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One Planet Only Forever at 11:05 AM on 27 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
The NYT "Climate" desk has completed presenting a series of articles on Climate Change matters as part of the recognition of the 50th Anniversary of the first Earth Day.
A crash course on climate change, 50 years after the first Earth Day
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:27 AM on 27 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
nigelj,
Efforts to limit the growth of the population are important. More than 12 billion humans would likely be Unsustainable for many reasons.
And the total amount of energy consumed by the total human population needs to be reduced, because there is material consumption and negative impacts associated with any energy generation, even the renewables. And the less fortunate portion of the population will be developing towards the better lives lived by the more fortunate people. It would be completely unacceptable for the more fortunate to live in ways that the less fortunate have to be kept from living.
So the understandable requirements become the combination of:
- The production of energy for human use completely transitioned to renewable sources.
- Reduced amount of total energy consumption by humans, with the less fortunate people expected and assisted to develop to live like the more fortunate people. So the more fortunate people need to set the example of lower and totally renewable energy consumption ways of living.
- Reduced total amount of other consumption by the total human population, with the more fortunate leading by example.
- Limited human population growth, again with the more fortunate leading by example.
Moore's movie pretending that the solution could be 'fossil fuel energy used by a reduced population living with less energy' is indeed not practical. It is also not required.
What is required is achieving the entire set of Sustainable Development Goals. And that requires everything I have presented.
I continue to be amazed to see "Social Change Activists" appear to cherry-pick favorite issues while failing to present the importance of achieving and improving on the already established awareness and understanding of things like the entire suite of the Sustainable Development Goals.
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nigelj at 07:12 AM on 27 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Moore's movie discards renewable energy as a solution and instead the solution proposed is much lower energy use and slower population growth. Well that doesn't make much sense to me, because even the most optimistic projections of population growth falling arent fast enough to do that much to help the climate, and its unrealistic to expect people to slash their energy use by truly vast amounts. Obviously slower population gowth and lower energy use would help a bit, but are nowhere near sufficient answers. So we need renewable energy or at least clean energy ( maybe a tiny bit of nuclear power is ok as well).
Michael Moores motivations look political to me. He is a known sceptic of capitalism and elites, and has taken this to the point of absurdity of dismissing renewable energy because its associated with capitalism and elites. He is doing the mirror image of what denialists do in dismissing renewable energy because they hate the green movements left leaning politics.
This is sad because his movies are normally good value, and scepticism of elites is justified.
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Lawrence Tenkman at 05:16 AM on 27 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
MA Rodger,
Thank you so much for your kind resopnse. I much appreciate you. Very interesting. So complex.
It seems that the article by Willeit & Ganopolski (2018) suggest that much dust comes from the equatorial advancing edge of the glacier (erosion from the advancing ice edge as I understand?)… not necessarily plant death as Ellis & Palmer suggest. Also, albedo blunting for glaciation escape is not accomplished by dust alone… albedo is increasingly blunted by the increase of both snow age & of dust accumulation, combined together. Perhaps this explains the lack of a critical level for the dust as a single factor blunting albedo… as multiple factors that combine to do it.Those equations made my head hurt. I feel like a patient sitting in a doctor’s office asking questions and expecting them to make me understand concepts it took years of medical school to understand. For sure, that’s not possible, as I’d have to go through all the training you did… year by year ... more answers leading to more questions.
But I do appreciate you very much. Thank you for taking the time. Thank you for doing what you do.
LT
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Lawrence Tenkman at 01:49 AM on 27 April 2020Ice isn't melting
Would all the melted glacier ice dumping into the oceans artificially slow the temperature elevation of the ocean? Like a glass of ice tea in the sun, will the temp rise of the ocean accelerate after all the ice melts?
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HBrandt at 01:43 AM on 27 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
The air is clean, the sky bright blue, and it is quiet because traffic is now minimal. Granted it is a small sample size, but I have noticed a good sign for the climate/environment from this pandemic. My neighbor is now welcoming the idea of changing quickly to electric vehicles charged by wind and solar. A friend is accepting the reality of human-induced climate change. Let’s hope others follow these complete changes in perspective.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:18 AM on 27 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Sir Charles,
I have noticed The Usual Suspects cherry-picking the incorect or misleading bits from "Planet of the Humans" and using them as the basis for even more misleading or incorrect claims to attack and discredit the entire Realm of Environmental Protection.
I have also noticed that many people are able to correct the misleading comments in many ways, with the response to the corrections being the usual denial that the corrections are legitimate.
Reasoning motivated by Personal Interest can be incredibly harmfully incorrect and very resistant to expanded awareness and improved understanding.
This is often observed in the games of economics and politics, competitions for Impressions of Winning any way that can be gotten away with. It even influences thinking related to Sports, especially when Big Perceptions of Reward are at stake.
People who have developed a Devotion to an Activity, Sport, Team or Ideology can get Locked-In to narrow-minded short-term thinking and seek made-up excuses for all types of understandably unacceptable behaviours.
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MA Rodger at 23:47 PM on 26 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
Lawrence Tenkman @407,
To clear up the "parting comment", it appears in a 2015 blog-post linked at the last paragraph of #405 above. The denialist flavour of this "parting comment" does explain some of the very odd comment in Ellis & Palmer (2016).
