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cctpp85 at 01:45 AM on 21 January 20242023's unexpected and unexplained warming
Hello,
I have said several times it is of second order importance regarding your expectations so I am not expecting anything more.
Hoping moderation convinces you better than me.
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Evan at 22:08 PM on 20 January 2024CCDH Report: The New Climate Denial
John@1, I would like to echo your tactic of asking people for their sources. I also find this an effective tactic. Some get agitated when asked for their sources, because they realize that they themselves don't really know.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:33 PM on 20 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2 2024
gerontocrat’s recommended reading (comment @2) is informative and enlightening.
It is well aligned with the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals and the Green-washing item I commented on @1.
The Introduction opens with:
Modern humans and millions of other species face an unprecedented number of existential threats due to anthropogenic impacts exceeding our planet’s boundaries.1 We are in dangerous territory with instability in the known realms of biosphere integrity, land system change and novel entities such as plastics and synthetic toxins, climate change, freshwater change and biogeochemical flows.
Considering the dynamic, closed and interconnected nature of Earth’s systems together, these threats pose an increasingly catastrophic risk to all complex life on Earth. Many scientists privately believe it to be already too late to avoid the tipping points that will trigger devastating and irreversible feedback loops.2
It is increasingly acknowledged that all of these threats are symptoms of anthropogenic ecological overshoot. Overshoot is defined as the human consumption of natural resources at rates faster than they can be replenished, and entropic waste production in excess of the Earth’s assimilative and processing capacity.
And the opening of the Conclusion is:
In summary, the evidence indicates that anthropogenic ecological overshoot stems from a crisis of maladaptive human behaviours. While the behaviours generating overshoot were once adaptive for H. sapiens, they have been distorted and extended to the point where they now threaten the fabric of complex life on Earth. Simply, we are trapped in a system built to encourage growth and appetites that will end us.
And the Conclusion includes the following:
The current emphasis for overshoot intervention is resource intensive (e.g. the global transition to renewable energy) and single-symptom focused. Indeed, most mainstream attention and investment is directed towards mitigating and adapting to climate change. Even if this narrow intervention is successful, it will not resolve the meta-crisis of ecological overshoot, in fact, with many of the current resource-intensive interventions, it is likely to make matters worse. Psychological interventions are likely to prove far less resource-intensive and more effective than physical ones.
- We call for increased attention on the behavioural crisis as a critical intervention point for addressing overshoot and its myriad symptoms.
- We advocate increased interdisciplinary collaboration between the social and behavioural science theorists and practitioners, advised by scientists working on limits to growth and planetary boundaries.
- We call for additional research to develop a full understanding of the many dimensions of the behavioural crisis (including the overwhelming influence of power structures) and how we can best address it.
- We call for an emergency, concerted, multidisciplinary effort to target the populations and value levers most likely to produce rapid global adoption of new consumption, reproduction and waste norms congruent with the survival of complex life on Earth.
- We call for increased interdisciplinary work to be carried out in directing, understanding and policing widespread behaviour manipulation.
I bolded the last item because it is a key point. The paper indicates that efforts to raise awareness and improve understanding of the problem, promoting the science, are not bringing about the required rate and magnitude of changes of behaviour.
The section immediately preceding the Conclusion is titled: Directing and policing widespread behaviour manipulation. It is brief and is quoted below:
Behavioural manipulation has been intentionally used for nefarious purposes before, and as we’ve just explored, has played a critical role in the creation of the behavioural crisis and consequential ecological overshoot. Eco-centric behaviour is the heart of any sustainable future humanity might wish to achieve. Moreover, we are at a crossroads,with three paths ahead:
- We can choose to continue using behavioural manipulation to deepen our dilemma,
- We can choose to ignore it and leave it to chance, or
- We can use an opportunity that almost no other species has had and consciously steer our collective behaviours to conform to the natural laws that bind all life on Earth.
This raises ethical questions, for example, who is worthy of wielding such power? At present, the answer is anyone with the necessary influence or financial means to exploit it. However, we should not entrust this to any individual human, company, government or industry. Instead, any continued use of widespread behavioural manipulation should be firmly bound by, and anchored within a framework built upon the laws of the natural world, as well as the science on limits to growth.
We urgently call for increased interdisciplinary work to be carried out in directing, understanding and policing widespread behaviour manipulation.
What the authors are calling for will require ‘policing of political marketing’. That will require ending the legitimacy of demands for the freedom of competitors for leadership and higher status to claim whatever they want as the justification for doing whatever they please, with popularity and profit being the measures of acceptability.
That ‘systemic change of what is allowed in competition for status and leadership' is essential for humanity to have a lasting improving future on this one, and potentially only, amazing planet that humans could have a long future on.
