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michael sweet at 22:06 PM on 6 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
jzk, It is not a fair statement to suggest that Hansen is "outside the consensus". Hansen suggests that a runaway greenhouse is possible on Earth. Most of what I have seen disagrees with Hansen, see Tom's links above, but that does not mean Hansen is wrong. There does not appear to be a strong consensus on this item. Most scientists currently focus on the near term, say the next 200 years. After that there is less research. Hansen is on one extreme but that does not qualify as "outside the consensus" Re Hansen's discussion of 6C per doubling of CO2. This is the long term, not the short term sensitivity. Hansen agrees with the consensus that the Charney sensitivity is around 3C per doubling. This is the short term sensitivity. Long term, as the ice sheets melt, scientists agree that the sensitivity is greater. Hansen estimates the long term sensitivity, including albedo changes is double the Charney sensitivity. I have not seen comparable estimates from other scientists. Since scientists agree the long term sensitivity is higher than the Charney sensitivity Hansen is firmly in the consensus here. Hansen takes the view that we are responsible for our long term consequences, not just the problems predicted for the next 90 years. Do you care about the world your descendants will have to live in in 500 years? Most deniers do not even care about their children. Go to RealClimate and read their analysis of the temperature predictions Hansen made in 1981. He was 30% lower than actual increases that have been measured. Perhaps he is low here again. The main stream media gives big press to non-scientists and deniers. Hansen is closer to the consensus than Lindzen is. Uncertainty cuts both ways. Hansen's fear of runaway warming may be right, he has a long record of being correct in the past. -
Tom Curtis at 22:02 PM on 6 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
jzk @20, Hansen does not discuss the runaway greenhouse effect in the TED video which this post is about. Therefore discussion of it is off topic on this thread, and your attempts to suggest that because John Russell (@12) agrees with what Hansen says on that video he is therefore committed to agreeing with anything Hansen has said anywhere are trolling, pure and simple. However, for the record, let me state that: 1) You are misrepresenting Hansen in that he clearly indicates that the prospect of oceans boiling only follows "in the long run" and "over centuries" of continuing high emission rates (1:15 fwd on the video to which you linked). Thus it is clearly not an imminent prospect, and is only achievable (on his opinion) by a determined, suicidal continuation of BAU as temperatures rise beyond Eocene levels. Make no mistake that such a continuation would be suicidal. Hansen is probably wrong about runaway greenhouse effect, but if we push tropical sea surface temperatures above 50 degrees C, the fact that the oceans aren't boiling will be purely academic in terms of our prospects of long term survival. 2) When NASA planned the grand tour of Voyegers 1 and 2, they used a model. That model was not evidence, but neither was it guess work. It was the prediction of a well confirmed theory. Climate models are also the predictions of well confirmed theories. Because of the complexity of the situation being modeled, they cannot be solved algebraicly, but instead must be solved numerically using approximations for some factors. That introduces uncertainty, but does not change the results into simple guess work. When you cavalierly dismiss model outcomes, you are in effect insisting that a number of well confirmed empirical theories are false. 3) Hansen's view is that the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.8 C per doubling of CO2. The equilibrium climate sensitivity does not include slow feed backs such as the change in albedo due to the melting of ice sheets. Hansen considers the Earth Climate Sensitivity, ie, the sensitivity including all feed backs to be around 6 degrees C. There is no contradiction between that position and that of the IPCC, and indeed, that result has been confirmed from observations by Dana Royer and his associates. 