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Comments 85301 to 85350:
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KR at 01:45 AM on 19 May 2011Sea level rise is exaggerated
Jay - Googling "average ocean depth", as I noted earlier, provides the average depth of 3790 meters in the summary of the first link.Response:[DB] Fixed link.
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JMurphy at 01:45 AM on 19 May 2011Carter Confusion #1: Anthropogenic Warming
Carter is a polemical idealogue first and foremost, and a scientist (just about) last. He should be ashamed of himself but is probably proud of his disseminations. -
Paul D at 01:41 AM on 19 May 2011Carter Confusion #1: Anthropogenic Warming
$100 billion sounds like a fantasy figure plucked from the ether. Does Carter believe that nothing should be spent on climate research? Or does he believe that the results should be neutral and effectively show nothing, as if a god were magically balancing things? -
Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. at 01:25 AM on 19 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Okay Arch, somebody earlier said "Fully melted Antarctic and Greenland ice caps would raise sea levels by 80 meters, according to the USGS. " That number seems to be way too high to me so I want to know the global average sea level depth and calculate what percentage average sea level would rise. Somebody also said this number is easy to come by, I've been googling and don't see it. There is also no hard numbers for total number of glaciers, globally. -
Stephen Baines at 01:24 AM on 19 May 2011Temp record is unreliable
Joe RG Those changes, besides being very small, do not increase the appearance of global warming in the data set. You have to pay attention to the timing. The diffs in temp anomalies are similar for the most important part of the record from 1950 and on, and the increase in late data is matched by an increase in very early data. If you want to do a proper comparison that prvides the correct context, you should compare the NCDC records on the same graph before and after the corrections. You should also calculate the temp change since the 70s in the two data sets - that's the period when we think GHG forcing has become dominant. When I do the latter in excel, very quickly. I get a 0.164C/decade in the first and 0.166/decade in the second. Those are within 1% of each other and certainly within the error in the data. It would take not just 10, but 100 such revisions (all in the same direction) to produce anything near the temp trend apparent in the record. Your doubts are unfounded, and the insinuation unnecessary. -
Albatross at 01:15 AM on 19 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
Arkadiusz @36, "Furthermore, please do not ignore the most important sentences - with my commentary: “... no big differences in the greenness level [!] of these forests between drought and non-drought years ...” I will address this confusion when I have some time. You are ignoring the die back issue....more later. Feeley was a field study, real world data-- so I have no idea what you are trying to say.Moderator Response: Fixed unclosed HTML tag -
CBDunkerson at 01:13 AM on 19 May 2011Temp record is unreliable
JoeRG wrote: "It is not apparent why the first half of the last century should have been overestimated while the rest until now should have been underestimated." You do realize that the 'change' in the trendline is 0.0002 C per year, right? If you find that to "really create doubts" it doesn't seem like this has anything to do with logic or reality. The variation between the old and new results is a tiny fraction of the stated margin of error and leaves these anomalies still in close agreement with the GISS, NASA, UAH, RSS, and other data sets. -
arch stanton at 01:12 AM on 19 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
I missed a response… Doctor - what would be the usefulness of calculating the sea level rise as a percentage of average sea depth? -
Albatross at 01:11 AM on 19 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
Ken @112, Stop misrepresenting me re Dyson....the way you quoted those phrases (first one yours, second one mine) makes it look like am am of the opinion that Dyson is "dishonest and disingenuous", which is not true. I was, of course, referring to a "skeptic" who was misrepresenting his stance on the theory of AGW, you. And you doing that latest trick just supports my claim. The fact remains the slope of the line increases (compare to that for 0-700 m) when one includes OHC down to 2000 m. You asked, you got an answer, yet you will not accept it. That is not 'skepticism', that is ideology Ken. And Josh said "most", not "all"-- Trenberth's figure is consistent with that. Now please go and argue strawmen somewhere else. And again, please provide some context--what the does this all have to do with Lindzen's illusion about the warming arising from internal variability? Re your question to Chris: "So you tell me how the heat is getting from the surface down to 2000m and below that." I am emailing a colleague (an oceanographer) to ask him about that today. -
Byron Smith at 01:09 AM on 19 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Warming Indicators: The Motion Picture Yes please. That would be excellent. -
arch stanton at 01:05 AM on 19 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Adelady (13), I like suspense too, but the question was ambiguous, and no matter how I interpret it, the answer is irrelevant when judging the (human) impact of sea level rise. The doctor has dug himself into a hole (average depth = deep). -
