Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #15 2024
Posted on 11 April 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Global carbon emissions in 2023, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Annual global CO2 emissions dropped markedly in 2020 owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, decreasing by 5.8% relative to 2019 (ref. 1). There were hopes that green economic stimulus packages during the COVD crisis might mark the beginning of a longer-term decrease in global emissions toward net-zero emissions, but instead emissions rebounded and quickly exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 2021. However, year-on-year growth has slowed, with 5.4% increases in 2021 (ref. 2) (reaching 35.1 Gt CO2) and 1.9% increases in 2022 (ref. 3) (reaching 35.7 Gt CO2), rapidly using up the remaining carbon budget. Here, we outline global CO2 emissions (encompassing fossil fuel combustion and cement production) from the Carbon Monitor project (https://carbonmonitor.org) for the year 2023.
Moral hazards and solar radiation management: Evidence from a large-scale online experiment, Schoenegger & Mintz-Woo, Journal of Environmental Psychology
Solar radiation management (SRM) may help to reduce the negative outcomes of climate change by minimising or reversing global warming. However, many express the worry that SRM may pose a moral hazard, i.e., that information about SRM may lead to a reduction in climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, we report a large-scale preregistered, money-incentivised, online experiment with a representative US sample (N = 2284). We compare actual behaviour (donations to climate change charities and clicks on climate change petition links) as well as stated preferences (support for a carbon tax and self-reported intentions to reduce emissions) between participants who receive information about SRM with two control groups (a salience control that includes information about climate change generally and a content control that includes information about a different topic). Behavioural choices are made with an earned real-money endowment, and stated preference responses are incentivised via the Bayesian Truth Serum. We fail to find a significant impact of receiving information about SRM and, based on equivalence tests, we provide evidence in favour of the absence of a meaningfully large effect.
Greenwashing, net-zero, and the oil sands in Canada: The case of Pathways Alliance, Aronczyk et al., Energy Research & Social Science
This article examines net zero greenwashing using the case of Pathways Alliance, a coalition of six companies representing 95% of oil sands production in Canada, one of the world's largest oil reserves. Drawing on a corpus of documents (n = 183) spanning a two-year period, including materials from the coalition's advertising and public relations campaign, we evaluate Pathways Alliance's public communication for indicators of net-zero greenwashing. We identify instances of selective disclosure and omission, misalignment of claim and action, displacement of responsibility, non-credible claims, specious comparisons, nonstandard accounting, and inadequate reporting. There is also evidence that their publicity campaign extends beyond the materials usually collected and assessed for greenwashing by researchers. The article calls for further research into net zero communication and an expanded conception of greenwashing able to account for the role of digital platforms, public relations, and sector-wide alliances in strategically coordinated climate communication.
Increase in concerns about climate change following climate strikes and civil disobedience in Germany, Brehm & Gruhl, Nature Communications
Climate movements have gained momentum in recent years, aiming to create public awareness of the consequences of climate change through salient climate protests. This paper investigates whether concerns about climate change increase following demonstrative protests and confrontational acts of civil disobedience. Leveraging individual-level survey panel data from Germany, we exploit exogenous variations in the timing of climate protests relative to survey interview dates to compare climate change concerns in the days before and after a protest (N = 24,535). Following climate protests, we find increases in concerns about climate change by, on average, 1.2 percentage points. Further, we find no statistically significant evidence that concerns of any subpopulation decreased after climate protests. Lastly, the increase in concerns following protests is highest when concern levels before the protests are low.
Cyclone Jasper’s rains in the context of climate change, Emanuel, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Cyclone Jasper struck northern Queensland in mid-December, 2023, causing extensive flooding stemming from torrential rain. Many stations reported rainfall totals exceeding 1 m, and a few surpassed 2 m, possibly making Jasper the wettest tropical cyclone in Australian history. To be better prepared for events like Jasper, it is useful to estimate the probability of rainfall events of Jasper’s magnitude and how that probability is likely to evolve as climate warms. To make such estimates, we apply an advanced tropical cyclone downscaling technique to nine global climate models, generating a total of 27,000 synthetic tropical cyclones each for the climate of the recent past and that of the end of this century. We estimate that the annual probability of 1 m of rain from tropical cyclones at Cairns increases from about 0.8% at the end of the 20th century to about 2.3% at the end of the 21st, a factor of almost three. Interpolating frequency to the year 2023 suggests that the current annual probability of Jasper’s rainfall is about 1.2%, about a 50% increase over that of the year 2000. Further analysis suggests that the primary causes of increasing rainfall are stronger cyclones and a moister atmosphere.
