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Stephen Baines at 06:15 AM on 20 January 2012What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
CBD. I wouldn't be surprised if trade winds have increased, although I haven't seen the actual data saying so yet. I'm just trying to get Tealy to take a more scientific approach here in evaluating the influence of ocean volume on a local sea-level record, so there is something tangible to discuss. -
funglestrumpet at 06:13 AM on 20 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
With all due respect to Owl905 @7 I couldn't agree more with Dr Natalia Shakhova's words: "I believe that there is absolutely no point in trying to determine who is responsible, Mother Nature or human beings. Whoever is responsible, the consequences will be the same." As I have said before: You don't refuse steer round an iceberg because it is not anthropogenic in origin. If you stand back from the issue, it is possible to see the way arguing about whether global warming is caused by human activities or not is being cleverly used as a reason not to act. Is global warming happening? - Yes Is the final amount of warming known? - No Is it potentially dangerous? – Yes, very Are greenhouse gasses responsible to some extent - Yes Do we produce greenhouse gasses? - Yes Would it help if we reduced our production of them? - Yes Why don't we act to reduce them? - We are too busy arguing about who has produced those already in the atmosphere. If Douglas Adams were still alive, I am sure he could write a whole chapter of the HitchHikers Guide to the Galaxy on how the Golgafrinchans tackled climate change based on our efforts on the matter. I know it is off topic, but surely the world’s financial problems would be cured at a stroke if we all adopted the leaf as a unit of currency the way the Golgafrinchans did. -
Stephen Baines at 06:06 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
"It would be nice to see a hearing to correct all the dis-information in previous climate hearings." It would be. But my guess is that won't happen because the stakes for are too high for those responsible(misleading congress is a federal offense), and the will in congress to force a proper accounting against those headwinds is simply not there at present. -
DaneelOlivaw at 06:05 AM on 20 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Dana, this is a nice review. Would it be worthwhile to try to turn it into an actual paper and publish it in the peer reviewed scientific literature? Scientific literature often is hard to interpret because it's very fragmented. This kind of reviews are the kind of thing we need, IMHO. Thanks for the hard work! -
CBDunkerson at 05:43 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
This information about Waxman wanting to call Michaels back to answer for some of his false statements is interesting. We've also previously discussed false testimony to congress from Monckton and others. It would be nice to see a hearing to correct all the dis-information in previous climate hearings. -
Albatross at 05:29 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Daniel and John, "All of the SkS authors are unpaid volunteers." In contrast, Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger have quite the fiscal (-snip-) to do what they do. They are paid generously apparently for the purpose of (-snip-) debate, (-snip-) doubt and (-snip-) Congress and the American people about climate science.Response:[DB] Inflammatory snipped.
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Albatross at 05:22 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Dana@119, So, despite vocal claims to the contrary, Watts et al. really are not interested in open scientific discourse. How hypocritical of Anthony Watts. But that does not surprise me in the least. So we now know, by their own actions, that neither WUWT nor WCR (Michaels et al.) nor Pielke Senior are interested in open dialogue and permitting people to freely critique or challenge their assertions on their own turf. Ironically, if Watts or Michaels had the gumption to post here, they would be welcome to (assuming they can follow the house rules of course). -
Daniel Bailey at 05:21 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
@ John Hartz"All of the SkS authors are unpaid volunteers."
