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batvette at 19:17 PM on 2 July 2011Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
JMurphy, is this statement disinformation or false? "Michael Mann's conduct was examined by an internal, not independent, review board of the entity which employed him and stood to lose credibility if it were revealed he acted improperly." This is what I've been saying, it's all that I'm saying, (on that matter) and if you are going to accuse me of "purveying disinformation" please specify what about it is. -
batvette at 19:11 PM on 2 July 2011Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
"If people lose their livelihoods because we are transitioning to a more sustainable mode, should we not blame ourselves for allowing the unsustainable mode to support the growth of a long-term unsupportable population?" Thank you for (unintentionally) supporting my position and providing the only rebuttal necessary. I believe the words of one Maurice Strong convey the sentiments of those who would obviously never publicly admit them: "If we don't change, our species will not survive... ...frankly, we may get to the point where the only way of saving the world will be for industrial civilization to collapse." -
les at 18:38 PM on 2 July 2011The Planetary Greenhouse Engine Revisited
54 - Michele "Thus, the alarmists’ claims about the GW caused by CO2 seem to be physically unfounded" I'm seeing the physics words but not the physics. Do you have a link to a paper or proper analysis demonstrating your claims? There are plenty of links on this site showing how "greenhouse" gasses produce warming (e.g. the ScienceOfDoom pists) are well founded. So, equally, could you show where the errors (and thay must be very big and obvious) are? -
Rob Painting at 18:08 PM on 2 July 2011Monthly Climate Summary: May 2011
Great round-up, thanks Mike! -
Rob Painting at 18:02 PM on 2 July 2011Roy Spencer on Climate Sensitivity - Again
Ecoeng - "If I am correct, this can surely only mean that the heat content of the oceans themselves has varied considerably in the recent past, on centennial to millenial timescales, thus producing sea level change of the order of up to 1.5 m due to expansion and contraction effects alone" Well either that or most of the sea level rise came from ice loss in the northern hemisphere during the period of increased solar heating there (the Holocene Climatic Optimum). The reduced gravitational attraction adjacent to the ice sheets in the northern hemisphere would have lowered sea level there, but caused greater sea level rise in the southern hemisphere, so it was not a globally uniform phenomenon. Ocean siphoning then would have lowered sea levels again, as too would the regrowth of northern hemisphere ice, as the solar heating in the northern hemisphere cooled. See the work of Jerry Mitrovica on this topic. It's hard going though - perhaps an easier explanation is here: Why sea level is not level I briefly touched on the mid-Holocene sea level highstand in the Pacific in this post: Coral atolls and rising sea levels: That sinking feeling -
Michele at 17:36 PM on 2 July 2011The Planetary Greenhouse Engine Revisited
It is the case of pointing up some consequences that follow to the preceding simulation of the atmosphere. The CO2 affects heavily the behavior of the atmosphere but not in the way commonly claimed. It produces the arising within the Earth’s atmosphere of the tropopause and mesopause heat sinks where are collected all the forms of wasted energy which are sent to space once converted to EM radiative energy. Then the CO2 makes the atmosphere able to emit the heat which else would be continuously accumulated within it, thus producing a runaway warming. The atmosphere without CO2 would be very hot (I think it would be thermally vanished). The cooling effect occurs within the isothermal sinks because the conversion heat->EM radiation, in effect, is a phase transition because the excitation/disexcitation takes place as change of the internal molecular energy which doesn’t affect the translational molecular KE ant thus the temperature. The most important result is that the emission power is simply proportional to T^4, i.e., it is a purely intensive property, as moreover is explicitly stated by the Einstein’s relation F=1/(M0/M1-1) claiming that the photonic density is not an extensive property. We can assume whatever value for M=M0+M1, in this case the amount of CO2 present within the atmosphere, and M0/M1 will remain constant. This is also shown by the Earth’s and Venus’ temperature profiles. That means that even increasing about 4e5 times the atmospheric CO2 we don’t have any serious effect on the atmospheric temperature profile. Thus, the alarmists’ claims about the GW caused by CO2 seem to be physically unfounded and this matter would be totally upset. -
Ecoeng at 17:18 PM on 2 July 2011Roy Spencer on Climate Sensitivity - Again
Not a problem. I was expecting such queries. These findings have become ubiquitous in recent years as the precision of U/Th and 14C dating measurements on un-recrystallized fossil corals still in growth position has improved (as a result of the development of accelerator mass spectometric and laser-based plasma mass spectrometric techniques). Here is just one fairly recent example: http://eprints.jcu.edu.au/1855/ -
CBDunkerson at 16:57 PM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