Integrating science and the arts to deglobalise climate change adaptation, Olazabal et al., Nature Communications
Language has so far been the key resource for awareness-raising, communication, planning, negotiation, and decision-making in the socio-political arenas of adaptation. In theory, language should not be limited to describing the present but also to imagining adaptation realities and challenging them to create disruptive pathways for action. At a time when adaptation had a limited role in policy discourses, language has been very useful in creating symbolism13 through universal abstractions regarding what adaptation involves (resilience, transformation, justice) or what it is not meant to involve (risk, maladaptation or vulnerability). However, it has not been successful in shaping imaginaries of what adaptation might look like on the ground. Two significant challenges hinder the use of language as an entry point for context-specific adaptation management: (1) its abstraction and technocratisation, and (2) its lack of local meaning. We here argue that, while the current language used in adaptation is a critical resource across stages of policy, planning, awareness and education, it alone cannot generate ownership and produce relevant action at the local level. Visuals are also necessary tools.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind and Electric Vehicles, Eisenson et. al., Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University
Getting the U.S. energy system onto an environmentally sustainable track will require rapid and widespread development of wind, solar, and other renewable energy facilities; corresponding storage, transmission, and distribution infrastructure; and timely industry-specific transitions, such as battery electric vehicles replacing their combustion-engine counterparts. Broad public support exists for transformative climate policies, with a June 2023 Pew Research Center survey finding that 67% of U.S. adults prioritize developing renewable energy sources over increased fossil fuel production. However, “misinformation” and coordinated “disinformation” have at times undermined support for renewable energy projects and electric vehicles. The authors address some of the more prevalent and persistent distortions about solar energy, wind energy, and electric vehicles, with the aim of promoting a more informed discussion.
2035 and Beyond. Reconductoring With Advanced Conductors Can Accelerate the Rapid Transmission Expansion Required for a Clean Grid, Chojkiewicz et al., Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley and GridLab
The authors combines the latest energy cost data with state-of-the-art grid modeling to quantify three key elements: the cost of reconductoring with advanced conductors; the associated gains in transmission capacity; and the associated contribution to meeting transmission needs by 2035.
153 articles in 55 journals by 838 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Antarctic meteorites threatened by climate warming, Tollenaar et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01954-y
Dynamics of an extreme low temperature event over South Africa amid a warming climate, Chikoore et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100668
Greenhouse gas-induced modification of intense storms over the west African sahel through thermodynamic and dynamic processes, Zhao et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07193-3
Observations of climate change, effects
How extreme hydrological events correspond to climate extremes in the context of global warming: A case study in the Luanhe River Basin of North China, Gao et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8459
Ocean heat content in 2023, Cheng et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-024-00539-9
Precipitation extremes in 2023, Fowler et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-024-00547-9
Precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration for 1991–2020 climate normals over Africa, Lim Kam Sian et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04963-1
Soil moisture decline in China’s monsoon loess critical zone: More a result of land-use conversion than climate change, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2322127121
The increases in extreme climatic events over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and their association with atmospheric circulation changes, Liu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107410
Trends of Sediment Resuspension and Budget in Southern Lake Michigan Under Changing Wave Climate and Hydrodynamic Environment, Zhu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc020180
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A method for homogenization of complex daily mean temperature data: Application at Beijing Observatory (1915–2021) and trend analysis, Chen et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8434
A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit, Nagavciuc et al., Climate of the Past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-20-573-2024
Assessing climate impacts on slow-moving landslides in the western Alps of Piemonte: integration of monitoring techniques for detecting displacements, Narcisi et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2024.1365469
Radiative Effect of Two Contrail Cirrus Outbreaks Over Western Europe Estimated Using Geostationary Satellite Observations and Radiative Transfer Calculations, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108452
Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022, Nath et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100671
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Collapse and slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under abrupt greenhouse gas forcing, Curtis & Fedorov, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07185-3
Extremes of summer Arctic sea ice reduction investigated with a rare event algorithm, Sauer et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07160-y
Global Projection of Flood Risk With a Bivariate Framework Under 1.5–3.0°C Warming Levels, Huang et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004312
Hydro-geochemical conditions under projected climate change scenarios of Marshyangdi River, Nepal, Singh et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04890-1
Multi-model ensemble of frost risks across East Asia (1850–2100), Richards & Brimblecombe, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03723-4
Projected changes in rainfall and temperature using CMIP6 models over the Okavango River basin, southern Africa, Moses, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04950-6
