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Comments 66251 to 66300:

  1. Eric (skeptic) at 06:01 AM on 21 January 2012
    Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Albatross, I scoured at Tom's suggestion (150), otherwise I would not have spent time on it. The figure should be discussed in context within an appropriate thread (which we have started).
  2. How do Climate Models Work?
    Oh, another interesting point - you can apply Shannon's Sampling Theorem to determine how small a surface grid you need to accurately represent the climate in a region, or to say how much accuracy you get from a given grid. 5x5 degree grids are pretty inaccurate (they'd miss pretty much all of the climate variation in my home state of Colorado), but a 1x1 degree grid gets the bulk of it. Sampling theory indicates that horizontal resolution isn't nearly as important as vertical resolution, too. Fun stuff. :)
  3. How do Climate Models Work?
    I'd have preferred "projection" instead of "prediction," as I think that's more accurate, but that's a nit compared to the overall post. Thanks!
  4. Philippe Chantreau at 05:56 AM on 21 January 2012
    A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    Patonomics, we don't learn in science about the hierarchy of certainty that you enumerated. Hypothesis, law and theory are 3 differents concepts with different functions that can not be fitted in a hierarchy of increasing certainty. A hypothesis is a key element of scientific reasoning on a particular problem, and could be described as a provisional explanation for an observed phenomenon. That provisional explanation can be tested in a variety of ways, the easiest being through its implications: if hypothesis a is correct, then it implies that its consequences x and y should be observed, are they? Another way to test it is by experimentation. A law is a stripped down, basic relationship between objects or forces that always holds true, as far as we know, under certain conditions. Newton's laws of motion and gravity are useable for all practical purposes within the Newtonian domain of application, but they are not sufficient when velocity or mass goes beyond that domain, hence the necessity of using Einstein's laws for the orbit of Mercury or GPS calculations. Laws are not always true and break down near or at the limits of their domain. A theory is a generalization, a far reaching construct explaining an aspect of the physical world for which a law is not enough. Theories put the laws together and make sense of them. They can allow to make predictions, which can be verified by observations, and that are beyond what a single law would allow to predict. All of Wien's law, Schrodinger's equation and Heisenberg's unertainty principle are necessary to Quantum Theory. The theory does not have a lower level of certainty than any one of its laws, principles, or any given underlying component. In fact, it has a rather higher level. If any of the laws I mentioned above was to be found not quite as true as we thought, it would not draw from the theory, which still remains extremely successful at predicting what we can observe. It would have to be revised, but its past sucesses would not cease to exist. By the same token, Einstein did not invalidate Newton, it simply changed its domain of application. I don't know where you received that hierarchy of certainty idea from but you should rethink it. I do know that it is an argument often touted by creationists denying Evolution. It does not correspond to the reality of how science works and it misrepresents what a scientific theory is.
  5. How do Climate Models Work?
    Do any models use adaptive grids or adaptive timestep ? sidd
  6. A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    There needs to be an Internet version of the proverb: "It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak up and remove all doubt."
  7. A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    patonomics#15: "those who claim with 100% certainty" No one produces claims with 100% certainty in any science. Global warming is a prediction (or a result) based on known physics: Energy in - Energy out = energy gain -> increasing temperature. That was shown to be scientifically valid many years ago. Anything that alters the flow of energy will thus have a predictable result, which matches what we observe. By your highly artificial requirement of a 'general mathematical formula,' there are no fully complete sciences at all. So that requirement is nonsensical.
