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Comments 86901 to 86950:

86901. RSVP at 05:31 AM on 2 May 2011
       Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
       muoncounter 415 Interestingly, the equation you provide for voltage resembles the heat formula q = mC deltaT, which when turned around demonstrates how voltage can be likened to temperature such that deltaT = q/mC. As you can see, for a given energy q, the change in temperature is directly related to specific heat and mass. So the detection of a large temperature change can be relatively meaningless if it has to do with heating of small masses.
86902. mspelto at 05:07 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       Tenney it worked yesterday, but no luck now. The paper is also at Tedesco et al (2011). Of interest is also the increased intensity of melt, which goes beyond mere extent. A paper in review van den Broeke et al (2011) on "The seasonal cycle and interannual variability of surface energy balance and melt in the ablation zone of the west Greenland ice sheet", focuses on this in Figure 4. Note the exceptional 10 day periods of melt that the authors are concerned will become more widespread. This paper also highlights the extent of the ongoing fieldwork that is shedding light on Greenland melt that the paper in question here does not, there is no new data or insights offered. Also note the draft paper by Mernild et al (2011) , scroll down to Feb. 4, referenced herein responded to 4 separate reviews (including mine), in 15 comments before publication.
86903. RW1 at 05:00 AM on 2 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #2: Lindzen vs. Hansen - the Sleek Veneer of the 1980s
       The global temperature is already back to what it was over 30 years ago in 1980. Virtually the entire trend was wiped out in one year. This is fundamentally the problem with this. Without the two large El Ninos, there wouldn't even be a much of warming trend at all. Even a 0.3 C warming is ant crumbs - you couldn't even feel that on your skin.
       Moderator Response: [DB] Fixed text. BTW, the Lower troposphere isn't necessarily the best temp record (or even UAH among satellite records, either); GISS LOTI probably is best overall. Anyway, UAH LT since 1979: GISS LOTI: Yup, no problem.
86904. johnd at 04:10 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       johnd at 04:06 AM, to clarify, the "he" in "that he would then be unaware" is of course Dr.Box.
86905. johnd at 04:06 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       How many people were asked to review the paper and what were the considerations of the other reviewers? This should be known before passing judgment. I take it that by declining the invitation to re-review the paper, that he would then be unaware of any changes the authors may have made, creating a situation that his initial review may not be still relevant, thus excluding himself from the process. The publishers generally would be the only ones able to evaluate and balance the worth of each reviewer, obviously having to risk someone getting their nose out of joint if there happened to be divergent views.
86906. Tenney Naumer at 03:42 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       WheelsOC, those faux "think" tanks have no credibility at all.
86907. WheelsOC at 03:35 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       About halfway through the explanation of the paper, I wondered if "Michaels" wasn't in fact Pat Michaels. Clicking the link to read the abstract confirmed it. For what it's worth, Knappenberger also collaborates with Michaels on their think-tank's climate contrarian blog, World Climate Report. Both of them also find their way into the "experts" listings of other right-wing think-tanks like the George C. Marshall Institute (along with Frauenfeld). Writing a paper like this and refusing to update it in the face of timely and relevant data at the behest of reviewers should remind us to question the credibility of such organizations, who rely so heavily on experts like these to sway public policy.
86908. newcrusader at 03:35 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       “… the fundamental issue is linearity versus non-linearity. Hansen argues that amplifying feedbacks make ice-sheet disintegration necessarily highly non-linear. In a non-linear problem, the most relevant number for projecting sea level rise is the doubling time for the rate of mass loss. Hansen suggested that a 10-year doubling time was plausible, pointing out that such a doubling time from a base of 1 mm per year ice sheet contribution to sea level in the decade 2005-2015 would lead to a cumulative 5-metre sea-level rise by 2095. “ Hansen repeats his view, first published in 2007 but widely ignored, that a 5-metre sea-level rise is possible. In fact, recent research by Blancon et al published in Nature in 2009, examining the paleoclimate record, shows sea-level rises of 3 metres in 50 years due to the rapid melting of ice sheets 123,000 years ago in the Eemian, when the energy imbalance in the climate system was less than that to which we are now subjecting the planet.
86909. Tenney Naumer at 03:27 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       Excellent post! However, both links to the Tedesco paper are not working.
       Moderator Response: [muoncounter] That was a pre-publication version. Try the final pdf.
86910. muoncounter at 03:16 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       Can you imagine: Insurance companies leading the way on climate change concern? From Will climate change alter liability risks? On one issue the experts are in agreement: Anthropogenic climate change will have an impact on the environment, society, and the economy. A subject that has not yet received much attention, however, is: How will climate change alter the field of liability insurance? Coming soon to a theater near you: Clash of the Titans 3 - Oil industry vs Insurance industry!
86911. JMurphy at 03:11 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       mozart wrote : "What is indisputable is there is a gradual warming since 1820. The cause is in dispute." Really ? Would you care to define "gradual" and give what you believe the cause to be - with proof, of course. mozart wrote : "But it's odd that the "rising sea levels" have not had any effect on ocean front property prices. It seems the market, distilling all the information available, is not particularly worried." What's odd is that you can bring up the housing market as an example of...well, are you trying to use it to disprove sea-level rise or what ? As for "ocean front property prices", are you referring to them all, or just some in particular - I believe there may be some in Japan going cheap. Do you have any figures ? Ultimately, though, could it be true that property prices operate in a bubble which has little firm basis in the real world ? Surely that would lead to record foreclosures...
86912. Tom Dayton at 03:01 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       mozart, companies that insure ocean front property are in fact very worried.
86913. Bob Lacatena at 02:58 AM on 2 May 2011
       How climate change deniers led me to set up Skeptical Science website
       46, Everyone, Ken said:

       Do you seriously think that 'scientists' who have spent careers...

       Once again, he denigrates scientists, first through the simple act of putting the word in quotes, implying that they aren't actual scientists. Then he maligns them by implying that they'd wish ill on their fellow man just to maintain adherence to current climate theory. He then follows by implying that an understanding of current climate science is a "belief," as if it's an optional choice of faith, rather than a reasoned understanding of the science. This is probably the crux of Ken's problem, and why he gets so much wrong. His efforts to do so are clearly handicapped by his own preset desire to arrive at a chosen result. He even admits to this when he says:

       it might not be there..

       He doesn't know. It's just a possibility, and one that he'll wager on because he hasn't considered the rather deep and detailed science which reasons that it should be there and almost certainly is... it will be shocking if it's not. But for him, it's only a short step to go from "it might not be there" to closing his eyes and insisting that it isn't there, even though all of the evidence says that it is. It's climate change denial in a well wrapped package, with a nice, shiny bow. The net result is that his own position is founded on a combination of ignoring some of the evidence in order to reach a conclusion which matches his chosen belief... then he attributes that same approach to everyone else, including all of the dedicated, educated, and hard working climate scientists, and the people who have taken the time to review and understand all of the science and all of the evidence.
86914. mozart at 02:45 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       What is indisputable is there is a gradual warming since 1820. The cause is in dispute. But it's odd that the "rising sea levels" have not had any effect on ocean front property prices. It seems the market, distilling all the information available, is not particularly worried.
       Response:

       [DB] "What is indisputable is there is a gradual warming since 1820."

       Actually, while the first part of your "warming since 1820" may have been gradual, in reality the warming since about 1980 is nearly unprecedented in the paleo record.

       "The cause is in dispute."

       Not by those who have taken the time to educate themselves on the science.

       "But it's odd that the "rising sea levels" have not had any effect on ocean front property prices."

       Just because birds fly towards warmer climes in winter doesn't mean the price of tea in China has anything to do with the Yankees chances of winning the World Series.  There, that made as much sense as your statement and was as nearly on-topic.

       "It seems the market, distilling all the information available, is not particularly worried."

       IBID.

       I must congratulate you, sir.  You have served up a textbook example of the spin used by "skeptics" to sow the seeds of doubt and cause confusion:

       1. First you align with the poster by agreeing that there is warming going on, but minimalize it with your "gradual" sobriquet.
       2. Second you sow the seeds of doubt by stating, completely without foundation or cited reference, words that are diammetrically in opposition to the state of the science.
       3. Third you then grab the horns of the topic of the thread and with a mighty effort attempt to steer the thread completely off-topic.
       4. You sum your opus with a combination of off-topic dissembling and "it's not bad" marginalization.

