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Philippe Chantreau at 09:24 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
I'll ad this:
The full extension of JoeZ's reasoning goes this far: in 30-40 years, I'll be dead, so what do I care?
Nice outlook
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:21 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
What baffles me with the claim about cost is the double standard. The 2008 financial crisis cost the world economy somewhere around 15 trillions. Yet none of the major individual actors who held significant responsibility in this pathetic mix of greed, corruption, fraud and incompetence experienced serious consequences. It was largely brushed off as a somewhat unavoidable side effect of unfettered capitalism. The enormous expense incured brought zero benefit to the world at large.
Nonetheless, the truly interesting thing about this miserable fiasco is how easily it was overall absorbed. Some countries were hit harder than others, and certainly there was some suffering caused even in the developed world, but nothing coming close to the great depression. It shows that the word economy is in fact capable of enduring a blow of 15 trillion over a couple of years without worldwide effects of the truly catastrophic type. If only that gigantic pile of moolah could have been spent on something useful instead of being squandered by egotistic criminals, something like energy transition. But of course, if such an idea was proposed, with a price tag of that weight, it would draw screams peppered with all the right propaganda words.
There is something in common with the cimate disruption, however: when people who knew what they were talking about, and had done careful study of the situation rang the alarm bell on the upcoming disaster, they were dismissed by others who simply denied that anything serious would happen, although they did not know what they were talking about and had not done the work. When some clever ones decided to bank on it, they were received eagerly by all the clowns who thought that they were crazy, the same clowns who would soon beg them to buy their positions back at multiples of the initial price.
We are nowhere near a doubling of CO2 concentration, and not close to equilibrium. Even if we stopped emitting right now, there would be still significant warming to come. yet we are already at 1deg C above pre-industrial. The probability the equilibrium temp increase for doubling will be 1.5 deg could be said to be small enough to be negligible. Is there a way to short the entire world economy on the 40 years horizon?
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scaddenp at 08:58 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Death, taxes and politicians lying are facts of life. What science tells you is different. IPCC WG2 is strong science statement about likely impacts; WG3 is assessment of solutions. I'm up to be guided by those not vague hopes or political preferences.
Ok, you hear about unpopular solutions. Is it reasonable to assume that all uncertainty must in the lower range not the upper range, or that problem cant be that bad if I dont like the solutions?
Or do you look for a solution that is more palatable or compatiable with your ideology instead? (and for which there is strong consensus backing for the effectiveness).
If my actions, which improve my life (eg emitting CO2) are turning somebodies elses life into hell, then I regard it as immoral to continue. I strongly suspect that you would agree if the problems with your lifestyle impacted your local community. What makes it ok then, if it is out of sight? Caring for humanity is what makes for a great humanitarian. You admire that in Carter, why not aspire for that?
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JoeZ at 06:57 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Scaddenp,
"Surely you arent seriously suggesting that if global warming isnt hurting you, then you dont mind if the rest of world going to hell in an handbasket?" Well, now that you mention it..... Let's face it, it's human nature to worry about yourself and the people in your life- your own problems whether it's health, wealth, relationships, whatever. Worrying about the rest of the world seldom rises to the surface. And I suspect if a tornado blasted through my area, the folks on those small islands that are afraid of going under water aren't going to worry about me. Now, having said that, climate science is unlike any other science because of its vast political and economic consequences. We are seeing every day politicians talking about how many trillions they're going to spend to solve this problem when they don't in fact know the extent of the problem. So, it's just natural that many people are getting pissed off about such talk. Maybe if climate scientists- the 97%- were to tell those politicans and the media to "cool it"- no pun intended- that they should be more cautious in finding solutions- then maybe fewer people wouldn't vote for Trump, who is clearly going to win. I'm not going to vote for him because I don't like his personality- though I like some of his policies, especially foreign policies. And I don't like any Democrats either. I did like Jimmy Carter, a nuclear engineer who put solar panels on the white house. And he's a great humanitarian.
Moderator Response:[TD] If you driving a car with the accelerator pressed nearly to the floor, are headed straight at a brick wall, and are sure you will hit the wall, you should take your foot off the accelerator regardless of whether you are uncertain whether you will be going 50 mph or 80 mph when you hit it. See the response to the myth It’s Not Bad.
Your claim of cost is too gross. See the response to the myth It’s Too Hard.
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scaddenp at 06:50 AM on 24 February 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
Ah ok. Thanks for that. Understand the suggestion which makes sense.
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scaddenp at 06:07 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Joez - and what makes them think that likelihood of change is at the low end? Because that opinion is informed by scientific observation or because doing something about it is unpalatable to their politics or not what their identity group believes. Isnt that just another kind of denial? Do you expect to be respected for uninformed hopes?
Instead of cherry picking the good news, wouldnt it be a better idea to evaluate globally the effects and see what the balance is? Surely you arent seriously suggesting that if global warming isnt hurting you, then you dont mind if the rest of world going to hell in an handbasket?
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nigelj at 05:38 AM on 24 February 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
Joe Z @3, reduced conventional bank financing to the fossil fuel industry would leave them having to compete for other remaining funds which are a limited resource, thus driving up the cost of those funds, increasing the price of petrol and forcing people to consider electric cars etcetera. This is what is needed.