Response of west pacific subtropical high to northern hemispheric warming: insights from paleo climate models, Priya et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07194-2
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Decadal Evolution of Ice-Ocean Interactions at a Large East Greenland Glacier Resolved at Fjord Scale With Downscaled Ocean Models and Observations, Wood et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107983
Does a Scale-Aware Convective Parameterization Scheme Improve the Simulation of Heavy Rainfall Events?, Park et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039407
Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes, Schumacher et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01332-8
High-resolution meteorology with climate change impacts from global climate model data using generative machine learning, Buster et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01507-9
Improving Earth System Model Selection Methodologies for Projecting Hydroclimatic Change: Case Study in the Pacific Northwest, Lybarger et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039774
Observational constraint on a feedback from supercooled clouds reduces projected warming uncertainty, Cesana et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01339-1
On the relation of CMIP6 GCMs errors at RCM driving boundary condition zones and inner region for Central Europe region, Holtanová et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3779508/v1
Cryosphere & climate change
Dynamics of the spatiotemporal velocity of glaciers on the eastern slope of Mount Gongga, China, under climate change, FU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.04.004
Fifty years of firn evolution on Grigoriev ice cap, Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, Machguth et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-1633-2024
Globally consistent estimates of high-resolution Antarctic ice mass balance and spatially-resolved glacial isostatic adjustment, Willen et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2023-119
Sea ice in 2023, Roach & Meier Holmes Stevens Swaminathan Wang Massonnet Johansson Johansson Johansson Zimin Fleury Kshitija Kopec Gavriluk Eriksson Yang Zhang, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-024-00542-0
Sea level & climate change
The Future of Developed Barrier Systems: 1. Pathways Toward Uninhabitability, Drowning, and Rebound, Anarde et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003672
The Future of Developed Barrier Systems: 2. Alongshore Complexities and Emergent Climate Change Dynamics, Anarde et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004200
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
AI-driven remote sensing enhances Mediterranean seagrass monitoring and conservation to combat climate change and anthropogenic impacts, Chowdhury et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3304270/v1
Beyond boundaries: governance considerations for climate-driven habitat shifts of highly migratory marine species across jurisdictions, Santos et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-024-00059-5
Collective effects of rising average temperatures and heat events on oviparous embryos, Ma et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.14266
Exploring the mechanisms behind swimming performance limits to ocean warming and acidification in the Atlantic king scallop, Pecten maximus, Bock et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2024.1347160
Future changes in society and climate may strongly shape wild large-herbivore faunas across Europe, Davoli & Svenning, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2023.0334
Increasing spread rates of tropical non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea, Wesselmann et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17249
Invasion risk of the currently cultivated alien flora in southern Africa is predicted to decline under climate change, Omer et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.07010
Long-Term Trends in the Distribution of Ocean Chlorophyll, Zhai et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106577
Plant responses to changing rainfall frequency and intensity, Feldman et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00534-0
Precipitation and relative humidity favours tree growth while air temperature and relative humidity respectively drive winter stem shrinkage and expansion, Oogathoo et al., Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.4629007
Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic range of the Mediterranean relict tree Liquidambar orientalis Mill, Kenar, Nordic Journal of Botany 10.1111/njb.04250
Predicting the responses of European grassland communities to climate and land cover change, Liu & Van Meerbeek, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2023.0335
Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types, Allen et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rstb.2023.0011
Projected ocean temperatures impair key proteins used in vision of octopus hatchlings, Hua et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17255
Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds, Zurell et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rstb.2023.0013
Seasonality and response of ocean acidification and hypoxia to major environmental anomalies in the southern Salish Sea, North America (2014–2018), Alin et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-181
Simulated Abrupt Shifts in Aerobic Habitats of Marine Species in the Past, Present, and Future, Fröb et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004141
Temperature optima of a natural diatom population increases as global warming proceeds, Hattich et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01981-9
Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene, Ordonez et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2023.0022
Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change, Alsos et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rstb.2023.0017
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Aircraft-based mass balance estimate of methane emissions from offshore gas facilities in the southern North Sea, Pühl et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-826
Anthropogenic impacts on mud and organic carbon cycling, Bianchi et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01405-5
Atmospheric oxygen as a tracer for fossil fuel carbon dioxide: a sensitivity study in the UK, Chawner et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-4231-2024
