change in temperature is small, hundredths to thousandths of a degree.
This article gives information on ocean temperatures to a depth of 4757 meters near Argentina. They were using equipment designed to measure currents and realized that they had sensitive temperature measurements also. Apparently these current measurements are done in many locations and scientists will use them to determine deep ocean changes for the past 10-15 years. These detailed measurements can be used to calibrate other older records.
The bottom line is that the deep ocean has not changed very much yet. Because it is so hard to measure the changes are not well characterized. Recent data will start to track deep ocean changes. Because the changes are small they do not affect the big picture of AGW.
A lot is known about ocean flow also. This article details changes in large eddies. Other currents are monitored regularly. Scientists often report that they are surprised by how fast everything is changing. They are optimistic at first.
-
MA Rodger at 16:48 PM on 23 April 2021It hasn't warmed since 1998
Vonyisz @412,
The use of energy fluxes and energy anomalies to account for AGW is the useful approach. Mind the global surface temperature that results remains the main measure of the problem. You subsequently argue that there are other measures of importance (eg wind, humidity) but these effectively all lead on from temperature, as does the poleward energy fluxes (which will increase under AGW thus and this result in the boosted temperature rises seen in Arctic Amplification).On the issue of PE. Yes the simplistic PE=mgh is correct (although it gets a little more complex when applied to a spinning planet). But from this point you entirely fail (and will fail) to present any significant increase in PE resulting from AGW. If the oceans were to warm by a single degree Celsius, the energy required to provide that temperature increase will be hundreds of times (using a very gererous Coefft of Thermal Expansion, 350-times) greater than the PE increase due to thermal expansion of the oceans. Similarly, the energy of Latent Heat required to evaporate a kg of water to add to the atmospheric mass would equal the PE required to raise such a mass 230km.
In general, such small factors involving PE are quite ignorable.
-
nigelj at 08:29 AM on 23 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
This climate denial issue is not a simple thing. Its like an octopus with many arms slithering around. People have various reasons that drive denial about issues of the day. It might be vested business interests, extreme levels of self interest and entitlement, seeking popularity, fear of job losses, addiction, fear of government control, religion, conspiracy thinking. This is easily observed.
Normally its possible to overcome these fears with time and facts, with the vast majority of people anyway, but something sems different with climate denial. It might be that its become so politicially tribal with the right wing genuinely believing climate science is some giant left wing conspiracy to enslave them to government control, (it isnt of course) and they see this as more of a threat than climate change. So its war, and in war anything goes including even the most inane and contradictory attacks on the science.
I'm not sure how you counter this. Although explaining the facts about the science is always worth a try, and its not going to hurt and it may convince a few people. I think its important to get across to denialists that the science of climate change goes a long way back predating things like socialism, and the modern green movement. But quite how you convince denialists that there is no giant left wing climate conspiracy to control people or take away freedoms or eat the bodies of their children god only knows. Its hard arguing with stupid.
-
One Planet Only Forever at 06:49 AM on 23 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Unfortunately, I encounter many people like T because I live in Alberta, Canada.
I have found it helpful to be more aware of the comprehensive presentations of history. And I try to stick to verifiable facts to refute modern day beliefs, especially about the history of what has happened (a good book on the topic is "Telling the Truth About History", by Joyce Appleby, Lynn Hunt, Margaret Jacob).
One important point is that Trump is not the only Republican to spout nonsense that appeals to easily impressed people. Many others were doing it before Trump chose to try to become "Their Leader". And they have done it on many issues, not just climate science and the related understanding of what is wrong with the developed socioeconomic political systems.
Bush declared that "Americans did not have to change how they lived" when he announced that the USA would not officially sign on to Kyoto. And Republicans since Nixon, and maybe before that, have appealed to the misguided "Utilitarian" belief that Being Harmful can be justified if there are Net-Benefits (Their Benefits as they evaluate things are greater than the Harm Done as they evaluate things). That incorrect thinking also suits the pursuit of Liberty that justifies harmful things by claiming the virtue of "Freedom". And it fits the pursuit of Purity and Nationalism that justifies harmful things by claiming only a limited diversity of ways of being human are acceptable and that "Interpretations of Old Books are Immutable Law".
