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Albatross at 16:27 PM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Norman @94, "I think Camburn has the Texas heat and drought correct, a blocking high that does not allow rain storms into the area." Sorry but this is wrong, Camburn is referring to a block thousands of km away over the Northern Pacific. Problem is, the blocking index data do not show any hint of blocking in the vicinity of the warm SSTs there. Regarding the DTR. While I appreciate your enthusiasm and interest in crunching numbers, what you have done is just not the way to go about it, and could lead you astray. Note too that you looked at two sites in a region experiencing a significant drought. Now that affects local temperatures three ways. First, during the day the sensible heat flux is much greater than normal which causes higher than normal temperatures. Second, that also means that the latent heat flux (flux of moisture) into the boundary layer is much lower than normal. Third, on account of the drought means that cloud cover and PWV content are both reduced. As a result, over the drought area at least, the daytime highs are inflated, while the nighttime lows may not be as high as one would expect during a heat wave. So that may be what you are seeing....not I said "may be". As Muoncounter showed, the NWS has noted that the temperatures at night are still way above average allowing people little or not reprieve from the heat. With that said, there could be a major issue with the data that you are using. I compared the AccuWeather numbers with the National Weather Service (NWS) numbers for Austin and they do not agree do not agree (for third August, NWS= 106/79, Accuweather = 105/74). A little disconcerting. So those data you are using do not appear to be vetted, quality controlled official data, and appear to have errors. Now the aforementioned hypothesis may hold true for the drought area. But the data show that for most of the USA, nighttime minimums are way above average and that the number of nighttime temperature records are outpace the daytime records. So when one looks at the body of evidence it points to something unusual going on, and something that is consistent with warming pattern expected with AGW. The following paper by Zhou et al. (2010) is the definitive paper on the subject of DTR, and I suggest that you carefully read it in its entirety. It is a complex issue (hence it not being the best fingerprint), for example, you will see different climate regions respond differently to the DTR affect. -
barry1487 at 16:07 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Dale,actually there are people who deny natural warming. You see it in newspapers every day. People who believe all the warming is human caused. They are in denial that natural warming occurs in the face of evidence some warming is natural some is human.
I was going to ask you to provide cites, but Stephan already did that. Your reply:you don't have to deny past natural change to deny the current change. In one of the newspapers I read (The Age in Melbourne) on climate change articles you can see reader comments displaying the belief that the current warming is all human induced. It's quite possible that emotional headlining by the paper is responsible for this.
So what you're saying is that some ordinary punters think that recent warming (I assume you mean the last 30 - 50 years) is entirely anthropogenic in origin. That appears to be pretty much the case. A proper rendering would include caveats, but the basic, unqualified view given out by Joe Blow isn't that far off the scientific view. -
Phila at 16:03 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Dale: That's some pretty credible evidence that natural climate change does occur. An utter strawman. We all know that climate change occurs naturally. We also know that this means the climate will change when forced to do so. See if you can guess where I'm going with this. -
sailrick at 15:54 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
@ Dale "I find this an interesting comment, since wouldn't the WUWT diehards say the same thing about here (substituting relevant terms)? That is why I read and post at both sites. As I said above, I come here for an AGW slant, and I got to WUWT for a non-AGW slant." So you come to Sk Science for the science, and WUWT for ....? The fake graphs by Steve Goddard on Arctic sea ice and such? Watts and Goddard - Sea Ice http://climatecrocks.com/2010/11/24/lively-times-at-wuwt/ "Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010" "... recent post by Steve Goddard which casts doubt on the fact that we've experienced record hot temperatures over the last year, citing falling sea levels in 2010." http://www.skepticalscience.com/Climate-Cherry-Pickers-Falling-sea-levels-in-2010.html "Arctic death spiral: Naval Postgrad School’s Maslowski “projects ice-free* fall by 2016 (+/- 3 yrs)” "But in the land of make-believe, Watts and Goddard say: "Arctic ice extent and thickness nearly identical to what it was 10 years ago." June 6, 2010 http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/06/arctic-death-spiral-maslowski-ice-free-arctic-watts-goddard-wattsupwiththat/ The fervor over a meaningless paper by Spencer? "Just Put the Model Down, Roy" (Spencer) by: Barry Bickmore July 26, 2011 http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/2011/07/26/just-put-the-model-down-roy/ The faked graphs that an article by Watts