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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 70551 to 70600:

  1. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    Sasquatch"When the wind doesn't blow enough, or blows to hard; or the sun isn't shining - from what source are we going to draw power?" Actually the problems that renewables create are similar to the problems encountered when electricity was first developed on a grid wide scale. The issue is not individual sources of generation, the main issue is management of the whole grid system. Back then they were faced with the issue of load balancing (this is actually the ONLY issue when you take a system approach to the problem). When you generate to much or to little, or if you look at it from the load side and you find that demand is to high or to low, then you find the frequency across the grid goes up or down. The engineering solutions are to have standby generation sources that range from hydroelectric gas turbines. So to suggest that renewables cause a problem, misses the point that we have always had a problem with variability in the system! The reason we think we have some stable system is because engineers in the past have spent years developing systems to deal with variability in load, and we now take for granted. Today we are faced with new engineering problems and the difference today is that we also have science and technology that can also vary load intelligently to better match a more variable generation side.
  2. Ice age predicted in the 70s
    I still haven't found a way to list the various questions that I've touched on this site. When I refer to 'ice age' I'm talking about the ice ages that occur on the 100,000 year period, as revealed by the ice core data. Chris Shaker
    Response:

    [DB] Read this post:  Milankovitch Cycles

  3. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    If your going to use data collected from satalites and ground based units then you nead to at least understand these processes (-Snip-)
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Please do not link-dump without providing context for why you are providing the links and what the reader can be expected to take away from the reading of the links.  You provide neither in this case, so the links have been snipped.

    As an FYI, you presume that the author doesn't understand the processes behind integrating satellite and ground-based measurements.  That is a false presumption.

    Edit:  Please note that a subsequent comment of yours to this was deleted due to multiple violations of the Comments Policy.

    Please take the time to thoroughly acquaint yourself with it in order to fully comport your comments with its strictures.  Understand that, by commenting at this site, moderation is an implicit condition accepted by the person commenting when posting a comment.  Thanks in advance for your understanding and compliance.

  4. Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 2
    The fact that global warming continues despite anti-science groups trying to impose cooling trends on global temp graphs is obvious when you look at most the anti-science graphs. This was the point I was trying to get across in my previous post in part 1 of this series, though I obviously worded poorly. Of course, most anti-science types won't show the whole warming trend, just the decade they've cherry-picked for the purpose of "refuting" the majority of climate scientists. Thanks for these articles exposing the deception, dana.
  5. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    95 Sphaerica, But they are not hiding; some have gone deep underwater, where they cannot be measured. And anything that cannot be measured does not need to be hidden. It is sufficient to say that we have no evidence of their lack and hence, they must not be lacking.
    `Take some more tea,' the March Hare said to Alice, very earnestly. `I've had nothing yet,' Alice replied in an offended tone, `so I can't take more.' `You mean you can't take LESS,' said the Hatter: `it's very easy to take MORE than nothing.'

    In any case, until we have enough turtle measurement floats deployed, to say they are 'missing' would be a travesty.

