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Comments 63451 to 63500:

63451. Brandon Shollenberger at 19:52 PM on 22 February 2012
       Book review of Michael Mann's The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
       les #63, Mann does not say "tree ring data could dominate the analysis if he hadn't actually done the PC analysis correctly." He says that tree ring "data appeared to be of critical importance in establishing the reliability of the reconstruction" in the tests he did on his own data, with his own methodology. That directly contradicts what his paper had said: On the other hand, the long-term trend in NH is relatively robust to the inclusion of dendroclimatic indicators in the network If you think I've misread anything, I'd be happy to discuss it. However, please remember I've quoted, quite extensively, to support my commentary. Given that, it would be appropriate to refer to the quotes I provide rather than your personal paraphrase of what the book says.
63452. Philippe Chantreau at 19:37 PM on 22 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       Agriculture, fisheries and forestry are endeavors closely related to every day needs of human existence, and directly relevant to many types of commodities exchanged on markets. There is no such thing as an AGW industry. You might as well say that there is a gravity industry or an evolution industry. That is strecthcing the meaning attached to any piece of scientific knowledge beyond what's meaningful. Let's not go there.
63453. Philippe Chantreau at 19:31 PM on 22 February 2012
       Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
       Reality and Monckton reside in 2 different worlds that intersect only occasionally, causing the latter to devise all manners of defense mechanisms against the revelations that suddenly hit him on these occasions. I would not be too worried about him not being able to access any piece of reality, I'm sure he carefully avoids such voluntary encounters, since dealing with the inevitable ones is enough work already...
63454. Ken Lambert at 19:27 PM on 22 February 2012
       Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
       KR #69 We are discussing the cessation of any TOA imbalance (see #63 where this started) - "Yes transient *temperature* response - not energy gain." Without an imbalance - existing heat will flow around the system creating temperature and phase changes - but *not* a global temperature increase or decrease in the Earth system. "There are no phase changes, no temperature changes, without energy changes." Quite right - the issue is whether or not there are global increases or decreases - not 'changes' shunting around existing heat energy within the Earth system.
63455. Tom Curtis at 18:55 PM on 22 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Bernard J. @11, If you are going to round to a single digit than 2 is certainly better than 1 for total warming. However, it appears Myers has calculated the radiative forcing of 800 ppmv relative to 390 pppmv, which is 3.84 W/m^2 equating to 1.04 degree C of warming if the climate sensitivity per doubling of CO2 is 1 degree C. What is neglected in his calculation is that the Earth is not in radiative equilibrium, so he has to add on to that figure the warming which is currently in the pipeline. Regardless, suggesting the the climate sensitivity is only 1 degree C per doubling is just absurd. As can be seen from this figure derived from Knutti and Hegerl,the probability that the climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 is 1 degree C is indistinguishable from zero (see the combined evdence).
63456. Bernard J. at 18:39 PM on 22 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Tom. I should probably have been more explicit in my posts at #7, and originally at #6. My original rounding was to 2, although I mistyped "3" in my post at #6. The actual figure I calculated for an increase in temperature resulting from an increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration from 280 ppm to 800 ppm, assuming a sensitivity of 1 degree celcius per doubling of CO₂, was 1.51 degrees celcius over pre-Industrial levels. The reason I rounded to 2 was because Myers said:

       But even if we were to hit a relatively pessimistic level of 800ppm by the end of the century, this would, by the numbers above, imply a warming of about one degree.

       By using the phrase "about one degree" Myers was trying to make the value sound insignificant,and possibly even less than one degree. I was simply pointing out that a better 'approximation' would have been "almost 2 degrees", as I used, which rounds to the same number of significant figures but which is essentialy double (in the minds of those reading) the value with which Myers tried to trick his readers. Had I more time when I typed the earlier posts I would have tried to explain it a little more, but I was about to head out for a meeting and I probably rushed the explanation more than I should have.
