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Deplore_This at 12:25 PM on 2 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Dayton 1163, 1164 and 1165
@ scaddenp 1166 and 1167Thank you for the responses. However, I had previously found and reviewed on my own the course syllabuses for your suggested courses before posting.
Reading the syllabuses of these courses they include basic discussions of what GCM is but not how to do it. None of these courses give the student the opportunity to construct and run GCM and measure their predictive capability by hindcasting.
I am candidly stating that I am a skeptic of these models and I’m trying to understand the science. I have been frustrated that everything I find is a consensus opinion on these models but I haven’t found anything that allows me to get under the hood and see how the models work for myself and to evaluate the predictive sensitivity of these models.
I’m not looking for a book. I’m retired and have the time and the money to pay for the best university course I can take. I have the academic qualifications and professional technical knowledge and experience to dig deep into this. My problem is I haven’t found one. I’ve reviewed the curriculum of the top environmental science university programs and I haven’t found a single course. I am asking for a recommendation.
Thank you again for your response but I still don’t know where to find a course that achieves my objective. I appreciate any assistance you can provide.
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scaddenp at 08:33 AM on 2 July 2020Models are unreliable
I would also recommend that read the chapter in the IPCC WG1 report on evaluation of climate models before getting too far into the course. (chp 9 in the latest report).
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scaddenp at 08:26 AM on 2 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This: Not exactly sure what you mean by "climate temperature models referenced by the IPCC" but I assume you mean the GCMs used by CMIP to predict future climate (of which temperature is but variable that can be extracted). If this is the case, then note that these are the best means we have available to predict future climate, but by themselves say nothing about the validity of anthropogenic climate change. They could be completely wrong do to some fundimental algorithmic error which would affect their ability to infer the future, but say nothing about the accuracy of the physic of anthopogenic climate change.
The science does depend on other models (but not necessarily computer models), especially the radiative properties of gases and the Radiative Transfer Equations in particular. These have real-world applications and the detailed work was initially done by USAF because laser-guided bombs depend on them.
There are rather more direct ways of checking validity of science (eg empirical evidence). You can also directly measure the increase in surface irradiation. I rather suspect that you would agree that an increase in surface irradation because sun increased its output would warm the planet. The GHE can do that too. -
Tom Dayton at 07:23 AM on 2 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This, you could also simply search the internet for climate modelling textbook, and you'll get a plethora of books.
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Tom Dayton at 07:07 AM on 2 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This, also from that simple search of the internet I quickly found a course at the U. of Washington, Swedish e-Science Education (taught in English), several by MIT, University of California Santa Cruz...
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Tom Dayton at 06:55 AM on 2 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This: I don't understand how you could have trouble finding courses. David Archer at U. of Chicago has an online course that starts today. It was the fourth result from my Duck Duck Go search for climate modeling course class online.
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Deplore_This at 05:57 AM on 2 July 2020Models are unreliable
I am an anthropogenic climate change skeptic because I’ve read criticism of the validity of the climate temperature models referenced by the IPCC. I am not a climate researcher by training or profession and to satisfy my scientific curiosity I’ve been trying to find a university course in climate temperature modeling including CO2 sensitivity analysis. From my undergraduate degree I have an extensive background in operations research, mathematics, computer science and basic physics and chemistry courses for Engineers. So I can’t imagine there is any computer modelling that will be beyond my ability.
I’ve looked at the undergraduate and graduate curriculum for the top US environmental science universities and have found only one course on climate modeling. Penn State offered METEO 523 in Spring 2020 and only 6 of 30 seats were filled and the course has been since dropped.
Can anyone suggest a climate modeling course I can pursue? Sorry to ask here but I’ve spent a lot of time searching and have come up short.
Thank you.
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Eclectic at 20:20 PM on 1 July 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Michael @156 ,
I haven't seen Shellenberger's presentations favoring extensive usage of "nuclear" (and as you do, I strongly suspect it cannot be achieved in a timely & economic manner . . . and it would be a harmful diversion of resources that would much better be spent on "renewables").
However, readers may have noted an article by Shellenberger titled: "On behalf of environmentalists, I apologize for the climate scare".
But I am not in any way recommending his article. Shellenberger's article is quite appalling in quality ~ it resembles the "holiest" of Swiss cheeses, in that it is burdened with a vast number of logical errors & misleading informations. In short, a propaganda piece. Although he appears to make an acknowledgement of AGW as a problem, he slants his message to the position that tackling AGW is non-urgent & can reasonably be postponed for decades (while other world problems get precedence). Altogether, his article fits in well with the run-of-the-mill Denialist nonsense. The same flavor, almost entirely !
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michael sweet at 12:29 PM on 1 July 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
At post 90 in this thread I commented on a Shellenberger video. Shellenberger is a paid shill for the nuclear industry. His presentations are filled with falsehoods and misinformation.
I recommend you read Abbott 2012, linked in the OP. Abbott is a peer reviewed critique of nuclear power. Abbott shows that there is no hope of a significant (more than 5% of all power) amount of nuclear power in the future. Shellenberger has not attempted to answer the issues raised by Abbott. Who do you believe, a peer reviewed paper or an unreviewed paid shill?
I note that even Shellenberger only claims that 50% of current electricity (about 10% of all power) can be generated using nuclear power. The remainder would have to be generated by renewables.
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Doug Bostrom at 06:26 AM on 1 July 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25, 2020
That's a remarkable story, David Hawk, depressing and yet hopeful.
Thank you for sharing it.
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Doug Bostrom at 02:55 AM on 1 July 2020CSLDF: Why We’re Concerned About Scientific Integrity Policies
Thank you, BF— we'll sort it out.
[Fixed. The original report may also be found here: https://www.epa.gov/office-inspector-general/report-further-efforts-needed-uphold-scientific-integrity-policy-epa ]
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jhnwlk at 02:53 AM on 1 July 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Sorry for the misspelling...that would be Shellenberger
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jhnwlk at 02:47 AM on 1 July 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
I'm looking for a critique of the case Michael Schellenberger makes for nuclear energy. Would there be one in comments in this thread or anywhere else on the website?
