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Comments 67351 to 67400:

67351. Carbon500 at 06:44 AM on 30 December 2011
       Infrared Iris Never Bloomed
       Has anyone used a 'modern' version of John Tyndall's 1861 experiment to demonstrate the effects of CO2? More specifically, is there any laboratory data relating to the effect of the additional 75ppm of CO2 added to the atmosphere since 1958? Any comments would be much appreciated - thank you.
67352. John Hartz at 06:25 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Suggested reading: “Capitalism vs. the Climate”, The Nation (USA) magazine, Nov 28, 2011 print edition. Click here to access this in-depth and thought-provoking cover story by Naomi Klein.
67353. Riccardo at 06:00 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       John Hartz @28 thank for sharing Menken's thoughts, so prescient of contemporary drift of our democracies toward populism. An unwelcome corollary of populism is that who's in office or in charge of something do not take any responsability because he's just representing the will of the people. What Menken ironically call the perfection of democracy actually is the end of it.
67354. william5331 at 05:46 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Lets stop banging our heads against a wall, trying to convince the climate change deniers. Instead ---- Even the most stubborn conservative can hardly deny that fossil fuel is a non renewable resource, that we are destroying mountains and rivers to get at coal, that we are hostage to some pretty shonky regimes that just happen to have fossil fuel resources, that we are destroying the society of other fossil fuel rich countries by supporting their local Mafia, that we are pumping massive amounts of arsenic, mercury and even radioactivity into the atmosphere from our coal fired power plants etc. etc. The very measures that would address the above problems would also address climate change http://mtkass.blogspot.com/2010/10/forget-climate-change.html
67355. Philippe Chantreau at 05:39 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Guiganbresil "Both viewpoints have their irrational extremes - blatant environmental abuse for petty profit on the one hand, and wholesale abuse of human rights on the other." Funny, considering that blatant environemental abuse is iself so often associated with Human rights abuse. As for that DDT issue, why did you believe the version that you just tried to regurgitate here? How much did you research it? Concerning those who supposedly see fossil fuels as an opportunity to benefit mankind, it is patent that the amount of evidence they would need to change their viewpoint is infinite. That seems to be especially the case for those who sit at the top of the pyramid of "benefit."
67356. muoncounter at 05:07 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       This is more than a top-down, leadership-driven issue. Not many (especially those outside the US) may be aware that a fundamental shift in US environmental/political life took place in the November 2010 mid-term elections. An electorate fed up with what they were told was 'big government' was seduced into electing a large number of inexperienced, ideologically-driven folks both as their US representatives and their state government. As a result, environmental policy is now more of a mixed bag of conflicting priorities than ever. This report is an excellent summary, providing a context for some of the political struggles on the larger stage. Our biggest challenges are: (1) State budget crises that will severely limit environmental agencies’ capacity to implement and enforce the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act and other environmental laws; (2) Unprecedented ideological opposition to environmental progress among too many state legislators across the Midwest; and (3) The public’s focus on job creation and retention rather than environmental and other quality of life issues. This is an example of the principle that "All politics is local": Politicians must appeal to the simple, mundane and everyday concerns of those who elect them into office. Those personal issues, rather than big and intangible ideas, are often what voters care most about... Climate change will remain 'big and intangible' - until we figure out a way to make it personal; and that's a tall order, as this year of disastrous weather was very personal indeed.
