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Comments 75201 to 75250:

  1. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    WRT Dr. Pielke's most recent post, he says: Skeptical Science writes "A large amount of warming is delayed, and if we don’t act now we could pass tipping points." However, there is NO delayed warming when we measure in units of heat (Joules). A measurement of the heat in the oceans at two different time periods tells us what heating has occurred over this interval... This is appallingly wrong. A measurement of ocean temperatures tells us only the current temperatures, whereas the 'delayed warming' describes the warming that will continue to occur until the forcing imbalances are cancelled out. This is warming that we are committed to by the forcing changes such as GHG increases. This is a completely bogus statement on Dr. Pielke's part. He should know better, and I'm saddened to see someone of his stature producing it.
  2. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Rob @23, I agree. Look for a very long time now, those who are concerned about AGW have given "skeptics" a lot of leeway, too much leeway. Well, you can only turn the other cheek so many times. This is an important issue, so "skeptics" can no longer expect to cherry-pick, distort, and misrepresent the science at will. And their apologists can expect to be criticized for doing so. I will concede that the names of the series in question are "cheeky", but they were intended to be catchy. Predictably, Pielke is hiding behind that as a weak excuse to dismiss the severity of the misinformation propagated by Spencer and Christy; but him doing so does not change the fact that Spencer and Christy are in the habit of misinforming and spreading doubt and confusion. Would Pielke prefer if we were more direct by saying Christy's half truths" or "Christy's misinformation"? That would be a very accurate description of the statements that are discussed in the series. So Dr. Pielke can save us his indignance, especially in light of the disparaging remarks that he has made against his colleagues and his clear double standard.
  3. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    I would suggest that Dr Pielke perform a little experiment. Read a dozen or so articles from WUWT and rate them for inflammatory tone. Then read the same number of articles on SkS and rate them for inflammatory tone. After that go check the website stats for each of these websites. From this information please tell us which side of the debate needs to cool their heels.
  4. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    Your second point does not address the ocean temperature correlation presented in the paper. As to 3, in what universe is a .47 correlation "dismal". One need only observe the fit to refute your disparagement. And de-trending data prior to correlation analysis is standard practice, especially when one is trying to separate stimulus from response in non-linear systems with memory. In such systems, the variance is often rectified and when integrated, the resulting ramp will always de-correlate the system's dynamic response. The authors address this issue: As for the upward linear trend removed from Fig. 2 (lower), it is customary to attribute to greenhouse gases any increase in global temperatures not due to solar changes. While that is reasonable, one cannot distinguish between the effects of anthropogenic gases such as carbon dioxide and of natural greenhouse gases. In other words, whatever the source of the trend, it is safe to assume it is a response to a forcing. If all of the forcing stimuli can be accounted for through regression, how is it possible to attribute the trend to some other stimulus?

    Perhaps you could elaborate on your final point and respond to the criticism of the PMOD data used by Lockwood/Frolich. To the untrained observer, it is non-obvious where the charge of poor science should land.

  5. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dr Pielke states in his response... "Skeptical Science would do more of a service to the science community if they accurately presented their (and my viewpoints), even when they disagree, rather than disparage those who disagree with them." My jaw is agape at the sheer audacity of this statement. Has Pielke never read Spencer's blog? Anthony Watts blog? Goddard's blog? McIntyre's blog? Dare I say, JoNova's blog? Dr Pielke seems to be completely and utterly oblivious of the tone that has been set by the climate deniers in this public debate. Literally, this is like saying we should stop shooting real bullets at the planes that are carpet bombing the place.
  6. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    jpat#33: "Unless the data and/or analysis can be challenged" Done and done; see the prior intermediate and advanced rebuttals It's cosmic rays.