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djinghis at 21:35 PM on 30 June 2020CSLDF: Why We’re Concerned About Scientific Integrity Policies
@JWRebel The CDC
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MA Rodger at 21:00 PM on 30 June 2020It's only a few degrees
Jasper @3, Yet another take.
You write "I get that a few degrees make a huge difference. I don't fully understand why a few degrees matter so much." Although a huge difference is suggestive that it does matter, I read your meaning that you are after an authoritiative take on the effects of "a few degrees" and something with a bit of meat on it.
Warming the globe by "a few degrees" will make a big difference to the climate system which has been previously reasonably fixed for millenia and so will bring unprecedented change for human civilisation. But providing an authoritative account of what that change will amount to isn't so easy.
Will those "few degrees" be enough to stop the AMOC and plunge Europe into a mini-ice age, enough to broaden the Hadley Cells and turn the central US lands and the Mediterranean lands into deserts, to green the Sahara and turn the Amazon into a treeless savannah? The answers are not straightforward. There is no long list if definitive outcomes set out in the headlines of the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report. The word "risk" features too often when IPCC describes such outcomes.
But there are a couple of definitive temperature-related outcomes from AGW.
One is that Greenland will melt out somewhere between +1ºC and +2ºC threatening serious sea level rise. (The IPCC AR5 puts the upper bound at +4°C which is rather a fudge. Antarctica's ice caps are similarly a threat but how quickly they will react to global temperature rise is not well enough understood to be so predictable.) Another is the habitability of the tropics for humanity and perhaps a third is ocean acidification which would be unprecedented in tens of million of years.
If Greenland were to melt down (a process that once started will not stop as the top of the Greenland ice sheet today sits happily frozen high up in the cold upper atmosphere), the oceans would rise by over seven metres. This compares with the last six thousand years (which spans the period of human civilisation) when changes in sea level could be measures in centimetres. A seven metre rise would be a big problem as so much of our populations today live close to sea coasts. (About a third of humanity inhabit land less than 100 metres above sea level while the loss of both Greenland and Antarctica would raise sea levens 75 metres.) The melt-down of Greenland would take a few centuries to make its mark but the process certainly becomes unstoppable if global warming remains two degrees centigrade above pre-industrial.
The "few degrees" global temperature rise that accompanied the warming from the last glacial maximum 20,000 years ago and the dramatic impact on climate has been mentioned up-thread. The change in climate resulting from another similar-sized rise in global temperature would be just as dramatic for humanity. If global temperatures rose by six degrees celsius above pre-industrial, it could perhaps be described as a "Steam Age" as the increase in wet bulb temperatures would make the tropics a death trap for humans outside air conditioning. And such a six-degree temperature increase by 2100 is within the projection of the Business-As-Usual scenario of the IPCC.
The ocean acidification would rival that of the PETM 55 million years ago but would happen in decades rather than tens-of-millenia.
There is a big pile of reason not to let AGW run beyond +1.5°C. The implications for humanity and for much of the biosphere will be catastrophic if we let AGW run. It's a bit like jumping off a cliff. Predicting the height it would require for the fall to split your skull open is not straightforward but that is no reason to consider jumping. Besides, when you fall it's the intracranial hypertension that usually kills.
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MA Rodger at 19:56 PM on 30 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Given I have criticised Slarty Bartfast for the egregious level of error he achieves, I really should correct an error of my own up-thread.
Due to a spreadsheet error, the table of decadal averages within my comment @29 is entirely wrong, along with the associated result SD=0.14°C. The spreadsheet calculation corrected, I can now concur with Slarty Bartfast on his calculated decadal SD=0.28°C. (I calculate SD=0.287°C.)
The same does not go for other of his calculated SD for the Christchurch NZ monthly raw temperature data, these scaled from the graphic @21 above. (And of course, this data shouldn't be used for any reason in their raw state and and the SD shouldn't be calculated without consideration of the trend.) The comparison runs as follows:-
Av'ged period (months) .. .. My SDs ..... .. His SDs
1 .. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.58°C ..... ..... 1.06°C
3 .. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.30°C ..... ..... 0.76°C
6 .. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.60°C ..... ..... 0.62°C
12 . ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.49°C ..... ..... 0.51°C
24 ' .... ..... ...... ..... ..... ..... 0.44°C ..... ..... 0.43°C
60 . ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.34°C ..... ..... 0.34°C
120 ...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.29°C ..... ..... 0.28°C
It is evident that the SD calculation does not yield the straight line that Slarty Bartfast insists they do. And there is a pile of other methodological reasons for not attempting to extrapolate the data to provide an SD for an averaged century-long 1200 month period.
But as Slarty Bartfast does, let us not ignore all those problems.Instead consider the situation if, as Slarty Bartfast insists is the case, for 1200 month period there were actually SD=0.18°C. What is then easy to demonstrate are the errors in his argument that a +1.0°C increase in global average temperature between two consecutive centuries is "entirely possible" indeed "probable," this "due to natural variations resulting from chaotic behaviour within the climate system," or "mostly" so.
Slarty Bartfast @30 asserts that this SD=0.18°C would have a 95% probability of a 4-sigma fluctuation or "0.7 °C minimum". There are however a couple of fundamental errors in this bold assertion.
Firstly, a 20:1 chance is not what anybody would describe as "probable." Such odds are usually seen as being "improbable."
Secondly, for a normal distribution, the odds of seeing an increase of +0.7°C, or a positive increase equal in size to 4xSD, is not 20:1 but roughly 800:1. It is actually highly improbably. And we have the data to demonstrate this point.