       Well-done.

86915. Bob Lacatena at 02:39 AM on 2 May 2011
       A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
       145, Ken, You dodged the question. You said:

       The above 4.14 - 5.69E20 number is still roughly half the NET 9.17E20 Joules/year you are claiming from Flanner.

       Flanner covers the entire northern hemisphere, while your numbers are limited to the Arctic Circle. That is clearly the discrepancy, and until you fill in the gap, I'm not quite sure what your point is.
86916. arch stanton at 02:13 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       What’s with AGU? Are they sacrificing JGR in the interest of a lively debate? Are certain editor(s) simply willing to sacrifice standards in order to appear sympathetic to “contrarians” and therefore refute claims of bias? Something else?
86917. Rob Honeycutt at 02:06 AM on 2 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       What concerns me is that FKM2011 actually got published without being updated per Dr Box's comments. I mean if a reviewer clearly states that the conclusion of the paper can't be supported based on up-to-date data that should be the point where the editors go back to the authors and say, "Update it, please." What's going on at JGR that this didn't happen? On Dr Box's site he notes that they are already preparing a review. I'm sure it will be scathing. You can tell Dr Box is not happy about this paper getting through.
86918. jorget at 01:29 AM on 2 May 2011
       CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
       I suspect that increased average or maximum temperatures caused by increased atmospheric CO2 content will probably negate any positive effect of CO2 discussed here. I know from experience (200km NW from Sydney, Australia) that during summer heatwaves, when maximum daily temperatures exceed 40C, my vegetables simply stop growing regardless of how much water I can supply. This year our mandarins, a winter crop, started to ripen about three weeks earlier this year. Consequently,they became attacked by Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni}, which is a major summer pest here. I can also observe changes in the local rainfall patterns during the last two decades. For example, we are no longer getting major rain events associated with southern cold fronts. Most of our rain now comes from the tropics. These effects may be far more important for plant growth then CO2.
86919. Albatross at 01:20 AM on 2 May 2011
       How climate change deniers led me to set up Skeptical Science website
       Re #46, Yet another post filled with rhetoric and hyperbole, and references to religion. Enough already. I could be wrong, but i do not think that the "skeptic"/contrarian in question has actually spoken to the material contained in John's post yet. In fact, their very first post was off-topic.
86920. Eamon at 00:47 AM on 2 May 2011
       Medieval project gone wrong
       Another failing of that site is that it often fails to recognise that the term "Before Present", in Paeloclimatatic Science, means "Before 1950". Hence they often, either wilfully or foolishly, make very flawed comparisons.
86921. Bernard J. at 00:10 AM on 2 May 2011
       CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
       I'll put up my hand in support of Spaerica's comment at #40 and Stephen Baines' at #47, about precipitation. David B intimates that water availability is more than just precipitation, but I would note explicitly that the related aspect of evapo-transpiration is relevant in this regard too. Even with non-drought conditions, increases in evapo-transpiration rates loom as a big problem for agriculture in the future.
86922. Ken Lambert at 00:10 AM on 2 May 2011
       A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice
       Sp #144 Well tell us the area of the Earth's surface you are considering. We can go from 4.4% inside the Artic circle to 50% for the NH if you like.
86923. Bernard J. at 00:07 AM on 2 May 2011
       CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
       One of the reasons I often grew impatient with my erstwhile molecular biology (and other biomedical sciences) colleagues was that they frequently displayed a dismaying lack of understanding of ecological, evolutionary, and even thermodynamic limitations to biochemical variation in organisms. Humanityrules at #24 demonstrates exactly this sort of unsophisticated starry-eyed ignorance of the limitations imposed by broader biological issues. Fortunately, Marcus at #38 restored my faith in my molly-bolly brethren by pointing out to HR that there's no such thing as a free lunch. It would be a hijacking of the thread to detail the many ways in which tinkering with evolutionarily-refined characters faces the reality of biological, chemical, and thermodynamic feedings-back, but for folk such as HR I recommend careful consideration of a short piece by Mills and Bonne. Ian Forrester at #45 also makes a salient point by asking for evidence that humans are actually efficent at increasing the efficiency of biochemical processes by tweaking the genetic blueprints of targetted organisms. I await the answer to this with keen interest... For bonus points I would be interested in some clear consideration of how agriculture will function in a world with higher atmospheric CO₂, when the oil that fuels the energetic and fertiliser-feedstock requirements for the industry becomes ever more scarce.