  7. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    A truly astounding response by Dr. Pielke Sr.. Dr. Pielke - Your first article, Scientific Robustness Of The University Of Alabama At Huntsville MSU Data, inaccurately accused the SkS site of attacking the MSU data, and of ad hominem attacks against Spencer and Christy. The MSU data is valued by every poster and presentation here that I've seen, and you really really need to look up the definition of ad hominem - the articles here address the science (and science failures, and misrepresentations before Congress and the press) presented by Spencer and Christy, not personal attacks. After you have refreshed yourself on that definition of ad hominem, I suggest you take a critical look at Roy Spencer's blog, including his consistent ad hominem statements about the IPCC and motivations thereof. You then follow up with My Response To The Skeptical Science Post “One-Sided ‘Skepticism” a Gish Gallop of nonsense attacking this thread without ever addressing a single point made in the article. I hope you have some idea of just how poor a light you are currently painting yourself with...
  8. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    first off jpat, Svensmark and Friis-Christensen's (S-F)web report isn't "published" at all. It's a report posted on the web. Secondly the data in Figure 2 has nothing in particular to say about the relationship between global temperature variation and cosmix ray flux (CRF). Since the CRF marches pretty much in (antiphase) step with the solar irradiance (TSI), any apparent correlation between tropospheric temperature is likely simply to be due to the TSI variation which is known to affect tropospheric temperature. Thirdly the correlation is pretty dismal anyway -0.47. Fourthly the apparent correlation only works when the actual seculr warming trend has been removed! In other words the cumulative warming has nothing to do with changes in solar outputs which have been broadly trendless (trending in a cooling direction since the mid 1980's) as Lockwood and Frolich have described pretty categorically. Fifthly, S-F's "response" to Lockwood/Frolich is based on a completely misguided interpretation of Lockwood/Frolich as is apparent from reading S-F's first paragraph. It's poor science, and would never have passsed peer review if an attempt had been made to publish it.
  9. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dr. Pielke responded very quickly to Dana's post, yet he doesn't seem to be able to find time to answer a very simple question originally posed to him: "Do you or do you not approve of John Christy's misleading testimony to US Congress, including his assertion that predictions of global cooling in the 1970s were the same as predictions of global warming today?" Waiting. Alas, so far all we have is this.
  10. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    dana1981 - your comment presumes the climatic system exhibits time invariance, which would be quite surprising given that high-order, non-linear systems generally are not TE. As I said, the correlation is quite convincing. Unless the data and/or analysis can be challenged, the proof would seem to be in the pudding, as they say.
  11. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    jpat - your link doesn't work, but considering that CR flux on Earth hasn't increased in the past 60 years, somehow I doubt the accuracy of Svensmark and Friis-Christensen's purported correlation.
  12. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    Fixed link to the paper referenced above. Sorry for the slip.
  13. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Oh dear, after reading Pielke Sr's "response" SkS may have a whole bunch more 'skeptic' myths to dispel. For example, his claim that: "There has not been warming significantly, if at all, since 2003, as most everyone on all sides of the climate issue agree." Not relevant and it depends which metric you are using and if it is OHC how much of the data one uses (does one use all the argo data or does one use the top X metres that gives the desired lack of warming?) But Dr. Pielke, you also say on your blog, in response to Santer et al. (2011) that: "There has been NO long-term trend since the large El Nino in 1998. That’s 13 years." We'll ignore the blatant cherry picking of 1998 for now, but it does raise an interesting question. Dr. Pielke did the warming cease in 1998 or 2003? You cherry-picking 2003, also seems to fly in the face of this statement made by you on your blog: "I agree with Santer et al that “[m]inimal warming over a single decade does not disprove the existence of a slowly-evolving anthropogenic warming signal.”" Why then select a statistically meaningless short window of time?