Charlie A at 00:58 AM on 19 May 2011Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
Climate Scientist Fears His "Wedges" Made It Seem Too Easy is a recent article in National Geographic in which Robert Socolow, one of the two authors of the "wedge" paper, discusses how his work has been received and used. ""The job went from impossible to easy" in part because of the wedges theory. "I was part of that.""Response:[dana1981] Socolow clarifies his comments
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JoeRG at 00:31 AM on 19 May 2011Temp record is unreliable
What I did is just to download the data of version 2 and of version 3, copy them in an Excel sheet (sorry for misspelling above), compared them and made a graphical output. As scientific as a simple comparison can be. I had used the original (NCDC) data to show that there is an odd behaviour when making the recent update of data and methods. OK, I should have linked these data in the comments before. Sorry for that. The summary of the changes that you mentioned does not explain the behavior of the corrections at all. It is not apparent why the first half of the last century should have been overestimated while the rest until now should have been underestimated. Even if one would follow the statements, the behavior in general or the reason are quite unclear. This, of course, is odd and it really creates doubts. It is nearly impossible for an outstanding to follow these procedures, even if there are summaries. But this would be an off-topic question about scientific transparency. If you look on top and read the question of this topic, my answer would be (and i've tried to show it with actual data) "there are doubts, indeed". But I wonder how you can accuse me to make "insinuations" although the data speak a very clear tongue.Moderator Response: [e] Please review the advanced version of this post. The raw data has been analyzed and plotted several different ways by several different organizations and citizen scientists. The result is always the same. Implying wrongdoing simply because you do not understand one of these reconstructions is not a valid scientific argument and is a violation of this site's comment policy. -
Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. at 00:23 AM on 19 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
I've just checked some of these links people have posted and it appears somebody else is using my same name. I have never heard of a Dr. Shooshmon. The reason I was asking about average global sea level in meters is because I wanted to compare estimated sea level rise rates based on average global sea level and also based on percentage of water glaciers in question of melting hold.Response:[DB] This is off-topic for this thread.
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Arkadiusz Semczyszak at 23:56 PM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
@Albatros Recent research has found that the ITCZ can migrate up to 5 degrees - were doing it, and past from natural causes . One of the most recent works says: “Specifically, our data indicate that the ITCZ was 500 km closer to the equator during the LIA than it is today and that it was south of its present position (7 degN) for the last 1,000 years.” You ignored the results from field studies by Feeley ... Ppaper by Feeley, it is typical of Chery Picking - typical, because it is "not reproducible." Paper Smith, 2011. - an analysis recently published a large number of papers - on the impact of extreme climatic phenomena on productivity and 37 other parameters of the ecosystems - in the world. It is “off topic”? All you have demonstrated is that large variations in the degree of biomass burning ... - No. I just wanted to say that biomass burning - SH - is definitely - a record - the lowest in 650 years ... ... of the poor in the reference - the paper Lewis et al., 2011., does not speak. Furthermore, please do not ignore the most important sentences - with my commentary: “... no big differences in the greenness level [!] of these forests between drought and non-drought years ...” -
Ken Lambert at 23:50 PM on 18 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
chris #108 Trying to batter me with Douglass/Knox and their alleged faults elsewhere is a distraction from the numbers which you will not debate. "D/K are obviously having great fun with their very late second careers as climate contrarians; but your reliance on them for info on climate-related matters is misplaced…" I mentioned their paper and its quotation of Argo analyses from data by Willis and others. There are 5 or 6 other analyses which show no or little heat gain in the 0-700m layers. We have as far as I know only one Argo analysis 0-2000m from VS. BP #107 has suggested "Thermohaline downwelling itself does not transfer any heat into the abyss, it removes heat from there." So you tell me how the heat is getting from the surface down to 2000m and below that. -
Ken Lambert at 23:37 PM on 18 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
Albatross #109 You are trying hard for a small win Albatross - how about - "Dyson does not subscribe to alarmist AGW." "That is, IMO, dishonest and disingenuous." BTW, allegations of dishonesty are banned under the comments policy. Are you immune from moderation Albatross? Trenberth 2010: "However, independent analysis8 of the full-depth Argo floats for 2003 to 2008 suggests that the 6-year heat-content increase is 0.77 ± 0.11 W m−2 for the global ocean or 0.54 W m−2 for the entire Earth, indicating that substantial warming may be taking place below the upper 700 m." I think you will find that Dr Trenberth is quoting the von Schukmann analysis from September 2009, which is the only 0-2000m Argo analysis published as far as I know. BP raised serious questions about the bumps in the VS global chart and the impossible rates of heat transfer involved. I asked Dr Trenberth about some aspects of the VS paper on 10FEB2010, and at that date he had not read it. Later he started quoting it in correspondence with Dr Pielke, published on his blog. -
