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Comments 70501 to 70550:

  1. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 1
    43 cjshaker: "He has 86 of them" Papers about 'rock glaciers' and terminal moraines have nothing to do with climate change, let alone CO2. Perhaps you can translate "Klima og CO2 - Uenighedens kerne"? His website isn't peer-reviewed and he's been debunked elsewhere. Use Search to find the correct thread.
  2. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 1
    cjshaker, No one is questioning what he thinks. The question is "has he published any peer-reviewed papers on the topic?"
    Response:

    [DB] This is a good time for Chris to demonstrate that he can uphold his end of a discussion rather than his wont of posting drive-by comments.

  3. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 1
    43, cjshaker, But not in any of the peer-reviewed papers. On the link you provided CO2 appears only in the section "Popular Papers" (whatever that means), "Interviews on TV and Radio" and "Lectures." Do you have some specific peer-reviewed papers that you feel should be looked at more closely?
  4. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 1
    How sure are you that this list is accurate? Just looking at Dr. Ole Humlum. He is listed as having 0 peer reviewed papers which cast doubt on the AGW hypothesis. Found a list of his peer reviewed papers. He has 86 of them, according to this reference: http://www.climate4you.com/Text/BIBLIOGRAPHY%20OLE%20HUMLUM.pdf I find something that looks like 'CO2 hypothesis' in several of them. Chris Shaker
  5. CO2 Problems: Parallel concerns breed parallel denial
    @Chuckbot: Please add a source citation for each graphic in your article.
  6. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Dave123, on your #1, yes it is off topic except for how to define what models "predict". On #2, I agree with the explanation by Kevin C that the complexities of a model can be simplified to a linear function as lots of model runs are averaged. The relevant point to this thread is that models predict the climate response to natural and manmade forcings when multiple runs of the model are averaged. They don't "predict" natural variations, but can demonstrate various possible natural variations from run to run.
  7. 9 Months After McLean
    48, Fred, Go back to the G&T thread where I have replied to you, with a link to someone who has explicitly and very clearly, step by step, taken your failed model one step further, added the missing elements and corrected the misconceptions, and arrived at the correct theoretical earth mean global surface temperature -- and he explains very clearly how he does so. After you absorb that, you can then admit that you jumped the gun, that you have failed to disprove GHG theory, and that the remainder of your discussion and points therefore require more thought and consideration, and will take you in an entirely different direction than the flawed and indefensible path that you are currently following.
  8. Dikran Marsupial at 05:00 AM on 10 November 2011
    CO2 Problems: Parallel concerns breed parallel denial
    I don't think it is fair to say "And he’s doing it in the face of a clear upward trend at longer timescales!", the growth rate is so noisy that even over longer timescales the trend is not statistically significant (indeed isn't that Knorr's key finding?). However Everett's error of trying to say that a short term non-significant trend means something is far worse.
  9. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Eric: Let's look at the structure of Eschenbach's argument. It has the following form:
    Premise 1: The ensemble average response of climate models to forcings is linear. (Evidence: multiple pages of blog postings, graphs, and excel spreadsheets). Premise 2: Climate is non-linear. (Evidence: "Me, I find the idea ... a risible fantasy). Conclusion: Climate models are unrealistic.
    I think Eschenbach has unintentionally committed a rhetorical sleight-of-hand, by his preoccupation with his first premise. His mistake in his second is a variant of the confusion of weather and climate. Just because the internal variations of the system are chaotic and non-linear, doesn't mean that the response of the equilibrium state to external forcing must also be so. With a little more research, he could have saved himself all of the calculation. Climate scientists have know about this for years, and have written about it extensively. See Held's Simplicity of the forced response, the IPCC TAR which used a more sophisticated version of this approach for its centennial projections, and this recent paper.
  10. 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
    CNN is posting a running commentary on the Alaskan storm. Click here.
  11. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Eric-224 1) Isn't this off-topic for this thread? 2- This is what Eschenbach says he is doing
    . In other words, we may be able to find a simple function that provides the same output as the black box.
    This isn't a model. It's mathturbation. There's no physics in it. You can't validate CO2 or anything with it. Suggests to me that you don't have a clue...precisely the naive target of a (-Snip-) such as Eschebach.
    Response:

    [DB] While I can certainly sympathize with the thought process & the emotion, please substitute euphemisms such as "fake skeptic" or dissembler for the snipped text.