4) Hansen's position on runaway feed backs is not the consensus position. The consensus position in science is not a mandated position required as a condition of doing science, but a common position arrived at by each scientists independent assessment of the evidence. It is therefore no surprise that on some issues there is disagreement. Finally, as noted this discussion is of topic. Therefore if you care to respond, would you please do so in threads on which the response is on topic. For discussion of the the runaway greenhouse effect, I suggest the comments on the article by Chris Colose linked at 17 above. If you comments are about Hansen's views on the runaway greenhouse effect, he has no official spokesperson here so take it up with Hansen. -
chriskoz at 21:57 PM on 6 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 2)
Thanks Dana for nice rebuttal of new and old Monckton myths. However, regarding this comment of yours: To his credit, [...] Monckton started out his presentation by establishing that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and the human-caused atmospheric CO2 increase has caused some warming over the past century I respectfully disagree, as follows. Not so long ago, in the middle of 2011, while touring Australia, Monckton was describing CO2 as "colourless trace gas which is food for plants". Why did he change this goalpost of his teachings so abruptly in last few months? Because he came to accept & appreciate GH effect of CO2, as your comment would suggest? I don't think so. We learned many times how he changes his goalpost on this site. Peter Sinclair calls it "Monckton maneuvres". We learned that Monckton does not care about the truthfulness or informative value of his teachings, he just cares about spreading confusion; the ridiculous nonsense of the graphic in slide 3 of his presentation is the best example. We've seen goalpost shifts in many denialist teachings. And the reason is that old myths eventually become so thoroughly debunked that they are not effective effective anymore as disinformation campagin. Then it's time to shift to other myths. The word of appology or explanation about the "change of mind" is rarely uttered. Monckton is a typical representative of such strategy. Can we assume that Monckton is accepting the fact about CO2 at stake in good faith, so as to enter a more reasonable dialog with those remaining 5 representatives who still listen to him? I still don't think so. The best characterisation of Monckton's modus operandi was given by Tom Curtis here". Please note that Monckton's description of ABC as "fasist organisation" still stands. Therefore, based on the above, I conclude Monckton's latest acceptance of CO2 as a greenhouse gas is just a big goalpost shift designed to help his evil campaign going and does not deserve any credit. -
Lionel A at 21:00 PM on 6 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 2)
Bob @ #12'...they alter the facts to fit their views ... which can be very uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering.'
But as the great Richard Feynman once remarked (my emphasis), 'For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.' What Do You Care What Other People Think, Mr Feynman Goes to Washington, Investigating the Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster, Appendix F, Conclusions. Feymnan's Challenger investigation methodology is a model of facing physical reality with its exposure of wishful thinking and humbug. If Feynam were still with us, and he is greatly missed, I think he would be very agitated about the antics of a certain other Richard. Quoting Wiki is not always a good thing but there are many lessons on this page of Feynman quotes . -
jzk at 20:16 PM on 6 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
Tom @18, The talk starts out "what would happen if emissions continue to grow?" (-snip-) So is it then, a fair statement to say that Hansen's views are "outside the consensus?"Moderator Response:[DB] As noted earlier, and as specifically pointed out to you by Tom Curtis below, Hansen does not discuss the runaway greenhouse effect in the video linked in the OP. Your intransigent insistence that he did is therefore utter, willful falsehood.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit off-topic posts and make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
Fabricated quote and trolling statements snipped.