and D'aleo used to make this claim? "NO WARMING TREND IN THE 351-YEAR CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE RECORD" Open Mind http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/02/15/summer-and-smoke/ They get their heads handed to them by Tamino Long story short, Anthony Watts (of Watts Up With That) and D'Aleo left out the 19th century and only used summer data, leaving out winter data, to arrive at their quackery graph. Of course summers in the period were relatively cool, while winters were relatively warm. Even for skeptics, this one takes the cake for cherry picking. there are many more examples where those came from What you see as balance, is like having to present someone who believes the moon landing was faked, everytime NASA has something to say about space research and exploration. -
Patrick 027 at 15:42 PM on 5 August 2011OA not OK part 13: Polymorphs - the son of Poseidon
CORRECTION ...the second row would be FCC if the third layer's atoms don't line up with either the first or second **layer**. -
Patrick 027 at 15:41 PM on 5 August 2011OA not OK part 13: Polymorphs - the son of Poseidon
You can see that the spheres in the bottom boxes are packed more tightly than the spheres in the top boxes. If this is refering to the sample illustration (not the calcite and aragonite), I'm not sure that's true. If I'm not mistaken, the top row is face-centered cubic (FCC). If you rotate it, you can find layers with hexagonal packing. Those would go in a repeating cycle of 3 layers - the second row would be FCC if the third layer's atoms don't line up with either the first or second row. If they line up with the first row, it's hexagonal closest packed (HCC). I think they both have the same density - if the interatomic distances are the same, which I suppose might not be the case given particulars about bonding geometry (?) for an actual substance. If you space out the atoms in each layer in the first row then I think you would get BCC... --- Sorry I know this is beside the point but I just thought it was interesting. -
Dale at 15:17 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Muoncounter, if you note the posting times, DSL posted as I was typing. I'm on a phone thus typing is slow, with an annoying auto correct at times. But since it was asked, explain the recent temp flat line in the face of exponentially rising CO2, NASA satellite data showing no increase in aerosols, and CERES satellite data showing increased IR leaving the system.Moderator Response: Please everyone, stay on topic and take discussion to a more appropriate thread. FWIW, stratospheric aerosols have been increasing, see Solomon et al. (2011): "The authors analyzed measurements from several independent sources – satellites and several types of ground instruments – and found a definitive increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000." -
muoncounter at 14:40 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Dale#36, No, I meant the illegal hacking incident that subjected scientists to a lynch-mob in the media. Only to find that independent review found no wrong-doing of any kind. Let's hope the actual criminals will be discovered this time. But there are other threads for that. "obvious that on this site it is "bad" to be skeptical of the AGW mantra." DSL#34 asked you to present your case; your response was to bug out and it is somehow turned into a criticism of SkS. -
DSL at 14:39 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Ah, the old hit and run, eh Dale? Nice technique. Do you believe in evidence-based thinking, Dale? If so, provide some for your "hide the decline" interpretation. And do it on the appropriate thread. Contrary views don't get published? Which views? Let's circumvent the official organs right here and now: you represent those views, and posters at SkS will work through them. Maybe you'll bring something valuable to the table. Who knows? If you can't represent those views, though, you shouldn't talk like you can. And, hey, there's always E&E; if your views can't get published there, it's possible that they are actually totally worthless, or at least unreadable. Ad journalem? Deservedly so. -
Dale at 14:26 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Muoncounter, since you brought it up do you mean the hacking incident that exposed manipulation of data to hide the decline and the peer review process so that contrary views don't get published? Anyways I am out of this conversation. Its obvious that on this site it is "bad" to be skeptical of the AGW mantra. Thank you all for your time.Moderator Response: Dale, please you are very confused about what "hide the decline" means. You are also ignoring the fact that none of the scientists who had their emails hacked have been found guilty of "manipulating" data-- fact eight separate investigations have not found them them guilty of the things that you are accusing them of. Moreover, Lindzen, Spencer and other "skeptics" have lengthy publication records. In other words you are simply parroting long debunked myths and fallacies. Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum. Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter. -
