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DSL at 01:14 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
But, Tom, what Dana69 says looks interesting. It's got numbers, and calculations, and references to laws. And it has an attempt to stop dialogue at the end of it--the hallmark of a good faux skeptic. -
Tom Curtis at 01:06 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Dana69 @104, I'll grant you that it is a novel approach. To bad that you make such fundamental errors. The most important error is that there is no requirement that the heat be radiated away. In fact, most of the heat will be carried away by collisions with other molecules. Therefore your assumption that be comparing the heat content of molecules you can determine the relative contribution to the Outgoing Long wave Radiation, and hence the overall temperature of the Earth is a simple non sequitur. In fact, the radiation of IR radiation by each gas is a direct function of it temperature, emissivity and concentration, and nothing else. The heat capacity determines how long it takes for the gas to heat, or cool given a particular flow of heat. Indirectly it helps determine the lapse rate in the troposphere. But beyond those two factors is has no further bearing on the greenhouse effect. Finally, those so equipped can easily determine the absurdity of Dana69's suggestion. The need merely direct an IR camera at a cup of water as it is first heated then cooled. They will find that as it warms (and hence is absorbing more energy than it give of) it radiates more, whereas when it cools (and hence is giving of more energy than it absorbs) it radiates less. If you compare the IR flux measured using the camera, you will find the same flux for a given temperature regardless of whether it is warming or cooling. -
CBDunkerson at 00:56 AM on 24 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
It should also be noted that Michaels' methodology of just taking the difference between start and end points, rather than the trend over the period, is exceedingly poor practice for anything as noisy as climate. Shift the start and end points a year or two and you can get radically different results. Obviously, this is a minor issue compared to using a data set bearing no resemblance to observations, but it is worth pointing out that he wouldn't have gotten a reliable result even if he were using the right data. -
Dana69 at 00:40 AM on 24 January 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/spesif...d_159.html Gas or Vapor kJ/kg Air 0.287 Carbon dioxide 0.189 Water Vapor 0.462 Steam 1 psia. 120 – 600 oF That’s what it takes to change the temperature 1 degree K. When CO2 changes from 1 to -1 C, a change of 2 degrees C, it radiates 2(0.189 kJ/kg) = 0.378 . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enthalpy_of_vaporization When water vapor changes from 1 to -1 (and condenses) it radiates 2257 kj/kg + 2(0.462 kJ/kg) = 2257.853776 kJ/kg. It does this every single time you see a cloud. But CO2 has no phase change so it carries no heat – the numbers: All gases at the same temperature have the same number of molecules per unit volume. (Avogadro) Water, being light, masses 18g/mole and CO2 masses 44 g/mole Using 1 mole of air, just to make math easy: We lowball the water in the atmosphere at 1% of the molecules So, in a mole of atmosphere, we have 0.01 moles of water = 0.18g now we highball the CO2 at 500ppm which is 0.0005, or 1/2000 of a mole of CO2. 1/2000 * 44g/mole = 0.000484 moles of CO2 = 0.021296g So in our mole of air with but 1% H2O and a generous 500ppm CO2- the water condensing radiates 0.18g * 2257.853776 kJ/kg = 406.41367968 J while the CO2 radiates 0.021296g * 0.378 kJ/kg = 0.008049888 J the ratio of 0.008049888/406.41367968 = .00001980712855516645290496438242332 or as much to say that water vapor in the example carries 50486.873814890343815963650674393 times more heat than the CO2 does. And that’s just rain. If it turns to snow- multiply by 5-6. Meanwhile, Venus is a ball of active volcanoes with a dry heat pump to radiate it poorly. That is why Earth’s climate doesn’t resemble that of Venus. Forget about CO2.Moderator Response: [JH] "Dana69" is not an SkS author. -
Rob Painting at 23:49 PM on 23 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
Indeed Yvan, the re-growth of forests in the former USSR is a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide too. -
Tom Dayton at 23:46 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Dr. Johnson responded to my email about the teen's reaction to Dr. Johnson's arguments, and my suggestion that Skeptical Science's Arguments pages fit the teen's bottom line request for convincing evidence:Hi, Thanks so much for your note. It doesn't come across in the short version of the interview aired, but I actually had a talk with Ira and Erin for an hour and a half. I did recommend this website to her as one of the best out there to see the evidence. When we started the interview, her perspective was "Global warming isn't happening, and the scientists are all on the make". When we ended, she got to "Ok, well maybe it is happening, but I'm not sure why". To me, that felt like a minor victory - with more time, and a chance for her to investigate quality resources herself, there's a chance she'll get there. I'm really glad I did this interview - learned a lot from it, and have enjoyed getting emails out of the blue from people I don't know, sharing their thoughts.