I won't say I am always successful in changing every mind I encounter that has developed powerful selfish interests (Alberta has many people who are very powerfully motivated to maintain their developed beliefs). But sticking to the facts of the harm done and the nonsense that has to be believed to excuse the harmful behaviour does make some people appear to reconsider what and who they are choosing to believe. But then some of them state the classic nonsense excuse that "They have no choice - until someone else makes it easier and cheaper for them to not be so harmful" which they pair with a passionate dislike of regulation that restricts the harmful activity they could benefit from (making less harmful options easier) and really dislike Carbon Pricing that makes the harmful activity more expensive (making less harmful options cheaper). They seem incapable of seeing the irony of what they dislike while they claim to be willing to be less harmful if it was cheaper and easier.
-
Vanessa Witzki Colatusso at 05:15 AM on 23 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
I have many "Ts" friends ... Here in Brazil, since the last elections it was impossible not to leave an opinion in front of so many climatic absurdities proposed by the current government. The problem is that the government will always be the consequence of our society and never the cause.
-
Vonyisz at 03:52 AM on 23 April 2021It hasn't warmed since 1998
Thanks for your answers Eclectic michael sweet MA Rodger
I’m sorry if I was misunderstood when I called attention not to consider temperature as energy. I note that I consider this an important detail that cannot be ignored. I have quoted the sentences I have quoted in terms of method, of course I know, like everyone here, what has happened since then. I know that from a marketing point of view, it would sound pros and cons to describe global warming in ten powers and all this in Joules. It is easier to enter in degrees Celsius. But for that simplification, we are paying a high price. This is because we can easily liken an apple to an elephant. The temperature of the deep ocean is fundamentally determined by the amount of cold water: the largest "river" from the Arctic. „The total ocean heat content (all the way to the bottom) is probably a more scientific measurement but does not relate to people as well. Global warming warms the ocean all the way to the deepest depths. In general, the warming is slower the deeper you go.” – Sure?
„You follow that by the assertion that it is all about energy rather than temperature which is true but not greatly relevant as Ocean Heat Content is effectively a temperature thing.
And then you introduce the concepts of PE & KE.
Surely PE & KE are red herrings. Is there some part of the global system where mass is increasing in altitude? Are there parts of the global system where stuff is whizzing about faster? In energy terms, any such change globally (if at all) will be miniscule enough to be entirely irrelevant, thus the red herrings.” – E (pot) = m * g * h true or not? In terms of energy, it is important where (high and salinity) a 5 degree water in the ocean. In the same way, at different altitudes of the atmosphere, 5 degrees of air can be associated with different amounts of energy (the hidden energy of water vapor). This is not a joke, can we agree on that? Is the temperature almost energy? Are you serious? When tenth and hundredth of a degree Celsius changes are included in scientific articles, should we be generous and say that temperature is equal to energy? I understand that mathematical accuracy is different from physical accuracy. But this is an exaggeration. I think so. Although air temperature is significant in our daily lives, it is only one element of our sense of warmth. Other elements: wind, percentage of water vapor, temperature of surrounding objects, energy of current sunshine. It is not possible to snatch one of these five elements. On the other hand, in the energy balance of the earth’s surface (no matter how we determine what we include in it and what we omit), we can agree that the vast majority of energy is stored in the ocean. If we really want to study global warming, we need to look largely at the dynamics of the energy of the oceans. We don’t just need to be able to measure temperature changes. Not just the top 2000 meters. We need to explore the temperature profile of the entire ocean. We need to be able to examine the causality of the processes.In any case, there is a need to justify why the temperature at the poles is rising much faster than around the Equator. If it is also about accelerating heat transfer, there is also a chance that the deep ocean will cool faster. Because water vapor at the poles does not interfere with radiation (in the atmosphere), and because the radiation is proportional to the fourth power of the temperature (in Kelvin), the radiation at the poles has multiplied into space due to global warming and other processes. Although some of the cold produced in this way also cools the air around the poles, here I find it important to mention here that some of the cold “disappears” for us into the depths of the oceans (especially the Atlantic Ocean). How much of this cooling cools the atmosphere and the upper ocean and how much of it deepens the deep ocean? This process will really "explode" when the Arctic ice disappears. I was looking for a scientific description of this (believe me), I haven't found it on the internet yet.
