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Alec Cowan at 07:20 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
@Peter Freeman #63 and previous We should have seen more warming? Yes or no? and, why? (Saying "yes" or "no" is not a valid answer) Do you have something to provide related to that? I know that in 1 hours, 3 hours or 1 day you'll part to never return here, but I have to ask accordingly to what this site is and not according to what you are trying to do here. -
Stephen Baines at 07:11 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
"'All other environmental issues, pollution, over foresting, over fishing, decertification, clean water and ocean destruction have fallen off the table thanks entirely to 'climate science.' " I'm not sure why you have this impression, and it strikes me as a false dichotomy. Just this week in the New York Times there has been a ranging discussion of policies regarding fisheries. Speaking as a scientist, I have many colleagues right now studying effects of deforestation, overfishing, water issues and pollution. I can't count how many actually. Climate change poses a real problem though because it fundamentally alters how we handle those problems, and because we weren't prepared to account for it. There is a lot of ground to make up. Many scientists are quite dejected about it, actually... Again...there are sections devoted to issues like these around the site. I invite you to read. -
Alec Cowan at 07:11 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
What problems do you all have with the figure? Reflected solar radiation (101.9)/Incoming solar radiation (341.3) = 0.298 (global albedo) What is that figure doing here? I don't see you are going to get any of it as it looks pretty "constant", don't you think? No detail about low and high clouds can be got from there. Then no delta something or delta nothing, as you like. It looks quite an off-topic in this post. Just the same old song played the last few days with Trenberth being hiding behind everything because, he got mail! -
Bob Lacatena at 07:04 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
61, Peter Freeman, You can discuss the IPCC here only where you can directly tie it to Lindzen. Your understanding of the leaked e-mails is incorrect. There are a variety of threads on that topic. You can use the search box at the upper left (just type in IPCC) to find them and learn more. Concerning your anger... let me describe mine to you. Unlike you, I thoroughly understand the science. I invested a great portion of my life, starting in grade school, to understanding math and science. This equipped me well to understand climate science today. I've since spent much time in the past years specifically studying climate science. I began as a true skeptic. There was a time, a period of about six months, where I vacillated between accepting and refuting climate change theory, as I came across what appeared to be one good argument one way, and then a refutation and argument the other way. I went back and forth and back and forth. After a great amount of research and effort I came to recognize that current climate science is very, very solid, and all of the denial positions are built on misrepresentations and misinterpretations. Not some of them -- all of them. Which leads me to my anger. I have a 16 year old daughter. Beyond her, I have a healthy respect for humanity, and those billions of people whom I will never meet who share this world with me, and must live with the consequences of climate change after I'm gone, when it will be both too late for me to act, and too late to even say "I'm sorry." ( - Snip - ) The effort to combat climate change, meanwhile, is actually minimal. It will not hurt economies. It will not cost jobs. It will take time, and if we start too late, it will cost more and take longer than it should. So I, and many others here, get angry at people like Lindzen. I feel anger towards people like yourself, who get angry at the wrong problem, one that doesn't even really exist (i.e. the evil scientist cabal bent on one-world-socialist-government). Climate change is serious. You owe it to your own stated respect for other people to research the issues further, and to take the time to learn whatever it is you need to learn to make sure that you have a valid and correct position on the issue. Whether you are right or wrong isn't going to change what the planet does in the next twenty years, but you are going to have to shoulder your portion of the blame if we could do something but don't because of people who are ignorant of the science, and yet venomously vocal about the politics. So... weigh your anger against mine. You can doubt my position, if you feel you are informed enough to do so, but you cannot doubt my intentions, or my right to my own anger, any more than you doubt your right to your own. But in the end, whether one is right or wrong, anger is always an obstacle that must be overcome in order to do the right thing.Moderator Response: [e] Let's please not create invitations to descend into Godwin's Law. -
Clouds provide negative feedback
Berényi - Indeed, it's a matter of math. And physics. Tied to observations. However, Sphaerica is correct in stating that the Trenberth numbers are summaries, not a climate model, and playing with the numbers does not replicate actually considering the physical interactions of climate elements! As to the cloud effects, I suggest you look at the Trenberth 2009 paper for details. The term "cloud" occurs ~30 times in the text (not counting references to CloudSat), and in >12 bibliography titles; clouds were recognized as a major source of inter-estimate variability when that was written, and Trenberth et. al. put a lot of work into it. In other words, if you disagree with the numbers, address the paper that presented the numbers! -
Peter Freeman at 06:43 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Sphaerica ( -Ideological rant snipped- ). As for for expressed anger I comprehend what is going on here and what effect it will have and has had on the world and yes it makes me angry! All other environmental issues, pollution, over foresting, over fishing, decertification, clean water and ocean destruction have fallen off the table thanks entirely to 'climate science.'Moderator Response: [DB] Many here share your frustrations. But your entire 2nd paragraph is off-topic on this post and thread (but other threads are here on those topics, so feel free to use the Search function to find them). But don't blame those issues on "climate science". -
Bob Lacatena at 06:42 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
58, Peter Freeman. I suggest you post your comments on the IPCC on IPCC Reports: Science or Spin?, but only after first reading the post there. You should also first take hede of bullet point 3 of the comments policy:No politics. Rants about politics, ideology or one world governments will be deleted.