Dr. Johnson later wrote regarding Skeptical Science:I think very highly of it, and use it when I'm working with teachers. Are you aware of our work re climate change professional development for teachers? We also have extensive collections on climate change on the Windows to the Universe website, which gets about 14 million visits annually. I've thought of being in touch with the Skeptical Science group, but haven't as of yet.
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Yvan Dutil at 23:45 PM on 23 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
A key point,that Hansen could not have predicted is the collapse of the USSR. Certainly this has reduced the GHG gas emissions by a large factor for at least a decade. -
Rob Painting at 21:39 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Bernard J - wasn't there also some white possums in Queensland that went extinct due to an extreme heatwave? IIRC they were restricted to one particular mountain, and started dropping dead in their thousands when it got too hot. Then again I could be mixing up several papers in my jumbled collection. -
scaddenp at 19:54 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Well the most basic equations, verifiable from satellite and ground measurements would be the RTEs, for which Ramanathan and Coakley 1978 would be the starting point. -
Rob Painting at 19:45 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Pirate - "Nothing like a bit of honesty, eh?" Dude, you're not addressing a fake-skeptic. I did tell you I've accumulated a stackload of peer-reviewed papers, there's no "gotcha!" with me I'm afraid. Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming - Thomas (2006) states: ".......However, recent papers on butterflies and frogs now show that population-level and species-level extinctions are occurring. The relative lack of previous information about range retractions and extinctions appears to stem, at least partly, from a failure to survey the distributions of species at sufficiently fine resolution to detect declines, and from a failure to attribute such declines to climate change. The new evidence suggests that climate-driven extinctions and range retractions are already widespread" Pirate -"What is the "warming spreading bacteria" you're referring to? What species of frogs are gone from that bacteria" Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming - Pounds (2006) "As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable." Shucks, the golden toad probably did go extinct as a result of global warming after all. Just like I said. Also, ask your students to research the American Pika (just to keep it relevant to them). That ain't going to be around much longer. And you could also get them to research all the species that went extinct from previous (natural) global warming episodes too. Mind you this would require research, something you don't appear well-versed in. -
Bernard J. at 19:04 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Don't quote me on this, but I don't believe any species have gone extinct from it. Oddly enough the fungus was spread by researchers investigating population declines.
Sorry, but I have to quote you on this, as off-topic as it is. There are a number of Australian anuran species whose extinctions are attributable to chytrid, even though the fungus's spread and virulence was such that it's really only possible to establish a post hoc, prima facie case. A couple of species of Taudactylus and both Rheobatrachus are almost certainly victims of chytrid, and I'd peg at least half of the recently extinct Litoria to the fungus as well. And this is apart from the worrying number of extant but endangered Australian species directly suffering from the impact of chytrid. The fungus works fast, and spreads inexorably. I've watched seemingly healthy Litoria citropa fall dead from streamside vegetation, having suddeningly succumbed from the fungus. So it's wrong to say that the fungus is not an extinction agent. It's also wrong to say that the fungus was spread by investigators studying declines. I suspect that it certainly was spread - in part - by investigators studying the frogs, but by the time that they were seriously investigating the disease-related declines there were decontamination protocols in place. The initial spreading probably occurred when the species were being studied in order to understand their autecologies, and in the case of Rheobatrachus, the genus's remarkable brooding physiology. This response to apiratelooksat50 might be pedantry, but it's important to nip the heresay in the bud. Here endeth the lesson. -
Philippe Chantreau at 18:55 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