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John McKeon at 14:24 PM on 20 January 2024CCDH Report: The New Climate Denial
Learning climate science and the science of climate change and the science of how and why burning fossil fuels at the scale that the world is now engaged is a BFD*, has been for me inextricably linked to learning about disinformation.
Disinformation is a phenomenon that also can be understood as a subject of disciplined scientific enquiry. If I get into a friendly sincere discussion with family members, friends, acquaintences or strangers I like to enquire as politely as I can manage about what sources they use to gather information (or DISinformation!) about the world.
* BFD is an acronym that I learned from the very calm, mild mannered climate scientist, Jim Hansen. It means Big #@$!%^& Deal. -
Eclectic at 09:42 AM on 20 January 20242023's unexpected and unexplained warming
Cctpp85 , it seems you are wanting to make a statement of some sort, but you are burying your message "between the lines" (to a large extent).
So much simpler, to plainly put your cards on the table; and explain what you think the problems are, and point those out very clearly. Point out any weaknesses or gross faults ~ and suggest how those may be fixed (if at all fixable, indeed) . . . . or at the very least, you should draw clear and valid inferences which will advance everyone's understanding of the climate situation.
Be boldly candid.
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michael sweet at 00:42 AM on 19 January 2024It's only a few degrees
Retired guy at 10:
Arhennius predicted in 1896 (that is 1896, not a typo) that warming would be greater at night than during the day, greater in winter than summer and greater at high latitudes. Perhaps the scientists do not emphasize this point since it has been discussed so long by those who pay attention.
This sounds like another attempt by deniers to grasp at straws to try to minimize the problem. I have seen a lot of articles that say that high temperatures at night make it much harder for people to live in hot areas because there is no time to recover from the daily heat. Likewise many plants in temperate areas require night time cold to produce fruit (think apples, peaches, cherries, grapes and nuts). Of course sea level rise will be greater since Greenland and the Antarctic will melt faster when they are warmer.
The deniers have nothing so they make up stuff to argue about.
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John Mason at 23:43 PM on 18 January 2024It's only a few degrees
#10, Retiredguy
A link to any such argument would be useful, if you would be so kind. But see the responses to Jasper above. They should at least partially answer your question. Denier logic is always badly flawed but we need more details of the argument to point out why.
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retiredguy at 23:02 PM on 18 January 2024It's only a few degrees
I'm reading climate skeptic/deniers claim that because winter, nightime and high latitude temps have increased more than summer, daytime and lower latitudes, that the negative impacts of global warming are being exaggerated by climate 'alarmists', and that furthermore, the IPCC and climate scientists are intentionally not highlighting this. Can you comment ?
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cctpp85 at 22:34 PM on 18 January 20242023's unexpected and unexplained warming
Hello,
Considering your political motivation, my request if of secondary importance.
I would be glad anyway if anyone can provide me with the details of the NCEP reanalyses recent story.
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory snipped.
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Eclectic at 21:26 PM on 18 January 20242023's unexpected and unexplained warming
Cctpp85 @5 :
Indeed, and thank you. But what are the significances of it all?
It is a technical point of second order importance, whether the tiger is a Bengal or Siberian tiger ~ but what is the conclusion that we should draw, when we see the beast, and what practical action should we take? In other words, what is the central thrust of the underlying message that you were intending to convey to readers?
Re-analysis (or other usage of statistics) has a purpose in science. How would you yourself clarify the situation, in the way that you would wish readers to understand?
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cctpp85 at 18:48 PM on 18 January 20242023's unexpected and unexplained warming
Hello,
I replied recently to Daniel Bailey because he thought I was a beginner.
My first message was about NCEP "strange" reanalysis outputs and the fact that everyone left them out of recent discussion, which maybe has some link with the "strange" outputs. My natural curiosity leads me to look for more details about that story.
This is just a technical point, of second order importance, but many articles here are also technical points.
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Eclectic at 08:59 AM on 18 January 20242023's unexpected and unexplained warming
Cctpp85 @1 and @3 :
Please clarify the main points that you wish to make. Casual readers - such as myself - like to improve our knowledge about important aspects of climate.
When considering matters of analysis and re-analysis, we like to "cut to the chase" and find out the practical end result of it all.
Somehow, I am reminded of an apocryphal story by David Attenborough, about a man who encountered a tiger in central Asia. And while the man was pondering whether it was a Bengal tiger or a Siberian tiger . . . . he "got et".
[ Excuse the Attenboroughian pronunciation. ]
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michael sweet at 00:41 AM on 18 January 2024What role for small modular nuclear reactors in combating climate change?
I linked a paper on SMR's on another thread. Here is another link. Short summary: they will never work. Too expensive.
nuclear is too expensive and the materials do not exist.