Moderator Response: [DB] Nice rede. ;) -
Tsumetai at 06:33 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
You need at least ca. 1 deg C difference between means of two sets of temperature data for stat significance at p < 0.05
Nonsense. The error in global mean temperature observations is on the order of a few thousandths of a degree. -
dana1981 at 06:29 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BP #53 - no, I'm not aware of any transcript of this interview. We transcribed the relevant quotes ourselves. CBD - I agree with you that Lindzen's comments about "the models" are a blatant misrepresentation of many other scientists' work. He's made similar statements in the past, but I'm not sure if he's made this statement specifically about models before. I think he usually says "we should have seen" without clarifying according to who/what. -
Berényi Péter at 06:23 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
#122 KR at 03:55 AM on 23 April, 2011 Sphaerica is quite correct Sphaerica is not correct and you know it. It is math, not a matter of opinion. -
Stephen Baines at 06:21 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
I would like to reiterate CBDs statement that the IPCC is NOT a research organization...it only summarizes the research that has been done. It does it very well, considering the task, which is ridiculous... If you look, Lindzen, Christy, McIntyre etc are all cited..despite having views off the mainstream. -
Bob Lacatena at 06:18 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
50, Peter Freeman,Sphaerica so you think that in 1988 the IPCC had already done scientific research?
The IPCC does not do research. They compile existing research into a comprehensive document. Prior to 1988, a vast amount of climate research had already been performed (hence the IPCC's ability to compile it). Climate science is over 100 years old. Today, a quick visit to Google Scholar shows over 686,000 papers/citations on climate change since 2000 alone. None of these were written by the IPCC because, as has already been explained, the IPCC does not do research.It does not take much intelligence at to see that the IPCC...
You are parroting the WUWT misrepresentation of the IPCC. I suggest you control your emotion and actually learn more about it. Reading the actual IPCC report would be a good start. I'd also suggest you reread both the comments policy (for instance, you have wandered off topic here in attacking the IPCC). You might also consider your own original post about "hate" expressed in blog comments. It's fine to express opinions and debate, but there's no need for the clear anger. -
Peter Freeman at 06:15 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Mr Moderator do you not think that in order for you to be taken seriously inconstancy and bias should not be your operating criterion, don't you think?Moderator Response: [e] Indeed the rules apply to everyone; as a guest here you are asked to abide by them. -
Stephen Baines at 06:13 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
"Sphaerica so you think that in 1988 the IPCC had already done scientific research? You suggest I get an education!" Peter...read your history. The first evidence for the effects of green house gasses on climate precedes the IPCC by 100 years (see Tyndall) and Ahrrenius. Extensive research after that confirmed this role and established increasing CO2 concentrations reslting from human output. It was being discussed in the 50s and 60s! That's historical record documented on this site. Look around! It takes a lot of effort, but it's worth it if you are actually curious. The IPCC process (it is not really a group) was set up to address predictions based on that previous research and a prior NRC report that raised alarms. It did not arise from the ground fully formed but is just part of a gradual development and accumulation of knowledge. It was not bound to find a positive effect of humans on climate, and that is not implied in its mission statement. It takes an extreme prediposition to distrust to make that leap. IPCC only recently came down firmly on the side of a human influence existing. -
Berényi Péter at 06:09 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
#43 dana1981 at 05:38 AM on 23 April, 2011 Lindzen made that statement in the radio interview linked toward the beginning of the post. I see. Isn't there a transcript? -
CBDunkerson at 06:07 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Peter, by 1988 all of the 'broad strokes' of AGW science were long since settled. You really should read up a bit before proclaiming that the IPCC 'jumped the gun'... the greenhouse effect was first discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1806. Thus, by 1988 it was hardly some new and unproven concept. -
funglestrumpet at 06:00 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Peter Freeman @ 36 As I understand it, Lindzen's work on climate sensitivity to CO2 was debunked because he excluded large areas of the globe in his work, including the polar regions, which are warming at a rate considerably faster than elsewhere. He is supposed to be producing another paper that is global in extent, though this has yet to appear. Does Mr Freeman support Lindzen's continued quoting the results of his debunked paper, knowing it will influence policy on a topic that could lead to countless loss of life and untold hardship? If yes, why? If no, would he please retract his tirade so that this site can maintain the standards it sets itself. It would be a shame if the comments section were to degenerate into the sort of thing that one sees elsewhere. There really is something up with that. -