The request of a set of equation for validation of the theory is disingenuous. Equations from quantum theory are needed to calculate the radiative forcing of CO2. The radiative forcing is a direct consequence of quantum laws, those laws seemingly so dear to Patonomics. The only way that heat will not build up in the atmosphere with added GH is if quantum laws somehow do not hold. Not likely. These calculations have been done by LBLRTM and MODTRAN. The results of the calculations closely match observations. Then, there is all the fluid dynamics equations necessary to model atmospheric circulation, and ocean circulation for AOGCMs. And then there is more, as climate science is complex. That is simply too much to list in a setting like this. It would require an entire team with varied areas of expertise. However, it is in fact possible to do so. It's just not really worth bothering; what would the point? to make a point. Feh... I affirm that quantum theory alone is enough to show witout any doubt whatsoever that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will increase the heat content of the whole atmoshere/ocean system. The only possibility that it would be otherwise would reside with the existence, as yet uncovered, of a mechanism that would allow the extra heat to be radiated out to space immediately. Lindzen's hypothesis has not panned out so well. I find Patonomics' contribution so far to be of little value and I would encourage all to get back to the topic (I know, I just indulge for a few paragraphs myself). -
Tom Curtis at 18:48 PM on 23 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
owl905 @4, while happy to cause you amusement, I suggest that your paring back a nuanced statement to just one element, thereby misrepresenting what I wrote, means you need to seriously invest in improving your reading skills. -
OPatrick at 18:36 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Whilst I'm loathe to prolong the piratical diversion I'll just briefly suggest that a sensible response to your students would be to explain the complexity of the impacts we are having and therefore the inappropriateness of ascribing single causes to extinctions in individual cases, whilst emphasising the importance of understanding trends in an historical context. And perhaps a good resource would be this, from the Royal Society: http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1558/3593.full -
owl905 at 18:28 PM on 23 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
@Tom Curtis - your reflection that it was a worst case, based on the expectations and outcomes of the CFC treaties, produced a guffaw'd laughter here. Kyoto stands as an example that treaties and signatures and commitments 'ain't necessarily so'. GHG emissions have been running 30% above the so-called 'worst case'. And even that's not a 'worst case', but it isn't a world away from Hansen's description of 'business as usual'. It was not, and is not, a useful description for Scenario A. Hansen's words made more sense - to frame it as a 'business-as-usual' non-response projection. -
Kevin C at 18:25 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Actually, this discussion has some relevance NCSE since it provides an interesting case study in one of the techniques the disinformation movement uses to manufacture doubt. I guess the form would is: - Raise a long term impact and demand short term evidence of the impact (a special-case of hiding the signal in the noise). - Attempts to point out the above would normally be greeted with the response 'why are you trying to avoid the issue?' (I know nothing about extinctions, and they are indeed off topic. But I wonder if there is mileage in compiling a list of distraction strategies in a similar form to the one above?) -
Tom Curtis at 18:20 PM on 23 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
Owl905 @1, while I obviously, and copiously disagree with your first paragraph, I want to emphasize that your second paragraph is spot on. While it is not the only issue regarding Michaels testimony and subsequent defense, it is the main issue. IMO, that Michaels testimony fraudulently presented the data is so open and shut a case, it makes a very simple test of who is guided by ideology, and who by desire for truth among so called "skeptics". If somebody cannot bring themselves to recognize that Michaels either committed scientific fraud, or at a minimum perjured himself before Congress, then there is no desire for truth in their examination of climate change issues. -
owl905 at 18:14 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Patonic built an off-topic distraction about the philosophy of science. He is poorly versed in AGW, but very well versed in philosophy 101 and knowing how to manipulate an internet thread. Basically he trashed a very important topic, and redirected it to where what he knows is more important than what others know. Example- the TAR is out-of-date. ... AR4 states outright that the definition of radiative forcing from the TAR is retained: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-2.html He walked right by the best suggestion - go to the link and start with 'the Discovery of Global Warming'. He ignored the response where he could study a survey of CO2 properties. -
Tom Curtis at 18:14 PM on 23 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