63457. Rob Painting at 18:39 PM on 22 February 2012
       Search For 'Missing Heat' Confirms More Global Warming 'In The Pipeline'
       skept.fr @ 38 - I wouldn't say it's strictly accurate to say the imbalance is permanent, it will eventually be restored once fossil fuels run out. I think you pretty much have it, but caution that the net climate forcing, that is the total forcing including greenhouse gases, aerosols, and the solar cycle, is not a monotonically increasing trend. The figure below, is what Hansen (2011) has calculated. Note that the sharp dips are due to large volcanic eruptions close to the equator (they get entrained into the powerful rising motion at the equator and get spread out in the upper atmosphere):
63458. macoles at 18:07 PM on 22 February 2012
       Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
       If we want even a remote chance that Monckton will read the rebuttal "Ben Santer changed the 1995 IPCC report", then we best fix the link :)
63459. Michael of Brisbane at 17:49 PM on 22 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       Good point CraigR. John, I wasn't saying anything about the Department of Climate Change being an industry in itself. But to use your example of The Dept of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry, that is a department that is involved in an industry or industries isn't it? Do you accept that the Department of Health is involved in the Medical industry? Well, by the same token, The Dept of Climate Change is involved in the AGW "Industry". Do you accept that?
63460. owl905 at 17:43 PM on 22 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Added to Tom Curtis @8 - if the real world only reacted 1dC of warming to 2xCO2e, the glacial to interglacial climate transition is inexplicable. Milankovich cycles give it the kickstart, but takeoff co-incides with GHG increases, and the total rise of 7dC is a mismatch to the ~50% rise in GHGs.
63461. barry1487 at 16:59 PM on 22 February 2012
       Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
       It is no easy thing to unpack the kind of layered distortions Monckton lays on without making the rebuttal convoluted, and to make the text easy to read and follow. This post succeeds admirably. Great job.
63462. jg at 16:25 PM on 22 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Byron: I apologize. I should have included the temperature unit in the graphs. I'll correct this. I too have read 5-8 deg C change between glacial and interglacials. However, I meant to highlight just the rapid onsets that start out colder than the preceding glacial and end up hotter than the following interglacial. E.g., at ~342,000-334,000 ybp, I see jumps from -9.56 to +3.5 C. This part of the temperature record makes the abstract risks of warming-amplifying feedbacks more concrete to me. Bernard, thanks for adding what my post left out. jg
63463. Tom Curtis at 15:37 PM on 22 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Bernard J. @6, while I admire your fervour, your maths is wrong. An increase of CO2 levels over pre-industrial levels to 800 ppmv would result in a forcing of: 5.35 * ln(800/280) =~= 5.6 W/m^2 The forcing for doubling CO2 concentrations is 3.7 W/m^2, so if that caused just 1 degree C of warming, then the 5.6 W/m^2 would cause approx 1.5 degree C of warming, or around 0.7 degrees C additional warming relative to the warming already experienced. That would be welcome news indeed. The problem is, an increase of only 1 degree C per doubling of CO2 is extraordinarily unlikely. Not only is it well outside the IPCC expected range, but it becomes very difficult to explain why we have seen a 0.8 degree C increase in temperatures from the 1.8 W/m^2 increase in CO2 forcings seen since the industrial era, especially given that the climate response is slow and takes decades to reach the equilibrium response. Even if we hold out for the one in twenty chance that climate sensitivity for doubling CO2 is only 2 degrees C, that still represents 2.2 degrees additional warming for the 800 ppmv scenario, and takes us beyond the guardrail beyond which the consequences of Global Warming are not just deleterious, but potentially catastrophic. Assuming just a 2 degree C climate sensitivity represents the hail mary pass of climate policy. Assuming 1 degree C is a hail mary pass from a drunk, blindfolded quarter back.
63464. Bernard J. at 15:37 PM on 22 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Erm, I should watch where I'm putting my fingers. I meant:

       ...result in almost 2 degrees celcius of warming.

       Which, of course, is still regarded as a significant increase, as (failing) efforts to restrict current increases to below this target demonstrate.
63465. Doug Hutcheson at 15:28 PM on 22 February 2012
       Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
       GreenCooling @ 248 said

       "steel yourself for a brief look at Fakegate."

       It takes a strong stomach, I must admit. Methinks the Heartland doth protest too much. I wonder who they are fooling? The confirmed-valid documents provide enough rope to hang them, with any luck. The disputed document is still just that: disputed. Hands up all those who agree that it is a fake, just because Heartland says so.
63466. muoncounter at 14:50 PM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       I've asked Hillary Olson for a copy of the study she did; as I recall it was in painstaking detail. As for misrepresentation, one doesn't have to look very far.