It’s a mystery to me how warmer water gets into the deep ocean, as you can read in many places. I know there are salt fingers, but they don’t affect the area below 3,000 feet. You wrote (and thank you) to ask only one question, only one. Here’s what we know about changes in energy across the ocean today? Not just the top 2000 or 3000 meters, but the whole ocean! What do we know about changes in the great ocean flow system? Thank you in advance for your answers.
-
MA Rodger at 16:20 PM on 22 April 2021It's cosmic rays
yurivs @116,
The research you cite concerns the classification of cosmic rays that have been known about for decades. It does not alter understanding of the cosmic rays arriving at Earth, rather points towards whee they come from. As scaddenp @117 alludes to, Svenmark has been barking up the wrong tree for decades now in a hopless journey to prove that black is white.
-
Wol at 11:24 AM on 22 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Apologies for the spelling!
-
Wol at 11:24 AM on 22 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
As a long retired civvil pilot I have but a superficial training in meteorology and climatology (I can still use a tephigram but probably get the wrong answers<g>).
I'm politically somewhere to the right of Atilla the Hun; however this doesn't mean that I am obliged to close my brain down and go along with what has become a political fight by denialists.
There's certainly been a shift in public opinion about global warming these last five years but - and, America, I'm looking at you - there's a significant percentage of the population that is NEVER going to take the trouble to check the veracity of the huge amount of misinformation out there. It's almost comical that some can quote temperature CO2 and sea level data from millions of years ago yet without blinking rubbish what the same science is telling us now.
It's psychology bordering on psychiatry that's the issue, and I don't think there's any way of countering it - certainly not with facts.Scott Morrison, here in Australia, is making faint noises about minimal investments but it's merely to assuage some of the criticism without breaking from his close relations with parliamentary colleagues and the FF industry.
The even sadder thing is that, in the unlikely event that global gree efforts DO hold temperatures to a manageable level, the deniers' descendents will of course cry "There you are, what was all the fuss about - it was rubbish". We saw just that with the millenium bug!
-
scaddenp at 11:04 AM on 22 April 2021It's cosmic rays
If you look at the advanced tab, you see the steps that must be fufilled for GCR to influence climate. While it is great that advances are being made in understanding GCRs, I dont see how those discoveries impact in any way on creating a climate impact. The empirical evidence for correlation between GCR and cloud formation remains elusive.
-
yurivs at 08:21 AM on 22 April 2021It's cosmic rays
Hi
Do you know if this new discovery related to the "iron cosmic rays" in any way alters your refutations of the Henrik Svensmark hypothesis? Thanks.
- AMS reveals properties of iron cosmic rays;
- Ironing Out Cosmic Rays;
- Properties of Iron Primary Cosmic Rays: Results from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer.Moderator Response:[BL] This appears to be your first post here. Welcome to Skeptical Science! There is an immense amount of reference material discussed here and it can be a bit difficult at first to find an answer to your questions. That's why we recommend that Newcomers, Start Here and then learn The Big Picture.
Remember to frame your questions in compliance with the Comments Policy and lastly, to use the Preview function below the comment box to ensure that any html tags you're using work properly.