67357. John Hartz at 04:47 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       The Mencken quote in the following letter-to-the-editor is priceless. Paul Krugman’s “Republicans against science” (Views, Aug. 30) states that “odds are that one of these years the world’s greatest nation will find itself ruled by a party that is aggressively anti-science, indeed anti-knowledge.” This line reminds me of the great H.L. Mencken’s words in the Baltimore Evening Sun in 1920: “As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people....On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” Woodrow Wilson was president at the time; to be followed by Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover. We all know what happened next. Peter W. Gerrard, Kehlen, Luxembourg Letters to the International Herald Tribune Politics and Science
67358. CBDunkerson at 04:22 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       guinganbresil wrote: "the banning of DDT in 1972 (~90,000,000 premature deaths, billions suffering from malaria)..." Nonsense. This is the same kind of ridiculous fiction we regularly see applied to global warming. The 'ban' in 1972 prohibited the use of DDT for agricultural spraying in the United States. How has that caused millions of deaths / billions to suffer malaria? Spraying for public health reasons, i.e. to control malaria, remains legal in the U.S. to this day and the 'ban' never involved any form of spraying outside the US. "Some see the Earth essentially as a gift to mankind - one that deserves stewardship and respect, but is essentially for our benefit. On the other hand, some see humans as interlopers mooching off the Earth - so the Earth should be protected from bad human activity." Actually, I think most environmentalists see it more in terms of 'do not foul your own nest'.
67359. guinganbresil at 04:06 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       I think there is a fundamental difference in how the left and right look at the relationship between mankind and the Earth. Some see the Earth essentially as a gift to mankind - one that deserves stewardship and respect, but is essentially for our benefit. On the other hand, some see humans as interlopers mooching off the Earth - so the Earth should be protected from bad human activity. Both viewpoints have their irrational extremes - blatant environmental abuse for petty profit on the one hand, and wholesale abuse of human rights on the other... If you must make a judgement call, just compare a two of examples: Exxon Valdez spill (~250,000 sea birds, ~3,000 sea mammals) to the banning of DDT in 1972 (~90,000,000 premature deaths, billions suffering from malaria)... I believe this dichotomy in viewpoint underpins the difference in the conservative vs. liberal response to AGW. Some see fossil fuels (and nuclear...) as a opportunity to benefit mankind - quite a bit of evidence would be needed to convince them to abandon the use without an attractive alternative. The other viewpoint would easily accept that something that benefits humans must be adverse to the environment... and must be stopped.
67360. Stephen Baines at 02:47 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       I agree with DB about the messaging from the leadership. The poll numbers that mc cites for republicans who disbelieve AGW really increased over the last decade. It also responded to things like Al Gore's movie, the 2007 IPCC release and "climatgate" reaction. All that indicates the influence of top down messaging (working against other headwinds). Basically, I think the recent marketing strategy of the conservative/republican leadership (since ca 1994) has increasignly been to elicit broad populist distrust of targeted issues that can be characterized as elitist, intellectual or liberal. These issues are characterized as attempts to impose a different set of core values on "regular people" or that they reflect self interest on the part of the elite (implicitly at the expense of the regular folk through taxes, regulation). The focus on specific ersonalities (Gore, Hillary, Pelosi, Obama) allows them to paint movie villains that fit these preconceptions neatly and provide a focus for distrust. "Scientists", with their white coats, crazy hair and evil laughs, are easy targets too. Linking these personalities to specific issues then becomes a form of branding by association. AGW, Al Gore and Dr. Frankenstein become inseparable. It's a strategy that can be applied to a large range of issues with relative ease because it builds on a set of preexisting inclinations and a few carefully crafted characterizations developed over a long period of time. Especially in the current economic climate, it effectively generates anger and activism among the rank and file, while also serving monied special interests that fill the campaign coffers. Its quite brilliant from a purely strategic point of view. The democrats try to mimic it, but I think their rank and file are less susceptible to this approach. The problem is that this broad brush strategy generates such wide ranging cynicism about intelligent discourse and such political and social polarization that any basis for policy discussion and compromise gets "boxed in" by partisan fervor, even within the party itself. Also, because the strategy seems to be based primarily on locating convenient targets that elicit both populist distrust of the other party and special interest dollars, reality and policy positions can easily become divorced from each other. Eventually both things make it hard for the leadership to lead in a meaningful way. Personally, I think we're seeing the downside in congress and in the Republican primary race right now. The need to resort to transparent tricks like referring to the rich only as "job creators," also highlights the inherent tensions in this appraoch. I'd like to think it will eventually force a reconsideration or recalibration of strategies that will enable conservatives to see the point of embracing the science behind AGW and other issues. But that could be slow.
