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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 64051 to 64100:

  1. Peter Hadfield on Himalayan glacier melt
    Great post from the Daily Telegraph on this subject. As the author, Tom Chivers, says, this is proof that 'AGW' is not some huge global scientific conspiracy. The research that the those in denial are crowing about was undertaken and published by a group of regular climate scientists without any axes to grind. If anyone is ever going to show that 'AGW is wrong', it won't be fake sceptic bloggers -- it'll be the climate scientists that they despise.
  2. Peter Hadfield on Himalayan glacier melt
    "What on Earth could be causing that...?"
    What, pray tell, indeed?
  3. Peter Hadfield on Himalayan glacier melt
    Lovely!
  4. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    I think it should be noted that the current data are from a different instrument as the AMSR-E instrument is not working.
  5. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Chris G, I also thought that the strong polar jet bottled up cold air which then plunged into Europe, but that does not appear to be the case from these anomalies: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php After building an jet stream animation for January here http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/archive/jetstream_archive.html I have even less confidence the bottled up theory, but frankly I don't know how to evaluate the animation.
  6. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Hmm, if this year's jet stream pattern starts to repeat in the next several years, maybe arctic ice will last a little longer than the current rate of decline would lead us to believe. No doubt that would be small consolation. Plus, if the La Nina weakens, I suspect that might snap the pattern to something else.
  7. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    I was thinking about the unusual jet stream pattern that has kept arctic air out of the lower latitudes more than is typical. So, I'm thinking with less mixing of air across latitudes, there would be an opportunity for it to get cooler than normal within the polar cell area. That would kind of jive with it being bitterly cold when it did plunge south, and I think we have seen that with the cold snap in Europe. Plus, it would be consistent with Neven's blog on the Bering Sea. Just guessing; I have not been able to find anomalies for that region for just the last several months.
  8. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    Greening of the Sahara-Sahel region: Effects on Africa Study of rice yields in response to higher CO2 Rice yields, varity selection results The forest is young, which would confirm other FACE findings: Forest growth at the Yatir forest To bad we can't keep the higher CO2 without the other projected negatives.
  9. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    layzej - "Of the three positions, I'm inclined to trust......" Not a very scientific approach eh? How about reading those studies I linked to? Full copies of all are freely available online - at least they used to be, that's how I got hold of them. The crux of the issue is that the CO2 fertilization effect, i.e a net increase of global land-based vegetation biomass, doesn't seem to be panning out in the real world. So the climate model simulations could be drastically underestimating the amount of warming we're likely to get. Scarily so, because the CO2 fertilization effect is a biiig negative feedback in the simulations. That John Nielsen-Gammon suggests that net land biosphere CO2 uptake should be prima facie evidence of the CO2 fertilization effect underscores his lack of research on this topic. He's failed his own litmus test. I think you'll be surprised about where a lot of that CO2 we emit is ending up. You shouldn't really be, if you think deeply about the amount of new buildings we humans erect.
  10. Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
    Sphaerica@73: My father is far from ignorant nor arrogant. Believe it or not, he is VERY concerned about the lowering of PH of the oceans. He sees this as a incontrovertible issue. As for myself, to get a feeling for the future, I study the past. I make decissions based on paleo records of climate concerning my growing region. When studying the paleo, I try to incorporate current happenings to get an idea of what the near term climate may/will be. This is detracting from CO2 and plants tho. If you can find a more appropriate thread, the discussion could continue. Thank you.
  11. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    Sphaerica@99: "And yet you come to this site and post comment after comment encouraging people to ignore the science behind climate change, and as a result to continue living their lives the way they always have, fraught with waste and ill-advised/unnecessarily-wasteful practices." I don't post with the idea of encouraging people to ignore climate science. I post with the idea of increasing people's knowledge and perspective concerning climate, and the science. I agree, pass on the government spending/economics. It does however, play a role in the economic dynamics of achieving meaningful adaptation.