dana1981 wrote: "...remember these gas turbines are just intended for peak load production to fill gaps when renewables aren't meeting demand." The SEGS facility in California is designed this way. At 354 MW it is the largest solar plant in the world (though several larger are now being built), but generates just 10% of its power output from the natural gas backups. And that's using 20+ year old technology. -
Marco at 16:51 PM on 2 July 2011Roy Spencer on Climate Sensitivity - Again
Ecoeng, could you point to the studies that show global sea levels to have been up to 1.5 m higher than the present level and fluctuate so much in the period you indicate? -
Norman at 16:22 PM on 2 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
Tom Curtis @ 169 While I was doing a google search I found this presentation. It is a precipitation study that does go back several years and it does show cycles. Maybe there are these cycles that are longer than 30 years that climatologists have not entered into their models yet. Don't know if this is one but it a elaborate presentation and does indicate longer term cycles are real (variations of PDO and ADO). Drought cycles in Western US long term showing cycles. -
Stevo at 16:18 PM on 2 July 2011Monthly Climate Summary: May 2011
No doubt some will disagree but the pattern continues and is totally in line with climate predictions. -
Norman at 16:04 PM on 2 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
Albatross @ 197 You are busy this weekend but I can demonstrate the validity of my claim that I am independent of the NIPCC report you linked to on the Tamino website. I don't clear my google searches so I checked back what words I typed to find this report on the 1000 year drought. First I was seeking information on Amazon droughts. I tried droughts in the last 100 years without luck and then I tried 1000 years but could not find any articles to show data. My next search was this "1000 year study of droughts in North America" If you google this you will see the order of files I posted. First one that came up was the British Columbia fires. On the same page was the drought article that was written by one of your friends. On my post they are in that same order as they are on the google page I brought up. I read through the articles, looked at the graphs read though some sections again to make sure I was understanding the content and then decided I could use these as a demonstration that current events are not getting more extreme when tested against a longer time frame. And most show some form of cycle that may be longer than the climate 30 year frame. -
sailrick at 16:02 PM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
cap and trade was used to reduce CFCs and sulpher oxides that cause acid rain. Didn't hurt the economy. Not having some kind of charge on carbon perpetuates the externalized costs of fossil fuels not being accounted for. -
Norman at 15:54 PM on 2 July 20112010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?
Tom Curtis @ 187 Thanks much for the links to Munich Re. I was looking around for this type of material but was unable to unlock its location. The detail that Munich Re employs to generate their graphs is impressive. On both links you posted, the 1 and 2 levels on the charts are not considered disasters. Loew & Wirtz call the first two "small and moderate loss events" the next four levels are various degrees of disaters. Munich Re lists the higher levels as catastrophes and not disasters but the meaning would be the same. The point I need to be clear on is it the events go into the graphs of increasing disasters (catastrophes) or are left out. It is necessary to know this for the point I am trying to make about earthquake disasters and weather related disaters (and the variable of population and monetary wealth). There is a question I have for you. In the Munich Re report you linked to, there is a graph of the aggregated disaters from 1980 to 2005 for each country: Same Munich Re report you already linked to. Topic I am wondering about. The USA and Chile have the highest aggregate disaster count at over 651 followed by many other developed Nations (Europe, Canada, Australia, expanding economies of India and China). Then you look at Africa and only South Africa is in the higher bands. Most of African countries have less than 50 reported disasters in 15 years. The strange thing about all this is US 30 year trend in deaths from natural weather related natural disasters is 575. US 30-year average death rate from weather related disasters. But you read this IPCC material on Africa and it states that Africa has the highest percentage of death from natural disaters...60% of the total 123,000 people killed each year by natural disasters, which would be 73,800 Africans die from natural disasters. Report stating the percentage of Africans killed in natural disasters. So many more than the US but US shows a much higher number of aggregate disasters. Africa does have severe weather, even tornadoes, but they have droughts and floods like the other countries. It makes me believe that the Munich Re reporting is based more on financial concerns than on human life for their reporting, but it gives a misleading view of disasters. Which could also be the reason disaster rate is rising. Americans have become more wealthy in the last few decades (or deeper in debt) and smaller