So what am I to do with this stack of IOU's...? -
CBDunkerson at 05:19 AM on 20 January 2012What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
For the record, there is evidence that global warming has caused a Hadley cell expansion and thus increased trade winds. However, as Stephen notes, that doesn't mean the sea level trend near Tuvalu is entirely, or even largely, due to the trade winds. That said, the root cause of any sea level rise due to thermal expansion, ice loss, or trade winds is the same... global warming. -
Stephen Baines at 05:09 AM on 20 January 2012What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
Tealy, My question was, "What is your evidence that trade winds have increased on average in such a way to cause a long term change in sea-level? " You have simply provided evidence that local sea level near Tuvalu is higher relative to the rest of the Pacific basin because trade winds move surface water from east to west. No one questions that - it's established science. That does not explain the trend in sea-level near Tuvalu. Stating that trade-winds must be responsible for the trend because they are responsible for local elevation of sealevel in the tropical west Pacific is not good enough. The local elevation in sea-level has nothing to do, per se, with changes in sea-level over time. That would be confusing a temporal pattern with a spatial pattern. They need not have the same cause. You have posed a hypothesis - namely that increasing trade-are the sole cause of the increase in sea-level. The scientific approach would then be to test this hypothesis with data. A first step would be to show a corresponding increase in tradewinds with time. It would not be sufficient to make your case, because there is no reason to discount the role of observed changes in ocean water volume and you would not have established that the change in trade-winds was sufficient to cause the observed increase in sea-level. But it would be a necessary first step for you to be taken seriously.Moderator Response: [Albatross] Bold tag fixed. -
dagold at 05:09 AM on 20 January 2012Puget Sound, Under Threat From Ocean Acidification, Put on "Waters of Concern" List
When all is said and done, does it not come back to basic math and physics? IF we (including Pirate and Sphaerica!) agree with the vast majority of Clim. Sc. that 450 ppm is a 'danger demarcation' line' (if there is no agreement, then nothing much to talk about here) and therefor about 237 Gt Carbon is the total allowance remaining THEN...regardless of OA or anything else...we need to 1)Cap remaining total carbon emissions EVER at 237 Gt (and that's ignoring in the pipeline warming) 2) get our a**es moving and install replacement capacity with non-carbon sources. Yes? De-incentivize carbon, incentivize renewables (and efficiency) and do it! The 'solutions' start with the will and commitment...just like Apollo, just like WWII gear up and Manhattan project...there are many plan solutions already out there...THAT is not the sticking point. -
Composer99 at 05:09 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
hank: Have the pseudoskeptics can point out exactly where in the OP or comments Michaels is misquoted? As far as I have seen, every reference to Michaels' Congressional testimony or to WCR posts directly cite the appropriate texts (and provide links such that they can be checked for accuracy by anyone who cares to do so). I must confess I suspect that much of the brouhaha is for the benefit of those who will not take the time to review SkS' post. -
dana1981 at 04:58 AM on 20 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
On a note related to Albatross @7, although the "skeptics" often put forth alternative hypotheses (i.e. maybe the sun or oceanic cycles or astrological cycles or GCRs or [etc. etc.] has contributed more to global warming than we think), I did not find any attribution studies which attributed less than the vast majority of the recent warming to human effects. It's all well and good to say "maybe it's the sun", but as far as I could find, the 'skeptics' have been unable to back up their "it's not us" assertions with a robust physical and/or statistical analysis like those discussed in this post. -