DSL at 14:21 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Dale: "I could raise points to support my belief, but this is not the thread for it." Do it. You could do nothing more helpful here than to present your case. That is the difference between SkS and WUWT. Here you have an open forum to present your case. You will not be shouted down unless you refuse to address counterarguments, and even then it takes a very long time (see the 2nd law thread). You will not be whipped with ad hominem and sharp rhetoric (well, Sphaerica gets a little pointy occasionally). AGW supporters here will take you seriously as long as it's clear you're not playing games. If you support AGW but present a crappy argument, other AGW supporters will point out the brown stuff. None of this is true for WUWT. The comment stream at WUWT is like a transcription of conversation at a UFO convention: everyone has been abducted, and each abducting alien is different, yet everyone believes each other's stories. -
scaddenp at 14:11 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
If all you have is blog statement, with no reference to peer-reviewed published papers, then chances are its rubbish. For a genuine scientific conflict, there are no matters of opinion. The matter gets settled by data. A conflict involves alternative models of reality. You look to where the model make different predictions from each other and see which one matches the data best. However, beware of those trying to pull the wool. If the result is valid, then it needs to stand scrutiny from science peers. This is the role of scientific publishing. The unpublished papers are either self-delusion from amateurs or downright medacity aimed at Joe Public. -
muoncounter at 13:45 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Dale#30: "At least them I see both sides of the story and can assess the truth of everything being said. " How do you do that? What do you bring to the table, so that you can 'assess the truth' of the likes of Hansen or Trenberth vs. Goddard or Watts? "isn't that what all the Murdoch News problems are about?" No, that's about breaking the law. We'll see how far the hacking investigation goes. Remember that hacking incident? "you can deny the positive argument, or you can deny the negative argument. " No again. As several folks have pointed out, it is not the arguments that are being denied. What separates skeptic from denier is denial of the facts. If there were relevant facts on the 'negative' side (something more germane than 'it's changed before'), then there would be both sides to the story. -
Dale at 13:31 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Albatross, if you don't look at all the evidence, how can you conclude it's not equal in credibility and relevance and validity? You may say I'm unskeptical and uncritical, so be it. I just don't think the climate is as sensitive as claimed. I could raise points to support my belief, but this is not the thread for it. "What is more WUWT do not present evidence, they present, for the most part, propaganda and fodder for "skeptics" and those in denial about AGW. WUWT also offers a podium for certain people who disparage, threaten and harass climate scientists. WUWT is not a genuine skeptic site, far, far from it." I find this an interesting comment, since wouldn't the WUWT diehards say the same thing about here (substituting relevant terms)? That is why I read and post at both sites. As I said above, I come here for an AGW slant, and I got to WUWT for a non-AGW slant. At least them I see both sides of the story and can assess the truth of everything being said. If anything, isn't that the intelligent thing to do rather than fall into a trap of becoming warped in your belief from a single sided message? Gee, isn't that what all the Murdoch News problems are about? Which comes back to what I originally said, you can deny the positive argument, or you can deny the negative argument. Denial sits on BOTH sides of skeptic as portrayed in the OP video. -
muoncounter at 13:22 PM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Norman#94, The NOAA Normals are based on a 30 year period; their observation of a DTR change occurred when the decade components of the 30 year period changed. Climate change, not cyclical weather phenomena. My reference to current nightly high temperatures began with the word anecdotally, as in - based on or consisting of reports or observations of usually unscientific observers; - of, relating to, or being the depiction of a scene suggesting a story . You present additional anecdotal evidence: The Dallas data link clearly shows that nightly lows are consistently well above the average. When nights are that much warmer than usual, I don't see how that's greater than normal cooling. And nowhere did I suggest that warm nights cause hot days. But this is what Austin's Emergency Management says: Extreme heat with higher than normal evening temperatures has caused the National Weather Service to issue a Heat Advisory for the Central Texas Region until Friday evening at 10pm. Peak temperatures happen between approximately 3-6pm daily. Temperatures of 105 degrees and above are expected this week. Limited nighttime cooling only serves to enhance this effect and limit the relief that people may expect in the nighttime hours. This 'blocking' seems to get a lot of play: Is it really a cause or an effect? The Weather Channel map for 4 August looks a lot like this cartoon from a weather prediction site:
This high pressure cell, which is an extension of the Bermuda-Azores high, can become fixed over the same general region for several days, especially if the jet stream is weak and with a lack of Canadian cool fronts. The air is most stable at the center of the high pressure.