63467. Bernard J. at 14:45 PM on 22 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       It would seem that Myers is attempting to undermine the type of challenge that I and many others often put to deniers, where they are asked to specifically explain at what point they digress from the science that supports global warming, and its sequelæ. My own challenge used to amount to around 10 questions, but the most recent iteration poses 11: 1) Is the planet warming? 2) Is the planet warming as much as climatologists say? 3) Is CO₂ a 'greenhouse' gas? 4) Is the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ increasing? 5) Are humans causing the increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO₂? 6) What is the contribution of CO₂ to the observed contemporary global warming? 7) What is the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂? 8) What will be the abiotic consequences of warming resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂? 9) What will be the biological/ecological/agricultural consequences of warming resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂? 10) What will be the political/social consequences of warming resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂? 11) What ethical/moral responsibility do polluting nations have to non-polluting countries, to future generations, and to the non-human species on the planet? It seems that Myers and his ilk find such questions uncomfortable because such scrutiny results in a dissection of their ideology. Myers seems to be reversing the investigative train that attempts to locate a denier's divergence from science, and pretending that the whole issue of the danger of global warming will disintegrate if enough doubt is sown about the components. Myers says:

       Its probably irresponsible to call anything in a science so young as climate “settled,” but the fact that increased atmospheric CO2 will warm the Earth by some amount is pretty close to being universally accepted.

       Note how Myers, without substantiation of his claim, repeats the denialist lie that climatology is a "young" science": with a century and a half of work behind it, climatology is NOT a "young" science. Note also how Myers slips in the concept of irresponsibility, and how he introduced both of the preceding concepts before casually throwing in the concession that CO₂ will warm the planet by "some amount", in a manner that itself appears intended to cast the increase as being insignificant. Myers subsequently repeats the notion of "debate" a number of times, without explaining how much debate or otherwise there actually is in the scientific arena. It seems that he is using the term as a rhetorical device to subliminally implant doubt in the minds of his readers. As jg notes in the OP Myers basically ignores the influence of feedings-back. But not only does he do this, and not only does he round down sensitivity to 1 C as jg observed, but he completely mangles his arithmetic:

       While some of the talk-show-type skeptics have tried to dispute this greenhouse theory, most of what I call the science-based skeptics do not, and accept a number circa 1C for the direct warming effect of a doubling of CO2. So what’s the problem? Why the debate? Isn’t this admission a “game over” for the skeptics? Actually, no. To understand this, let us do a bit of extrapolation. Current CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere today are around 390ppm, or about 0.039%. But even if we were to hit a relatively pessimistic level of 800ppm by the end of the century, this would, by the numbers above, imply a warming of about one degree.

       Wrong. Completely wrong. Even at a 1 degree celcius sensitivity, an increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration to 800 ppm would result in almost 3 degrees celcius of warming. This is because the reference concentration for sensitivity is the pre-Industrial atmospheric CO₂ concentration (~280 ppm), and not the present atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Myers is demonstrating that he doesn't know what he's talking about. And if he does understand the mathematics underpinning sensitivity - well, forum protocol prevents me from making explicit accusations, but in my own personal opinion he would, in such an instance, be lying. Now, even with a rounded-down sensitivity and with no feedback, going to 800 ppm atmospheric CO₂ concentration and a concommitant 3 degrees celcius warming would be "catastrophic" for much of the biodiversity and agriculture/horticulture of the planet. That Myers does not understand or acknowledge this shows his complete ignorance of human-, crop-, and eco-physiology, as well as of the long-term abiotic responses to that amount of warming. Myers uses many FUD words such as "second chained theory" (?), "assumed", "exaggerated", "Al Gore", "flat [sic] surface temperatures","missing heat", "Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My [indeed...]", "purportedly", and so on. I differ with jg on the non-necessity of debunking Myers' wide suite of scientific garbage, but I certainly acknowledge that it would take a whole chapter's-worth of writing to address it all. The guy is a veritable fountain of garbage. Oo, and not that I am one to speak, and not that it's of any direct consequence, but Myers' grammar and vocabulary are both dismal. The piece doesn't even seem to have been run past an editor, but if it had it would be invisible under all the red lines...
63468. CraigR at 14:40 PM on 22 February 2012
       DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
       Wow that's alot of money that the Heartland Institute gets ...I wonder what financial support the likes of World Wildlife Fund and or Greenpeace have at their disposal, it would be helpful to see comparisons..just curious?