86924. Ken Lambert at 23:59 PM on 1 May 2011
       How climate change deniers led me to set up Skeptical Science website
       Thank you JohnD - a thoughtful and telling comment. Skywatcher - A nice try but implausible. Do you seriously think that 'scientists' who have spent careers proposing the theory of AGW mainly via CO2GHG mechanisms would cheer, laud and celebrate if they were proven wrong? Your belief in the better angels of human nature is enviable but unrealistic. In my tender youth a Dr Paul Ehrlich was holding the planet in thrall to his apocalyptic predictions of mass starvation by the end of the 1980's, and a host of other Club of Rome disasters. Most of the students of the era believed his predictions and screamed for radical action. Does anybody remember him now? I saw him interviewed not long ago, and even though events proved his predictions absurd and plain wrong, he still clung to a defence - the disaster was delayed. And for JMurphy and Sphaerica: As said previously - this can go two ways. Dr Trenberth goes for 'its there but we can't adequately measure it', and I am going for the 'if it ain't measured it might not be there', if and until the measurements say more. If you go for 'its there but we can't adequately measure it', then a quantity of 'belief' is required to make up the balance. That quantity of belief is the difference between what we can measure and what we think is there. Rather than counting angels on the heads of pins, we can put some numbers of the quantity of belief. Proposed Warming imbalance : 0.9W/sq.m Measured Warming imbalance : 0.1 - 0.6W/sq.m Quantity of Belief: 0.3 - 0.8W/sq.m When there is belief required - doubt is the logical companion.
86925. Bernard J. at 23:58 PM on 1 May 2011
       CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
       Excellent summary. Well done. Keeping in mind some of caveats raised in David B's post at #48, something that is often not touched upon in discussions of this nature is the question "so, do the plants themselves actually want all of this extra carbon dioxide?". One very neat way to answer it is demonstrated by studies that examined the responses of plant stomata density to increasing artmospheric CO₂. In Ginkgo biloba*, a tree that has an almost 300 million year history on Earth, it has been demonstrated that stomatal density has decreased by almost 30% since 1924. This would seem to indicate that this species is eschewing at least a large portion of the extra CO₂ in order to improve the efficiency of water regulation, and of other thermodynamic costs. It appears that for Ginkgos at least, the response to "more plant food" is to say "thanks, but I'll cash that in for something else, if you please". Ginkgos apparently know of Leibig's law of the Minimum, where global warming deniers do not. [* I mention ginkgos, because their stomatal patterns serve as another proxy for CO₂ concentration over geological time...]
86926. Rob Painting at 23:56 PM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       BP @ 62 No. This tells us our climate is sensitive to the formation of the Isthmus of Panama and the associated changes in ocean circulation. No, this tells us the Earth's climate is sensitive to perturbation full stop. CO2, ocean circulation, global vegetation (talking the arrival of flowering plants here), global orography (mountain chains) all have had significant impact on the climate. And there was no ocean acidification during the Pliocene.
86927. muoncounter at 23:28 PM on 1 May 2011
       Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
       RSVP#414: "you are unlikely to "see" waste heat with IR cameras." Except when you do. And voltage = Joules/Coulomb, energy per unit charge, which is an energy density.
86928. Bob Lacatena at 21:43 PM on 1 May 2011
       Models are unreliable
       353, trunkmonkey, See here and here for info on models. In particular, last section of the first link is titled "Can I use a climate model myself?".
86929. Bob Lacatena at 21:39 PM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       62, BP, You comment seemingly came out of nowhere. Is it from another thread? What exactly is your point?
86930. Berényi Péter at 21:25 PM on 1 May 2011
       Models are unreliable