The raw monthly data used by Slarty Bartfast can be averaged over those different periods and so the number of actual occurances of a +4xSD fluctuation can be totted-up. So, how many times do we find the increase between two data points is greater than 4x the calculated SD? Despite over 3,000 attempts, we don't find even one. The best we can do is 3.4xSD (which for a normal distribution is about 10x more likely than 4xSD).Av'ged period (months) .. .. 4 x SDs ..... .. Dev (& xSD) achieved
1 .. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .. +6.33°C ..... ..... +5.16°C (3.26)
3 .. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .. +5.20°C ..... ..... +4.44°C (3.42)
6 .. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .. +2.40°C ..... ..... +2.06°C (3.44)
12 . ..... .... ..... ...... ..... ..... .. +1.96°C ..... ..... +1.30°C (2.65)
24 . ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .. +1.74°C ..... ..... +1.18°C (2.70)
60 . ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .. +1.36°C ..... ..... +0.87°C (2.55)
120 ...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .. +1.15°C ..... ..... +0.43°C (1.51)As would be expected, the longer the averaged period, the fewer the data points, the smaller the probability of consecutive 4xSD fluctuations between consecutive data points.
So, even if it were correct to use raw data, even if the presence of trends were ignorable, even if the SD for century-long smoothing could be obtained; even if all this were so, we find Slarty Bartfast's chosen data does not show what Slarty Bartfast says.
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Eclectic at 17:22 PM on 30 June 2020CSLDF: Why We’re Concerned About Scientific Integrity Policies
JWRebel @3 ,
please be more clear about the thrust of your question. Unless you have been oblivious the many reports, since middle of last century, of compromised scientific integrity and/or corruption - most typically in the medical/biological field - then your question seems to be discursively open-ended. (Not much fudging takes place in the hard sciences ~ mainly just poor analysis/interpretation.)
IMO the outstanding point of the article is to emphasize the recent big surge in "top down" interference in scientific integrity. A huge surge ~ almost comparable with the ancient Lysenko scandal of Stalinist fame/infamy. COVID-19 , climate , weather reporting . . . take your pick.
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bf at 13:38 PM on 30 June 2020CSLDF: Why We’re Concerned About Scientific Integrity Policies
Broken link (URL appears twice) at: "A May 2020 report published by the EPA’s Office of Inspector General"
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JWRebel at 12:53 PM on 30 June 2020CSLDF: Why We’re Concerned About Scientific Integrity Policies
@ doug_bostrom
Those are all about climate change, not the COVID-19 epidemic which has seen the Lancet and Journal of New England Medicine scramble to retract peer-reviewed articles based on fraudulent data. That's why I'd like to know what exactly the author has in mind as clear examples of compromised scientific integrity and/or corruption.
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Doug Bostrom at 05:59 AM on 30 June 2020CSLDF: Why We’re Concerned About Scientific Integrity Policies
JW, the answer to your question is in plain sight in the article, in numerous places:
"A June 15 article in The New York Times..."
"A May 2020 report published by the EPA’s Office of Inspector General..."
"Under significant pressure from the White House, the acting head of NOAA, Neil Jacobs, subsequently issued an unsigned statement chastising the Alabama NWS scientists and backing Trump’s false claim. This behavior by the agency leadership violated principles in NOAA’s scientific integrity policy."
Et al. I won't reproduce the entire article above down here in comments— it makes a little more sense for you to read it.
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JWRebel at 23:12 PM on 29 June 2020CSLDF: Why We’re Concerned About Scientific Integrity Policies
The COVID-19 pandemic tragically highlights the dire and immediate threats to public health that can result when the culture of scientific integrity at research institutions is ignored or fails.
An example of compromised institutions would be in order. I don't regard this as trivially obvious.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:51 AM on 29 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
The problem is not Facebook. The problem is competition for popularity and profit.
The pursuit of popularity and profit drives the development of many understandably harmfully incorrect things, and it drives the resistance to correction of those incorrect things.
Responsible Governing is the solution, but keeping popularity and profit from influencing Governing is very challenging.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:38 AM on 29 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
People who want to be helpful should keep the Big Picture in mind.
The Big Picture is the need for Humanity to have a lasting and improving future. And that requires maintaining the system that humans developed within - the environment and the robust diversity of life constrained by the sustainability of the limits of this amazing planet (or any locations humanity spreads to). That will require expanding awareness and improving understanding to help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, all of them. And that will require significant corrections of many things that modern-day humans have developed a liking for benefiting from, especially correcting the socioeconomic-political systems that have developed.
Achieving many of the SDGs is made harder by rapid human caused climate change. So limiting the total human caused climate change is one of the most important things for humanity to work on. That leads to the understanding that the lack of responsible correction by the highest consuming and impacting portion of the global population, particularly through the past 30 years, has created the daunting current day challenge of limiting the total climate change impact to less a maximum of 2.0 C (an understandably harmful level of impact) with a need to try to limit it to 1.5 C (also a harmful, but far less harmful, level of impact).
I would add that after succeeding in achieving the upper limit of climate change impact (hopefully closer to 1.5 C), humanity needs to rapidly reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 350 ppm.
It is possible, even highly likely, that many wealthy powerful people who have been resisting the required corrections understand that making the problem worse, delaying the corrections, would increase popular support for resistance to the increasingly harsher required corrections. The lack of significant penalties for people like that, a lack of responsible Governing of those who will not responsibly Self-Govern, is a developed systemic problem that needs to be corrected. The undeserving among the Perceived Superiors must be identified and corrected. That will require Peers to correct their harmfully incorrect Peers. An alternative is a Rebellion by the lower status, and that is not something to look forward to.
Limiting the consumption and impacts of the most consuming and highest negative-impacting portion of the population, and getting every member of the most fortunate portion of the population to lead the development of truly sustainable ways to live well, is a very effective path to a lasting improving future for humanity. It is potentially the most effective way and may be the only path to a better future for humanity.
The sum of the impacts of each individual is the math that needs to be done.