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Jen at 20:02 PM on 6 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 2)
"Have we used the word "absurd" too many times already?" Not at all! But for a change, you could substitute 'ridiculous' - subject to ridicule - which seems very apt with regard to many of Monckton's fantasies! -
scaddenp at 19:54 PM on 6 April 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #13
And if carbon tax was a pigovian tax, how would that doom the planet exactly? Perhaps you might like to add your thoughts to this thread. I am sure you would not regard killing subsidies on fossil fuels as socialism. How about a simple ban on new coal-fired generation and letting the market figure out the best alternative? Is that socialism? -
Richard D at 19:51 PM on 6 April 2012Submerged Forests off the coast of Wales: a Climate Change Snapshot
interesting article, thanks -
Riccardo at 18:50 PM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
Adding my two cents to what John Russell and Bernard J. already said, the distribution of human population versus temperature or, better, heat index shows a long tail toward colder temperatures but a sharp cut off at high temperatures. A temperature increase of just few degrees is enough to force milions of people to move and abandon large swats of land. Adaptation is not an option in such cases. We're risking a 21st century gold rush but there's no gold anywere. -
BC at 17:03 PM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
I also enjoyed the article thanks. James Hanson has a similar discussion in his book "Storms of My Grandchildren", in Chapter 8 'Target Carbon Dioxide: Where Should Humanity Aim'. Some interesting points - . He has a good discussion on how the temperature curve is derived and does an analysis of temperature changes Vs forcings from CO2 and ice albedo changes. His starting point in this analysis was 50mya with the temp 14 and CO2 at 1400 with uncertainty of 500. . He advised Bill McKibben to set the CO2 target at 350 based on the analysis of this period. One factor was that at 34mya when Antarctica became cold enough to harbor an ice sheet the estimated CO2 was 450 with uncertainty of 100. 'This has a clear, strong implication for what constitutes a dangerous level of atmospheric carbon dioxide' . On ocean currents he mentions that 55mya at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) there was a dramatic change in ocean circulation indicating that the main location where dense surface water sank to the ocean bottom shifted from Antarctica to middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere. It is likely that this warmer water instigated the melting of methane hydrates -
Bernard J. at 16:36 PM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
John Russell pre-empted me at #3, but it's worth repeating... Mammals are not adapted to temperatures significantly higher than those of the current 'ice age'. We just aren't. In fact one reason mammality was able to evolve was because of the moderate temperatures of 'ice ages'. Any warmer, and the efficiency of the suite of counter-balancing thermoregulation adaptations starts to break down. Natural deselection... It's 'simple' thermodynamics. That the Denialati imagine that an Eocene-like climate is lovely and balmy and desirable simply shows the depth of their ignorance of mammalian physiology.Of course, the climate will not fully respond to this sudden shock immediately; there is inertia in the system, fortunately. It will take many hundreds of years for the oceans to heat up and many thousands for the ice caps to melt completely.
I have one small philosophical nit-pick - it might not be "fortunate" that there is an inertia in the global climatic system. Had it been that the scale of the period of change was closer to the lifetime of a human, there might actually be more inclination to address the problem. As it is our species put its collective head in the sand, and aided and abetted by our knee-jerk response to an economic system that also ignored thermodynamics, we're already committed to a change that will likely see a human-friendly ecosystem disappear in the centuries ahead. Fortunate for us, perhaps, but not for our decendants. I've said it previously but I'll indulge again - if our decendants could manage to conquer time travel, or to reanimate the dead, they'd be post haste hunting our generation down and kicking our arses for what we're doing currently to the planet. -
jyyh at 15:26 PM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
The fig.2 in Micheels & al. presents a vegetation proxy of miocene times and that looks like being a much wetter period than now for some large areas. It's a preprint, and I do not know if the paper has been published yet, anyway it refers to many earlier discussions on this. Could be interesting for readers to see. -
scaddenp at 14:32 PM on 6 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