  14. Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas
    @ CBDunkerson - At times it certainly could be 95%. - Water vapor varies by 3 orders of magnitude... http://www.gly.uga.edu/railsback/Fundamentals/AtmosphereCompIV.pdf ... and a major defect in the CO2 models is that they assume it is constant. - It is also different in concentration [and behavior with light] at different altitudes in addition to varying between humid and desert areas near the surface. - Plus it's been going up right along with CO2. The CO2 models I've dug into all assume cloud configurations that are 10 to 40 years old. - With a ~10 day Residence Time it not only varies greatly it varies quickly -and- it also moves a great deal of heat around with it when it moves. - Assuming a huge and rapidly changing factor [one that varies by 3 orders of magnitude] as a constant is a lapse of reasonable thought. - There isn't gong to be a good climate model until water vapor is properly accounted for. .
  15. CERN - Saying Nothing About Cosmic Ray Effects on Climate
    A balance discussion of this topic should include the work of Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, the challenge of Lockwood and Fröhlich and especially their reply. Fig 2 shows a convincing correlation between global mean tropospheric temperatures and CR data when the data is properly adjusted for known forcings. Any comments/refutations of these published results?
  16. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    It will be very interesting to see what Joe Romm and crew have to say about this brouhaha.
  17. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dr. Pielke, Let me remind you what you wrote: "As a result of the persistent, but incorrect (often derogatory) blog posts and media reports on the robustness of the University of Alabama MSU temperature data....The ad hominem presentations on this subject [i.e.., the UAH data] include those from the weblog Skeptical Science who have sections titled Christy Crocks and Spencer Slip Ups" That statement by you was wrong-- you were clearly trying to implicate SkS in some strongly worded recent critique of the UAH product and its developers (which reminds me, you seem to have a very selective memory as to how that all unfolded), and you would have known that it was wrong of you to state we were implicated had you read the series. It is unfortunate that you cannot concede error on your part. Equally unfortunateis that you elect to turn a blind eye to the repeated misinformation and half-truths propagated by Watts, Spencer and Christy and others. Yes, Spencer and Christy undertook some novel work with the MSU data, but that does not mean they now get free pass to continually berate their colleagues, misinform, float conspiracy theories, politicize science, confuse and mislead the US Congress. Or do you disagree? Again, you were wrongly trying to implicate SkS in some strongly worded critique of the UAH product, and your "arguments" to the contrary on your blog do not hold up. We have of course discussed the UAH product here at SkS, why wouldn't we for goodness' sakes? In fact, it is stated at SkS that: "The original discrepancy is an excellent example of how science works and of critical thinking. With many different indicators showing warming, it did not make sense that the troposphere would be cooling. This discrepancy was taken very seriously by the scientific community, and the consistency and accuracy of all relevant data were examined intensely. Science advances by trial and error. The result is an increased knowledge of how to measure the temperature of the troposphere from space." In both Spencer's and Christy's bios shown at the beginning of the series, we mention that they received an award from NASA for their work with the MSU data. But by all means please do continue to choose to think what you wish to.
  18. Santer et al. Catch Christy Exaggerating
    The most disgraceful aspect is the cherrypicked starting date in 1998, which Pielke knows was a huge El Nino year. But yes, Santer et al. used both RSS and UAH data.
  19. Climate Communication: Making Science Heard and Understood
    pirate, I think you should be putting a lot more energy into advancing our discussion before you teach too much one way or the other about climate science to your students. Based on where we are so far in the discussion, I know that you have huge gaps and misunderstandings about the science. It would be best if we filled those gaps and corrected the misunderstandings as soon as possible. One of the hardest things to do with a student is to un-teach something once they've learned it. Their misconceptions then go on to poison everything they attempt to learn afterwards.
  20. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Of SkS he says it "is not balanced in the presentation of the existing research findings in climate science". Should we learn from him, with a rapidly spiralling credibility? But don't worry, maybe he'll recover, just like arctic sea ice after 2007.
  21. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Pielke Sr.'s response sure does beg a lot of questions.
  22. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    True Albatross, Pielke's "response" has just confirmed the basis of this post. I've updated the update to note this.