  12. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    The next solar maximum looks to be a mild one but will likely coencide with an El Nino. That should see off at least a few of the sceptics. http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/gcs_fig_1_big.jpg
  13. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    paulhtremblay#31: Isn't the idea that black carbon deposited on snow decreases ice/snow albedo? So it is two or more separate processes: aerosols increasing atmospheric albedo, BC as aerosol (short-lived) increasing atmospheric albedo, but decreasing albedo when on the ground. camburn#33: Always glad to be of service.
  14. Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
    72, Camburn,
    "Those young folks sure do not understand climate do they?"
    A perfect example of what I term the "arrogant ignorant." Those people have been in this country since its inception. They're the same people who said "if man had been meant to fly, God would have given him wings" and any number of other fallacies. Perhaps if his son explained to him how climate differs from weather, and that the science is a whole lot more intricate, detailed and well-considered than he understands or gives credit, then maybe he'd be a little more open minded. But your demonstration of your father's "when I was a kid" sort of ignorance means nothing. It sounds like he wouldn't believe in climate change whether he was told it was catastrophic or harmless. So what's your point? That there are people who are so arrogant, and so ignorant, that nothing will convince them? That's obvious. But for the intelligent, rational people -- and those who are young enough to realize that this is going to directly affect them, unlike your father who will never see how bad things can get -- the truth is the truth. You admonitions about "fear" are, from my point of view, a simple expression of your own wish that there were nothing wrong, and your own annoyance at being reminded that, no matter what you want to believe, something is wrong. I'm curious... what does your father say about ocean pH? And how do you respond?
  15. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    muoncounter@26: You have posted a paper that is contrast to Schmidt-Shindell. Thanks for adding to my confusion....:)
  16. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    paulhtremblay@31: Yes, because of the albedo affect.
  17. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    98, Camburn, Not "desolate." That's an unnecessary exaggeration. There are credible projections that climate change will result in reduced precipitation in the Southern US, and the Mediterranean, and other regions. You should be a little less cavalier about what does and does not concern you.
    I live my life as low in carbon emissions...
    And yet you come to this site and post comment after comment encouraging people to ignore the science behind climate change, and as a result to continue living their lives the way they always have, fraught with waste and ill-advised/unnecessarily-wasteful practices.
    The result of government spending with no return of value...
    That's an unnecessary foray into politics on which I will pass. Certainly budgets must be reigned in because we live on a planet that is living beyond its means in a lot of different ways. Finding the right areas to cut is the issue, but it's also politics that is OT here.
  18. The sun is getting hotter
    A good research link to the sun: Dr. Leif Svalgarrd's Research page His current research shows that the TSI has been constant for well over 100 years. Lot's to digest on the link above.
  19. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    @muoncounter30 >>There's a conspicuous bit missing from the quoted section on aerosols I'm just a bit confused by the Real Climate post. On the one hand, as aerosols decreased, the warming from CO2 increased. That's clear. But despite the overall decrease in aerosols, back carbon increased. In contrast to aerosols, black carbon increases warming. Why is that so--because of the albedo affect?
  20. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    Sphaerica: When I see credible projections that the Southern USA is going become a desolate area, I will take that into consideration. And when I see credible projections concerning the actual response to increased CO2, other than oceans, I will also take that into consideration. As I have stated, the potential lowering of PH is a HUGE concern. I live my life as low in carbon emissions as economically possible. I understand very well the economic dynamics of the current period. They are starting to be played out in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, UK, USA. The result of government spending with no return of value has/will doom the changes required as the money is not there to do so. It has already been spent/consumed by government.