Thanks Tom, Chris concludes with: " it's worth mentioning that it is virtually impossible to trigger a true runaway greenhouse in the modern day by any practical means, at least in the sense that planetary scientists use the word to describe the loss of any liquid water on a planet." Hansen is saying that with all carbon burnt and presumably with rapid clathrate melt to CH4 not CO2, then it is possible to boil the ocean. While sobering if true, I would be fairly sure his motivation are mostly based on the very considerable damage that would result from far less CO2. I think we should be mostly worrying about the damage from burning the available economic coal. -
Tom Curtis at 14:09 PM on 6 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
I should probably add, the theory is that there is an upper limit on the greenhouse effect which represents the effect of an atmosphere with the maximum saturation with H2O. If the outgoing longwave radiation for a fully saturated atmosphere is greater than the incoming solar energy, in the Earth's case 255 W/m^2 on current albedo, then temperatures will stabilize before full saturation is reached, and hence before the oceans boil away. As it happens, the outgoing limit is significantly greater than 255 W/m^2. Nakajima et al calculated an upper limit of 385 W/m^2, which is approximately 40 W/m^2 higher than the Earth would recieve with an albedo of 0, an unlikely condition with a water saturated atmosphere to say the least. There is some doubt as to the upper limit which must be calculated using models, but it is sufficiently high that it is unlikely that the Earth could reach a runaway greenhouse effect on current solar activity. Of course, if models are as unreliable as is suggested by deniers, then we can have no confidence that a runaway greenhouse effect is impossible. The price of denying science is uncertainty, and that price is paid logically by considering even the most extreme possibilities as on the cards if we continue the grand experiment with the atmosphere. Of course, that would require consistency from the deniers, which is too much to ask. -
Tom Curtis at 13:59 PM on 6 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
scaddenp @16: A Study on the “Runaway Greenhouse Effect” with a One-Dimensional Radiative–Convective Equilibrium Model, by Nakajima, Hayashi, and Abe. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1992. And here is a popular explanation by Chris Colose. -
evolutionarymicrobiologist at 13:07 PM on 6 April 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #13
I think this explains the problem to a tee. The REAL problem isn't that people are stupid, but that political agenda takes over. (-snip-), instead of just generating an alternative energy (which could have been done by now), proves my point as much as the right pretending that nothing is happening and looking for loopholes to ignore the science. I personally believe it will spell doom for our planet if we make carbon tax 1/5 or more of total government revenue. Then they will never have an incentive to find alternative energies.Moderator Response: [DB] Please refrain from making ideological statements (snipped) per the Comments Policy. -
Bob Loblaw at 12:57 PM on 6 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 2)
The reference to Dr. Who reminded me of this old fortune quote I saved many moons ago:The very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common. Instead of altering their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views ... which can be very uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering. -- Doctor Who, "Face of Evil"
I hope Monckton never gets to be powerful. -
scaddenp at 10:49 AM on 6 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
Can anyone point me to any actual paper on whether we can get runaway greenhouse if used all the carbon? I'd like to see the math. -
actually thoughtful at 08:06 AM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
Andy S - great article. I like this style of looking at the world, rather than the relentless focus on what incorrect thing so-and-so said (both are necessary). Very thought provoking. 200,000 times the natural rate - that is a number I will weave into "discussions" with deniers. -
newcrusader at 04:42 AM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
I am fascinated by earths past climate. And this was excellent. There was something 41 million years ago called the Middle Eocene Climate Optimum Some 40 million years ago, the world experienced an extreme spike in global warming. The heat was so intense that deep sea temperatures rose by about 4 degrees Celsius. This enigmatic sultry period, known as the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO), marked a 400,000-year-long heat wave in the midst of a long era of global cooling. -
Andy Skuce at 04:30 AM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
jyyh: Thank you. No, I don't know enough about palaeo-oceanography to answer your question. Perhaps other readers do. -
John Russell at 04:01 AM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
Good article. Of course as part of our irreversible experiment to recreate the Eocene we need to start selectively breeding all current mammals to be the size of small rodents -- oh, and that includes ourselves. It seems only small mammals can handle the heat. Reptiles on the other hand... Anyone know of any small rocks to hide under? -
JMurphy at 03:31 AM on 6 April 2012It's not bad
Agreed, and I look forward to any further information you may be able to obtain, particularly from Barnett. -