storm events of hail or smaller tornadoes could reach the $50 million mark and be classified as a disaster on their chart. I looked back at your post 116 on the thread "Linking Extreme Weather and Global Warming" where you posted the Munich Re Graph. I guess the graph shows about a 55%increase in 25 years in number of disasters (about 400 in 1980 to 900 in 2005, and annual rate of 2.2%) Here is a link on the yearly rise in home prices. National average was 2.3% but some areas were at 3% and more. A yearly rise of 2.3 in a home's value (not to mention the items in the house) will get you a 57.5% increase in value in 25 years. The value of property rose at a faster rate than the disaster rate. But the biggest thing is there incremental choices they picked for determining a disaster. From 1980 it was $25 million. In 1990 it was $40 million. In 2005 it was $50 million. The overall rate of determining a disater rose 50% in 25 year or at a rate of 2% a year. From 1990 to 2005 the rate of increase would only be 1.3% a year. The criteria to become a disaster was rising at a much slower rate than property values. The logic here is that events that did not count as disasters, because they did not cause enough damage, but were close, suddenly became disasters as the property values rose past the trigger mechanism. This logic explains the high rate of disasters for the US, and other advanced systems with much higher property values. It also shows that the Munich Re graph would be valuable as an insurance tool but may bear no reflection on the actual state of climate change or more dangerous weather events. US home price rate increase. Also your chart is a global one. The property values in China and India have gone up in the last 15 years. What the data may be showing you is a reflection of inflation in the growth rate. You would have to admit it would be the most valuable type of data for an insurance company. There bigger concern would be the financial cost of a disaster. Since -
sailrick at 15:18 PM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
Off topic, but I thought you might want to know that when I try to share this article on Facebook, instead of a line or two from the article, it shows the summary of the book "Climate Change Denial: Head in the Sand". This has happened twice. -
actually thoughtful at 15:07 PM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
Camburn you seem to be short on the concept here. Let's take it bit by bit. You sell 100 thingies (made of pure energy) that cost $100 to make. But a cap and dividend program means your costs go up by 10% (and, even though many Canadians make use of solar and wind, you are in the "Camburn vortex", so are not able to). So know you sell for $110. If your pure energy product is perceived by your customers to be essential, with no substitutions, then your customers will fork over the $110. If they can trade to a cheaper product, they will. So now the gov'ment has $1,000 that they distribute to 100 people (but not identical to your customers). So some people, who don't use Camburn's 100% energy thingy, get a windfall of $10. Those who use a lot of your energy product pay a premium for their desire/need of the 100% energy thingy. Now - under BAU (business as usual) they are paying $100. Under the 10% carbon tax on scenario they are paying $110. Under which scenario do you think your company is more likely to innovate a non-carbon energy source for the pure energy product? Under which scenario is your customer more likely to find a way to rely on your pure energy product less? Which scenario is better for man's continued survival on earth with a very large population? -
adelady at 14:43 PM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
sorry camburn, shortened the quote too much, left out the 1970s car reference. I might add that the car I drove during the 70s was a very cute 40mpg mini - but I caught the bus to work. As for tech progress, my current car weighs the same as several minis, is 6 rather than 4 cylinders - and I get the same consumption on country driving. Not so wonderful in the city or pulling a trailer. -
dana1981 at 14:06 PM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
No Camburn, you're a year behind the times. And please take the time to learn about the BC carbon tax before commenting on it. -
actually thoughtful at 13:45 PM on 2 July 2011Throwing Down The Gauntlet
Pete Dunkelberg, I appreciate you are talking to rational people, so you can your very true, simple statement. My statement was an attempt to stop the Camburns, Ken Lamberts RSVPs, Humanity Rules, Normans, BobJs, etc., etc., from focusing on this TINY little issue or that, and to admit, on balance, looking at the totality - that we need to take action. That action should be both personal as well as at the whole-economy level - ie both micro and macro economics. -
Ecoeng at 13:26 PM on 2 July 2011Roy Spencer on Climate Sensitivity - Again