  23. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Dana, I thought that, in a way, Pielke Sr's "response" rather enforces your points. Re "comprehension", I think that he may be seeing/reading what he wishes to see/read. I encourage, no urge, Dr. Pielke to defend his accusations and statements here at SkS.
  24. Santer et al. Catch Christy Exaggerating
    Dana, It is a double-cherry pick by Pielke. The RSS trend for the cherry-picked window is slightly negative. He claims that he used RSS b/c that is what Santer et al. used, when in fact they clearly used both RSS and UAH as shown in Fig. 6. What he did is quite disgraceful really.
  25. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Yes the post has been updated to reference Pielke's "response", if you can even call it that. It's more of a goalpost shifting Gish Gallop which doesn't address a single thing we said here.
  26. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    And just as I predicted, instead of trying to engage SkS is a constructive and open discussion here, Pielke has just posted another 'attack' on SkS on his blog, in which he argues so many strawmen that I lost count! It is essentially a Gish Gallop, with some misinformation thrown in for good measure. It does not constitute a "response" at all, and he did not answer the questions put to him about Christy And I note again, his site does not allow comments. I expect that his post will soon appear on a "skeptic" blog like WUWT. Perhaps he did answer one question posed to him, it is clear from his response that Pielke Sr. is more interested in covering up the misinformation propagated by "skeptics" than he is interested in standing up for scientific integrity and honesty.
  27. Santer et al. Catch Christy Exaggerating
    Albatross #7 - even if we go along with Pielke's absurd cherrypick of 1998 as a starting point (ENSO is amplified more in the satellite data than surface temps, and 1998 was the strongest El Nino in a century, not to mention that, as you note, 13 years is shorter than the 17 required as noted by Santer et al.), UAH still shows a trend of 0.06°C/decade over that period. It's small, and certainly not statistically significant, but it's not zero either, despite the utterly absurd cherrypick.
  28. 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
    Rob @409, Sorry, probably poor wording on my part. I was taking a dig at claims made by "skeptics" claim that the models are too sensitive, and that the IPCC exaggerates things. But that is wrong and you raise an important tissue. From the abstract of the paper that you linked us to: "State-of-the-art climate models are largely untested against actual occurrences of abrupt change. It is a huge leap of faith to assume that simulations of the coming century with these models will provide reliable warning of sudden, catastrophic events."
  29. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Riccardo @8, Yes, those were egregious examples of cherry-picking by Pielke Sr. and was promptly dealt with by RealClimate. Sadly, he seems to be at it again, see my post at SkS here.
  30. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Pielke Sr., being 'constructive' "In conclusion, the EPA Endangerment findings is the culmination of a several year effort for a small group of climate scientists and others to use their positions as lead authors on the IPCC, CCSP and NRC reports to promote a political agenda." Here: "[T]he paper was received 11 August 2011 and accepted 29 August 2011. This is some type of record in my experiences as editor, and indicates that the paper was fast tracked. This is certainly unusual" Constructive is nice and the goal, but let's get it 'right' first. Here: "Of course, it is always pleasant to have documentation that these individuals are inappropriately using their senior positions to prejudice the scientific assessment and publication process, as I have reported on my weblog for several years. What is more important, however, is that the significance of this breach of the scientific method be recognized by the policymakers and other scientific colleagues who have requested climate assessments."