  21. Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
    Sphaerica: Fear factor Think about this for a minute: My father is a very active 86 year old man. When he sees an article, (he reads everything he can get his hands on as of yet) that mentions AGW and weather extremes, he just shoots back with this "Those young folks sure do not understand climate do they?" He will then go on to expand the weather extremes that he lived through. By using his life's experiences, he shows that climate has always been variable. He will also mention paleo climate, at least locally. He is a well read man... By extension, when he talks to other folks in his age group, they nod in agreement. Then they talk to their children/grandchildren. See how this is working? Folks talk about the Dust Bowl days of the 30's and blame farming. The farming practices of the time certainly did contribute to the dust, but a lot of dust was uprooted native grasses as well. My dad talks about watching a meadow slowly disappearing before his eyes. This was untilled soils. The static electricity developed by the dry strong steady wind burnt the grass, exposeing the roots, and just blew it away. No matter who one thinks, elders have knowledge to share. One must take that knowledge into perspective when addressing AGW.
  22. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    The snowline in 2011 was not particularly low in the Himalaya as seen on Milam Glacier, India or Petrov Glacier, Altai
  23. Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
    Sphaerica@70: (-snip1. Climate sensativity to increased CO2. What some are percieving as related to CO2 sensativity is climatic response to solar changes. Maybe I am bullheaded...have been called that by dear friends at times, but as presented, I do not feel confident that a credible number for sensativity has been achieved IMHO. a. Recent research by Dr. Svalgaard shows that TSI has been virtually constant for the past 120 years, and potentially longer. b. Basin studies of discharge rates etc show that there is a direct connection to solar activity and hydrological functions. 1. I have no clue as to why this happens, I am concerned with the periodicity of when it happens and the effects it will/does have on food production variables. 2. The connection between solar and large basin discharge indicates a function between solar and clouds. I have no idea if Dr. Svensmark is right or wrong, but I do think he is onto something at least. c. There are studies that show a connection between solar and jet stream paths. When I said solar, I was not talking pure TSI, as that variable is not very variable. Dr. Svalgaard has a link that provides very valuable research: Dr. Svalgaard research page-) We have a difference of philosophy. I live near EERC: EERC Website I also have a friend who is working on a Hydrogen Fuel Cell there. This work is/was exciting to me as it could provide a potential source of replacement for diesel consumeing engines. His research money came predominely from private sources till 3 years ago. Then some stimulus grants were awarded. The private money started to dry up, as the companies funding his research wanted the rights to it. Now the stimulus money is drying up and the private money is not replacing it. A complicated issue. His team thought they were close so many times, but have not been able to overcome the last hurdles yet. Soon I hope......soon. Ya see, I can put up a wind generator, produce H and not have to buy FF fuels, when and if, a H fuel cell is feasable. A pipe dream? I hope not. Solutions continued: I am also working on getting a wind generator co-op formed. You can make N fertilizer from H. There is lots of water presently in my area, wind area 4 as far as wind, below an escarpment so the geese don't fly through here often etc. Harness the water/wind and make N without using CH4 as a base feed stock. This is not a pipedream, as the U of Minn has a small scale experiment of this nature working right now. The funding for this has come from farmers who pay the Corn Growers Assn....private funding once again. The expertise in designing this came from education, but the funding came from private. As far as unfettered capitalism, that does not work either. I think one of the greatest Presidents of the 20th Century was Theodore Roosevelt. I am sure you know of his accomplishments against great odds. I have provided a solution that showed private funding to be very important. As far as the Tea Party, the function of that bunch is to show how fast spending has grown on the local/state/federal level with very little production to show for it. They do have their points and exercise their right to expand on them. I agree with a few, I disagree with as many.
    Response:

    [DB] OT snipped.

  24. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Sphaerica: There's a conspicuous bit missing from the quoted section on aerosols. This is from Shindell's RC post regarding Shindell and Faluvegi 2009: We also estimated that aerosols in total contributed 1.1 +/- 0.8ºC to the 1976-2007 Arctic warming. This latter aerosol contribution to Arctic warming results from both increasing BC and decreasing sulfate, and as both were happening at once their contributions cannot be easily separated ... -- emphasis added Blame the warming on that rascally EPA; first they made us decrease sulfate emissions, so they could come back and regulate our carbon.
