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Eclectic at 23:41 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan , it is there in the OP article, and in the footnotes. In plain English. Please read through again, with understanding, about the planetary gravities and "glacial tides" connection.
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Eclectic at 23:35 PM on 10 November 2019It's the ocean
Alexb @51 ,
why are you suggesting that the 15um wavelength is "the only relevant band" for oceanic heating?
Rather, the ocean gains heat variously by that old triad: conduction/ convection/ and radiation.
Admittedly it is only my own personal anecdotal evidence ~ but I can assure you that every time I have swum beneath the ocean surface, or scuba-dived into the depths . . . it was not pitch black, and I could see all around me. Radiation, presumably, in the 0.4~0.7um band. From above.
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John Mason at 23:19 PM on 10 November 2019Ynyslas, western Wales – a place made by climate change
Re #4 - yes another hint at a once-different geographical arrangement!
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Alexb18675 at 22:21 PM on 10 November 2019It's the ocean
Just one or two problems.. The oceans are warmer than the atmosphere and therefore cannot be heated in this way. The atmospheric Arctic temperatures are always sub zero which prohibits melting. Secondly, the mechanism described for oceanic heating relies on down welling IR. It must be remembered that the only relevant band here is 15μm, which can only penetrate up to 3mm of the ocean surface. The beer analogy is wrong as the beer is cooler than the surrounding environment. This is not the case with oceans.
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Alan Lowey at 20:10 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
The author states:
"Jupiter and Saturn affect Earth's orbital dynamics"
This is in complete contrast to the professional article "The Cause and Nature of the Tides" by the Land Information of New Zealand (LINZ). This states quite clearly:
"What about the planets? Venus exerts the greatest gravitational pull on the Earth of all the planets but, at just 0.0054% of the effect of the Moon, makes no real impression. Despite being the largest planet, Jupiter's greater distance means that it's influence is ten times smaller than Venus. So the Moon and Sun are the only celestial bodies that have any significant gravitational impact on the Earth."
I'm guessing that your reply will be something like:
"Jupiter's gravity, despite being just 0.00054% of the effect of the Moon, has feedback loops which amplifies this near invisible influence, to create sea level changes of 120m."
The numbers just don't stack up. Even if they were anyway near close, there's still another logical error. Jupiter's gravitational influence would be acting all the time, not just on a 100,000yr cycle.
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Eclectic at 19:29 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Correction : that should be Alan @19
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Eclectic at 19:28 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan @20 ,
the "glacial tides" being influenced by the gravity of Jupiter & Saturn . . . is explained within the text of the OP article.
It is also explained a second time, in Footnote 1.
And explained again in Footnote 2. And also explained in Footnote 6.
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Eclectic at 19:19 PM on 10 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Kiwironnie @334 , adding a new 30 thousand million tons of CO2 quickly and repetitively (= annually) would seem quite a lot, to many people ! With or without knife edges.
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kiwironnie at 18:58 PM on 10 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
'.. our output of 29 gigatons of CO2 is tiny compared to the 750 gigatons .. it adds up because the land and ocean cannot absorb all of the extra CO2. About 40% of this additional CO2 is absorbed.'
That CO2 natural sources and sinks are on such a knife edge balance that an additional 4% created by man cannot be fully absorbed strikes me as being either an amazing coincidence, incorrect, or there is some other mechanism creating such a balance that is not described here.
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Alan Lowey at 18:16 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
The new physics explanation is that a strong gravitational attraction exists between the inner cores of planetary bodies and the Sun, when they are on the same 'plane of angular momentum'.
This new physics scenario can then be applied to the Moon orbiting the Earth. The King tides, referred to in the intro text, would therefore be due to the Earth and Moon aligned on the 'local plane of angular momentum'.
Another way of describing the Glacial tides would be to say that they are caused by King tides due to the alignment of the Earth, Sun and planets on the plane of angular momentum.
The language makes it sound much more complicated than it really is. A visual simulation model would convey this new physics idea without any problem at all.
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Alan Lowey at 16:55 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
There's a logical error given in the intro text of this topic. The author states that 'Glacial tides', referring to the advance and retreat of glaciation on the 100,000yr cycle, is due to the 'orbital influence' of Jupiter and Saturn.
The explanation given in the LINZ The Cause and Nature of Tides, states that Jupiter and Saturn have a negligible influence on the tides (with respect to 'the standard version of' gravity).