Rather than dismiss this weather system with 'blocking,' look into what causes the blocking.
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Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
I have to note (compliments to John Cook, and all the contributing authors and moderators) that this site is (IMO) a complete breath of fresh air on the Intertubes. Actual consideration of evidenciary values, peer reviewed papers, and the idea that facts outweigh opinions? I've had folks point out that I was wrong, and they were correct, which I value immensely. I much prefer a fact-based discussion than the echo-chambers of the already convinced. There are already far too many of those. Priceless... -
dana1981 at 12:50 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Aside from a possible small natural component, the warming over the past several decades has been caused by humans. That's just reality, supported by a large body of physical scientific evidence. Denying a falsehood (that a substantial amount of recent warming is 'natural') is not denial. If somebody publishes a paper in some obscure journal concluding that elephants are blue, you can call that evidence, and argue that it's entirely possible that elephants are blue, because we need to consider all the evidence, including this obscure paper. It doesn't change the fact that in reality, elephants are not blue. And if you seek out evidence to support that view because you want to believe that elephants are blue, it's hard to dispute that you're in denial about the fact that elephants are not blue. -
muoncounter at 12:22 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Albatross#23: "your post at WUWT demonstrates that you are very unskeptical and uncritical of seriously flawed work that seems to support your position. " Ah, that is the beauty of 'selective skepticism.' Anything that supports your position is by definition free from all flaws; anything said by the opposite side is total bunk. What is refreshing about SkS is that you can't get away with that. -
SoundOff at 12:20 PM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Skepticism is about looking for the truth while denial is about hiding from it. -
Norman at 12:16 PM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
muoncounter @ 78 Your comment "From the OP: "the stronger the greenhouse effect, the smaller the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures." And whaddya know? Here's NOAA's assessment of the New Normal: This time around, the 30-year window for the U.S. Climate Normals is 1981-2010: the decade 1971-1980 was dropped, and 2001-2010 was added. Since the ’70s were an unusually cool decade, while 2001-2010 was the warmest ever recorded, it is not surprising that the average temperature rose for most locations. For the United States as a whole, it was not daytime highs (maximum temperatures) but overnight lows (minimum temperatures) that rose the most compared with the 1970s. --emphasis added Anecdotally, the ongoing heat emergency in Texas and Oklahoma isn't likely to be canceled anytime soon, because nighttime temperatures are stubbornly high." muoncounter, I have to disagree with your post on this topic. Where the overall nightime temps may be closer to the highs overall this is definately not the case in Texas! The available evidence does not support your position and accually shows the opposite to be true. I think Camburn has the Texas heat and drought correct, a blocking high that does not allow rain storms into the area. From Accuweather website they list the entire month of high/low temps and the normal high/low temps. I used Dallas, Texas but will also link to Austin, Texas to demonstrate that Dallas is not an exceptional condition but the same pattern persists over a large area. I started Dallas temp on July 2 (day over 100 F in the long series of such hot temps) Here are the links. Month of July and early August temperature record.Austin Texas temperature record for supporting evidence. Dallas resembles Phoenix, Dallas lattitude 32.90 Phoenix 33.43. I took the Dallas high temp and wrote down how much above normal the daytime temp was for each day from July 2, 2011 to August 3, 2011. I did likewise with the low temperature. The daytime temperature averaged 7.03 F above normal. The nightime average was 4.24 F above normal. The daytime temp was almost 3 degrees F more above normal than the nightime temps. Conclusion: Logically determined from the evidence available. The higher Dallas nightime temperatures are not the cause of the higher daytime temperatures. The higher daytime temperatures are what are causing the higher nightime temperatures. Here is another one I calculated. The average difference between the High and Low temperature in Dallas from July 2, 2011 to August 3, 2011 was 21.97 F. The normal difference between high and low temperatures in Dallas is 19.27 F. So it is obvious from the data that your inserted quote in 78 "the stronger the greenhouse effect, the smaller the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures." that the greehouse effect is not the responsible feature in Dallas heat wave. The blocking high is not allowing rain and clouds into the area so the increased solar insolation during the day is raising the overall temperatures and the nightime cooling (although greater than normal) is not enough to go down to normal. -