67361. climatehawk1 at 02:06 AM on 30 December 2011
       The Debunking Handbook Part 2: The Familiarity Backfire Effect
       I think the formula of simply stating "Mythbusting facts" works well.
67362. markx at 01:42 AM on 30 December 2011
       Medieval project gone wrong
       Thanks Tom #44, for the references. I see Mann has maps there (original paper on both MWP (MCA) and LIA) showing the position and types of the proxies – and I see the maps were derived from the models (6 climate simulations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model GISS-ER (S12) Following a control run to establish stable initial conditions, six transient runs extending from 850 to 1900) I must say it worried me a bit that there are not a vast number of proxies for the MWA, and those (especially the few ice cores) seem to be in areas which did tend to show warming. But it is certainly beyond me to discuss such modelling and such a detailed paper any further. I note Mann did provide some explanation of the pattern in some more good maps in figure 3, (showing the difference between the MWP and the LIA For comparison with model simulation results, it is useful to eliminate the influence of the choice of modern reference period by examining the pattern of the MCA-LIA difference itself (Fig. 3). The MCA-LIA pattern highlights the extent to which the MCA is both more “La Niña–like ……(and)…. suggestive of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and closely related Arctic Oscillation (AO) sea-level pressure (SLP) ……
67363. muoncounter at 01:12 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       DB: "the issue more properly is not that there isn't more American conservatives that agree with AGW" The polls say otherwise. "their elected representatives that have kowtowed to the "special interests"" Who was it that said we get the kind of government that we deserve? de Tocqueville: ... a democracy could see "a multitude of men," uniformly alike, equal, "constantly circling for petty pleasures," unaware of fellow citizens, and subject to the will of a powerful state which exerted an "immense protective power". That is an accurate description of the current state of our government; just substitute 'corporate greed' for 'state.'
67364. VoxRat at 01:04 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       @13 Tom Smerling: "Inglis did not lose "because he acknowledged the reality of AGW," at least according to those closest to the race." Yeah, I got the impression from that NPR piece it was due to the AGW thing, but now that you mentioned it, I read up elsewhere and see that there were other issues.
67365. Daniel Bailey at 00:35 AM on 30 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       @ Paul D Speaking as an American, Republican-voting conservative who agrees with climate science and AGW, the issue more properly is not that there isn't more American conservatives that agree with AGW. There are ample conservatives who believe in the science (what little they know of it). The real issue is that they are not in a position of authority and that they do not speak out. The rank and file American conservative is more preoccupied with job security, keeping the lights on and feeding hungry mouths that depend on them. It is thus their elected representatives that have kowtowed to the "special interests" (that have a vested interest in the status quo) that comprise the real stumbling block. When you cannot stop the avalanche then preventing the snowballs from rolling downhill that causes the avalanche is the agenda being prosecuted by the lobbyists.
67366. Tom Curtis at 00:32 AM on 30 December 2011
       Medieval project gone wrong
       markx, if you want more information, the original paper and supplementary material are available online. The essential point is that "a proxy data set comprising more than a thousand" proxies is used to determine temperatures at particular locations. The number of proxies reduces as you go back in time, with only 20 screened proxies in 900 AD. Knowledge of weather patterns associated with ENSO events, PDO, NAO etc is then used to project temperatures for regions without proxies from the data available in other areas. Such a method has significant uncertainties. Consequently the map is marked with various hatch marks to indicate whether or not the projections in particular areas pass one of two tests of statistical significance. In areas with cross hatches, the projection passes both tests. Areas with neither cross, left, or right hatch marks fail both tests of statistical significance and should be considered dubious. The supplementary material includes a map showing the location of all proxies used (fig S1). Also of interest is figure S9 which shows the pattern or warmth for the interval 900-1100 AD.
67367. Tom Curtis at 00:17 AM on 30 December 2011
       UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
       chris @19:

       "That hasn't happened with the UAH duo who have continued a 20-year assertion that their (ever-changing) analyses are correct and demonstrate a fundamental incompatibility with physical understanding. They have shown little interest in addressing the apparent inconsistencies which turn out to a very large part to be due to errors in the very analyses they have asserted to be "precise"."