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JoeZ at 04:26 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
response to #7
"And the range of 1.5C to 6.0C actually indicates a consensus of understanding that increased CO2 will result in global warming." I suggest that it's wrong to think that all climate skeptics are "deniers" who don't believe the climate is warming and don't believe CO2 is a GHG. I suggest most skeptics think the liklihood of change is on the low end. They do understand that the climate is warming and that CO is a GHG. Maybe they can't provide proof that the change will be on the low end because most skeptics aren't scientists. It's just that most skeptics don't think it's anything to freak out over. This gets to the critique about the 97% thing. I wonder about the following- what percent of that 97% think climate change is pontentially catastrophic and that we must spend trillions in the short term to prevent the catastrophe? And in case you're wondering- yes- I'm one of those skeptics who KNOWS that the climate is warming because I've worked out doors as a forester in Massachusetts for 47 years and I KNOW it's warmer- and I do agree that CO2 is a GHG. But, I don't know anybody around here complaining about it. Just got a call from my wife visiting friends south of Boston. They're sitting on the porch and she said it's almost 60 F and they're enjoying it very much- no complaints that it's not -20 F.
Moderator Response:[TD] See the post in response to the myth It’s Not Bad
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JoeZ at 04:13 AM on 24 February 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
"Many fossil fuel corporations are already in debt." Sure, but many are doing great. When the debt ridden firms go under- those doing fine will buy their assetts. I doubt that J.P. Morgan and some other investment houses turning against fossil fuel industries will make much of a difference. it's a big world with lots of people with lots of money looking for investments. Whether anyone likes it or not I think fossil fuel firms will be around for some time. Especially because a lot of people still want gas for their cars, heating oil for heir homes, etc. I have an electric chainsaw- not to help save the planet but because they're really nice- very convenient for backyard kind of work. Quite and I sure got tired of pulling on the cord trying to start gas saws. But, they'll only work for only an hour or so. I'd hate to be a logger who has to cut big trees all day- because no electric chain saw will do that- so those loggers will want gas. Of course much logging today is done with big machines (feller-bunchers and skidders). I suppose they won't be happy without diesel. Oh, and I plan on buying an electric lawn mower this year- for the same reason- convenience and quite.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:39 AM on 24 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
MA Rogers @4, In addition to your comment regarding Crichton, in a speech to a US Congress Committee more than a decade ago he also 'questioned the validity of climate science' by declaring that any science that had a 400% range of results could/should be dismissed as unreliable science.
He was likely referring to the 'warming due to a doubling of CO2 being a range from 1.5C to 6.0C'. But he did not include that awareness and understanding. He just mentioned that there was something in climate science with a 400% range of results. That would only seem to indicate unreliability and would be accepted without question by someone who has little interest in learning about what is actually being discussed, especially someone who has developed beliefs of superiority relative to others that would be compromised, be corrected, by actually improving their understanding of the issue.
That acceptance without question also applies to people who liked claims made regarding the illegally obtained emails of climate scientists. They accepted the claims without question. And they still try to tease out some version of questionable comments made by climate scientists - without ever questioning anything said by the likes of Crichton that they instinctively liked, partly because one of the popular New Age Myths is that your Gut Instinct, First Impression is most likely correct about anything and everything. Investigating and thinking about things, expanding awareness and improving understanding only messes stuff up.
And the range of 1.5C to 6.0C actually indicates a consensus of understanding that increased CO2 will result in global warming. A lack of consensus that increased CO2 would result in global warming would look like a range of -5.0C to +6.0C for a doubling of CO2. Also, the range from 1.5C to 6.0C at the time showed that the science was skeptical about declaring a consensus about that aspect of the science. And the recent refinements of the range of climate sensitivity have provided more evidence of robust science and the direction of development towards a stronger consensus regarding that aspect of the science.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:12 AM on 24 February 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
JoeZ,
New investment is needed to expand the rate of fossil fuel production, and is even needed to maintain it.
And Alberta's fossil fuel export pushing leadership is very concerned that any Canadian decisions to limit new fossil fuel production investment, decisions that add costs or that simply deny the initial low-balled offering of the profiteer developer, low-balled to maximize their profit if it is accepted that way, will send a 'terrible' message to global investors.
Many fossil fuel corporations are already in debt. They have no significant internal wealth to spend on New Opportunities. And some of the traditional fossil fuels firms are transitioning away from that activity as shareholders push to stop such corporations from gambling income on new fossil fuel ventures.
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JoeZ at 00:46 AM on 24 February 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
"The study implicitly condemns the US bank’s own investment strategy and highlights growing concerns among major Wall Street institutions about the financial and reputational risks of continued funding of carbon-intensive industries, such as oil and gas." I suspect the fossil fuel industries won't have trouble finding financing and if necessary they'll set up their own banks and financial firms.
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CzarnyZajaczek at 09:33 AM on 23 February 20203 clean energy myths that can lead to a productive climate conversation
@scaddenp I have error in my comment (60), I meant that "Australia really has one of the highest electricity prices among developed countries" and I've just noticed this omission. Of course Australia is far from having highest electricity prices on the world when comparing to all countries.