Stephen Baines at 23:37 PM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
@Camburn 32 "you can have nothing of consequence above ground unless supported by solid root structures. " Of course the same could be said in reverse as well, no roots without shoots. Moreover, under a given set of conditions, a plant which apportions a larger fraction of their biomass to root structures must, by necessity, grow slower because their metabolic costs increase relative to their photosynthetic rates. Because of this tradeoff, the root to shoot ratio is pretty constrained for a given biome. In the Amazon (and most wet tropical forests), belowground typically is 25% of above ground, roughly speaking. And there isn't a lot of dead soil carbon as it is quickly decomposed, except in consistently saturated soils. Of course if it gets drier, the root to shoot ratio will increase as plants try to access more water, but that will only happen because root biomass will decrease a little less than above ground biomass. IOW, the below ground biomass will not compensate for the loss of above ground biomass as climate dries in the Amazon. -
Ken Lambert at 23:20 PM on 18 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
BP #107 A useful contribution BP. I was listening to a radio interview with Josh Willis, and he made the point that most of the heat transfer action was in the top 10-20% of the oceans. With an average depth of 3700m - that puts it in the 0-700m layers. Maybe Albatross and Chris could also benefit from your contribution. -
JoeRG at 22:03 PM on 18 May 2011Temp record is unreliable
Yes, I agree with you regarding the need of progress. But if the progress looks like this, it is a bit odd. I made it by myself with a simple Excess table which compares the GHCN-M version 2 with the version 3 regarding the yearly anomalies. And it looks ... strange.Response:[DB] This is a science-based website. Merely attaching an "odd" or "strange" appellation/connotation to something adds nothing positive to the dialogue. If you have constructive criticism of the changes you reference you will need to perform a more robust analysis to back up your "insinuations" (which veer into Comment Policy violation status...).
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sime at 21:11 PM on 18 May 2011National Academy of Sciences on Climate Risk Management
Sailrick @ 12 "If I'm not mistaken, it is mostly limited to the... England... " I'm not sure I agree with England as in the UK being in that category. The UK is not in general terms in denial about climate change. With 83% of the UK public apparently viewing climate change as a current or imminent threat http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/31/public-belief-climate-change Add to that the fact that yesterday 17/05/2011 "Britain pledged to cut carbon pollution in half by 2025 (from 1990 levels)" OK so the devil is in the detail, but that is as the NY Times put it "...A striking example of a government committing to big environmental initiatives while also pursuing austerity measures.” http://climateprogress.org/2011/05/17/britain-pledges-to-cut-carbon-pollution-in-half-by-2025/ As for Scotland the first minister Alex Salmond does not give a hoot about what people say is possible or not and simply ignores the nay sayers and is now now comitting the Scottish to "generating the equivalent of 100 per cent of Scotland’s own electricity demand from renewable resources by 2020" http://www.newenergyworldnetwork.com/renewable-energy-news/by-technology/water/scotland-reinforces-100-renewables-by-2020.html The UK is not in any way either in or on the US GOP / Tea party style "road to doom" denial train, despite what the disinformers would have you believe.Response:[DB] Hot-linked URLs.
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JMurphy at 20:02 PM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Southwing wrote : "Dear folks, Dr. Jay is rather obviously a "seeker after truth" troll. Back to the topic, please." I'm not convinced, especially after this comment from a Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd over on the DeepClimate thread about Wegman's current difficulties : Whatever at least this Wegman guy didn’t try to make a fake graph... -
JoeRG at 19:20 PM on 18 May 2011Temp record is unreliable
With May 2 the NCDC changed the dataset and calculation. This change has a very strange effect. The NCDC uses the period of 1901-2000 as reference. With the "correction" (if one really will call it this way) the anomalies from beginning of the reference (1901) until the mid 50th are lowered while all other following values rised. Of course, not in significant ranges. But having this three or four times happened we will see differences to previous calculations in a significant range of approx. 0.1K. So the question arises again: are the data reliable?Response:[DB] Hey, progress happens. You're not against improvements to increase accuracy, right? After all, insinuations of something nefarious are beneath us...especially when the details of the change are made transparent, as you note.