Albatross at 04:34 AM on 20 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Readers, What emerges from this literature review and from the data presented in the figures, is that even given the inherent uncertainties, there is a convergence towards a relatively narrow range of values from multiple independent research papers showing that humans most contributed between 75% and 90% of the warming over the last 100-150 years, and that "over the most recent 25-65 years, every study put the human contribution at a minimum of 98%, and most put it at well above 100%". That is a significant and robust finding. That is the message that is being conveyed here and that should cause us all concern. It is also a nail in the coffin for people like Dr. Patrick Michaels who repeatedly to try and mislead Congress and the American people by trying and demonstrate that the majority of the observed warming is not attributable to the GHGs that we humans have been adding to the atmosphere. Here was Dr. Michaels' most recent (failed) attempt and Dr. Ben Santer was having none of it. Additionally, none of the six papers discussed above support the claims being made by "skeptics". When will the public finally tire of the misinformation and distortion being peddled by "skeptics" and those who deny the theory of AGW? I have. -
dana1981 at 04:32 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Coincidentally, Watts is now censoring my comments on WUWT, and of course there are no comments allowed on WCR, so obviously any discussion of Michaels' data deletions will have to occur on SkS. -
John Hartz at 04:27 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
@hank_ #112 Lest there be any confusion, there is no such thing as "SkS staff." All of the SkS authors are unpaid volunteers. -
DSL at 04:23 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Why would someone ask a question when the answers are right there in front of him/her? Further, why would someone ask such a question while admitting ignorance of the situation being discussed? I could make this a multiple choice question, but several of the choices would violate the comments policy. DNFTT -
Stephen Baines at 04:15 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Hank Which quotes are you referring to? -
CBDunkerson at 04:01 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Hank, so far as I can tell the only purported quotation of Michaels in the document above is that he said; "more than four times less than Hansen predicted." These words can be found in CATO article by Michaels here. Thus, I see no evidence supporting the claim you are reporting. If you had some information on precisely what misquotation is being claimed it might then be possible to provide a more direct answer. -
Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
hank_ - My apologies, the opening post does indeed include a Michaels quote: asserting that the planet had warmed "more than four times less than Hansen predicted." That's part of the Congressional Record, and is indeed an incorrect assertion when you have actually read Hansen's paper and looked at the data. So, no. -
Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
hank_ - Yes, SkS* is getting a lot of attention on 'skeptic' blogs right now. I suspect that's because this particular topic, distortions of data and science by advocacy groups such as Michaels' are a serious and telling issue. And having that particular flaw pointed out bothers some folks. "Manipulating quotes"? There's a clear Comments Policy, violators of that are deleted or snipped to remove offensive or over the line language - and that's an open requirement to participation. In the Michaels post itself - the only quotes I see there are from scientists extremely unhappy with Michaels' selective editing of their graphic data representations. There have been a few Ad Hominem Tu Quoque fallacies thrown out (And You Fallacy); but quite frankly there's a difference between SkS posting some of the graphics/text of a paper with direct references (as opposed to reproducing entire papers each time) - and what Michaels has done, which is to edit graphs to change the presentation, which is equivalent to deliberately misquoting a person to portray them as having a diametrically opposed position. But: Read it yourself, hank_, look up the original sources as well, and judge for yourself. * Note the abbreviation - unwarranted associations with WWII are implied ad hominem's. -
hank_ at 03:51 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
@106 - 108 Pardon my ignorance of the whole Michaels situation. But none of you have answered the original question; Has the SKS staff manipulated statements from Michaels and then presented them here as an actual quote from him? That's what has been said elsewhere. HResponse:[dana1981] No, as a few commenters have noted, there is only one statement from Michaels in the above post, and it is a direct quote from his congressional testimony. I would be interested to know exactly how we are purported to have "manipulated statements from Michaels."