    In Eric's defense, he has previously demonstrated a capacity for understanding some of the many complexities of climate science, so let us please grant him the benefit of the doubt in this instance of perhaps not having put a lot of time into reading & comprehending his linked blog post.

  12. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Eric#24: "The runs contain natural variation presumably with the same statistical properties as measured natural variation. The mean of all the runs is what I would call the prediction." Granted that each run has its natural variation, containing an element of pseudo-randomness. An ensemble of these models will average out this randomness and thus your 'prediction' - a mean - will appear simple. That's not a good way to see if models model natural variation -- by design. Tom C makes the same point. One must conclude that there is no basis in this experiment for saying that models are inaccurate predictors. By the nouveau logic we hear these days, that means they are accurate.
  13. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Your data base of peer reviewed papers appears to be highly incomplete. You show David Douglass having only one paper. When I search Web of Science for "Douglass D" only one climate paper comes up. But if I search for "Douglass DH" I get 17 climate papers. I'm not suggesting that these papers are correct. Many will recall the 2008 smackdown with Realclimate http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/10/tropical-tropopshere-iii/ Another problem: when I click on a name in your database, nothing happens.
  14. Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
    Is this a reasonable way to look at Hansen's prediction? It shows the slope at the time Hansen made the prediction against the slope from the same point till now. He was wrong about some of the numbers but his claim that the rate of warming would considerably increase certainly bore fruit.
  15. 9 Months After McLean
    I return from the G and T thread with the suggestion that the only plausible theory of AGW, the “higher is colder” theory, might be tested against the available data. “Higher is colder” is an effect high in the troposphere whereby increasing CO2 reduces outgoing emissions to space, allowing the sun to warm the system, and shift the atmospheric lapse rate to the right. The relevant data, satellite and radio-sonde temperatures, is collected far above the complications of urban development, and in the case of satellites covers the globe. The satellite data has been collected since 1979, a date when the CO2 effect, if any , should have been well established. The Mauna Low average then was 309ppm. Before that, the available data, will all its uncertainties, shows a steady rise from the little ice age, peaking in the forties, and a slow fall thereafter to 1979, the start of the satellite era. So, global temperatures than showed no significant sign of AGW, and temperatures were somewhat below the previous peak in the forties, which were well above the Little Ice Age minimum. Over the next 19 years, in the satellite era, CO2 increased steadily to 363ppm, or by 18%. What happened to the troposphere temperatures? Nothing happened to the troposphere temperatures. The average anomaly over the period was -0.12 degrees, and the averages for the first and last five years periods were -0.10 and -0.092 respectively. The least squares trend line was 0.038 degrees C per decade, and the probability of this having been registered by chance was 49%. That takes us to 1997 without observing AGW. What happened next? The famous 1998 peak increased the annual average by half a degree, to 0.43 degrees C. The fall in 1999 reversed this increase, to – 0.05 in 1999 and -0.06 in 2000. No one, so far as I know, attributes these changes to CO2, so we arrive at year 2001 without the CO2 increases in the 20th century having made any discernible difference to troposphere temperatures. CO2 at the end of the century had reached 370ppm. Then something really strange happened. The average global temperature moved up suddenly by about 0.2 degrees, which is substantial by climate science standards. Apart from the year 2008 (when it fell back to -0.04, you see why McClean had a chance) it has stayed up from 2002 to date. That step change is entirely responsible for the positive trend in the data from 1997 to date, which is 0.139 degrees per decade, and highly significant (the calculated 5% confidence limits are 0.85 to 1.92 degrees C per decade). Are the temperatures still rising? No. Although the period this century is short you can get an idea by asking how far back we must go to see a significant trend. The answer is 17 years, to 1994. The years from 2001 are nowhere near significance. So, to sum up, the UAH evidence for any global warming trend rests on the step increase from 2000 (-0.06degrees C) through 2001 (0.11 degrees C) to 2002 (0.22 degrees C). Are we really certain that that change had anything to do with rising CO2 levels? Would you like to try to persuade the Chinese to give up their industrial revolution on that evidence? Will the American shut off their air conditioning?
    Response:

    [DB] "Before that, the available data, will all its uncertainties, shows a steady rise from the little ice age, peaking in the forties, and a slow fall thereafter to 1979, the start of the satellite era."

    Incorrect.  For convenience, I have demarcated the point at which all the wheels fell off your logic-wagon by striking out the subsequent logical fallacy avalanche. 

    Please use the Search function (really, as a participant in this forum since 2010, you should have learned to use this valuable resource long ago) to find out more about the multiple errors in your statement I've quoted above, not to mention those in the fallacy cascade that follows.

  16. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    mouncounter, not contradictory since he purposely built a model with limitations that matched GISS-E; with the caveat as Tom points out that it matched the average of a large number of runs. The runs contain natural variation presumably with the same statistical properties as measured natural variation. The mean of all the runs is what I would call the prediction. Eschenbach showed that the prediction was simple. His inference that the model is therefore simplistic is disputed by Tom. Either way, an individual run is likely not a valid "prediction" of reality even with real world initial conditions (chaos gets in the way).
  17. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Eric #18: "questioned the predictive power of models using his model of the GISS-E model:" Isn't that an inherent contradiction? 'I do not believe in models so I will use a model to show that.'
  18. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Eric @21, if that is Eschenbach's concern (natural variability not predicted), then the game is given away on his method by Steve McIntyre of all people, who describes his "target" as "An ensemble of GISS Model E global temperatures is used as a target." The ensemble is of course the average (mean) of a large number of runs. Because natural climate variations, which do appear in the individual runs, do not all occur at the same time and strength, the cancel each other out in the ensemble mean. Consequently only known forcings will effect the ensemble mean, even though natural variability is modeled in any given model run.
  19. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Eschenbach's result appears to match GISS-E and also validates CO2 warming as implemented by GISS-E (using HITRAN results). What it does not do (his major complaint) is model or "predict" natural variations.
  20. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Camburn: " I will pull the quote from WG1 Section 8 concerning the predictive power of the models." I think he meant to say "I'll quote mine WG1 ..." Camburn, if you don't supply a quote in full context I think people will be disappointed in you.
  21. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Eric- From reading just that article, I wonder if Eschenbach ever built a computer simulation of anything....anything at all. I have....and if you tried to do what he did to climate models to my reactor model systems you'd get garbage out. In fact sometimes I wonder if that's what some clients of mine did, deciding that they could shortcut some work and not pay me. They blew up the plant.
  22. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Eschenbach questioned the predictive power of models using his model of the GISS-E model: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/14/life-is-like-a-black-box-of-chocolates/
  23. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    1124, Fred, If you wish, you can cheat. Visit this page and read through it, step by step. In chapter 12 he has the same problem that you do with effectively the same numbers, 302K for one layer, 334K for two. Unlike you, however, he takes the thinking further and resolves the issues by recognizing that there is more to the problem than this, rather than assuming at that point that all climate scientists and physicists have it wrong. If you read and understand it to the end, you will find that you do, in fact, get the right answers. At that point, you'll need to reevaluate your conclusion that the greenhouse effect violates the laws of physics and cannot exist. At that point I will then, again, be interesting in hearing your opinions on the subject.
  24. 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
    Unfortunately, while trying to get some first-hand accounts of the Alaskan storm, I read a comment stream at weather.com. Sigh. There are reports of pieces of my head being found as far away as the west end of Valles Marineris. Whenever I get hopeful about the possibility of people waking up, I always seem to encounter a mass of sleepwalkers. They're not even zombies. They just want to be left alone with their illusions.
    Response:

    [DB] Please check your email.