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michael sweet at 00:37 AM on 18 January 2024Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
This peer reviewed paper fron 2021 in IEEEaccess reviews the issues with small modular reactors. They conclude that SMR's will be at least twice as expensive as large reactors and the rest of the claims by SMR supporters are simply a bunch of stuff. It is unlikely that more than a very few demonstration reactors will ever be built. Those that are built will be paid for by governments. I note that the nuclear indusry has made many claims over the past decades that were a bunch of stuff.
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cctpp85 at 19:35 PM on 17 January 20242023's unexpected and unexplained warming
Hello,
I know what is a reanalysis. The departure from observation-based analysis is not an argument because reanalyses consider observations as probabilities and are allowed to depart from observations if probabilistic optimization supports it.
Do you know about the details proving that all NCEP probabilistic optimizations are flawed?
In a multi model ensemble analysis, any model which is "often lower quality" but not clearly flawed participates nonetheless to the final probabilities. Otherwise it is not a multi model ensemble strategy and no final probabilities can be given.
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Daniel Bailey at 07:24 AM on 17 January 20242023's unexpected and unexplained warming
cctpp85, one answer is that it's the difference between theory-based calculations (reanalysis products) and direct observations.
Parker 2016 - Reanalyses and Observations: What’s the Difference?
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cctpp85 at 23:44 PM on 16 January 20242023's unexpected and unexplained warming
Hello,
Why have NCEP reanalyses been ruled out of the all time record estimate for 2023 in WMO and many others' articles?
Evidently NCEP reanalyses changed the SST source near 2020 which brings some complexity but I do not have more details.
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BTGovier at 08:43 AM on 15 January 2024Statistic of the decade: The massive deforestation of the Amazon
Additionally, you'd need roughly 2 acres per head.
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BTGovier at 08:38 AM on 15 January 2024Statistic of the decade: The massive deforestation of the Amazon
The cost of jungle land is much less than that (yeah, I'm Brazilian). Some of it comes free formland grabbers. Most of the land where cattle is has first been grabbed, the. harvested for timber, then burnt, then used for cattle.
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Just Dean at 03:35 AM on 15 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2 2024
I found that this article by Dr. Robert Rohde at Berkeley Earth to include some factors that Zeke did not speak to or emphasize. In particular, the anomalous warming/natural variability of the North Atlantic.
"We believe that natural variability in the North Atlantic and other regions is largely responsible for the surge in global mean temperatures in the middle of the year, well before the 2023 El Niño event had gathered strength."
This observation is consistent with an earlier report/article by Dr. Nicolas Gruber, Ref.
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BaerbelW at 21:12 PM on 14 January 2024Polar bear numbers are increasing
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal was updated on January 14, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
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michael sweet at 06:18 AM on 14 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2 2024
Zekie Hausfather posted a summary of 2023 on Carbon Brief today. He put a summary of the temperature record on Climate Brink. The Carbon Brief article contaiind more data about sea level rise, climate records, sea ice and glacier melt and a few other things. They are written for lay people to read. They are very informative. The Climate Brink article is shorter.
He says that the reason that 2023 was so not is not known. The predictions of the 2023 temperature from a year ago were much too low. He says he thinks the volcano and aerosols have too small an effect to account for 2023 but so does a typical El Nino. We will have to wait for more data to find out the scientific reason.
The Climate Brink article would make a good OP here at SkS. The Carbon Brief article is longer than OPs usually are here.
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gerontocrat at 05:24 AM on 14 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2 2024
I recommend this paper....
World scientists’ warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00368504231201372?utm_source=nationaltribune&utm_medium=nationaltribune&utm_campaign=news
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John Mason at 03:31 AM on 13 January 2024At a glance - Plants cannot live on CO2 alone
Elevated CO2 has all sorts of effects, but I think you have read this at-a-glance with too much expectation. It's designed to be highly accessible and readers who want more will go on to Further Details, or possibly Intermediate or Advanced.
Grew Swiss Chard in big pots this year (with soil and 'organic standard' bagged compost) and had to really coax them, indeed requiring such a fertilizer as you describe. Some years ago I had a garden swap (for about 8 years) and there when I started out the 'soil' was sharp slate scree with a bit of interstitial leaf-mould. The solution was to dig out a decades old lambing barn (stratified dry sheep poo almost like chipboard!) to start things off - but also because I live near the coast, working a few tons of seaweed a year into the beds, after every Atlantic storm. That made a huge difference. In the best year some of the chard plants were close to a metre high! Never had to add anything else. Just one man's experience.....
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PSBaker at 20:27 PM on 12 January 2024At a glance - Plants cannot live on CO2 alone
I think this explainer needs a bit of work.