One fact which continues to fascinate me is that geomorphologists and paleaclimatologists etc., have long known that even in the Holocene i.e. the last 10,000 years, global sea levels have been up to as high as ~1.5 m above the present level for periods up to not only thousands of years but in addition have gone up and down again not once but at least three times! This is over a period stretching from about 7500 years ago up to about 3000 years ago. Yet we can point to neither orbital/precessional/obliquity effects (aka Milankovitch Effects) nor to episodic elevated CO2 or methane levels as likely drivers of those significant sea level changes. Note the rates of sea level shift involved have been typically about 1 – 2 mm/year over centennial to millenial timescales i.e. similar to what we see at present. I am happy to be corrected on this, but I also cannot recall any published evidence for major oscillations in the global polar/glacier ice inventory which suggests episodic Holocene melt water magnitudes have ever been significant enough (i.e. in the last 10,000 years) to cause 3 separate episodes of high seal level stands of the order of 1.5 m above present. If I am correct, this can surely only mean that the heat content of the oceans themselves has varied considerably in the recent past, on centennial to millenial timescales, thus producing sea level change of the order of up to 1.5 m due to expansion and contraction effects alone. Further, this suggests to me that perhaps both Roy Spencer’s simple model and the various AOGCMs may all be invalid (in respect of global oceanic heat contents) because they either cannot, or have not, been run, out to sufficiently long timescales to allow validation against simply the known sea level record of the relatively recent past? -
dana1981 at 13:01 PM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD - remember these gas turbines are just intended for peak load production to fill gaps when renewables aren't meeting demand. I think it's a good intermittency solution. As for transporting biofuels, well there's the same energy issue with coal and even nuclear to a lesser degree. Carbon accounting depends on the source crop. It's a technology still in the relatively early stages of development. As for natural gas, sure it's still a fossil fuel, but better than coal if we need it as a stopgap while biofuels are being developed. Especially since it's just providing peak load, not baseload power (less required). -
Camburn at 12:56 PM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
Dana: Why tax at all? Have you not noticed that co2 emmissions have dropped in the US. Yes, the economy is slow, but the biggest reason is that people are responding to higher energ costs. Do you forsee energy costs dropping in the near future? -
Camburn at 12:53 PM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
actually thoughtful: I own my business.....can't get any closer to work. I walk out the door and it is there. There is no bus transport. Sparse population......a bus would produce wayyyyyyy more co2 than present transportation infrastructure. I have a friend that has a hybrid. Seems the cold weather reallllllly plays havoc with it. It runs on engine after approx 7 miles when it is cold here. For each drop in temp under 32 the thing really goes south. So, not practical with current teck. The Nissan Leaf would suffer the same fate. The nearest town with population densisity is 80 miles one way. Might get by in summer, wouldn't make it one way in winter. And we do have to go in the winter at times. Dana: That is a redistribution tax and essentially wouldn't work because. I use a lot of energy....a lot. I would pay a lot more for that energy. I would have to pass the cost to the consumer.....just no way around it. Even a 10 cent rise in fuel costs results in higher end prices. A higher elec cost would result in higher end prices. The basic consumer would pay much more than the paltry refund he/she would get in higher costs. I can tell you that with the escalating costs of energy at present, which I do not see going down, people will continue to seek ways to reduce the consumption of energy. Remember also, those of us that live further north have limitied options. Solar won't work here, it has been tried. Not even close to being cost effective. Micro scale wind has been tried, doesn't pan out. Even tho I live in an area 5 wind production, when it is cold the wind dies, and when it is hot the wind dies. We call this the summer time blues: Summer time blues Same thing happens in the winter time. So BC subsidized the carbon tax. Why am I not surprised? Must be a negative administration cost up there. I do hear the British Columbians do work cheap tho. -
actually thoughtful at 12:32 PM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
Camburn - your options for replacing your car are (among many others): bus or public transport walk ride a bike move closer to work Hybrid Nissan Leaf I don't understand the claim that "nothing can be done" - many of us are, including using solar to heat our homes or power our devices (this, apparently in daring direct opposition to the all-powerful IPCC) -
dana1981 at 12:05 PM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
Camburn - the carbon tax wouldn't just be returned exactly as collected. That would make no sense. It would be returned equally to everyone such that those who emit less and are taxed less would actually come out ahead. As for inefficiency, British Columbia actually returned more tax money than collected, so they've disproven your claim. -
Pete Dunkelberg at 11:40 AM on 2 July 2011Throwing Down The Gauntlet