In particular, note that the Comments Policy states the following:
No link or picture only. Any link or picture should be accompanied by text summarizing both the content of the link or picture, and showing how it is relevant to the topic of discussion. Failure to do both of these things will result in the comment being considered off topic.
Simply asking others to read links and report back to you is frowned upon. Please provide some indication of what you see at those links, how it relates to the subject of this post (i.e., why it is on topic), and then ask specific questions.
-
Haiburton42 at 07:50 AM on 22 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
LOVE IT.
I do this all the time this is my life dude
Vroom vroom give me room fool[Chorus]
You can catch me
Switching lanes lanes
Switching lanes lanes
Switching lanes lanes
You can catch me
Switching lanes lanes
Switching lanes lanes
Switching lanes lanes
You can catch me
Switching lanes lanes
Switching lanes lanes
Switching lanes lanes
You can catch me
Switching lanes lanesSwitching Lanes
Kid Cudi
Album Dat Kid From Cleveland -
Jim Hunt at 22:10 PM on 21 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Scientists are not staying in their lane these days. They are protesting, or attempting to at least. However it seems the "powers that be" aren't very keen on that idea:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/04/stop-attempts-to-criminalise-nonviolent-climate-protest/
That article in the online version of the UK's Guardian newspaper was "redacted" shortly after publication on Monday.
-
MA Rodger at 17:53 PM on 21 April 2021It hasn't warmed since 1998
Voyisz @408,
You quote the OP which is making the point that Ocean Heat Content is the big recipient of the global energy imbalance caused by AGW (rather than the warming which results in surface temperature increases which is a minor recipient).
You follow that by the assertion that it is all about energy rather than temperature which is true but not greatly relevant as Ocean Heat Content is effectively a temperature thing.
And then you introduce the concepts of PE & KE.
Surely PE & KE are red herrings. Is there some part of the global system where mass is increasing in altitude? Are there parts of the global system where stuff is whizzing about faster? In energy terms, any such change globally (if at all) will be miniscule enough to be entirely irrelevant, thus the red herrings.
-
TVC15 at 06:29 AM on 21 April 2021'Disinformation ecosystem' - in broader context beyond climate
Why on earth was a warning placed on this video? Could it be those climate denier algorithms?
-
TVC15 at 06:20 AM on 21 April 2021'Disinformation ecosystem' - in broader context beyond climate
@ Marcin
I'm located in the US and when I click on the link it takes me to my YouTube account and once the video loads it states "This video may be inappropriate for some users” I have the option to click on the link below the warning that states: "I understand and wish to proceed".
It's sickening to me to see what my country has become. This video puts it in the spotlight. As a biological and medical scientist I am disgusted by the anti-science I see here in the US. We are seriously considering leaving this country.
Just last night I visited a forum I used to participate in trying to educate the climate deniers. I was astounded with the human caused climate denier comments. There's no getting through to a person with a climate denier mind. I wanted to jump in and correct all the distortion of facts and disinformation, but I realized I never want to waste anymore of my time on a forum with people of that mindset. I wasted years on there and the same people are parroting the same BS.
I digress. -
michael sweet at 06:18 AM on 21 April 2021It hasn't warmed since 1998
Vonyisz:
Interesting questions. Most of your questions are answered in other posts here on Skeptical Science.
First I would point out that the OP you are responding to was written in December 2007. Since then, as the OP correctly predicted, the temperatures have risen substantially and no-one seriously claims that the temperature is not increasing any more.
There are indeed many metrics that can be measured for heat content of the entire Earth. Most or all of them are measured. For a general audience, like here on Skeptical Science, the surface air temperature is easiest to explain and relates to peoples lives best. The total ocean heat content (all the way to the bottom) is probably a more scientific measurement but does not relate to people as well. Global warming warms the ocean all the way to the deepest depths. In general, the warming is slower the deeper you go.