Studies in ethical philosophy such as Utilitarianism identify the problem of a single very high consuming and impacting person ruining things for everyone else while the overall impression of the total, excluding any consideration of inequity and injustice, looks good. One bad apple can tempt others to join them in personally benefiting in unsustainable and harmful ways.
What has developed today is: Over-population, Over-Consumption, and Harmful Unsustainable Activities that are popular and profitable. And each of those can be understood to be the result of Selfish people pursuing benefits in harmful, unjust and inequitable ways. And those unjust inequitable developments include developing the systems, including laws and their application, that produce the harmful results and resist correction.
The Systems that have developed need to be corrected to Equitably and Justifiably: Reduce the total global population, reduce the total consumption, and eliminate activity that does harm to Others (end actions that are unjust, and end systemic inequity). That will require the Einstein Quote at the end of my comment @3 and the extension of it in my comment @5.In addition to Thomas Piketty's book "Capital and Ideology" (mentioned in my comment @5), "The Age of Sustainable Development" by Jeffrey D. Sachs (the presentation of the developed understanding that is the basis for the Sustainable Development Goals) is another comprehensive presentation of the issue (population, consumption, harm done, inequity, injustice). And there are many well investigated Social Science books presenting the ways that story-telling and story-believing combine to establish Ideological explanations for the harmful inequity of the system the stories are made-up to justify.The required helpful pursuit is Developing Sustainable Improvements for Humanity through expanded awareness and improved understanding to limit harm being done. Any other activity is irrelevant, and potentially harmful.The current reality is very unsustainable. And it was harmfully over-developed in ways contrary to developed understanding of the correct direction for development. Major corrections of the developed current day reality, especially corrections of the developed systems and the stories made-up to excuse their inequity, injustices and harmfulness, will be required.And the correction of the current day reality will require many of the more fortunate people to give up many of their developed perceptions of Superior Standard of Living relative to Others. It is likely impossible to maintain the developed enjoyments of the higher consuming higher impacting portion of the current day population.I agree that there will be many who will not willingly reduce their consumption or impacts, will not wish to pursue setting the example of Sustainable Development and Sustainable Corrections. What is undeniable is that the solution will require those people who will not responsibly self-govern and self-correct to be externally governed and corrected. That is ultimately what humanity requires in order to have an Improving Lasting Future. -
nigelj at 10:28 AM on 28 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Slarty Bartfast@30
Slarty says "The only mistakes I made were these... " (he lists two mistakes and tries to make excuses for them.)
But hes made plenty of other mistakes. Here are just a couple of others:
Slarty @11, "By the way, thanks for pointing out the error in the thermal expansion coefficient. I used the wrong one by mistake"
Slarty @12 "But this doesn't change my overall point, that sea level rise is miniscule and unmeasurable" This is clearly an error, no matter what way you look at it, as pointed out several times eg me @14.
Slarty @12 "What I did say about the Arctic is that we don't know what the temperature trend is because there are no long term weather stations within 1000 km of the North Pole, and there never have been."... "You need 50 years to establish a climate trend"
I pointed out @16 we have at least 60 years of data over the open arctic. And I would add saying you need 50 years of climate data is only Slartys opinion. Every source I've read says 30 years is sufficient, for example the experts on realclimate.org.
Slartys website blog claimed that climate change is caused by waste heat and quoted New Zealand as evidence where population density and industrial output is low and our glaciers haven't shrunk very much. I pointed out research @22 showing our glaciers have shrunk a great deal at 33% since the 1970s. Anyway there will be some difference between hemispheres because the northern hemisphere is warming faster due to a preponderance of land mass.
Own you mistakes Slarty. I suspect you have a pre determined conclusion, and when you work like that you tend to twist things to suit the conclusion and mistakes multiply. Nothing personal: you are well educated and know more statistics than me, but I have a razor sharp ability to recognise nonsense in almost any field of study.
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nigelj at 07:54 AM on 28 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
walschuler @13
I used to work in building design, and I agree you can get some big energy efficiencies especially if you go full passive solar. The problem is persuading people to bear the initial capital costs when they often have other objectives. For this reason mitigating the climate problem and other environmental problems requires constantly promoting a wide range of solutions, including energy efficiency, wasting less, having fewer children etcetera. Theres no magic bullet once you face the realities of human nature.
I suspect there is little difference long term between nuclear power and renewables, in terms of clean energy and ultimate costs, but nuclear power is not politically popular and the new smaller modular reactors are very expensive, and this could take a fair while to change, so renewables are proving more popular with generating companies and the public.
Getting the size of population down is an obvious good solution, but it probably wont happen quickly because of the risk of too many older dependent people as you mentioned. But that said, its interesting that in a couple of countries in Europe where population size has fallen and there are fewer young people and a bulge of dependent elderly, governments have tried to incentivise people to have more children, but this hasn't worked! Once the culture swings towards smaller families it seems to get quite popular.
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nigelj at 07:26 AM on 28 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
It's important to cut per capita consumption, but trying to mitigate the impacts of 10 billion people even at lower levels of consumption will be a nightmare, so its equally important to cut the size of global population. Various studies suggest 2 - 5 billion is optimal. There are downsides to smaller population but not huge ones.
This has long been realised, for example in the limits to growth report published in 1972. You can use the associated world 3 interactive model as below. Just click on simulate.
insightmaker.com/insight/1954/The-World3-Model-A-Detailed-World-Forecaster
You wont get perfect sustainability because nothing lasts forever, including this solar system. You can only aim to improve sustainability and I do believe we can do a much better job than currently.
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walschuler at 06:44 AM on 28 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
Several comments. First the Kaya equation related to the carbon problem looks in form just like the famous Drake equation for the number of radio civilizations in the galaxy. Like the latter it clearly states relevant factors making it easy to see and talk about what counts.