  8. A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    I agree with patonomics, except my area of concern is modern medicine. Doctors and nurses and such expect me to believe they are able to cure and prevent certain diseases, and to suggest lifestyle changes that I should adopt in order to improve my chance of a longer, healthier life. I think that if this were true, they should be able to provide me with a general mathematical formula that can be used without any exception L(lifespan at time t) = f (X1, X2, X3, .... Xn)* + c by the people who claim to be "Authority in the Subject', claim that their claim is Conclusive. * Where X1, X2, ...., Xn are variables, and they may very well be multidimensional.
  9. It's cooling
    11th warmest year on record, but 1st warmest comparable la nina year on record according to NOAA...hmm? Does this mean anything?
  10. A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    patonomics: The twelve part series, “Atmospheric Radiation and the ‘Greenhouse’ Effect” posted on The Science of Doom website, would be a good place for you to start. It is a 12-part series providing more explanation of how the atmosphere absorbs and emits radiation, including a simple model to provide insight. The model uses fictitious molecules pH2O and pCO2 (which have only a passing resemblance to the real molecules) to demonstrate some key points. Part Six even explains the real equations used.
  11. A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    Patonomics: You do not understand the basic definations of Theory and Law in science. Theories do not grow up to be laws. Laws are descriptions of a number of observations. Theories explain how things work and predict future observations. Both theories and laws can be changed if new data becomes available, but that does not happen very often. Climate is too complicated to have a simple mathematical formula to describe it. In the past the land masses were in different places, the sun was colder and many other things were different. There are explainations of all these differences but you need to search them on your own. I suggest you start with The Discovery of Global Warming by Spencer Weart. It conatins all the information you seek. If you have a less combative tone you will find people more helpful.
    Moderator Response: [Sph] Link fixed.
  12. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Eric et al., Eric (skeptic) you are desperately trying to get traction with something that does not have traction, all the while admitting that the use of KN08 Fig3 here is not the same as Pat Michaels doctoring several graphs. So really this all amounts to nothing more than a very protracted strawman argument and attempt to fabricate debate on your part. As several people have noted, what panels one could/should include is highly subjective, is situation dependent and depends on the context. You do not seem to get those points. Moreover, given that you insist on feeding fodder to the uncritical readers at WUWT confirms my observation that you are not operating in good faith on this issue. And earlier you took offense/exception when I suggested that people were now going to "scour" SkS looking for examples of alleged figure doctoring, claiming that you had not done that (and that was true at the time). However, you have gone on to do just that at 158 above-- a fine example of duplicity on your part. Now can we please take this KN08 "discussion" to the appropriate thread, future comments about KN08 here will be summarily deleted.
    Moderator Response: [Albatross] Text no longer relevant struck out.
  13. A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    We learn in Science, there is progression in knowing through 1)Hypothesis, 2)Theory and 3)Law. Scientific law is the place where one can validated a claim, and after validation time and again, its agreed to get settled. I am not a Climate scientist, but I have the capability to understand science & technology of Physic, Chemistry, Mathematics, Fluid Dynamics, Thermodynamics, Heat & Mass Transfer. People who claimed to be "Subject Authority in climate science", claims there is AGW(impact of human induced co2). If I assume for a minute to be absolutely true "Like a law of Science"for a minute, then May I humble ask those who claim with 100% certainty to produce (or refer me to any scientifically validated research article) a formula which I and many others can "validate agw (impact of human induced co2)conclusively" for any point of earth's history of temperature during which we have temperature and natural (and human induced)co2 record? I expect the response must produce/pointer towards general mathematical formula that can be used without any exception T(temp at time t) = f (X1, X2, X3, . . . . . Xn)* + c, by the people who claim to be 'Authority in the Subject', claim that their claim is Conclusive. * Where X1, X2, . . . . , Xn are variables, and they may very well be multidimensional
    Response:

    [DB] As one possessing Subject Authority in this site's Comment Policy, I must humbly ask you to both familiarize yourself with said policy and expect you to also refrain from posting in all-caps without any exceptions.

    Also, claims made must be supportable with source citations (this is a science website, after all).  Please provide a supportive cite for your assertion:

    People who claimed to be "Subject Authority in climate science", claims there is AGW(impact of human induced co2).

    Or withdraw it.

  14. A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    Eric @66, "Even if a 3C estimate of paleo-sensitivity is accurate (considering it uses the same models as other estimates so it is not an independent estimate), it doesn't apply to modern climate. " I think you meant to say "...it doesn't necessarily apply to modern climate". You do not unequivocally know that a priori.
  15. Lessons from the Whitehouse-Annan Wager
    DB from J. Bob @ 27 while I may look at climate4you, and they do have some good graphs, which I have checked out, I make it a point of using primary sources. owl905 & 29 here is a ref. to a graph using yearly HadCRUT3gl data up to 2009, which I did last year. In addition I used some different filters to evaluate to reduce the "noise". These included the MOV, MATLAB "filtfilt" (Chev 2-pole), & Fourier Convolution. Filter cutoff for the upper was 10 years, while the lower had 30 yrs. http://www.4shared.com/photo/3P7Sufpf/Filter_Comp_10_30yr.html I still think Whitehouse made a good bet, and when I update this with 2011 data, I bet he could win again, since the above curves indicate a plateau or maybe a dip. DB, question, when you do a preview, are posted images, or referenced images, checked for the correct format?
    Response:

    [DB] "when you do a preview, are posted images, or referenced images"

    If they are in a standard graphic format such as ,jpg, .gif or .png, then yes.  Other formats may work, but the Preview function will show what will post.  If the Preview shows only an image outline or no image, then no.