The 'CO2 mechanism' I say is not explained is specific to the glacial maxima. Ellis & Palmer (2016) demonstrate temperature, dust and CO2 are correlated (in their figs 1, 4, 8 & 9). We could also include sea level/ice volume and methane into such correlations. So the question arises - What is driving what?
During the drop into an ice age we can be reasonably confident that reduced northern insolation allows a build-up of northern ice sheets reducing regional albedo which has a global impact on temperature and kicks-off positive feedbacks in albedo, CO2 & methane.But the glacial maxima appear to have a particular pattern to them, perhaps clearest when sea level is considered. The Ice Ages step up a gear as they dive into the maxima.
Ellis & Palmer point the finger at the CO2 feedbacks. They would have difficulty using albedo as the dust-levels are building at these points in the Ice Age cycle and Ellis & Palmer dismiss the idea of atmospheric dust-levels being a significant cooling factor.
Given the constraints placed on the workings of Ice Age maxima by Ellis & Palmer, their hypothesis seems to rely on some strong CO2 feedback that comes into play at this point in the Ice Age cycle. So my question - Are the measurements of CO2 showing a big enough reduction? What is causing these large reductions in CO2? And what causes these reductions to quickly reverse when the maxima is over?
And not greatly removed from any discussion of 'CO2 mechanism'....
Regarding the lack of 'threshold' for dust levels to bring Ice Ages out of their maxima, Ellis & Palmer Fig 4 (below) shows great variation in the peak level of dust as well as variation in the duration of high-dust prior to the glacial maxima. This I term a lack of 'threshold'. The general impression is that a generally high level of dust reducing albedo of global ice sheets awaits the increase in nothern insolation caused by the Milankovitch cycle.
But surely this variability means the power of the dust-reduced albedo forcing is not strong enough of itself to be the trigger. It is possible that analysis would show the Milankovitch cycle and the dust-albedo in combination provides a consistent threshold level, or perhaps CO2 levels are also a factor in the mix. But such necessary analysis would require an approach somewhat less simplistic than Ellis & Palmer. (For instance, compare the Ellis & Palmer approach with that of, say, Willeit & Ganopolski (2018).)
I think that covers the issues from #407, hopefully in an understandable form.
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SirCharles at 19:34 PM on 26 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
Hi folks,
You might have heard of Michael Moore's new film, "Planet of the Humans". Unfortunately, this movie is grossly flawed. Please find reviews here spotted by videographer Peter Sinclair:
Moore No Mas: New Film Drinks the Lysol
Stay safe!
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Lawrence Tenkman at 05:40 AM on 26 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
Scaddenp & MA Rodger,
Thank you so much for your responses.
MA Rodger, thank you for reading that article an phelping me with it. Please clarify a few things for me if you don’t mind. You mentioned that "Ellis & Palmer fail to explain the mechanism driving the CO2 reduction and why this cooling doesn't keep on going… and that the peak-dust levels do not appear to have a threshold level." My impression from reading was they propose Earth gets cold enough at the nadir of orbital Milankovitch cycle to start forming ice, and if enough ice forms, albedo is sufficient resist subsqeuent Milakovitch warming cycles, and Earth plunges into into a glacial period via increasing of both ice formation & ice albedo feedback. Ellis & Palmer suggest CO2 falls because the cold makes the ocean draw CO2 in (increased solubility of the cold water) and this CO2 drop is what stops further cooling, b/c plant death from low CO2 & low temp causes the dust.
It all sounded interesting to me… but even if their theory about dust were true about glaciation exit mechanisms, I don’t think it would be right to conclude that infinitely high man made CO2 & greenhouse doesn’t matter in today's world. This website has so much data suggesting we need to care.
I’m not sure what you mean by: "the peak-dust levels do not appear to have a threshold level." What does that mean? Threshhold referring to a temp or CO2 level at which dust forms? Threshhold referring to a level of dust at which it is can melt ice? I thought the dust elevations seemed to occur during temperature & CO2 nadirsand seemed to precede warming consistently.
Ellis & Palmer’s parting comment wasn’t in the website link I had (http://science.uwaterloo.ca/~mpalmer/stuff/ellis.pdf) (“So the only evil in this world is not in the atmosphere, it lies in the hearts of those who wish to starve plants and animals of their most essential food supply — CO2.”). But on YouTube, I did hear Ellis suggest we may be put here by “intelligent design” to burn fossil fuels to save us from an ice age. Sounded a bit off to me…. and made them seem quite biased. Hence, I wanted to hear from someone more educated that me on these concepts. Thank you so much for discussing this with me.
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Eclectic at 05:13 AM on 26 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
MA Rodger , geoengineering climate by distributing iron (as fertilizer) to pelagic ocean, has been discussed in previous years.
Tim Conway & Seth John (2014, Nature ) indicated that a large proportion of North Atlantic ocean-water iron was deriving from Saharan dust.
There has been some more casual discussion of the idea of dust from dry land similarly producing algal bloom and thus a reduction of atmospheric CO2. This climate-cooling mechanism (which I have not seen quantified) would act in opposition to the dust-albedo mechanism suggested by Ellis & Palmer (2016) .
