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Eric the Red at 01:37 AM on 8 June 2011Websites for Watching the Arctic Sea Ice Melt
Another site of interest is the Danish Meterological Institute http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php -
Eric the Red at 01:32 AM on 8 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
#11: See graph above from Knutti and Hegerl. -
Dikran Marsupial at 01:31 AM on 8 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
Riccardo I am not against testing the accuracy of GCMs on a decadal timescale, especially as the modellers seem to feel this is becoming a worthwhile activity (judging from the references given). The problem is that the F&K paper if anything sets progress back by use of bogus statistical procedures and lack of understanding of GCMs. Even their combination of statistical models and GCMs is invalid because they optimise the combinations on the test data and perform a multitude of experiments without taking into account the fact they are doing multiple hypothesis tests. The conclusions seems to be an alternation of overstatement and caveats. This is not the way to do science, do the experiment right and then report the results. If you can't draw a conclusions without caveats that effectively make the conclusion invalid, don't draw it in the first place. The paper suggests decadal predictions will be in th enext IPCC report, I expect they will get the experiments basically right, better to wait for that IMHO. -
Riccardo at 01:17 AM on 8 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
Dikran you're absolutely right on this last point, it doesn't makes much sense to compare GCM with station data. I also agree that they overstate their conclusions and that the IPCC shouldn't be mentioned at all. Probably they are new in the field of climate and slipped badly on this. But let me go back to my original point. I didn't mean that this paper has any particular value; though, it address a point that might be relevant when people try to study the possibility of medium term projections. We all know that GCM are not designed to do this and that they need some new idea to perform this task. F&K idea is not new, right, and not the only one. But I didn't see it applied to decadal projections. I think it's worth a try and in doing this I wouldn't be surprised if we learn something on the short/medium term behaviour of the climate system. -
Robert Murphy at 01:09 AM on 8 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
To be fair to Abbott, who is otherwise clueless about climate change, *he* wasn't proposing a carbon tax in that clip. He was saying that *if* you accept AGW and the need to reduce CO2 emissions dramatically, a carbon tax is better than an emissions trading scheme. He says that immediately after the above clip ends. "Yesterday morning, I uploaded the one minute answer onto YouTube:" It wasn't one minute, he spoke for almost 30 more seconds answering the climate question. In reality, since he doesn't accept AGW as a problem, he's against the emissions trading *and* the carbon tax. Again, he's completely wrong on the science of climate change, but this clip is not evidence of him damning the science on one hand and then on the other hand calling for a carbon tax to reduce emissions when he doesn't think emissions are a problem anyway. -
sime at 01:07 AM on 8 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
Riccardo@2 they do indeed but... The... "not enough evidence" line is really starting to get nauseous, do Abbott and the rest of these individuals phone up their insurance companies demanding proof that their house is going to burn down or that their car is going to be involved in an accident before they will pay their insurance premiums? -
Gregory D. MELLOTT at 01:01 AM on 8 June 2011CO2 lags temperature
One clearly can see in the backside of the direct corrolation between CO2 and temperature, that the CO2 is too high to match. If one seperates the GHGs and notes three basic facts about methane-ice then it can explain alot about why the simple CO2 corrolation is off. One fact is that methane is about 50 times stronger as a GHG than CO2. The second is that it turns into CO2, over time, as it is oxidized. The last fact is that it takes a long time for methane-ice to build up (persisting when the environment is colder). A guess is that it may take 20 to 50 thousand years of cool times for it to become a signicant factor again, once it is released. Noting these points one can then shift the alignent for CO2 down and add the methane-ice release effect on top of it in the initial phases of warming after cooler periods. As for the simple effect of methane released by life forms, it may be a small factor; yet I suspect it pales in comparison to the huge amounts released by the thousands of years of bacteria production in the whole of the earth soils being released over a short period of time. -
actually thoughtful at 00:55 AM on 8 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Eric (Skeptic) "Millions of people on the deltas will need to be moved and compensated for losses, but that will be relatively cheap compared to 100 years of cheaper power in the developed world." That statement strikes me as incorrect. Many threads on Skeptical Science show that renewable energy is relatively cheap (and my own work in the field verifies it). I believe the "millions" can only count the US, and it will be billions (note the consonant) that will need to be relocated. The whole point of talking about AGW (once you study the science) is to prevent it. And of course, your points only relate to the physical location of people and things, not the fact that a warmer world is a natural-services poorer world (ie food and potable water are harder to come by). -