  31. Santer et al. Catch Christy Exaggerating
    Now I am going to turn my attention to Roger Pielke Sr.'s intriguing critique of Santer et al. (2011). He makes some odd claims. Unfortunately, he (despite demands for the climate community to be more open and transparent) does not permit comments on his blog, so I'll do it here. His first comment is rather bizarre. He says "This is an unusual number of co-authors for a technical paper, but I assume Ben Santer wants to show a broad agreement with his findings." It is not at all that unusual, he clearly missed the authorship of the recent Kirkby et al. (2011) paper in nature. Anyways, such an irrelevant observation is rather petty. He is then perturbed that Santer et al. ignored his important paper that he co-authored with Christy et al. in 2010. He then stretches, I mean really stretches, to try and make a link between Santer et al. (2011) having the temerity to ignore their "important" paper (published in an obscure journal (Remote Sensing) around which a controversy is raging for giving a free pass to a dodgy paper by fellow 'skeptic' Spencer. But I digress, this framing by Pielke Sr. smacks of desperation, because the papers deal with two very different issues. From the abstract of Santer et al. (2011): "We compare global-scale changes in satellite estimates of the temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT) with model simulations of forced and unforced TLT changes . While previous work has focused on a single period of record, we select analysis timescales ranging from 10 to 32 years..." From Christy et al. (2010): "Updated tropical lower tropospheric temperature datasets covering the period 1979–2009 are presented and assessed for accuracy based upon recent publications and several analyses conducted here." They were clearly looking at very different areas of the planet, global versus tropical only, additionally Christy et al. (2010) also looked at the ratio of warming aloft and that at the surface in the tropics, with Santer et al. looking at the warming over the lower troposphere. Pielke then takes issue with this statement in Santer et al. (2011): "….temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.” Not sure that he makes a compelling case, he just interprets the text differently. But why I pint this out now is that later, says this: "I agree with Santer et al that “[m]inimal warming over a single decade does not disprove the existence of a slowly-evolving anthropogenic warming signal.” OK, so far so good, but then Pielke make this ludicrous assertion: "There has been NO long-term trend since the large El Nino in 1998. That’s 13 years. [His underlining] So after just saying that he agrees with Santer and knowing that one of the major findings of the paper was that one cannot use trends calculate dover periods of less than 17 years to infer anything about the rate of warming, Pielke goes and says "there has been no warming for 13 years", and he conveniently chooses 1998 as his start point! Unbelievable. And Santer et al. find that the signal-to-noise ratio for 10 year trends is near one, and Pielke proudly states no warming for 13 years. Now how about we actually calculate the trend in the RSS satellite data for a minimum period of 17 years as found by Santer et al. (2011), so for 1994-2010: That trend is slope = 0.11 C per decade. For 20 years the trend increases to 0.18 C per decade. So if one look sat the appropriate data interval then the warming continues. Now here is another interesting fact, and an ironic one at that given that Pielke is accusing others of ignoring his "important" research. In 2010 two papers came out, Thorne et al. (2010) and Johnson and Xie (2010). Sks discusses the papers here. Both those papers' findings refute the claim made in Christy et al. (2010) that: "This result indicates the majority of AR4 simulations tend to portray significantly greater warming in the troposphere relative to the surface than is found in observations." Specifically, Thorne et al. (2010) find: "It is concluded that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively." Johnson and Xie (2010) find: "We conclude that, in contrast with some observational indications, the tropical troposphere has warmed in a way that is consistent with moist-adiabatic adjustment, in agreement with global climate model simulations." Can I find a discussion of Thorn et al. (2010) or Johnson and Xie et al. (2010) on Pielke's site? No. I did find this though :) Pielke's critique of Santer et al. is far, far from objective, his biases are clear. In fact, is nothing more than an effort to dismiss their results and try place the focus on their perceived "important" work which has since been refuted by Thorne et al. It also shows that Pielke Snr. is still determined to cherry-pick data to arrive at preconceived (and biased) conclusions. And let it also be noted that at no time did Pielke Sr. acknowledge that Christy had grossly exaggerated his numbers and misled congress.
  32. Arctic sea ice low – what does it really mean?
    Micawber, very interesting. Thanks for the first hand perspectives. I've often wondered about the amount of heat 'imported' into the Arctic ocean from the Atlantic and Pacific and whether this will change as the ice breaks up and new current patterns emerge.