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Jan at 02:25 AM on 26 April 2020State of the climate: First quarter of 2020 is second warmest on record
Its virtual certain that 2020 will be the warmest year with SOx emissions being significantly down. They create clouds. Sox emissions are estimated to cool the climate by at least 0.4°C. Further, it will be quite interesting to see how the methane emissions will behave this year. I just wonder what is a stronger methane emitter: an active fracking well or an inactive one? So i guess no clear answer here ;)
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MA Rodger at 23:24 PM on 25 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
Lawrence Tenkman @402,
I did manage a read-through of Ellis & Palmer (2016). I note it isn't published properly which is likely why it fails to get mentioned within the literature. (It is published here but only as an “unedited manuscript” which was to “undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form.” I see no “final form.”)
There is within Ellis & Palmer mention of “another story for another day” with the suggestion that this would add to the grand theorising with explanations of Dansgaard-Oeschger events and the mid-Pleistocene transition. A paper co-authored by Ellis has appeared on the web explaining the pre-MPT 41ky Ice Age cycle as resulting from there being an extra southern-driven version of the Ice Age cycle which post-MPT ran out of land in the post-MPT permanently-iced-over Antarctica and leaving only the northern-driven post-MPT 100ky Ice Age cycle.
I'm not sure how the pre-MPT cycles would fit in with the Ellis & Palmer theory of dusty interglacial-triggering. (The appearance of interglacials in beat with the orbital eccentricity wobble is described in this follow-on thesis as purely coincidental. The frequency is defined by the 70ky it takes to prime the system with ice.)
The absence of proper follow-on work, of publication or of citations is a kiss of death to theories such as set out by Ellis & Palmer. But that does not explain what it says or why it is wrong to say it.
Ellis & Palmer (2016) is a poor piece of work. It occasionally says some very silly things but I shall ignore those. It also gallops past the science rather than addressing it, indeed describing it as “scientific lacuna.” But I shall here ignore such hubris.
The grand theory presented explains that the precession/obliquity within the Milankivitch cycles does not always lead to an interglacial and that this is not immediately explained by CO2/albedo alone. To cause an interglacial Ellis & Palmer invoke a dusty atmosphere which reduced ice albedo and, as warming takes hold, adds to this albedo reduction when warming brings greater levels of dust to the melting ice surface.
They say the dust results from reduced CO2 which causes lower tree-lines globally and this increasing dust as plant-less dusty mountain tops grow into dusty mountains and then dusty hills with the lowered tree-line. A correlation of dust and CO2 is presented. This dust-correlation could be made with many other different factors so is effectively an exercise in curve fitting with the low-CO2>>high-dust relationship remaining speculative.
What is also not explained in all this is the mechanism driving the CO2 reduction and why this cooling doesn't keep on going. The peak-dust levels do not appear to have a threshold level and if there is a CO2/ice-volume/Milancovitch/dust mechanism at work it has yet to be convincingly demonstrated.
So without further work beyond those referenced here, work to fill in the gaps and thus enable this allegedly important theory to be properly published, it is fair to say that not a great deal has been done since the initial appearance of this work in 2015 which was then, with its parting comment “So the only evil in this world is not in the atmosphere, it lies in the hearts of those who wish to starve plants and animals of their most essential food supply — CO2. “, certainly more work concrened with denialsim than with scientific analysis.
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Eclectic at 20:12 PM on 25 April 2020Our extraordinary 50th Earth Day
Bob @5 , the other side of the coin for your question is :- What is the repayment time for renewable energy sources.
[German figures] show that windturbines repay themselves in about 6 months ~ a bit more for small turbines, but less time for the largest turbines. And PhotoVoltaic panels (commercial solar farm) repay themselves in around 1.5 to 3 years . . . in Germany's scanty sunlight !
Much of the upfront "CO2 cost" of turbines is the large amount of concrete of the tower base. But that is a one-off cost, and is not repeated as the turbine blades & shaft assembly get replaced in 15 years or so.
All this is way ahead of long-term coal or gas type power plants. So there is no present need to delay installation of these renewables. We should also add in the costings of high-voltage grid connection to solar & wind farms ~ but again, that's largely a one-off cost. Storage & batteries will need to benefit from more R&D over 30 years, too.
As RedBaron indicates, the realistic aim is not to replace all fossil fuel industrial input by the next year or two, but to transition the energy economy over the 30 years until 2050. Technically that seems possible over 30 years at moderate cost (once you deduct the dollar cost of maintaining or increasing the fossil fuel technology systems of today).
My one reservation is that the supply of jetfuel & diesel from organic-based manufacture ( e.g. vat-fermentation / algal-culture ) is around $200 per barrel, last I heard. Presumably the biochemists can improve on that, given some decades for R&D.
But on a slightly humorous note . . . the biochemists will have their work cut out for them, to match the negative cost today of a barrel of oil on the Oil Futures market [April 2020] .
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SirCharles at 19:59 PM on 25 April 2020State of the climate: First quarter of 2020 is second warmest on record
Also see => NOAA: 2020 Could Be Warmest Year on Record
Here the WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2019
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michael sweet at 19:30 PM on 25 April 2020Our extraordinary 50th Earth Day
Bob,
Your question is incorrect. We need to end fossil fuel use. If we build out a completely renewable energy system fossil energy use will be ended.
Already for many years, more energy is generated by existing renewable energy systems than is used to build out new renewable energy systems. With every solar or wind farm completed, less fossil fuels are used worldwide and less carbon dioxide is released. You are counting fossil energy used in the rest of the economy against building renewable energy systems.