I recently saw an article (sorry no cite) that said the surface ten meters or so of land has heated up more than scientists thought. As you point out measuring the heat content of soil is difficult, but scientists make the best estimates thay can. Scientists are contually improving heat measurements. Skilled scientists know these measurements and consider them but for the average man on the street (or woman) the surface air temperature means the most. The surface air temperature is noisier than ocean heat content but people relate to air temperatures better.
I have seen calculations similar to yours about melting the ice in the Antarctic (or Greenland). The point is that if all the ice in the Antarctic melted 65 meters of sea level rise would result!! So if only 0.1% of the Suns energy melted ice it would result in 6 centimeters of sea level rise per year! What a disaster that would be.
It turns out that scientists working full time on these difficult questions can reach fairly good approximations of all these measurements. Sometimes a new measurement changes the picture a little (like the land measurements mentioned above), but overall where the heat goes is well known. If you ask about a single one of the measurements you mentioned above perhaps someone can give you a citation. You have too many questions here to specifically answer them.
-
Eclectic at 06:05 AM on 21 April 2021It hasn't warmed since 1998
Vonyisz @408 :
You have gotten yourself all tangled up. Please step back and look at the overall picture ~ and at what has changed over the past (say) 150 years in our modern world.
The mean sea-level has risen, and continues to rise. The amount and distribution of planetary ice has reduced, and continues to reduce. The planet is warming ~ warming in ocean, topsoil, and lower troposphere. All the regions where plants & animals live.
You do not need to know worldwide soil temperature "all over the earth at a depth of one meter". Unnecessary detail !
But you do need to know the overall trend of warming ~ how large it is, what is causing it, and what we should do to counteract it. Over many decades, the climate scientists have discovered the trend, and its causations.
-
Vonyisz at 01:51 AM on 21 April 2021It hasn't warmed since 1998
I would have a methodological questions. As this text suggests:
„To claim global warming stopped in 1998 also overlooks a simple physical reality - the land and atmosphere are just a small fraction of the Earth's climate (albeit the part we inhabit). The entire planet is accumulating heat due to an energy imbalance. The atmosphere is warming. Oceans are accumulating energy. Land absorbs energy and ice absorbs heat to melt. To get the full picture on global warming, you need to view the Earth's entire heat content. More than 90% of global warming heat goes into warming the oceans, while less than 3% goes into increasing the atmospheric and surface air temperatures. Nuccitelli et al. (2012) showed that the Earth has continued to heat up since 1998.”
– global warming is not really about temperature, but about the amount of energy.
But this is often misunderstood. Throughout the media, global warming is portrayed as if it could be characterized by changes in temperature.
Q = c * m * ΔT, but here c is not an exact value, consider large pressure and temperature differences
E (pot) = m * g * h, E (kin) = (m * v ^ 2) / 2
And I would have more questions here.
1. What do we refer to the amount of energy? Atmosphere? The kinetic and potential energy of air? With or without hidden heat? (The equivalent potential temperature (theta-e) is the temperature a sample of air would have if all its moisture were condensed out by a pseudo-adiabatic process (i.e., with the latent heat of condensation being used to heat the air sample), and the sample then brought dry-adiabatically back to 1000 hPa.) Surface? How deep? One meter? More? Caves? Groundwater that has a connection to the surface? Top 200 meters of oceans? Or the whole ocean? Energy stored in salinity and depth? Ice? Melting or freezing energy? Potential energy?
1.conc. Average global temperature? Why? When misleading in light of the above: the amount of energy (no matter how we determine what we include in it) is not equal to temperature. Thus, a change in temperature cannot be equal to a change in the amount of energy! Not me saying that. The quoted text does this.
2. We determine what we want to measure. Can it succeed? Can we assign a global average to the temperature of the entire earth? When I buy myself a pair of pants, at least three metrics help me with that. And do we characterize the average temperature of the earth (or rather the total amount of energy) with a single data? Even if we do, what are we going to do with it? What usable speech data does this tell us? This is because exactly what spheres are included in the total energy calculation are closely related to this data. If we calculate this as accurately as we wanted, what can we say about how long this accuracy has been available to us in the past? 10 years ago? 100 years?