How can these two opposing views be reconciled without the new physics I'm suggesting?
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Alan Lowey at 14:54 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
The Moon orbits in the same direction as the Earth rotates, prograde. Because the Earth rotates at a faster rate than the Moon's orbit, the tidal bulge appears to be ahead.
I'm saying that if the Earth didn't rotate, the Moon would be ahead of the tidal bulge.
The image I have in my head is a strong gravitational interaction between the innermost cores of the two bodies. In this scenario, there is a delay for the initial inner bulge to reach the surface.
Because every single schoolchild is taught that "the Moon pulls on the oceans" it's extremely difficult for the average person to comprehend any alternative explanation.
Incidentally, in a book about the science within the Koran, they say that the tides are "Waves upon Waves upon Waves". This just happens to fit the alternative suggestion I'm trying to explain.
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Philippe Chantreau at 14:38 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Word salad in the "not even wrong" category. The basics of gravity are laughing.
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Alan Lowey at 14:23 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
The point I'm making is that we don't easily observe the supposed direct gravitational effect upon the clouds as we do the oceans. There's no real reason why the effect shouldn't be observed with the naked eye.
The fact that the Moon orbits ahead of the ocean tide and not directly in-line lends itself to the notion of new physics.
See: Land Info NZ, The Nature and Cause Of The Tides.
The atmospheric tides are even more delayed. This kind of detail which contradicts the basics of gravity gets harder and harder to find using a web search.
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barry17781 at 08:55 AM on 10 November 2019Ynyslas, western Wales – a place made by climate change
"Bendigeidfran, and the aforementioned hosting sailed towards Ireland. The ocean was not extensive [back] then: he went by wading. There used to be nothing except two rivers called the Lli and the Archen. And after that the ocean spread out, and the sea flooded the kingdoms. Then he advanced, carrying all the string-minstrels on his back, making for the land of Ireland[
— Branwen Ferch Llyr
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nigelj at 06:19 AM on 10 November 2019Video: California Wildfires & Climate Change
Australia's state of New South Wales is currently experiencing an unusually intense and early bush fire season here.
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Philippe Chantreau at 06:07 AM on 10 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
Since this whole pile of nonsense relies on a very exact timing and Rahmstorf's interpretation in the paper above of a rigid cyclicity with a 1470 years period, let's consider the state of the science following the Rahmstorf (2003) paper.
The timing of D.O. events has been in fact the subject of considerable debate. Obrochta, Miyahara, Yokoyama & Crowley (2012) injected much doubt as to the true cyclic nature of the events and the duration of the period. They have some pretty strong language:
"Our new results suggest that the “1500-year cycle” may be a transient phenomenon whose origin could be due, for example, to ice sheet boundary conditions for the interval in which it is observed. We therefore question whether it is necessary to invoke such exotic explanations as heterodyne frequencies or combination tones to explain a phenomenon of such fleeting occurrence that is potentially an artifact of arithmetic averaging."In addition, solar cycles are pretty good candidates to figure as the initial forcings in the events: "Results from the most well-dated, younger interval suggest that the original 1500 ± 500 year cycle may actually be an admixture of the ∼1000 and ∼2000 cycles that are observed within the Holocene at multiple locations. In Holocene sections these variations are coherent with 14C and 10Be estimates of solar variability."
Another European team 5 years earlier came to even stronger conclusions about the timing and cyclicty of the events. P. D. Ditlevsen, K. K. Andersen, and A. Svensson (2007) state:
"Here we present statistical significance tests of this periodicity. The detection of a periodicity relies strongly on the accuracy of the dating of the DO events. Here we use both the new NGRIP GICC05 time scale based on multi-parameter annual layer counting and the GISP2 time scale where the periodicity is most pronounced. For the NGRIP dating the recurrence times are indistinguishable from a random occurrence." So, in other words, when dating is refined in the ice core, the periodicity evaporates.
It should be furthermore noted that D.O. events belong in a rather ancient past, as there has not been any since the last one observable in the GRIP/GISP cores, about 25,000 years ago.
The Holocene shows another cycle of Bond events, of much smaller magnitude, most of them without a clear climate signal. The periodicity of the Bond events is closer to 1,000 years. Perhaps Alan's creative gravity maths can take us from 1800 to 1500 to 1000. All this can be found through a quick search of D.O. events, Heinrich events and Bond events.