owl905 @1, Hansen's scenario A was definitely a "worst case" scenario. Trivially it is the worst case of the scenarios shown. More importantly, it is, and was described by Hansen as necessarily "... on the high side of reality", at least in the long run. The later is a qualification not made by Hansen, but which I am sure he would (and would have) agreed with. Therefore, in the long run it is a worse, than worse case scenario. In the short term it is possible that worse scenarios could have occurred after 1988, but unlikely. A worse short term case would have required growth rates in GHG emissions to exceed the record levels of the 1980's, not merely retain them as is done in scenario A. Indeed, at the time of his testimony, it was known that at least some GHG emissions where likely to reduce in the near future, as the Vienna Convention for the protection of the Ozone Layer, a precursor to the Montreal Protocol, banning the use of CFC's had been negotiated, and was open to signature as of September 1987. Finally, Business As Usual is a possible descriptor of Scenario A, but only if BAU means no major economic, hiccups, and no reductions in emissions of GHG for reasons other than planned reductions to combat global warming. The first is implausible in the extreme, as we well know post Global Financial Crisis. The second was known to be probably false in 1988, not just because of the Vienna Convention, but also because the ongoing reduction of British coal mining under the control of the Conservative Party from 1984-1992. There were good reasons for Hansen to describe Scenario B as "perhaps the most plausible of the three cases" in 1988. There is certainly also good reason to consider it as the BAU scenario, although as noted, scenario A also has a claim to that title. Of course, Hansen could not anticipate the collapse of the Soviet Block, which meant that in the event, even his most optimistic scenario was on the high side of reality over the period 1988-1998. -
owl905 at 17:37 PM on 23 January 2012Patrick Michaels Continues to Distort Hansen 1988, Part 1
Business-as-usual is the best description for Scenario A. There's no accuracy in calling it 'worst-case' - because it wasn't then and isn't now. Michaels' egregious distortion, a criminal act by any other name, was presenting Hanson's work to Congress with any single future line. The naming of it is minor semantics compared to the rewrite of Hansen's perspective. The alteration of removing Hanson's recognition of mega-trend variables is a disgusting smear so serious that Michaels should be held accountable for lying to Congress along the precedence set by the Barry Bonds testimony. Michaels took a strawman, and presented it to Congress as the work of James Hansen. Of course he wants the discussion to focus on the merits of his choice - so attention is diverted from his real magic trick. -
The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
apiratelooksat50 - Back to the topic at hand: Are you claiming (due to your inability to identify specific species at risk/extinct due to climate change, despite numerous examples of amphibian extinction, high altitude flora, polar bears, etc) that climate change is not worth teaching in the classroom? Or is there some other point to your side-track discussion? Because this thread is about teaching climate change and the science behind it. And you are running well off topic. -
apiratelooksat50 at 16:40 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
KR at 13 I'm referring to the NCSE website statement. Give me a list of modern species that are extinct due to climate change. I'm not saying climate change is not a problem. Rapid environmental changes are stressors on organisms. That's a basic fact that I teach. -
apiratelooksat50 at 16:34 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Rob at 11 and 12 The chytrid fungus is responsible for the demise of many amphibians worldwide including the Golden Frog. Don't quote me on this, but I don't believe any species have gone extinct from it. Oddly enough the fungus was spread by researchers investigating population declines. What is the "warming spreading bacteria" you're referring to? What species of frogs are gone from that bacteria, and what are the lizard species disappearing due to global warming? Nothing like a bit of honesty, eh? -
The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
apiratelooksat50- For a more specific example, you might Google "amphibian extinction climate change". But more seriously, look at the historic record - how do extinction numbers vary with changes in the environment? Permian–Triassic extinction event? PETM? Younger Dryas impact? And if you don't recognize that fast changes in the environment relate rather directly to extinction rates, you're not doing your homework. And - you are not doing a great job of teaching your students how to look at the data. -
apiratelooksat50 at 16:20 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
KR at 8 I previously did what you suggested and could not find a list of species. Your search turned up either past extinctions or projections/risks. Chris G at 9 I mean currently just like in Climate Change 101. Please follow the link to the NCSE site and read the first bullet under Climate Change 101. -
John Hartz at 16:15 PM on 23 January 2012National (US) Strategy Proposed to Respond to Climate Change’s Impacts on Fish, Wildlife, Plants
@Stevo #1: National environmental organizations would be a good source of information about how Congressional actions will impact federal fish and wildlife agencies. For starters, check out the website of the National Wildlife Federation. -