In the first place it’s not necessarily true that plants in containers struggle without expensive liquid feeds. Provided the mix of soil and organic matter is adequate, in a reasonable sized pot, most vegetables can be grown quite easily, with some additional fertilizer as required. This can be a simple NPK fertilizer dissolved in water and will cost a few pennies per application.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/vegetables/containers
https://www.rhs.org.uk/herbs/growing-bags
On the other hand, growing in some soils can be problematic, in some/many locations they may be sandy/compacted/acidic etc. and will need considerable work to improve.And while it’s true that atmospheric CO2 increases have led to ‘global greening’ which has helped ameliorate warming (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146296/global-green-up-slows-warming) trying to figure out how things will continue in the future turns out to be very complicated (https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/effects-of-rising-atmospheric-concentrations-of-carbon-13254108/ ; https://ripe.illinois.edu/press/press-releases/photosynthesis-unaffected-increasing-carbon-dioxide-channels-plant-membranes ; https://botany.one/2021/08/rising-carbon-dioxide-concentrations-are-making-the-worlds-most-destructive-toxic-weed-more-toxic/ )
Elevated CO2 has a strong impact on the other aspects of C3 plants' physiology, especially nutrient metabolism which can be attributed to:
• increase in the biomass of plant leaves results in a lower mineral concentration via a dilution effect,
• reduced transpiration cause reduced mass flow in the soil, and hindered nutrient translocation via the xylem sap,
• reduced photorespiration & production of NADH, leading to a decreased NO3 assimilation,
• disturbance in the regulations of root N uptake and signaling.
https://www.cell.com/trends/plant-science/fulltext/S1360-1385(22)00247-3 -
One Planet Only Forever at 13:33 PM on 12 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2 2024
Greenwashing and sustainable finance: an approach anchored in the philosophy of science, by Lagoarde-Ségot, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, presents an interesting evaluation of the ways that a business-finance focus, a belief that economic interests are the most important consideration, can be understood to systemically create harmfully distorted perceptions of reality, perceptions that really have no future (like the evaluations that significantly discounted the future costs of climate change, and did not fully account for the future impacts, to excuse more economic benefit obtained today by being more harmful).
It is fundamentally flawed to consider ‘economic financial interests’ to be more important, to govern over, social or environmental concerns (especially having economic finance interests govern over concerns that can be seen to be ‘costs to the economic system without appearing to maximize the benefit for investors’)
A related flaw is to be focused on what can be empirically observed and measured like:
- only what can be monetized ‘really matters’
- monetized items are valued even if the perceptions of value are distorted, unreliable, or mythical
- and if something can’t be monetized, or is not chosen to be monetized, it doesn’t really matter
The following quote is part of the Introduction
This paper employs a critical realist lens and contends that the mainstream finance paradigm is based on several flawed hypotheses regarding the nature of reality. These inaccurate ontological hypotheses frame controversies in finance within a specific worldview by shaping and limiting the range of acceptable questions, acceptable methods, and acceptable answers. They have far-reaching implications for greenwashing, to the extent that corporate and financial executives, as well as policymakers, see the world through the distorted lens of financial theory. For instance, corporate and financial executives typically consider environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings as another causal variable in their quest for short-term financial ‘materiality’ rather than adjusting their mission to tackle the social and ecological crisis. Similarly, sustainable finance policies lead to a further expansion of financial markets (through the increased commodification and financialization of nature) rather than embedding capital accumulation within planetary and social justice boundaries.
The last paragraph in the section headed “The (social) world is not flat” includes the following:
The science of business administration, where theories function as instruments of managerial control, clearly belongs to such a structure 5••, 25, 26. In particular, the mainstream belief that unfettered financial markets could reveal the ‘fundamental’ (monetary) value of the Earth System has accelerated the financialization of nature.
And the conclusion is as follows (highlighting the need for systemic change to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals – which requires ‘no successful greenwashing’.
Conclusions
This paper has made two claims. First, the growth of green financial markets2 in recent years does not necessarily imply that the economy will become ‘greener’. Green finance does not protect global commons but accelerates the inclusion of nature and society within financial logic, narratives, and interests. The mainstream finance paradigm is a powerful structure that accelerates the financialization of nature by providing a ‘software of the mind’ to corporate and finance actors as well as regulators. Senior professional investors indeed typically consider ESG simply as ‘another data set’ 1, 45, 46, 47.
As pointed out by Chiapello [49], the ‘green’ financial industry has been pushed by so many policy and corporate actors as a solution precisely because of its subordination to the mainstream paradigm. This entails considering nature and society as the next frontier for capital market development, when the current context requires us to turn the order upside-down and re-embed global capitalism within planetary boundaries [44].
Second, we have argued that the mainstream’s empirical and reductionist biases prevent financial economists from addressing sustainability issues, with unfortunate consequences for the design of sustainability policies. It follows that placing the financial sector under the control of society to hit the Sustainable Development Goals would imply a scientific revolution in finance. In this process, we contend that critical realism could provide a consistent metatheoretical alternative to the mainstream paradigm.