skywatcher at 00:51 AM on 8 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
#9: why would equilibrium sensitivity be lowest during the past 1000 years? Do you have a source for that statement? With easily changeable sea ice areas, the climate of the past 1000 years has a demonstrably substantial sensitivity, as we are proving now (~0.8C transient change for ~35% Co2 increase, so ECS 3C or more per doubling when slow feedbacks have operated). A climate without significant Arctic sea ice would likely have a slightly lower sensitivity that our present climate, as there would be less scope for albedo feedbacks. #10: You mis-interpret. Equilibrium sensitivity is not affected by events as transient as individual solar cycles or ENSO. It is the aggregated effect once slow feedbacks have had time to operate. -
Dikran Marsupial at 00:49 AM on 8 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
Section 3.3 of the F&K paper shows they definitely have no idea about the way in which GCMs are used. They try to use GCMs to predict station data, which obviously is a non-starter. The climate at particular stations depends a lot on the local geography (compare rainfall in Manchester and York for example), where as the value for the nearest gridbox in a GCM is an area average over a very large area. For that very reason impacts studies use statistical downscaling methods that aim to predict local (station level) data from the GCM output for nearby grid boxes (e.g. European scale). Does this get a mention in the paper? No. The reason is because they are basing their work on one paper by Koutsoyiannis et al, which was subject to those same criticisms over at RealClimate. -
Dikran Marsupial at 00:31 AM on 8 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
The more I read this paper, the more surprised I am that it made it through review. There are five steps listed in the description of the GCM system (DePreSys); however in the evaluation F&K only use the first four, but admit that the fifth step gives an improvement in performance. In otherwords, the GCM is only allowed into the fight with one arm tied behind its back. If I were a reviewer I would not have recommended this paper be published unless a fair comparison were performed with the GCM used in accordance with the makers instructions. It may be true that would limit the prediction horizon to nine years rather than ten, but that is far less of a problem than using an incorrect implementation of the GCM based method. -
John Hartz at 00:22 AM on 8 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
"Diffenbaugh and Scherer analyzed more than 50 climate model experiment and found that large areas of Earth could experience a permanent increase in seasonal temperatures within only 60 years. Their analysis included computer simulations of the 21st century when global greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to increase, and simulations of the 20th century that accurately “predicted” the Earth’s climate during the last 50 years." Source: "Stanford Climate Scientists Forecast Hotter Years Ahead", Planetsave (http://s.tt/12BR7) http://s.tt/12BR7 -
Eric (skeptic) at 23:59 PM on 7 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
scaddenp, I believe nuclear will be cheaper under the conditions I specified above: that private insurance companies enforce safety and the government enforces measurement and payments for injury (rational payments based on statistical cancer risks). Your other point, that coal is cheap, is valid. People didn't like my Rube Goldberg idea for cutting travel fuel in half and they probably won't like my cut electricity in half ideas either. But since my early posts here I have supported the smart grid and that would greatly smooth out the expensive peaks. But that still leaves cheap coal baseload production. Addressing the externalities, we need to be more precise about the costs. Droughts, floods, heat waves, and other weather need to be costed with regard to their natural variations. Sea level is easier since it isn't weather, so let's pick that. It will cost you a new airport. The late Senator Byrd would literally move a mountain, fill in a valley and get you a new high elevation airport (see route 55 in WV). Millions of people on the deltas will need to be moved and compensated for losses, but that will be relatively cheap compared to 100 years of cheaper power in the developed world. The actual number of years will be a lot less with technological progress. The doomsday scenarios ignore facts (e.g. calthrates don't melt in the Gulf of Mexico and won't melt in the Arctic below the same or higher levels). We can argue these details on other threads, but my point is that the external costs need to be realistic otherwise it will be a nonstarter academic exercise. -
jyyh at 23:11 PM on 7 June 2011Poleward motion of storm tracks
Some more talk of other recent papers at http://rabett.blogspot.com/2011/06/eli-is-evil-bunny.html , maybe relevant to this, or, the whole atmospheric circulation. -
Dikran Marsupial at 23:07 PM on 7 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