The savings in less carbon dioxide emissions in the electrical sector of the economy greatly exceeds the emission of carbon dioxide in the manufacture of the steel and other components in the renewble system. It lowers carbon dioxide emissions fastest to lower electrical system emissions first. Obviously we want to remove carbon dioxide as fast as possible. Once most electricity is generated by renewable sources industrial emissions of carbon dioxide will be converted to renewable energy.
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RedBaron at 18:21 PM on 25 April 2020Our extraordinary 50th Earth Day
@5 Bob,
Why do we need to?
One of the biggest myths surounding AGW mitigation is that we must eliminate all fossil fuel use 100%. This simply isn't true. There are for example certain lubricants we get from petroleum that without it the only substiture is certain whale oils. That would be extraorinarily foolish to end oil pumping, yet start whaling again, wouldn't it?
Go back to the IPCC scenarios. You'll find RCP 2.6 completely reverses AGW without completely ending all fossil fuel use.
Climate Model: Temperature Change (RCP 2.6)
The RCP 2.6 scenario peaks mid-century, which means the radiative forcing level reaches 3.1 W/m2 but returns to 2.6 W/m2 by 2100. So somewhere around 2050 +/- we need to reach net zero emissions. That's 30 years from now. The only way to build the needed infrastructure by then is with fossil fuels actually. And RCP 2.6 is the only IPCC published scenario that actually reverses AGW before incredible harm from global warming happens.
The only known way to reach this is to reduce fossil fuel use and increase carbon sequestration such that the net result is a draw down of atmospheric CO2 levels. Thus it is the net that matters, not gross emissions.
Currently the only technology capable of sequestering large enough amounts of CO2 to reach the net negative draw down state found in RCP 2.6 is agriculture. And luckily for us, this technology is relatively cheap, relatively effective, minimal unexpected side effect risks, and universally beneficial to both human society and natural ecosystems even if AGW wasn't a thing at all. It would still be something that must be done on it's on merits!
So there is absolutely no reason to delay building renewable energy infrastructure, even using fossil fuels to build those renewables. We need to accomplish the building of them by 2050 and start draw down from then on in order to reach RCP 2.6 scenario goals.
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Bob dde V at 15:12 PM on 25 April 2020Our extraordinary 50th Earth Day
How do we get electricity from renewable sources without using fossil fuels in the building of the infrastructure?
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william5331 at 06:31 AM on 25 April 2020Our extraordinary 50th Earth Day
I wonder if the lesson will be absorbed by many of us. This C19 crisis is just a little tiddler compared to what we could experience from other more devestating diseases or from a whole lot of other things totally unrelated to disease that Giya could throw at us. Just imagine the failure of the world's grain harvest following just one year of really strange weather caused by a climate tipping point being reached.
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bjchip at 04:39 AM on 25 April 2020New measurements confirm extra heating from our carbon dioxide
Thanks for that. Link in the article needs to be fixed too though.
regards BJ
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sauerj at 01:06 AM on 25 April 2020Our extraordinary 50th Earth Day
Dear SkS Moderators, Completely off topic (sorry!): I just noticed that the x-axis of the atom bomb clock is stuck on 2013. The # of AB's is correct for 2020, but the date isn't. Any chance this could be fixed and also automatically move with the actual date? ... Thanks!
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mkrichew at 23:22 PM on 24 April 2020Milankovitch Cycles
Eclectic @58
Thank you for your question concerning higher CO2 levels at the start of glacial periods. From the ice core curves it appears that the CO2 concentration is highest just prior to the start of the downward negative slope that signals the start of a cooling glacial period.
Further, your comment about not providing any evidence for my theory mentioned above in 56 and elsewhere concerning CO2 concentrations reaching high enough levels in the upper atmosphere to trap and dissipate the sun's radiation before it can warm the lower atmosphere is correct.
I thank the moderator and others for providing some evidence, even if not always supportive of my theory.
Moderator Response:[PS] it would perhaps improve discussion if you could clarify whether you contest that:
1/ Milankovich cycles exist (this would be very hard to dispute)
2/ that the calculations for variations in radiation at TOA at 65N due to cycle are correct.
3/ that the variation in radiation (+/- 50W/m2) is insufficient to cause the change observed
or
4/ that ice age cycles do not closely correlate the cycles.
Thank you.
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Eclectic at 19:51 PM on 24 April 2020Milankovitch Cycles
Mkrichew @57 , to give you a very brief reply :-
Your final paragraph ~ what reason would you have, to think that a higher CO2 concentration means Earth entering another glacial period?
~ most glaciers were advancing during the last approx 5000 years (as Earth surface temperature gradually reduced . . . until the rapid warming of the last 150 years. (Up until 1955 date you mentioned, the available evidence was not as strong as today.)
May I point out that, so far, you have not provided any evidence to demonstrate any error in the mainstream climate science.
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mkrichew at 14:26 PM on 24 April 2020Milankovitch Cycles
To MA Rogers @55: Thank you for your kind response.
Also thank you to the moderator for the graphs of CO2 concentration at different altitudes.
I apologize that my submission came out in orange and is almost illegible. It was not when I submitted.
Concerning Milankovitch cycles, I still do not think they provide the insolation forcing that is found in past cycles at the start of warming. This was mentioned by at least one other in the comments section.