       #354 CBDunkerson at 19:22 PM on 1 May, 2011 we are instead currently seeing accumulation of heat in both hemispheres No, we are currently not seeing anything like that. Rate of heat accumulation in the upper 700 m of oceans in 2003-2010 (when it is measured properly by ARGO) is 5.5±6.5×10²⁰ J/year. That is, it's flat. Even if we go with the upper bound (12×10²⁰ J/year), it takes 900 years to warm up this layer by 1°C, which is a warming rate of 0.11°C/century. However, it is entirely possible that the upper ocean is actually losing heat. Note that rate of change in surface temperatures in general can't be far removed from rate of upper ocean heating, as heat capacity of oceans is three orders of magnitude higher than that of the atmosphere. We also have (rather low quality) data for 1955-2010. If we take it on face value and believe the error bars provided by Levitus et al. are correct, average rate of heat accumulation in the upper ocean during this 56 year period is 25.3±0.5×10²⁰ J/year. At this rate it takes at least 450 years to heat it up by 1°C, which is 0.22°C/century. It is much smaller than the alleged late 20th century warming rate of the surface, so that could only be a transient phenomenon mostly due to redistribution of heat in the climate system (and also failure in properly taking into account local warming close to land based measurement sites due to land use changes - a.k.a. UHI).
86931. Berényi Péter at 20:57 PM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       #63 Tom Curtis at 19:39 PM on 1 May, 2011 so your theory is that the Arctic froze over because the warm current from the Gulf of Mexico to the Barents Sea was strengthened? Well it's so obvious when you think about it. It is not my theory, it is the standard one. When the Isthmus of Panama is removed, tropical high salinity surface waters can escape directly from the Atlantic to the Pacific. The remaining branch of the warm current does not have sufficient salinity to go down to the bottom before it reaches the Arctic Ocean (as it does today), so it just goes around and heats the entire region up. Also, the additional warm surface water entering the Pacific via the Panama Strait maintains near-permanent El Niño conditions there.
86932. Tom Curtis at 19:39 PM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       Berényi Péter @62, so your theory is that the Arctic froze over because the warm current from the Gulf of Mexico to the Barents Sea was strengthened? Well it's so obvious when you think about it.
86933. CBDunkerson at 19:22 PM on 1 May 2011
       Models are unreliable
       trunkmonkey wrote: "Surely DO didn't disappear just because we added 150ppm CO2..." We haven't added 150 ppm CO2 (yet) and 'Dansgaard-Oeschger events' haven't disappeared... read up on 'Bond events' and you'll see what I mean. Not that this is at all relevant given that DO/Bond events are redistributions of heat between the two hemispheres of the globe (i.e. one gets warmer while the other gets cooler) and we are instead currently seeing accumulation of heat in both hemispheres.
86934. Berényi Péter at 19:13 PM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       "This tells us our climate is sensitive to changes in CO₂". No. This tells us our climate is sensitive to the formation of the Isthmus of Panama and the associated changes in ocean circulation.
86935. Bernard J. at 18:46 PM on 1 May 2011
       Can you make a hockey stick without tree rings?
       Although regional in context, Aono's data documenting the start of the Kyoto Cherry Blossom Festival also describes a hockey stick: The Ljungqvist and the Loehle reconstructions are present on this graph because I originally collated the data in response to one of Tim Lambert's Deltoid posts.
       Moderator Response: [mc] Please restrict image width to 500 or less.
86936. RSVP at 17:21 PM on 1 May 2011
       Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
       continuing 413 ... that is, thermal energy in the water of a swimming pool. This can be understood clearly if for instance you compare the rise in temperature of the pool vs. the skewer. Adding 1000 W for 2 minutes to the skewer may raise its temperature hundreds of degrees (depending on its size), whereas a temperature change of the pool after doing the same might not be detected at all. Both have acquired the same energy. In the same way, you are unlikely to "see" waste heat with IR cameras.
86937. RSVP at 15:48 PM on 1 May 2011
       Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
       The IR photography proves nothing, or at best reveals lack of grounding. Temperature is not energy, just as voltage is not energy. The familiar shock from static discharge involves a very high voltage, yet is harmless (although a nuisance). And more to the point, there is way more energy contained in the water of a swimming pool at 20 C than a hot skewer at 300 C.
86938. trunkmonkey at 15:29 PM on 1 May 2011
       Models are unreliable
       352. No. I know we have a problem. I just don't know how big it is, but I'm not yet convinced you do either. As Sphaerica has discerned, I care deeply about this. It may be the defining issue of our time. We paleo guys have been beating our heads against the wall forever and have a profound sense of how difficult climate is. I have seen many projections of the models into the future. You claim that the models are hindcast, but I have never seen a graphic to demonstrate. I am not surprised you find emergent phenomena in models. Surely DO didn't disappear just because we added 150ppm CO2... Where can I get my own AR4 level model?