Second, the discussion here and in many other places under values energy conservation. I spent a decade back in the 70s and 80s running an energy consulting firm that worked on both conservation and renewables for single family and multifamily dwellings, school campuses, smalland large commercial buildings and towns. In all cases conservation measures were straightforward to find and paid off quickly, often in from 1 to 5 years. In that range they had rates of return from 20% up to 100%, better than any other type of investment at comparable levels of risk. Doing them first cut the size requirements for renewables both for collection and storage to achieve a given level of load and energy share for them.
We should be converting to renewables but doing conservation ahead of or at the same time we do that.
The movie supports nuclear as a serious alternative. Though waste storage may be solvable either by burialor reprocessing, neither is settled and the problems with that plus fissionable materials diversion and weapons should rule out any continued expansion, though we might want a new safer generation of reactors to replace the old ones as they wear out. We ought to require air cooling to get their sites away from water bodies, especially near ocean coastlines.
We do need to control population and should limit ourselves to 1 child per parent, 2 per couple. The PRC tried this and found it difficult to have enough younger working people to carry the needs of the increase in numbers elderly retired people, the latter due to improvements in their health. This can be planned for, and does not have to be instituted all at once. However, we are not in possession of studies that clearly outline how to structure an economy with enough good jobs in a future with slowly declining population. As things are now, the US generally under produces jobs, especially good jobs. Mechanization and AI add further threats to jobs which need addressing.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:33 AM on 28 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
Wol @11,
The total population number is not the problem. The total impact of the population is the problem.
Review the other comments, not just mine, to understand why. Each individual's action add up to become the future. Any form of resistance to accepting that understanding is part the problem.
The unavoidable, but often attempted to be evaded, understanding is that it is harmful and unacceptable for any portion of the population to pursue personal benefits in unsustainable ways, especially if their actions are harmful to Others, and Others include all Future Generations. That leads to the clear understanding that the individuals living in ways that have higher consumption and related impacts are the portion of the population needing to correct how they live first and most significantly. It also leads to understanding that the most powerful and fortunate in the global population are required to lead the corrections, including helping the least fortunate who are the only portion of the population who can be excused for improving their ways of living with unsustainable harmful actions.
The most fortunate need to set the example of how to live Sustainably and help the less fortunate live better with the least amount of unsustainable harmful activity as possible as they develop to live like the more fortunate. That understanding is the basis for the Kyoto Protocol. So it is not a New Idea. And the fact that it is so obvious and has been so for decades means that there are many people today in the more fortunate portion of the population who are very undeserving of their Perceptions of Superiority relative to Others (exactly the point that Black Lives Matter promoters have been exposing for decades ... about a similarly harmfully undeserving portion of the population (benefiting from harmful systemic developments, and resisting the corrections that would reduce their personal perception of Superiority relative to Others.
What is tragic is the way that Planet of the Humans has pitted people who have a common desire to help develop sustainable improvements for Humanity against each Other, with each side in some ways defending and excusing the harmfully unacceptable developed ways of living of the more fortunate portion of the Global Population. It is as harmful and incorrect to claim that 'Renewable energy can be developed in ways that do not require any reduction of Standards of Living for the most fortunate' as it is to claim that 'Population reduction and reduced energy use will allow fossil fuel use to be sustainable'.
The pursuit of expanded awareness and improved understanding to help achieve and improve on things like the Sustainable Development Goals is the only path to a better future for humanity. Reviewing the SDGs can show how they already include Good Guidance regarding major actions like COVID-19 response, Climate Impact response, and Social Injustice and Inequity response.
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Bob Loblaw at 03:34 AM on 28 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
No, Slarty, you've made lots of errors. You just don't seem to be willing or able to face them.
I"ll just point out one more, in comment 30. You say:
That does not change with the length of the series.
Focus on your own words: "the series". One hundred years of temperature data (local, global, whatever) is not, I repeat not, a random sample of temperatures from a constant distribution. It is a time series.
The statistics of a climate temperature time series are not constant over the period of the series. There is a daily cycle. There is an annual cycle. There are systematic variations due to factors such as El Nino, solar output (11 and 22-year cycles, and perhaps some longer), atmospheric aerosols, and other physical factors (CO2 amongst them) that cause variations in temperature.
Those variations can cause changes in the mean. Those variations can cause changes in the spread (SD or other measures).
Any collection of temperatures values that form a continuous subset of the complete record (a month, a year, a decade) represents a time series that can - no, will - have a different mean and (possibly) SD from the complete series. This is not because of random sampling difference - this is because of physics.
Within that shorter period, adjacent measurements (two months in a row, two years in a row, etc.) will exhibit autocorrelation. They are not independent. They are not random samples.
Everything you are doing seems to be in complete ignorance of the fact that elementary statistics of random sampling is not enough for examining time series. You can end that ignorance through learning. But first you have to accept that you still have a lot to learn.
Here is a hint: any statistical test that you do, that will return exactly the same result if you randomly re-ordered the data (i.e. you arrange them in some order that ignores the time variable), is ignoring the time-series aspect of the data.
You have it fixed in your mind that there is no change in the time series. That is implicit in the analysis that you do, even if you do not realize it. Concluding, on the basis of your analysis, that temperature is not changing, is not a "conclusion", it is an assumption you started with.
You've assumed your conclusion.
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CD at 22:21 PM on 27 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
The only mistakes I made were these:
@27 "You only reduce the SD by repeating the same measurement and averaging them, not by increasing the number of data points."
Even that is not true. What I meant was, multiple measurements result in a regression to the mean. The SD will be the same for sufficiently large N irrespective of its value. For a temperature series the SD is a measure of the spread of the data about the mean. That does not change with the length of the series.
@26 : Yes the 95% is 4-sigma not 6-sigma. Thank you all for spotting it. But that still results in fluctuations of up to 0.7 °C minimum. These are still comparable to what is being claimed by climate scientists. It is not trivial. That is the point.