Riccardo I don't think this paper sheds much light on the limitations of GCMs (especially ensembles of GCMs). As I said, GCMs only aim to predict forced climate change, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that a statistical forcasting model that is directly aiming to predict the observed climate is more accurate. They haven't mentioned this point as far as page 10, perhaps the do afterwards. They provide very little justification for decadal timescales as those relevant to policymaking. As they say that the IPCC are more interested in long term centenial timescales, one wonders why they mention the IPCC so often in the report given that the IPCC policy guidance is based on centenial timescales not decadal ones (and thus their paper is only of tangential relevance). Their idea about reinitialising the GCMs is basically what is done in reanalysis, so it is hardly new. The paper also hints that is what is done in the Mochizuki paper anyway (but one paper at a time! ;o) I like the analagy, similarly why would F&K (or any skeptics) expect the sprinter to win the marathon? Statistical methods working well on decadal predictions does not mean they are more accurate on centenial scales. As a statistician myself, I would much rather extrapolate using a physics based model than a purely statistcal model (and a neural network is pretty much the last statistical model I would use). An interesting experiment would be to see how statistical methods fare in predicting the output of individual model runs (treating the model as statistically exchangeable with the real world) on both decadal and centennial scales. I suspect the models perform better on centennial scales (as they are designed to do), even if the model used for prediction is not the same model used for generating the synthetic observations. It would at least be a sanity check of their conclusions. -
Tom Curtis at 23:07 PM on 7 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
What strikes me about his taxation scheme is the complete futility of it. It is a common denier myth that at tax and dividend scheme as proposed by Hansen, and such as Australia may soon get a hybrid version of that it will be ineffective because the consumers will receive back all the extra money they pay in carbon tax, so there will be no net incentive to change behaviour. This is false in that the dividend it not tied to the effective carbon emissions of the consumers. By sourcing electricity from low carbon sources, or using it more efficiently, they can reduce the amount of carbon tax they pay while not reducing their dividend. That creates a clear incentive to reduce carbon emissions. In contrast to Hansen's scheme, however, Abbot proposes that at the end of each year you would be able to get "... a rebate of the tax you paid". (45 seconds in) In other words, your rebate would equal the carbon tax paid during the year. If you reduce your carbon emissions, and therefore the tax paid, you equally reduce your rebate. Consequently there is only minimal incentive to reduce your carbon emissions. The small remaining incentive is in the delay between paying the carbon tax and receiving your rebate, a period during which you are effectively paying the government a forced interest free loan. The effective Carbon tax on Abbot's scheme reduces effectively to the interest rate on the nominal tax rate, or typically about one twentieth of the nominal rate. The administrative costs would, however, be a function of the nominal rate, making this an incredibly burdensome and inefficient, not to mention ineffective tax. I must emphasise that none of these points are valid criticisms of genuine tax and dividend schemes in which the dividend paid is independent of carbon emissions. -
Riccardo at 22:47 PM on 7 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
because one can always say "not enough evidence" and because he can eventually say "now it's enough" at any moment if politically convenient. -
Tom Curtis at 22:41 PM on 7 June 2011IEA CO2 Emissions Update 2010 - Bad News
scaddenp @49, the idea for using charcoal was suggested to me by half remembered history of steel manufacture, with charcoal being used in many early steel making processes, including the first blast furnaces. Obviously what was done before can be done again. As to modern approaches to using charcoal for steel manufacture, I cannot help you, though St Google advises me that the CSIRO is interested in the process. -
SoundOff at 22:18 PM on 7 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
I’d think climate sensitivity is not even a constant in the here and now, just an average over typical conditions. It’s like the average speed of a large truck (lorry) traveling through a hilly region. As this truck passes through the Solar Cycle Hills or climbs Enso Mountain, the driver of the truck shifts at times between low and high gear, which affects the actual speed. -
JMurphy at 21:59 PM on 7 June 2011Tony Abbott denies climate change and advocates carbon tax in the same breath
Why do all those in denial (especially the politicians) regurgitate exactly the same fallacies and make unsubstatiated claims of not being convinced, especially when they are generally in no position to be able to come to a credible scientific judgement ? They seem to try to make themselves sound knowledgeable and convincing but only end up looking foolish - except to those who want to believe what is being expressed. -
Bob Lacatena at 21:40 PM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
1058, RW1,
3 layers: sun/space (A), atmosphere (B), surface (C) 6 paths: sun to atmosphere (1), atmosphere to surface (2), sun directly to surface (3), surface directly to space (4), surface to atmosphere (5) and atmosphere to space (6). For each path (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) identify the total energy flow, and list the contributing components and values (e.g. "thermals, 17"). For each layer (A, B, C) identify to the total in and out in each direction (up, down), as well as the total in/out for the layer, and the net (i.e. in minus out). For extra credit, identify the separate amounts of energy absorbed, reflected, and emitted by each layer. When you have worked through these numbers, and can see that everything balances and why, then you will be ready to actually start discussing any meaning behind the numbers and how they were determined.sun (A) <-6---1-> atmosphere (B) <-5---2-> surface (C) <-4-------------------------------------3-> -