  6. KeefeandAmanda at 08:37 AM on 9 November 2011
    Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Yes, as you point out, the skeptic attempts to blame the Sun are falsified. But the other main claim of the skeptics is also falsified, and this falsification does not seem to get a lot of press, and this falsification is this: The skeptics deny what mainstream peer-reviewed climate science has to say on the greenhouse gas activity of non-condensing greenhouse gases like CO2 as forcers and water in the atmosphere as an amplifier (feedback). And so those that admit that the Sun's output has not changed enough to cause all or almost all the recent warming say that essentially only less reflected light has caused all or almost all of the recent warming. (Note that the claims of Svensmark and Spencer et al. with respect to cosmic rays or oceans or clouds ultimately reduce to the claim that essentially only less reflected light has caused all or almost all of the recent warming.) There is a book that is partially available online as a Google e-book "Solar activity and earth's climate" by Rasmus E. Benestad, who obtained a Ph.D in physics from Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics at Oxford University. (He is one of the many real climate scientists who contribute at RealClimate.) Go to page 176. We read, "Any mechanism involving the albedo implies strongest response in the daytime temperature. Observations, on the other hand, suggest a reduction in the diurnal temperature range where the night-time temperature has increased more than the daytime temperature (Houghton et al., 2001). According to Svensmark's hypothesis, the warming is due to the reduction in Earth's albedo (reflected light), and therefore a long-term reduction in the low-level planetary cloud cover appears to be inconsistent with the observations." That is, what Benestad says above is simply a polite way of saying that the reduction in the global diurnal temperature range where the global night-time temperature has increased more than the global daytime temperature strongly falsifies the skeptic hypothesis that essentially only less reflected light has caused all or almost all of the recent warming. That is, if CO2+H2O greenhouse gas activity is as weak as the skeptics claim and the warming is entirely or almost entirely due to less reflected light, then there is nothing to keep enough heat from escaping out into space at night globally to avoid a global diurnal temperature range increase such that the global daytime temperature increases faster than the global nighttime temperature. But the opposite has been happening. And note that this falsification of the skeptic claim that essentially only less reflected light has caused all or almost all of the recent warming is a strong falsification. That is, even though a constant global diurnal temperature range would suffice to falsify the skeptic claim, a decreasing global diurnal temperature range strongly falsifies it. And depending on its rate of decline and on whether this rate of decline is changing and how it is changing, one could argue that this falsification is not just strong but very strong or even very, very strong. How do skeptics deal with the fact of the falsification of their denials of what mainstream peer-reviewed climate science has to say on greenhouse gas activity? They deal with it in two ways: They either ignore it or they try to use *local* phenomena to try to refute fact about *global* phenomena. That is, on the latter point, they try to use the fact that there has been an increase in the diurnal temperature range in some *local* climates to try to argue against the fact that the *global* diurnal temperature range has decreased. But since this is all about *global* climate and not about the climate of only cherry-picked parts of the planet, this attempt is just an embarrassment to those skeptics who try this. By the way, if a skeptic tries to say that increased water in the atmosphere by itself with no or almost no forcing from non-condensing greenhouse gases like CO2 will save the day for the skeptic denial of what mainstream peer-reviewed climate science says about these non-condensing greenhouse gases, then consider this: The equations in physics providing the calculations that fit reality on this one are where? Answer: Nowhere. Everyone in the skeptic community who does not try to confront this problem in some meaningful way (like Svensmark) know full well that they cannot even begin to make the numbers work to their favor on this one, and so rather than embarrass themselves trying to make the numbers work to their favor they elect to just ignore this problem when confronted with it.
  7. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    Actually, the most significant number is the missing denominator, for without it the turtle budget cannot be balanced...
  8. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    94, muoncounter, Are you admitting to having used Mike's Nature trick to hide the turtles?
  9. Eschenbach and McIntyre's BEST Shot at the Surface Temperature Record
    @citizenschallenge The conclusion in Fall et al. is that errors in the temperature record mostly cancel out in the averaging process, without significantly shoving the trend to either cooling or warming. From their paper: "The opposite‐signed differences in maximum and minimum temperature trends at poorly sited stations compared to well‐sited stations were of similar magnitude, so that average temperature trends were statistically indistinguishable across classes. For 30 year trends based on time-of‐observation corrections, differences across classes were less than 0.05°C/decade, and the difference between the trend estimated using the full network and the trend estimated using the best‐sited stations was less than 0.01°C/decade." They also found that poorly sited stations tended to have a slightly cooler trend, rather than the higher one Watts wanted to find. These findings are in agreement with the conclusion reached by Menne et al. (which preceded them). BEST likewise found that the Urban Heat Island effect didn't significantly alter trends either, another conclusion that had been previously reached in the literature. The surface temperature record is apparently pretty robust against siting influences or UHI effects according to all these studies.
  10. Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 2
    "Oceanic cycles don't create or retain heat, they simply move it around. So if these climate shifts are causing the surface air to warm, they should also be causing the oceans to cool." This claim is repeated dozens of times around the pages of SkS. It is not strictly true, however. Long term changes in oceanic flow can indeed cause the global mean temperature to warm without causing the ocean to cool. The reason being that changes in the distribution of heat can change the distribution of clouds, water vapor and ice, which can, in tern, cause a global radiative forcing. There is quite a bit of research published on this but the following paper is a good place to start: Herweijer C., R. Seager, M. Winton, A. Clement (2005) Why ocean heat transport warms the global mean climate. Tellus, 57A, 662-675 can be found here: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/pub/herweijer/herweijer_swc_2005.pdf Note that I am not arguing that changes in ocean heat transport are responsible for 20th century warming. Instead I am simply advocating that SkS be a little more careful in the wording that they use to rebut the 'internal variability' argument.
  11. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    Suggested reading: “Solar energy covers earth’s needs thousands of times over,” Lars J. Nilsson, Lund University, Nov 1, 2011 To access this informative article, click here.
  12. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    92 Sphaerica: Ha! You have no evidence that there are no turtles on the side you cannot see. The primary metric must be the number of unseen turtles.
  13. Renewables can't provide baseload power
    Suggested reading: “Solar energy covers earth’s needs thousands of times over,” Lars J. Nilsson, Lund University, Nov 1, 2011 To access this informative article, click here.
  14. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    Just reading Steven Pinker's Better Angels and he uses the quote: "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." —Voltaire That'll be why these people work so hard on the absurdities .. to promote the atrocity of inaction.
  15. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    @Albtross #90: Who is Neven and why is his reaction to Curry significant?
    Response:

    [DB] Neven is the proprietor of the Arctic Sea Ice blog - probably the finest blog resource of its kind in the inter-tubes.  Imagine John Cook on ice...