       The phrase, "often wrong, but never in doubt" comes to mind.
67368. markx at 23:58 PM on 29 December 2011
       Medieval project gone wrong
       Ah, paleoclimate proxies. (I just read the comments on the MWP page). Should have realized that myself, pretty obvious - sorry!
67369. markx at 23:52 PM on 29 December 2011
       Medieval project gone wrong
       Thanks CB! #41. Makes perfect sense with the pair of maps (MWP and today compared with baseline temps of 1960-1990) and the difference is dramatic! Still wondering about the source (hence accuracy) of the MWP data (ie, Tropical Pacific? Central Asia?, North America? ), and still wondering what could cause such a 'roving' temperature aberration.
67370. Paul D at 23:48 PM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       I have to disagree with the moderators. Because American politics is so polarised due to fear of the media and big corporations, then writing an article about a conservative politicians views about climate science makes the article political. But the problem isn't with the article, the problem is with American politics and that is why the article is justified. Statistically there should be more American conservatives that agree with AGW, the fact that there isn't suggests that more than just facts are distorting the stats.
67371. chris at 23:36 PM on 29 December 2011
       UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
       victull, I agree very much with Tom's summary above. I also don't have a problem with Dessler's statement. As Tom says the measurement of tropospheric temperature trends using satellite MSU (or weather balloons) is difficult, and there are subjective choices to be made in merging satellite records, correcting for extraneous contributions to apparent temperature etc. It's perfectly acceptable to be skeptical of these measures. They are useful though. Largely (but not exclusively) through the efforts of the RSS team we can conclude that apparent tropospheric warming is so far not inconsistent with expectations from physical understanding of the earth response to radiative forcing. That's a very important conclusion, and unfortunately one that Christy/Spencer seem determined to misrepresent. In fact scientists generally love finding apparent incompatibilities between predicted and observational phenomena (in this case between apparent tropospheric temperatures and physics-based expectations); we know there's science to be done and discoveries to be made in resolving these. Most scientists use them productively to focus efforts that advance our knowledge/methodologies; very few use them as S/C to pursue non-scientific aims. This is apparent by looking at the published work of the UAH and RSS teams. The RSS work simply inspires confidence that bright minds are focussing on resolving the issues productively. That doesn't mean that the RSS data is necessarily "correct". But their analyses are supported by scientifically justifiable choices, with careful consideration of errors and so on. That hasn't happened with the UAH duo who have continued a 20-year assertion that their (ever-changing) analyses are correct and demonstrate a fundamental incompatibility with physical understanding. They have shown little interest in addressing the apparent inconsistencies which turn out to a very large part to be due to errors in the very analyses they have asserted to be "precise". As for Dessler, it would be interesting to know the context in which he said the statement you copied. (One of) Dessler's expertises is in analysis of tropospheric water vapour and how this responds to greenhouse forcing to provide climate feedbacks. We know that tropospheric water vapour has increased (itself an independent confirmation of a warming tropsophere), and while the water vapour feedback largely arises from changes in water vapour in the upper troposphere, Dessler's work would be made a whole lot easier if the vertical structure of tropospheric temperature, and its response to greenhouse forcing, was known more accurately. Then the relationship between absolute and relative humidity, and the strength of the water vapour feedback, etc., could be determined rather more accurately. So I expect Dessler's statement may be related to a frustration with the continuing uncertainty in these measures in that they directly impinge on his work. In Dessler's papers I've read that address water vapour feedbacks in response to surface warming he doesn't use satellite MSU temperature data...
67372. littlerobbergirl at 22:57 PM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       CBD - i know a few other 'exceptions to the rule', not 'neocons' but hard core free market conservatives. one is actually taking his company into renewable energy where he sees a big business opportunity. nice subversive use of the 'al gore' dog whistle in the excerpt; talking to them in their own language!