scaddenp at 11:41 AM on 5 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
Rapid sea level rise 10K was caused by milankovich operating on ice sheets that are now long gone. No mysteries and that forcing isnt going to change sealevel one way or the other anytime soon. Note also that rate of temperature change then was at least 10x less than current rate of change. -
Daniel Bailey at 11:31 AM on 5 August 2011Ocean Cooling Corrected, Again
I received an answer to the issues Sphaerica raised in 133 above. Per Hansen, "ocean cooling due to Antarctic ice cap melt could delay or reverse loss of sea ice for awhile" Not saying that that is definitive, mind you, but it is an interesting wrinkle to consider... -
Composer99 at 11:29 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
One thing I forgot to conclude the last comment with is that the majority of members of the contemporary skeptical movement whom I have read extensively tend to accept the scientific mainstream/consensus position on AGW. (e.g. Novella, as well as Scienceblogs' Orac, PZ Myers, and Discover Magazine blogger and astronomer Phil Plait). -
Composer99 at 11:23 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Michael Shermer has a Skeptical Manifesto in which he attempts to define the contemporary skeptical movement. The pan-Canadian skeptical blog Skeptic North has a series overviewing skepticism in its modern context. I have also heard that neurologist & notable skeptic Steven Novella (who also is involved in the Skeptic's Guide to the Universe podcast) came up with a good, short definition of modern skepticism; I have been unable to locate it to share here, however. I would summarize the definitions above as saying that the contemporary skeptic provisionally accepts or rejects claims based on the body of evidence available to support them (or lack thereof), and the logic by which the evidence is marshalled to support the claims. The modern skeptic also adjusts acceptance or rejection of claims as better evidence or logic is assembled. -
Albatross at 11:11 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Dale, "Isn't that the point of the video, look at ALL the evidence." What a very telling comment. You are naively assuming that all 'evidence' is equal in terms of credibility and relevance and validity. That is most definitely not true and not how to properly access where the science is at. That is faux balance. Next you will be insisting that medical students seriously consider the views of people who are of the belief that HIV and AIDS are not linked, or that governments should not take action on AIDs in Africa (e.g., Mugabe) b/c some people question the link between HIV and AIDS. Or mathematicians to consider that pi should be a nice round 3.0. And your post at WUWT demonstrates that you are very unskeptical and uncritical of seriously flawed work that seems to support your position. What is more WUWT do not present evidence, they present, for the most part, propaganda and fodder for "skeptics" and those in denial about AGW. WUWT also offers a podium for certain people who disparage, threaten and harass climate scientists. WUWT is not a genuine skeptic site, far, far from it. In light of some of the disparaging comments you have made at WUWT, I find your posts here disingenuous and strikingly similar to those that would be posted by a "concern troll". PS: Do you also post at BishopHill? -
Camburn at 11:10 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Moderator: I don't know where else to post this. In this link, the commentator talks about the blocking high etc. Thank you. Farm Futures commentary -
apiratelooksat50 at 10:52 AM on 5 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
DB @88 I am not sure of the difference between making a point, or advancing an agenda. If you can enlighten me, I would appreciate it. I was trying to make a point (you may inform me differently) that when reading scientific articles the wording is very important. You see people on both sides of the argument that latch on to certain papers as if they were the gospel. This paper Sean posted was full of words that in the scientific lexicon do not imply that the stated effect will happen, but merely that it is possible.Response:[DB] And no one other than you was implying that it was. Please let us return the dialogue to that of the OP.