Getting back to CO2 concentrations at altitude, I would have expected them to be higher as I thought earth was entering into another glacial period. Back in 1955 I thought I was taught that most glaciers were advancing. Also, I believe there was a brave scientist who obtained ice core samples from high in the Andes mountains. I wonder what CO2 levels he found there and how they compared to other core samples taken at lower altitudes? Once again, thank you for your patience in looking at my comments. I also thank scaddenp @54, I hope I answered his query and yes I was aware where Milankovitch did his work. He must have been very clever.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:30 AM on 24 April 2020Our extraordinary 50th Earth Day
nigelj,
Tragically, the problem in America today is the same as many of the problems created by the wealthier portion of the population around the world throughout history ... the benefits of being the winners of the "impression of wealth competitions" is that most of the negative consequences are suffered by Others.
In California the air pollution got bad because the regional air mass would be stuck against the mountains for many days. But the worst air quality was in the lower areas, not up in the hills where the rich competed to live the highest. The measures to clean the air in California did not become laws until the bad smog reached up into the hills of the rich.
I still remember smelling the smog as the plane I was travellin in dropped down into the brown air mass that covered the LA area all those years ago.
And the tragedy of climate change is the combination of:
- poorer people in more developed nations suffering the pollution of fossil fuel operations and bad air quality in heavy traffic areas.
- More horrible harms done in less developed nations.
- And, worst of all, it creates negative affects for future generations.
The common denominator of all that harm is that it is not likely to be experienced by the people benefiting most from the use of fossil fuels.
The real tragedy in America is how easily people who are likely to be harmed by a certain type of leadership are easily impressed to believe that leadership is Their Saviour, and "Freedom to believe whatever they want and do as they please" is their Valhalla, Nirvana, Shangri-la, free from the bother of expanded awareness and improved understanding that many things they might like to benefit from are harmful and unacceptable, free from the imposition of that undesired learning that could be delivered through bothersome presentations of better understanding by more knowledgeable helpful people.
Those type of people certainly do not want Their Tribe's Leaders expanding awareness and improving understanding to get people to be less harmful, getting more people to understand that they need to want to help achieve and improve on the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly the climate change impact problem.
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nigelj at 09:55 AM on 24 April 2020Our extraordinary 50th Earth Day
"We wouldn’t want to be living today in the environment of a United States that has not benefited from the environmental, conservation, and pollution control efforts triggered at the start of the ’70s by then-President Richard M. Nixon and his January 1 declaration of “the environmental decade.”
You and I wouldnt, but a sizeable proportions of Americans wouldn't mind living with pollution. Trump couldn't care less about the environment, but he has his supporters so theres your proof. They are worried about their freedoms being taken away. As long as they have their semi automatics and can dump waste anywhere they are happy, even if they are choking on bad air. This idiocy is very entrenched.
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MA Rodger at 19:58 PM on 23 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
Lawrence Tenkman @402,
I do hope to get round to giving Ellis & Palmer (2016) a read through but it isn't the shortest of papers & gives the impression of not being so well set out for a quick skim-through.
On the subject of dust and Ice Ages, as much of the data which folk play with is derived from ice cores and dust is one of the things found in ice cores, it isn't too much of a leap to understand where all the dusty theorising comes from. Some other examples of dusty theorising include the likes of Alfredo Martínez-Garcia et al (2011) [described here] which proposes that iron-rich dust has a significant role in the ice age cycle and Simonsen et al (2019) [described here] who examine the local-origin dust as evidence of ice build-up in an Ice Age.
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scaddenp at 12:13 PM on 23 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
"Ellis then concludes that CO2 is too weak to threaten overheating us or runaway greenhouse effect, "
This statement. But I guess could be more nuanced. He is right that burning every piece of fossil fuel will not cause a runaway greenhouse, but "overheating" is a subjective judgement. It is certainly capable of raising average global temperatures beyond 4C.
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barry1487 at 01:02 AM on 23 April 2020Extra Warming? Coronavirus & Climate Change
woodfortrees has added some simple COVID19 data for maknig simple time series plots.
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mkrichew at 00:46 AM on 23 April 2020Milankovitch Cycles
April Milankovitch thoughts
1. What is the area of the elipse vs. the area of the circle that the earth's orbit makes?
2. What different areas does the earth's elipsoidal shape present to the sun or hemispherical shape?
3. Somewhere I read that previous to our current hundred thousand year trend for ice age cycles ( matching the eccentricity cycle ), there was a 41 thousand year cycle of ice ages ( matching the obliquity cycle ) but I did not see a reference ( which does not matter as I cannot access a library due to the pandemic ).