  25. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Camburn @16, I would have thought for such a strong, and surprising claim, the quote would have to be very familiar to you, and hence producible by you in just a few minutes. Afterall, it takes just a few minutes for me to quote the AR4 WG1 chapter 8 as saying:
    "There is considerable confidence that climate models provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at continental scales and above. This confidence comes from the foundation of the models in accepted physical principles and from their ability to reproduce observed features of current climate and past climate changes. Confidence in model estimates is higher for some climate variables (e.g., temperature) than for others (e.g., precipitation). Over several decades of development, models have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases."
    (FAQ 8.1, my emphasis.) And:
    "The atmosphere-ocean coupled climate system shows various modes of variability that range widely from intra-seasonal to inter-decadal time scales. Successful simulation and prediction over a wide range of these phenomena increase confidence in the AOGCMs used for climate predictions of the future."
    8.4, my emphasis.) These, along with Skywatcher's quote (@12) from 8.1.1 directly contradict your assertion. Why then the delay in correcting your blatant falsehood.
  26. 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
    And at the same time, a late season TS forms in the Atlantic. When it rains, it pours. Ocean temperatures are near 26.5°C (80°F), which is right at the boundary of being warm enough to support tropical storm formation. Water temperatures off the SE US coast are indeed a few degrees F warmer than normal this year.
  27. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Tom: I don't have time today, but within 48hrs I will pull the quote from WG1 Section 8 concerning the predictive power of the models.
    Response:

    [DB] Please do not post any other comments in that 48 hour window until you have found the actual quote you referenced.  Or concede that you simply fabricated the quote.

  28. 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
    Also worth noting is the first tropical-like cyclone in Northern Mediterranean ever.
  29. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 1
    @ adelady ... thanks for the pointer to the "Interactive History" ...
  30. Sudden_Disillusion at 18:25 PM on 9 November 2011
    Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 2
    @DB: honestly you should get a Pulitzer not for your brilliant in-your-face answers to "skeptics" but just for your patience with them. /hats off
    Response:

    [DB] Thank you for the kind words, but the brilliance is displayed daily by the regular participants here.  I try to make my small contribution in my own particular...idiom.

  31. 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
    Just a note on the current storm in the Bering Sea. Meteorologists are pointing out that the effects of the 940mb storm are much, much worse than they would have been 30 years ago because of the diminished sea ice extent. While the storm intensity itself may or may not be related to AGW, the resulting damage will certainly be directly attributable to AGW.
  32. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    jimb#14: "the impression that he accepted the assertion that climate models were leaving out a key variable." There's a fairly extensive discussion of modeling on this thread.
  33. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    #9 muoncounter-Thanks for the link to the online article, which, as you noted, does not refer to climate science- not sure why he included the quote from David Colander re clouds and climate science- in the print edition that I received today the paragraph I referred to left me with the impression that he accepted the assertion that climate models were leaving out a key variable. Maybe I just read too much, or too little, into it.
  34. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    1124, Fred,
    These results are absurd, but they are derived from the original greenhouse “explanation”.
    Yes. Which means there is something drastically wrong with your model. A skeptical person would sit back and think "okay, that can't be right. What am I doing wrong? What am I misunderstanding? Which assumptions have I made that are incorrect?" Hmmmmm. A skeptical person would do that.
  35. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Tom & Sky, Camburn has said many an outrageous thing in his time commenting here since September 2010. But he also has had time to be fully aware of the consequence for the egregious transgression he has just committed here. So let us await an answer, on the off-chance that all of us have missed something in the relevant text that Camburn can enlighten us on. But if no answer is given - or more obfuscation - then that will be sufficient for resolution to then follow.
  36. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    #10, Camburn, do you have evidence for your claim? In AR4 WG1, Section 8 is to do with the construction and evaluation of climate models, in 8.1.1: "In climate change simulations, on the other hand, models are used to make projections of possible future changes over time scales of many decades and for which there are no precise past analogues. Confidence in a model can be gained through simulations of the historical record, or of palaeoclimate, but such opportunities are much more limited than are those available through weather prediction. Without getting into the semantics of projections vs predictions, we can see that Section 8 does not support a view that "they do not have predictive ability". We then have a whole section, Section 10, on "global climate projections".
  37. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Camburn @10, I'm going to call you on that. Your claim is so contrary to the general tenor of the comments in section 8 that I cannot see how you came to that conclusion. What is more, chapter 10 repeatedly uses climate models to make projections, ie, because they are presumed to have predictive power. Therefore I must conclude that your claim is in direct contradiction of the IPCC WG 1 report. In fact, it is so far in contradiction of the report that, if you do not produce the quote where Chapter 8 of the IPCC AR4 WG 1 report says that models have no predictive power, I will have to conclude that your statement is a flat out lie.
  38. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    Build it, and they will come.
    Response:

    [DB] Flippancy is not becoming nor called for when people are trying to engage you sincerely, apiratelooksat50/Sasquatch.  FYI, sock-puppetry is "frowned upon" in this establishment.

  39. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    WG1 Section 8 is quit plain when referring to models. They do not have preditive ability.
    Response:

    [DB] "WG1 Section 8 is quit plain when referring to models.  They do not have preditive ability."

    Yes, it is plain.  And it plainly says the opposite of your assertion.  So substantiate your assertion.

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-8-1.html

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch8s8-4-11.html

  40. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    jimb#5: "David H. Freedman, makes a comment about modelling, and referring to climate science he says" Here's another take on the Freedman article: Freedman builds off a 2005 paper (pdf) by earth scientist Jonathan N. Carter et al. from a conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output; the paper's titled "Our Calibrated Model has No Predictive Value: An Example from the Petroleum Industry". The SciAm article starts with this geophysical model, draws conclusions about economic models, and mentions climate models not at all. The model in the Carter paper is a petroleum reservoir; the model has difficulty reproducing actual production results. Freedman concludes: "That financial models are plagued by calibration problems is no surprise to Wilmott--he notes that it has become routine for modelers in finance to simply keep recalibrating their models over and over again as the models continue to turn out bad predictions. ... But in finance they just keep on recalibrating and pretending that the models work." What does this have to do with climate science? Here's the big insight: No matter what the application (economics, geology/geophysics, climate modelling, etc) a simple axiom applies to computer models: garbage in, garbage out. Only one response to that is worthwhile: "Wow."
  41. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    jmorpuss - you seems to be under the misapprehension that GHGs affect radio-frequency radiation or that radiowaves affect climate. This is not supported by data.
  42. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    jimb @5, if that is what David Freedman says, he is simply wrong. Outrageously so. He may be confused by the fact that clouds are not a single variable. Rather they effect both incoming SW radiation both by reflection, scattering and absorption, and outgoing LW radiation by absorption and emission. How clouds effect these factors depend on their altitude and type. Climate models also track convection and latent heat transfer, important factors often associated with clouds. So, looking at a global circulation model it would be hard (indeed) impossible to point to a single variable and say "that is clouds", but the effect of clouds is integral to operation of the models.
  43. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    jim - this is plain flat out wrong. Where on earth do you suppose he got that idea? Some info on treatment of clouds in models can be found here.
  44. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Just got the current issue of Scientific American. In the article "A Formula for Economic Ca laity" the author, David H. Freedman, makes a comment about modelling, and referring to climate science he says" Omitting a key variable seems egregious, but scientists do it all the time....That is a problem for climate science, Colander says, where models often have no terms to account for the effects of clouds. " Clouds control 60 percent of the weather, and models usually ignore them," he notes, "When you can't model a factor that has that kind of influence on the outcome, you have to use a lot of judgment in whether to believe the results."" I am very much an amateur with respect to this, but this quote seems to throw more doubt on the models than is justified.