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SirCharles at 21:37 PM on 27 June 2020A grand solar minimum could trigger another ice age
Peter Hadfield AKA potholer54 is at it again:
Are we headed for a Grand Solar Minimum?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjgCaF9BGUo -
Eclectic at 11:09 AM on 27 June 2020It's only a few degrees
Jasper @3 , another take :-
In a heavily populated world, the food supply is vulnerable. The staple food crops are rice, wheat, maize. Plant breeding and GMO can produce some benefit in "toughening" these species against higher temperatures ~ but it is uncertain how far this can be improved [maize yield is especially damaged by prolonged hot spells].
Even a small rise in average temperature produces a disproportionate increase in hot spells (frequency, peak, and duration). Add to that, the increased regional occurrence of droughts and/or floods affecting crops.
And infrastructure and poor quality soil problems will make it difficult to simply move croplands to newly-warm territory in Siberia and nothern Canada.
Seafood is also a vulnerability, from the [CO2 caused] rising acidity in oceans affecting the shells of planktonic creatures (which provide a large part of the "base of the pyramid" supporting our fish stocks).
Then there is the political problem of "climate refugees". Already we have pre-existing tensions / resentments / disruptions just from the 26 million international political/economic refugees (and also from the much larger number of "internally-displaced" refugees.)
The most recent and accurate satellite estimate of coastal elevations does indicate that a 1 meter average rise in seal level would displace approx 200 million people. With the storm surges and salination of low-lying farmlands, the result is that many of those people will become "climate refugees" well before the average rise of 1 meter is attained. (That may be 100 - 150 years away ~ or perhaps distinctly earlier.)
The other big increase in climate refugees would come from the near-equatorial regions of the world, as higher/longer hot spells make "outdoor work" more difficult for part of the year. (Would you call them climate refugees or economic refugees?)
Many nations already have more than enough internal social problems arising from us/them types of racial or religious or cultural differences. The addition of large numbers of "foreign" climate refugees would multiply that social disruption !
Add to all this, some further uncertainties about climate effects on "non-staple" foodcrops & insect predation . . . and in total we have a great deal of danger facing us from even 1 more degree of warming. (And the global warming already occurred has locked-in more sea evel rise even if temperature rise halts immediately.)
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Wol at 10:54 AM on 27 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
>>But the Kaya Identity illustrates why halting or even reversing that growth cannot be the answer to achieving zero emissions.<<
Of course, put like that, it is correct.
But total population numbers are the problem however one tries to argue otherwise. Being simplistic, zero human population = natural carbon cycle: 100Bn population = calamity even with zero carbon emissions, due to waste, environmental degradation, "rats in a cage" effect and so on. Somewhere in between is a sweet spot where, with net zero emissions, life is tolerable.
My opinion is that population is even now well past a sustainable level for many reasons: CO2 is but one of the factors.
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David Kirtley at 07:08 AM on 27 June 2020It's only a few degrees
Jasper @3, I always like to point out the difference between our climate today and the climate during the height of glacial periods in past "ice ages"...that difference is only 4-5°C. The cartoonist XKCD calls this 1 "Ice Age Unit". He has another cartoon showing Earth's history from now back to this last glacial maximum.
A few degrees may not be a big deal weather-wise, but for climate it is a very big deal.
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Doug Bostrom at 06:20 AM on 27 June 2020Shining a spotlight on translations and our translator teams
Hats off to our translators!
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Daniel Bailey at 05:54 AM on 27 June 2020It's only a few degrees
Jasper, NASA took a look at that. Part of what they found is that the crops we grow to support our civilization are evolved for a narrow range of temperatures and are currently near their thermal limit.
NASA also more recently took a deeper-dive into that subject, with the interactive results present in 2 parts:
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Jasper at 03:57 AM on 27 June 2020It's only a few degrees
I am a teacher and many students of mine say that because it is a few degrees it does not matter. The change between summer and winter is much bigger.
I get that a few degrees make a huge difference. I don't fully understand why a few degrees matter so much. Could somebody help me with this, so I can better explain it to my students?
Thanks a lot.
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michael sweet at 22:46 PM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
CBDunkerson,
You appear to be saying that technologies must be in place before we can start to implement them.
You listed what you apparently thought were the hardest problems to solve. I provided solutions to them using existing technology. Yes, if you do not count the climate, pollution and health costs than fossil fuels are cheaper than electrofuels. So what?
Many fossil fuels remain in place because they get so many government subsidies. In the USA several nuclear plants have been given hundreds of millions of dollars just to stay open. Fossil companies receive hundreds of billions of subsidies per year. Laws to require more efficient buildings, which save consumers money, are blocked. In Florida, where I live, it is difficult to install solar power on my roof because utilities oppose it.
As you point out, renewable energy is the cheapest energy. That is resulting in more renewable energy being built. If nations support renewable energy strongly not only they start to address the climate crisis but they will save money. Nations like Germany helped advance renewable energy when it was more expensive and showed the way.
Laws requiring more renewable energy will mean cheaper renewable energy will be installed faster. Current policy in Washington to remove environmental protections and allow more wasteful fossil fuels do not help. Currently wind and solar installations in the USA are forced to install uneconomic storage which slows implementation but makes fossil fuels more competitive. If laws are changed to make fossil fuels pay for the damage they do than renewable energy will be installed much faster.
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Ben Rose at 22:43 PM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
I think your analysis is somewhat simplistic. Net zero emissions means carbon emissions not above that which is being taken up by Earth's ecosystems I.e. it is about 1.5 tCO2e per per person on the planet, or about what some African nations where people don't have cars emit. In the the US and Australia, personal carbon emissions average about 11-12 t per head and total emissions 15-20 t per head, so we've a long way to go. 100% renewable electricity is a necessary start but there are many other things to be done, including as Moore says changing and reducing our consumption habits. About half of our emissions are embodied in food, housing, cars and other goods, so in addition to consuming less and differently, all these production processes have to change. For a detailed explanation of this see my website http://cleanenergymodelling.com.au/. You can do your own carbon footprint - downloadGHG-Energy Calc -and see detailed explanation by downloading the documents on at https://cleanenergymodelling.com.au/decarbonize/ (all are 10 second downloads).