Global carbon emissions in 2023, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-024-00532-2
High-resolution spatial patterns and drivers of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide fluxes in the tundra, Virkkala et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-61
How urbanization shapes the ecosystem carbon sink of vegetation in China: A spatiotemporal analysis of direct and indirect effects, Wang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101896
Methane Distribution, Production, and Emission in the Western North Pacific, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020482
Real-world particulate, GHG, and gaseous toxic emissions from heavy-duty diesel and natural gas vehicles, Toumasatos et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120512
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The African Regional Greenhouse Gases Budget (2010–2019), Ernst et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb008016
The Net GHG Balance and Budget of the Permafrost Region (2000–2020) From Ecosystem Flux Upscaling, Ramage et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007953
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Assessing the potential for CO2 storage in saline aquifers in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities, Weber et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2265
Estimating carbon sequestration potential and optimizing management strategies for Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys pubescens) forests using machine learning, Lv et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1338795
Quantifying soil organic carbon after biochar application: how to avoid (the risk of) counting CDR twice?, Rathnayake et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1343516
Decarbonization
Bringing light, connectivity and waste to local communities: A study of the post-consumption value chain for off-grid solar devices in Kenya, Majale et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103516
Do laundry when the sun shines: Factors that promote loadshifting in Dutch households with solar panels, Hubert et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103514
GIS-based suitability mapping for offshore and onshore wind energy in the United Arab Emirates, Gherboudj, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101439
The electric vehicle transition: A blessing or a curse for improving extractive industries and mineral supply chains?, Boateng & Klopp, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103541
Geoengineering climate
Moral hazards and solar radiation management: Evidence from a large-scale online experiment, Schoenegger & Mintz-Woo, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102288
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Under the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Scenario, Morrison et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004151
The politics of assembling pilots: Policy networks and selection strategies in top-down climate experimentation, Yang & Lo, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103539
Black carbon
Direct radiative forcing of light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols in China, Yang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107396
Aerosols
Effects of emission reductions on major anthropogenic aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions in East Asia in winter during 2007–2020, Hu et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120499
Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes, Schumacher et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01332-8
Sensitivity of global direct aerosol shortwave radiative forcing to uncertainties in aerosol optical properties, Elsey et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-4065-2024
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate change in outskirts of Kathmandu Valley: local perception and narratives, Gharti Magar et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06473-9
Gaslighting Europe: Russia's energy disinformation in the Czech Republic, Pali?ková & ?ernoch, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103497
Greenwashing, net-zero, and the oil sands in Canada: The case of Pathways Alliance, Aronczyk et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103502
Increase in concerns about climate change following climate strikes and civil disobedience in Germany, Brehm & Gruhl, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-46477-4
Proud to limit the damage: Negatively framed eco-ratings motivate green intentions through anticipated pride, Gorissen et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102290
Rectifying misinformation on the climate intervention potential of ocean afforestation, Smetacek et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47134-6
Reply to: Rectifying misinformation on the climate intervention potential of ocean afforestation, Bach et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47135-5
The role of tertiary education on CO2 emissions: evidence from 151 countries, Lee et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04828-7
Transmitting the Transition in a Moment of Climate Crisis: An Analysis of Intermediaries’ Communication Practices, Wuebben et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2339271
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields and Exploring Adaptation Strategies in Northeast China, Xu et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004063
Enhancing crop yields and farm income through climate-smart agricultural practices in Eastern India, Tanti et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-024-10122-8
Global warming determines future increase in compound dry and hot days within wheat growing seasons worldwide, He et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3220211/v1
Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937
Socioeconomic determinants of modern climate change adaptation of small-scale vegetable farmers in Bohlabela District, Mpumalanga Province, Maiwashe Tagwi & Khoza, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2023.1039915
Vulnerability and resilience in the face of climate changes in Senegal's drylands: measurement at the household level and determinant assessment, Yessoufou et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1330025
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Change in the distribution of heavy 1 h precipitation due to temperature changes in measured values, model reanalyses and model simulations of future climate, Sokol et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107395