    Images and grphics contained in .pdf's normally cannot be linked directly (except if they contain embedded hyperlinks).  Use a screen capture utility such as MWSnap to extract them, then upload to a hosting service or to a blog of your own to then reference them.

    Wiki pages often have images on a root page, so ensure the URL string ends in a graphics format (such as .jpg) before linking.

  16. Lessons from the Whitehouse-Annan Wager
    Julian - the original BEST data included two final data points which were incomplete, only containing data from Antarctic temperature stations. They were probably included erroneously. Various "skeptics" used those data points to argue that BEST showed global warming had stopped. You can't get a recent cooling trend without including those two points, so I kept them in the "skeptic" view, but removed them in the "realist" view, since really they should have been excluded as incomplete.
  17. Lessons from the Whitehouse-Annan Wager
    Looking at Figure 2 (How "Skeptics" & Realists View Global Warming), the dark green graph is of course the same in either the "Skeptic" or the Realist view, because the dataset is the same. But there's one exception. On the Skeptic (becoming tired of hunting for the double quote key!) view, there's a huge dip down to -1 deg C. I don't understand what that is. Is it a jokey impression saying that a Skeptic would say that it'll be cool next year? If so, it's not coming over well because it looks as if it's in the past and it's the same colour. If I've missed the point of the huge dip, please say what it is! Enjoyed the article in general. I guess it's like betting on a usually winning racehorse that has occasional off days!
  18. How do Climate Models Work?
    Excellent work, Kate. It's nice to see the fruit of all your work in preparation for the AGU meeting. Your final paragraph says it all though: Palaeoclimatology tells us all we really need to know (as in James Hansen's Storms of my Grandchildren). Unfortunately, so-called "skeptics" refuse to accept the evidence of either models or palaeoclimatology. May be record-breaking numbers of tornados over places like the University of Alabama in Huntsville (Roy W Spencer's home turf?) and the spiralling insurance costs of fixing what were once rare events will change their minds? We can but hope...
  19. How do Climate Models Work?
    Excellent article! I have in the past used the zero dimensional model in discussions and for my own evaluations - use one of the many radiative transfer programs such as MODTRAN to see how changes in GHG's affect total emissivity, and directly calculate resulting global temperatures from direct forcings. Or look at paleo evidence such as Milankovich insolation changes, calculate the direct forcing changes, compare to recorded total temperature changes, and see what that tells you about feedbacks and climate sensitivity. High resolution? Regional forcasts? No. But even the simplest model can provide useful, indicative results.
  20. How do Climate Models Work?
    Very accessible explanation of climate models. Great job. I'll be sharing it. Personal nit - the advocacy in the last sentence jars with the rest.
  21. Eric (skeptic) at 02:18 AM on 21 January 2012
    A detailed look at climate sensitivity
    What's missing from the paleo paragraph in the OP is that paleo estimates of uncertainty contain one or more of the following: "No, poorly understood, large uncertainties, very few studies or poor agreement, (un)known limitations, low confidence" for most estimation criteria, particularly similar climate base state, similar forcings and feedbacks, etc. As I explained above about a year ago, the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions have starting conditions that don't apply to today's climate. Even if a 3C estimate of paleo-sensitivity is accurate (considering it uses the same models as other estimates so it is not an independent estimate), it doesn't apply to modern climate.
  22. A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    Zachary Shahan at Planetsave reposted Dana's article with the following introduction: “In another wonderful post on global warming, Skeptical Science conducts a comprehensive review of scientific studies on the causes of global warming.”
  23. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Concerning the "which figures" to include discussion, I believe it is very much a matter of context and perceived intent. Without going into the details of the examples discussed, let me offer one that is equivalent but distinct. The CO2 science "MWP Project" purports to demonstrate that the MWP was as warm or warmer than today. As evidence they offer this graph from one particular paper that studied South Andes ice cores: This is one segment of a single figure (figure 6) of 3 such graphs for two other cores from that particular paper (Thomspon et al, 2003): That, in turn, is also paired with another figure (figure 5) of 3 Tibetan cores: These 6 graphs make the heart of the paper. Clearly, the inclusion of one carefully selected graph from figure 6 supports their contention, while the exclusion of five other graphs makes their selection seem... tilted. In particular, they demonstrate how widely temperatures varied even within the same continent, and that the peak presented by Quelccaya is not at all contemporaneous (off by several hundred years) with peak temperatures in any of the other cores. In fact, this one paper, if presented fairly, serves as strong evidence that the MCA was not a global event that is any way comparable to current warming. Obviously, there is always more information that could be included. As an editor or author, one is always faced with the choice between too much and too little. As an observer, one can always argue the wisdom of such choices after the fact. The question is not was it a good choice. The question is was it a clearly biased choice, intended to misrepresent the actual available information and the likely, most reasonable conclusion one might draw from that information. The question is, seeing what was there, do you feel that you (and others) have been misled by the selection of information presented.
  24. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    @ Tealy I believe that part of the stumbling block impeding your understanding of SLR is implicit in the perception that the Earth is a sphere and that its mass is equally distributed. It is not a sphere precisely (equatorially bulging) nor is its mass equally distributed. It is thus more precisely described as a geoid. The reason this matters is that as ice sheets such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and those at the South Pole (the West Antarctic Ice Sheet plus the East Antarctic Ice Sheet) lose/offload mass (such as they are currently doing), the redistribution of mass that occurs will alter sea levels in a dynamic fashion: some localized areas may actually experience sea level lowering while yet other areas, such as Tuvalu, may experience a disproportionate amount of sea level rise.
  25. Eric (skeptic) at 02:04 AM on 21 January 2012
    Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Tom, thanks for the mockup. You have proven that it is possible to create an independent figure from K&H08 figure 3b with just a little work. I don't agree that it is perfectly sensible without knowing that it applies to the estimates in K&H08 fig 3a. Otherwise you are correct, it is now independent of 3a.