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dana1981 at 03:44 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
CBD @110 - exactly. Chip has attempted to defend the WCR deletions by saying we could just cover up the figures and there would be no problem with their posts. That totally misses the point. Their posts also completely ignore the inconvenient data, and thus they wrongly claim that the papers support their assertions of low climate sensitivity and/or relatively little future global warming. The papers only support those assertions if you ignore the inconvenient data. Michaels' deletion of Hansen's Scenarios B and C is in a whole other league of distortion. I'm working on another post examining that one in more depth. Look for it to be published here probably on Monday. -
owl905 at 03:39 AM on 20 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
The external links coupled with the ESAS findings suggest an initial reaction of 'new development'. When global methane concentrations started rising again the fingerprint was increases in both northern and southern hemispheres at the same time. Somehow, the two-year mixing lag across the equator was bypassed - or it was a global phenom. Now hotspots are observed in the ESAS and in the Antarctic. The negative-hypothesis presented in the American WX link at the bottom of the Expert Discussion article is wanting on all counts. It isn't conclusive, but any dismissive about it isn't because it shouldn't, or the model didn't show it, or the IPCC didn't write it ... they're selling, not telling. -
CBDunkerson at 03:38 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Ultimately this isn't really about the graphs. Michaels claimed that Hansen 1998 made a prediction, that global temperature anomalies would increase by 0.45 C between 1988 and 1997, which it did not. Yes, he used a doctored graph to support this claim, but it is the false claim itself which is the essential problem. Likewise, Michaels claimed that Schmittner 2011 found low climate sensitivity... when, in truth, it did not. Again, he doctored a graph to support the false claim, but the graph is not the issue. It is just the prop on which the false claim was based. Ditto Gilette 2012. Michaels falsely claimed it found low future warming... by removing the portions of the graph showing potentially high future warming. It isn't the act of making changes to a graph in and of itself which is problematic. Additions and removals from graphs can be just fine. For instance, if one of Hansen's emissions scenarios had happened to exactly match observed emissions then it would have been reasonable to show a graph based on just the warming from that scenario. Michaels went wrong in using temperatures based on an emissions scenario which did not match observations and falsely claiming this was what Hansen predicted. So, again, the modifications to the graphs are not the root problem. The false claims which the graphs were modified to 'support' are the issue. -
DSL at 03:13 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Aye, Tom. It's easy to stand behind a wall, sneer, and preach The Truth. This is an open forum. Thanks for the report from behind the wall, Hank. Do you have anything of substance to add? Perhaps you could represent the bashers, since they seem to be taking the day off from open dialogue. Not up to it? Just the messenger? By the way, look at what you posted carefully. What exactly are you asking? If SkS is being bashed? If so, you just reported that SkS is. If you meant to ask about manipulation, read this thread for yourself. -
dana1981 at 02:58 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
If SkS is getting "bashed" in the "skeptical blogosphere", it means we must be doing something right. The truth hurts, and people in denial don't react well to it. -
dana1981 at 02:52 AM on 20 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
There's always a trade-off between detail and clarity. The figures are already getting cluttered, and adding more information makes them more difficult to interpret. I know most SkS readers have no problem interpreting more complex graphics, but these are the sorts of things that could potentially get spread around to a larger audience, in which case simpler graphics have much more impact. There's a phrase good communicators abide by, and is discussed at length in the Debunking Handbook - in short, K.I.S.S. As noted in the post and the comments above, the links to every paper are provided so that you can read them yourself if you want more information (thanks for fixing the link DB). -
Tom Curtis at 02:50 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Hank @105, that we are being "bashed" on the "skeptical" blogosphere says all you need to know. Evidently the people taking swings at us only have the courage to do so in our absence, and where they are not required to back up their claims with evidence. And before you say, "Sauce for the goose ...", I am sure Dana would be happy to raise the allegations in the main post on Michael's own blog. The problem is, Michael's doesn't have the courage to allow comments, which might result in his needing to back up his claims with evidence. Please note, the proper abbreviation of Skeptical Science is SkS. We avoid using "SS" because some of those oh so courageous "skeptical" bloggers have in the past deliberately made comparisons between Skeptical Science and Hitler's Schutzstaffel based on a coincidence of initials. This says all you need to know about their moral virtues, and the quality of their arguments. -