Btw it seems that they had relatively high electricity prices before they started investing in intermittent renewables like solar and wind on large scale, so intermittent renewables are unlikely to be main cause of high prices.
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richieb1234 at 00:52 AM on 23 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas @20
Great stuff! The graphic from Czech Republic is especially enlightening. In a world where global warming is a reality we will all have to live with, mitigating the effects at local and regional levels will require an understanding of other factors. I plan to follow up on the links you provided.
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Eclectic at 15:57 PM on 22 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Libertador @1 , Yes I think sometimes a science-denier deliberately plays "change the goal posts" during a dialogue, as a rhetorical tactic to disconcert his opponent. Though probably more often this tactic reflects the denialist's own intellectual confusion and lack of logical thought about the consensus issue.
PatriceM @2 , and also PhilippeC : in addition there is the point that the denialists confuse & conflate the two separate facets of "consensus" :- being (A) the numerical percentage you get when you discuss/survey the expressed opinions of (climate) scientists, and (B) the numerical percentage you get [99.9%] when you look at the current state of science, as expressed in peer-reviewed scientific papers.
"B" is extremely close to 100% . . . while "A" is slightly lower, owing to some scientists being inhibited by their personal bias (bias of the rather extreme political sort and/or extremist religious beliefs).
MA Rodger @4 , You make a very good point about denialists who (quite often) throw up a Gish Gallop of "historical consensuses being wrong" as though it is a Law of Nature that any/every consensus must eventually & inevitably turn out to be completely wrong. Their arguments are mostly irrelevant to climate, and are totally illogical, but - by the sin of omission - they carefully fail to mention the vastly greater proportion of scientific consensuses which turned out to be right (as confirmed in historical retrospect).
Yet the "But Copernicus : But Galileo : etcetera" line of argument would often sound somewhat valid to the casual onlookers. I can think of only two cards to be played in reply :- That in olden times, the so-called consensus often swung back and forth on a number of occasions before settling on the true scientific conclusion: and yet that hasn't happened with the AGW climate consensus of modern decades ~ where the consensus keeps moving more and more strongly in the one direction, as the scientific evidence has continued to build up. The consensus was about 90% . . . then later 97% . . . and nowadays well over 99% , with absolutely no sign of going the other way.
The second card to play, is your point that (unlike in olden times) the "contrarians" nowadays have no valid evidence to back their "alternative theories". No evidence ~ because all their ideas have proven wrong when tested. (This point means nothing to the committed hard-core denialist . . . but it would have value, in the minds of onlookers.)
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:52 PM on 22 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas,
After quickly reviewing the comment string I have the following observation to share.
Your comment @3 was about the way that regional deforestation in Australia was affecting the regional climate. This is similar to the studies indicating that removing only a portion of the Amazon Rainforest could significantly affect the climate in that region, potentially ending the rain forest supporting climate conditions throughout the region.
However, those evaluations are 'zoomed-in' studies that are difficult to perform, like any scientific investigation of any part of the planet's integrated and complex ecosystem is. The boundary conditions of such a study are difficult to establish. Deforestation, or reforestation, in Australia affects the total global climate system, as well as affecting regional climate. And properly passing that impact out through the boundary of the study and bringing back the global return impacts through the boundary can be done by the complex global climate models, based on the model ability to reflect reality. But the global picture is probably more important to investigate than regional evaluations.
Indeed, it appears that regional climate changes in Australia are the result of deforestation in Australia plus all the other climate changing impacts of global human activity. Determining how much of the changing climate in Australia is due to the regional changes of deforestation vs. the global changes occurring is challenging, and a rather unnecessary. From a high-level holistic look, regional deforestation in Australia should be stopped because of its global impacts as well as the regional impacts.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:58 AM on 22 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark: I don't know if you are still reading this, but...
I was going to suggest Google Scholar, too.
Skeptical Science is a niche web site,specifically geared towards rebutting bad/incorrect climate myths from people that don't accept the mainstream science. There are other locations more sutaiable to general learning.
For general climate stuff, I suggest two links:
- The Discovery of Global Warming (the history of the science, that is...)
- The IPCC reports. Go to the bottom of the list and look at the first one, from 1990. It doesn't cover the current science, obviously (and it is now 30 years old!), but because it was the first it actually covers a lot more general information than recent ones. Much more suitable as a starting point.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:21 AM on 22 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Science indeed has nothing to do with the consensus, but the consensus has everything to so with science. ONce something has been researched and the results converge and agree, there is a consensus. This is a non-issue. One can wonder, if consensus is not important, why deniers keep on making the argument that there isn't one.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:19 AM on 22 February 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
scaddenp,
because of the Walker circulation and the thermocline angle between the 2 sides of the Pacific. See here and the Wiki.
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scaddenp at 07:04 AM on 22 February 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
Why would that be case? I dont follow your argument, why would cold water be rising?
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richieb1234 at 23:28 PM on 21 February 20202019 in climate science: A continued warming trend and 'bleak' research
"El Niños bring hot water up to the ocean surface where it warms the temperature of the surface air that most directly influences and interests humanity."
Wouldn't it be more accurate to say "El Niños slow down the rise of cold water to the ocean's surface?"