  45. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Fred Staples @1124, you jump too quickly from "it is not a multi-layer emissivity 1, zero convection atmosphere" (my summary) to it is "a top-of-atmosphere effect". In fact climate models (or at least Line By Line models, and Global Circulation Models) are multi-layer models. Importantly, they include terms for transmitted radiation, and energy transfer by convection and latent heat at each layer, and require energy balance at each layer. It is possible to develop an "effective altitude of radiation" plus lapse rate model of the atmosphere. It has the advantage of being very simple, and giving approximately correct results. It is, therefore, far better than the slab model you used in 1120 above, but it remains only approximately correct.
  46. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    "We have some evidence..." Fred, you might want to add to that evidence, the observations from surface, aircraft and satellites of longwave radiation being scattered at GHG-specific wavelengths (some presented in the Intermediate tab). Add to that the observations of an increase in downwelling and a decrease in outgoing LW radiation at GHG-specific wavelengths observed over the past few decades. Where does the increase in downwelling radiation from GHG-specific wavelengths go?
  47. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    Just stumbled upon this; summarizes the state of things quite well.
  48. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    Here NZ - close to 80% renewables and should cruise to target of 90% by 2020. Add hydro and geothermal into the mix. However, the answer to reducing CO2 emissions is not just renewables. They are just part of the solution. What bothers my is the logic that goes from "I cant see how to live without coal, ergo AGW is false".
  49. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    Thanks for the comment, Sphaerica, but my post was intended to be a simplified version of so much that is posted about “back-radiation” theories. (You will find a complicated version in Eli Rabetts rebuttal of the original G and T paper). As such, it is not remotely realistic. There is no reason to believe that outgoing radiation will be absorbed only once. If we add another absorbing layer, radiating W to space at a temperature of 255 degrees K, we fill find that the surface temperature must rise to radiate 3W, at a temperature ratio of the fourth root of 3, or 335K. The absorption distance in the atmosphere means that there will be many such layers, and every layer will absorb the incident energy and re-emit half downwards. Repeat the calculation and you will find: One layer – Fourth root of 2 = 1.19. Tsurf = 1.19 x 255 = 303K Two Layers - Fourth root of 3 =1.315 T surf = 1.315 x 255 = 335K Three Layers - Fourth root of 4 = 1.415 Tsurf = 1.415 x 255 = 360K Four Layers - Fourth root of 5 = 1.495 Tsurf = 1.495 x 255 = 381K and so on. These results are absurd, but they are derived from the original greenhouse “explanation”. As I and several others posted here long ago,(1000) the only plausible theory of “greenhouse” warming which supports AGW is the “higher is colder” theory. The temperature difference from the surface to the 255 K effective emission level then depends on the lapse rate, which in turn depends on gravity and specific heat; it has nothing to do with radiation. AGW is then a top-of-atmosphere effect. The argument is that adding CO2 (or any other absorbing gas) will elevate the emission level to higher, and therefore colder, temperatures, so reducing the outgoing radiation, and allowing the sun to warm the entire system. We are, in fact, conducting a global experiment to test this theory. We are on course to double the CO2 content of the atmosphere. We have some evidence, satellite and radio-sonde troposphere temperatures, which we can relate to the increasing CO2 levels. In my opinion, DB, this is what is important, not more and more expensive attempts to model the heat transfer (conduction, convection, radiation, and evaporation) from the surface through the chaotic weather systems. It might be instructive to return to the McClean thread and see what can be learned from the available data.
  50. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    The most recent justifications I've seen from Curry seem to involve the "but they did it too" defence. She has been writing things like : 'the WWF are/have/would do the same'; 'the IPCC spread disinformation...probably'; 'Mann is political'. Basically, it's : 'It's not me, or if it is (which I deny or have been misunderstood about), what about them over there...' It is so juvenile, I don't know whether to laugh or cry - probably a bit of both !

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