63469. GreenCooling at 14:34 PM on 22 February 2012
       Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
       Only "partly a political struggle"? Although I'd defer to muoncounter on just about anything else, I think this rather understates the situation here. A very sophisticated analysis of the campaign we confront is provided recently by Associate Professor Donald Brown of Penn State University's Environmental Ethics, Science and Law Department at Think Progress. An if anyone needs a reminder of how responsive and unrepentantly duplicitous our friends over at Heartland are, please take a few deep breaths and steel yourself for a brief look at Fakegate. The #deniergate induced Heartland trainwreck has a long way to play out yet, but we can be sure it will get a lot more ugly and messy down here in the trenches of the climate war. However it's certainly not too soon to recognise the enormous debt of gratitude we owe to Dr Peter Gleick for blowing the whistle on this fraudulent abuse of the public interest. If Heartland wish to sue me for saying so I'll be only too happy to provide them with my details.
63470. chriskoz at 14:25 PM on 22 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       Byron @4, You are incorrect in your assumption that above temps are scaled in F. Temp anomalies in ice cores do span indeed 6-8K (or degC), as we've shown here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm whereas the anomalies in a similar graph scaled in F, do span ~20F, (interestingly the denialist sites are more likely to scale it in F), e.g. here: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/06/19/vostok-cores-show-zero-climate-sensitivity-2/
63471. skywatcher at 14:16 PM on 22 February 2012
       Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
       #66 "Ice melt and evaporation (phase changes) will absorb some of the heat at constant temperature..." You're funny, Ken! While still not getting around the difference between heat absorbed by the system and overall energy balance, you mention ice melt as if that will stop temperatures rising. It might... in places where there is ice. Did you notice that nearly all the world's glaciers are in retreat (WGMS), Arctic sea ice is declining (as is global sea ice). This is some of that phase change at constant temperature, you mention. Except that this phase change means the glaciers and ice sheets end up at a lower elevation, or uncover dark land or water, all of which leads to more melting and warmer temperatures! Thanks for clearing that up. /sarc
63472. KR at 14:12 PM on 22 February 2012
       Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
       Ken Lambert - "Yes transient *temperature* response - not energy gain." I have to find your last post, um, *stunning* in it's failure of physics. As long as there is an imbalance at the TOA, there will be ongoing energy change. Phase changes absorb a good bit of energy, but do not change ambient temperature - hence they go nowhere in terms of redressing the TOA imbalance while the energy accumulates. Temperature rises are themselves energy changes - and the only thing that can redress the TOA imbalance. There are no phase changes, no temperature changes, without energy changes. I strongly suggest you read up on your physics - what you have just posted pushes the "not even wrong" envelope.
63473. scaddenp at 13:58 PM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       Hmm, that is interesting because it doesnt take much effort to see that the paper was misrepresented and the data edited in the pseudo-skeptic version. What sites to we know of that are publishing Robinson's effort or derivatives? Could we send them a suggestion to remove and if not create a little page of "These sites knowingly misrepresent Keigwin's paper".
63474. muoncounter at 13:45 PM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       Misrepresentations of Keigwin's Sargasso Sea temperature data seem deeply embedded in denial-world. Our good friends Art Robinson and Willie Soon beat the esteemed viscount to it by quite a few years. Unfortunately, the Olson paper exposing this fraud has vanished from UT's earth and space science project website. Also see the abstract of this 2010 GSA presentation: Misrepresentations of Sargasso Sea temperatures by Arthur B. Robinson et al These are outright lies masquerading as valid science. But that's ok if you put your hands over your ears and repeat 'not listening' over and over again.
63475. scaddenp at 13:12 PM on 22 February 2012
       Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
       So Ken, are you willing to bet on such odds? If so, I have a few other propositions to make to you.
63476. scaddenp at 13:04 PM on 22 February 2012
       Monckton Misrepresents Scientists' Own Work (Part 1)
       Dana, I think you put above on wrong thread (should be Duped on climate change)
63477. Ken Lambert at 12:57 PM on 22 February 2012
       Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
       KR #65 Loeb says the imbalance is between 0.07 and 0.93W/sq.m so it could be zero now at the lower confidence limit. Add a few more of Hansen's aerosols and you won't need leprechauns.