“The body of evidence in climate science demands a mitigation response.” That jargon makes little sense to many people. Can you say "Burning carbon is causing a host of problems.... The logical conclusion is Stop burning carbon!" Eric (Gothic) Since you're into black paint, why not build yourself a hotbox or two (after De Saussure)? You could tell us how they work for both cooking and hot water. Here is another level of engagement. -
Patrick 027 at 11:35 AM on 2 July 2011The Planetary Greenhouse Engine Revisited
That article again: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3829.1 "The HAMMONIA Chemistry Climate Model: Sensitivity of the Mesopause Region to the 11-Year Solar Cycle and CO2 Doubling" Schmidt et al. -
Patrick 027 at 11:33 AM on 2 July 2011The Planetary Greenhouse Engine Revisited
... Actually, I need to review just how good a radiative equilibrium fits the global average upper atmosphere. The point that a 1-dimension column can reach radiative equilibrium or will only be perturbed from that by diffusion at very high levels (or if chemical latent heat release involves very slow reaction rates?) is still important - that spontaneous convection doesn't occur above the tropopause in particular, and the lapse rates are shaped by the distribution of solar heating combined with the need to balance that with net LW cooling. But earlier I wrote that very small fluxes can be important to the upper layers. And a heat pump can pump a greater heat flux than the work input. So what is the work input from the troposphere that goes into the upper atmosphere? PS regionally/seasonally, their is sinking at higher winter latitudes, and rising motion in the summer high latitude mesosphere - the later produces the cold spot at the mesopause there. Sinking in the winter polar stratosphere, particularly in the mid-stratosphere (but not near the stratopause) may still be thermally direct (?) if the rising motion is in the tropics, depending on height and hemisphere. (but it is still forced motion); however, sinking in midlatitudes, or high latitudes at the tropopause, is thermally indirect relative to rising motion near the equatorial tropopause (but now I'm not sure if there is sinking motion in the midlatitudes ? - sorry I'm a bit rusty there. See textbooks, etc.). The coldest part of the atmosphere is the *summer* polar mesopause; other cold spots are the equatorial tropopause, and the mid-stratospheric winter polar region, which is still warmer than it would be without the sinking motion forced to occur there (see Holton, "An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology", ch 12). I suspect the changes in APE (in the form of temperature anomalies produced by forced motions) produced by the forced circulation are generally balanced by the radiative disequilibrium associated with them - the net LW cooling or heating will tend to destroy those APE changes. But so far as I know, a global annual average of radiative fluxes might still be nearly in balance above the tropopause, until you get to where diffusion becomes important. I'll have to go back to that fig. 10 in that article I cited above to see if it is for a global average. If so, it indicates radiative equilibrium at least in the lower mesosphere. -
Camburn at 11:19 AM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
The economics of a $30.00 per ton co2 tax in the USA do not work. To tax co2, and then give the tax generated back to whom you collected it from is not cost efficient. But then, most government programs are not cost effiecient. When it comes to energy, economics will drive it as it has done in the past. I use invertors on motors to cut consumption by over 55% in some cases. Other folks in the same business do the same. We have all insulated our structures that require heat in the winter to reduce the heating bill. Up north where I live, a high heating bill will drive you out of business. A carbon tax will never pass in the USA because of the ineffienciency of returning taxed monies. The USA will continue to advance in carbon reduction because of economic pressures. -
Margaret Morgan at 11:05 AM on 2 July 2011OA not OK part 1
I really appreciate that you're providing a primer on the chemistry of ocean acidification. It is sorely misunderstood by most people, and I'm glad to have this resource to direct folks to. -
Camburn at 11:05 AM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
adelady: You must be driving a tank. Over here average fuel economy is in excess of 24mpg. That still costs a lot of money per mile to drive. Over here is the USA. -
adelady at 10:29 AM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
Rosco "...anyone who thinks they are going to persuade people to voluntarily give up their cars is nuts." Should we rephrase that as "give up using their internal combustion, 15mpg cars"? A well-designed well-run city or suburb can provide good public transport for much workaday travel. Electric cars, hybrid cars, efficient cars can fill any needs not met by public transport. Nobody has to give up anything (or anything much). We just need to be better at providing the most effective, efficient means of meeting travel needs. -
Camburn at 10:27 AM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
Rosco: I will disagree with you about a car. I would give ours up in a heartbeat if there was any way it could be done. -
BBD at 10:05 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Tom Curtis #88 I'm sorry, I meant to respond earlier:So, given that, what are the geopolitical risks of the widespread adoption of nuclear power in the third world?