  16. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    Sasquatch - Please, see post @ 93, and my reply to you on the linked (on topic) thread. And then comment there. You do not appear to be following the links folks have provided to you in this discussion.
  17. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    Sasquatch wrote: "When the wind doesn't blow enough, or blows to hard; or the sun isn't shining - from what source are we going to draw power?" The sun is always shining and the wind always blowing somewhere. Ergo, as was already explained to you, a large enough grid solves this problem. Likewise, excess energy from peak production times can simply be stored for later use. The Gemasolar concentrated solar plant in Spain uses molten salt storage... enough to provide 15 hours of baseload power with no sunlight at all. The technology to get around temporary and localized lack of wind or solar energy already exists and is already being implemented.
  18. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    104, Sasquatch, Never and nowhere if the "it can't be done and it's not necessary" obstructionists keep pushing it aside.
  19. Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 2
    #21, and to add to #22, this is the point I was (perhaps clumsily) making in #3. Calculate the squared deviations from the assumed model. Now that deniers are no longer questioning the reliability of the temperature data, they are proposing models that have no physical basis. To slice and dice, cutting the fit into 4 constant sections and fitting the 4 intervening levels, requires 7 parameters (the 3 cut locations plus the 4 levels). These parameters are varied to find the least-square-deviation. But this makes no more sense than fitting to a 6th order polynomial, which also has 7 parameters. There is no physical basis. The underlying denialist motivation is to show at any cost that there is no relation between rising CO2 levels and rising T.
  20. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    KR @ 87 "All that aside - it appears quite possible to produce dependable baseload power with renewables." Where is this happening? Or, better yet, when is it going to happen? When the wind doesn't blow enough, or blows to hard; or the sun isn't shining - from what source are we going to draw power?
  21. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    91, muoncounter, Your photo is obviously fabricated. Where is the turtle on which the earth rests? Surely you can do better than this.
  22. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 2
    "The skeptics have no better theory, or indeed any theory, to explain all of the observational evidence of man-made global warming." That is such an important point. Science doesn't work by criticizing arguments and trying to deny the evidence, but by building and testing competing theories. "Skeptics" don't have any consistent theory that explains all the data. Moreover, in order to deny each piece of evidence, they eventually get into contradictions (as documented here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/contradictions.php). Another important point, IMHO, is that global warming is not some kind of surprising feature of our world that we need to come up with explanations for. Global Warming was a prediction, an expected consequence of dumping billions of tons of CO2 to the atmosphere. Speaking of contradictions; one minor quibble. Point 6 end with "To be a climate skeptic is to remain a skeptic" but point 7 you state about Muller that "we should no longer consider him one" Besides, I don't think I agree with point 6. There are "skeptics" that changed their mind. Michael Shermer comes to mind; he wasn't "sold" on the idea of climate change but some years ago he ended accepted reality. While I accept that your characterization applies to many "skeptics", I don't think is fair to generalize.
  23. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    90 Albatross: Surely you must admit that there is no basis for saying the world isn't flat. Don't try to show me 'photographs' or some other such 'data;' that's all clearly manipulated to hide the flatness. -- source Based on this one image, there is no consensus. If you suggest otherwise, we'll just have to agree to disagree.
  24. Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 2
    The sceptical view show and important trend.... Seems to me for the sceptical view, the slope is getting more shallow with every decade. At some point it will level off and start to rise in every decade mostly. Scary stuff.
  25. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    JMurphy @86 and CBDunkerson@89, Oh goodness, the wheels really are coming off now. Even the ever patient and reasonable Dr. Bart Verheggen is troubled by her musings. And Neven is having nothing of it: "Neven | November 8, 2011 at 6:43 am | Reply Dr Curry, if you think I’m a CAGW ideologue, I would again kindly urge you to remove the links to the Arctic Sea Ice blog and graphs page from your blogroll. We don’t want to be associated with each other." So Curry has just burned another bridge. She can add Neven to her list which now includes Schmidt, Trenberth, Verheggen, Tobis, Muller and many more. Fine job she is doing of being self-professed 'peacemaker". The juvenile and vitriolic crowd on her blog are now projecting their petulance on Neven, but whatever. Right now, I would not be too surprised if Curry claimed that the earth is flat. Bad times. Pretty pathetic times too given that we are even having this discussion instead of how aggressively we should be reducing our GHGs.
  26. SkS Weekly Digest #23
    Here's why we must double-down on our individual and collective efforts to educate people about what scientific community is telling us about climate change. “There's been a lot of talk recently that the world is finally facing an economic reckoning — a final past-due bill for those years of living so far beyond our means. The truth is we're facing a climate reckoning as well. The two are fatally intertwined — and they're going to be impossible to solve separately, if they can be solved at all.” “The Kyoto Accords — and Hope — Are Expiring,” Time Magazine, Nov 8, 2011 To access the entire article, click here.