  25. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    97, Camburn, Actually, if you're in ND, you may well be one of the few that benefits from climate change. The net loss will be huge, but you could be raking it in due to a combination of better productivity coupled with rising prices because of the desolation in the Southern USA.
  26. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    Camburn, You are kidding yourself by putting undo weight on what you like (CO2 is plant food) and ignoring what you don't like (temperature and precipitation variations that could more than destroy any benefits that might be derived from higher CO2 levels). Sadly, given your personal approach to the problem, you are going to have to take personal blame for your predicament if the practice of agriculture gets rough in your region in the coming decades (unless, of course, you've retired by then and sold your farm to some sucker). Climate change is not a variation on Chicken Little. It is instead a worldwide version of the Grasshopper and the Ants fable. In this case, though, the Grasshoppers don't mind working, they just don't want to adjust how they work and pay closer attention to the coming "winter."
  27. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Camburn, You can find a guest post from Dr. Shindell himself over at RealClimate here. I don't have time at the moment, I'm heading out, but I'll read it later tonight.
  28. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Dan, Camburn did provide the link above, to a NASA article from 4/8/9 discussing the paper.
    The researchers found that the mid and high latitudes are especially responsive to changes in the level of aerosols. Indeed, the model suggests aerosols likely account for 45 percent or more of the warming that has occurred in the Arctic during the last three decades.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Thank you for the correction. Tied one on last night and was more cranky than is my wont.
  29. Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
    Camburn, As far as I know, this discussion is "on topic" given that the original post is about climate change policy and the availability of oil.
    ...the arguement is the sensativity of climate to CO2, and that is very debateable.
    Actually, no, with every passing day there is more and more evidence that they have climate sensitivity right. We are also learning by viewing the effects of merely minor climate change on today's world that even a lower climate sensitivity may be very, very dangerous. You point here is invalid.
    You will also see folks deny the effects of the sun who are ardent AGW supporters.
    This is B.S. Prove it, or withdraw the assertion. [It's also meaningless in the current discussion, and I have no idea why you'd throw it in. What difference does it make that you perceive some segment of people to believe somethign that is false? How does that change the equation?]
    Educate people without the constant "fear" factor
    This is foolish. Why not? AGW is not a fantasy conjured up to trick/frighten people into doing what's good for them. It's reality. The fact that you don't understand and accept it doesn't mean that other people shouldn't be educated.
    Stop government meddling.
    This is also foolish. The free market is not an omniscient god that always gets it right. Quite to the contrary, prior to "government meddling" beginning at the turn of the century the USA went through frequent economic upheavals/depressions, egregious social and moral failures (slaves, Native Americans, child labor, etc.), and questionable business practices. Our society today works as well as it does for a reason, and a return to the hey day of letting the rich and powerful do anything they want, driven purely by the profit motive, is a recipe for disaster. This is the Tea Party fantasy that capitalism, having won the cold war, is some all-powerful force for truth, justice and the American way. That sort of simplistic and ill-founded idealism is going to hurt us. The bottom line here is the true price of FF use is not embedded in the price at the pump. There are obvious, foreseeable, and hard-to-pay costs that defeat capitalism because you don't have to pay them until long after the initial transaction has taken place. If you have some sort of solution to this other than government involvement, I'd love to hear it, but just letting the free market manage the problem is like hoping that fresh air and clean water will cure you of cancer.
  30. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    @camburn10. So you doubt the measured data going back to 1900, but you are certain of anecdotal evidence from one year? By the way, as as Phillipe already noted, anecdotal does not mean second hand; it means an individual's observation, as opposed to a systematic set of observations.
  31. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Black carbon was mentioned among all the forcings discussed here. Doesn't look like much of a player. Even worse for the BC believers is Warren et al 2008: Preliminary results indicate that the snow cover in Alaska, Canada, and the Arctic Ocean has lower BC concentrations now than 20 years ago (5-10 ppb instead of 15-30 ppb), consistent with the declining trend of BC found in air samples at Alert. -- emphasis added How can a pollutant that is decreasing in concentration contribute to an increasing melt rate?