keithpickering at 03:16 AM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
One of the most interesting (and important) posts I've read here. Many thanks. -
jyyh at 03:10 AM on 6 April 2012Eocene Park: our experiment to recreate the atmosphere of an ancient hothouse climate
Thanks, Andy. two remarks: At least the locations of continents are different today. It may take a little more rise in the concentration to melt the (whole) Antarctic ice sheet (however long it'll take). Do you know are there much differences in north Atlantic currents if one compares early Miocene (when there was a Panama Strait instead of a Channel)and Pleistocene/start of the Anthropocene? One would like to think the closing of that strait lead to cooler temps in the Arctic so it might be the concentration to melt GIS would also be higher than the last time. But by how much, I can't say. Might be even lower if the tropical Atlantic heats up by some mechanism induced by shifting atmopheric phenomena. -
mohyla103 at 02:18 AM on 6 April 2012It's not bad
"Even if that means accepting 49.1% as meaning the same as "as much as 50%", so be it." I can accept that, too, of course. The point was the missing word "snow". You raise an excellent point, though, sources within sources. As that was original research and measurement data being reported, and there was no discussion about snow vs. glacial melt, I hadn't thought of checking further sources regarding the snow vs. glacial melt amounts, but perhaps it is in there somewhere. Then again, probably not or it would have been discussed in the original paper. I will try digging deeper into the other sources and will indeed contact Barnett if still nothing turns up to support his statement. I don't expect an answer but as you say, I've got nothing to lose. Thanks for the discussion. I believe we've come as far as we can on this one. -
dana1981 at 01:18 AM on 6 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 2)
cc @7 - very nice, thanks. John Russell @9 - Monckton also apparently has time to write posts defending his nonsense California claims on WUWT (see here). -
Dikran Marsupial at 01:15 AM on 6 April 2012Murry Salby finds CO2 rise is natural
@tompinlb That the rise in atmospheric CO2 is purely anthropogenic is easily established with a high degree of certainty. In order to put an end to this common climate myth, I wrote a paper on the subject, read about it here. I sent a pre-print of the paper to Prof. Salby, but I didn't receive a reply. Sadly Prof. Salby is simply incorrect on this one, and I strongly suspect that the journal paper he referred to in hs talk may have been withdrawn. I would be happy to go through the mass balance argument with you, it really is surprisingly very simple. -
jzk at 21:19 PM on 5 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
Daniel @14, Notice that Hansen begins his talk with "if we allow emissions to continue at a high rate..." Then he gets to talking about losing every species on Earth, and boiling the Oceans. Since all signs point to emissions rates increasing from where they are now (China and India), then according to Hansen these outcomes are real possibilities. This thread is entitled "James Hansen's motivation" and I was responding to a post that stated "I accept all that Hansen says." So how could my post possibly be off topic?Moderator Response:[DB] "So how could my post possibly be off topic?"
Again, reading my comment it is clear that I was referring to the individual factors Hansen discusses, like a methane/clathrate release. Those are best discussed further on individual threads devoted to them (Search function). Please desist in looking to quote-mine and take things out of context.
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Daniel Bailey at 21:14 PM on 5 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
Jzk, the operative word Hansen uses is "can" (and please refer to the video in its entirety for context, not a solitary quote-mine). This is predicated on many variables also occurring, like first burning all the coal and then exploiting all the tar sands and shale oil extraction technologies and a methane/clathrate permafrost release. Note that the likelihood of this last is sharply confirmed here. Further discussion of those factors belongs on one of the many more relevant threads devoted to those topics, rather than this one. -
jzk at 20:58 PM on 5 April 2012James Hansen's Motivation
John @12, "I accept all that Hansen says." How about when he says that our Oceans will begin to boil? "you can get to a situation where, it just, the Oceans will begin to boil..." http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1uxfiuKB_R8#! @2:05. -
Lionel A at 20:37 PM on 5 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 2)
some impressive pseudo-science babble here; - link CORRECTED I note that Motl has joined in too which demonstrates that even very clever people can be 'not even wrong'. -
John Russell at 19:44 PM on 5 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 2)
Monckton appeared overnight with some impressive pseudo-science babble here; if anyone wants to take him on. As someone in the thread says: he's no time to answer Potholer but he's got time to comment there. -