  27. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    There is an article in the International Business Times which claims that Curry is now denying that humans have caused any warming. I doubt this is true, as it would indicate that Curry had completely lost touch with reality... but I have to wonder how she plans to continue in her role of 'peacemaker' now that she has become the de facto standard bearer for global warming denial.
  28. SkS Weekly Digest #23
    Composer99, it has been passed: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-08/carbon-tax-passes-senate/3652438
  29. SkS Weekly Digest #23
    Any word on Australia passing the carbon tax? I've been led to understand that took place just today (Australian dates).
  30. Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 2
    All 'best fit' trend lines and curves should be calculated from linear least squares. As long as the errors are normally distributed.
  31. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 1
    Dr. Pielke Sr. proposed Moist enthalpy as the primary metric in Davey, Pielke, Gallo 2006, Global and Planetary Change: "Changes in heat content of the Earth's climate are not fully described by temperature alone. Moist enthalpy or, alternatively, equivalent temperature, is more sensitive to surface vegetation properties than is air temperature and therefore more accurately depicts surface heating trends." Now, of course, it's OHC.
  32. Luxembourgish translation of The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Ah, I thought it was Rosa Luxemburg.
  33. Luxembourgish translation of The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
    Luxembourg has its own language? Cool.
  34. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    Peacemaker ? I think we all know that that is nonsense. It would be far more rational to believe that she is putting it all on and is merely taking the 'peace'...
  35. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    86 JMurphy: "Curry seems to have started channelling" But she's supposed to be a peacemaker!
  36. Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 2
    21 Jsquared: "Why isn't minimizing the squared error (least squares) an acceptable way of getting at this?" To a degree, it is the acceptable way. All 'best fit' trend lines and curves should be calculated from linear least squares. However, you can always decrease root-mean-squared error (RMSE) by simply adding additional powers to a best fit polynomial; the problem is then: what physical model justifies higher order curves? So the physics isn't 'biasing' the choice of curves, the physics is a prime control over the choice of curves. The step function is a not a best fit unless one makes an ad hoc chopped salad out up the time interval and then presumes that each section is flat. How physical is that model? And why doesn't anyone on the 'steptic' side ever ask these questions?
  37. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    102 MAR: Have you looked here for conversion factors? 1 g C = 0.083 mole CO2 = 3.664 g CO2 1 ppm by volume of atmosphere CO2 = 2.13 Gt C
  38. Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 2
    Regarding step vs linear: seems to me this is basically a mathematical argument about what curve best fits the data. Why isn't minimizing the squared error (least squares) an acceptable way of getting at this? The physics may bias your choice of functions to consider, of course.
  39. Baked Curry: The BEST Way to Hide the Incline
    Curry seems to have started channelling Monckton by referring to "CAGW idealogues". Maybe that nice meal she had with him recently turned her around to his way of thinking...
  40. Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 1
    Michael Sweet wrote: "Pielke Sr advocated using satelite data as the primary metric of AGW during this time, perhaps this relates to his current proposal to use ocean heat" Hi Michael. Do you have a link or citation for Pielke's advocacy of the satellite data? If he really claimed that should be taken as 'the primary metric' and has now switched to advocating for the 'top 700 meter OHC' it really seems like he is just latching on to any metric which doesn't show continuous warming IF you accept non statistically significant trends as valid.
  41. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    Re @80 (& @68, @74, & @76) above. It's good to definitively sort out what these gigatons are and what the year was. Then it is sad that the answer brings a concept of increased complexity down from the sky into 'emissions' and with it the latitude for more unwanted argument & dissembling. And that in an issue already complicated enough. It's also bad because reducing emissions significantly below 2010 levels will require more emission cutting than 'peaking before 2020' which was my previous understanding of the required global emissions goal. That said, is it possible to be more exact about GtCO2e? I'm hoping the conversion from GtCO2e emissions to atmospheric ppmCO2e is the simpler one (ie the same calculation used to convert GtCO2 to ppmCO2 or x40%/2.13). The 2010 emissions 48 GtCO2e being 25% higher than 2010 emissions 38 GtCO2 looks about right for such an assumption. Then my assumptions have failed me on this already. And the paper linked @74 above gives 2005 emissions 45 GtCO2e which is 50% higher than the 30.7 GtCO2 2005 emissions. (The 45 GtCO2e is referenced to this UNEP paper but I do not see the number there! I do see its Note 12 suggesting my assumption of a simple GtCO2e is wrong! Although Fig 1 strongly suggests less that careful authorship.) With methane concentrations flat in 2005, 50% is surely impossibly high if the conversion is the simple one I assume. Then the 2005 50% multiplier could have been borrowed from the 1990s.
    Response:

    [DB] Fixed links.

  42. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    100 - adelady "(I expect there were other groups on other islands who probably turned them into some kind of worship-worthy tribal symbol and maintained their populations.)" not this particular case, but for those interested in that kind of thing may I recommend the fabulous Roy Rappaport and his "Pigs for the Ancestors: Ritual in the Ecology of a New Guinea People"
  43. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    chriskoz "The mentality of other cultures, i.e. Pacific Islanders, Aboriginals are different as you noted." Even there we find huge variations. Saw an item on teev recently about at least one Pacific Island and their turtle population a century or so ago. They just kept eating eggs and turtles until there were no more. (I expect there were other groups on other islands who probably turned them into some kind of worship-worthy tribal symbol and maintained their populations.) Culture and religion can be important influences for both good and bad outcomes.
  44. Sober up: world running out of time to keep planet from over-heating
    Ger, Lovelock was talking about "tribal mentality" in European sense, wherein selfish "people-first-and-only" attitude always prevailed. Nature/land was always considered an infinite resource. Such culture led to the concept of exponontial growth economy that is still deeply engraved in most minds, especially right wing politicians, in EU, NAmerica, Australia, China. That conservative thinking persists despite the clear evidence that we are hitting the limits of "exponential growth". The mentality of other cultures, i.e. Pacific Islanders, Aboriginals are different as you noted. Unfortunately those were swamped and almost anihilated by white man as was the case in OZ. Now it the best time to say pardon (I was said in OZ some 3y ago) and learn something about the way of living sustainable and respectful to the land. Incidently, the first step has just been made in OZ itself: they've just approved the emmission trading scheme in Canberra today. The first time white man recognised the land and air has value Down Under!
  45. SkS Weekly Digest #23
    DMarshall@5 I can feel a "snow job" coming on.
  46. SkS Weekly Digest #23
    DMarshall : "...they've been cranking up the "another Little Ice Age is coming" publicity machine. If this is a bad winter and if next year is significantly cooler than the last few, expect them to shout victory from the rooftops." I'm lost now : are they saying that the earth is warming (and they have all been saying that all along, apparently) or are they saying that the earth is cooling ? Or is it both, depending on how they feel each day ?! Anyway, there was a programme on the BBC recently (Will it Snow ? - although probably only accessible within the UK) which had the Met Office reckoning that this Winter in the UK shouldn't be as bad as the last couple. Fingers crossed...
  47. SkS Weekly Digest #23
    DMarshall @8 Political polarisation strikes again it would seem.
  48. SkS Weekly Digest #23
    @Stevo Romney seems to have been steadily shifting towards denial as the leadership race progresses, despite having nearly implemented a cap-and-trade program in his days as governor. His most recent statements are that America shouldn't waste trillions of dollars on reducing emissions because polluters will just move elsewhere and he's been calling for aggressive use and development of domestic fossil fuel and nuclear.
  49. Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 2
    Err Steve @19, who are you arguing with? Right now it seems like you are arguing mostly with yourself. Your original question regarding the warming in the top 700 m was and is off topic. It seems that you are talking about oceanic heat content. Please take that to the appropriate thread. Try here. Regarding sea level might I suggest posting here. And regarding the loss of ice from Antarctica might I suggest posting here.
  50. SkS Weekly Digest #23
    DMarshall and Albatross, I'm not quite keeping up with developments in the GOP. Does Romney still maintain AGW is real or has he changed horses?

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