63478. JP40 at 12:55 PM on 22 February 2012
       Global Extinction: Gradual Doom as Bad as Abrupt
       Well....... We'd better start inventing that technology, so that we can make it practical and implement it before we go the way of the Romans, Maya, and Easter islanders.
63479. Ken Lambert at 12:53 PM on 22 February 2012
       Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
       CBD #64 KR #65 Ice melt and evaporation (phase changes) will absorb some of the heat at constant temperature - just as freezing and condensation will give up heat at constant temperature. KR Yes transient *temperature* response - not energy gain.
63480. Steve L at 12:50 PM on 22 February 2012
       New research from last week 7/2012
       Hi CBD, I think there may be a common understanding of tipping point wrt Arctic Sea Ice referring to summer ice melt (and thus solar absorption into the Arctic Ocean) being self sustaining after CO2 tips it. I think a definition compatible with this hypothesis would be something like: global temperature required to melt the Arctic sea ice being higher than global temperature required to keep it melted after it does. Still loose, unfortunately, but the best I can do.
63481. adelady at 12:48 PM on 22 February 2012
       Global Extinction: Gradual Doom as Bad as Abrupt
       owl905 "And the big reason for that is technology; hint- read the 1972 Club of Rome report. - they also missed the technology factor." And what technology was that specifically? It was converting oil into fertiliser. The green revolution in places like India (and some people say the obesity epidemic in western countries) is entirely due to converting a non-renewable resource into food. How will we continue to feed 7 billion+ people as the major contributor to the soil productivity of the last few decades steadily becomes more expensive and eventually disappears? Technology can probably do it. But not the technology we've known over the last 50 years.
63482. Byron Smith at 12:46 PM on 22 February 2012
       Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
       "If a long slow wobble (precession) was sufficient for Earth's feedbacks to raise the global temperature 8-12 degrees, we should be cautious, wary, risk-adverse of a global disturbance of 1 degree C, as this one degree disturbance occurs on top of an interglacial." I assume that the graph labelled "Temperatures and Sunlight" is in ºF rather than ºC, which makes the above sentence somewhat confusing. I've read in many other places that the end of the last glacial was associated with a rise in global surface temperatures of about 5-6ºC (which is roughly 8-12ºC).
63483. tonydunc at 12:23 PM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       Adam, My "cursory dismissals" are based on reading comprehension, a general understanding of physics, and the use of google. They are very uncomplicated, and they are EXACTLY what you asked for. There were a couple of points that I was not qualified to comment on and I didn't, but the rest are all easily understandable and if read alongside Moncton's response, very clearly analyzed. They are certainly only slightly more cursory than Moncton's initial response to Abraham. You do not offer ANYTHING to contradict what I wrote. And there are actually a few things which are more a matter of opinion than anything else and a couple where he has a valid point. The issue at hand however is that in the first 77"points" Moncton shows Abraham's critique not only to be fairly accurate, but also that Moncton's refutations are themselves filled with distortions, errors and (if the moderator will allow) lies. I must say, I am disappointed in you Adam. So I am NOT going to go through the rest of the list. Too bad, maybe at 79 his arguments against Abraham start being valid.
63484. skywatcher at 12:19 PM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       Adam, Monckton's selecting individual papers that suggest a warm MWP (and misrepresenting others such as Keigwin) still fails the test of asking if the whole globe was at the same time warm. You construct a strawman by suggesting climate scientists only think Europe/Greenland was warm in the MCA. You might want to check Fig 2 of Mann et al 2009, where you'll find some little yellow, orange and red squares in Africa and China, for example. You'll also find some wide swathes of blue areas, such as central Russia and Alaska. Net result: globally a muted signal. For a strong MWP = high climate sensitivity argument, simple physics says so. Climate responds to forcings. Unless you have a mysterious hitherto undiscovered large forcing on the scale of modern CO2 forcing that drives the MWP, you need high sensitivity to drive such a change (as you do to drive the glacial cycles too). If the driver is merely slightly elevated solar + reduced volcanics, then sensitivity must be high to explain a warm MWP. You can try Hegerl et al 2006 for a discussion of forcing over the past 700 years. Also: "the pseudoskeptic's dilemma" (h/t muoncounter). Climate sensitivity, as presently understood, allows for climate change over the past millennium, as presently understood. It will be worrying for all of us if the MWP turns out to have been a hot, widespread event. Arguing for a strong MWP and low climate sensitivity is one of the many self-contradictory statements made by Monckton and other so-called 'skeptics'.