John Russell at 18:22 PM on 5 April 2012Lindzen's London Illusions
Comment on the 5 scientists' critique on Carbon Brief, which seems to have attracted some major league contrarians in defence of Lindzen -- including Monckton. -
citizenschallenge at 15:21 PM on 5 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 2)
boy that sounds like a dumb question. excuse me it's late, just that it's a new feature... I think. -
citizenschallenge at 15:19 PM on 5 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 2)
Excellent Post. Considering that turkey lord has been causing me heartburn for a long time: http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2010/08/unauthorized-sorting-of-lord-chris.html I appreciate Dana's point by point take-down. So much so that I've added it to my collection. Dana, John that "copy embed code" is a kick! Check out what I did with it: http://citizenschallenge.blogspot.com/2012/04/lord-chris-monckton-update-april-2012.html Hope you like it. cheers ~ ~ ~ Incidentally, where could learn more about that "copy embed code" thing? What it's about, what to do with? -
dana1981 at 14:07 PM on 5 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 1)
Oh geez, I didn't notice the V&T estimate is $182 billion annually. What a freaking joke. I just can't believe anyone takes this nonsense seriously. But yes, as I recall Monckton did say $450 billion by 2020 (which is 8 years, not 10). -
scaddenp at 13:06 PM on 5 April 2012Murry Salby finds CO2 rise is natural
tompinlb - also are you aware that a very rough "rock weathering thermostat" is postulated operating in geological time scales. CO2 absorption by ocean is limited by Ca ion release. As temperatures go up, so does weathering rate, eventually pulling CO2 from atmosphere and cooling temperatures. More detail here. -
Bernard J. at 12:50 PM on 5 April 2012Why David Archibald is wrong about solar cycles driving sea levels (Part 1)
Bill and jmsully. Yes, amusing all 'round... It was revealing to see how Archibald dropped the ball once someone other than the cheer-squad started to ask some questions. I had plenty more to put to him, but the closing of the WWWT thread put paid to that, and Alex's post here (and, I anticipate, his next one in the series) has more than taken much of the wind from my sails. I am still curious though to have answers to my queries over there, so if anyone ever happens to come across Archibald, please ask him to address the specifics of the (at least) 20 questions. He appears to have made many methodological blunders quite separate from his mangling of physics, and if he intends to stand by that WWWT post as a 'credible' effort he must clarify the points that were raised. -
DSL at 12:43 PM on 5 April 2012Murry Salby finds CO2 rise is natural
tompinlb, did you read the article? Do you understand the mass balance argument? The natural world must achieve a rough equilibrium over geologic time scales, or else CO2 would disappear or supersaturate the atmosphere. The geologic record shows the development of the carbon equilibrium, and it has been in rough balance during most of the course of the latest interglacial. Suddenly, atmospheric carbon rockets upward. It's just coincident with massive human industrialization? Uhhhh . . . No. Humans have been dumping CO2 into the atmosphere faster than the historically developed (and developing) natural cycle can take it out. Eventually, there will be another point of rough equilibrium. Eventually. The isotope bit is just another line of evidence. -
Tom Curtis at 12:40 PM on 5 April 2012Murry Salby finds CO2 rise is natural
tompinlb @1: 1) CO2 concentrations over the holocene show little variation prior to the industrial era showing that the net natural CO2 flux is close to zero. Even the small 0.003 ppmv flux over the 7000 years prior to the industrial revolution is probably due to land use changes, partly from the desertification of the Sahara, but primarily due to human agriculture, particularly the cultivation of rice. The supposition that natural fluxes should increase 150 fold (conservatively estimated) by stange coincidence at exactly the time when humans started burning fossil fuels at a rate approximately double that which is required to explain the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere strains credulity, both in requiring human emissions to magically not effect atmospheric concentrations, and by requiring the vastly larger natural emissions from an undiscoverable source to magically coincide with the curiously ineffective human emissions.
So, to explain it for you, long term means over the period of the Holocene.
2) Not only do you require your magical natural source to have a peculiar sensitivity to the onset of industrialization, it must also be an aquatic organic source. Organic because only organic sources have the right C12/C13 ratio. Aquatic because only ocean sources and fossil fuels would deplete C14 ratios (as occurred prior to the onset of atmospheric nuclear explosions), and also because land vegetation is known to be increasing in mass. This depletion of organic matter in the ocean has to march in lock step with industrial emissions which, of course mysteriously continue to vanish without a trace.