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Rob Painting at 18:36 PM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
Adelady - a vast amount of carbon is stored underground. A multitude of factors lead to drying of the forest. I'll get to that eventually. Camburn- I think it is very safe to say that there are published papers showing a large climatic variation in the Amazon in times past Perhaps not as large as many readers may think. IIRC, during the ice ages for instance, mean annual temperature in the Amazon is thought to have fallen only 1-2°C, and this was mainly due to frequent outbursts of friagems being channeled up the Andes into the Amazon. Were it not for that, temps would have been closer to modern day. And, of course, when it was too dry in South America in the deep past, the Amazon didn't exist at all -
Derek B at 17:44 PM on 18 May 2011Greenhouse effect has been falsified
I'm seeing references to a paper by a Joseph Postma, also denying any greenhouse effect. His argument boils down to this: 1. Thermodynamics says the effective black body temperature of the earth is -18C, and this is matched by observation from space. 2. We observe much balmier temperatures at the earth's surface in practice. 3. The Greenhouse Theory says the difference is down to the greenhouse effect. 4. Postma observes that the temperature of -18C occurs at 5km altitude: "This altitude is found at about 5km in height above the ground surface by observation. " 5. He calculates from more thermodynamic theory (the adiabatic lapse rate) that we should therefore expect the temperature at the surface of the earth to be 14.5C. Voila! No need for a greenhouse effect. The blunder, of course, is that he offers no explanation for the -18C line being at 5km. And the explanation is ... the greenhouse effect! He also makes this confusion on thermodynamics, which I've seen elsewhere: "something which is cool cannot transfer heat to something which is warm". Clearly he is thinking of net transfer, but that's not how he uses this principle. -
Paul D at 17:20 PM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Dr Jay: "And before anybody goes after me for the question of the empirical evidence for the melting ice caps, I'm just trying to figure out if anyone knows how much the sea level will rise because that is the danger to humans, correct?" Not exactly. Reducing the area covered by glaciers has a number of impacts. 1. Changes to fresh water and hydro-electric schemes. 2. Increased ice loss further in land (Greenland, Antarctica), which reduces albedo, increasing the warming etc. 3. Probably changes in weather patterns, possibly water circulation to. 4. Sea level increases due to land based ice dumping into the seas. 5. Changes in wildlife and migration, impacts on food chain etc. -
adelady at 16:44 PM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
Camburn - "...you can have nothing of consequence above ground unless supported by solid root structures." But I thought the big issue with tropical forests was that there is little to no 'solid root structure' below ground. Practically the whole of the growth, carbon, nutrient cycles occur above ground which is why clear felling and/ or burning such forests depletes those soils so much more quickly and completely than soils in other regions. -
Michael Hauber at 15:36 PM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
Tamino charted averages over a 5 year period. To get a flat spot within a rising trend on such a graph you need more than 10 years of flat data so that two complete 5 year periods give the same average. Using a 5 year moving average is a different calculation and requires more than 5 years of flat data to get a flat spot in a rising trend. You use a charting method that is twice as sensitive to noise as the chart that Tamino uses, and then accuse Tamino's chart of being bogus. The chart you use which is more sensitive to noise also picks up a flat spot just after 1990. The trend then resumed its upward climb. Why would we expect the current flat spot to be any different? -
scaddenp at 14:45 PM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Bern, see the first link at RealClimate (Moderators comment) and then this one where the commentator "Jay Cadbury" explains why he changed name from "Dr Shooshmon". Whether this is the same "jay Cadbury" and "Dr Shooshmon" as at Realclimate and Blackboard cannot of course be verified. However the "concern troll" type posts are pretty similar. -
JoeRG at 14:39 PM on 18 May 2011It's cosmic rays