CBDunkerson at 05:57 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BTW, since he was on a radio interview answering questions in real time it is entirely possible that in this case Lindzen simply mis-spoke. Dana's point that in the past he has been clearer about explaining that this '2 to 5 times as much warming' is based on taking the GHG forcings and positive feedbacks without considering other factors that the models account for. It came out as a false claim that the models got the temperature rise radically wrong, but that might have been because he didn't fully explain that he was talking about his own view of how the models should work rather than their actual results. -
Peter Freeman at 05:56 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Sphaerica so you think that in 1988 the IPCC had already done scientific research? You suggest I get an education!It does not take much intelligence at to see that the IPCC is a farce and that it has never done a days worth of science as it was never intended to do any science.How does an organisation have a mandate to prove its conclusions that it had when it was founded?Moderator Response: [DB] Please tone down the rhetoric and invective. And the IPCC doesn't actually DO any research. -
Stephen Baines at 05:55 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Sphaerica and Finglestrumpet have me rethinking a bit. While it may not make much of a difference in the larger debate, institutions do need to take a stand on the ethical issues this debate has raised regarding public communication. There should be clear ethical rules regarding how you present yourself, and your statements, to the public. And there should be teeth in those rules - although I'm not sure what those would be. One should of course be free to say what they want, but not under false guises. Government scientists are already subject to these rules, as I understand it. Of course, another layer of compliance is likely to make it even harder for scientists to connect with the public. -
CBDunkerson at 05:51 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
dana1981, my issue is that in this case he specifically attributes the '2 to 5 times as much warming' as being shown in "the models".... he is not simply saying that >he< believes that would be the result, but that others (presumably the IPCC) have shown it. However, the reality is that 'the models' show warming in line with observations.... because they do account for the things Lindzen dismisses. It is one thing for Lindzen to make false statements on his own behalf... another step worse when he attributes these claims to others who actually got it right. -
h pierce at 05:46 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Albatross at 02:06 AM on 22 April, 2011 at 7 Don't get carried away with these kind of graphs because temperature mesurements used for calibration aren't that accurate. In the US temps at weather stations are measured to +/-1 deg F. In Canada temperature data is reported to nearest +/- 0.5 deg C. Where are the error bars for plots in the graph? You need at least ca. 1 deg C difference between means of two sets of temperature data for stat significance at p < 0.05. Thus you really can't say 1700-1800 was colder than 1800-1900. We know from historical accounts that 1800-1900 was pretty cold in the NH. -
dana1981 at 05:43 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Stephen Baines #42 makes a valid point. There is no question whatsoever that climate models don't predict 2-5 times more warming than observed. As CBD put it, Lindzen is basically creating his own model which totally neglects aerosols and thermal inertia, and that model is wrong, but it's also a strawman. Lindzen made this and other indisputably false statements in this radio interview. At least he wasn't speaking to Congress, but he's still misinforming a segment of the public. -
Bob Lacatena at 05:41 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
36, Peter Freeman, Concerning the relevant aspect of your post... substantive, contradictory, outlier positions are welcome in science. Science is no different from any other human endeavor, and it will invoke the same degree of passion, both positive and negative. Passion is a good quality in a scientist. Science needs people pushing the envelope, and there will be some who are annoyed by that. But Lindzen, and others, are guilty not merely of disagreeing with the mainstream, but of openly and blatantly ignoring and misrepresenting the science to Congress and the public. It's one thing to publish a "renegade" scientific paper or theory. It's quite another to testify before Congress, or to tout to the media, positions that are known to be abjectly false. This is what Lindzen has done. He's not guilty of being a heretic. He's guilty of being a reputable scientist, who should know better, and yet making patently falsifiable claims. So, yes, in cases such as this, there should be academic and career consequences. No one, in any career, gets to abuse their position to promote their own personal agenda. That applies to lawyers, doctors, and many others. In some professions, malpractice can cause one to be disbarred or lose their license, or at a minimum be fired. Blatant disregard for one's own profession and professional responsibilities should come with consequences. Personally, I would think that at some point MIT would begin to find him to be a major embarrassment. I personally have lost a great amount of respect for MIT as an institution. They are in a difficult position... an institution can't be burdened with even a sniff of trying to control or direct their own academics. That's wrong. But professional misconduct is wrong, too, and reflects just as poorly on the supporting institution. Normally, professional misconduct is very strictly defined, but this is new ground, and pushing the envelope. The fact that Lindzen is using his position, which is buttressed by his association with MIT, to sway Congress and people with clearly false claims puts MIT into a very bad light. -