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jmsully at 12:11 PM on 5 April 2012Why David Archibald is wrong about solar cycles driving sea levels (Part 1)
Bernard J., I did like the last comment in that thread: it must be the great and powerful PDO! -
tompinlb at 11:36 AM on 5 April 2012Murry Salby finds CO2 rise is natural
What is the basis for your statement that the natural flux of CO2 "balances out in the long term?" What do you mean by long term, and what evidence do you have for this assertion? In What the science says, you state that multiple lines of evidence make it very clear that the rise in co2 is due to human emissions. If you are basing this on analysis of c12/c13 isotope ratios! This is precisely one of the arguments that Salby takes apart. You do not address Salby's argument, but instead appear to appeal to authority. -
actually thoughtful at 10:38 AM on 5 April 2012Why David Archibald is wrong about solar cycles driving sea levels (Part 1)
MuonCounter - that is what I ask the deniers every day where is the cooling! Resounding silence is the answer. -
Tom Curtis at 10:34 AM on 5 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 1)
dana1981 @24, being fair to Monckton he now claims that the figure he gives is for the losses over a decade, and that he obtained the figure by multiplying the annual losses a estimated by Varshney & Tootelian, 2012 by 2.5, which would indeed by a conservative assumption based on a flawed study. There is a reasonable question as to whether he made it clear that he was discussing decadal costs at the state legislature. More disturbing to my mind is his estimate of the benefits of the carbon tax. He claims to use a cost of 1.5% of GDP in 2100 for the harm from global warming. Purportedly this is a generous assumption, based on the Stern Report. In fact, however, the Stern Report estimates a cost of 5% of GDP, "each and every year, now and forever" which is reducible to 1% per annum by mitigation. So Monckton understates the costs of unmitigated climate change over the coming century by a factor of 240. A simple calculation shows that, on the simplifying assumption that California's carbon intensity equals the world average, and using the Stern Report figures, California's mitigation efforts will save it 800 billion in costs over 10 years. (I have also assumed that growth in GDP will be the inverse of the discount rate, ie, a discount rate equal to the pure rate of investment in California.) Finally, Monckton refers to California's "frankly Marxist legislature". Anybody who can refer to any legislature as Marxist shows that their words are so divorced from reality, whether by intent or insanity, as to be worthless. -
bill4344 at 10:22 AM on 5 April 2012Why David Archibald is wrong about solar cycles driving sea levels (Part 1)
Bernard J @11 That's a great exchange! I must say I think there's a very strong degree of causation here indeed; between your asking very detailed and uncomfortable questions, David Archibald's suddenly discovering he left the gas on, and dear old Anthony equally suddenly closing the thread. I think it's fair to say that the pristine beauty of certain ideas is best preserved from searing exposure to harsh realities... -
dana1981 at 09:22 AM on 5 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 1)
To be clear here - I discussed why Monckton's economic analysis was wrong with Anthony Watts via email and offered him a version of the above post for WUWT. Not only did Watts decline to publish "the other side" (i.e. reality), but now he goes as far as to give Monckton a platform to further advertise his trumped-up nonsense economic alarmism, which Watts knows very well is wrong. In short, Watts publishes Monckton's nonsense, I inform Watts exactly why it's nonsense, and then Watts proceeds to publish a second Monckton post saying his nonsense was actually too conservative. So much for skepticism on WUWT. -
dana1981 at 09:15 AM on 5 April 2012Monckton Misleads California Lawmakers - Now It's Personal (Part 1)
Unbelievable - Monckton has doubled-down on this nonsense (on WUWT, naturally), claiming his $450 billion figure is an underestimate. His arguments, as usual, make no sense whatsoever. He basically argues that since he multiplied the trumped-up V&T figure by an arbitrary factor of 2.5 instead of an arbitrary factor of 10, he's being conservative! And WUWT slips another step further into lunacy. -
JMurphy at 05:43 AM on 5 April 2012New research from last week 13/2012
I'm sure these papers will appear here next week : How carbon dioxide melted the world Global data set shows that rising greenhouse-gas levels drove the end of the last ice age Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation -
heijdensejan at 04:43 AM on 5 April 2012Yes Happer and Spencer, Global Warming Continues
no it is still there but only on WUWT..... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/04/roy-spencers-uah-report-for-march/#comments
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