Rob Painting at 15:58 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Pirate - .....and I tell my students that climate change has led to the "extinction of plant and animal species", and they ask me to list the species - what do I say? What about? "I haven't actually bothered to research the topic." Nothing like a bit of honesty. -
Rob Painting at 15:54 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Wasn't there a golden frog is Central America that went extinct because it became too warm? I know a truckload of lizards are disappearing from the tropics quicksmart as a result global warming, and some frog species are disappearing as a result of warming spreading bacteria into populations with no natural resistance. Actually the extinction of species in the tropics is alarming - there's no other apt description for it. The trouble is humans extinguish plants and animals in so many different ways, not only by making it too warm. I've a stackload of papers of extinctions and global warming, but have yet to get to writing about them. One day...... -
Albatross at 15:51 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
DSL @50, I second your suggestion of Spencer Weart's book. But this is all off topic. If it was patonomics's goal to derail the thread, s/he certainly is trying very hard. They are also, despite trying to create that impression, not amendable to reason or compelling evidence. The independent research papers cited provide a very consistent and coherent picture, and that is clearly causing some angst amongst the "skeptics". If people want to debate the philosophy behind AGW, or other aspects then please take them to the relevant threads. This thread is to discuss the "review the results of these various studies, and a few others which we have not previously examined, to see what the scientific literature and data have to say about exactly what is causing global warming.". So can we stick to that please. Surely is not to much to ask? -
Chris G at 15:49 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Pirate, I'm thinking you should also clarify whether you mean climate change within the last 100 years, or climate change in paleohistory. -
The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
apiratelooksat50 - I would suggest simply looking at something like this, and doing the requisite reading. -
apiratelooksat50 at 15:36 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
If I'm using Climate Change 101 as a resource for teaching, and I tell my students that climate change has led to the "extinction of plant and animal species", and they ask me to list the species - what do I say? -
muoncounter at 15:33 PM on 23 January 2012The National Center for Science Education defends climate science in high schools
Aargh! Their link to SkS used to be above their RealClimate link. -
National (US) Strategy Proposed to Respond to Climate Change’s Impacts on Fish, Wildlife, Plants
Stevo - The current political situation in the US is, of course, in flux (as always). The Republicans are aiming to remove/emasculate the EPA and anything else that interferes with unrestrained business, the Democrats are less enamored with those ideas - deadlock ensues. Based upon personal observations (and only that, sad to say, although where I live [DC] national politics is also local politics), I don't expect major changes. The Democrats won't make major concessions, the Republicans will continue to wave the issue but not push it as long as they get other items instead, politics will continue. [My apologies for the political viewpoints here - but that's what was queried... if this entire conversation gets moderated, I won't be terribly surprised.] -
Stevo at 15:21 PM on 23 January 2012National (US) Strategy Proposed to Respond to Climate Change’s Impacts on Fish, Wildlife, Plants
Considering how the idea of national parks was pioneered by the USA I find it disturbing that there are currently threats to abolish the EPA. Could any of our American readers advise just how much danger various fish and wildlife agencies are in at this point in time? -
skywatcher at 15:19 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
#61: You request validation, but what do you wish validation of? 1: That the Earth's temperature is rising, according to all major temperature records? 2: That the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise rapidly, and that the CO2 increase is isotopically identifiable as being fossil fuel-derived? 3: The fundamental theoretical and experimental basis for CO2, water vapour and some other gases being radiatively active (see Spencer Weart for a history going back 150 years)? 4: The direct observations of the CO2 greenhouse effect (e.g. Harries et al 2001, Philipona)? 5: The observations that the temperature rise is consistent with the enhanced greenhouse effect (nights warming faster than days, stratosphere cooling etc). It is inconsistent with a warming from other sources. Do you not trust the above observations or the century-old theoretical basis? If not, why not? What more validation do you need? -
TOP at 15:18 PM on 23 January 2012How do Climate Models Work?