67373. CBDunkerson at 22:33 PM on 29 December 2011
       Medieval project gone wrong
       markx, the answers to your questions and more information about the map can be found in the article it came from; MWP article
67374. CBDunkerson at 22:28 PM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       A neo-conservative who accepts basic scientific facts and makes rational suggestions? Suddenly I think I understand how AGW deniers must feel when confronted with proof that their understanding of 'reality' is flawed in some way. I've gotten too used to these people being 'wrong' about everything... science, economics, foreign policy, social issues (though those are more in the realm of opinion). The last time I really agreed with something they did was when W Bush spoke out against anti-muslim bigotry in the US... and I couldn't believe he was on the right side of that either. That said, I think I'm on solid ground saying this guy is the exception rather than the rule. The idea that rational scientific discussion about AGW, evolution, anything environmentally related, et cetera could flourish in any major branch of US 'conservatism' (as much a misnomer as 'skeptics' IMO) seems more than far-fetched.
67375. markx at 21:45 PM on 29 December 2011
       Medieval project gone wrong
       Thanks Tom #37. I'm not quite sure what the map is showing? It is titled "Temperature Pattern for the Medieval Warm Period" but you state underneath "...represents the global average increase in temperature from the 1960-1990 baseline to current temperatures...." I gather this map/chart is a three century mean of the MWP 'time'? The rise is then compared with which period? Given the doubts on the data we do have for that period, is all this information really available? (Sorry for all the questions, and I made some assumptions to keep the questioning to one post). Thanks Rob #30. Nothing being argued at all. Just commenting on perhaps the very reason the main topic of the article is of such interest to many, and why it will probably become more so as more such reports come out.
67376. Tom Curtis at 17:52 PM on 29 December 2011
       UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
       jmorpuss @17, the book is a university level text book on remote sensing using microwaves that does not deal explicitly with temperature sensing directly. Specifically, the Microwave Sensing Unit and the Advanced Microwave Sensing Unit are not discussed even when missions with those instruments where discussed. The author is a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the book appears to be well respected. Consequently it would be a very useful resource for anybody seeking detailed background knowledge to understand issues that effect detection of air temperatures using satellites, especially if they are familiar with calculus. (It would be heavy going if you are not.) Clearly, therefore, it is a relevant resource for the topic of the main post. What is not on topic here is your usual rambling expositions of your crackpot theory of global warming based on physics that you clearly do not understand.
67377. jmorpuss at 17:01 PM on 29 December 2011
       UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
       Tom Curtis Do you think this book on remote sensing is worth reading or is it not welcome hear. It's explains alot of interesting things regarding the electromagnetic processes and interactions http://www.iki.rssi.ru/asp/pub_sha1/pub_sha1.htm
67378. owl905 at 15:52 PM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Pertinax's distraction actually summed up the response problem perfectly. Stupidity is intimidated by the nature and foundation of the problem. They don't 'get it', but they do understand 'lefties', 'the menace of socialism', and 'ivory tower parasites'. This is 'their time'. If anyone knows a way to demonstrate to them the consequences of their stupidity policies, yesterday would be an excellent time to lay it out.
67379. Tristan at 15:36 PM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Jimspy, I think those promoting promoting policies that fly in the face of both the scientific and economic majorities are practicing deception, plain and simple. Hence: Decepticon.
67380. jimspy at 14:47 PM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       It's been moved and seconded that a new way be found to distinguish neo-cons or other intellectually honest conservatives from those who deny science. Apparently the word "agnatology" means "anti-science." I propose that a new term such as "agna-con" or some such commingling of "agnatology" and "conservative" be coined to make this distinction. Less frivolously, I think some way should be found to place a premium on robust dialog with the realistic brand of conservatives - inviting them to the table, relishing the conversation, agreeing to disagree politely where appropriate, and generally making it clear that such discourse is the order of the day. In other words, MARGINALIZE the agna-cons and send the message that, until they've "read the memo" and signed on to the idea that Yes, Virginia, There IS Global Warming, they are the skunks at the garden party.