dana1981 at 05:38 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BP #41 - Lindzen made that statement in the radio interview linked toward the beginning of the post. -
Stephen Baines at 05:34 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
"Lindzen says that there in not enough warming to validate IPCC's claims, so he should be "compelled to change their (his) ways or suffer serious consequencies." I note that this is fine according to the Comments Policy, not political and all in line with good science." Lindzen makes a statement about climate model predictions. That statement can be shown to be factually incorrect, teh models do not make those predictions (see post above). Nothing political about it. If he did so knowingly, it is a severe breach of public trust. Nobody is saying anyone should suffer consequences for stating his "feelings", "opinions" or "values." -
Berényi Péter at 05:33 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
I am looking for sources of quotations in the post above. Text "the observed warming is too small [...]" is found here: House of Lords (UK) Select Committee on Economic Affairs 2nd Report of Session 2005-06 The Economics of Climate Change Minutes of Evidence Memorandum by Professor Richard S Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology followed by Examination of Witness, page 45, 25 January 2005. Worth reading in full. However, I could not find "The models do say you should have seen 2-5 times more [...]". Is there anyone who knows the source and can provide a pointer to the original text? -
dana1981 at 05:32 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
CBD #34 - actually if you go back through the history of Lindzen's "Earth hasn't warmed as much as expected" arguments (linked in the article), he's very clear. He says based on GHGs only, the Earth should have warmed much more than it has. This would be true if aerosols and thermal inertia didn't exist, but it's hard to characterize their omission in anything other than a very poor light. Lindzen justifies these omissions by claiming they wouldn't make a significant difference in his calculations, which is clearly wrong, as this article shows. Yet Lindzen continues to make this factually wrong argument again and again and again and again. I think a couple commenters here need to make a distinction - just because a smart person says something doesn't mean there's any validity to it. Facts are facts and reality is reality. If a biologist told you that elephants are pink, that wouldn't change the reality that elephants are not pink. And a lot of people would question why that biologist claimed otherwise. That's what's happening with Lindzen. He's saying things which are indisputably wrong, which it's hard to believe he doesn't know are wrong, which makes people question why he's making these claims. -
CBDunkerson at 05:28 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
h pierce, Lindzen's comments in the article above were not to congress and not based on his own research. Did you even read the article? Basically, he said that climate models show alot more warming than has been observed. Problem is... they don't. Instead, he is essentially creating his own climate model where he takes the forcings used in standard models and then calculates warming from that without considering the ocean heat sinks, aerosol effects, and other 'anti warming' factors in the IPCC and other models. His model then comes up with vastly more warming than has been observed and based on this he denounces the models which match the observed warming. In short, it is exactly the same game Monckton played with the supposed 'IPCC warming graph' that appeared nowhere in the IPCC reports and had vastly different values than the warming graph which WAS in the report. An extreme form of the 'straw man' argument... their opponents predictions turned out to match observations, so they ignored the actual predictions and made up their own fake versions. -
Bob Lacatena at 05:25 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
36, Peter Freeman, You are entitled to your opinions, and your emotions. You're entitled to anger at one group of people, while giving another group a free pass for equivalent (but far worse) behavior. You're entitled to your own interpretation of events, albeit very, very different from mine and many others, and seemingly founded in extreme ignorance. You are not entitled to have seen "many dozens of graphs and read more analysis than I could ever understand" and then comment as you did (until you make a concerted effort to actually understand them). You are not entitled to misunderstand, misinterpret, and misrepresent history as you did by saying "in 1988, before a single 'scientist' had done any work, the IPCC knew.." [For that one, I'd strongly suggest that you go read Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming, to see exactly how far back the science goes, as well as how solid it is.] You do not get to bring angry invective to the table, disparaging everyone (especially after your first post complained of exactly that behavior!). What you do get to do is to educate yourself. This site is full of science. It's even organized into neat little beginner/intermediate/advanced tabs. The Internet is a wealth of information, presented at many levels, and you can learn enough to contribute a valid position to the discussion, as long as you are wary and seek out true, reputable science sites, and not the myriad venomous faux-science sites that will mislead and confuse you rather than educate you. Go do some reading. Fill the holes in your knowledge. You do not get a place at the table until you do. -