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HamzaAzam at 21:40 PM on 26 June 2020Heatwaves have happened before
> If we contine to rely heavily on fossil fuels
There is a spelling error here. Would love if it was fixed. Thank you.
Moderator Response:[DB] Typo's fixed. Thank you for bringing this to our attention!
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CBDunkerson at 21:07 PM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
michael sweet, to me that just seems like another way of saying that the technologies aren't viable right now.
The growth of renewable power to replace fossil fuels has very little to do with "will" and everything to do with economics. They are succeeding because they are more cost effective.
So long as GHG emitting methods of performing some activities are cheaper than non-emitting options it is very unlikely that we will switch.
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MA Rodger at 20:23 PM on 26 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Slarty Bartfast @26,
You are a glutton for making yoursef look foolish.The BEST graphic does say the red trace is the 5-year rolling average. There is no reason to repeat that message. Now had you read my comment @21 properly, you would note that your methods are not properly explained for me. That deficiency would be something you could have put right rather than your misplaced lecturing. And I hope my explanation of what I did is properly explained @21. If it is not, you should have said.
So let us use that raw BEST data (which is actually an error) but without the detrending I employed @21.
If the decadal average values are calculated, they should yield a list like this (labelled by final year):-1873 ... ... +0.0307°C
1883 ... ... -0.0919°C
1893 ... ... -0.2841°C
1903 ... ... -0.3403°C
1913 ... ... -0.2466°C
1923 ... ... -0.0231°C
1933 ... ... -0.2009°C
1943 ... ... -0.1486°C
1953 ... ... -0.0967°C
1963 ... ... +0.1220°C
1973 ... ... +0.1539°C
1983 ... ... -0.0482°C
1993 ... ... +0.0990°C
2003 ... ... +0.0077°C
2013 ... ... +0.0130°CThe final decade is a few months short. Including it the SD=0.145°C.
I have no idea how you manage to obtain the SD values you quote. I am using the raw data from BEST's station 157045. If this is not what you are using to obtain your decadal SD=0.28°C, perhaps you could provide a link to the data.Your second lesson on how to read an annotated graph are a bit wasted. Why would the Green line be anything other than what the graphic says it is? (And it is of course the data that determines flatness, not some green horizontal line!!!)
Ditto your lessons on how not to calculate seasonal, annual, decadal etc SDs from monthly data. Mind, the results I obtained with the detrending described @21 do show SD reducing by 1/N (with the exception of the one I happened to check and that did happen to conform to 1/√N).And concerning another of your blunderful statements @26.
Maybe where you come from it's different but where I come from the values of a normal distribition looks like this:-
The table shows that the SD that includes 95% (so 2 x 0.4975) is SD=+/-2.81. At SD=/-3.0, the percentage is 99.73% (so 2 x 0.4987).
And while you are correct to say that (in analogy) if you play the lottery long enough, you ticket will eventually win the lottery (although over timespans of millions of years for standard weekly lotteries, not a single millenium for a centenial lottery). Yet this is not what you propose. You suggest it is "probable" when, if you buy a raffle ticket one week (one of 769 sold) and then again the next week, that you will win both times. That 'probability' is actually one chance in 769 x 769 = 1:591,361. (So not quite what I said @21 where, in my haste, I pulled the punch with a little arithmetical error of my own.)Finally Slarty Bartfast, Bob Loblaw @28 is correct. The nature of your mistakes and errors are "intriguing".
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JWRebel at 13:31 PM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
If we were to reformulate the Kaya identity in terms of resistance to decrease instead of absolute carbon emissions, multiplying each term by some variable R for resistance (technical + political possibility + costs), I think we could quite easily prove that any change to F in the rightmost terms will be far greater than moving to the term at the left. Instead of expressing the possibility/impossibilty of reach zero, we could express it in terms of the likelihood/costs of change to the system. Obviously P is hardest to change, G/P would also be very difficult. E/G could make substantial contributions, but F/E is by far the highest return on effort/expense.
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nigelj at 08:43 AM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
Despite the flaws in the movie theres an obvious case to combine renewable energy with getting population growth down and reducing per capita use of energy, by frugality and better efficiency. But in democracies its unlikely the public would vote for governments telling them how many children they can have, and how much they are allowed to consume, so you are reliant on rational persuasion, and its difficult to persuade people to reduce consumption and it takes time for energy efficient products to permeate through the market and to get population growth to slow. The net result is we will obviously need a great deal of renewable energy as a matter of urgency.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:04 AM on 26 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25, 2020
David Hawk @3
Hmm. Interesting story. I had never heard of the Wharton School of Business until someone who starred on a reality TV series talked about going there, sending at least one of his kids there, and what a great school it was. (He's currently the lead character in an ongoing 4-year series on politics in the U.S.)
Now I know a little more about the School, and it explains something to me.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:57 AM on 26 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
MA Rodger @25
When I said "intriguing", I did not mean to imply that Slarty's work was scientifically intriguing - rather that is was psychologically intriguing that he could come up with such bizarre results.
Slarty @ 26:
So much wrong in such a short space.
First, standard deviation is a calculation that is applied to a collection of independent values. Although you can do the math on any collection of values, SD is not a good measure of spread if the values are not independent.
Moving averages are clearly not independent. If you have 20 years of monthly data, you have
- 240 monthly values
- 80 3-month values
- 40 6-month values
- 20 annual values
- 2 decadal (10-yr) values.
If you think that you have more than 2 independent 10-yr averages (e.g., from a moving average), you are wrong.