For the technically minded Global climate model on wikipedia.org.
sidd
I found some mention of adaptive meshing in some of the models named in the graphic. You probably need to read through the model documentation. -
A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
patonomics - I would point you towards the simplified RealCliate overview, as well as The Discovery of Global Warming. Multiple observations, multiple reinforcing fingerprints of anthropogenic warming (as opposed to solar, cosmic ray, leprechauns, etc.), basics in pure science such as spectroscopy, >120 years of simple physics pointing to the increased greenhouse effect, on and on and ... If you want a simple equation (and apparently you are looking for a shrink-wrapped simplification), I would suggest this. As inputs, look at the changes in radiation to space at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) over the satellite era, demonstrating reductions from the pure black-body spectra to a less efficient (in terms of energy radiated based on temperature) emissivity due to increased greenhouse gases. Less energy radiated at a particular temperature, thus higher temperatures to radiate away what the sun inputs to the climate system - it doesn't get any simpler than that. -
Tom Curtis at 15:15 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
I see that patanomics (@63) has got the very "clear communication" from the moderator. I expect him therefore to reopen this discussion in a thread in which it is on topic, as that was the very clear suggestion by the moderator. Something about the wording of patanomics response, however, suggests to me that he is trying to pretend that a requirement that he comply withe the comments policy is actually censorship, when it is no such thing. I hope I am wrong. -
muoncounter at 15:11 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
patonomics: You've been pointed to any number of 'validation documents' and yet you ignore those pointers. #61: "I am just asking if it is 1) validated or 2) derived from assumption, or from 3) theory (based on assumption)? " That is entirely circular. The theory is valid (it is called 'physics'), the data validate the theory. The only one making assumptions is you, as you have built a case on a single sentence from a thousand-plus page summary document. And in #54: "I am not going to read and read in litterateurs and compete with those who are into full time Climate Scientist" If you don't want to read, you don't want to learn - or even have your preconceived notions (a 'deterministic equation') challenged. I note that you have not responded to several comments showing the irrelevancy of that search. We must conclude that your 'questions' here are merely rhetorical; no one has time to play that game. -
2012 SkS Weekly Digest #1
actually thoughtful - Yes, as Tom Curtis points out SkS is run by volunteers. Unlike Michaels and Knappenberger, who get direct funding from their fossil fuel customers :) -
actually thoughtful at 15:02 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Patonomics - You are asking for an equation and we are responding by saying - you don't need an equation when the evidence is directly in front of you. However, here is a simple equation. The hypothesis is that it is warmer now than in 1975. this can be expressed in the logical equation: If Tn>Tt, global warming is occurring (you recognize, of course that this is simplified as necessary to present it on a blog site) Where Tn is Temperature now, and Tt is Temperature then (as I said- keep it simple). Thus you have your validation equation, supported, not by models, but observable reality. And of course, this was predicted by Arrhenius in 1896, so the science has been tested almost as long as old Galileo (by which I mean you can measure in the 100 year increments). If this does not meet your equation requirements, perhaps you can be both more specific and more succinct? -
patonomics at 14:57 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Moderator Response#56: I got your msg ["subsequent pursuit of this topic will receive further, more severe moderation"]. I will not bother you any more. Thank you for your clear communication.Response:[DB] Unfortunately, there are no posts at Skeptical Science directly focus on the philosophy of science. You are welcome to peruse any/all of the 4,700+ comment threads here at SkS dealing with all aspects of climate science and may place on-topic comments on any of them.
Simply use the Search function in the Upper Left of every page to locate those more appropriate threads.