So, why am I asking these questions? As you may have guessed, I am not a great fan of the Milankovitch cycle theory of ice age cycles. I have my own theory which asks "Where does all this CO2 come from in the past cycles?" The Mike Krichew Theory says that it comes from the oceans. This means the oceans must have warmed. What would cause them to warm? I suggested the tail of a comet might provide the increasing insolation to slightly warm the ocean and increase the atmospheric concentration of CO2 near sea level as warming sea water gives off CO2. This increased CO2 level would warm the atmosphere slightly which would slightly warm the ocean resulting in the release of more CO2 causing more atmospheric warming etc. This might explain the lag between warming and CO2 levels that opponents to worrying about greenhouses gases are quick to point out. The rest of my theory states that at some point the CO2 levels in the upper atmosphere reach a point where they capture the suns rays up there and radiate the heat out into space. This assumes the excess energy of a CO2 molecule is disapated by electron cascading rather than molecular collisions. Having said all this, then why am I asking the questions about orbital elipse size and earth cross sectional area at various points in the spin cycle of the earth.? If I were a rich scientist, I should be releasing weather weather balloons at statistically significant points in the Pacific ocean and measuring the CO2 levels at different altitudes. Unfortunately, I lack the funding. Maybe someone has already done this? The reason I am asking the questions is that in looking at the Vostok ice core graphs or the benthic graphs, it is hard to imagine coming up with modelling equations that would match the steep slope at the start of the warming cycle. The same can be said of Milankovitch cycles. I looked into magnetic pole flips and crons were just not in the picture.
Moderator Response:[PS] This is repetition. You have not addressed MA Rodgers above. Your objections to Milankovich do not appear to be a problem with the calculations. Increasing temperature (from albedo change and feedbacks) did indeed warm ocean and cause more CO2 (which then warmed earth more including southern hemisphere ). Why go for the wierd and wonderful and ignore the observable milankovitch cycles with their easily calculatable effect?
Hansen and Sato reproduce the ice core data rather well with conventional physics. Real science doesnt have your problem.Balloon measurement of gases (including CO2) at various levels in atmosphere have been done for ages. eg here. Just google for them.
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Lawrence Tenkman at 00:44 AM on 23 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
MA Rodger & Scaddenp,
Thank you so much for your quick responses.MA Rodger, very interesting. So dust-albedo blunting has always been a proposed mechanism for glaciation escape, but perhaps at MPT, the source for the dust “dried up” so it stayed cold longer? Ellis says MPT is beyond this paper’s scope, but he has a line suggesting that elevation of the Himalayas may have influenced MPT. Ellis suggests the earth beneath dying forests as a source for dust. His theory is: forests die from combination of low temp and low CO2 (both of which lower at higher elevations). I was just curious of what you thought of the correlation he found with dust in his graphs at the end. The paper’s first page or so lays out his premise. The charts and graphs are interesting, especially the one at the end where it shows temperature & CO2 drop, followed dust formation, followed by temperature rise. I thought it looked convincing. But I lacking the knowledge most of you have, am not qualified to critique it. If you have a moment, would you mind?
Scaddenp, your response draws on knowledge that I don’t have (synchronous southern glaciation showing CO2 being driver), and thus I cannot follow. Forgive me. I'm not sure what you mean about the denial of phyiscs. I know CO2 air concentration can affect temp (greenhouse) and temp can affect CO2 air concentration (water solubility). (Is that what you were referring to?). Ellis says that going into glaciation, temp drop caused CO2 drop. He says CO2 was 190 ppm, but it got low enough to affect trees at certain elevations (where partial pressure is low enough to reach a critical level of 150-160). He has a chart showing temp and CO2 concentration at various elevations in tropical and alpine regions. So far, I’m impressed with his data, but hesitant with his conclusions (in light of other overwhelming data)… but my level of knowledge makes my critique of limited value.
My goal is to read this entire website… this happens to be just one nugget I’m trying to digest at the moment.
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scaddenp at 07:33 AM on 22 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
To my mind, this is denial of physics. You cannot change CO2 concentration without affecting the radiation at surface. Furthermore you have the problem of synchronous glaciation in Southern hemisphere which is easy enough to explain with change in CO2 being driver. Methane and isotope populations in ice bubbles also point to importance of eurasian wetland in the CO2 budget. This is not deny that dust is also important part of the feedback mechanism. I havent read paper, but is it implying that lowering CO2 is responsible for reduced vegetation? Any evidence of this in tropical regions? To me, it sounds handwavy and selective in the evidence that the hypothesis is using.
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nigelj at 06:29 AM on 22 April 2020Skeptical Science Housekeeping - April 2020
I seem to recall google prompting me with the mobile page version a few times years ago, but this has stopped. The mobile version did not seem to have the full functionality of the standard page version. I stand to be corrected might be confusing it with another website.
The standard home page is fine, because it works well on a smart phone, probably because of the three vertical columns. If people find text too small even when expanded out, Google has a text reflow option where you can increase the size of text and it flows down the page properly.
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MA Rodger at 05:03 AM on 22 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
Lawrence Tenkman @399,
While I'm not familiar with the paper you enquire about, Ellis & Palmer (2016), I note it not referenced by the likes of Willeit et al (2019) (which may be why I've not encountered it before).
On the subject of dust-driven albedo forcing, the Ice Age cycle does present one puzzle addressed by Wileit et al and that is the mid-Pleistocene transition - when Ice Ages changed from a 41ky cycle to a 100ky cycle a million years ago. My (evident) weak understanding of the literature is that a potential candidate mechanism for the MPT rests with the repeated Ice Ages scouring the high-latitude landscape back to bare rock that then reduced the source of dust during the depths of an Ice Age and thus reduced the power of the negative dust-albedo feedback, this reduced power allowing Ige Ages to last 100ky rather than 41ky.