  33. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    We should not forget that Roger Pielke Sr. is the one who claimed that oceans have not been warming in the last few years, artic sea ice was recovering after 2007, sea level rise has flattened after 2006, etc. That was blatant cherry picking or confusing variability with trend. This time he managed to do worse, attributing to SkS a claim which is nowhere to be found in this site. A retraction would be appropiate.
  34. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Rob @6, "This is an absurd statement given the tone of most all of Roy Spencer's posts on his own website." Agreed Rob. And ironic too how Pielke turns a blind eye to the real culprits who are sabotaging constructive, polite and civil discourse, for example WUWT. Pielke Sr. doth protest too much. Given his response to the SkS post and his disparaging remarks made about his colleagues, it is becoming increasingly difficult seriously entertain Dr. Pielke Sr.'s indignant pronouncements of others allegedly behaving badly.
  35. Arctic sea ice low – what does it really mean?
    Judging from a regression analysis of Cryosat Today’s ice area data, there was no significant trend toward earlier or later minimum dates over 1979-2010. By a thin margin, CT area also reached a new low point in 2011: 2.90m km^2 on Sep 10. http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/08/the-modern-area-of-ice.html
  36. Climate Communication: Making Science Heard and Understood
    pirate#19: "the survy is not for the students. It is a survey designed by the students. " Physics uses 'concept inventories': before and after assessments. Observed change from pre-conceived opinion to some level of understanding is easy to quantify with these results in hand. I'm not seeing the educational benefit to a survey-writing exercise in a science class. Are you taking steps to preclude your students form basing their own conclusions on the opinions expressed by a potentially misinformed population? Or are you just looking for another 'datapoint' in the never ending quest to show there's no consensus?
  37. Arctic sea ice low – what does it really mean?
    A big factor in sea ice is whether it is single or multi-year ice. When sea ice first freezes if forms a mush that thickens and solidifies. Brine drains through this to find its way downwards. This single year ice is not a particularly good conductor. The major heat loss is through the surface during winter darkness and temps ~minus 40degC. In the 1970s and 80s not all the ice melted especially off Northern Canada towards the pole. In this region second and third year growth continued as landfast ice. Multiyear ice has denser crystalline structure and is more difficult to melt. (and a lot more difficult to drill through) From looking at CRREL data and from personal experience, I note spring melt tends to be about 2/3 from the bottom warmer water intrusions. The sun and warmer air temps tend to account for the other third. There was controversy a year to two ago when the sea ice extent was reported as getting larger. A Canadian team who actually went onto the ice reported it was mostly rotten single year ice with very little multi-year ice in existence. (See EOS Transactions of AGU 16 Feb 201 for two reviews:- Ice is rotten in the Beaufort Sea Geophys. Res Letters, doi:10.1029/2009GL041424,2009 Heat flow from the Pacific contributes to Arctic sea ice melt Geophys Res Letters doi:101029/2009GL04121.2010) It is the large volumes of 'rotten' multi-year ice that accounts for the accelerating melting rates and trend towards a totally ice-free Arctic. I have myself measured under ice conditions during breakup of arctic rivers. In the 20min measuring interval water went from -1.8degC at salinity ~40ppt (brine) to 0deg salinity 0 (ice cold freshwater) from the land drainage flowing out over and under the sea ice. Species diversity is low but those that live there survive these conditions without exploding or obvious stress. Bering Sea inflow is almost a an order of magnitude less than the North Atlantic drift up around Norway. But in certain years, related to ENSO, the heat flux through the Bering Strait into Chukchi and Beaufort seas can account for a third of ice lost as it did in 2007. I'm retired now and well remember the ice island T3 that circled in the Beaufort gyre for several years providing a stable ice platform and science base. It eventually left via Denmark Strait east of Greenland. The whole Arctic has changed drastically and the multi-year ice platforms and glacial fragments are not so common. I hope my comments are helpful.