cynicus at 02:20 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
@150 hank_ Well, I could say "No", but then it becomes a he said/she said Yes or No situation, so I wont. Just carefully read the post and the links therein and decide for yourself if quotes were manipulated and by whom. Might be a revealing experience regarding the reliability of skeptic claims. -
hank_ at 02:13 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Wow, you guys at SS are getting bashed lately in the skeptical blogosphere lately for manipulating quotes, especially concerning the Michaels story. Is this true? H -
DSL at 01:24 AM on 20 January 2012New research from last week 2/2012
Hey, thanks for stopping by to clarify and reiterate, Peter (or Dr. Kuipers Munneke, if you prefer). The Arctic seems to get all the press; it's nice to hear voices from the other end of the Earth. -
Utahn at 00:37 AM on 20 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
Chip @78, Michaels was attempting to denigrate a graphic because it *didn't show any* power outages in a given year, and the graphic's legend said "Most outages occur in local distribution networks and are not included in the graph.” Can you see how leaving out that information makes it seem like you have a strong point, when really you don't? How is that not deceptive? -
Alex C at 00:13 AM on 20 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Chinahand- I think you mean mean? In any case, as Alexandre said you can search the papers themselves, it's not like the data is being hid away from readers. The Tett 2000 data for instance was derived from figure 6, at the bottom of the linked PDF (BTW, all of the Tett links are broken it seems - one has to delete the skepticalscience leading text, before the harvard abstract part). The anthro component for 1947-97 predicts a temperature trend of 1.35˚C/century, and the observed was 0.8 - that percentage of observed is about the 170% given in the figure. -
Tealy at 00:08 AM on 20 January 2012What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
Stephen Bains @26 Regarding you question as to trade winds causing the higher sea level at Tuvalu, I found the confirmation below in Wikipedia section on Tuvalu climate change:- "The 2011 report of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program published by the Australian Government,[3] describes a strong zonal (east‑to-west) sea-level slope along the equator, with sea level west of the International Date Line (180° longitude) being about a half metre higher than found in the eastern equatorial Pacific and South American coastal regions. The trade winds that push surface water westward create this zonal tilting of sea level on the equator." Therefore to have an even higher sea level at Tuvalu than the Pacific average means to have greater zonal tilting across the Pacific, which means to have stronger trade winds. ie you can't have an increased effect without having an increased cause. QED -
Alex C at 23:53 PM on 19 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Dana - at least one of the links is not set up correctly, the Tett 2000 hyperlink at the start of its section.Response: [DB] Thanks for the heads-up. Updated the various Tett links to this -
prokaryotes at 23:36 PM on 19 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
Yes and this here needs consideration too Yurganow London CH4 Anomalies discussion he concludes: ..after 2007 new growing source(s) caused a new growth of CH4. The nature of these sources is a matter of debates. The current rate of CH4 increase (~ 20 Tg per year for the global troposphere) seems to be constant between 2007 and September, 2011. This increase does not look catastrophic: in early 1980 methane was increasing with a rate 40-50 Tg/year and the rate decreased to zero by 2000. A permanent monitoring is necessary to detect a potential large surge as promptly as possible. -
Alexandre at 22:44 PM on 19 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
Chinahand As they are, those graphs are easy to grasp, and therefore they're a useful means of science communication to the broader audience. I assume this is the goal of many of SkS's graphs. Feel free to hunt the original research. Please come back and tell us if you do find some relevant innacuracy. Or even make some graphs of your own: you may have some good idea on how to convey lots of scientific information in a way that's intelligible in a glance. As for Dana, thanks for doing all the work of putting this together. -
John Mason at 22:13 PM on 19 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
OK, I have obtained the methane charts back to December 2006, so I'll post them one after the other: December 2006:
December 2007:
December 2008:
December 2009:
December 2010:
December 2011:
2011 does look pretty high compared to previous years, but one year out of a series has to be treated with caution. Also, note the fluctuations occurring over SE continental Asia.