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Lawrence Tenkman at 03:11 AM on 22 April 2020We're heading into an ice age
Ralph Ellis suggests that the warming that ends glaciation is not from CO2 greenhouse effect, but instead dust storms cancelling albedo on northern ice sheets. He proposes that the inertia of natural cycles is towards glaciation: cold orbit forcings eventually start ice sheet formation, which adds albedo, which adds cold & more ice sheets, etc. When it gets cold enough, oceans draw in CO2, and at a critical point (low enough temp & low enough CO2) rapid plant death ensures at certain elevations. This allows for erosion / dust storms, which land on ice sheets to cancel their albedo. Although the dust effect he speaks of would not have as widespread effect throughout the world, it would have a local strong effect on the ice to break the feedback process. Because the critical cold temperature may take several Milankovitch cycles to reach, his theory may explain why not all Milankovitch spike result in glaciation escape. I’m curious what experts think about his theory. (I am not an expert.) To me it seems to make sense and seems like a very disciplined paper. Maybe he uncovered the a key strong variable for escape of glaciation.
In light of his dust-albedo cancellation being a strong effect, Ellis then concludes that CO2 is too weak to threaten overheating us or runaway greenhouse effect, and we shouldn’t worry about it… afterall CO2 of 280 ppm had too weak an effect (about 3.7 W/m2?) to prevent entry into glaciation. Ellis suggested that its almost like we were put here to burn fossil fuels to prevent an ice age.
I hesitate to follow him to all of his conclusions though. For one, why the two must be mutually exclusive? If his strong local “trigger” indeed matters more for glaciation exit, why must CO2, which is cumulative, lasting, global, & rapidly rising not matter at a high enough level in our situation? I’m most concerned that temp is quickly rising despite cooling forces from solar & orbital cycles… and we’ve only begun to make CO2 at a very rapid rate.
In terms of “preventing an ice age”. Many above suggest we’ve already prevented or much delayed it. Also, many above suggest, CO2 is like a gas pedal that recoils slowly once pressed. Future generations could always press the pedal further if determined necessary for ice age avoidance thousands of years in the future. But if we determine that we’ve pressed it too far, and are now in danger… too late. Can’t draw CO2 down rapidly.
I’m no expert though… so I’d much appreciate an expert’s reflection on the significance of Ellis’s paper.
http://science.uwaterloo.ca/~mpalmer/stuff/ellis.pdf
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BaerbelW at 07:10 AM on 19 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
As Eclectic @20 mentions Patreon:
You might want to take a look at our blog post listing various climate-related crowdsourcing and -funding projects. Several of the funding projects incidentally make use of Patreon like ClimateAdam, JustHaveAThink or RealSkeptic. You'd have to check what types of projects are suitable for it as I think it's mostly for "creators" of e.g. videos and the like.
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Eclectic at 10:12 AM on 18 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
Yes, RedBaron, it's not quite the thing, fund-raising-wise.
I am not really familiar with the efficacy of the Patreon system, either.
My impression is that many of those who make serious money from "Patreon" are spending most of their time aiming at being controversial and/or right wingnut. And are not spending much time doing anything useful in a practical sense. Not your style, I'm thinking.
Still, your ideas may find fertile soil (so to speak) in 2021 with a New Administration. 'Course, that depends on which way the cat jumps in November 2020.
Good luck in persevering. You know the old saying about inspiration & perspiration.
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RedBaron at 01:29 AM on 18 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
@eclectic, I have a youtube account, but I have yet to quite master the editing part of making youtube vids. My first attempts are fairly limited to say the least.
https://www.youtube.com/user/redddbaron
However, I have a large collection of other peoples vids on the subject and I am attempting to gradually learn how to youtube.
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Eclectic at 00:37 AM on 18 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
Very kind of you, RedBaron. I like your ideas . . . but rolling out your very reddest carpet for me, would rather oblige me to contribute a four figure sum (which is somewhat more than I had in mind initially!)
Best of luck in persevering with your project !
From my own standpoint, two exceedingly long flights plus a couple of two-week isolation periods (not to mention the visa hassles and the caprices of your Glorious Leader) . . . all conspire to discourage me.
I presume it's unattractive currently, for you to go YouTube style.
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RedBaron at 00:20 AM on 18 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
Eclectic,
You may snail mail me at:
Scott Strough
6010 1/2 Post Rd
OKC, OK 73150
phone (405) 430-2277
Or just drive by and I'll show you the soils and methods for a short tour. Or do that this summer when I can load your car up with tomatoes and cucumbers! Call first so I can be sure to be there and ready.
Moderator Response:[DB] Personal contact information snipped for your protection.
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Eclectic at 00:19 AM on 18 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
A curmudgeonly correction : my memory is at fault ~ SkS actually has a PayPal donation system. Years ago, I parted company with PayPal, after identification hassles. My various on-line payments, these days, go through automated third-party systems.
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Eclectic at 23:52 PM on 17 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
Thank you, RedBaron, but I really do try to keep an ultra-low profile in cyberspace. Even from the good guys such as you. And even from SkS ~ where I would like to contribute anonymously (but even there, email address is mandated within the credit-card payment system). Same goes for several other worthy causes I would like to support anonymously ~ I will submit my named credit-card details to the automated payments systems, but not if they mandate email details as part of the deal.
For "local" charities (such as Red Cross, MSF, and similar) I simply post a personal check via snail-mail. But they never get my email address into their records.
RedBaron, unthinkable for you to publicly supply bank account details for IMT, of course. And apart from the hassle for you, you would find my (modest) personal check becomes severely depleted by banking & conversion fees.