63485. dana1981 at 12:14 PM on 22 February 2012
       Monckton Misrepresents Scientists' Own Work (Part 1)
       Lessons from Past Predictions: Wallace Broecker may help elsa's understanding on this issue.
63486. Philippe Chantreau at 11:27 AM on 22 February 2012
       Monckton Misrepresents Scientists' Own Work (Part 1)
       Funglestrumpet, I am not qualified to diagnoses but I seem to recall that what you describe may be called histrionic personality disorder.
63487. tmac57 at 11:12 AM on 22 February 2012
       Monckton Misrepresents Scientists' Own Work (Part 1)
       Alex 25 and Tom 27- Yes, I suspected that his lordship was making his protestations insincerely for the benefit of his audience.It does amaze me though that they never seem to challenge him on any point,regardless how transparent the contradiction,or how offensive the tactic (swastikas...heil Hitler...really!!?)What does this ultimately say about the ethics of these so called 'skeptics'?
63488. scaddenp at 11:09 AM on 22 February 2012
       Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change
       Elsa - clouds and aerosols are uncertainties (again see the AR4 report) but with known limits. I frankly think Lovelock was both exaggerating and quoting dated information. This is not what I hear from private conversation with modellers. The physics is known, the modelling of it is the issue. As to your interpretation of the other two papers? Huh? Did you get past an abstract? B&S was written to respond to claim about solar forcing but used ALL of the GISS forcings and shows a purely phenomenological approach to attribution. Lean & Rind do similar. The point is that your claim about "lack of mathematical technique" is wrong. Model approaches to attribution are in AR4. Broecker wrote when temperatures were declining, pointing out the GHG forcings would soon overcome aerosols and warm the earth. With an incredibly primitive model (1975 - what was your computer?), he still managed to predict the temperature for 2010 with remarkable accuracy. Again, the point is this is the seminal paper on modern AGW and written when aerosols were dominant not "added to the theory". He correctly predicted GHG would dominate. "I would not agree with you that a model can differ on how to compute anything." Well I write the code for physical models (oil/gas generation) and so I respectfully disagree. Tell me again what the difference in model assumptions are? You claim you are not a troll, fair enough, but so far you have made numerous incorrect assertions about climate science and use them as the basis of your skepticism. Someone relying on unsupported assertions is hard to take seriously. Please quote science papers or sections of AR4 when making assertions in future.
63489. muoncounter at 11:08 AM on 22 February 2012
       Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change
       elsa#76: "my detailed criticisms" Your criticisms are hardly detailed, nor are they really criticisms. You've quoted James Lovelock more than once and that begs the question: Do you know what his qualifications are, so that his opinion on climate modeling can be placed in proper context? Why have you not quoted some of his other opinions? "Polar bears will not become extinct, they will just go back to what they were, which is brown bears. ...By 2040, parts of the Sahara desert will have moved into middle Europe. We are talking about Paris. As far north as Berlin." These are not the opinions of a knowledgeable researcher (polar bears will evolve back into brown bears?) The fact that you rely so heavily on this type of opinion, rather than substantive science, seriously hurts your credibility.
63490. scaddenp at 10:44 AM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       Promoter so Poptech's list are looking for reassurances for their biases when they lack the skill or motivation to investigate the science themselves.
       Moderator Response: [muoncounter] Please, nothing more on the Poptech 'list.'