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MA Rodger at 21:16 PM on 21 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
There is the argument that science doesn't have anything to do with 'consensus'. In one respect, this is surely correct.
A denialist version of this comes from Michael Crichton who was described by Joe Romm as "the world’s most famous global warming denier." Crichton's defines 'consensus science' in a broad denialist polemic of 2003 'Aliens Cause Global Warming ':-
"I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled.
"Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had."
...
"If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period."Crichton goes on to set out how in science "the track record of the consensus is nothing to be proud of." So he is not denying the existence of 'consensus science'. Rather, he is actually saying is that 'consensus science' is synonimous with science being wrong, badly wrong, and this is because 'consensus science' is used to stiffle unwanted argument that turns out to be the 'correct' science. By implication Crichton is saying of AGW that it is also badly wrong and the scientific community is trying to stiffle the 'correct' science. (Note, the word 'legitimate' is probably better than 'correct' but Crichton doesn't make that point.)
To a certain level, Crichton was correct. The scientific community is trying to stiffle unwanted argument by invoking 'consensus science'.
Myself, I prefer the version of 'consensus science' defined by the idea that 'consensus' is reached when the 'science' stops. So the question becomes "Is there any actual science being carried out by the myrad of numpties who deny AGW?" We can ask "That 3% who are outside the AGW consensus: what 'science' are they actually doing?"
The argument set out by Crichton gave examples of 'consensus science' being wielded as a way of ignoring specific theories which proved to be correct - puerperal fever, pellagra, continental drift. "The examples can be multiplied endlessly. Jenner and smallpox, Pasteur and germ theory. Saccharine, margarine, repressed memory, fiber and colon cancer, hormone replacement therapy. The list of consensus errors goes on and on." So, if AGW is another example of dreadful 'consensus science' as Crichton evidently implies, where are the specific theories wielded by AGW that we are ignoring? Where is this 'legitimate' science that prevents the existence of an AGW 'consensus'. I would be happy to consider the merit fo such work. And so would many others. But I don't see any specific theories wielded by the numpties who deny AGW! Their 'legitimate' science simply doesn't exist!!And by my definition, until the numpties set out a specific theory, until there is 'legitimate' science which we can debate, we are left with nothing but AGW 'consensus'. And a climate emergency.
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Mark Thomas at 09:27 AM on 21 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Nigelj @26
Thank you, I see how your reply resonates with the moderator response to (mark Thomas @3) and Eclectic @12 response.
To attempt a paraphrase..... deforestation / land based changes is recognised in its impact on the climate through its CO2 release and uptake. Globally (Per the AR5 (AR5, SPM page 5, Figure SPM.2), deforestation is currently approx. 11% of the overall problem (moderator @ Mark Thomas @3) and that Australia, with its higher than average deforestation is approx 15% of GHG impact (nigelj @26), contribution to the greenhouse effect....
So I am hearing that the land cover change (LCC) physical impact I have been focused on is recognised as a minor contributor to increasing temperature on earth and across continents such as Australia. That I am describing a theory studied and investigated and incorperated by climate science in the equation (stating the obvious). That the impact of LCC is recognised more as an ecological issue and therein is extremely important to turn around loss of habitat and fauna. Lungs of the earth etc.
I can see more why there isnt much on LCC and its direct effect on climate, and you may find this interesting, on both sides of the debate (I use this word recognising only some people see there is a debate to be had). In other words I am discussing a fringe theory. Even an Ecology professor who is passionate about fighting climate change, gave me no reply or took no interest.
Thank you for multiple replies to information indicating why its not a primary issue, this is what I am really interested in.
BaerbelW @27 thank you for research tip to find non paywalled papers, and the link to Dougs work and his weekly research news.
I am greatful for the time everyone has taken to reply to me, and making me feel welcome.
I will sign off here on this thread as I have significant reading to do now on this subject, look forward to future dialogue.
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Philippe Chantreau at 08:09 AM on 21 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
Consensus may not occur even when plenty of knowledge has been developed, but if it does, it indeed points to knowledge that can be ascribed a high level of certainty. In the case of climate science, consensus really means convergence of results and conclusions. Agreement arises because research continues to show the same thing over and over again, until the point where it is no longer useful to re-examine some specific points. That what consensus means. It does not equate to conformism.
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PatriceM at 05:28 AM on 21 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
I think that the answer to the question is like:
Science is indeed not done by consensus. But that does not mean consensus does not occur when enough knowledge is collected and the knowledge is sound. The very emergence of consensus means that we do know enough to be sure of it. -
icowrich at 05:16 AM on 21 February 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48, 2019
The escalator gif needs a 2020 update.
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BaerbelW at 04:39 AM on 21 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas @25
Doug - who puts together the weekly research news - pointed me towards this newly published paper which might be of interest for you:
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
He mentioned that it has a somewhat different focus and is not specifically about Australia but also that it'll be the references that offer the real payload for your purposes.
Oh, and about paywalled papers: not sure if you are aware but if you search for a paper's title via scholar.google.com you often find accessible versions.
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MA Rodger at 01:59 AM on 21 February 2020Climate goes extreme!
skymccain @5,
Your numbers (as set out in the webpage you link to) are in need of correction.