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Camburn at 10:36 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Albatross: Apparantly NOAA now agrees with what I have been observing concerning a potential La Nina. I guess I am not the only one that is nuts. (Said with tongue in cheek) La Nina watch Back to DNT: The effects of this summer's warm night time temps are hurting corn yields. Last time this happened in this intensity was 1955. The high daytime/nightime temps will provide statistical verification over time to extent the trend. This climate year is an outlier, and hopefully will not be repeated for another 60 years. But the significance of it can not be denied. -
apiratelooksat50 at 10:31 AM on 5 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
scaddenp @ 89 Yes, I do. When modern humans began transitions from the hunter-gatherer lifestyle to agrarian societies. And, this was during a time of (compared to today) of extremely rapid SLR.Response:[DB] Actually, human agriculture and civilization emerged due to unusual climate stability:
A period nearing the end of its "natural cycle"...
C'est la vie
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Dale at 10:23 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Albatross, yes I do read both sites. As mentioned in the video, a true skeptic assess all the evidence. I fail to see how what I wrote locks me as a "denier" as all I did was paraphrase what the paper's claim. I read SkS for a AGW slant, and WUWT for a non-AGW slant. Isn't that the point of the video, look at ALL the evidence? I also read two newspapers too, one critical of AGW and the other supporting AGW. Does that make me a denier as well? IMO, anyone who only reads one source is denying that other opinions and evidence may exist. -
muoncounter at 10:10 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Albatross, Agreed. Which is why I thought it so striking that the normals moved in the direction they did. And that my local weatherman started talking about not being able to take down the heat advisory because nights weren't cooling. And here's another look at DTR. Even though repeat heat waves brought sizzling hot days, overnight temperatures broke far more records: According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), in July there were 6,106 record high minimum temperatures, and "only" 2,722 record high daytime temperatures. -
muoncounter at 10:01 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
pirate#16: "if your argument was phrased that human activities are influencing a natural cycle. " So human activities are significant enough to influence these unnamed natural cycles, but we are not significant enough to cause changes on our own? We have to be 'helper engines' at the back of a naturally moving train? This requires that these same cycles are somehow moving with the same frequency and phase as our activities: heating when we are pumping out CO2, cooling when we are putting out the aerosols. But we already know that's not true; the past climate change you are fond of citing operates on a much longer time frame than anything we could possibly do. I'm skeptical of this model. If you haven't had a look, see the Loehle and Scaffetta thread. Natural cycles run rampant there. -
Albatross at 09:52 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Muoncounter @89, Agreed. I was curious to see whether the assertion could be backed by something of substance. Now to be fair, the reduction of DTR is perhaps not the most robust AGW fingerprint, b/c it is quite sensitive to a number of factors. That has been discussed elsewhere at SkS and in the literature. But that is of little solace to the poor folks enduring nights when the minimum temperatures are hovering around +30 C. -
muoncounter at 09:44 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Albatross#86: "explain the physical mechanism by which a blocking high over the north-central Pacific is causing record high nighttime temperatures across most of the USA, and parts of Canada too." Considering that this DTR decrease appears as a result of the 'new normal' calculation, it's cause cannot be seasonal. A blocking high running for a large part of the decade? Now, that would be an anomaly indeed -- what would cause that? An effect significant enough to show up in a 10-year statistic is neither a transient nor an oscillation. -
Albatross at 09:15 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Hi Dale, Is the text below (from WUWT) written by you? Do you also post at WUWT as "Dale"? Because the quoted text is a great example of someone who is not a true/genuine skeptic, but rather of someone who is in denial about the inconvenient truths of AGW, and who is uncritically willing to believe anything that supports their position. "Dale says: July 28, 2011 at 11:24 pm This seems as good a place as any to mention this recent paper: [Albatross removed hyperlink to paper] The paper shows how current AGW models break the laws of physics (that the amount of radiation emitted is proportional to its temperature) which explains the findings of Lindzen (and now confirmed by Spencer-Braswell in this paper) that Earth’s radiation emitted is actually fluxing with temperature. The paper also slams the AGW models as they use equations which physicists use to model stars, which do not work for terrestrial bodies. Thus all the AGW models are completely useless." -