Eric the Red at 21:22 PM on 7 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
Agree sky, The sensitivity is not a constant, but a value for here and now. This is part of the reason why calculations based on data during the last glacial maximum different from those millions of years ago. Sea ice is one issue, vegetation is another, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations also comes into play. The sensitivity is lowest during the last millenium, but that could be data limited. -
Riccardo at 21:19 PM on 7 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
Dikran Marsupial I'm not even sure that the paper's conclusions are flawed. They might be ambiguos when they do not explictly say that they're talking about decadal forecasts. Here I see more of a misinterpretation than a flaw, given that the authors consider a decade as the policy relevant time range; I disagree on this, but the authors explicitly express their point of view in the paper. The authors also note that on longer time scales GCM do a good job, as I quoted in a previous comment. I think that this paper is a contribution to the understanding of the weaknesses of the DePrSys GCM (and probably of any GCM) when modified to try decadal projections. If I understand correctly what they say, their suggestion is to re-initialize the GCM each year with the measured status of the climate system, one thing that current GCMs don't do by construction. This might be a good way to improve GCMs when dealing with decadal projections, but it doesn't have much to do with long term climatic trends. A general point on the noise skeptics are making. Why should I be surprised if an athlete trained to run a marathon runs 100 m and doesn't win? -
skywatcher at 20:50 PM on 7 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
#6 - what Dikran said, and to add to the equilibrium climate sensitivity's uniqueness, it's value is not the same every time the Earth is forced from 280-390ppm. In a future Earth, where the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic sea ice have been melted, yet we return CO2 levels to pre-industrial values, Earth's equilibrium sensitivity will be different because of the lack of ice sheet and sea ice, even if all the other forcings were the same. Each particular state of the Earth (continent configuration, ice sheet configuration etc) has a particular equilibrium sensitivity to CO2 forcing. It's highly likely that ours is high enough to be very concerned about the quantity of carbon we are putting into the atmosphere. -
Dikran Marsupial at 19:54 PM on 7 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
Charlie A wrote "Are you saying that we should not trust the climate models to make reliable decadal projections?" I think the point that Riccardo was making is that the accuracy of decadal predictions is not necessarily a useful indicator of the ability to make reliable projections on the centential time scale that is relevant to any polity decision. The Fildes and Kourentzes paper is deeply flawed because it tries to cast doubt on the IPCC use of model based predictions on the grounds that statistical methods make better decadal predictions. This is a non-sequitur, the conclusion is not justified by the premise. On a decadal scale, the observations are dominated by sources of natural variability such as ENSO. This is the reason why claims like "no global warming since 1998" are bogus. Decadal observations tell you very little about forced climate change. Thus statistical methods are as good as anything for decadal predictions. Now climate models do not attempt to directly predict the observed climate, they attempt to estimate only the forced component. The ensemble mean is a prediction of the forced change, the error bars (formed by the spread of the ensemble predictions) is an indication of what climate change we are likely to actually observe (taking natural variability and other uncertainties into account). On a short timescale (e.g. decadal), the effects of forced climate change are small compared to natural variability, so one should expect the forced climate change to be different from the observations. However on a decadal scale the error bars will be very wide, so the models are still reliable (as they tell you how uncertain their prediction is). GCM predictions of decadal climate are reliable, provided you bear in mind that it is something they are not really intended for, and you take into account the error bars. Essentially decadal predictions are long timescale weather prediction, not climate projection. -
Dikran Marsupial at 19:37 PM on 7 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
okatiniko@6 "Climate sensitivity" refers to the equilibrium sensitivity of the climate to a change in the forcings, i.e. it describes the change in global average temperatures once all regional variations (due to a change in forcings) have had time to balance out. Climate sensitivity describes long term changes in climate due to a change in forcings. Unforced variations are indeed not described by climate sensitivity. Unforced variations cause short term quasi-cyclic changes in climate. Your surprise about Hansen's averaging appears to be due to not appreciating what climate sensitivity actually describes. The discussion of "the" sensitivity is not confusing once you know that it refers to the equilibroum sensitivity of globally averaged temperatures to a change in forcings. Of course you could define many other sensitivities if you so desired, but the reason climatologists discuss "the" equilibrum climate sensitivity is that it is the definition that is relevant to a discussion of long-term climate change. -
Kevin C at 19:10 PM on 7 June 2011Can we trust climate models?