    Here's my list of uses of 3a: wide version:
    /climate-sensitivity-advanced.htm
    /lindzen-illusion-4-climate-sensitivity.html
    /ppm451.html
    /Schmittner-climate-sensitivity-goood-bad-ugly.html
    /christy-crock-6-climate-sensitivity.html
    /Monckton-Myth-4-Climate-Sensitivity.html
    /spencer_ocean.html
    /climate-sensitivity-skeptic-end-game.html

    upright version:
    /climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period-intermediate.htm
    /detailed-look-at-climate-sensitivity.html
    /co2-warming-35-percent.htm
    /working-out-climate-sensitivity.html

    some offsite uses (incomplete search):
    http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2011/11/a-new-estimate-of-climate-sensitivity
    http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/09/19/206503/climate-sensitivity-lukewarmers

    I'll comment on one of those threads as you suggested.

  26. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    Tealy - As I noted here, Tuvalu has gained attention because the islands are indeed suffering from sea level rises, and because they are populated. Hence that set of islands have become a "poster child" example of climate change affecting us. But regardless of trade winds, all atoll islands are going to suffer consequences from sea level rise - Tuvalu is just one of the first. It's simply a matter of time - as Becker 2011 notes, we're going to lose many of the western Pacific islands in the next 150 years, and other islands in other regions will follow depending on local sea level rise rates. And that's because the seas are rising, at rates that are only going to increase with further warming. If you disagree, I would suggest moving to the more relevant threads here or here.
  27. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    KR @156, I probably would have done that, except that Watts had so recently threatened to ban me.
  28. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Tom Curtis - I have had that experience on a couple of WordPress sites (including WUWT, but also others). Whether due to some cookies being cleared, refresh issues, or site database handling while a post is actually being moderated, I cannot say, but I believe it's simply structural to the mechanics of WordPress blogs. I've learned to come back and look at sites the next morning before getting concerned.
  29. What's Happening To Tuvalu Sea Level?
    CBD and Stephen Bains @32 & 33. Thermal expansion and ice loss affect all the ocean evenly, in other words these only increase the average sea level not the zonal tilting. For one part of an ocean to have a difference in level there must be a driving force. The difference in level is the effect, I am questioning, delving into, and asking what is the cause. Because to say the effect will continue to increase (ie that sea level rise around Tuvali will continue to rise at a greater rate than the ocean average), requires you to take a view that the cause will increase. I don't think you can take a view that a cause will continue to increase if you don't have a position on what you believe that cause to be. I would like to understand the cause. Reading through this article the basis for the extrapolation seems to be that the sea level around Tuvalu has been observed to increased at a greater rate than the ocean average for 50 years, and that trend somehow must continue for 100 more years. I don't see any evidence or basis put forward to support the extrapolation of zonal tilting, and there should be. What is the nexus? What causes zonal tilting? Why will the cause continue to increase for 100 years? To quote:- "The onus is on he who says it is so". There is evidence and basis that global warming will increase average sea levels, ie a warmer ocean will thermally expand (as long as it is above 6C otherwise it contracts with warming) etc. To say zonal tilting will increase due to global warming is insufficient. The nexus between more co2 and more zonal tilting is not my hypothesis to prove, and just because the two have increased does not prove a relationship. But I do want to understand so I can take a view as to whether the cause and therefore the effect will continue for 100 years.
  30. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Sphaerica, two comments of mine did not appear on Watt's up with that when initially posted. Not even the usual "awaiting moderation" status appeared. As a result I incorrectly surmised that I had been banned from WUWT. Hence my intemperate and inaccurate remark (since snipped) at 141 above. While I think the comment is well justified on other grounds, it was not in this case and offer Anthony Watts my (obviously qualified) apology for that remark. However, this is not a case of my being censored at WUWT, although I have been in the past.
  31. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Eric (skeptic), as you are persisting in your line of questioning on WUWT, I have produced the following edited version of Knutti and Hegerl's figure 3b for illustrative purposes only: Now, I put it to you that if you where reading Knutti and Hegerl, and having come across their actual figure 3a as figure 2, and then came across a figure 3 as represented above, you would not think the figure was senseless. You would not find it was impossible to understand. It would be a perfectly sensible figure to you. It follows from that that, logically, figure 3b is an independent figure from 3a in Knutti and Hegerl. It is, of course, not independent of the entire discussion in Knutti and Hegerl, or independent of discussion of climate sensitivity. Despite that, I can certainly imagine contexts in which that figure could be found without the equivalent of figure 3a and nobody would bat an eyelid. Please note that the 1901-2000 data in the Gillett figure is also logically independent of the 1851-2010 data. It could have been produced as an independent figure and, again, nobody would bat an eyelid. However, it was not produced as an independent figure. Presumably it was not because the authors (or reviewers) thought the disparity of results raised significant questions about the robustness of the main result, and did not want