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actually thoughtful at 14:48 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
patonomics - it is notable that you have no 20th century examples of Galileo, nor can you produce any counters to the overwhelming evidence in support of AGW. I hope you will take the time to think about the implications of those two items. It appears your validation is already at hand. Your task is simply to understand what the evidence tells us - that world is warming, and man is to blame. -
patonomics at 14:46 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
KR#60: What I tried to communicate is science needs validation and not assumption. I do NOT and can NOT equate myself with "Galileo". "mass of evidence supports anthropogenic global warming" - I am just asking if it is 1) validated or 2) derived from assumption, or from 3) theory (based on assumption)? If AGW is validated truth, why not its quantitative (I expect the relationship must be deterministic in quantitative level) form is presented in a equation of temp as dependent variable of human created co2. Once I get validation document it will SILENCE my Q. Is not that easy to and many other who claim "The mass of evidence supports anthropogenic global warming" ? -
Tom Curtis at 14:37 PM on 23 January 20122012 SkS Weekly Digest #1
actually thoughtful @63, you must remember that SkS started simply as a personal resource of a science (student? graduate?) involved in the AGW debate. John Cook, when he started SkS, was not the media savvy communication savy person he is today, but only wanted a resource for himself, which he decided to post publicly as an after thought. Consequently, in the early days he made some mistakes (such as that involving the quote on the Antarctic Ice thread). Another mistake has been not logging the dates of updates, which led accidentally to an even more embarrassing mistake in which an article was updated, and then later a moderator made an inline comment on a post made before the update, that assumed the article at the time of posting was the current article. We have certainly learnt from those mistakes. We have no intent to deceive in any way, so the mistakes are genuine; and we genuinely wish to not repeat them. Consequently, you will now note an indication of the last update time on each article where relevant. There has been ongoing discussion of other reforms, including a permanent publicly accessible change log, and a borehole. There are, however, technical issues that need resolving. Do, for example prior comments get moved with the old article to the change log? Further, these changes require rewriting code (apparently), and above all time. SkS is run by a very small group of volunteers working part time. Most of the volunteers have very time consuming day jobs, and family (and other commitments). Further, their available time is divided between administrative duties on SkS, producing new articles, researching to keep up with the science (where that is not part of their day job), and answering questions, and rebutting denier comments in the comments section. Given the available time, the output of some of the volunteers is extraordinary. Here I have particularly in mind Dan Nuccitelli whose production rate of new articles is phenomenal, Daniel Bailey whose work as a moderator is very time consuming, and of a very high standard, and John Hartz, who is phenomenal as a news hound for new research, or AGW related articles in the mass media or blogosphere (in addition to producing these excellent weekly digests). I know others do great work behind the scenes on technical aspects, but as I know nothing about the technicalities I cannot give them proper credit. So, while some of your suggestions re transparency are very good, and have been suggested in internal discussion, they have not been implemented, or have not been implemented yet due to a lack of resources. However, until George Soros decides to open up his purse strings, or we get more volunteers, we will do the best we can; and certainly appreciate your continued suggestions. (I should not, I also am a volunteer in a small way. Consequently my responses to you on this issue have not been officially endorsed, and reflect my own view of the situation. I believe, however, that my view fairly represents the situation.) -
A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
patonomics - My apologies, this may be a language issue, but I cannot parse your last post. The "Galileo Gambit only suffices if you are correct. The mass of evidence supports anthropogenic global warming - if you disagree, you need to provide a better answer, which you have (so far) notably failed to do. Global warming via human generated greenhouse gases fits the last 150 years of spectroscopy, all the observations, multiple fingerprints, etc. What alternative do you point to? If any? Or are you simply presenting the argument from incredulity, which is a logical fallacy? -
patonomics at 14:14 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
actually thoughtful#57: You are entitled to hold your own thoughts, but that does NOT change my question about validation! -
patonomics at 14:11 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
muoncounter#55: about your claim "The only thing circular here is your persistent conviction that you and you alone are correct." - is not true. I am looking for validation from AGW claiming community, when someone claims to AGW be deterministic. If you think I am talking about myself, "and not about validation of science of AGW", then we are not in same frequency. And there is no point to discuss further. I am only looking for validation, and validation alone, if there are any. Else I do not need anything from anyone! -
actually thoughtful at 14:07 PM on 23 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Patonomics - I have read your comments so far on this thread - your philosophy seems rooted in the Sophists of the ancient Greeks (although I mean the modern definition of sophistry). Also - if you are now invoking the (false) equivalence of climate "Skeptics" with Galileo (being a skeptic of an earth-centric universe) - there are two problems - 1) the entire body of science has had over 500 years to mature and expand - so basic misunderstandings, like the role of CO2 in the climate are very, very rare. Indeed, can you point to 3 cases of a basic misunderstanding about science that happened in the entire 20th century? and 2) Galileo himself built his theories upon two pillars - the body of science and his own observations. Both the body of science and observations now support the AGW theory (indeed even those vaunted 3% disagree dramatically on questions of where the warming is coming from (very few actual scientists claim no warming), where it is going, how fast, etc. ) So there isn't really an opportunity for a credible skeptic to invoke Galileo as a counter to the widespread (overwhelming) body of scientific evidence that the world is warming and man is to blame.
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