  32. The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    Doug H: For a purely visual guide to separating noise from signal, refer to the video on the Trend and Variation thread.
  33. The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    Doug H @ 20 and 24 Try Khan Academy . I suggest you google - Ted khan academy for a 20 minute video to get an understanding of the site before you try it. This should (may) be able to get you where you want to go. Also, there was a thread a few months back with suggestions, is that still available? Having a place to discuss and share info that is not directly related to a specific topic may help general readers to discuss and understand without throwing topics off. We are in the same boat Doug H, I trust sks but want to better understand the details.
  34. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    owl@19: Read the links to studies that I provided. Thank you. Philippe: The 40% number came from a study by Schmidt-Shindell. If you don't agree with their findings, show us why they are wrong.
  35. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    There are two areas of study being developed here. 1. Established forests and the effects of CO2. 2. Short lived biota. I will have to read Rob's links concerning established forests as this is an area that I have not studied. Item 2: Higher levels of CO2 are benificial for short lived biota growth. This has been demonstrated in the links provided. Short lived biota produce the bulk of grains etc that support man's diet.
  36. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Enginerd, the January anomaly for much of Alaska was 20F (11C) below normal. Part of the Svalbard anomaly is global warming (see Tom's post 8) but most of the recent Svalbard anomaly was the jet stream pattern.
  37. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Enginerd, February 8th saw a new day record on Svalbard of 7.0 degrees C. I don't know how much above the baseline that is, but I guess it's more than 12.2 degrees C. But that's just weather. Here are the temperatures of the past 12 months compared to standard temps. Both links lead to comments made by Kris on the Arctic Sea Ice blog.
  38. Book review of Michael Mann's The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
    I loved the book. I just had one quibble. Mann spends some time explaining principal component analysis, which is important, as people like me know nothing about it. However, to explain it, he draws an analogy to the use of Factor a analysis in intelligence research, as described by Gould in The Mismeasure of Man. Luckily for me, I have a degree in Psychology and had read the book, so I could sort of follow along, but I still didn't understand how what Mann described was similar to reification. However, someone else reading the book may have been completely lost. There are many people who have heard of neither factor analysis nor principal component analysis, and using one to explain the other seems like an odd choice.
  39. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Two quick comments: 1) As the decline in Arctic sea ice continues, I'm somewhat amused by the ongoing efforts by some to downplay the significance of a warming climate as a contributing factor. Ice doesn't melt by magic. 2) I'm astounded by the temperature data for Svalbard cited in this post. Am I reading correctly that the *monthly* average temperature there is 12.2 degrees Celsius above normal? I know, it's just one month at one location, but that's an amazing observation.
  40. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    Norman @48, you evidently do not get it. In your post 31 you referenced a document which had details for six separate aquifers, details for the aggregate of the other aquifers in the state not specifically mentioned, and details for the states total. That is eight separate sets of figures you could have chosen from. Somehow, entirely by accident according to you, you just happened to choose the figures with the lowest recharge rate relative to withdrawals. Not only that, you managed to choose the figures with a ration of withdrawals to recharge that was 8.9 times higher than the ratio for the total for the state, and 10.9 times greater than for any other single aquifer. And you managed, quite by accident apparently, to choose the only aquifer with a ratio that suggested the issue of recharge was trivial, and could be neglected. And indeed, you then continued to neglect it in following posts, persistently. Consequently, your explanation does not wash. You were cherry picking. And saying you were not does not make it so. Given this episode, and Norman's apparent inability to understand basic integrity in data reporting, reader would be well advised to ignore anything he has to offer in future, for it will not be based on a full examination of the evidence, but only on that evidence which suites whichever case he is making.