By approaching their study object through the lens of critical realism, progressive financial economists could inquire into the real processes by which global finance shapes social and ecological conditions; and gain a fresh understanding of how the latter retroact against economies and societies, at various scales. This research agenda project should then pave the way to identifying new global collective institutions and binding rules ensuring global prosperity and resilience in the 21st century.
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John Mason at 14:56 PM on 11 January 2024At a glance - Is the CO2 effect saturated?
When I first sat up and took notice of global warming was when I started reading palaeoclimate studies (a very long time ago now). As a geologist trained to read 'what rocks have to tell', I quickly realised we were heading straight for trouble. Big trouble.
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Just Dean at 09:44 AM on 11 January 2024At a glance - Is the CO2 effect saturated?
I think this is where data from paleoclimatology can help as well. Three recent studies have looked at the earth's temperature vs CO2 during the Cenozoic period, Rae et al., Honisch et al., and Tierney et al. . Each of those show that the temperature of ancient earth continues to rise as CO2 increases. As I understand it the first two are based solely on proxy data while the Tierney effort includes modeling to try and correlate the data geographically and temporally.
All of these are concerned with earth system sensitivities that include both short term climate responses plus slower feedback processes that can take millenia, e.g. growth and melting of continental ice sheets. Both Rae and Honisch include reference lines for 8 C / doubling of CO2. In both cases, almost all the data lie below those reference lines suggesting that 8 C / doubling is an upper bound or estimate of earth's equilibrium between temperature and CO2. Also notice that there quite is a bit of spread in the data.
In contrast, when Tierney et al. include modeling they get a much better correlation of T and CO2. They find that their data is best correlated with 8.2 C / doubling, r = 0.97. Again, this represents an equilibrium that can take millenia to achieve but does to my way of thinking represent "nature's equilibrium" between T and CO2.
In these comparisons, the researchers define changes in temperature relative to preindustrial conditions, CO2 = 280 ppm. For Tierney's correlation then on geological timescale, the temperature would increase by 8.2 C at 560 ppm. At our present value of 420 ppm there would be 3.7 C of apparent warming potential above our 1.1 C increase already achieved as of 2022, i.e., global warming in the pipeline if you will.
Bottom line, based on paleoclimatological data, there is no apparent saturation level of CO2.
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nigelj at 06:49 AM on 11 January 2024At a glance - Is the CO2 effect saturated?
The sceptics claim that the CO2 warming effect is already saturated or is close to being saturated is clearly false. It seems to originate with the assertion that the surface receives about 3.7 W/m2 more energy each time CO2 is doubled ie: a logarthmic curve. This means eventually it would take a huge volume of additional CO2 (presumably over a long time period) to add an extra 3.7W / m2. Which they suggest means the effect is essentially then saturated, but without specifying a precise number (how convenient of them).
I see that the article mentions that this assertion about a logarithmic relationship may have been proven false by He et al. 2023, (?) and it also depends on emissions trajectories and other factors, but assuming the logarithmic relationship is simplistically true a look at radiative forcing versus CO2 concentration below and a bit of maths and its obvious the warming effect is not saturated and we are not yet near saturation:
skepticalscience.com/why-global-warming-can-accelerate.html
My back of envelope maths: In 1960s CO2 was 320 ppm ppm so doubling would be 640 ppm at around roughly year 2100 assuming BAU emissions. This coincides with the IPCC warming projection of 3 - 5 degrees C by 2100.
The next doubling is from from 640 to 1280 is a larger volume of CO2 and would presumably take longer to around year 2300 assuming the same BAU CO2 growth trend and other things being equal. Projections of warming by the IPCC by 2300 are not surprisingly around 8 - 10 degress C for this further doubling of CO2. Such a quantity of CO2 is large but may possibly be feasible given reserves of fossil fuels and uncertainties arount that.
The next doubling from 1280 to 2560 would lead to something like 15 degrees C and is a huge volume of CO2 that would take many centuries and would almost certainly exhaust reserves of fossil fuels, and most probably well before 15 degrees is reached. We could say this is the point of saturation in a practical sense. Its of no comfort because we would have had at least 5 degrees of warming and probably more, and not even factoring in tipping points.
Someone check my maths its very rough, but the sceptics claims are clearly false and meaningless.
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Evan at 02:08 AM on 10 January 2024Scientific Consensus with Dr John Cook
Ben@1 and nigelj@2, I tend to agree with both of you, but would defer to someone with deeper knowledge of the IPCC than I have.
My understanding is that Ben is correct in terms of historical IPCC predictions, but that Nigel is correct in terms of the latest report, which now does include more extreme predictions than previously included.
But the other message that I keep hearing in videos and reading in text is that the climate is responding/changing faster than many climate scientists expected, and by my reading, this sentiment is not refleccted in the IPCC reports.