2.atm. Do we really measure the temperature and humidity and density of the entire atmosphere? Do we really know the temperature of the earth's surface all over the earth at a depth of one meter?
2.surf. Do we know how much energy is stored in that part of the earth’s surface that is involved in the processes detailed here, absorbs sunlight, and largely heats the atmosphere? Do we know its density? Do we know your specific heat? Do we know its water content? Maybe it's not just the top one that counts? Could it be several meters in some cases? Who can say that? How to calculate? If someone says something, what to expect from him? How do you justify his theory?
2.oce. Do we know the temperature and the amount of dissolved salt everywhere in the oceans? Of course, we don't have an instrument everywhere, we fill in the missing data with approximation calculations. What is the ratio of the total error rate caused by the approximate calculations to the percentage of change to be examined? I read in several places that only the top 200 meters of the oceans matter in terms of global warming. Others write 100 meters. Many people write that the deep ocean has only long-term effects, it doesn’t count in the heat balance in the short term. Why a hundred? Why two hundred? Why doesn't it matter? The limit drawn here seems very arbitrary to me, and in terms of the change in total energy ... it is important to decide and justify: whether or not to include the deep ocean in the energy balance when examining global warming!
2.conc. I see a lot of temperature charts pros and cons. This is how the temperature goes up or how the earth cools. But none of the camps really show how the total amount of energy on earth measured according to the principles detailed above has changed, at least in the last 10-20 years, where perhaps we already have evaluable data in this regard. How can we start a scientific debate without clarifying the framework? The concepts? Principles of repeatable measurements? How is the data processed? Both camps bombard the media with marketing texts that pick it up as raw material and distort it so that it will no longer be completely untraceable to the average person.
3. A degree of warming of the whole ocean is approx. on the order of 10 ^ 24 Joules. Melting the ice of Antarctica would absorb 10 ^ 24 Joules of energy. A degree of warming of the dry air is on the order of 10 ^ 21 Joules. The Sun kisses the Earth with 10 ^ 24 Joules of energy in one year.
Based on these, the scare that the entire Antarctic ice sheet will melt soon seems rather doubtful. This event would eliminate the amount of energy in a whole year of solar radiation (of the same order of magnitude). This needs to be justified! While land ice heats the air when it forms and cools the air when it melts, the formation of coastal ice hanging in the ocean heats both the surface of the ocean and the air, but its melting typically cools the deeper layers of the ocean. Interestingly, land ice can be coastal ice. I hope I use good concepts. The direction of energy as a whole: heat is transferred to the atmosphere from the deeper parts of the ocean. People with CO2 can't warm up the ocean as a whole, just the top few hundred meters. And that is my next question. Are we counting the incoming solar rays and the outgoing infrared rays in the total amount of energy on earth? For example, the city is 35 degrees Celsius in vain if objects are 50-70 degrees Celsius and radiate heat unbearably to humans, while the same 35 degrees in the forest is unpleasant but tolerable because here the temperature of the objects is not higher than the air temperature. Here, the air temperature alone is very misleading. And sorry for the analogy, do we count the energy on the ocean heat transfer road to the total amount of energy on earth? I would like to draw attention to a trap. When the ocean conveyor delivers less energy, the average temperature in the upper part of the ocean is lower, but in this case heat is trapped around the Equator and the poles cool. On the other hand, with higher energy transport, the surface temperature of the oceans increases, most of the excess heat arrives at the poles from around the Equator, so significant warming begins here, more significant than at the Equator. However, the excess heat at the poles also means that the earth's surface can radiate over a larger surface at a higher temperature (T ^ 4). Overall, more heat is dissipated compared to when the capacity of the oceanic strip was smaller, disregarding other factors. I am thinking in particular here that, as soon as the Arctic ice melts in the summer, this process must be taken into account, because the thermal insulating effect of the ice will disappear.