scaddenp at 09:13 AM on 5 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
Pirate, when you say agricultural revolution, I assume you mean 10k BP? -
scaddenp at 09:09 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Yep, we are suddenly adding a lot of heat on top of a milankovich-driven interglacial cycle that will last for several ten's of thousands of years. That suit you pirate? However, there is no evidence that 20 century warming is driven by milankovich cycles (a slight cooling could be expected), or any other natural cycle. All natural cycles have physical mechanisms. Invoking a natural cycle with no mechanism as an alternative to warming from a well-known mechanism doesnt make sense. It then begs the question of why you think the measurable change in radiative forcing from GHG emissions is having no effect while a natural mechanism with no known source does have an effect. Wishful thinking in my view. -
Camburn at 09:09 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Thanks Albatross: I have no desire to pollute the thread, and if I can find the description of the whys etc that I read, I will post the link to your attention. -
Camburn at 09:05 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Stephen: Cause and effect is the very high temperature of the pool of water off the PNW. This is causing a blocking high that while it shifts at times, refuses to break down. There are two areas of the world that affect climate/weather in the central US corridor. They are the PNW and the Greenland high/Icelandic Low. I should explain that the PNW refers to not only US territory, but Canadian as well. The worry that the forcasters are seeing is the blocking high finally breaking down, but the return of La Nina which will continue the dry parched conditions. This will allow summer highs to be very warm, and winter temps to be very cold. DB: My point was that people who are regular posters here have enough knowledge to understand the effects/causes etc of a blocking high. I do not mean to imply that this is not a good site. What I did mean to imply is that others have a knowledge base that should be examined, thought about, and then replied to in a civil manner. (-Snip) Thanks, my intention was not to disrupt. That is never my intention when I post.Response:[DB] Text snipped per request.
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Albatross at 08:50 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Camburn, Your talk of SSTs in the north-central Pacific in a thread about record high nighttime temperatures over the USA is OT. Please explain the physical mechanism by which a blocking high over the north-central Pacific is causing record high nighttime temperatures across most of the USA, and parts of Canada too. Referring to your link, that is the SST anomaly I was referring to, over the north-central Pacific-- your language has not been very specific or clearand the N. Pacific is huge. Now instead of making subjective assertions, how about we look at a quantitative measure of blocking? That SST anomaly may well be contributing to a blocking high aloft over the north-central Pacific or Aleutian region, however the blocking index does not support that assertion. The figure shows there certainly has not been persistent blocking in the vicinity of the SST anomaly for the last 40 days during which time the highest temperatures have been observed. But, again, what is at issue here is what is causing the huge number of nighttime records that are being broken across the USA. Now can we please get back on topic. Tks. -
Dale at 08:40 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Stephen, you don't have to deny past natural change to deny the current change. In one of the newspapers I read (The Age in Melbourne) on climate change articles you can see reader comments displaying the belief that the current warming is all human induced. It's quite possible that emotional headlining by the paper is responsible for this. -
Stephen Baines at 08:39 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
apirate Well that's easy enough. Humans (who are in fact a part of nature) are affecting the natural carbon cycle, which influences climate through natural physical mechanisms that have always acted in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Does that work ? -
apiratelooksat50 at 08:31 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
DB at 3 and Muon at 6 Since you brought it up: of course there have been cycles and of course it could be natural. You have a much better chance of swaying me to your position if your argument was phrased that human activities are influencing a natural cycle.Response:[DB] I learned long ago the futility of spitting into the wind or arguing with a mind already made up.
And the warming of the past 3-4 decades is anthropogenic in origin. If that means "natural" in your book, so be it.