What are the geopolitical risks of population growth in the developing world if unchecked by a fall in child mortality? Which we get, basically, through electrification and urbanisation? I'm not trying to over-simplify the problems here. That's the point. Now I really, really am going to bed ;-) -
adelady at 10:04 AM on 2 July 2011Naomi Oreskes' study on consensus was flawed
Dellewho "Would a scientist who does not believe in the Climate Change/Global Warming orthodoxy use their terminology?" Absolutely. My casual reading suggests that contrarians are much more likely to use these specific words. Scientists generally tend to use wording specific to the topic they're working on. This may or may not include such terms. It's the contrarians who consistently use these general terms within the paper itself even when the very specific physical, chemical or biological process in question doesn't necessarily require it. (Of course this says nothing about how journals categorise papers - and, therefore, how writers submitting papers are expected to include appropriate search and reference terms.) -
Rosco at 10:04 AM on 2 July 2011Google It - Clean Energy is Good for the Economy
I firmly believe in pollution reduction - prosecuting polluters was my job. I think every vehicle manufactured should run on LPG gas not petrol - the reductions in emissions is immediate. Similarly gas fired electricity emits way less CO2. These short term solutions are readily available today, and they will help. China and India are not going to stop burning coal until they can see an alternative. Even the IPCC do not have much faith in solar or wind with their energy report advocating burning biomass as the most likely means of meeting the world's energy demand. Using gas in the short term can help "keep the fires burning" until better technology is developed. My brother said to me in the 70s that anyone who thinks they are going to presuade people to voluntarily give up their cars is nuts. Forty years on and I challenge anyone to dispute his belief so lets reduce emissions immediately while planning for the future - there is enough gas reserves to keep going for ages. Of course this will be seen as heretical and rejected and the status quo remain unchanged - I repeat - I see little evidence of people changing their behaviour no matter what they say and I see little future for dictatorships trying to force behaviour on educated populaces. -
BBD at 09:56 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
michael sweetHow could a reactor be kept from meltdown in a situation like currently exists in Libia? In Japan, even one of the reactors that was not critical when the tsuanmi hit melted down, not to mention the fuel storage pools.
Some of what you say confuses me, but Fukushima 1 was 40 years old and badly designed. And it still worked fine until hit by a massive earthquake and inundated by the consequent tsunami. Things have moved on since the 1970s. Now I really am going to bed. -
Dave123 at 09:52 AM on 2 July 2011Roy Spencer on Climate Sensitivity - Again
Thanks Tom -
Dellewho at 09:49 AM on 2 July 2011Naomi Oreskes' study on consensus was flawed
I think thingadonta has it right. I worked at ISI and delivered the first electronic version of the database that Oreskes used. Understanding how the indexers created the data that was searched I see the flaw in her thesis. She searched with the term "Climate Change" as though that would provide an exhaustive search of the scientific literature. I believe that the indexers would select that term for a keyword or mention it in an abstract only on articles that used the term. To me this provides an enormous bias. Would a scientist who does not believe in the Climate Change/Global Warming orthodoxy use their terminology? I believe that what she retrieved was a group who as thingadonta suggests use the term to ensure publication and funding. Their publication may not have anything to do with a proof or even discussion of the role of anthropogenic CO2 in any change in average temperature much less climate change. So what is it that Oreskes proved? That climate is changing? That average world temperature increased? That some biological event can be explained to some degree by an 1.4 degree rise in average world temperature? The important questions is the contribution of anthropogenic CO2 to any warming. What portion of her retrieved set of publications demonstrated proof of a dominant or even significant contribution? Climate change is certainly a tautology. Climate has always and will always change.Response:[DB] "Climate has always and will always change."