that issue to escape notice. In contrast to the authors (or reviewers), Michaels and Knappenberg did want the issue of robustness to escape notice, even though it was clearly pertinent to Michaels' discussion. It follows that there is a clear ethical difference between the two cases. But had Gillett produced the 1901 to 2000 data on one figure, and the 1851 to 2010 data on another seperate figure (even if part of the same cluster), and if Michael's had then reproduced the figure for the 1851-2010 data, then Dana's inclusion of the Gillett case in the above post would have been absurd. What is more, while Michaels' article may have been subject to criticism on basis of intellectual merit because it did not discuss relevant issues, issues of misepresentation of sources would not have arisen. Conversely, had Knutti and Hegerl included figure 3a and 3b as part of one single figure 3 without distinct discussion, separating them would have been problematic. Finally, I dislike your raising questions to me on WUWT. I rarely visit that site, and even more rarely comment because a large part of the commenting participants have a demonstrated inability to follow logical argument, and a clear unwillingness of follow basic rules of reasoning. Discussion with them is literally pointless. The Biblical injunction to not cast pearls before swine is very relevant. There appears to me to be no reason for you to raise issues with me on WUWT unless you feel the presence of an abusive, and scientifically illiterate audience to distract me is necessary for your argument.
  32. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    144, Eric (skeptic),
    BTW, your reply to me has appeared at WUWT.
    Oh, no. Censorship at WUWT? Erasing something just because it's inconvenient? Who'd have thunk it.
  33. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Dana at #119. I could say so much about Watts' apparent meaning in the first paragraph of that censored post, but I'd probably run afowl of the polite-posting rules here. Suffice to say that the difference between "inciteful" and "insightful" is noticable in the context of what Watts' thinks he is saying... It goes to prove that WWWT is good for one thing at least - providing a laugh!
  34. Eric (skeptic) at 00:00 AM on 21 January 2012
    Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Ok Tom, the ball is in my court.
  35. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Eric (skeptic), I cannot do a search for all uses of a particular image. Consequently I am not able to with reasonable effort find all, or most of the used of that graphic on SkS to comment on. If you think it is worth the effort, you find an example where you think not including figure 3b of Knutti and Hegerl has resulted, or facilitated, in misrepresentation of some part of Knutti and Hegerl by SkS. Failing such an example, the issue is irrelevant to this topic. You may also want to find an example where not including figure 3b of Knutti and Hegerl has resulted in a failure to canvass issues that should have been canvassed in a post on SkS. Note that this is a distinct issue (on several counts) to the Michaels/Knappenberger doctoring of graphs. Never-the-less, it is a bare minimum for relevance in your current line of questioning, and has not been established. (In you believe you have found an instance of this type, please raise the issue in the thread where you find it so as to be on topic.)
  36. Eric (skeptic) at 23:25 PM on 20 January 2012
    Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    BTW, I would please ask those who want to discuss the specifics of K&H08 fig 3b to do so here: /argument.php?p=5&t=268&&a=115#63452 where I pasted it with some of the rows labeled.
  37. Eric (skeptic) at 23:17 PM on 20 January 2012
    Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    CBDunkerson, because I asked Tom that question over at WUWT. The debate has no other possible benefit. But please show me the writeup here that describes the caveats of fig 3b in any of the dozen places where 3a is used because I have not seen it. I agree with your points, especially as you stated them in 110. My only reason for continuing my very minor discussion is to get an explanation for Tom of how figure 3b can be considered standalone.
  38. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Eric, I'd agree on the 'ridiculous' in that your point has zero apparent relevance regardless of whether or not you are correct. So why bother? What possible benefit could come from a debate over whether 3b can stand on its own or not? Again, while we have two situations of some information not being included they are obviously very different: In the SkS instance the additional details in figure 3b were not shown... but the writeup accurately described the conclusions of the paper. In each of the Michaels examples the details not shown were precisely those which would have proved that the claims he was making about the papers were false. The difference between 'not including every bit of detail' (heck, the next complaint could be that SkS didn't use exactly the same text to describe the figure, or didn't quote the entire paper... 'they excluded information!') and 'removing just the details which prove what you are saying is false' ought to be clear to everyone. So if you aren't trying to make a case for the SkS usage being somehow 'wrong' why continue talking about it at all?
  39. Eric (skeptic) at 22:45 PM on 20 January 2012
    Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Bill, I believe that 3a is perfectly understandable without 3b. I also said above and several times at WUWT that removing 3b is not equivalent to the Michaels graph editing. All I am disputing here is Tom's statement that 3b makes sense as a standalone graph (obviously including the labels from 3a). My point is very specific and narrow, perhaps even "ridiculous", but I won't let it be conflated with something I did not say.