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nigelj at 05:04 AM on 9 January 2024Scientific Consensus with Dr John Cook
Ben Laycock @1
I disagree that the IPCC only include the most conservative estimates of warming and SLR. Firstly the most conservative estimates for warming are roughly 3.0 degrees C by 2100 at BAU (business as usual emissions) and on SLR are roughly 0.6 M this century. The IPCC sixth assesssment report also includes warming projections of up to 5 degrees C and and SLR projections of 1 - 2 metres this century ( which look very possible to me). So clearly the IPCC does not include only the "most conservative" estimates.
You can google the IPCC reports. They are free to download.
A small number of scientists like James Hansen have written studies with higher estimates of warming and SLR but they are not included as the IPCC presumably decided the science was not quite convincing enough. The IPCCs job is to review all the science and decide which is most credible. That also includes reviewing studies claiming the planet is about to enter a long cooling period. They dont include those because they lack any credibility.
However IMO the Summary for Policymakers could do a better job of highlighting the worst case scenarios and their implications.
Its true the IPCC do lean a little bit conservative on the science generally. However this is how science has worked for decades and its to help avoid mistakes and loss of credibility. It may be frustrating at times but the alternative sounds worse to me. Policy makers also presumably realise there is a certain conservative leaning or reticence and take that into account.
And remember there is nothing reassuring about SLR projections of up to 2 metres this century. This is obviously very serious and if anyone can't figure that out I doubt that a higher estimate of 3 metres would make much difference to them.
I agree that we have to be cautious interpreting the meaning of low possibility high impact events like 5 degrees warming this century or 2.0M SLR. Firstly as you say they can still happen. Secondly they are assigned a low possibility of occurence but that is probably a "conservative" leaning evaluation or probability. Thirdly the impacts are so incredibly serious that even although the possibility is low we need extreme caution and should therefore be mitigating the climate problem. There are many activities that have a low possibility of harm but very serious outcomes, that sensible people avoid like driving on worn tires that are just slightly below warrent of fitness standards.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:38 AM on 8 January 2024Cranky Uncle with Dr. John Cook
Ben Laycock, Some observations and feedback ...
The evidence appears to clearly indicate that it is incorrect to believe that "... every single government ... is ... blissfully unaware that economic growth is the primary driving force of the climate catastrophe."
There is enough evidence from the COP interactions, and so much more, to establish a consensus understanding (a legitimately justified 'common sense' as opposed to a harmfully misled developed 'common sense among a portion of the total population') that people wanting to benefit from harmful unsustainable developed perceptions of advancement, success and superiority are the fundamental problem, not just regarding climate change impacts.
The 'government representatives' acting for the benefit of harmful unjustified pursuers of benefit are likely 'well aware of how harmfully misleading they are being' when they fight against more rapid ending of fossil fuel use. Even the 1.5 C target limit of harm done was a harmful compromise. But, because of the unjustified success of harmful pursuers of personal benefit since 1990, the more justified compromise of 1.0 C limit of harmful impact was 'no longer an available option' in 2015.
As for the solution being 'crash the economy', in addition to the points made by Eclectic and Rob Honeycutt, I offer the following thoughts. I agree with crashing the economy if:
Crashing the economy is => Leadership actions to increase awareness and improve understanding of what is harmful and how people can be more helpful to others, especially to future generations.
That type of leadership would result in:
- a very rapid ending of harmful unsustainable developed aspects of the economy (stuff that should be excluded from measurements of economic success). The rapid ending would be assisted by leadership encouraging a reduction of unnecessary harmful activity, especially by the richest.
- a very rapid increase in the development of less harmful more sustainable economic activity (with the harmful impacts properly and fully subtracted so that there is no misunderstanding regarding the value or merit of an economic activity while harmful activities are cleared out of the system)
That 'crashing of those aspects of the economy' would be Good for the future of humanity. And it would most negatively affect the people who want to be more harmful and less helpful (also a Good Thing).
Of course, if the status quo powers continue to get their way, including being able to significantly compromise leadership actions, the harm suffered would most likely be severely experienced by those less powerful who do not deserve to be penalized - you know - the undeniable status quo history of humanity. And those less powerful 'easy to harm' people include the future generations of humanity (They have no vote, marketing, or legal power).
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:48 AM on 8 January 2024Climate news to watch in 2024
An additional point,
When comparing the results of actions by nations the 'history of per capita impacts by nation' should be presented along with the presentation of total national impacts. China's per capita impacts are still significantly lower than USA per capita. And that presentation would also highlight the impact risks of a nation like India developing up to the higher per capita levels 'the supposed more advanced nations are setting as the examples to be aspired to'.