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Philippe Chantreau at 05:17 AM on 10 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
You do not expose anything like a "thought experiment" in your ramblings. You stated this in post 35 above:
"The obvious choice of a lunar origin was derided by his contemporaries,..."
This was a complete fabrication, as was clearly exposed by Rahmstorf himself in the paper you couldn't bother to read despite using it for your argument. The last 2 lines of the paper are not relevant to any thought experiment. You seem to confuse thought experiment with hypothesis. You're trying to make it look like we are somehow in agreement and that you kind of knew what Rahmstorf said, when in fact it is clear you had no clue whatsoever.
The fundamentals of how we think about gravity is called General Relativity, it has withstood every test thrown at it for the past 100 years. Just like Newton's theory, when it is shown not to be the best explanation, it will still remain valid for all practical purposes within a given domain of application. You are making a bold assertion, and contradicting Rahmstorf himself. It is incumbent to you to support such assertion. A YouTube video does not cut it. You're claiming all the scientists at NASA, NOAA and elsewhere have it wrong, show your work. Without that, you've got nothing but hot air. I can't wait to see how you reduce 1800 years to 1470.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:47 AM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey at 14,
This is the most inept thing I have heard in quite a while, and we see some pretty heavy ones on this site. Considering how eager you were to lecture others on the history of tidal science, you should have bothered to read the wiki that I linked.
Let's first clarify that clouds are not made of water vapor, but of liquid or solid water. Then we can clarify your question/thought experiment and even generalize it under the following form: "if the combined gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon makes the Oceans move, should we not also observe a similar movement in the atmosphere (where, by the way, water vapor is a well mixed gas)?
Well, it is painfully obvious that you have zero familiarity with the very stuff you lectured everyone about, and if you had bothered to read the wiki article I linked earlier, you would have found this other one about atmospheric tides:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_tide
So the answer to you ill formulated thought experiment is that, indeed, there are tidal movement of the atmosphere. They include other infuences than Sun and Moon, but they exist nonetheless, and you would have known that if you had done the least bit of digging on the subject. You should stop pontificating on matters you don't know anything about.
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william5331 at 04:25 AM on 10 November 2019Video: California Wildfires & Climate Change
Actually, climate change will hit the rich and comfortable pretty hard. Take, for instance, the rich Americans, many of them responsible in big and little ways for climate change, who have retired to Florida and, of course, had to have beach front properties. In fact, more beach was created in many cases by building berms on which their houses sit with canals beside their houses for their boats. One good hurricane and presto' no more houses or boats. All of Florida sits on permeable lime stone so there is no way to stop the incursion of the sea due to sea level rise. Perhaps they will all raise their houses on stilts.
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cpske at 03:08 AM on 10 November 2019Video: California Wildfires & Climate Change
Good job with the video. Can you share how many hits you are getting?
And for those who need a stronger dose of the message, see https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/opinion/sunday/science-climate-change.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
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DSinBG at 03:06 AM on 10 November 2019Video: California Wildfires & Climate Change
So important to remember that the least able to adapt are and will be the most seriously affected. Nicely done.
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maxwicen at 00:15 AM on 10 November 2019Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Yes, of course, it contributes to the CO2 in the atmosphere.
And no in the big scheme of things it is not all accounted for by the carbon cycle. It almost feels like some people are trying to answer this question so that their children won't feel bad about breathing.
Ask yourself this question:
What type of machinery plows the fields where the crops grow? What does that machine run on?
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Alan Lowey at 19:11 PM on 9 November 2019Video: California Wildfires & Climate Change
I was more than happy to contribute a monthly amount and become a patron. Keep up the good work.
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Alan Lowey at 17:56 PM on 9 November 2019CSLDF: Here’s How Science Has Suffered During the First 1,000 Days of Trump
See National Geographic 'Why the Amazon doesn't really produce 20% of the world's oxygen", 29 Aug 2019.
Wow, I've just discovered how big an issue this is. Amazing.