The 74% increase you project is the percentage increase in the rate of CO2 increase. Your 710.3ppm by 2039 is a 74% increase in the level of CO2.
And the way you calculate the decadal rate of increase is very hit-&-miss. If you calculate that decadal rise for every start-year (so 1959-68, 1960-69, 1961-70, etc) and look for a rising trend, you don't find one. All you get is a lot of noise. The percentage rate of CO2 increase has not actually increased. It is the rate of CO2 increase that has been increasing (from 8ppm/decade 1959-68 to 24ppm/decade 2010-19). Projecting that rate of CO2 increase yields 441ppm by 2029 and 478ppm by 2039. That increase in the rate-of-CO2-increase is the equivalent of 71% in 25 years.
The BBC article from 2007 you quoted talks of all GHG emissions saying:-
"Greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 70% since 1970, and will rise by between 25% and 90% over the next 25 years under "business as usual"."
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libertador at 23:17 PM on 20 February 2020How deniers maintain the consensus gap
I really like the last comic. I really shows an often used rhetoric. Make a wrong assertion. Let the oposite side debunk it. Then you the other site is talking about irrelevant stuff.
To expose your rhetoric the opponent would have to go two steps back, which quite hardly followed in a debate.
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skymccain at 21:19 PM on 20 February 2020Climate goes extreme!
“If we don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions, heatwaves will become twelve times more likely by 2040.”
I’m noticing more and more precise predictions concerning not only heatwaves but the amount of CO2 in the troposphere. My personal research and calculations reveal, as far as I can tell, that CO2 is rising at an unpredictable rate AND the rate of increase is increasing unpredictably. The data I use comes from the Mauna Loa, Hawaii - ESRL Global Monitoring Division. I believe that we are already suffering from having reached a tipping point with CO2. Our crisis is not “coming.” It is here! Please see: Tipping points
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nigelj at 19:03 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas @25
"I am asking how the climate science community (as I have been refered to address here by Bob @21) rates the impact from broad scale deforestation on climate in Australia, thats all. And a personal reply too as I am seeking dialogue."
Deforestation globally used to account for 20% of CO2 emissions and now its about 10% of emissions (deforestation and climate change on wikipedia,) so lets say 15% long term for the sake of simplicity. This means deforestation has caused about 15% of global warming at global scale.
Australia has warmed about 1 degree c since 1900, much the same as the global average, so it looks to me like about 15% of warming in Australia (as a whole) since 1900 is due to deforestation.
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Mark Thomas at 17:58 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
BaerbelW @23
In regards to your opening line, I am trying to convey one question not many. I am not questioning ice sheet retreats, temp increase, acidification oceans, CO2 as a greenhouse gas, ice age records, ocean levels.
I am asking how the climate science community (as I have been refered to address here by Bob @21) rates the impact from broad scale deforestation on climate in Australia, thats all. And a personal reply too as I am seeking dialogue.
It is specific and it relates directly (moderator, yes?) to the post subject which is what I seek to discuss.
Yours Sincerely
Mark
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Mark Thomas at 17:42 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
BaerbelW @23
Thank you for replying.
OK i will properly delve into your links to reading and viewing material, which I can see is extensive and I am up for it.
May I have a personal reply that shows the position of the climate science community regarding the relavent percentage value of broad scale land clearing to climate change. In other words, what percentage do you think is from anthropogenic CO2/methane (re main GHG's), what percentage from land clearing in Australia?
From all my years of reading and with a solid scientific research back ground, I am currently seeing broad scale deforestation in Australia is 0.75 percentage value to our climate situation in Australia, (being fires drought increase in extreme weather etc), 0.25 percentage value anthropogenic CO2/methane and the nasty CFCs.
Being genuinely honest, and look forward to sensible dialogue.
Kind Regards
Mark
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BaerbelW at 16:25 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas @22
Many of your questions are answered in our MOOC „Denial101x - Making sense of climate science denial“ which also explains the basics of climate change science (but also, how and why it gets distorted).
It‘s available throughout the year until December 16 as a self-paced version on the edX platform: http://sks.to/denial101x
You can also just watch the videos via this list: http://sks.to/denial101xvideos where you‘ll also find links to the underlying scientific studies grouped by lecture/topic.
Hope this helps!
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Mark Thomas at 14:03 PM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Bob Loblaw @21
I am honestly describing a personal journey unfolding. I can see how it could be interpreted as insincere, or subversive but its not. This is why I use my real name. I have a bachelor of applied science, chemistry major, with a focus on enviro management of hazardous materials. I worked as a scientist for more than a decade assessing and cleaning up contaminated sites (soil and groundwater) in Australia, I have written hundreds of contaminated site reports for property development, ecological and human health risk based studies, including reviewing of contamination models. So clearly I am not a 'climate scientist'. I am here presenting myself as a citizen scientist wanting to understand more about broadscale anthropogenic impacts on the world.
I thought coming here was a place to learn a balanced view. The succession of documents I have presented, I have been finding while writing these comments . I made it clear in my first post (which is my first on a science blog site) I am sceptical about GHG as the main contributor to the understanding of climate change, and that the information I have presented regarding broadscale land clearing seems to explain the current situation to me in hand with GHG impacts. I seek knowledge on this subject. If the climate science community your refering to is aware, please share.