Also, the national total and per capita impacts should include the impacts of all consumption in the nation and other actions that the population of the nation benefit from, especially the impacts of imported items. A nation should not be able to mislead about how harmful the actions of its population are by having the harm ignored or excused because it occurred outside their borders.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:33 AM on 8 January 2024CO2 limits will harm the economy
PollutionMonster,
Take as long as you need. I appreciate it will take some time. Learning by putting in the extra effort to read books (and full research reports, and magazine length articles) from sources that you learn are biased but are not significantly misleading is one of the recommendations by Timothy Snyder in On Tyranny. (Note: All presentations can be claimed to be biased, which includes a non-misleading bias towards increased awareness and improved understanding of what is harmful and how to be more helpful to others).
I will be interested to see your feedback regarding increased awareness and improvement of understanding on this issue. I am always open to improved understanding and better explanations based on all of the available evidence.
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Rob Honeycutt at 08:09 AM on 7 January 2024Cranky Uncle with Dr. John Cook
Ben... I think crashing the economy wouldn't be a wise approach to avoiding disaster. You can't rationally trade one form of human catastrophe for another. Crashing the economy would potentially be as bad or even worse than the path we're currently on.
I would note there are no researchers (that I am aware of) suggesting crashing the economy as a solution to the climate change crisis. My suggestion for you is to consider the idea that deployment of carbon-free energy is operating on a exponential scale. That could actually bring us in line with zero carbon goals, if we can achieve that. Probably the bigger concern is resource limitations to carry out exponential deployment of renewables.
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Eclectic at 08:07 AM on 7 January 2024Cranky Uncle with Dr. John Cook
Ben L @1&2 ,
you are very Droll. (Is that "plan D" ?)
If plan C = Crash the economy
and plan B = Blowing past 3 degrees
. . . do you not have a plan A = Acceptable political compromise?
or are you hell-bent on plan G . . . the Genghis-Khan method?
(Asking for a Friend.)
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Ben Laycock at 07:18 AM on 7 January 2024Cranky Uncle with Dr. John Cook
We must crash the economy!
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Ben Laycock at 07:17 AM on 7 January 2024Cranky Uncle with Dr. John Cook
I have collated some important climate data that might come in handy when trying to counteract disinformation.
It is not rocket science, but it is science.
As Cranky Uncle might say, it is just plain common sense.
Every single government in the whole world, bar none, is desperately trying to increase economic growth, blissfully unaware that economic growth is the primary driving force of the climate catastrophe. We point the finger at the evil fossil fuel merchants and their enablers in government, but they are just struggling to keep up with our insatiable demand for more stuff!
Since 1990 global clean energy generation has increased 1000 fold, but our emissions have been going up at the same time, by 60% since 1990. We have burnt more fossil fuels since we learnt about climate change than all the rest of history put together! Our emissions have been rising by about 10% every year since 1950, though the rate has slowed a bit lately, which is encouraging.
The reason they keep going up is because the global economy keeps growing. The economy grows by about 4% per anum. So clean energy must replace emissions at the same rate, just to break even. Clean energy generates 17% of our global energy needs. So to replace 4% of
CO2, it must increase by 18% every single year. If we are to achieve Zero Net Emissions by 2050 we must reduce our CO2 by another 4% p.a. every single year for nearly 30 years. That means increasing clean energy by another 18% p.a. So we must increase our clean energy by 36% every year. Last year we our clean energy went up 10%, a shortfall of 26%. So this year that 26% gets added onto this years target, bringing it up to 62%. Next year it will be 88%, and so on.
If you know anyone who thinks that is even remotely possible, please refer them to a psychiatrist!
There is only one solution to this predicament.Ben Laycock
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Ben Laycock at 07:12 AM on 7 January 2024Scientific Consensus with Dr John Cook
Whilst it is reasurring that the information in the IPCC reports is reached ia consensus, it can gie us a false sense of security because only the most conservative estimates are included. The most alarming possibilities are left out because they are deemed unlikely. So the possibility of global temperatures reaching an insufferable 4 degrees higher is not something we should be concerned about because it is not very likely to happen.... until it does!
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BaerbelW at 00:31 AM on 7 January 2024It's waste heat
Please note: a new basic version of this rebuttal was published on January 6, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
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PollutionMonster at 21:12 PM on 5 January 2024CO2 limits will harm the economy
@ One Planet Only Forever 123
Reading a bunch I am now using a reference management software called Zotero to try to keep track of everything, though I am still new and making mistakes. The Sks website can be difficult to navigate with so many articles with almost identifcal names and topics.
I am still investigating and understanding the sources you mentioned earlier the Taylor and Francis Group for example. I am also going through the all sources of the books you mentioned trying to read the primary source, often the books mention other books in their work cited.