Climate change impacts on evapotranspiration in Brazil: a multi-model assessment, Monteiro et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04942-6
Cyclone Jasper’s rains in the context of climate change, Emanuel, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2400292121
Diverging hydrological sensitivity among tropical basins, He et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01982-8
How extreme hydrological events correspond to climate extremes in the context of global warming: A case study in the Luanhe River Basin of North China, Gao et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8459
Nature-based solutions potential for flood risk reduction under extreme rainfall events, Manes et al., Ambio 10.1007/s13280-024-02005-8
Projecting drought trends and hot spots across Iran, Khoorani et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06574-5
The future is transient: Barriers and opportunities for improved UK water resource climate change assessments using the enhanced Future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) climate service products, Durant et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.69
Climate change economics
Exploring the link between CO2 emissions, health expenditure, and economic growth in Türkiye: evidence from the ARDL model, Çobano?ullar?, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-024-04835-8
Reducing the cost of capital through international climate finance to accelerate the renewable energy transition in developing countries, Briera & Lefèvre, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114104
Social Costs of Methane and Carbon Dioxide in a Tipping Climate, Wiskich, Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-024-00864-z
Unlocking climate finance for social protection: an analysis of the Green Climate Fund, Aleksandrova et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2338817
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Changing networks of power: A theoretical approach to the study of capitalized power in contemporary energy transitions, Levi & Israel, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103495
Climate action from a gender perspective: A systematic review of the impact of climate policies on inequality, Alonso-Epelde et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103511
Climate true-cost analysis of industrial goods and its regulatory implications on value chains and global competition, Schlipf et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13469
Does corruption shape attitudes towards carbon taxes? Experimental evidence from Mexico and Sweden, Davidovic, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103493
Effectiveness of policies for electric commercial vehicle adoption and emission reduction in the logistics industry, Yang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114116
Energy systems for Brazil's Amazon: Could renewable energy improve Indigenous livelihoods and save forest ecosystems?, Hampl, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103491
Energy, material, and resource efficiency for industrial decarbonization: A systematic review of sociotechnical systems, technological innovations, and policy options, Kim et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103521
Explaining energy transition: A systemic social mechanisms approach illustrated with the examples of Germany and Poland, Weisenfeld & Rollert, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103512
Financially-constrained solar development: A comparative analysis of urban fabrics and scalar expression in Portugal and Rajasthan, Sareen, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103503
From Fukushima to fossil fuels: Carbon emissions, climate narratives, and grassroots movements in Japan's energy transition, Thiri & Borsi, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103520
Global urbanization and ruralization lessons of clean energy access gap, Alola, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114101
Greenhouse gas neutrality: A qualitative analysis of perceived sustainability tensions in the German chemical industry, Heck et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103525
Identifying and analysing important model assumptions: Combining techno-economic and political feasibility of deep decarbonisation pathways in Norway, Inderberg et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103496
Increasing retrofit device adoption in social housing: Evidence from two field experiments in Belgium, Bielig et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102284
Industrial process heat decarbonization: A user-centric perspective, McMillan & Wachs, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103505
Labour implications of the net-zero transition and clean energy exports in Australia, McCoy et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103506
Land acquisition, renewable energy development, and livelihood transformation in rural Kenya: The case of the Kipeto wind energy project, NDI, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103530
Land use and Europe’s renewable energy transition: identifying low-conflict areas for wind and solar development, Kiesecker et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1355508
Network dynamics of solar PV adoption: Reconsidering flat tax-credits and influencer seeding for inclusive renewable energy access in Albany county, New York, Sundaram et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103518
People of the sun: Local resistance and solar energy (in)justice in southern Portugal, Brás et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103529
Perceptions of competing agendas in carbon neutrality policies in Portugal: Adverse impacts on vulnerable population groups, Mahoney et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103509
Research on China’s regional carbon quota allocation based on the entropy weight-TOPSIS method and CRITIC-VIKOR model, Zhang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04804-1
Rethinking justice as recognition in energy transitions and planned coal phase-out in Poland, Tarasova, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103507
Rethinking justice as recognition in energy transitions and planned coal phase-out in Poland, Tarasova, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103507
Rural energy transition in the context of rural revitalization and carbon neutrality: improved multi-criteria-based decision-making, Li et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10128-2