Charlie @87:His simple single time constant lag model has 0.99+ correlation with the output of two different AOGCMs. Like you, he doesn't believe this is likely to be a good replica of the real, complex response fuction of the real climate system. That was the point of that series of articles. He was surprised at well the GCM model outputs (on a global average) could be replicated by simply multiplying the forcings by a constant, or multiplying by a constant and then a lowpass filter.
Sorry, I must have mis-expressed myself. That is not my position at all. I think it is completely unsurprising, indeed inevitable, that a lag-model of some sort will duplicate the behaviour of both models and the temperature record. Why? Because conservation of energy trumps chaos. So I think Eschenbach surprise springs from a failure to go back to the physics. My comment about the model being too simple applied to his single-box model only, and the resulting need to adjust the forcings, not to lag models in general. The only question is over what time scale conservation of energy trumps chaos. Clearly averaging over the globe, a year, and an ensemble of model runs is plenty (hence my correlation to the ModelE ensemble is 99.3%, haven't tried CCSM). It would be interesting to compare against individual runs to get an idea of the range of variation, and see if that compares to the variation in the real temperature series. My understanding is that much of the remaining variation arises from energy 'sloshing about' inside the system, coupled with the facts that we only observe a tiny part of that system and that we look at temperature not energy. -
Ari Jokimäki at 17:31 PM on 7 June 2011Poleward motion of storm tracks
Stevo #15, in my opinion, the size of the effect might not yet be very certain but it seems that the effect is ongoing. There are some other studies showing that Hadley Cell is expanding and that supports the results of this study. Additionally, also another study (Zhou et al. 2011, also full text is available) published recently gave very similar results to this study. So, I think it is quite safe conclusion that this study along with other studies seem to give a robust picture of atmospheric zones travelling polewards. How fast they are travelling might be more uncertain. -
okatiniko at 16:10 PM on 7 June 2011Christy Crock #6: Climate Sensitivity
I don't really understand why we speak of "the" climate sensitivity, as if it were a unique "scalar" , like the electron mass. When applied to intra-annual variability (comparing summer to winter) , the boreal summer/austral winter is warmer than the austral summer, although the solar input is significantly lower (more than 6 % = 20 W.m-2 less ! ). This means that the "sensitivity" would be negative, which is absurd. This is due of course to the fact that lands reacts much more than oceans, and that they represent a larger area in the Northern hemisphere. So the average temperature doesn't depend only on "global" energy input, but also on its spatial repartition (which varies following the astronomical variations). In the same way, the fact that climate has delayed responses implies that the "sensitivity" is actually frequency dependent (much like a complex impedance). This is not T=S.F but rather T(omega) = S(omega).F(omega) (relations between Fourier components) , which is not the same at all and does not imply a proportionality between instantaneous values. And I even don't speak about unforced variations that cannot be described by "sensitivities" at all, since the global temperature can change with little or no change of forcings. So I'm rather surprised to see Hansen computing an "average" sensitivity by summing forcings that don't have the same spatial pattern (GHG and snow albedo for instance), which means actually adding apples and oranges, and even more surprised to see him comparing sensitivities on very different timescales. I think these discussions about "the" sensitivity are actually very confusing. -
caerbannog at 15:48 PM on 7 June 2011Of Averages & Anomalies - Part 2B. More on why Surface Temperature records are more robust than we think