I can understand why someone would think that. Many others have expressed similar sentiments before. Of those, those who have taken the time to actually study the science of climate change now would disagree with you.
Please see Climate's changed before and learn why.
-
BBD at 09:48 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Tom Curtis Are you perhaps a little anti-nuclear? Dr Hansen asks President Obama:However, it would be exceedingly dangerous to make the presumption today that we will soon have all-renewable electric power. Also it would be inappropriate to impose a similar presumption on China and India.
This is good advice. Hansen has previously posed the question:However, the greatest threat to the planet may be the potential gap between that presumption (100% “soft” energy) and reality, with the gap filled by continued use of coal-fired power.
Why do you think he is so concerned about energy policy predicated on the dominance of renewables? Late here, so back tomorrow. -
michael sweet at 09:44 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD @85, The recent experience in Japan shows that if a nuclear plant is isolated from the grid for as little as 5-7 days it can melt down. How difficult would it be for a determined group of terrorists to cut off a nuclear plant from the grid for a week, and keep out supplemental fuel so the cooling pumps shut down? If a HVDC transmission line gets taken out the only problem is lack of electricity at the destination. That can be fixed much more easily that a melt down in a reactor. How could a reactor be kept from meltdown in a situation like currently exists in Libia? In Japan, even one of the reactors that was not critical when the tsuanmi hit melted down, not to mention the fuel storage pools. I used to be agnostic about nuclear, but the demonstration of how easy it is for a nuclear plant to lose cooling was shocking for me. -
BBD at 09:38 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
Natural gas is of course a fossil fuel. What interests me is the full carbon accounting for biomass, which is low energy density/high volume. - Very large volumes of biomass have to be collected (energy intensive) - Huge volumes of biomass must be transported to GT plant sites (energy intensive) EROEI? Because biofuels -
Tom Curtis at 09:37 AM on 2 July 2011Roy Spencer on Climate Sensitivity - Again
Dave123, energy stored by photosynthesis is stored as chemical energy, then released as low grade heat into the environment when that stored energy is used as food. The storage is only for a short time (<1 year) on average. Because the amount released is approximately equal to the amount stored, it makes no difference to the overall budget. A very small amount of the stored energy is not released because it is gets incorporated into sediments in low oxygen environments. The lack of oxygen prevents decay, and hence the release of the energy. Overtime, and given the right conditions, that energy eventually gets turned into fossil fuels. However, given that humans are using fossil fuels at very much above the replacement rate, it follows that energy released from ancient photosynthetic storage is currently much greater than energy lost through fossilization of current photosynthetic storage. As the energy released by burning fossil fuels is inconsequential in terms of the total global energy budget, the much smaller amount lost by fossilization is certainly also inconsequential. -
WheelsOC at 09:37 AM on 2 July 2011Roy Spencer on Climate Sensitivity - Again
It seems Dr. Spencer has found a hobby in making utterly terrible "models" of the climate system lately. And the funny part is that these blunders are exactly consistent with his past criticism of climate modelling:The modelers will claim that their models can explain the major changes in global average temperatures over the 20th Century. While there is some truth to that, it is (1) not likely that theirs is a unique explanation, and (2) this is not an actual prediction since the answer (the actual temperature measurements) were known beforehand. If instead the modelers were NOT allowed to see the temperature changes over the 20th Century, and then were asked to produce a ‘hindcast’ of global temperatures, then this would have been a valid prediction. But instead, years of considerable trial-and-error work has gone into getting the climate models to reproduce the 20th Century temperature history, which was already known to the modelers. Some of us would call this just as much an exercise in statistical ‘curve-fitting’ as it is ‘climate model improvement’.