  40. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Oh yeah, Eric ('skeptic'), no one would ever figure out the whole 'range of climate sensitivity predictions based on various studies and types of evidence with the highest probability estimates centering on this temperature band' thing without figure 'b' now, would they? (Well, I had, but hell, I went to Art School for a while there.) This is your tit-for-tat equivalence? Pull the other one! Seriously: this really makes you all look completely ridiculous. Still, by all means keep at it, because it really does make you all look completely ridiculous.
  41. Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 1 - the background
    Hank #23, Thanks for flagging that paper up - it's been added to the pile for my next bit of investigation into the whole gas hydrates topic.
  42. Eric (skeptic) at 22:14 PM on 20 January 2012
    Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Tom, I disgree. The primary purpose of fig 3b is to add details to 3a, and 3b would serve very little purpose standalone, confusing at best. Can you at least agree that 3b is subordinate to 3a? BTW, your reply to me has appeared at WUWT.
  43. Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
    To make a point: The latest AIRS methane imaging suggest that not only the ESAS is a major source for methane uptake. And another uptake is observed recently.. Before 2007, CH4 mixing ratio was nearly stable. The average mixing ratio during the last 6 years over major northern hemispheric countries is similar. However, there has been a significant increase in tropospheric CH4 concentrations after 2007 in most northern hemispheric areas, with slightly larger increases over China. EurekAlert
  44. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    You don't really even need to go to Eli's (which is working just fine as far as I can see). If you look carefully you can see intriguing artifacts, even at this resolution. Look at the RCP 4.5 dashed line at about 2045, for instance. Or the truncation of a dash in RCP 8.5 shortly after (both of these are detailed at Eli's). But you might also want to inspect the intriguingly truncated dash in RCP 2.6 at 2026. Or RCP 8.5 at 2076, for that matter. Or try this - copy each of the largest files available by clicking the embedded images above, superimpose the Michaels graph over the original in Photoshop on a separate layer, shift-resize it to perfectly match the original (it's slightly smaller, but identical in ratios, labels, and font, so zooms out nicely to overlay perfectly) and then switch this upper layer on and off as you sweep around and scrutinise the graphs.
  45. A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    Woody@12 - the sunspot paper clearly concludes a reduced role for solar variations. The ENSO graph needs an unobscured link - it reflects neither the cycles shown in SKS on October 10: http://www.skepticalscience.com/el-nino-southern-oscillation.htm nor the NOAA report (p.22) of Jan 17, 2012: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf The Timmerman analysis and the NOAA report line up, the tinypic link ... not so much.
  46. Arctic methane outgassing on the E Siberian Shelf part 2 - an interview with Dr Natalia Shakhova
    Gentlemen, I would appreciate your comments on a PowerPoint I put together of a composite of images of the Arctic from a satellite with microwave sensors (as I understand it), taken in January. Please contact me at my blog for the actual ppt file. The crocodoc thing is not as easy to look at: http://crocodoc.com/5UOfu7A Blog: http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com
  47. A Comprehensive Review of the Causes of Global Warming
    The papers all seem to make excessively confident statements about solar influences. See http://www.leif.org/research/The%20long-term%20variation%20of%20solar%20activity.pdf So if Solar influence on Climate is "on shaky ground if we don’t even know solar input" then any paper that uses “solar forcings” as a part of its analysis has very dubious value. I also read suggestions that ENSO was a cooling influence during the period from 1979 to around 2005 and this is just bizarre - http://i43.tinypic.com/33agh3c.jpg The similarity between this graph and this http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual.png is surely no coincidence so how can anyone suggest the influence of ENSO during the period mentioned could be anything but strongly positive?
  48. Stephen Baines at 16:02 PM on 20 January 2012
    Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    I just tried to go back to Eli's site to double check after reading through his evidence before. No luck...can't seem to scroll to the critical image now. Anyway, it definitely is unethical to just erase parts of a graph in an attempt to make an argument. That is basically fabricating a pattern. It's just a short step between that and completely fabricating data. That's a firing offense in academia, to my mind. It simply boggles the mind that Michaels would be careless enough to leave evidence of that.
  49. Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter of Inconvenient Data
    Eric (skeptic), I responded to your post on WUWT only to find that WUWT no longer accepts my posts. The (-snip-) has strengthened the walls of his (-snip-)'s castle. In short, there is a common but not universal convention to use common axis for two distinct figures when their axis are identical. This was done in Knutti and Hegerl, and has no bearing on whether 3a and 3b are distinct. That they are distinct is established conclusively by the fact that they are distinctly enumerated.
    Response:

    [DB] Inflammatory snipped.

  50. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #1
    This is a very interesting discussion on moderation, transparency, and the like. I have to say I consider increased transparency the correct action, both here and elsewhere. That said - I wonder if various skeptic blogs will extend their moderation to including a "Bore Hole" for deleted/edited comments? Or updates? Or links indicating when a current posting contradicts a previous one (an issue at WUWT, compare this and the later post, for example, to call the kettle black). Will they live up to the standards they call out for SkS? Or are those blogs holding others to standards they are not willing to adhere to?

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