Here's another set of results that folks here might want to take a look at... Down at the bottom of this post is another interesting little plot I generated. This one shows what happens when you throw out 90 percent of the temperature stations at random (with no attempt to maintain uniform geographic coverage). What I did here was to generate a random integer (with a pseudorandom number generator) between 0 and 9 (inclusive) for each temperature station. If the integer value was 9, I included the station in the computations; otherwise, I threw it out. I repeated this 10 times (each time throwing out a different random "9 out of 10" selection of stations) -- this effectively ruled out a "lucky hit" cherry-pick situation. The official NASA/GISS land-station results (with all temperature stations) are shown as the dark-red plot line in the foreground of the figure below; all the other plot lines are results from my "throw out 9 out of 10 stations" processing. As you can see, my results are quite consistent, although they do tend to show a bit *more* warming than the official NASA "all stations" results. This is probably a result of NH overweighting; throwing out 90 percent of the stations will create more coverage gaps in the SH (where there has been less warming) than in the NH (where warming has been more pronounced). Just speculating here; I haven't really investigated this. These results show two things -- (1) the GHCN temperature record really is robust (and oversampled), and (2) if anything, it appears that NASA goes out of its way to avoid exaggerating the global-warming trend -- if NASA were really "cooking the books" to exaggerate the warming trend, at least some of my runs would have shown a smaller warming trend than NASA's. But that is obviously not the case here. (Ignore the details of the plot legend; the legend labels are cryptic abbreviations of some processing-run parameters that are of no consequence here.)
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RW1 at 14:06 PM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Sphaerica (RE: 1059), I don't understand the assignment as you've laid it out. Thanks for the interest though. -
scaddenp at 13:59 PM on 7 June 2011IEA CO2 Emissions Update 2010 - Bad News
Tom - I'm surprised that you get enough air flow for modern steel but your comment sent me rushing to google to see if anyone was doing it. I couldnt spot any large scale operation (though I was interested to see how much pig iron Brazil was producing by this process) - do you know of one? -
Bob Lacatena at 13:57 PM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
RW1,It is my view that the overwhelming majority of people at this site do not understand the information in tables and diagram from Trenberth's 2009 paper, nor do they understand the constraints COE puts on the boundary between the surface and the TOA, so I'm presenting evidence and logic in support of these things.
Here's a homework assignment for you to work out entirely on your own, without assistance. This is a fairly simple assignment. I'm pretty sure just about everyone in my town middle school (6th to 8th grade) could get it right. The Trenberth energy budget has three layers: space, atmosphere, ground. It has 6 distinct paths of energy flow; space/sun to atmosphere, space/sun to ground, atmosphere to space, atmosphere to ground, ground to atmosphere, and ground to space. Please identify the components and individual and sum values for each of these elements (meaning in/out for each layer [3 pairs of values, in and out], and in/out for each interface between layers [6 pairs of values, in and out] ), identify which balance, and where you would expect the system, based on these numbers, to get out of balance. This is not a post that requires any response other than the answers. Until you arrive at these answers on your own, no one has any reason to listen or respond to you. -
Bob Lacatena at 13:43 PM on 7 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
431, J. Bob, and DB... 431, J. Bob, and DB... Because it's a computer. A curly quote is an entirely different encoded character than an ASCII quote. The HTML standard is to recognize ASCI single ' or double " quotes as delimiters for HTML tag attribute values, but not curly “ ” quotes, which shouldn't be generated anyway in a browser text box, but would be if you, for instance, composed your message in Word and then tried to copy/paste (because Word very helpfully converts your quotes to pretty curlies for human consumption, but the computer puts into the same category as bullets and all sorts of other characters, meaning it ignores them).Response:[DB] Thanks for filling my daily quota of learning 1 thing. Time for bed.