Significant Reduction of Unequal Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by Achieving the Carbon Neutrality, Oh et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.170542258.83457109/v1
Socio-economic constraints to low-carbon transitions: insights from Kazakhstan’s Emissions Trading Scheme, Howie & Akmetov, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2337178
Struggles over solar in the United States: Oppositional coalitions and the limits of territorial resentment, Jacroux & Freshour, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103532
Towards just transition: Tackling inequity and structural causes of vulnerability in key environment, health and climate related policies in Finland, Tikkakoski et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103736
Turning a groundswell of climate action into ground rules for net zero, Hale et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01967-7
Understanding the science-policy interface in urban climate governance from a co-production perspective: Insights from the cases of Hamburg and São Paulo, Schmidt et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103750
Untangling the forces behind carbon emissions in China's industrial sector - A pre and post 12th energy climate plan analysis, Yasmeen et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101895
“The ketchup effect”: Challenges in reconciling growth and justice in Northern Sweden's green transition, Garbis et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103537
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate change resilience strategies for safeguarding sustainable tourism in Zimbabwe, Chiwaridzo & Dzingirai, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04885-y
Evaluating policy coherence and integration for adaptation: the case of EU policies and Arctic cross-border climate change impacts, Kivimaa et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2337168
Harnessing climate services to support community resilience planning: lessons learned from a community-engaged approach to assessing NOAA’s National Water Model, Raub et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1291165
Integrating science and the arts to deglobalise climate change adaptation, Olazabal et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47400-7
Meta-analysis indicates better climate adaptation and mitigation performance of hybrid engineering-natural coastal defence measures, Huynh et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-46970-w
Plan integration for urban extreme heat: Evaluating the impacts of plans at multiple scales in Tokyo, Japan, Yu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101888
Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors, Verschuur et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000331
Towards enhanced climate change adaptation: using traditional ecological knowledge to understand the environmental effects of urban growth in Abuja, Nigeria, Inkani et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04819-8
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate change dominates the increasing exposure of global population to compound heatwave and humidity extremes in the future, Wei et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07199-x
Climate change exacerbates the compounding of heat stress and flooding in the mid-latitudes, Treppiedi et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8453
How do energy efficiency measures affect the risk of summertime overheating and cold discomfort? Evidence from English homes, Lomas et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114108
Climate change impacts on human culture
Capacity of the U.S. federal system for cultural heritage to meet challenges of climate change, Rockman, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2317158121
Not a dream wedding: the hidden nexus between gender discrimination, climate change and child marriage, Pastén et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04813-0
Other
Persistent warming and anomalous biogeochemical signatures observed in the Northern Tropical Pacific Ocean during 2013–2020, Tian & Zhang, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07184-4
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Chronicling the climate of 2023, , Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-024-00553-x
Climate change and biodiversity loss: new territories for financial authorities, Chenet, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101449
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
A Decade of Growth in Solar and Wind Power: Trends Across the U.S, Climate Central
America’s capacity to generate carbon-free electricity grew during 2023 — part of a decade-long growth trend for renewable energy. Solar and wind account for more of our nation’s energy mix than ever before. The authors analyzed historical data on solar and wind energy over 10 years, from 2014 to 2023. Their analysis shows that the amount of electricity produced from solar and wind power increased across the U.S. The U.S. generated 238,121 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electricity from solar in 2023 — more than eight times the amount generated a decade earlier in 2014. Wind power has more than doubled this decade, with 425,325 GWh coming from wind installations across the country in 2023. Together, these two renewable energy sources generated enough electricity in 2023 to power the equivalent of more than 61 million average American homes. The most solar power generation came from California (68,816 GWh) and Texas (31,739 GWh) in 2023. Texas also led the country in power generated from wind (119,836 GWh).
Renewables 2024 Global Status Report, Couzin et al., REN21
In 2023, global additions to renewable power capacity increased by an estimated 36% to reach 473 GW, a new record for the 22nd consecutive year. At the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai, 130 countries pledged to triple renewable energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. As countries reshaped trade and industrial policies in 2023, the United States launched more than 250 clean energy manufacturing projects following the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act, and the European Union proposed the Net-Zero Industry Act and launched the first phase of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Employment in the renewables sector increased by 8% in 2022 to reach 13.7 million jobs. The number of people lacking electricity access globally fell from 756 million in 2022 to 745 million in 2023.