Stephen Baines at 05:23 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
@ Finglestrumpet Look, I feel your pain and frustration. But I think you are apportioning too much power to the scientific community in this instance. The fact that there is actually a public "debate" on humans are causing global warming despite clear statements from so many scientific societies is exhibit A for the case that the scientific establishment only contributes to the public debate - it does not set the terms, especially in the short run. Exhibit B is that censure, even if justified, creates the appearance of a "witch-hunt" and martyrdom (Cue cries of Galileo!). Development of a governmental mechanism to limit public statements would certainly run afoul of academic freedom and freedom of speech concerns that protect all sides of the debate (including Mike Mann). It would also almost certainly take longer to get agreement on how to control access to the debate while preserving those freedoms as the debate itself would take. Basically it's a distraction. Could the societies and MIT set some ethics guidelines regarding how Lindzen protrays his views in public (much as government agencies do for, say, NOAA sicentists like Conway when talking about his book with Oreskes)? Possibly. Not sure it will make a lot of difference. The real problem is not that Lindzen is allowed to speak, it's that people give him credence without checking his statements. Scientific illiteracy, the complexity of the issues, politics, PR by vested interests are all at work. As a scientist, though, I have to believe that the evidence eventually prevails over the long haul. It has time and time again in previous debates where many of the same forces were at work. Time is of the essence, but you need not convince everybody to win this debate... Can Lindzen of Christy can be reprimanded for making demonstrably incorrect statements in front of congress...maybe. But, you still have to prove they deliberately misled. Were any scientists held accountable for their testimony during the tobacco hearings? Just saw PFs post. Double wow. That would be exhibit C. -
CBDunkerson at 05:20 AM on 23 April 2011Climate's changed before
ciclista, see CO2 was higher in the past. Basically, the Sun puts out more energy as it gets older. Thus, since CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) act to retain some of the Sun's energy within the climate system a fainter Sun means more GHGs were needed to have the same temperature. -
Climate's changed before
ciclista - A good question, which has already been discussed on this website in the Does high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2 thread. Long story short - CO2 has been higher in the past, but other forcings have a history too. The sun was dimmer hundreds of millions of years ago (about 4% during the period you mentioned), and the combinations of forcings including CO2 and sunlight match the climate record. See also CO2 is not the only driver of climate. -
ciclista at 05:08 AM on 23 April 2011Climate's changed before
Looking back for some millions of years, earth atmosphere generally showed concentrations of CO2 much higher than today. This leads me to expect much higher average global temperatures in former times too. However, talking in timescale of millions of years, the perspective of strong correlation between temp end CO2 does not match that perfectly like date published from the ice cores, that go 400.000 years back. Especially for the period about 450 millions of years ago, when there were temperatures like today, although the CO2 concentration was 10 times today´s value. How can this low temperature be explained. Vulcanoes? Can anyone help me to understand? -
Peter Freeman at 05:05 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Wow ( -Moderation Complaints snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) If money was where it was to stop at, it would not be so bad. But look at what is being called for on THIS forum. It is not unique and more and more there is a culture appearing that is calling for this! funglestrumpet suggests a solution for Lindzen and others: "There needs to be a climate (no pun intended) where people that go beyond the realm of legitimate differences of opinion - and I believe that that is what is under discussion here - are compelled to change their ways or suffer serious consequencies." So let me understand this. Lindzen says that there in not enough warming to validate IPCC's claims, so he should be "compelled to change their (his) ways or suffer serious consequencies." I note that this is fine according to the Comments Policy, not political and all in line with good science. ( -Off-topic snipped- ) I am sure this method would satisfactorily get as much warming as anyone could possibly want out of Mr Lindzen :) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) ( -Off-topic snipped- ) Polotics or science? come on be honest nowResponse:[DB] Please focus on the topic of this post.