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Alan Lowey at 17:29 PM on 9 November 2019CSLDF: Here’s How Science Has Suffered During the First 1,000 Days of Trump
This is an interesting subject which triggered a recent event. I was watching a 'nature documentary' narrated quite annoyingly by Will Smith. He was over enthusiastically announcing that new research had shown that the Amazon rainforest didn't produce any net increase in oxygen to the atmosphere. The general idea of a forest 'being the lungs of the Earth' seemed to be put in doubt. Vegetation absorbs CO2 and via photosynthesis, produces Oxygen.
I resolved this issue myself by considering that because the Amazon rainforest is so ancient, the fauna has managed to occupy every available niche. Therefore the oxygen released via photosynthesis is immediately consumed by the animals within the forest before it reaches the atmosphere.
I then considered the evidence of giant mammal remains found in Tar Brae. Think about this thought experiment. If the animals evolve to absorb all the available oxygen that they can, then they would increase in size but the atmospheric oxygen levels in proxy data of our past would show that the "oxygen levels haven't changed". This concept does take some thinking about.
I was therefore able to re-establish the concept of "the forests are the lungs of the Earth" by considering the great Arboreal Forest in the Northern hemisphere, the hypothetical one that crosses Siberia and Canada. Because it will be a NEW forest, the fauna hasn't had time to fill the niches, so oxygen is released into the atmosphere.
I'll try and find some links for the next post.
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Alan Lowey at 16:01 PM on 9 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Phillip Chantreau
Please consider this thought experiment:
The only easily observed gravitational effect of the Moon is the regular ebb and flow of the ocean tides. If the commonly held belief that the Moon acts directly on the water itself, why don't we observe the water vapour of the clouds being influenced by the Moon?
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Eclectic at 15:52 PM on 9 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan , the regular readers of this website often encounter "unorthodox" ideas (to put it politely).
The readers must then decide whether such ideas come under the category of Troll or Crackpot (of course, those categories are not mutually exclusive).
You are now suggesting that [peace, O Archimedes!] the atmospheric H2O is treated very differently from the non-H2O portion of the atmosphere, regarding its susceptibility to the gravitic connection with the Moon. And I dare not ask about the Solar tides ;-)
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Alan Lowey at 15:52 PM on 9 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
Philippe Chantreau
Thank you for the link. The last two lines of the paper, as you've quoted, are the most relevant to my thought experiment.
Rahmstorf didn't consider combining the 'problem with gravity' with the 'problem of fitting a lunar cause'. There's some wonderful YouTube explanations of The Problem With Gravity. If the fundamentals of how we think gravity works is wrong, then it's possible to assign the Moon as the cause of the 1,470 year cycle.
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Philippe Chantreau at 15:36 PM on 9 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
The DOI link above doesn't seem to work. Paper is accessible here:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003GL017115
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Philippe Chantreau at 11:36 AM on 9 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey at 10,your post suggests that the combined gravitational pull of the Moon and Sun could pull the lithosphere but not the ocean on top of it. That makes no sense. There is plenty of info here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tide
No mention whatsoever of the lithosphere pushing the oceans anywhere.
The lithospere does move but that is not what makes the oceans move, they both move due to the same causes.
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Philippe Chantreau at 11:29 AM on 9 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
The "obvious choice of a lunar origin" is discussed by Rahmstorf himself in the paper that you mentioned without referencing it, and apparently did not read because it does not support your hypothesis at all. From the conclusion section:
"The closest cycle known so far is a lunar cycle of 1,800 years [De Rop, 1971], which cannot be reconciled with the 1,470‐year pacing found in the Greenland data. The origin of this regular pacing thus remains a mystery."
Copied from: Rahmstorf (2003). Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock. Geophysical research Letters, 30 (10).
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017115|
The Rahmstorf (2003) paper and others that I linked earlier explore why the weak forcing associated with this cycle fails to produce D.O. events in the Holocene. The climate effects are entirely owed to ocean circulation, especially salinity changes. There is other litterature suggesting that the cycle is still present but has not produced any noticeable climate effect since the last DO event. I am not impressed with how much you have explored the subject. This stuff is not hard to find.
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Alan Lowey at 09:56 AM on 9 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
Your term "sloganeering" and deleting of my posts, not just ruling them through, is against the very foundations of science-based intellectualism, namely, natural philosophy.
Moderator Response:[TD] Moderation complaints deleted.
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Alan Lowey at 09:46 AM on 9 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
Stefan Rahmstorf, the originator of the 1,470 year cycle, noticed that the data was like 'clockwork', indicating an orbital origin. The obvious choice of a lunar origin was derided by his contemporaries, although none of them had the foresight to envisage new physics to fit the data.