I will get back when I am finished.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:20 AM on 4 January 2024Climate news to watch in 2024
Having read the entire article it is clear that the term 'pollution' regarding 'global heat-trapping' is implied to be an annual rate value. That 'short-hand' makes it less clear that the required end objective is the rapid ending of the ‘addition of global heat-trapping pollution’ with a 'now almost certain' need for increased unproductive corrective effort to be expended 'by others in the future' to 'remove excess pollution' and attempt to ‘repair climate change caused damages and adapt to the more harmful climatic future created by excess accumulated global heat-trapping pollution'.
However, the accumulated pollution is the continuing problem. And even the best actions by a Democrat controlled USA government are likely to be 'more harmful and less helpful than they could be' because the USA leadership is significantly compromised by the popularity and profitability of being more harmful, by protection of the incorrect and unsustainable developed perceptions of 'living a better life'.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:47 AM on 4 January 2024Climate news to watch in 2024
I have not finished reading the article. But the following statement triggered a need to comment.
"Despite all that bad news, many countries are making progress toward reducing their climate pollution, and the outlook for 2024 is encouraging. In fact, 2023 may turn out to be the year in which global heat-trapping pollution peaked and began to decline."
The first part of the statement is consistent with all the available evidence and is encouraging news.
The second part of the statement appears to be incorrectly over-optimistic. A more realistic statement would appear to be: In fact, 2023 may turn out to be the year in which the rate of increase of global heat-trapping pollution peaked and began to decline."
That revised statement is encouraging news. But it is not a certainty.
Improvement is occurring. But the the problem continues to get worse due to resistance of correction by people who have developed impressions of advancement and superiority based on unjustified and harmful over-consumption and the related unsustainable harmful desire for 'more personal benefit faster'.
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MA Rodger at 21:14 PM on 2 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2023
Just Dean @11,
I would not agree that the Holocene paper Osman et al (2021) co-authored by Tierney is the sole reason behind what has become the “Holocene temperature conundrum.” Other studies also found an absence of a Holocene Thermal Maximum, eg Kaufman et al (2020) or Bova et al (2021), or a very weak one, eg Kaufman & Broadman (2023), or regional differences, eg Cartapanis et al (2022).
Chen et al (2023) [ABSTRACT] characterises it as a model-proxy thing with these methods needing to sharpen their game if the conundrum is to be resolved.
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Eclectic at 09:38 AM on 2 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2023
Just Dean @11 :
Yes, the Osman study shows a slightly different "shape" to the subsequent millennia following the Holocene Optimum of (very roughly) 7,000 years ago. And yes, that is of innate interest, but it makes little difference with respect to the rocket-like rise of global temperature which is progressing during the current industrial era.
In golfing metaphor, it is the consideration of how past holes were played . . . compared with where the ball is sited right now ~ and what we need to do playing the ball right now.
With or without climate models, we know enough about the angle of the grass slope & the wind's strength/direction, to make a reasonable judgement on how to strike the ball. Lack of Will, is our problem.
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Just Dean at 07:26 AM on 2 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2023
Eclectic @10.
I have been following Dr. Tierney's work for sometime. I think Dr. Tierney's work is underappreciated. I think the combination of proxy data with modeling is cutting edge for paleoclimatogy. For instance, I think her paper in Nature with Osman may ultimately redefine the shape of the "hockey stick," REF .
Also, look at the quality of the fit for the Cenzoic age, this research really might start to constrain the climate models for predicting future temperatures for different emission scenarios.
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Eclectic at 05:14 AM on 2 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2023
Just Dean @9 :
Thanks for the J.Tierney video reference [not yet viewed by me].
I note the name Osman listed in the video credits, and also note that the video is marked as having had 135 views in 2 months. So, not yet setting the the world on fire [apologies to Secretary-General Guterres of the U.N.].
Just Dean ~ broadly speaking, the paleo record conforms with the present-day understanding of the climatic actions of CO2. Is there a special point that you are wishing to make, regarding the paleo climate?
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Just Dean at 01:24 AM on 2 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2023
I am also leery of single author papers.
If you are interested in the some of the latest thinking in correlations between ancient CO2 and T, I recommend this presentation by Dr. Jessica Tierney, REF .
If you are interested in just the bottom line, you can skip to the time marker around an hour into the presentation. If you look at her plot of GMST vs CO2 (ppmv) introduced at 1:04:08, you might imagine how if you wanted to play fast and loose with the data and do some cherrypicking you could make the correlation look fairly poor.
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Wol at 15:08 PM on 1 January 2024I drove 6,000 miles in an EV. Here’s what I learned
I took about a couple of minutes of that video.
The quantity of FUD regarding EVs is astonishing until you consider what is going to happen to the FF industries in just a few years and how much money is being pushed into the doubt industry.
I've no real skin in the game - no children - but what looks like the future isn't pretty so my investment in an EV three years ago is probably altruistic!
Take care, y'all and HNY!
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:59 PM on 1 January 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2023
If I'm not mistaken, WJ Davis' PhD and primary area of research is sports physiology.