67381. Pertinax at 14:05 PM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       It is an election year. The Democrats will use anything including climate change to pursue their political aims and the Republicans will oppose what ever they say. It is far easier for conservatives to just deny AGW than to try and fight all the increasing spending, taxing regulations and subsidies to Democrat causes that will be proposed in its name. So they will do it. { - off topic political statements snipped -}
       Moderator Response: [muoncounter] Please restrict your comments to the topic of the post. This is not about politics; it is about a conservative response to climate change science.
67382. Tom Curtis at 13:52 PM on 29 December 2011
       UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
       victull @14, I would support Dessler's claim. The simple fact is that measuring tropospheric temperatures by satellite is very complex. This is made more difficult because more recent instruments use a slightly different frequency than did earlier instruments, and hence weight different altitudes differently. In addition to complexities involved in correlating measurements from different instruments on different satellites, you must compensate for orbital drift, diurnal drift and changing altitude. You must do so over a great range of atmospheric conditions, with corrections over the tropics not necessarily appropriate in the sub-arctic due to different altitudes of the tropopause and humidity levels. On top of that you are relying on instruments that sample a significant proportion of the stratosphere (which has an opposite temperature trend to the troposphere) and which have different weights for low altitudes over ocean and over land due to the different reflectivity of land and water to microwaves. These difficulties all apply to the TMT channel which is based on a single instrument (in each satellite). The TLT temperature series is derived from the TMT channel by various ad hoc adjustments, based on either the difference between data from vertical and lateral views (UAH), on microwave radiation models (RSS). It is no wonder then, that the four teams measuring TMT (channel 2) trends obtain four different results. (Note, by my reading V&G measure the trend of Channel 2, ie, TMT; not TLT as shown in table 1 above. Further, Fu et al measure a hybrid channel of their own devising which does not strictly correspond to either TMT or TLT.) Nor is it any surprise that the two teams measuring TLT trends also come up with different results. This situation represents a stark contrast to the measurement of surface trends. The different methodological choices of the various measurements of surface trends are known,and can be easily compensated for. When that is done so that we have apples to apples comparisons, the resulting trends are almost identical, and well within error. Therefore we can be very confident that the surface trend is very close to that obtained by GIStemp. (Not HadCRU as it does not have global coverage.) With satellites, however, we know UAH is under estimating the trend with a high degree of confidence. However, we do not know that RSS is correct, or that it itself does not also underestimate the trend.
67383. JohnMashey at 13:36 PM on 29 December 2011
       UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
       Good stuff (but feel free to delete after seen) Minor suggestions: in the tables, can you get the decimal points to line up? That helps, visually. Alternatively, albeit at hint of unwarranted precision, make them all 3 decimals. Also, you might want to link to: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/the-real-global-warming-signal/
67384. victull at 13:12 PM on 29 December 2011
       UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 1 - Overconfidence
       Chris & Tom Thanks for the detailed information. In summary, Spencer and Christy have made errors in the UAH analysis which they subsequently corrected but not as much as other scientists in the field identified (ie RSS analysing the same data). Spencer and Christy then distorted their results in statements which were inaccurate and tended to mislead. Well clearly Spencer and Christy are not babes in the woods and therefore some intent is evident. In rightly criticizing Spencer & Christy, I fail to see why Dessler's statement was used. Dessler cast doubt on the value of satellite atmospheric temperature measurements in general (including RSS) which I expect dana, Tom and Chris would not support.
67385. Steve L at 11:19 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Tom: though I consider myself a conservative (I grew up in tar sand land, Alberta), I'm not an expert on conservative thought. Wikipedia is probably better. Having spent a lot of time reading Antiwar.com (libertarian site) in the run-up and prosecution of the Iraq War, I think it's fair to say that a significant fraction of conservatives hate neocons. I think most conservatives are distrustful of big government projects; they are wary of spending money in far away places outside the oversight of their democracy. War is a big government project of the sort that should challenge conservative values, yet neocons support it enthusiastically. Other international interventionism (climate treaty emission targets, trading schemes, and foreign offsets) will I think find more resistance among typically isolationist conservatives than among neocons (who seem to weigh international opportunities and risks differently). Engagement of paleocons in addressing AGW is likely further away, and possibly on a different road, than engagement of neocons. That's my oversimple opinion, if it's of any help.