Moderator Response:[DB] You are certainly welcome to your own opinions, but this venue is science-based and to be taken seriously here you will need to up your game and start providing citations to the peer-reviewed published evidence that you feel supports your contentions. Otherwise it will be assumed that you are simply making things up, AKA, sloganeering.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit off-topic posts or make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
Sloganeering snipped. -
indy222 at 09:39 AM on 9 November 2019Modelling the permafrost carbon feedback
It's too bad this important work has not gotten any more commentary. I am using the MacDougall et al work as a starting point to estimate atmospheric CO2 and temperatures for public presentations and for my climate science students.
The new CMIP6 models are have half their models above ECS=5C, and the work of Friedrich et al 2016 also shows interglacials have ECS=4.9C. And, a nice review paper by von der Heydt in 2016 also shows convincingly that researchers see that ECS is higher in hotter background climates. This all spells a very bad situation of ECS=5C should be our base case and 3C a tail-on-the-optimistic side now. With 2.3% of permafrost carbon emerging as methane and a ~doubling of GWP that results, then the CO2e that then ends up on the MacDougall plots go up to 800 ppm by 2300, and more if the new radiative forcings calculated for methane (better short wavelength calcs) are to be accepted. This all suggests that even if we shut off all human emissions in 2050, we still cook ourselves at over 8C, sooner rather than later in the next two centuries. An 8C world is not survivable except for a minority of today's population, and most of today's other species too. GeoEngineering on a massive scale seems absolutely required, regardless of the moral hazard. Is there something more hopeful that I'm missing??
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Philippe Chantreau at 08:24 AM on 9 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
A.L "1,470 year lunar induced climate cycle."The chief hypotheses on D.O. events and Bond events involve long term ocean currents and deep mixing events, or fresh water injections, not the moon. Whereas I found a wealth of papers involving oceanic processes, I could not find one mentioning a lunar component.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI3437.1
https://authors.library.caltech.edu/16947/1/Eisenman2009p6441Paleoceanography.pdf
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117310351
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michael sweet at 04:19 AM on 9 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alao Liwry
Are you suggesting that the floor of the ocean flexes several feet every day? How come no one else has noticed this movement? Please provide a citation for this astonishung claim.
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Alan Lowey at 04:04 AM on 9 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
I can't stand sloppy unscientific sentences such as "The sun and moon pull on the oceans" as described in the beginning of this topic. They do NOT! It's their gravitational interaction across the entire body of Mother Earth which changes the shape of the planet. It's this bulge which flexes the lithosphere. The bulge of the ocean floor pushes the ocean from beneath to create our daily tides. The person who wrote the intro doesn't understand the very basic nature of how our tides work.
Moderator Response:[DB] You are certainly welcome to your own opinions, but this venue is science-based and to be taken seriously here you will need to up your game and start providing citations to the peer-reviewed published evidence that you feel supports your contentions. Otherwise it will be assumed that you are simply making things up, AKA, sloganeering.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit off-topic posts or make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Alan Lowey at 03:37 AM on 9 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
I see on the SkS team that Klaus Flemlose of Denmark has a keen interest in storm surges, sea level and the tides. I'd love to hear his probability on my assertation that the tidal bulge of the Earth is increasing at a faster rate in the northern hemisphere compared to the southern hemisphere. It could be relatively easily tested using satellite technology imo.
Moderator Response:[DB] You are off-topic for the subject of this post. Many threads here deal with SLR (use the Search function to find one more appropriate).
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Eclectic at 02:48 AM on 9 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
Alan Lowey @31 ,
With all due respect Alan, your views on the science of climate are seriously out of touch with the mainstream science of the past 200 years.
The 1000+ year cyclic lunar control of climate; your intuitive & mind-bogglingly vast over-assessment of the relatively minuscule energies involved in tidal sloshing of oceans; your darkly mysterious allusions to "gravity and New Physics" . . . all point to a major problem you have, which you seem unaware of.
Please educate yourself on the mainstream science. Please consider the possibility that the thousands of expert scientists (working over many decades) may know something that you do not know.
However, if you feel that Urania, the Muse of astronomy and science, has uniquely gifted you with new scientific revelations . . . then you are welcome to present the evidence [repeat: evidence ] in the appropriate threads here at SkS. Probably not this thread.