86939. Marcus at 13:42 PM on 1 May 2011
       How climate change deniers led me to set up Skeptical Science website
       John D. The IOD, just like the NAO, the PDO & the AO, have all existed for time immemorial, yet never before have they been shown to be able to alter climate over a period of *several* decades-& certainly not across the entire planet at the same time. Yet people such as yourself *cling* to such flotsam, with an almost religious fervor, in order to convince others (& yourselves) that these various Oscillations are to blame-as opposed to rising greenhouse gas emissions. Yet in spite of the vast amount of study of these various oscillations, Contrarians still are unable to explain a mechanism for how they can-all by themselves-change global energy balance over the course of several decades. Thats because of the fact that, unless they're capable of generating energy all by themselves, they really can't-all they can do is shift existing energy around the system. One last point, John D: "and introducing new ideas to people steeped in tradition" Judging from your comments on other blogs here, you & Ken sound like the ones who're "steeped in tradition", & in need of being "introduced to 'new' ideas" (well, new to you at any rate). John Cook & Co certainly are trying very hard to do so, but I feel that they're probably wasting their time with people like yourselves.
86940. scaddenp at 13:16 PM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       Henry, I have replied on your CO2 question here as requested by moderator.
86941. scaddenp at 13:15 PM on 1 May 2011
       CO2 lags temperature
       Responding to Henry Justice from another thread (and recycling comment from "models are unreliable") We know that isnt true. The isotope ratios for fossil fuel produced CO2 is different from that produced by carbon cycle feedbacks. If you look at the isotopes in CO2 from ice core bubbles, the increased CO2 during warming is from carbon cycle. If you look at isotope ratio in current atmosphere, you see increase is due to fossil fuel. At the moment, the carbon sinks are cleaning up about half our emissions. Over longer time, this will reverse.
86942. wili at 13:05 PM on 1 May 2011
       Wakening the Kraken
       Please note that GW potential for methane is higher than what is generally reported. From a post of RC: " There is a paper by Shindell et al., “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions“, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/326/5953/716 This paper argues that methane is more potent than previously realised due to the interaction with black carbon. The paper gives a revised Global Warming Potential for methane measured over 100 years as 33. This is an increase of over 30% compared to the value of 21 given in the IPCC Second Assessment Report used for the Kyoto Protocol. Over 20 years. Shindell et al. calculate this GWP to be 105. If this measure were used the climate impact of methane (e.g. for Plan B above), it would be 5 times the value agreed at Kyoto."
86943. Tom Curtis at 12:21 PM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       Henry Justice @56 even modern CO2 measurements show CO2 levels much higher than 390 ppm. To get those values, all you need to do is to take your samples near a local source of CO2. We know it is contamination from a local source because if you move away from it by gaining altitude (first image), or if the effect of the local source is diluted by high wind speeds (second image), the measurements converge on the values obtained for CO2 by measurement at remote locations free from contamination. The problem with the CO2 measurements you claim to have been thrown out is that they are known to have been located near or in major sources of CO2 such as towns, industrial plants, roads and forests. Forests are interesting because during the day trees draw CO2 from the atmosphere, diluting it, while at night they add CO2 to the atmosphere. That pattern can be clearly seen in CO2 measurements from forests, although it is weaker the higher the wind speed. Contrary to your claim, CO2 measurements from ice cores are not measurements of a proxy, but of atmospheric CO2 trapped in ice bubbles. There are no trees or factories in the antarctic, so no contamination. Hence the measurements are accurate. So, why should we take contaminated measurements with no quality control (as Beck does) over uncontaminated measurements?
86944. scaddenp at 11:37 AM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       Measuring the CO2 trapped in an air bubble in the ice is a pretty direct analysis if you ask me. You dont "chuck out" analyses, you examine their error bars and sampling technique (which is a more common reason to reject a sample as being representative of atmosphere at the time).
86945. muoncounter at 10:28 AM on 1 May 2011
       Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
       RSVP#411: "all energy associated with waste heat must vanish through radiation as soon as temperature increases. If this were true (which it is not) ... " Let us view some evidence, in the form of thermal IR photos: Power plant from a distance of 5.2 miles: Ground in large area around plant is at same temperature. Heat from plant does not affect surroundings at this distance. Parked Ford SUV: Hot surfaces of car, radiated IR reflecting from pavement underneath. Surrounding area cool. Nevada casino from a distance: Building is colder than surrounding ground, which is presumably warmed by the sun. There are 14 pages of these images. Waste heat seems to 'vanish' from the larger environment, without heating it in any perceptible way. Isn't that exactly what KR said?
86946. johnd at 09:03 AM on 1 May 2011
       How climate change deniers led me to set up Skeptical Science website
       Stephen Baines at 05:05 AM, unlike you, I am not "not sure", nor having to "guess" about the reasons people hold doggedly to certain positions. In Ken's case, even though I haven't a clue who he is, I have been able to pick up that he has been around a long time, as I have, and accumulated a width and depth of experience from operating in different environments which resonates with me. In my case, with a technical background, going into places foreign, and introducing new ideas to people steeped in tradition, required people who are prepared to slug it out, unfortunately they are all too few on the ground, but I see Ken as being one of those who would most likely succeed where many fail. It is one thing to hold the evidence, it is quite a different matter to make it penetrate the mindset of the masses. To put things into a climate perspective, think of the various ocean basin oscillations that have so far been identified. It typically started out with one man, or small group of people identifying a pattern that no-one else could see. Having identified it and presenting the evidence, it then becomes a slog to get those whose mindset has them only seeing the rungs when looking a ladder, to actually recognise the holes. One such instance is the IOD, here we are more than a decade on from it being identified, and having followed the progress of the research for much of that time, have seen how from a small group of people who both recognised the evidence and it's relevance, it has been a hard slog to gradually get wider acceptance from experts to adjust their established mindsets and preconceived notions. Here we are in Australia, according to the official weather services, still several years away from having reliable seasonal forecasts, still recovering from the latest floods, still being attributed by most to a strong La Nina, when perhaps the most relevant factor was the coinciding again of phases from the Indian and Pacific Oceans that caused a repeat of previous such coincidences. How much longer is it going to take for those following the evidence to converge on the answer?
86947. muoncounter at 08:43 AM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       henryj#56: "Yet, the leaf stomata proxy, ... is also unacceptable. Why is this?" Because the leaf stomata data are terrible: The error bars around stomata reconstructed CO2 values tend to be +/-50ppm. See the plant stomata thread for a reference and further comments.
86948. Bob Lacatena at 08:29 AM on 1 May 2011
       Medieval project gone wrong
       28, scaddenp, I don't know how much time I could commit, but I don't think it would take that long to go through things, so I'd give it a shot. If you leave a comment on my occassional-blog with your e-mail address, I can reply by e-mail, and we can set something up whereby I tell you which papers I can't get, and you can try to e-mail them to me.
86949. Henry justice at 08:20 AM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       If the CO2 levels rise following a warm period, could today's rising levels of CO2 be the result of a warming period 800-1000 years ago? Tree rings evidence do show a warming period at this time in the past. So, today's rising CO2, if this is true, could be the delayed response from centuries before.
       Moderator Response: Post your comment on the thread CO2 lags temperature.
86950. Henry justice at 08:15 AM on 1 May 2011
       What was it like the last time CO2 levels were this high?
       Let me get this straight, the preindustrial levels of CO2 are determined by ice core and other proxies, not by direct chemical analysis. The 90,000 preindustrial chemical analysis were thrown out as unreliable. The ice core proxies, and others, were then accepted at about 280 ppm. Yet, the leaf stomata proxy, a study that did show the CO2 levels were about the same as today, is also unacceptable. Why is this? Could it be that the CO2 levels were, in fact, nearly the same as today? How is global warming real if the preindustrial levels of CO2 are the same as today?

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