3.conc. Is it conceivable that a change in the latter will affect a change in the distribution of the total amount of energy on earth? Perhaps these and other relevant metrics can bring the understanding and explanation of global warming closer to both experts and the average person? -
Marcin Popkiewicz at 21:24 PM on 20 April 2021'Disinformation ecosystem' - in broader context beyond climate
The video has been flagged as 'age restricted'. Either you share your personal ID documents with Google or you won't be able to watch the movie. Most people haven't done that, so the audience will be severely limited.
-
Eclectic at 20:45 PM on 20 April 2021Why scientists shouldn't heed calls to 'stay in our lane'
Sad for Ben Santer to lose a friend to "trumpism".
I have lost a cousin who has cut himself off from his siblings & extended family ~ in part because Global Warming is a Hoax. Add some conspiracy ideation and a "suspicious mind" about the (presumed) nefarious intent of his siblings/cousins. His adult children try to keep their heads down and wait for it all to pass (but they don't seem hopeful).
He is not insane in the strict medico-legal sense, but IMO he is intellectually insane. Nor do I think he has an organic brain dysfunction and/or early dementia, as far as I can tell. But judging by the shenanigans on the internet (especially the echochamber of GreenHouse denialism at WattsUpWithThat ) his is not a wildly uncommon case. Additionally, there must be millions who go along for the ride, as a matter of identity politics.
Fortunately, I rarely encounter flagrant denialists in everyday real life. But obviously they exist, even in the higher echelons of government.
The real question is :- Which way is the tide running? And are politicians starting to see the light . . . or are they merely responding to increased public & media pressure, and are simply dissembling while hoping they're dealing with a transient wave of publicity.
From what I've seen during the past 5 months [ i.e. since mid-November 2020] , the denizens of WUWT are a bit glum, but consider themselves to be bravely holding out against all this unscientific AGW nonsense (and its underlying Marxist World Revolutionary push). Bravely holding out until the public is brought to its senses by sky-rocketing electricity prices and the inevitable arrival of decades of drastic Global Cooling. Due soon.
-
nigelj at 12:32 PM on 20 April 2021'Disinformation ecosystem' - in broader context beyond climate
What a depressing parade of denialists, opportunists, narcissists, and conspiracy theorists. You cannot appease these people or convince them with facts. Tell them they are idiots and that they are spreading ignorance. Its about the only language they will understand.
-
nigelj at 11:54 AM on 20 April 2021Wind and solar energy are job creators. Which states are taking advantage?
We dont have an automated economy, so we need to create jobs so people can build the automated ecomomy. And to build the power sources that fuel the automated economy (renewables). You cant put the cart before the horse.
However the completely automated economy is probably a fantasy. I doubt the world has enough material resources for millions, perhaps billions of robots etcetera because that is what you are talking about. The services sector will still employ quite a lot of people.
-
David-acct at 10:59 AM on 20 April 2021Wind and solar energy are job creators. Which states are taking advantage?
Withut critisizing Ig guy above, - The linked article provides excellent information about the number of jobs in each state by source of electric generation. Below are some pertinent data from the Texas and California which have some of the largest penetration of renewables in their electric generation mix.
The electric generation mix in Texas is a approx 25% wind and approx 45% from natural gas. The attached link cited in this article shows the employment numbers are approx 25,500 for wind generation and approx 7,900 for jobs in electrical generation from natural gas. that equates to approx 5 jobs in wind generation to produce the same amount of electricity from natural gas.