Possibly you have failed to notice it ~ but there have been several "contrarian" scientific challenges to mainstream climate science, and published in mainstream journals, too . . . but each and every such challenge has eventually fallen flat on its face, because it clashed with the evidence.
<"Perhaps you need a new thread for people like me?"> Well, in a manner of speaking, there is such a new section, but it was found necessary to host it on its own separate website. You will find it under the title: WattsUpWithThat. WUWT is keen to publicize any and all ideas which run counter to the established evidence-based science, despite those ideas clashing with each other. The disadvantage of it, is that you will find yourself rubbing shoulders with a mutually-argumentative bunch of commenters, half of whom are in complete denial of basic physics (especially the physics of CO2 and other "greenhouse" gasses) . . . and most of the other half suffer from anger issues & extremist political views (as well). Still, you might find yourself enjoying such a website, if you don't mind its Bizarro tendencies.
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Alan Lowey at 23:40 PM on 8 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
The second paragraph at the top of this topic should be amended because it is a false statement. I'm a strong believer in the AGW climate emergency but also believe in the 1,470 year lunar induced climate cycle but via new physics. This view IS scientific in principle. I studied Simulation Modelling at MSc level at Brunel.
The third paragraph is dismissive of the significance of hemisperical heat distribution. The extremes of rapid climate change recorded in ice age data should be of deep concern to modern day climate change. The see-saw effect doesn't have a well defined mechanism in standard climate modeling. A new physics lunar model can explain this with increasing tidal energy being greater in the northern hemisphere compared to the southern. I have a background in Astronomy and obtained my BSc degree from the University attended by Sir Patrick Moore.
Perhaps you need a new section for people like me?
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John Mason at 21:04 PM on 8 November 2019Ynyslas, western Wales – a place made by climate change
I worked at the Ynyslas Visitor Centre in the last few weeks of the season in 2018 after someone handed in their notice - I was parachuted in at the sharp end of managing a shop, visitors, accounts and so on, but we were let out every day to patrol the site. That was great. It wasn't a bad office at all!
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Daniel Bailey at 11:26 AM on 8 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
That the climate changed naturally before the impacts of humans became the dominant forcing of climate is uncontentious.
That the impacts of human activities are now the dominant forcing of climate is equally uncontentious, from a scientific basis.
Scientists have evaluated all natural forcings and factors capable of driving the Earth's climate to change, including the slow, long-term changes in the Earth’s movement around the Sun (Milankovitch cycles or orbital forcings), and it is only when the anthropogenic forcing is included that the observed and ongoing warming since 1750 can be explained.
Natural vs Anthropogenic Climate Forcings, per the NCA4, Volume 2, in 2018:
Scientists have also quantified the warming caused by human activities since preindustrial times and compared that to natural temperature forcings.
Changes in the sun's output falling on the Earth from 1750-2011 are about 0.05 Watts/meter squared.
By comparison, human activities from 1750-2011 warm the Earth by about 2.83 Watts/meter squared (AR5, WG1, Chapter 8, section 8.3.2, p. 676).
In the early 20th century human activities caused about one-third of the observed warming and most of the rest was due to low volcanic activity. Since about 1950 it's all humans and their activities.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0555.1
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.522Further, the detection of the human fingerprint in the observed tropospheric warming caused by the increase in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases like CO2 has reached 6-sigma levels of accuracy.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0424-x
There have been many, many scientific studies over the past 175 years examining the properties of greenhouse gases, the radiative physics of carbon dioxide and the role it plays in the Earth’s atmosphere. One of the most comprehensive, recent and openly-accessible is the US 4th National Climate Assessment (Volume 1, released in 2017 and Volume 2, released in 2018). You can download the whole thing or by chapter:
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/FAQ’s:
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/appendix-5/#section-1In short, human activities (primarily via the human burning of fossil fuels) have warmed the globe, which in turn are impacting the Earth’s climate.
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scaddenp at 11:20 AM on 8 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
"If an average intelligence person can't get a straight factual answer from the smart people, why should I change my mind?"
It is much easier to give a straight answer if we have a straight question, not one that is loaded with misunderstanding and misconceptions.
Denying that world is warming in face of the obvious evidence is extremely odd, but people do it, requiring incredibly convolted leaps of reasoning.