Your refenced document for me to read from 1979 is paywalled with a subscription, may science be free for everyone, The late great Carl Sagan I am sure would not be pleased his work is paywalled. I have endevoured to provide open source material so everyone who chooses can read.
So I ask, please engage, lets discuss, whats your opinion on this subject matter I have presented?
PS No paywalled articles.
Sincerely, Mark
Moderator Response:[DB] Research papers are often available on the web for free, as authors like to share their work. For example, the piece by Sagan is available here.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:50 AM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark: you say "...the more I see it needs to be a bigger part..."
Note that the paper you found has a list of references. Note that the earliest of those references is from 1987.
I can also point you to a paper from 1979:
Anthropogenic Albedo Changes and the Earth's Climate
Carl Sagan, Owen B. Toon, James B. Pollack
Science 21 Dec 1979:
Vol. 206, Issue 4425, pp. 1363-1368
DOI: 10.1126/science.206.4425.1363Studying changing surface effects on climate is not new. This is not something the climate science community is unaware of.
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Mark Thomas at 09:26 AM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Nigelj@19, I was thinking along very similar lines. Comparing temperatrure trend over time against deforrestation rates and global warming trend, humidity and rainfall.
Forest Hydrogeology and impacts of deforestation evidence points to big contributions to climatic change, at much more than a localised climate. Articles I have refered so far in this thread have many references within (I can if people want a list). I mean now that I think about this it comes across as common sense. When you visualise Australia, and compare pre-european invasion land cover to the current land cover ... I can see it would drive up temperature, increase arid conditions and reduce moisture. I will further support this idea with references below.
The comparison of an area deforested to forested and moisture and temperature impacts is presented in my first comment (Mark Thomas @3) which shows a regional area in Western Australia before and after measurements. Shows dramatic impact.
Regarding Australia wide...
Available for free online (woohoo!! how all science should be) at AGU100 this paper presents modelling comparions on climate in Australia pre-european and modern day conditions.
'Modeling the impact of historical land cover change on Australia's regional climate' 2007 by C. A. McAlpine J. Syktus R. C. Deo P. J. Lawrence H. A. McGowan I. G. Watterson S. R. Phinn
The report discusses in detail the modelled variability in temperature and moisture. (I am going to try to link in some figures ... this is my first time writing on a science discussion site, )
The report investigation aim (Introduction) "...The question then is ‐ is Australia's regional climate sensitive to land cover change?....."
..."However, the effect of LCC [Land Cover Change] on the Australian climate has been a secondary consideration for climate change projections, despite the clearing of over 1.2 million km2 or ∼13% of the continent since European settlement.
The regions of greatest LCC are southeast Australia (New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, cleared 1800‐mid 1900s), southwest Western Australia (1920–1980s), and more recently inland Queensland [Australian Surveying and Land Information Group (AUSLIG), 1990; Barson et al., 2000]. Nair et al. [2007], using satellite observational data, showed that replacement of half the native vegetation by croplands in southwest Western Australia resulted in a decrease of 7 Wm−2 in radiative forcing. They argue that general circulation models tend to underestimate the radiative forcing of LCC by a factor of two."
in section 3.2 discusses pre european and current forest modelling temperature trends 2002/2003 drought.
"[18] The simulated warmer and drier conditions in eastern Australia are cumulatively impacting on surface and sub‐soil moisture, and likely to be affecting vertical moisture transport processes, changing the partitioning of available water between runoff and evaporation. This has important, largely unrecognized consequences for agricultural production and already stressed land and water resources. Further, the simulated increase in temperatures in the sensitivity experiments, especially in southern Queensland and New South Wales, for the 2002/2003 drought, is consistent with the observed trend of recent droughts being warmer than previous droughts (1982, 1994) with a similar low rainfall [Nicholls, 2006]."
The report concludes
..."[19] The findings of our sensitivity experiment indicate that replacing the native woody vegetation with crops and grazing in southwest Western Australia and eastern Australia has resulted in significant changes in regional climate, with a shift to warmer and drier conditions, especially in southeast Australia, the nation's major agricultural region. The simulated changes in Australia's regional climate suggest that LCC [Land Cover Change] is likely a contributing factor to the observed trends in surface temperature and rainfall at the regional scale. While formal attribution studies are required, the outcomes raise important questions about the impact of LCC on Australia's regional climate, and highlight a strong feedback effect between LCC and the severity of recent droughts impacting on Australia's already stressed natural resources and agriculture."
Now at a global research level for Land Cover Change .....
Research paper in Science Direct, presented in the Global Environmental Change Journal, Volume 43, March 2017, Pages 51-61
Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world
".....As illustrated in Fig. 2, solar energy that might otherwise drive transpiration and evaporation remains in the local landscape as heat, raising local temperatures. This can result in dramatic changes across different land-use environments. Heatwave conditions can amplify these effects. Warmer temperatures appear to result in greater temperature differentials between forested and open-field environments, though broad-leaved species may have stronger impacts on cooling than conifers (Renaud and Rebetez, 2009, Zaitchik et al., 2006). Maintaining tree cover can reduce high temperatures and buffer some of the extremes otherwise likely to arise with climate change."