67386. Tom Smerling at 11:18 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       @4 John H. -- Good point re: many Republicans. It's worth another post. @7 VoxRat re: Inglis. Inglis did not lose "because he acknowledged the reality of AGW," at least according to those closest to the race. According to Bob Jones U poli Sci prof Linda Abrams, "it was a sequence of things'...over four years." Which of his many breaks with conservative orthodoxy cost him the most? The article concludes: "The answer may well be "D, all of the above," plus a general sense that he wasn't reflecting voters' mood along with the option of a credible candidate that hadn't appeared before, Abrams said."
67387. Tom Smerling at 10:24 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       @9 Steve L & @10 Thanks for catching the bad link. It's now repaired. :) BW, in addition to Tobin's challenge, be sure to check out Wehner's excellent response, both linked at this follow-up post to the one above: A thoughtful conservative -- challenged @3 Steve L Good point about not lumping all neo-cons, conservatives and Republicans together. What would you suggest as a more accurate way to characterize Wehner and neo-cons vis-a-vis conservatives?
67388. muoncounter at 10:15 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       JohnH: Ironic though, that Nixon established the EPA and passed the Clean Air Act; his ideological descendants would eliminate both (among other things - like funding for NOAA and NWS).
67389. skept.fr at 10:12 AM on 29 December 2011
       Renewable energy is too expensive
       Also of interest, this IPCC SRREN 2011 figure : range in recent levelized cost of energy for selected commercially available RE technologies in comparison to recent non-renewable energy costs. It must be precised that this is the cost for producing electricity (or heat, or fuel) from RE local units, but a global energy transition will require additional costs : to transform the infrastructure of distribution (grid) and to electrify many final uses (for example public transport). That's why this transition must begin now and be as progressive as possible. As your article put it, the true cost of fossil sources is underestimated because externalities (climatic and non-climatic) are ignored by market. A pigovian tax on carbon would restore intergenerational equity and real price of carbon. Many economists agree on that point and it is unfortunate that policymakers delay their decision. All the more so that the actual dependency to fossil ressources threatens economy in case of high volatility. Climate-energy policy should be rational, cooperative and bipartisan.
67390. AnotherBee at 09:49 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       @9 Steve L, no it's a bad link. It should be http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/12/23/climate-change-conservatives/
67391. Rob Honeycutt at 09:16 AM on 29 December 2011
       Medieval project gone wrong
       Something interesting I just now noticed. If you compare that CO2Science interactive map with the IPCC MWP map that Tom just posted... it looks very much like the Idso's cherry picked their way around the large areas of cooler MWP. I haven't done a detailed look into it but it sure looks like the skip over most of the Baltic region and into Siberia. They skip that swath across central Africa. They skip western Canada and the north slope of Alaska. The IPCC map makes it look like there IS data for those regions that the Idso's are not showing.
67392. Steve L at 09:14 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Am I the only one who gets a weird 403 Forbidden when clicking on the link to Tobin's 'Environmentalist Hysteria' article?
67393. BKsea at 08:52 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       I don't know whether to be encouraged or dismayed. I am actually counting on the continued denial of conservatives coupled with the increasingly undeniable evidence of the truth to eventually break the backs of the conservatives. And case in point of the inability of people to separate "is it happening?" from "what should we do?": The editor argues against an article saying that warming is happening by saying but warming may be good.
67394. VoxRat at 08:00 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Congressman Bob Inglis (with impeccable conservative credentials) lost his bid for re-election, apparently because he acknowledged the reality of anthropogenic global warming. National Public Radio has an interview with him here: http://www.npr.org/2011/12/24/144231819/ousted-by-tea-party-rep-inglis-looks-back
67395. Stephen Baines at 07:59 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       There will always be a sizable group of those that are "skeptical" for whatever reason. But, I'm more hopeful that empirical reality will eventually trump political expediency, and that conservatives and republicans as a whole will begin to see the societal and political costs of holding positions that ignore empirical reality. I'm just not sure of the time frame - and there is the rub.