  38. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Pielke states at the end of his article, "Similarly, weblogs such as Skeptical Science, if they want to move the debate on the climate issues forward, need to move towards a more constructive approach." This is an absurd statement given the tone of most all of Roy Spencer's posts on his own website. Pielke's comment is a little like being asked to apologize to the burglar for allowing him to break into your house. The tone set at SkS is accurate and direct. The material presented by the authors here is also accurate and direct, but sometimes the truth packs quite a punch. If anything it is the climate deniers who need to learn to work toward a more constructive rhetorical approach.
  39. Climate Communication: Making Science Heard and Understood
    "The purpose of the survey is to gauge the general knowledge, understanding, and beliefs of individuals asa pertaining to climate change, both historical, current and future. You are welcome to tweak that statement as well." The author of the survey flunked, then.
  40. Arctic sea ice low – what does it really mean?
    Jonathan: "Any significance to the minimum being earlier this year? The last several years showed the annual minimum occurring in mid to late September, while this year's minimum has apparently occurred in early September." Basically it's just the weather up there not being amenable to further compaction of the thin ice cover coupled with the freeze season getting underway in parts of the arctic. Nothing significant.
  41. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Albatross - I like your suggestion and have added it to the conclusion. Regarding ad hominem accusations, it's also ironic that Pielke's criticism was directed at SkS while defending Roy Spencer, who engages in ad hominem arguments constantly on his blog (i.e. "IPCC gatekeepers"). But Spencer and Christy's constant myth propagation is far worse than their ad hominems.
  42. Climate Communication: Making Science Heard and Understood
    Chortle--come now, Pirate, you know the attitudes represented in the "ridiculous" answers to no. 4 are shared by powerful politicians and pundits in the U.S.. Surely we can expect these leaders to have some sway with the public. I was just trying to be "fair and balanced." It's clear from your answer to number 2 that your answer to number 1 is wrong. Greenhouse gases do not trap heat like a greenhouse roof. The "bounce" answer was better, even though "bounce" (in quotes) is shorthand for "is repeatedly absorbed and emitted," and the mechanism whereby increased GHGs causes increased available energy is implied. I'll admit the survey wasn't produced by my normal writing process. (i.e. it was 'whipped out'). No. 5: provide an adequate answer. No. 6: "The seas will rise up and drown coastal cities." Where is this supported in the literature? Remember, this is a survey, not a test. It is designed to survey initial attitudes and basic understandings. It is not designed to test knowledge learned in a structured learning environment. A test would need to take into account course objectives. And, of course, as I've said elsewhere: "survey schmurvey." If I'm assigning the survey creation, I could care less about the actual answers to the questions. I'm far more interested in how the students justify the question text and choices (form and content). Indeed, I would probably have them, as small groups, provide a thorough statement of justification for each question. I'd then have them submit their surveys for professional and peer feedback. They'd then revise (and reflect on the revisions).
  43. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Rob @1, "Ironically, I find that everyone at SkS tends to use the UAH data as a confirmation that all the major data sets are in agreement about current warming." Indeed, but that was not always the case. And it seems from Dr. Pielke's blog post that he is applying a rather selective memory on exactly how events unfolded regarding the problems with the UAH data. So now that he has done so, someone might have to do a more thorough job of setting the record straight than Pielke Sr. did on his blog. But that is a matter for another day....
  44. Crux of a Core, Part 3... Dr. Ole Humlum
    Stig... I think he did adjust the chart but only to reflect the very lowest possible value presented by Dr Box's data. I'm going to take the long term approach to this and contact him when Dr Box publishes newer data. And I'll continue to contact Dr Humlum on an ongoing basis as newer data becomes available. The good news here is that because SkS has become a popular destination for people researching climate change issues, our articles on Humlum are more likely to come up in a google search than Humlum's site. So, people are more likely to learn about Humlum's site from us than anywhere else. In essence, we get to frame his work prior to people reading his work.