Corporate Climate Risk: Measurements and Responses, Li et al., Multiple
The authors conduct a textual analysis of earnings call transcripts to quantify climate risk exposure at the firm level. We construct dictionaries that measure physical and transition climate risks separately and identify firms that proactively respond to climate risks. The validation analysis shows that the measures capture firm-level variations in respective climate risk exposure. Firms facing high transition risk, especially those that do not proactively respond, have been valued at a discount in recent years as aggregate investor attention to climate-related issues has been increasing. The authors document differences in how firms respond through investment, green innovation, and employment when facing high climate risk exposure.
Community-Driven Relocation. Recommendations for the U.S. Gulf Coast Region and Beyond, Barnes et al., National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
As disaster recovery costs escalate, state and local governments cannot keep up, while federal recovery programs fall short of state requests for assistance. As households struggle to recover from one storm before the next one hits, families experience chronic stress with few opportunities for respite. Stress exacerbates other preexisting health conditions even as exposure to flooding and extreme heat aggravate those same conditions. These circumstances present an untenable long-term cycle of cumulative, compounding, and cascading risks, markedly increasing vulnerability. Addressing these growing challenges requires new ways of planning in anticipation of disasters and their growing potential for displacement. While disaster displacement is not a new phenomenon, the rapid escalation of climate-related disasters in the Gulf increases the urgency to develop pre-disaster policies to mitigate displacement and decrease suffering.
More Chilling Than Ever. Tackling Europe’s ongoing illegal trade in HFC climate super pollutants, Environemntal Investigation Agency
Significant levels of trafficking persist for hydrofluorocarbon (HFC), despite the worsening climate emergency. Commonly used in refrigeration and air-conditioning, HFCs are being phased out under the European Union (EU) F-gas Regulation. Driven by high profits and weak law enforcement, organized criminals are closely associated with this illicit trade. Traders are routing illegal HFC, sourced primarily in Türkiye and China, from Europe’s edge – Bulgaria – across the continent to the likes of Greece, Germany, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Traders are becoming more sophisticated and adapting their tactics to elude detection, for example by avoiding banned disposable cylinders and disguising HFCs as less regulated hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) refrigerant alternatives.
The Carbon Majors Database, InfluenceMap
The Carbon Majors database traces 1,421 GtCO2e of cumulative historical emissions from 1854 through 2022 to 122 industrial producers, the CO2 portion of which is equivalent to 72% of global fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions since 1751. Over 70% of these global CO2 emissions historically can be attributed to just 78 corporate and state producing entities. Carbon Majors is a database of historic production data from 122 of the world’s largest oil, gas, coal, and cement producers. These data are used to quantify the direct production-linked operational emissions and emissions from the combustion of marketed products that can be attributed to these entities. The research shows that there are no leading regions when it comes to emissions reductions. Asia and the Middle East stand out as the regions associated with the highest emissions increases, alongside companies from Africa, Europe, and South America. North America is the only region to buck this trend, with a slim majority of companies linked to decreasing emissions.
Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind and Electric Vehicles, Eisenson et. al., Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University
Getting the U.S. energy system onto an environmentally sustainable track will require rapid and widespread development of wind, solar, and other renewable energy facilities; corresponding storage, transmission, and distribution infrastructure; and timely industry-specific transitions, such as battery electric vehicles replacing their combustion-engine counterparts. Broad public support exists for transformative climate policies, with a June 2023 Pew Research Center survey finding that 67% of U.S. adults prioritize developing renewable energy sources over increased fossil fuel production. However, “misinformation” and coordinated “disinformation” have at times undermined support for renewable energy projects and electric vehicles. The authors address some of the more prevalent and persistent distortions about solar energy, wind energy, and electric vehicles, with the aim of promoting a more informed discussion.
Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100), Baggu et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory
The authors present a comprehensive analysis based on extensive stakeholder input of possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. The authors defined and modeled multiple pathways for decision makers to consider for Puerto Rico to achieve its energy goals, driven by community priorities and perspectives.
2035 and Beyond. Reconductoring With Advanced Conductors Can Accelerate the Rapid Transmission Expansion Required for a Clean Grid, Chojkiewicz et al., Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley and GridLab
The authors combines the latest energy cost data with state-of-the-art grid modeling to quantify three key elements: the cost of reconductoring with advanced conductors; the associated gains in transmission capacity; and the associated contribution to meeting transmission needs by 2035.
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"Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind and Electric Vehicles, Eisenson et. al., Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University."
Very interesting, informative and useful resource. Thanks!