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h pierce at 05:01 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
You guys should refrain from bad-mouthing Lindzen, Christy, Spencer, Carter et al because they are expressing a professional opinion based upon their personal observations and research. In particular, when they give testimony to the US congress they swear an oath to tell the truth, the whole and nothing but the truth. Lying to the US Congress is a very serious felony and carries severe penalties. -
CBDunkerson at 04:36 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BP, on Lindzen specifically it is difficult to tell what he is thinking. His claim that climate models predicted warming 2 to 5 times what has actually been observed is obviously false... that'd mean models were showing 1.6 to 4.0 C warming by now, when in fact they only predict those levels in future decades. What he apparently means is that the climate forcings calculated by the models would result in 2 to 5 times as much warming as has been observed... if we ignored the existence of the oceans, aerosols, and other 'anti warming' factors which the models take into account, and thus do not predict the extreme warming he claimed they do. The question is what should be done about such blatantly false statements. Is it simply 'freedom of speech' and there is no recourse when scientists mis-inform the public? Or should there be academic and/or legal consequences? Personally, I think Lindzen has gone well past the bounds of simple 'skepticism' or even 'contrarianism'. If these false statements are mistakes then they are egregious ones of a sort I wouldn't expect a competent scientist to make. -
dana1981 at 04:26 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
As requested, we're working on a post comparing Hansen's 1988 projections to our interpretation of what Lindzen's projection would have looked like (since he didn't actually make any specific predictions), based on his 1989 talk. I think it's going to be an interesting post, with a very telling graphic. I'm guessing we'll publish this early to mid next week. -
NewYorkJ at 04:08 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
That indeed was a good find by Jimbo. "The trouble is that the earlier data suggest that one is starting at what probably was an anomalous minimum near 1880" That assertion seems to be the exact opposite of reality. The period near 1880 suggests a relative high. HadCRUT3 "The entire record would more likely be saying that the rise is 0.1 degree plus or minus 0.3 degree." We can calculate the linear trend from 1880, 1870, 1890, etc. to 1989 and get roughly the same +0.5 C. We should also allow for earlier versions of datasets possibly showing different trends, for which Lindzen may have based his claims from, although looking at Hansen et al. 1981, I don't think there's a notable trend difference during the period of record. From Hansen 1981, it certainly appears his projections are spot on. "It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural variability by the end of the century, and there's a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of shifting climatic zones, erosion of the west Antarctic ice sheet with a consquent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage." Hansen 1981 Hansen also discusses ocean heat capacity, something missing from any Lindzen "analysis". -
Clouds provide negative feedback
Sphaerica is quite correct - the Trenberth diagrams are summaries of a great deal of data, not a climate model themselves. Which is why attempting to model cloud feedback directly and solely from the Trenberth energy 'budget' without understanding the underlying physical processes and their response to changes is rather quixotic. -
Berényi Péter at 03:51 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
#29 CBDunkerson at 02:31 AM on 23 April, 2011 BP, who exactly did I accuse of deception? I am glad to hear you have not referred to specifically Dr. Lindzen and called him a liar as one might have inferred from the context. Neither have you accused him with false testimony to Congress and called for a criminal trial against him. If so, you are expected to squarely confirm all these points, one by one. ( -Snip- )Moderator Response: [DB] Off-topic meanderings snipped. Please focus on the topic of this thread; thanks! -
Bob Lacatena at 03:40 AM on 23 April 2011CO2 Reductions Will Not Cool the Planet? We Know
21, Phila, loga-rythmically Sounds musically scientific. I'm not only convinced, but it's got a beat, and you can dance to it! -
Bob Lacatena at 03:38 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