  45. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    As always, nicely done Dana. I might have worded the conclusion a little more strongly, something like: "By defending them but ignoring their errors, Pielke is providing cover for the misinformation propagated by Spencer and Christy. That's not being skeptical, that's excusing the blatant misinformation of the American public and policymakers. Pielke Sr. needs to decide what is more important, covering up for misinformation or standing up for science and truth." Now this will be interesting. Will Pielke Sr. respond by posting on an anti-science and advocacy blog like WUWT which has been used before to make threats against climate scientists (e.g., Monckton), or will he respond on his own blog (which does not allow comments, so people cannot challenge his assertions), of will he come here to constructively discuss the issues? With that all said, I think Pielke Sr. ought to apologize to John Cook. PS: And I do hope he answers the question put to him in the main post re Christy misleading Congress.
  46. Crux of a Core, Part 3... Dr. Ole Humlum
    I just took a look at Humlums website and he is still using the same diagram. He also defended the use of it in Teknisk Ukeblad (may) now in august. Rob @2 "I've told Dr. Humlum about this post but he says he's off on another trip into the field with students and will be out of touch. He might pop in to comment once he's back from that trip". I think he's back from that trip since he is constantly updating his website (but not the diagram and his a priori denialist beliefs). Perhaps Rob should write him again?
  47. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    I found it fascinating that Dr. Pielke accused SkS of ad hominem attacks - in a post of his that was later re-posted on WUWT, a prime home of ad hominem postings accusing practicing scientists of everything short of cannibalism. There is a serious lack of balance and fairness in Dr. Pielke's comments, and his claims of SkS ad hominem attacks on Spencer's and Christy's satellite data are, as noted, completely bogus. It is quite clear that Dr. Pielke has not read the articles he's complaining about.
  48. Santer et al. Catch Christy Exaggerating
    I'm surprised how little attention this important paper has received here at SkS. It is an important paper, IMHO, because it provides some concrete guidelines on the times scales that need to be considered for the purpose of evaluating models and for determining trends. It is also important, of course, because it shines a light on how "skeptics", even prominent ones who should know better (like Lindzen, Michaels and Pielke Sr.) love to cherry pick to arrive at a pre-determined answer and how they love to exaggerate, in this case Dr. John Christy. For example, recall how Lindzen was implicated in a set-up for Phil Jones? The "trap" was to try and demonstrate that there had been no statistically significant warming (which "skeptics and deniers of AGW took to incorrectly mean no warming) between 1995 and 2009 (15 years) in the HadCRUT global temperature dataset? Well, as it happens if one includes just one more year (16 years) the warming between 1995 and 2010 was statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The 16 years worth of data required to achieve that level of confidence in the HadCRUT data is consistent with the 17 years identified by Santer et al. (2011). So the challenge for "skeptics" now will be to cherry pick a dataset and a time window that shows not statistically significant warming for at least a 17 year period-- and then they can try and rehash the "planet is cooling" myth again ;)
  49. One-Sided 'Skepticism'
    Having read all the articles on both Spencer and Christy here at SkS it is abundantly clear that Pielke did not bother to read any of the posts before making his own comments. I would expect a scientist of his caliber to be a touch more careful and thorough before posting. Ironically, I find that everyone at SkS tends to use the UAH data as a confirmation that all the major data sets are in agreement about current warming. It gets pointed out that Spencer's early work with the UAH was in error but was corrected and now is in agreement with GISS, HadCRU, RSS, etc. Dr. Pielke, if you do bother to come and read this article, you might consider spending a little more time reading through what is actually published on this site. I think what you will find is that the articles posted here are accurate representations of the current published literature and are fully cited as such.
  50. Arctic sea ice low – what does it really mean?
    hyperactive - yes there's a lot of SST info. If you go to DMI and check that the map is showing the Arctic, you then choose from the left hand panel. Choose anomaly and the date you're interested in. Then play around with all the other nifty data on the site. (Terrible time eater if you let yourself get carried away.)

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