So for you and for SkS , I recognize the efficiency of electronic fund-raising, but I am left wondering why oh why the mandatory email biz. High time surely, there was an alternative system, without the "added risk". [ Am I failing to comprehend an obvious monetary reason for email details ~ other than spam/big-data ?]
Moderators, is SkS considering adding an email-free donations system?
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RedBaron at 22:15 PM on 17 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
Eclectic,
My personal email is teamred33064@yahoo.com. You are welcome to email me there and I will give you different contact information as needed. But as far as I know, gofundme does have an anonomous capability, and while they may ask for an email, they do not publish it, nor your name.
Moderator Response:[DB] Personal contact information snipped for your protection.
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Eclectic at 21:38 PM on 17 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
RedBaron @12 ,
Happy to donate anonymously, but the fundraiser organisation is mandating the supplying of my email address. Is there a convenient way to get around that "privacy issue" roadblock?
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bjchip at 10:47 AM on 17 April 2020New measurements confirm extra heating from our carbon dioxide
Now "Nature" has put the article back behind a paywall.
If there were anything more perverse in the world than the way they attempt to make money by "owning" knowledge, I never heard of it.
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Tom Dayton at 09:54 AM on 17 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
A review of Wolfram's earlier book contains some relevant quotes about cranks, starting at the paragraph "[Some cranks] are brilliant and well-educated," and continuing nearly to the end of the review.
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RedBaron at 08:07 AM on 17 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
Experiment dot com closes down indefinitly
As some of you know, today was the day my fundraiser at experiment dot com was going to launch. Go there and check it out please.
What is the rate a new regenerative agricultural method sequesters carbon in the soil?
All went well at first. After 2 months of hard work, endorsements and peer reviews by other scientists, I was finally ready, approved and just waiting their 7 day waiting period to launch. I had even started the project as best I could without funds just to be ready and already started my lab notes and updates.
Then sadly I got this email:
Experiment Support
To:scott strough
Mon, Apr 13 at 6:44 AM
Scott,
We are making changes at Experiment today that affect your project. Experiment is going to stop launching projects for an indefinite amount of time. Starting today we will not be accepting new proposals and will not be launching any projects.
I am sorry that we are not able to support your important work at this time. If you choose another platform I am happy to port your content over to the platform of your choice, so you don't have to spend the time to do that work all over on a new platform.
If there are other ways I can be supportive of you and your project, please let me know.
Cindy
So after 2 months of hard work setting this all up, they close down. They wouldn’t say directly why, but the timing is apparently somehow indirectly related to the covid 19 pandemic and/or the financial crisis resulting. I have been told I can still run the project from there, posting results, and if it ever opens up funding in the future, I maybe can try again in their new format. But I can not raise money there now. So if you think the project is worthy please go here instead:
Click here to support Sustainable Ag Research by Scott Strough
This was an earlier ongoing fundraiser I have been using to mitigate some of the costs for the original development of the methods I am developing. That place isn't a science based platform, but it will allow me to try and fund my project.
And if you can't donate, please share this page wherever you can, facebook, twitter, your colleagues, anywhere you can think. Sharing actually might be more beneficial than actually donating.
Thanks so much.
Scott
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nigelj at 07:11 AM on 17 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Darkmoon @12, just adding to my comment at 14.
"I think you should rather protect those at risk and allow the virus to infect the young, like the authorities in Sweden and and Japan do."
The difficulty is that with the virus rampant among younger people isolating the elderly has to be done to such a high level it becomes challenging. Sweden's very significant mortality rate is evidence of this.
The great difficulty is finding an appropriate lockdown that controls the virus that doesn't also wreck the economy. However human lives are at stake and covid 19 is a serious virus with no vaccine in the near term. Of course there are uncertainties with everything we do in response to covid 19, but like with climate change "the precautionary principle" should apply.
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nigelj at 07:01 AM on 17 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Forgot the John Hopkins link. Here it is.
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nigelj at 06:51 AM on 17 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Darkmoon @12,
"For example it is highly questionable that the lockdown is actually a proper measure. Take the latest case-study of the Robert-Koch-Institut in Germany: It basically says that the ban on large events and the closure of schools was very effective (also advice on hygiene and voluntary limitation of contacts), but the following lockdown achieved very little in reducing the R-factor."
New Zealand has had quite a severe lockdown going beyond just large events etc, and for three weeks so far. Numbers of new infections have dropped dramatically since the lockdown, and nothing else really explains that trend by my observations. So the lock down seems to have worked in terms of reducing infections and deaths. I'm not aware of any study on it.
However we implemented a lock down early in the growth curve when it has the best chance of working unlike many other countries. It looks like if you leave it too late you need very long and severe lockdowns that might not achieve as much because community spread has already happened widely, like in Italy perhaps.
NZ is likely to lift its severe lockdown of one month shortly to a milder version.
"I think you should rather protect those at risk and allow the virus to infect the young, like the authorities in Sweden and and Japan do."
Perhaps we could all agree protect those at risk. Until there is a vaccine there seems little else that can be done or which makes sense.
Sweden has much less severe lock downs than elsewhere. However Sweden also has quite a high mortality rate of 10% (refer the John Hopkins data here).
However lockdowns have huge economic and social costs and health costs that have to be weighed against the virus. Quite a juggling act.
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