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Chinahand at 21:52 PM on 19 January 2012A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
I am very surprised that in the summaries of each research paper you've not included any figures, nor the error ranges. This quantitative information is absolutely needed to add to the visualization provided in the charts. I can (just) understand the decision not to put the error ranges on the charts (but a high low and median chart is just as visually useful as a bar chart) but not to include any numerical data whatsoever in this piece seems to have missed out vital data. In preparing the charts you must have this data, why not share it with us - now I've got to go to the original research and hunt it out myself. Surely providing such numbers is just as important as the nice graphics. As far as I am concerned the median is of less use than the range which is by far the most important part of any scientific study. -
prokaryotes at 21:50 PM on 19 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
John, sorry about that, i have resized them all to 1024px (about 100kb) already, see my above link . -
John Mason at 21:46 PM on 19 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
Prokaryotes, If you are going to post images, then please could you resize them to 500 pixels? The ones above are huge and they are generating server error messages at times (the 425 alert, if anybody wonders what that is), even with the size-settings you have applied. I have asked the moderators if they can replace them with copies I have resized and saved. -
prokaryotes at 21:34 PM on 19 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
Latest Methane Anomalies (off the chart) with Expert discussion -
John Mason at 21:11 PM on 19 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
Prokaryotes, It would be instructive to compare the Dec 2010 & 2011 graphs with those for a few of the preceding years. In 2009 and 2010 the pressure-patterns over the Arctic were rather unusual - these leading to the very cold wintry weather over NW Europe. In 2011-12, a "normal" polar-vortex pattern has dominated matters. It would, therefore, be interesting to see if December 2009 has any similarity to December 2010 and whether December 2006, 2007 and 2008 are more like December 2011. My line of questioning is based upon whether a trans-polar airflow giving deep Northerly outbreaks across NW Europe better flushes the methane out of the Arctic than the "normal" circumpolar flow. -
MarkR at 21:08 PM on 19 January 2012Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
#51 Chip : You're free to use data however you want, although an honest broker will always explain which data they've selected and why. However, such analysis will not have gone through peer review and will not have been checked for mistakes, misleading choices etc. Take most of WUWT's scientific 'analysis' for example: their conclusions aren't in peer reviewed journals because their analysis would fail peer review. So how to get the impression of peer reviewed work (i.e. stuff that's been filtered for mistakes or misleading choices) supporting your conclusion? One way would be to take graphs from the peer reviewed literature and delete the data points that disagree with your opinion. A reader might think 'oh, this is real peer reviewed data and the analysis was good enough to get in a proper scientific report, maybe this blog post is right'. Unless you made it abundantly clear exactly what you'd done and why in the caption attached to the graph, then you'd be misleading your audience. Something that should be completely unacceptable in scientific debate and I don't see how anyone could think otherwise. -
prokaryotes at 21:00 PM on 19 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
Re Wili, let me add your image and the corresponding from 2010 2011 / 12
2010 / 12
AIRS Anomalies
Response:[DB] Fixed image ftp issues. Please resize images to no more than 500 pixels width. See here for posting tips.
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prokaryotes at 20:40 PM on 19 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
Response:[DB] Note: All graphics must include accompanying text which provides the context for why the graphic is relevant and germane to the htread on which it is posted. Future graphics-only or link-only will be deleted. FYI.
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Tealy at 20:26 PM on 19 January 2012What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
Anyone have further references as to the cause of the ocean near Tuvalu being higher than the ocean average? -
pkm at 19:12 PM on 19 January 2012New research from last week 2/2012
@16, 18, 19 As I mention in the paper, snowmelt plays an insignificant role in the mass budget of Antarctica. Mass is gained by snowfall and lost by calving of icebergs. Antarctica is simply too cold for significant melting. Moreover, almost all meltwater refreezes in the firn so that no contribution to sea level is made. However, snowmelt is important to quantify because it plays a role in the breakup of ice shelves. An insignificant change in meltwater volume since 1979 may hint to the importance of basal melting by warm ocean water in the recent breakups of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula. Or, alternatively, ice-shelf breakup is preconditioned by melt over time scales longer than the 31 years assessed in the paper. -
wili at 17:25 PM on 19 January 2012Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
Satellite image of December Arctic atmospheric methane concentrations is up: ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/ARCTpolar2011.12._AIRS_CH4_400.jpg It shows very dark red (= high concentration) over ESAS, darker than any other month or year, as far as I can see. Is this the first strong instrumental indication that something is happening with Arctic methane this year?
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