However, the attribution of global warming to particular cause is a complex process and require somewhat more study because climate and radiative physics are not exactly high school level topics.
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:12 AM on 8 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
mzimbal7, what "massive cold air mass" are you refering to?
The Arctic fall started quite a while ago and had time to produce cold air, which can then travel to a variety of places. How cold that air is compared to seasonal averages is another story.
The Danish Meteorological institute has sea surface temperatures, with animations:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php
They also have mean temperatures north of 80 degrees lattitude, with archives:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
The anomaly (departure from mean) is available here:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php
They also have a lot of information on Greenland.
NSIDC also keeps records on a variety of data on the Arctic.
NOAA has a lot of data readily available, updates, analyses, etc, here is an example:
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scaddenp at 08:26 AM on 8 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
You might like to go to the thread here, read the article and tell us (on that thread) which statements you disagree with and why, preferrably references papers or data to back you position.
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scaddenp at 08:23 AM on 8 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
I didnt assume - I pointed out that studies show that politics is the best predictor. It may not apply to you.
"Most of your info says the Arctic caps have melted." Point me to one place on this site where it says the arctic cap has melted. I believe that this is a strawman argument. No reasonable discussion can be had if you choose to misrepresent what is stated. The arctic caps are definitely melting. At lowest, they dropped to around 4m km2 this year, but temperatures are above freezing in high arctic for only about 50-60 days of year. The influx of warm sea water and ice transport are major factors in continuing ice lose.
Temperatures in high arctic are now more than 20C below zero so hardly surprizing it is cold. For information on what it is like in arctic in terms of temperature, seaice etc. I highly recommend the charts on https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/. For why you might be getting more polar air excursions to where you live, try https://skepticalscience.com/jetstream-guide.html
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mzimbal7 at 08:16 AM on 8 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
I would assume that if GW was so obvious and true - a simple common sense answer would be given. If an average intelligence person can't get a straight factual answer from the smart people, why should I change my mind? Just because someone says, "hey some experts say so, just believe them doesn't work for me" What if a president said "If you like your doctor you can keep him" - Why would I automatically trust him. Smart, powerful people can lie too. Proof is in the pudding. BTW - I'm a Libertarian. Nuetral minded. That is why I want facts, not experts opinions that contradict facts, common sense, and laws of nature.
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mzimbal7 at 06:47 AM on 8 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
Why would you assume politics are forming my opinion? My is formed by common sense and the laws of science. You talk relatives term "colder in the Arctic than here in U.S.". I know what temp water freezes at. Most of your info says the Arctic caps have melted. So I would at least assume the air mass would be 32 degrees or higher. Should actually be much higher if its so far above normal up there over this past summer and fall. I won't do what most GW do, that is to just take it by faith. Most GW people take it by faith "by what some scientist say". The facts and common sense don't line up in their favor, so they must do this. I think an assumption you make is correct. Most Liberal minded people automatically accept the view of GW. Fits the agenda of the left. Again, please explain Thermodynamics and how something at least 32 degrees can cause a massive Cold Air mass to set up, expecially so early in the season. The exact opposite shouls occur logically. HOT doesn't produce COLD.
Moderator Response:[DB] Please refrain from making political statements, per this site's Comments Policy.
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scaddenp at 06:32 AM on 8 November 2019Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2019
Being very "warm" in the Arctic, means it is much warmer than the long term average. In some cases, annual average is 3-4C above normal. (If that doesnt sound much, that is like the temperature difference between New York and Memphis). However, while -6C is definitely warmer than -9C, it is still freaking cold. Anything coming out of the Arctic is much colder than air below it. Perhaps it would be better if you told us what informs your opinion that "there is no man made Global Warming"?
Studies show that political beliefs are best predictor of peoples attitudes on climate change which is mind-boggling if you think about it. Facts dont matter? However, from experience here, if accepting the science around climate change is offensive to your political and tribal values, then no facts or studies are going to change your mind. If you want to embrace critical thinking instead motivated reasoning, think what information/developments would cause you to change your mind. Please dont insist on something that science says is impossible (like temperature rising uniformly with CO2 concentration). It seems that for most people however, opinions are formed by "my tribe doesnt go for that" followed by uncritically swallowing misinformation to helps them justify that claim. Fortunately, science doesnt work like that.
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