So really he's only making models exactly the way he thinks they're made, by curve-fitting instead of physics, years after criticizing everyone else for allegedly doing it that way. He's both: - Consistent, because he's following the imaginary modelling procedure he outlined a couple of years ago on his blog. - Inconsistent, for whining about how wrong the models are and then turning to these same methods to seemingly prove his side of the climate manufactroversy. Tamino calls curve-fitting without physics "mathturbation." It's strange how I rarely see the "skeptics" criticizing this kind of shallow effort. Where's the Climate Auditor? -
Tom Curtis at 09:28 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD @85, it is also "impossible to secure" an international network of transported nuclear fuel and waste. So, given that, what are the geopolitical risks of the widespread adoption of nuclear power in the third world? -
Dave123 at 09:24 AM on 2 July 2011Roy Spencer on Climate Sensitivity - Again
Reading Trenberth and Fasulo (2011) I find myself playing catch up. My first question is whether photosynthesis is accounted for in the global energy balance. Trenberth's graph doesn't break this out, and maybe it's buried in the earlier literature. But I wouldn't on reading the chart and the accompanying text assume that the latent heat stored by photosynthesis is included. Of course, the amount could be trivial compared to the overall budget. In doing some research I've seen that claimed. According to wikipeida cyanobacteria in the ocean account for 20-30% of the photosynthetic energy at 450 TW. Using the conservative 30% (to minimize total photosynthetic energy) and 5.1E14 square meters for the earth's surface area I get nearly 3 w/m2. That seems a reasonaby large chunk given a defect error of 0.9 w/m2, and a surface absorption of 116 w/m2 according to Trenberth. My second concern to this is that I think the defect of 0.9 w/m2 has reasonably large error bars (1sd=0.5 w/m2) compared with the total budget. A 10% variation on the photosynthesis budget is a good fraction of 1 sd on the energy defect. Do cyanobacteria photosynthesie more in warmer oceans? Is there a CO2 driven increase that needs to be factored in (probably not but worth checking?) Comments? -
Tom Curtis at 09:19 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
BBD @77, it was late and I was tired, so I did not go through all the links, nor comment on any but the one post. That post contained some good advise by Hansen, and a stack of numbers use to build up emotional weight, but no analysis. Without analysis of the equivalent production commitments of continuing the current energy mix, or switching to a primary nuclear economy, the numbers cannot be analysis. They can only be an appeal to emotion as a substitute for analysis. So, how do you show the numbers to be just an appeal to emotion? By benchmarking the numbers against our current commitment in construction if we make no switch in the energy mix. Turns out, by a rough measure, the construction commitments are the same. DBDunkerson took a different rout to make the same point. Your numbers were stacked high to deflect thought rather than to aid it. The correct response it to put the discussion into terms of the proportion of world economic resources needed to make the switch, vs those for a switch to nuclear, vs continuing the current energy mix. With cited sources from the peer reviewed literature or other credible bodies. Instead you choose to dismiss our responses because we did not respond to other points you made. Well, all in good time, but your apparent inability to defend your stack of high numbers suggests that actual analysis would not bear out their visceral impression. -
dana1981 at 09:05 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
I also haven't yet seen any discussion of gas turbines, which can provide peak demand power and burn either biofuel or natural gas at relatively low cost. I think that's a key component which seems to be missing, at least from bravenewclimate. -
BBD at 08:37 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
jMurphyAnd how much damage would those "idiots" cause in a nuclear power station ?
I take your point, but what about mine: - It is impossible to secure an intercontinental network of HVDC interconnectors - It is impossible to secure a nuclear power station, but it can be made significantly more secure than interconnectors If we are concerned about security of supply, this has to be weighed. We hear nothing about it, which is surprising. -
BBD at 08:17 AM on 2 July 2011A Detailed Look at Renewable Baseload Energy
JMurphy I suspect the UK government is cosying up to the nuclear industry because there is disquiet about the emerging problems with renewables (which really means wind, in the UK).
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