Fig. 2. Surface temperature distribution in a mixed landscape with forest.
For me, I am seeing that ecology needs to play an equal part of the conversation regarding climate change mitigation as much as CO2. The more I read about land cover changes and their impacts the more I see it needs to be a bigger part. They are not seperable. I note the following conclusion from the above reference 'Trees, forests and water: Cool insights for a hot world'.
... in section 9 "Though the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement has again turned attention to the carbon-related role of forests, the agreement likewise emphasizes that mitigation and adaptation agendas are to be handled in synergy. Much can still be done to improve implementation.
The effects of forests on water and climate at local, regional and continental scales provide a powerful adaptation tool that, if wielded successfully, also has globally-relevant climate change mitigation potential....."
Thankyou Nigelj for encouragement to do comparison trends of climate and land based conditions and potential impacts, I see how important this is to turning the tide of climate change and anthropogenic damage, I have a new project it seems :)
Moderator Response:[DB] Embedded images; shortened and activated URLs.
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nigelj at 06:07 AM on 20 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas @18, why not compare the long term trend in eastern Australias summer temperatures, where theres been a lot of long term deforestation, with a long term summer temperature trend from somewhere without significant deforestation? And without other complicating factors. There will probably be data somewhere on the net maybe the mid west of America which I think has always been grasslands.
If theres any difference in the temperature trend, it would tell you roughly how much deforestation is contributing to local temperature changes. I suspect it isn't contributing much
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Philippe Chantreau at 03:04 AM on 20 February 2020Sea level is not rising
When Duncan61 say they have measured no change, perhaps it is because they do not measure it at all. The Port Authority site has no mention that I could find of sea level monitoring.
NOAA, however, shows a trend upward of 1.71+- 0.23 mm/year. I note that this record does not go back 163 years. White et al (2014) is a really good paper, freely avilable but it was published 6 years ago and there has likely been further increase since.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825214000956
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=680-471
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Mark Thomas at 16:32 PM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Hello Eclectic @12
I hear you on the many variables and significant studies to ascertain GHG emissions from the land and land use, tonnes of good scientific studies and seems a clear understanding of related impacts. In reference to the aspects you raised, they are predominately current use and on-going use studies. I am interested specifically in direct current impact on climate from 200 years of deforestation, in particular in the last 50 years has been the most ... Our temp increases in Aust (scaddenp @15) have also kicked up at the same time... possible correlation... possible contributing factor with GHG. As you pointed out, micro climate impacts can be confidently considered. So it is it seems I am talking about something a little wider and possibly far fetched.
The CSIRO paper I referenced, summised from using IPCC model, put forward a range increase in temperature equal and possibly higher than current modelled AGW impact.
It is because Australia has removed so much forest cover, 40% (Mark Thomas @3). From the article I provided (Mark Thomas @10), is a discussion on continental impact, suggesting far more than micro or localised climate change. It quotes studies by Russian scientists that have looked at Australia's situation because, globally (I assume), we are unusual due to the massive land clearing of forests.
So I am at this time, seeing deforestation as an equal major issue to address climate change across Australia as much as CO2 (eek am I saying something wrong here?). This is a focus on Australia and not the world. Basically even if the world sorts CO2, which is happening, from what I see, we would still be in significant fire danger, accelerating ecological damage because of the massive historic land clearing.
I am going to contact CSIRO and enquire on their position on this subject presented in their ECOS publication I referenced (Mark Thomas @10).
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Eclectic at 15:52 PM on 19 February 2020Sea level is not rising
Duncan61 comments today on another thread [wildfires] :-
< "O.K. where is the sea level rising.I took it upon myself to contact Freemantle port Authority and they have measured no change in 163 years.If a lot of the ice has melted why is the sea not going up???.Is it O.K. for me to ask or is it a secret " >
Duncan, the scientific data shows a 200 mm rise in sea level at Freemantle in modern times ~ which is kind of average for worldwide sea leve rise (currently rising about 3mm per year and accelerating). The moderator indicates that you sometimes have to adjust for vertical land movement also : but that's less than 0.2 mm per year for coastal Western Australia, so quite insignificant.
Why would you think (or believe) that 100+ years of global ice melting and global ocean warming . . . would not produce an ongoing sea level rise? Even the science-denying propaganda shill who calls herself JoNova and who loves to deceive & mislead her readers . . . even she admits that the Freemantle level has risen 200mm in just over 100 years.
So it's a puzzle, Duncan, how you came to take up the ridiculous nonsense you got from the Freemantle Authority. Sounds like maybe your informant was a jokester enjoying pulling your leg . . . or he's a rabid Flat-Earther . . . or his brother is a Real Estate agent trying to clinch a big waterfront land deal. Could be all sorts of reasons for someone coming up with such rubbish, don't you think?
Freemantle sea level does fluctuate 150 mm over a decade or so, as the oceanic current is affected by the larger-scale effects of El Nino & Indian Dipole oscillations ~ but that averages out to about zero alteration to the underlying mean sea level rise coming from AGW. But I doubt it was that half-truth cherrypick which was what your misinformant was trying to trick you with.