A new study could heat up the discussion again, I think. -
Bern at 13:51 PM on 18 May 2011Book reviews of Climate Change Denial
marcusbondi: actually, if the book succeeds in opening a few eyes to the science, then it may end up saving far, far more carbon than it cost to print & ship a few thousand copies... Speaking of which: if I may ask, purely out of curiosity, what was the first edition print run? -
Bern at 13:48 PM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
scaddenp: I presume the folks at Realclimate had some evidence that those IDs were one and the same, in which case it does seem some sock puppetry is going on. It's a harsh accusation to make against a commenter, so I'd prefer if there were some evidence (I think that it'd need IP logs or some such, at the very least). If they *are* the same, then that Blackboard thread is quite amusing... There does seem to be an increased incidence, lately, of "say it loud, say it often" posts early in threads on here, repeating arguments that have already been debunked so many times it's not funny. I presume John & the moderators here have their work cut out for them dealing with this kind of stuff... for example, at a quick glance I didn't see a single comment for this article that was on-topic! (and they can feel free to delete this post, too, as it's thoroughly off-topic!) -
Camburn at 13:30 PM on 18 May 2011Drought in the Amazon: A death spiral? (part 1:seasons)
I think it is very safe to say that there are published papers showing a large climatic variation in the Amazon in times past. The below ground productivity is very important to this topic. I will say it simply, you can have nothing of consequence above ground unless supported by solid root structures. -
Marcus at 13:22 PM on 18 May 2011National Academy of Sciences on Climate Risk Management
"What is clear and irrefutable is that the [academy's] proposals to address climate change would impose massive costs without meaningful benefits." What I love about this claim is the number of ways we can mitigate CO2 emissions *without* imposing massive costs-& with a number of side-benefits aside from addressing climate change. For example, I worked out that the average peak-time commuter burns about 100L of petrol just in idling. This amounts to almost 250kg of CO2 per commuter per year. Even if we're talking only 1 million commuters, that's still 250,000t of CO2 per year-just from people wasting their time in traffic jams. Yet Sen. Inhofe would have us believe that eliminating these traffic jams would be too costly & of no benefit. Well, it certainly would be costly to the oil industry, who'll be selling 100L less petrol per car, per year. Anyway, sorry if this is off-topic, but I really felt the need to point out, again, how out of touch the likes of Abbott & Inhofe actually are. -
sailrick at 11:40 AM on 18 May 2011National Academy of Sciences on Climate Risk Management
@1. Badgersouth "I suspect that the same situation exists in many other countries of the world. " If I'm not mistaken, it is mostly limited to the U.S., Canada, Australia, England and I guess New Zealand (all English speaking). It has been, at least in part, intentionally spread to these countries by organizations like CEI. "The roots of Australia’s climate denial: how the IPA almost single handedly kicked it off" "Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) in 1996, which began strategising to develop the Australian arm of their campaign to stop the Kyoto Protocol, which negotiators were just one year away from concluding" http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com/2010/06/17/the-roots-of-australias-climate-denial-how-the-ipa-almost-singly-handedly-kicked-it-off/ And, Pat Michaels, Robert Balling and Fred Singer helped found the skeptic organization European Science and Envionment Forum, (ESEF) in 1996. @10. adelady Reporters, journalists, talk show hosts and such need the phone apps too. -
marcusbondi at 11:22 AM on 18 May 2011Book reviews of Climate Change Denial
Why do you keep deleting my posts? What are you scared of? Why won't you reply to my question as to why you chose to publish a book on warming that will create more carbon than it saves, and which could easily be put online, for the immediate benfeit of all? ( - Inflammatory snipped- )?Response:[DB] Your first comment was deleted due to being off-topic for the thread you posted it on. The second comment was deleted due to violations of the Comments Policy (all-caps usage, inflammatory tone).
If you cannot afford a copy why not ask your local library to stock one for you?