DB/Mods, A brief note concerning the deleted "hate" post. I actually think it would be good if SS did what RC did, and had the equivalent of "the Bore Hole" (perhaps Septic Science would be a good name) -- a thread to which to move posts that should be deleted, along with the responses (which would be a thread where it is not possible to add posts, only read them). The Bore Hole at RC provides me with a fair amount of entertainment, and I think it serves a purpose, to show people that they can't just drop drive-by stink bombs without consequence, and to let people have a one-stop-shopping location to see the sort of inanity and invective that some people do deliver, but safely quarantined from the real debate.Moderator Response: [DB] That is being considered. In the meantime, everyone's forbearance is appreciated. Thanks for the suggestions! -
Bob Lacatena at 03:33 AM on 23 April 2011Clouds provide negative feedback
120, BP, I disagree with your logic. You cannot count the 78 absorbed by the atmosphere as eligible to be reflected. So it's not 79 of 341, it's 79 if 341-78, or 79 of 263, so it's not 79/(341*0.66)=0.35, it's 79/(263*0.66)=0.455. And, again, the 0.66 is a gross estimate. After all, what matters isn't how much of the earth's surface is under cloud cover, but how much of the daylight surface, at what angle of incidence (as you said, latitudinal distribution, as well as proximity to the day/night boundary), and what type of clouds. All in all, to me it's a total non-issue. I see no reason to doubt the numbers. Especially since, in the scheme of things, this is a bird's-eye view over-simplification diagram meant to help people better understand how energy moves through the earth's climate system, and what the term "energy budget" actually means. It's not like this is the foundation for all AOGCMs and all of climate science. -
Bob Lacatena at 03:20 AM on 23 April 2011Video on why record-breaking snow doesn't mean global warming has stopped
25, muoncounter, Interesting!!! I notice, too, while over at Nature, that they have just launched Nature Climate Change (Vol 1, Issue 1, April, 2011). At $112 the subscription is a bit pricy (especially since it's not all encompassing, e.g. the article you posted is not there... I guess it's "weather"), but I'm considering it. -
Phila at 02:47 AM on 23 April 2011CO2 Reductions Will Not Cool the Planet? We Know
(logarythmically) Well, that sounds scientific. I'm convinced! -
CBDunkerson at 02:31 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
BP, who exactly did I accuse of deception? If you go back and actually read you'll see that I made an argument about the limits of 'freedom of speech' in regards to false statements. I didn't actually ascribe false statements to anyone... though even that would not violate the comments policy. Only ascribing negative motives to actual people is at issue. -
dana1981 at 02:29 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
Like previous commenters, I really have no idea what Arkadiusz @ 21 is trying to argue. -
Berényi Péter at 02:20 AM on 23 April 2011Lindzen Illusion #1: We Should Have Seen More Warming
#31 Ron Crouch at 01:42 AM on 23 April, 2011 The misrepresentations to the public in general by Lindzen and others doesn't really concern me that much (that freedom of speech thing). #32 CBDunkerson at 02:01 AM on 23 April, 2011 Ron, I have to wonder whether 'freedom of speech' should include 'freedom to lie' in this way. First point of Comments Policy:- No accusations of deception. Any accusations of deception, fraud, dishonesty or corruption will be deleted. This applies to both sides. Stick to the science. You may criticise a person's methods but not their motives.
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RyanStarr at 02:17 AM on 23 April 2011Antarctica is gaining ice
I've got a query, or two. The surface temperature over the past decade has been mostly steady and yet we attribute significant ice trends to the warming climate. Well over the past century we recorded significant unprecented global warming, so shouldn't the polar regions also have undergone significant observable change in that time? Is there evidence of that? (extrapolate those charts back another 100 years over a period when it actually warmed) I don't see how we can attribute polar ice trends to climate change when the climate isn't changing but ignore the much longer period when it changed a lot. The poles must be significantly different places now to what they were in 1900 if the period 2000-2010 is considered significant when climate change took a breather. (Yes we're limited by the fact that the polar regions haven't always been accessible, but scientists have their ways) Or on the same track we might ask why people are using 10 year (and less!) observation periods to glean affects of global warming at the poles and yet we would never use such periods for land observations because they're too short.
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