  41. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    layzej @93, I appreciate that you think I am more nuanced, but on this topic Rob Painting is certainly better informed than I am, and I suspect also than John N-G is. He has certainly found some research which counters John N-G on the short term impacts of CO2 rise along with global warming on land plants. My point has been that John N-G was not justified in his criticisms of the blog post above. Indeed, it is not even relevant in that it missed the point of the post, which does not discuss time frames per se. On the other hand his point may be relevant regarding Rob's prospective three part blog (which I am looking forward to). I doubt, however, that it will be justified.
  42. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    Of the three positions, I'm inclined to trust Tom Curtis, whose position seems more nuanced, over Rob Painting or John Nielson-Gammon. I'll use IPCC AR5 as the final arbiter. It would be ironic if JNG ends up failing his own litmus test ;)
  43. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    The weather has turned in the Barents and Kara regions. In the coming 2-3 weeks we'll see how much of the ice returns. Of course, it will be much thinner than usual. I've also just published a short piece on the situation in the Bering Sea, where ice cover is anomalously high for the time of year. We'll start discussing the Northwest Passage, once it starts opening up completely in August, just like in the last 5 years. Or was it 6 years? I've lost count... ;-)
  44. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    Tom Curtis @34 My point is off topic for this thread so I will quit but before ending you ask me to apologize and blame me for "cherry picking". In the 31 post you refer to I was not "cherry picking" the worst recharge rate to form a global conclusion or even support my original post of 21. It was a side point directed at you to show the difference in aquifiers. Some recharge quickly, others not so quickly. It was a side point only and its use was as a demonstration of difference. I did include Global amounts in other posts. So I can apologize for a misunderstanding in what the post's objective was. Does that help? The 8.93 to 1 figure was in a post 33 to KR. I was contrasting his paper with others that indicate the amount of water released form water mining is much greater than what this study showed. In your final post of 47 you would seem to support my assertion that KR's report has greatly undereported how much water is being removed from underwater storage. You have the point withdrawl is only 5% of recharge rate. Sounds small but look at the number you posted 734 km^3/year. This is more than the 545 km^3 I used to show 8.9:1 vs KR's paper. The 545 was just water used for irrigation, other uses have made the number larger to 734 km^3/year. Does this explanation help? My posts may be in direct response to someone's post and not be part of an overall (which is what post 31 to you was about).
  45. Northwest passage has been navigated in the past
    Camburn, I have never called into question the skills of Capt. Larsen (in fact I praise him and his crew), but his own words (as given above) speak volumes : ...“It was really the only fine day we had during the entire passage...” (2) “...season was the worst in years.” (1) (2) Read the references given if you can.
  46. CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
    Thanks all! It will be interesting to see where the IPCC AR5 (with newer studies considered) will fall on this issue.
  47. Dikran Marsupial at 21:21 PM on 12 February 2012
    The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    Minor note: If Santer at al. investigate the amount of data needed to detect a trend of 2 degrees per century and get 17 years, if the trend is less than that then a longer timescale will be needed to reliably detect it.
  48. The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
    KR and Bernard J, thank you both for your contributions. I revisited the 'Separating Signal and Noise' page KR linked and appreciate the information (and the comments afterward). My difficulty is that I don't have the math to follow the arguments very far. It is frustrating to be intensely interested in the topic and be unable to dig deeper into it. I judge the expert advice on this site to be sound, but that is not the same as being able to work it out for myself. Can I have my life all over again please? I promise to try harder next time ...
  49. A prelude to the Arctic melting season
    Beaufort Gyre link: http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=66296 the 'flywheel' of the NH ocean current system may change direction leading to changes elsewhere, but how many 'gears' does the system have? one could assume there are several potentially stable energy levels between the various water masses, but does the potential disappearance of summer ice change the entire system even in winter?
  50. Volcanic Influence on the Little Ice Age
    Thanks muoncounter -- SkS articles are fantastic and I always learn from the comments too.

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