The same report cited in this article shows jobs in the solar sector is approx 124,000 of which 50,500 is in solar construction leaving approx 74,000 for electric generation from solar, where as 20,500 jobs are in the natural gas electric generation sector. The electric generation mix in California is approx 15% while electric generation from natural gas is approx 34%. That equates to approx 9 jobs in solar to produce the same amount of electricity from natural gas.
https://www.usenergyjobs.org/2020-state-reportswww.usenergyjobs.org/2020-state-reports
-
michael sweet at 00:44 AM on 20 April 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
John O'Neill:
According to this World Nuclear News article from September 2020, the Terrapower sodium cooled reactor you refer to has not been submitted for certification. They hope to start commercialization by the end of the decade. Likewise Canadian Terrestial Energy is a start up with a paper design and little else.
Can you provide references that support your claim these reactors are more than paper designs?
The storage of the Terrapower reactor would only raise output less than 50% for 5 1/2 hours. That doesn't sound like cheap storage to me. Both these designs have signficant problems to deal with for example: liquid sodium reactors have chronic sodium fires and molten salt reactors have no materials to manufacture valves.
Since nuclear power plants have to be run full out all the time to be economic they do not fit into a renewable system. The claim that with storage the reactors fit well with wind is simply propaganda from the industry. In addition, they are too expensive to build and run and take too long to build. Even the builders of the reactors you mention do not expect their designs to be buildable before 2030 best case. We need to change over to renewable energy before those reactors will be ready.
When a nuclear power plant is shut down it takes time to build replacement renewable energy. If we really try to build out wind and solar there will be a substantial decrease in carbon emissions in a short period of time. As more and more renewable energy is built out emissions have already started to decrease.
-
Bob Loblaw at 23:25 PM on 19 April 2021Wind and solar energy are job creators. Which states are taking advantage?
...and yet the people arguing against taking action on climate, or other environmental issues, keep using the excuse that the proposed actions are "job killers".
And the people employed in the fossil fuel industry worry about losing their jobs and being unable to buy the essentials of life. Being able to provide them with alternative jobs is a benefit, not a cost.
Automated production isn't free - it takes huge amounts of capital investment. The idea that automation will make stuff for free is a pipe dream.
-
Ignorant Guy at 12:14 PM on 19 April 2021Wind and solar energy are job creators. Which states are taking advantage?
Very often I see the argument that something is good because it creates job. That is a mistake. Work is not an asset, it's a cost. Imagine we could produce all goods and services we need without any person doing any work because exactly all production was automated. Then all goods and services would be free. On the other hand, imagine that some sector, e g renewable energy production (or fizzy drinks), would create an enormous amount of jobs, say 8 billion new jobs. Then, unless the rest of the production was automated, everyone would be busy producing renewable energy (or fizzy drinks) and nothing at all except renewable energy (or fizzy drinks) would be produced. Work is a cost because work is the price we pay to keep the production going. It's not work that is an asset but labour. But labour is an asset only as long as work needs to be done.
-
TVC15 at 03:37 AM on 19 April 2021Explainer: The polar vortex, climate change and the ‘Beast from the East’
As more and more researchers look at the effects of the weakening polar vortex, we are now starting to see these types of cold snaps in TX.
More climate extremes ahead for Galveston County, experts agreeModerator Response:[BW] Corrected the broken link
-
Tom Dayton at 23:03 PM on 17 April 2021The choice is clear: Fair climate policy or no climate policy
Eggsasperated: You are incorrect. Please learn the difference in Meaning of those two words.
-
Eclectic at 22:55 PM on 17 April 2021The choice is clear: Fair climate policy or no climate policy
Eggsasperated @4 ,
Should we discriminate against certain people, such as criminals?
Is "discrimination" automatically a bad thing? Are you discriminating against discrimination? ;-)
Equity - like probity or disinterested - is one of those underused words. And critical thinking is aided by usage of precise words, in the handling of concepts. In a sloppy way, words are too often used as slogans. Phrases, too, can suffer that fate ~ "The Climate Is Always Changing" is an example of a slogan used to short-circuit real meaning.
Yes, the word equality also is too often used as an unthinking slogan. Equity is a rather legalistic word ~ but it deserves prominence when we consider the world's problems.
Prev 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 Next