67396. skept.fr at 07:52 AM on 29 December 2011
       Foster and Rahmstorf Measure the Global Warming Signal
       #90 Albatross : of course we can agree on your last point. (But very frankly, such careful analysis of press releases is not my cup of tea, because press releases have no scientific value.) #88 Tom (sorry I miss your message when answering to others). a) Don't understand your point. Long term solar influence (in the sense of #89) is not particularly related to the 11 yr cycle variation, but to multicycle trend (if any). And spectral change may be more complex than we thought, there is a current debate (for example SIM-SORCE and VIRGO-SOHO do not find the same UV versus total variation in recent cycle 23). b) Point already discussed, but not relevant for the question (precision of GHG attribution) as a removal of ENSO (from MEI data) cannot be seriously described as a "precise" analysis of forced and unforced multidecadal variability. c) Spencer's vague assertions on his blog are not mine. (As I said to Albatross, afterthoughts of UAH team are not exactly an intellectual challenge IMO!) I don't know for Christy, but I recall that Spencer have written on his blog he believes GW comes fron "Mother Nature". I think this is a false belief, and I observe that when Spencer tried with Braswell to advance more scientific arguments, he was contradicted by Dressler. Sufficient to build my (provisional) opinion about the importance of his Mother Nature hypothesis, when compared to dozens of convergent articles on observation, detection or attribution.
67397. DrTsk at 07:00 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Man, great effort but convincing science skeptics (many times all sort of science) is a steep uphill battle. The science is getting more solid by the day, but the problem is that it will require sth. spectacular to happen.
67398. John Hartz at 06:50 AM on 29 December 2011
       A thoughtful conservative perspective on climate
       Contrary to popular opinion, not all of the members of the Republican Party are anti-environment and anti-AGW. You can see for yourself by checking out the website of the Republicans for Environmental Protection (RFP). In fact, a link to SkS’s own, “The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism” is prominently displayed on the front page of the RFP’s website.
67399. Albatross at 06:29 AM on 29 December 2011
       Foster and Rahmstorf Measure the Global Warming Signal
       skept.fr @89, "Please, recall the precise background. The very last part of the discussion here is related to the SkS paper on Christy and UAH." Please note that I am, of course, very well aware of the background and context.Please note too the objective of the post; specifically note too that it is not meant to be an overview of attribution papers. Dana merely cited two recent examples of papers in the literature that challenge Spencer's ridiculous (and unsubstantiated) assertion/rhetoric. I agree with you that of the two papers, HK11 is the attribution study. But again, it is a moot point, because neither FR11 nor SkS claimed that RF11 was an attribution paper. We also seem to be in agreement that Spencer and Christy are (probably) knowingly engaging in rhetoric and making unsubstantiated and misleading claims-- those are the key issues. I hope we can agree that that is very troubling and not at all consistent with the actions of reputable scientists. No?
67400. muoncounter at 05:57 AM on 29 December 2011
       UAH Misrepresentation Anniversary, Part 2 - Of Cherries and Volcanoes
       dana#30: "El Chichon pulled the temperature down below where it would have otherwise been (which is moving upwards due to the El Nino)." Agreed. If you download the data from FR2011 and graph UAH/RSS and the three externals (MEI, AOD and TSI; each lagged appropriately), that picture is clear. Without el Chicon, the el Nino warming of 1983 would have been much larger. That's only a 'cooling effect' in the strictest sense of the word - and that could mislead a reader to conclude that the apparent coolings on either side of 1983 were primarily due to the volcano. This further reinforces the fact that Christy's 'two volcanic eruptions tilted the trend' is incorrect: 1985's cooling is better described as the tail end of the volcanic aerosols coupled with a negative MEI.

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