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scaddenp at 11:08 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
See similar pattern in posts from Jay (aka Dr "Dr. Shooshmon) on Realclimate and Blackboard. Assuming the same person of course (only RC noticed that he was using same posting name), then this comment and followings is quite funny. -
Stephen Baines at 10:46 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
"Perhaps you need to be more skeptical about what Tamino posts." Perhaps you should address him yourself before casting aspersions in public, indirect though they be. That would be the collegial thing to do... -
SouthWing at 10:40 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Dear folks, Dr. Jay is rather obviously a "seeker after truth" troll. Back to the topic, please. -
Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
Charlie A > How does one compute a 5 year average centered on 2010? He didn't, read the post: "And for some of these data the latest 5-year period is incomplete, which will make the noise even bigger and increase the chance of accidentally contradicting the trend." -
adelady at 10:00 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
arch, I like a little irrelevant mystery occasionally. We can stand a bit of delicious suspense for a while. Anyhoo. It's good to see people not just using the materials here but developing them as teaching and presentation tools. I reckon in another 6-12 months the combination of the visual tools with the phone apps will make a handy package for any community, church or school wanting to DIY a discussion or learning group. -
Charlie A at 09:55 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
DB -- even your further explanation about the plots you posted is incorrect. How does one compute a 5 year average centered on 2010? Even a casual glance at the graph just above that, Tamino's version of annual OHC shows that the 5 year smooth graph is bogus. The most current data is available at NODC. Annual Global OHC Quarterly Global OHC Looking at the quarterly data you can see the change in standard deviation of the measurements around 2003, as the Argo network came online in force. Also on the graph below is a 21 quarter (63 month or 5.25 year smooth.) It doesn't look like the Tamino graph, does it. Doing a 5 year moving average on the annual graph results in essentially the same graph. Perhaps you need to be more skeptical about what Tamino posts.
Response:[DB] If you have the temerity and feel the need to tell a world-class professional time-series analyst that you know better than he...well, I'm hardly of a mind to talk you out of what will be an interesting learning experience for all. You have the proper thread over at Open Mind to post your correction on, so I expect to read said corrective effort there forthwith.
In the meantime I'm placing my confidence in that same professional who has already proven his knowledge and understanding of climate science beyond that posted by the majority here (and yes, that includes myself).
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Michael Hauber at 09:41 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
'all the data BEFORE 2003 is not forecast by any model' Wrong. There were climate models before 2003. The earliest climate models that ran on computers that I have heard about were around in the late 70s. They predicted roughly the same sensitivity to Co2 as the models today do. Not sure when the first model runs with ocean heat content were, but I doubt it was in 2003. -
arch stanton at 07:49 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Les (8), I agree with you. I hope the doctor returns to inform us of its relevance. -
mspelto at 07:07 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Dr Jay: We have three lines of measurement for glaciers. The WGMS reports glaciers where people with boots on the ground actually make measurements of glacier change annually. Typically this is mass balance of about 100 glaciers and terminus change on 400-500 glaciers. I measure 10 glaciers for mass balance and report all of these. This does not include glaciers where retreat is measured periodically, I measure terminus change on 60 glaciers, but only report about 10 that I examine annually. Most like Ptarmigan Ridge Glacier I do not as I visit them less frequently. Today we can also map the changes in area and hence terminus change using satellite imagery as well as thickness, these are not reported to the WGMS yet. The number that are tracked in this way is in the many thousands and these, take a look at the Colonia Glacier or Hariot Glacier for example, with the detailed terminus maps from satellite images. As we have done this it has confirmed that the WGMS sample is quite representative. -
scaddenp at 06:21 AM on 18 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
Actually, is angusmac trying to imply that since he thinks scenario C is a good fit for actual temperature then the forcings are actually close to scenario C??? -
KR at 05:56 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
Gah - *lots of data* in the previous post -
KR at 05:55 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
les - It's a bit surprising. I started to get the answer to that halfway through typing "average ocean depth" into Google. Jay - The information about sea rise versus ice melt is also a Google answer. Lots data is out there, you just have to look a bit. -
les at 05:51 AM on 18 May 2011Another animated version of the Warming Indicators Powerpoint
7 - Jay "what is the global average sea level, in meters please, if you could." I'm scoring that as the oddest question ever asked on SkS.Moderator Response: (DB) My initial thought was it was a snipe hunt; regardless of units, sea level is normally a base referent and is set as zero. -
dana1981 at 04:51 AM on 18 May 2011Is the CRU the 'principal source' of climate change projections?
nanjo - actually you called it "Lau". Funny, I had a typo in typing your typo. As for the rest of your comment, as DB suggests, you really ought to learn more about models. First of all, hindcasting is an important part of gauging the accuracy of a model (if it can't match the past, then it's not accurate). Secondly, the data matches the linear extrapolation of the model after 2003 pretty darn well, on average. As for "theorizes", that's the word I want to use because it's the correct term ("assume" is wrong).
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