Even in the numbers I list above, you need to account for autocorelation to get the proper significance tests working. Warm months and warm years (or cool months and cool years) tend to clump together. If you have a warm year, there is a good chance the following year will also be warm. Why? Physics. The earth doesn't randomly jump temperatures - it takes time to warm up or cool down, becuase you have to add or remove a lot of energy.
And if you are taking overlapping moving averages, there is seriously bad autocorrelation. For a 10-year moving average (120 monthly values), moving one month along the time line drops one value and adds one - 119 of the values used in the next moving average are exactly the same. You don't seriously think that this is an "independent" result, do you? You do know about the assumption of "independent values" in statistics. don't you? You do know what happens if you violate that assumption, don't you?
And +/-3 SD is 99% range, not 95%.
And since a normal distribution is unbounded, if global temperature were truely a random variable then it is still possible to get +6 SD or -8 SD in any 100-year or 1000-year period. It doesn't happen, because Physics.
Slarty @27
The "Standard deviation" of means of sample size N is propoerly referred to as the standard error of the estimate of the mean (SE). Yes, the SD for a population is constant (as long as the distribution is not changing). The SE decreases by 1/sqrt(N), for random data, exacly as I have said. Larger sample = mean probably closer to correct value = smaller standard error.
You are the one that created a graph showing SD changing. Now you are sayong both that is is a constant, and that is can also be decreased. You need to seriously read a good statistics book and get your terminology correct.
No, "repeating the same measurement and averaging them" does not reduce the SD - it provides a more reliable estimate of the average (mean) according to the SE.
Fitted curves (1-month average, 60-month average) don't have Standard Deviations. When you calculate the "standard deviation" (the formula looks the same) of the residuals (I am guessing this is what you are talking about - but that nomenclature problem again), then again you are talking about standard errors.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:31 AM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
An extension of the Einstein quote at the end of my comment @3 that applies to many issues, not just Climate Change or COVID-19, would be that reducing harm and developing sustainable improvements for humanity requires the unconditional surrender by every person, in a certain measure, of their liberty of action, their sovereignty that is to say, and it is clear beyond all doubt that no other road can lead to sustainable improvement of humanity's condition on this planet.
It is important to expand the understanding to be clear that the objective of human activity needs to be developing sustainable activities that all humans can aspire to develop to enjoy if they choose to and that future generations can continue to do if they wish.
That expanded understanding has two parts:
- The need for the developed activities to be almost infinitely sustainable given the physical resources on this One, and potentially only, amazing planet that humans can be certain of being able to live on into the distant future.
- The need for the developed activities to not produce accumulating harm or changes of the nature of the planet in ways that diminish the robust diversity of life that humans evolved as a part of (and may be incapable of surviving without).
Every person's actions add up to be the future. So the better presentation would be:
The Sum Total of impacts of all Human actions must be aspired to meet the Do No Harm - Develop Sustainable Improvements Criteria. That identifies that everyone should be expanding their awareness and improving their understanding to help achieve and improve on important understanding like the Sustainable Development Goals. Only the less fortunate should be excused for behaving in harmful unsustainable ways. And every more fortunate person needs to be expected to strive to live better, more sustainably less harmfully, and help Others learn to be Better.
The problem with the current developed systems is rather thoroughly investigated by Thomas Piketty in his most recent book "Capital and Ideology". There is evidence of a history of constant effort to reduce unjust inequality in socioeconomic systems, actions that developed understandings like the Sustainable Development Goals. However, the reality is that history is full of examples of the ability of people who get away with becoming more fortunate and are not interested in that type of development to be able to win temporary regional power to resist the corrections of developed systems that they benefit from.
Developing sustainable improvements for Humanity, like the Sustainable Development Goals, requires everyone to be governed by the pursuit of correction of harmful developed injustice and inequality (regionally, nationally, between nations, and between current and future generations). Those who will not Self-Govern responsibly need to be Governed by Others who will help them become better people and limit the harm they do as they learn to be better people. Any other path will not be Sustainable, and likely be very harmful until its leadership direction of development is corrected.
Ensuring that expanded awareness and improved understanding is the basis for all Leadership actions is essential to the future of Humanity. And that expanded awareness and understanding includes consideration of matters that cannot be quantified in detail or be replicated by experiments. Piketty's book makes it clear that there is a lack of information regarding the issues he is presenting, but that lack of data does not mean that proper improvements of understanding cannot be developed.
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CD at 05:23 AM on 26 June 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
@23 Bob Loblaw
It appears you don't understand standard deviations (SD) or scaling behaviour, based on what you have written.
i) The N is not the number of data points in the SD, it is the number in the moving average. Each moving average has its own SD as shown in the Christchurch data posted by MA Rodger. The SD of the blue curve (1 month average) is clearly much bigger than the SD of the red curve (5yr = 60 month average).
ii) You said: "but of course, for random data, the longer the averaging period, the smaller the standard deviation, according to 1/sqrt(N)."
NO !!!!!
The SD stays the same irrespective of the length of your time series. Doubling the averaging period doubles the total value of the terms being summed. Dividing by 2N just gives the same result. You only reduce the SD by repeating the same measurement and averaging them, not by increasing the number of data points. So averaging multiple station records in a regional trend will reduce the SD, doubling the length of single record will not.
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Doug Bostrom at 05:12 AM on 26 June 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25, 2020
Joel, thank you. But I should point out that it was Ari Jokimäki who started this resource. After many years (and countless articles) he handed over the helm to me.
Ari's RSS feed arrangement made it possible to hit the ground at a stumble as opposed to collapse. :-)
Dawei, I'm pondering on how that might be possible without causing a ripple effect in site code development (we're already highly tasked in that department).
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michael sweet at 04:27 AM on 26 June 2020What 'Planet of the Humans' gets wrong about renewable energy
CBDunkerson,
It is possible to make steel using electricity or hydrogen to reduce the iron oxide. Likiewise both commercial and military planes can use electrofuels. The only not to convert these sources of pollution to renewable energy is lack of will.
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