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Stevo at 13:37 PM on 7 June 2011Poleward motion of storm tracks
Given the innaccuracies due to satelite viewing angles and cloud thickness, how confident can we be storm track data? Yes, the trend would fit well with climate theory but I'm not sure how confident we be at this point in time. Would we not need a better method of measurement over a significant period of time to draw any real conclusions here? -
RW1 at 13:30 PM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Tom Curtis (RE: 1048, 1050), ""The difference is 1.2 rather than 0.9, but Trenberth et al use 0.9 because: a) The difference between 1.2 and 0.9 is well within experimental error;" So what you're saying is Trenberth lists 0.9 as the "NET Down" in table 2b because it's arbitrarily within 'experimental error' of 1.2 W/m^2 and not because it means the same thing as "NET Down" in table 2a? OK, I'm perfectly willing to let this stand against what I've presented and everyone can make up their own mind. -
KR at 13:14 PM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
RW1 - "If Tom does not want to continue this discussion - that's fine with me, but I can't help but to interpret his self removal as defeat." Actually, if Tom decides he doesn't want to continue the discussion with you, I would congratulate him. You have consistently and repeatedly dismissed/ignored proven physics, cycled over and over on ideas that have been notably contradicted by actual measurements, and stated that: "...I'm not really interested in being helped per say. I'm a staunch skeptic of AGW, so my purpose here is to present contradictory evidence and logic that disputes the theory. That's what I'm doing." In my eyes, RW1, that makes you a troll, not someone actually interested in the science. Your arguments (and conclusions) are driven by your position, which is exactly backwards from how the scientific method works. And your comments on these posts illustrate that clearly to the unbiased reader - a self correcting issue. Folks, DNFTT. -
RW1 at 13:07 PM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
pbjamm (RE: 1052), "Are you trying to learn about a subject you do not understand or do you think you understand it better than anyone else?" I admit I'm not here specifically to 'learn' per say, but I am fully capable of changing my mind on things when evidence dictates. I even changed my mind on something here due to evidence presented by Tom Curtis in regards to insolation in the Artic. I couldn't deny the evidence he presented to the contrary and acknowledged I was wrong. It is my view that the overwhelming majority of people at this site do not understand the information in tables and diagram from Trenberth's 2009 paper, nor do they understand the constraints COE puts on the boundary between the surface and the TOA, so I'm presenting evidence and logic in support of these things. Everyone here is free to make up their own mind, of course. If Tom does not want to continue this discussion - that's fine with me, but I can't help but to interpret his self removal as defeat. But again, everyone should make up their own mind. -
Tom Curtis at 13:01 PM on 7 June 2011IEA CO2 Emissions Update 2010 - Bad News
scaddenp @48 charcoal made from plantation timber can substitute for coal in steel manufacture. At what carbond price that would become economically viable I do not know; and whether it would ever be ecologically a good idea is also on open question for me. -
J. Bob at 12:56 PM on 7 June 2011Are you a genuine skeptic or a climate denier?
Eric the Red @ 421, Smoothing, or filtering of data can have an effect of how results are interpreted. The following shows how different smoothing intervals, of filter cut-off frequencies can lead to different interpretations. Three different smoothing, or filtering methods are used: Moving average (MOV) centered Recursive forward & reverse [“filtfilt” MATLAB] (Chev ff) Fourier Convolution (FF) In the top figure a 10 yr. or 0.1 cycle/yr. cut off was used. In the lower figure, a 30 yr., or 0.03 cycle/yr was used. As expected, the top figure is more responsive to the input data, then the lower. So while the top figure might indicate a flattening or dipping of the global temperature, the lower on would indicate the temperature is continuing to rise.
Filter effects on HadCRUT3 Data
Kind of like results can be in the eye of the beholder.
Response:[DB] Fixed image (you used ” instead of "...makes a difference[don't ask me why]). Please remember to keep image widths below 500 pixels.