63491. JMurphy at 10:35 AM on 22 February 2012
       Medieval Warm Period was warmer
       Camburn, the sources you have used (as well as others available via those sources) give plenty of information which should show you how unlikely it is that the MWP was global and/or contemporaneous; how unlikely it is that many temperatures were as high as they are today; how much resolution is actually possible, and what are the probable causes of the warming of that period. Here are some of the highlights, giving linked references where they are separate from your own references, which I assume you are already conversant with - but you may have missed the relevant parts I have picked-out : ENSO variability continued as now but oscillating about a colder mean state. ...cooler tropical Pacific Ocean... ...drier in southern South America, wetter in northern South America and Central America, wetter in the Sahel region of Africa but drier in coastal east Africa and drier in parts of the Mediterranean and southern Europe. (From your first relevant link, which is more particularly detailed with regard to Western USA) When the Z-C [ZebiakCane ENSO] model is forced in this way [with changing volcanic forcing and solar irradiance over the past 1000 years], eastern tropical Pacific SSTs tend toward a cool, La Nina–like base state during the model run's early period (circa AD 1100 to 1250) of high solar irradiance and reduced volcanism. Long-Term Aridity Changes in the Western United States - Cook et al, 2004 (Paper referenced in your first link) ...temperatures in the Medieval Warm Period are comparable to those in the current warm period over China, and the effect of solar activity on climate cannot be neglected in any period of the millennium climate change. (From your second relevant link which I didn't really find to be the "confirmation" you labelled it) The following were found from that second link and are generally concerned with China rather than the increasing region you ended up describing (China/and the surrounding area/Asia) : The effective solar radiation and solar irradiance have significant impacts on the temporal variation of both temperature and precipitation. Volcanic activity plays an important role in the sudden drop of temperature before the Present Warm Period (PWP). There is a positive correlation between precipitation and volcanic activity before 1400 A.D., and a negative relationship between the two thereafter. The concentration of greenhouse gases increases in the PWP, and the temperature and precipitation increase accordingly. The warmest epoch in the MWP covered half of the 12th century. The increasing trend of temperature with model results is consistent with the variation in the instrumental data on the inter-decadal time scale, and exceeds the maximum temperature in the MWP after 1920 A.D Simulated analysis of summer climate on centennial time scale in eastern China during the last millennium - Wang et al, 2011 During past two millennia, a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected, but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene. ...but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period (AD 900–AD 1300) was not distinct in China, especially west China Temperature and precipitation changes in China during the Holocene - Quansheng et al, 2007 To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. However, the magnitude of the warming is weaker than that in the 20th century. The warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model - Zhou et al, 2011 Our data indicate that we are in the middle of the 260-yr-long relatively dry period and suggest that this climate will persist for about another century before the next 130 yr of relatively wet climate. The human-induced global warming over the past century, however, may add its own effects on top of this 400-yr cycle and exacerbate the intensity of natural fluctuation and drought Possible solar forcing of century-scale drought frequency in the northern Great Plains - E.Yu & E.Ito, 1999 From your third relevant link : In winter, the decadal-scale pre-1901 temperature anomalies mostly remain below the twentieth century average. Within the twentieth century, the 30-year filtered anomalies of both seasons do not exceed the uncertainty range of warm periods in previous centuries. Our spatial reconstructions indicate differences in the low and high frequency variability between the subregions of SSA. This study clearly revealed that temporally and spatially highly resolved multi-centennial climate field reconstructions are also possible in the SH. Nevertheless, skill values are still rather low and there is a striking lack of annually resolved proxy data, especially from tropical and subtropical regions (see Boninsegna et al. 2009) and from the eastern lowlands of SSA.
63492. barry1487 at 10:33 AM on 22 February 2012
       The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
       Ken Lambert, my point was semantical. In no way do I endorse the suggestion that ENSO flux is an external forcing, any more than I think the seasons are responsible for the global warming of the last century.
63493. Tom Curtis at 10:30 AM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       With regard to Poptech's list, I am aware of a recent project that has found over 24,000 climate change related papers in peer reviewed journals. Not all of those papers are peer reviewed, but just the requirement to appear in a peer reviewed journal is already a far more restrictive criterion than that used by Poptech. That means that Poptech's list of papers shows at best that 3.7% of relevant peer reviewed literature is opposed to the consensus. That is, like climate scientists who disagree with the consensus, peer reviewed papers that disagree with the consensus, are a very small, unrepresentative rump. Unfortunately I cannot link to that list as yet. So as an alternative approach, I did a search for "global warming" on google scholar. I got 731,000 hits. Allowing for duplicate entries and non-peer reviewed papers on that list, that means poptech's list is still much less than 0.5% of all scholarly articles on global warming. Promoters of the Poptech list will now no doubt say that science is not decided by consensus. Exactly right! So why are you quoting x number of papers opposed to the consensus, and hence appealing to raw numbers. If don't believe science is decided by numbers, why do you quote a raw number from Poptech instead of discussing the specific details of the specific papers (in appropriate threads)? The answer, of course, is the papers do not stand up to detailed scrutiny. They seek the anonymity of the list because they know they won't survive in the spotlight.
63494. scaddenp at 10:27 AM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       Adam, still waiting for you to pick something which you think convincing. Closest so far would be Douglass 2007, see here and then take it the appropriate thread.