Best just to stick with the reliable mainstream science, rather than listen to a source similar to "a guy you met at the tavern".
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duncan61 at 13:29 PM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
O.K. where is the sea rising.I took it upon myself to contact Fremantle port Authority and they have measured no change in 163 years.If a lot of the ice has melted why is the sea not going up???.Is it O.K.for me to ask or is it a secret
Moderator Response:[PS] Discussion about sealevel rise goes here. It is offtopic here. Cherry picking single points is not how science is done. More on fremantle here. More on ice sheet loss here. For glacier mass balance see here.
Thank you for taking the time to share with us. Skeptical Science is a user forum wherein the science of climate change can be discussed from the standpoint of the science itself. Ideology and politics get checked at the keyboard.
Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Philippe Chantreau at 12:42 PM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
I share your concern Eclectic, had not seen that, although one return I found had an advertisement banner at the bottom that said "Interested in being a reviewer?"
Outsourcing the review process certainly does not seem to be a good idea.
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scaddenp at 12:12 PM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
duncan61 - well that is kind of trivial to find (maybe even the "escalator" graphic on the right this page. Maybe more relevant is Australian summer temperatures.
Or for all season, all of Australia.
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Eclectic at 11:56 AM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Philippe @6 , thanks for that info about that particular journal. As I look into things, I become more aware of the problems of self-citations, and the possibilties of other manipulations of "quality" parameters. In general, I had always inclined to assess the respectabilty/reputation of a journal by the respect given by the experts in that field.
One thing which did raise my eyebrows, is that the publisher of that journal [Internat. Journal of Sustainability etc] had a portfolio of 350 journals ~ and stated that they outsourced the review process. This is a new world for me, for I had previously assumed that reputable journals were (at least in part) reputable precisely because they had very knowledgeable editors who knew the background of the journal's field and knew the appropriate experts who would best be placed to review a submitted paper.
If I can outsource my core responsibilities so easily, then I see a new career beckoning to me : Editor of a scientific journal !
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duncan61 at 11:54 AM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
O.k.can anyone tell me how much warmer the Earth is now.
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Eclectic at 11:32 AM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Mark Thomas , in my own simple understanding of things ~ deforestation has a global warming effect because woody carbon is released to raise the atmospheric CO2 level (and the replacement grasslands or cultivated fields are much lower in carbon mass . . . also, cultivated soil tends to lose some of its stored carbon, too).
OTOH, grasslands & farmland have a higher albedo, and thus some cooling effect ~ but not enough to counterbalance the CO2 effect. Then there are other complexities, such as the methane produced in rice-fields.
It would be difficult to determine whether small-region climate changes (e.g. in the Australian continent) could be brought about by deforestation. "Micro-climate" might well be cooled by evaporation from tall forests ~ but I am a touch sceptical about the evaporative difference between grassland/agri-fields and virgin land of the scrubby or semi-arid type (of which Australia has always possessed a vast amount).
Soil moisture may not be very important ~ since on dry lands the greater temperature during the day is counterbalanced by the lower temperature at night.
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scaddenp at 10:25 AM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Thanks for that clarification Mark.
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Mark Thomas at 10:12 AM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
Hello, I have searched the web site, ..... scaddenp pointed me to a information page "its not bad' unfortunately that has nothing on physical component of deforestation impact on climate.
So staying on topic regarding forest fires and why, I found this, CSIRO report from their ECOS Magazine from 2009. titled "Linking land clearing to drought and climate change' by Travis Taylor
http://www.ecosmagazine.com/?paper=EC150p16
Extract...
"Dr McAlpine’s team have used the CSIRO MARK 3 climate model – the same one used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – to simulate the climate impacts of land clearing over the past 200 years.
‘We were only looking at the effect of vegetation clearing and nothing else,’ Dr McAlpine explained. ‘Any increases in temperature had to come down to a loss of vegetation.’
The modelling results showed a strong correlation between climate and loss of vegetation from pre-European settlement levels, with an average summer temperature increase in eastern Australia of 0.4–2.0°C, and a 4–12 per cent decrease in summer rainfall......"
Please I am not being a 'denier' re seriousness of AGW, I am looking into a not so much talked about aspect impacting Australia's climate that appears very significant. Everyone knows it is a combination of aspects, its the degree of impact from each aspect I seek to know more about as kindly pointed out to me by moderator in my first comment. Because, if it is true what the CSIRO publish above, then, OMG.
I would genuinely appreciate some further reading prompts or knowledge sharing on this in regards to Australia.
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Mark Thomas at 09:27 AM on 19 February 2020Australia's wildfires: Is this the 'new normal'?
scaddenp @8,
Thankyou for clarification regarding scientific terminology and the use of adjectives. In environmental investigation reports key descriptive words, rule one: no absolutes so not to get sued :) most prevalent terms, maybe, likely, highly likely, indicates, suggests, possible, potential impact, minimal risk, potential risk.
To explain myself a little further, I am not here to contest or question anything presented on skeptical science, particularly IPCC reports! I seek knowledge to gain understanding to enjoy fruitful dialogue. I will check the thread area recommended, thank you for the tip.
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