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Stephen Baines at 08:24 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Camburn, the point being made is that the weather pattern you refer to cannot explain the pattern of warming nights relative to days. Also, while it could explain a persistent period of warmth and drought, what is so unusual about that setup that would cause long standing temperature and drought records to be broken? -
apiratelooksat50 at 08:22 AM on 5 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
Sean at 87 From the article you linked to, please note that key words in bold: “We don’t know whether or not water will warm enough to cause this type of phenomenon,” said Shaun Marcott, a postdoctoral researcher at Oregon State University and lead author of the report. “But it would be a serious concern if it did, and this demonstrates that melting of this type has occurred before.” If water were to warm by about 2 degrees under the ice shelves that are found along the edges of much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Marcott said, it might greatly increase the rate of melting to more than 30 feet a year. This could cause many of the ice shelves to melt in less than a century, he said, and is probably the most likely mechanism that could create such rapid changes of the ice sheet.Response:[DB] Do you have a point with this? Sean was merely relaying new info. Or are you merely advancing an agenda...?
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Stephen Baines at 08:12 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
Dale, certainly someone who denied that climate changed in the past would be in denial. Given that belief, they would also have a hard time arguing for human caused climate change in the present. That said...I actually don't know anyone who denies that climate has changed in the past - and I don't see it in the papers every day. Point me to a citation perhaps. -
Camburn at 08:08 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Daniel: feel free to delete again. No....in this battle I am not even close to being outgunned. I am talking a specific area of the world. In this specific area....I not only have my knowledge, but a host of people who sell forcasts and to keep getting paid, they have to have a good track record. The payments seperate the wheat from the chaff.Response:[DB] I understand your point. However as one who knows whom you are up against, your expertise and resources, while considerable, are still less than the mighty Albatross, that ancient mariner of yore.
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apiratelooksat50 at 08:07 AM on 5 August 2011Rising Oceans - Too Late to Turn the Tide?
Scaddenp@85 I must be misunderstanding you in your last paragraph. Can you explain what you mean. "Sorry, but I dont see anything on those graphs to support that conclusion. You get high rates during the collapse of ice sheets but they are gone. What can give you that now? (well aside from melting of the polar ice sheets but you wont do that from natural forcings as paper I pointed you earlier shows)."Response:[DB] Scaddenp refers to the SLR which occurred during the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is long gone now.
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logicman at 08:06 AM on 5 August 2011Climate Denial Video #1: The Difference between Skepticism and Denial
I deny that the audio is clear enough for most people who, like myself, have a substantial hearing problem. With my speakers in their normal position I heard " ss p gg dd cll ". With one speaker right up against my best ear I could clearly hear the busker in the street outside. Please boost the recording volume next time - and shut the window! ;-) I did like the image of the graffiti reflected in floodwater. I couldn't make out the narration, but imagined: "The only benefit from rising sea levels will be the drowning of graffiti artists." -
Camburn at 08:05 AM on 5 August 2011The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
When I came here, I had the expectation that there was a certain amount of at least rudimentary climate knowledge on this site. With that expectation in mind, the mundane characteristics of weather should have been a slam dunk. Apparantly, I was disillusioned. Moderator: Feel free to delete this post, but also understand that the condescending attitude will drive away more peple than it will attract. And a lot of us live in the real world where we observe, and use intuition derived from decades of observation. And that intuition does have predictive power. Thank you.Response:[DB] I am truly sorry you feel that way, Camburn. Because that tells me you have only skimmed the surface of what SkS has to offer those truly interested in learning. Thousands of posts and comment threads exist here on virtually any and everything related to climate science. All posts abound with links to source references. Actual working climate scientists not only read this blog daily, some contribute guest posts or participate in discussions here. One such is Albatross.
All of us live in the real world, not in the myth of the ivory towers of academia. The fact that you feel disllusioned about what this site has to offer is telling. Honestly, it is your preconceptions that are holding your understanding back, not the lack of knowledge or expertise on display here. To say only a rudimentary understanding of climate science is on display here is a stunning example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
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