63495. owl905 at 10:19 AM on 22 February 2012
       Monckton Misrepresents Scientists' Own Work (Part 1)
       Typical Moncton - calls someone fascist while displaying the nazi swastica.
63496. Doug Hutcheson at 10:07 AM on 22 February 2012
       Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate
       

       The WSJ has now published a 'skeptic' response

       432 comments to it already, with the same old ratio of deniers to real sceptics. SkS debunking might amount to repeating much of what has already been said, because I saw nothing new in the letter. It seems that letters such as those from the 16 'concerned scientists' do little but subtract from the sum of human knowledge. I almost wish that the ENSO would reverse right now, so temperatures would resume rising unequivocally and make these disinformers look as wrong as I suspect they are. Almost. The trouble is, it will take unequivocal and widespread extreme, heat-related weather events to get the attention of Mr. Average and gain traction in the MSM. In other words, people are going to have to die before the message can get through and that is going to depend upon the MSM reporting the catastrophes and connecting the dots to AGW. I can only hope the situation becomes bad enough that it cannot be ignored, without involving the loss of the great ice sheets, or too many innocent lives.
63497. Tom Curtis at 09:53 AM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       Adam: 1) Accusing somebody of fraud on the basis of false, but easily checked information is never a small "minor point"; 2) I notice that you have not responded to my request that your check the validity of Monckton's purported direct quote of Al Gore. Please do so, and to not make ridiculous claims about my responding only to one "minor point" until you do so; 3) While you are about it, would you care to indicate whether or not Monckton's purported direct quote of Justice Burton is accurate? (Hint: it is not.) You want to treat Monckton's claims about the St Regis tower as an aberration, when example after example shows that getting facts wrong is his modus operandi. The man is literally a conspiracy theorist. He is literally a promoter of a "miracle cure" in the fine tradition of snake oil salesmen everywhere. He is a self admitted liar. And yet you expect us to believe things because "Monckton said". Wake up and smell the coffee.
63498. idunno at 09:53 AM on 22 February 2012
       A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
       Fans of the great man may be pleased to hear that we have been promised a new instalment of His Sublime Fragrant Viscountness's wisdom, due to be lavished on a grateful peasantry some time soon... On 7 February, WUWT published the latest in their Monckton/potholer debate. After posting a quite pricelessly irrelevent critique Al Gore, Christopher has promised an actual reply to potholer's work "in a fortnight". Anthony Watts is refereeing this, so I expect that His Imperial (and Simultaneously Metric) Lordship may be allowed a little more time... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/07/update-on-the-monckton-hadfield-debate/ ...but even so, I can hardly wait. He is better than Wodehouse.
63499. elsa at 09:52 AM on 22 February 2012
       Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change
       Scaddenp lest you think that it is only "denialists" that think along lines like the piece that you quote from me I would ask you to remember what james Lovelock had to say about the models: "The great climate science centres around the world are more than well aware how weak their science is. If you talk to them privately they're scared stiff of the fact that they don't really know what the clouds and the aerosols are doing. They could be absolutely running the show. We haven't got the physics worked out yet." Turning to the two pieces that you list: B&S talk mainly about solar forcings so are not really relevant here. The broeker study makes some forecasts of warming throughout the years 1940 to 1970. Here it would appear it did not even get the direction right let alone the quantity. The final decade that they list (to 2010) also has the greatest temperature increase, yet we know from elsewhere on this site that the trend was flat for that period at least on the surface. I would not agree with you that a model can differ on how to compute anything. You can feed in a set of assumptions to a model and look at the outcomes. The computation is a given, only the assumptions can be different. Bernard J I can assure you that I am not a troll. If someone provides proper logical answers to my detailed criticisms I will be happy to shut up and go away. Your post does not begin to do this.
63500. JP40 at 09:24 AM on 22 February 2012
       Global Extinction: Gradual Doom as Bad as Abrupt
       I have read more stuff about this silly theory and it is saying basically that the inner core would move towards Pangea and that would cause the gravity imbalance. The inner core contains about 2% of the earth's mass, and although it can move relative to the outer core, it is impossible for there to be a significant imbalance in the earth's mass. Think of the earth as a spinning object, because you obviously haven't. can we please stop discussing this lunacy and talk about the implications of the extinction on climate change today.

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