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scaddenp at 12:38 PM on 7 June 2011IEA CO2 Emissions Update 2010 - Bad News
Since solar cells produce more energy (by considerable margin) than is consumed in making them, you dont have to burn coal to make them at all. All renewables (including hydro and geothermal) and solar cells themselves can be used to create more. Coal is for foreseeable future needed to create steel. -
RW1 at 12:21 PM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Tom Curtis (RE: 1051), "In response RW1 accuses me of saying the Net Down means something different for the TOA and Surface tables, and suggests the identity of the values is unexplained." I'm not accusing, just asking for clarification because I'm not sure I understand what you're saying. If you agree that "NET Down" means the same thing in both tables, why not just acknowledge it? I specifically asked about the data in the table of 0.9 W/m^2, not the 0.3 W/m^2 discrepancy relative to the numbers in the diagram, which I am aware of. I'll ask one more time. What does "NET Down" mean in tables 2a and 2b? If they mean the same thing, there is only one possible answer. -
trunkmonkey at 12:18 PM on 7 June 2011IEA CO2 Emissions Update 2010 - Bad News
There is no doubt that there is enough solar energy at the top of the atmosphere to provide for all of humanity's energy needs, including a margin for bringing the third world up to western living standards. Has anyone calculated the amount of coal that would need to be burned to produce the solar cells and windmills to access this? -
pbjamm at 12:07 PM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
RW1@everywhere Are you trying to learn about a subject you do not understand or do you think you understand it better than anyone else? -
Tom Curtis at 11:59 AM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Fairly clear evidence that RW1 is trolling rather than debating: Me @1048:"The difference is 1.2 rather than 0.9, but Trenberth et al use 0.9 because: a) The difference between 1.2 and 0.9 is well within experimental error; b) The TOA balance has smaller experimental errors (+/-3% for individual components), and hence is considered more accurate than the surface balance (+/-5% for individual components except for Surface Radiation and Back Radiation which are +/-10%); and because c) If the surface was absorbing 0.3 Watts/m^2 more than was the planet (TOA) over a five year period, the excess energy would need to come from the atmosphere, plummeting atmospheric temperatures by about 24 degrees C over that period, whereas atmospheric temperatures increased over that period."
RW1 @1050:"how is it that the 'NET Down" in the surface components table 2b and the TOA components table 2a is exactly the same (0.9 W/m^2?)? Are you saying that 'Net Down' means something different in each table?"
So, in the post to which RW1 is responding I indicate that Trenberth et al use the Net Down calculated from the TOA at the surface rather than that calculated at the surface. I give sound reasons for that decision. In response RW1 accuses me of saying the Net Down means something different for the TOA and Surface tables, and suggests the identity of the values is unexplained. Either RW1 is deliberately misrepresenting the content of my (and e, and Sphaerica, and whoever else has been mad enough to try and clear up his "confusion" in this 1050 post thread) and of Trenberth et al; or he is terminally stupid; or he simply does not bother reading the responses in any event. All of RW1s confusions have been cleared up multiple times before, including by myself in the last 24 hours. If he really wants to understand, he can reread those posts and try to understand them.Response:[DB] When dealing with RW1, remember his own words:
"I appreciate that you seem to be interested in helping me, but I'm not really interested in being helped per say. I'm a staunch skeptic of AGW, so my purpose here is to present contradictory evidence and logic that disputes the theory. That's what I'm doing."
We deal with a closed-minded individual who is here for the sole purpose of wasting as much of as many people's time as possible.
Solution
Ignore him. DNFTT.
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trunkmonkey at 11:28 AM on 7 June 2011Poleward motion of storm tracks
"Despite numerous studies, it is not clear exactly why the storm tracks move polewards in models." Mid latitude cyclones are inherent it the earth's climatic zones. It has been a first principle of climatology for a very long time that these zones migrate poleward in the summer and equatorward in the winter. It follows, and has been a first principle of paleoclimatoly and paleoecology since at least the early 20th century that climatic and ecological zones migrate poleward (and higher in altitude on mountains)during warm periods in earth history. The attribution may be disputable, but very few reasonable people dispute that we have been in a warming trend, and the models certainly predict this warming trend, so it should be no surprise that the models predict a poleward movement of the storm tracks, nor that such movement has been observed. -
RW1 at 11:26 AM on 7 June 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Tom Curtis (RE: 1048), ""Solar Absorbed" which is solar energy absorbed in the atmosphere, and hence not part of the surface balance (78.2)" Not directly, no. It gets there indirectly, as I explained in #1038. Why even include it in the table? If the 78.2 W/m^2 does not get to the surface as you claim, how is it that the 'NET Down" in the surface components table 2b and the TOA components table 2a is exactly the same (0.9 W/m^2?)? Are you saying that 'Net Down' means something different in each table? Is it a coincidence that 161.2 + 78.2 = 239.4 W/m^2 and this is exactly the same as the ASR in table 2a? All I'm saying is that 239.4 W/m^2 from the Sun has to get to the surface one way or another if energy is to be conserved. Maybe you agree with this and we are just talking past each other, but it doesn't sound like it to me.
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